Association between Statin use and Incident Peripheral Artery Disease According to Race, Age, and Presence of Depression in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is associated with high morbidity and mortality and has been commonly described as a coronary heart disease equivalent. Statin medications are recommended for primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) among other indications. Therefore, understanding the longitudinal relationship of incident PAD is necessary to inform future research on how to prevent the disease. Depression complicates CVD patients' ability to properly adhere to their medications, yet the effect of depression on the relationship between statin use and incident PAD is understudied. People with PAD have a higher incidence of depressive symptoms than people without PAD. Black American and Hispanic populations are disproportionately affected by both PAD and depression yet research on the modifying effect of either race or depression on the relationship between statin use and onset of PAD is minimal. While statin utilization is highest for ages 75-84 years, there is minimal evidence of favorable risk-benefit balance. Consequently, in this project, we examined the relationship between statin use and incident PAD and whether this relationship is modified by race/ethnicity, depressive symptoms, or age.

METHODS

We used data on participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis from visit 1 (2000) through study visit 6 (2020) who had three separate measurements of the ankle-brachial index (ABI) taken at visit 1, visit 3, and visit 5. Incident PAD was defined as 1) incident lower extremity amputation or revascularization or 2) ABI less than 0.90 coupled with ABI decrease greater than 0.15 over the follow-up period. Statin use was noted on the study visit prior to incident PAD diagnosis while depressive symptoms were measured at exam 1, visit 3, and visit 5. Propensity score matching was implemented to create balance between the participants in the two treatment groups, that is, statin-treated and statin-untreated groups, to reduce the problem of confounding by indication. Propensity scores were calculated using multivariate logistic regression model to estimate the probability of receiving statin treatment. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to investigate the relationship between time-dependent statin use as well as other risk factors with incident PAD, overall and stratified by 1) race, 2) depression status, and 3) age.

RESULTS

A total of 4,210 participants were included in the final matched analytic cohort. There were 810 incident cases (19.3%) of PAD that occurred over an average (mean) of 11.3 years (SD = 5.7) of follow-up time. In the statin-treated group, and with an average follow-up time of 12.5 years (SD = 5.6), there were 281 cases (13.4%) of incident PAD with the average follow-up time of 10.1 years (SD = 5.5), whereas in the statin-untreated group, there were 531 cases (25.2%) (P < 0.001). Results demonstrate a lower risk of PAD event in the statin-treated group compared to the untreated group (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.45, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.33-0.62) over the span of 18.5 years. The interactions between 1) depression and 2) race with statin use for incident PAD were not significant. However, other risk factors which were significant included Black American race that had approximately 30% lower hazard of PAD compared to non-Hispanic White (HR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.58-0.84); age-stratified models were also fitted, and stain use was still a significant treatment factor for ages 45-54 (HR = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.33-0.63), 55-64 (HR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.46-0.79), and 65-74 years (HR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.48-0.78) but not for ages 75-84 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Statin use was associated with a decreased risk of incident PAD for those under the age of 75 years. Neither race nor depression significantly modified the relationship between statin use and incident PAD; however, the risk of incident PAD was lower among Black Americans. These findings highlight that the benefit of statin may wane for those over the age of 75 years. Findings also suggest that statin use may not be compromised in those living with depression.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Discordance of patient-reported outcome measures with objectively assessed walking decline in peripheral artery disease

OBJECTIVE

Among people with peripheral artery disease (PAD), perceived change in walking difficulty over time, compared with people without PAD, is unclear. Among people reporting no change in walking difficulty over time, differences in objectively measured change in walking performance between people with and without PAD are unknown.

METHODS

A total of 1289 participants were included. Eight hundred seventy-four participants with PAD (aged 71.1 ± 9.1 years) were identified from noninvasive vascular laboratories and 415 without PAD (aged 69.9 ± 7.6 years) were identified from people with normal vascular laboratory testing or general medical practices in Chicago. The Walking Impairment Questionnaire and 6-minute walk were completed at baseline and 1-year follow-up. The Walking Impairment Questionnaire assessed perceived difficulty walking due to symptoms in the calves or buttocks on a Likert scale (range, 0-4). Symptom change was determined by comparing difficulty reported at 1-year follow-up to difficulty reported at baseline.

RESULTS

At 1-year follow-up, 31.9% of participants with and 20.6% of participants without PAD reported walking difficulty that was improved (P < .01), whereas 41.2% vs 55%, respectively, reported walking difficulty that was unchanged (P < .01). Among all reporting no change in walking difficulty, participants with PAD declined in 6-minute walk, whereas participants without PAD improved (-10 vs +15 meters; mean difference, -25; 95% confidence interval, -38 to -13; P < .01).

CONCLUSIONS

Most people with PAD reported improvement or no change in walking difficulty from calf or buttock symptoms at one-year follow-up. Among all participants who perceived stable walking ability, those with PAD had significant greater declines in objectively measured walking performance, compared with people without PAD.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke Across the US From 1990 to 2019

Importance

Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability in the US. Accurate and updated measures of stroke burden are needed to guide public health policies.

Objective

To present burden estimates of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in the US in 2019 and describe trends from 1990 to 2019 by age, sex, and geographic location.

Design, Setting, and Participants

An in-depth cross-sectional analysis of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study was conducted. The setting included the time period of 1990 to 2019 in the US. The study encompassed estimates for various types of strokes, including all strokes, ischemic strokes, intracerebral hemorrhages (ICHs), and subarachnoid hemorrhages (SAHs). The 2019 Global Burden of Disease results were released on October 20, 2020.

Exposures

In this study, no particular exposure was specifically targeted.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary focus of this analysis centered on both overall and age-standardized estimates, stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs per 100 000 individuals.

Results

In 2019, the US recorded 7.09 million prevalent strokes (4.07 million women [57.4%]; 3.02 million men [42.6%]), with 5.87 million being ischemic strokes (82.7%). Prevalence also included 0.66 million ICHs and 0.85 million SAHs. Although the absolute numbers of stroke cases, mortality, and DALYs surged from 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized rates either declined or remained steady. Notably, hemorrhagic strokes manifested a substantial increase, especially in mortality, compared with ischemic strokes (incidence of ischemic stroke increased by 13% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 14.2%-11.9%]; incidence of ICH increased by 39.8% [95% UI, 38.9%-39.7%]; incidence of SAH increased by 50.9% [95% UI, 49.2%-52.6%]). The downturn in stroke mortality plateaued in the recent decade. There was a discernible heterogeneity in stroke burden trends, with older adults (50-74 years) experiencing a decrease in incidence in coastal areas (decreases up to 3.9% in Vermont), in contrast to an uptick observed in younger demographics (15-49 years) in the South and Midwest US (with increases up to 8.4% in Minnesota).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study, the declining age-standardized stroke rates over the past 3 decades suggest progress in managing stroke-related outcomes. However, the increasing absolute burden of stroke, coupled with a notable rise in hemorrhagic stroke, suggests an evolving and substantial public health challenge in the US. Moreover, the significant disparities in stroke burden trends across different age groups and geographic locations underscore the necessity for region- and demography-specific interventions and policies to effectively mitigate the multifaceted and escalating burden of stroke in the country.

Aspirin and Cardiovascular Risk in Individuals With Elevated Lipoprotein(a): The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Effective therapies for reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in people with elevated lipoprotein(a) are lacking, especially for primary prevention. Because of the potential association of lipoprotein(a) with thrombosis, we evaluated the relationship between aspirin use and CVD events in people with elevated lipoprotein(a).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used data from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a prospective cohort study of individuals free of baseline cardiovascular disease. Due to potential confounding by indication, we matched aspirin users to nonusers using a propensity score based on CVD risk factors. We then evaluated the association between aspirin use and coronary heart disease (CHD) events (CHD death, nonfatal myocardial infarction) stratified by baseline lipoprotein(a) level (threshold of 50 mg/dL) using Cox proportional hazards models with adjustment for CVD risk factors. After propensity matching, the study cohort included 2183 participants, including 1234 (57%) with baseline aspirin use and 423 (19%) with lipoprotein(a) >50 mg/dL. Participants with lipoprotein(a) >50 mg/dL had a higher burden of CVD risk factors, more frequent aspirin use (61.7% versus 55.3%, P=0.02), and higher rate of incident CHD events (13.7% versus 8.9%, P<0.01). Aspirin was associated with a significant reduction in CHD events among those with elevated lipoprotein(a) (hazard ratio, 0.54 [95% CI, 0.32-0.94]; P=0.03). Those with lipoprotein(a) >50 mg/dL and aspirin use had similar CHD risk as those with lipoprotein(a) ≤50 mg/dL regardless of aspirin use.

CONCLUSIONS

Aspirin use was associated with a significantly lower risk for CHD events in participants with lipoprotein(a) >50 mg/dL without baseline CVD. The results of this observational propensity-matched study require confirmation in studies with randomization of aspirin use.

Disparities in Diagnosis, Treatment, and Outcomes of Peripheral Artery Disease: JACC Scientific Statement

Disparities by sex, race, socioeconomic status, and geography exist in diagnosis, treatment, and outcomes for people with lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD). PAD prevalence is similar in men and women, but women have more atypical symptoms and undergo lower extremity revascularization at older ages compared to men. People who are Black have an approximately 2-fold higher prevalence of PAD, compared to people who are White and have more atypical symptoms, greater mobility loss, less optimal medical care, and higher amputation rates. Although fewer data are available for other races, people with PAD who are Hispanic have higher amputation rates than White people. Rates of amputation also vary by geography in the United States, with the highest rates of amputation in the southeastern United States. To improve PAD outcomes, intentional actions to eliminate disparities are necessary, including clinician education, patient education with culturally appropriate messaging, improved access to high-quality health care, science focused on disparity elimination, and health policy changes.

Nutritional Avocado Intervention Improves Physical Activity Measures in Hispanic/Latino Families: A Cluster RCT

Introduction

Nutrition and physical activity are key components for the prevention of cardiovascular disease. There remains a paucity of trial data on the effect of specific nutritional interventions on physical activity and sedentary time. One question is how a common nutrient-dense food such as avocado may impact physical activity and sedentary time in Hispanic/Latino families, a group that reports the lowest levels of physical activity.

Design

This is a 6-month clustered RCT.

Setting/participants

Seventy-two families (235 individuals) who identified as Hispanic/Latino were enrolled through the San Ysidro Health Center (San Diego, CA) between April 2017 and June 2018.

Intervention

After a 2-week run-in period, 35 families were randomized to the intervention arm (14 avocados/family/week), and 37 families were assigned to the control arm (3 avocados/family/week).

Main outcome measures

Linear mixed-effects models were used to assess changes in physical activity (MET minutes per week) between the groups during the 6-month trial. Secondary outcomes included sedentary time (minutes/week), BMI, and systolic and diastolic blood pressures.

Results

An adherence goal of >80% was achieved for both arms. Total mean physical activity increased by 2,197 MET minutes per week more in the intervention group (p<0.01) than in the control group, driven by between-group differences in moderate (p<0.01) versus vigorous (p=0.06) physical activity. After accounting for longitudinal repeated measures per participant and nested family effects, total adult physical activity remained significantly higher in the intervention than in the control group (+1,163 MET minutes per week on average per participant), with a significant intervention interaction term (p<0.01). There were no significant changes in sedentary time, BMI, or blood pressure.

Conclusions

Higher allocation of avocados was associated with significantly higher physical activity and no adverse changes in BMI or blood pressure, suggesting that this nutritional intervention may have beneficial pleiotropic effects.Trial registration: This study is registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02903433.

Serum reactivity to citrullinated protein/peptide antigens and left ventricular structure and function in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

BACKGROUND

Antibodies to citrullinated protein antigens have been linked to altered left ventricular (LV) structure and function in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Serum reactivity to several citrullinated protein/peptide antigens has been identified in RA, which are detectable years before RA onset and in individuals who may never develop RA. Among community-living individuals without heart failure (HF) at baseline in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), we investigated associations between serum reactivity to citrullinated protein/peptide antigens, LV mass, LV ejection fraction (LVEF), and incident HF.

METHODS

Among 1232 MESA participants, we measured serum reactivity to 28 different citrullinated proteins/peptides using a multiplex bead-based array. Each antibody was defined as having extremely high reactivity (EHR) if >95th percentile cut-off in MESA. Number of EHR antibody responses to citrullinated protein/peptide antigens were summed for each participant (range 0-28). LV mass(g) and LVEF(%) were measured on cardiac MRI. Associations between EHR antibodies and LV mass and LVEF were evaluated using linear regression. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate associations between EHR antibodies and incident HF during 11 years of follow-up, adjusting for age, gender, race/ethnicity, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, use of anti-hypertensive medications, self-reported arthritis, IL-6, body surface area, and estimated glomerular filtration rate.

RESULTS

Mean age was 65±10, 50% were female, 40% were White, 21% were Black, 26% were Hispanic/Latino, and 14% were Chinese. Twenty-seven percent of MESA participants had extremely high reactivity to ≥ 1 citrullinated protein/peptide antigen. In fully adjusted analysis, every additional EHR antibody was significantly associated with 0.1% lower LVEF (95% CI: -0.17%, -0.02%). No association was observed with LV mass (β per additional EHR antibody) = 0.13±0.15 (p = 0.37)). Neither the presence nor number of EHR antibodies was associated with incident HF during follow-up (HR per additional EHR antibody = 1.008 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.05)).

CONCLUSION

Greater number of extremely highly reactive antibodies was associated with lower LVEF, but not with LV mass or incident HF. Thus, serum reactivity to citrullinated protein/peptide antigens was associated with subtle subclinical changes in myocardial contractility, but the significance in relation to clinically apparent HF is uncertain.

Home-Based Walking Exercise and Supervised Treadmill Exercise in Patients With Peripheral Artery Disease: An Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis

Importance

Few people with lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD) participate in supervised treadmill exercise covered by the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services. In people with PAD, the benefits of home-based walking exercise, relative to supervised exercise, remain unclear.

Objective

To study whether home-based walking exercise improves 6-minute walk (6MW) more than supervised treadmill exercise in people with PAD (defined as Ankle Brachial Index ≤0.90).

Data Sources

Data were combined from 5 randomized clinical trials of exercise therapy for PAD using individual participant data meta-analyses, published from 2009 to 2022.

Study Selection

Of the 5 clinical trials, 3 clinical trials compared supervised treadmill exercise to nonexercise control (N = 370) and 2 clinical trials compared an effective home-based walking exercise intervention to nonexercise control (N = 349).

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Individual participant-level data from 5 randomized clinical trials led by 1 investigative team were combined. The 5 randomized clinical trials included 3 clinical trials of supervised treadmill exercise and 2 effective home-based walking exercise interventions.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Change in 6MW distance, maximum treadmill walking distance, and Walking Impairment Questionnaire at 6-month follow-up. The supervised treadmill exercise intervention consisted of treadmill exercise in the presence of an exercise physiologist, conducted 3 days weekly for up to 50 minutes per session. Home-based walking exercise consisted of a behavioral intervention in which a coach helped participants walk for exercise in or around home for up to 5 days per week for 50 minutes per session.

Results

A total of 719 participants with PAD (mean [SD] age, 68.8 [9.5] years; 46.5% female) were included (349 in a home-based exercise clinical trial and 370 in a supervised exercise trial). Compared with nonexercise control, supervised treadmill exercise was associated with significantly improved 6MW by 32.9 m (95% CI, 20.6-45.6; P < .001) and home-based walking exercise was associated with significantly improved 6MW by 50.7 m (95% CI, 34.8-66.7; P < .001). Compared with supervised treadmill exercise, home-based walking exercise was associated with significantly greater improvement in 6MW distance (between-group difference: 23.8 m [95% CI, 3.6, 44.0; P = .02]) but significantly less improvement in maximum treadmill walking distance (between-group difference:-132.5 m [95% CI, -192.9 to -72.1; P < .001]).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this individual participant data meta-analyses, compared with supervised exercise, home-based walking exercise was associated with greater improvement in 6MW in people with PAD. These findings support home-based walking exercise as a first-line therapy for walking limitations in PAD.

Lipoprotein(a) and the pooled cohort equations for ASCVD risk prediction: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is an independent risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) but is not included in the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE). We aimed to assess how well the PCE predict 10-year event rates in individuals with elevated Lp(a), and whether the addition of Lp(a) improves risk prediction.

METHODS

We compared observed versus PCE-predicted 10-year ASCVD event rates, stratified by Lp(a) level and ASCVD risk category using Poisson regression, and evaluated the association between Lp(a) > 50 mg/dL and ASCVD risk using Cox proportional hazards models in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). We evaluated the C-index and net reclassification improvement (NRI) with addition of Lp(a) to the PCE.

RESULTS

The study population included 6639 individuals (20%, n = 1325 with elevated Lp(a)). The PCE accurately predicted 10-year event rates for individuals with elevated Lp(a) with observed event rates falling within predicted limits. Elevated Lp(a) was associated with increased risk of CVD events overall (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.00-1.60), particularly in low (HR 2.45, 95% CI 1.40-4.31), and high-risk (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.02-1.96) individuals. Continuous NRI (95% CI) with the addition of Lp(a) to the PCE for CVD was 0.0963 (0.0158-0.1953) overall, and 0.2999 (0.0876, 0.5525) among low-risk individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

The PCE performs well for event rate prediction in individuals with elevated Lp(a). However, Lp(a) is associated with increased CVD risk, and the addition of Lp(a) to the PCE improves risk prediction, particularly among low-risk individuals. These results lend support for increasing use of Lp(a) testing for risk assessment.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Lipoprotein(a) and coronary artery calcium in comparison with other lipid biomarkers: The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring is often used for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk stratification in individuals with elevated lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)].

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate associations between Lp(a) and baseline CAC (volume/density) and CAC progression compared to other lipid biomarkers.

METHODS

We utilized data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a cohort study of individuals without clinical ASCVD, excluding statin users. We evaluated the associations between Lp(a), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), triglycerides, total cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, and non-HDL-C with baseline CAC and annual CAC progression using multivariable ordinal regression with adjustment for ASCVD risk factors. Analyses were also stratified by median age.

RESULTS

In 5,597 participants (2,726 at median 9.5-year follow-up), Lp(a) was not associated with baseline CAC volume or density and was modestly associated with volume progression (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.03-1.21). However, other biomarkers were positively associated with baseline volume and volume progression (LDL-C: OR 1.26, 95% CI: 1.19-1.33 and OR 1.22, 95% CI: 1.15-1.30, respectively), except HDL-C which was inversely associated. LDL-C, total cholesterol and non-HDL-C were inversely associated with baseline density. In participants <62 years of age, Lp(a) was modestly associated with baseline CAC volume (OR 1.10, 95% CI: 1.00-1.20) and volume progression (OR 1.16 95% CI: 1.04-1.30).

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to other lipid biomarkers, Lp(a) was not associated with baseline CAC volume or density and was only modestly associated with volume progression. Our findings suggest that Lp(a) is not as robustly associated with CAC as other lipid biomarkers.

Association of Coronary Artery Calcium Density and Volume With Predicted Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk and Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in South Asians: The Mediators of Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America (MASALA) Study

Individuals of South Asian (SA) ancestry are predisposed to a higher risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Coronary artery calcium (CAC) volume and density can identify coronary plaque characteristics unique to SA that may provide important prognostic information to identify high risk individuals beyond traditional CAC scores. We used data from the Mediators of Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America (MASALA). CAC density and volume were assessed according to established protocols. ASCVD risk was estimated using the pooled cohort equations (PCE). Multivariable-adjusted linear regression models were used to study the association between the PCE and advanced CAC measures, and between cardiovascular risk factors and CAC density and volume. Our analyses included 1,155 participants (mean age 57 (SD 9) years, 52% men) with information on advanced CAC measures. After multivariable-adjustment, the PCE was associated with both CAC density (β 0.24, 95% CI 0.12,0.35) and CAC volume (β 0.43, 95% CI 0.38,0.48). High-density lipoprotein cholesterol was directly associated with CAC density while waist circumference was inversely associated with it. Body mass index, hypertension status, statin use, diabetes, and HOMA-IR were all directly associated with CAC volume. Estimated ASCVD risk was associated with both CAC volume and density. Different cardiometabolic risk factors are associated with CAC density and volume. Future longitudinal studies are required to demonstrate the interrelationship of advanced CAC measures and cardiovascular risk factors with incident ASCVD outcomes.

Abstract P677: Association of Antibodies to Citrullinated Protein Antigens (ACPA) With Coronary Artery Calcium and Abdominal Aorta Calcium in a Multi-Ethnic Community-Dwelling Population

Background: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have double the risk of cardiovascular (CV) events and greater extent of coronary artery calcium (CAC) compared to the general population. Antibodies to citrullinated protein antigens (ACPA) have been linked to CAC in patients with RA; and RA-related autoimmunity has been associated with CAC in Black women without RA. ACPA are detectable years before RA onset and in some individuals who do not develop RA. Given the association between vascular calcification and CV events in the general population, we investigated associations between ACPA and coronary and abdominal aorta calcification (AAC).

Methods: In a randomly selected subset of 1968 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), we measured ACPA using a multiplex array of 28 different ACPA. Each ACPA was defined as positive if >95 th percentile cut-off in MESA. The number of (+) ACPA were summed for each participant (range 0-28). We measured AAC and CAC using computed tomography scans. We evaluated associations between number of ACPA, individual ACPA and AAC and CAC using multivariable linear regression, adjusting for covariates and testing for interactions with gender and race/ethnicity.

Results: Among 1828 MESA participants with complete data, average age was 65(10); were 50% female, 40% White, 13% Chinese, 21% Black, 26% Hispanic/Latino and 27% positive (+) for at least one ACPA. Among ACPA(+) participants, median number of ACPA was 1 (1, 6) and ranged from 1-28 ACPA. Number of ACPA was neither significantly associated with CAC severity (p=0.06) nor AAC severity (p=0.48). These associations did not differ by gender or race. However, several individual ACPA were associated with CAC and AAC. In particular, for every SD higher citrullinated ApoA antibody concentration (anti-cit-ApoA), CAC severity was 0.15 (0.07)% higher (p=0.03); and AAC severity was 0.07 (0.04) % lower (p=0.08) in fully adjusted analysis. Associations between anti-cit-ApoA and AAC severity were modified by gender (p interaction =0.02), where in women for every SD higher anti-cit-ApoA, AAC severity was 0.15 (0.06)% lower (p=0.007); and in men, AAC severity was 0.03 (0.05)% higher, although this association was not statistically significant (p=0.55). For every SD higher citrullinated Fibrinogen antibody (anti-cit-Fibrinogen) concentration, CAC severity was 0.14 (0.07) % higher (p=0.05); and AAC severity was 0.10 (0.04) % lower (p=0.01) in fully adjusted analysis. There was no significant interaction between anti-cit-Fibrinogen and gender or race.

Conclusion: In a community-dwelling population without RA, ACPA were associated with higher CAC severity and lower AAC severity, independent of traditional CV risk factors. Because we did not expect the inverse association between ACPA and AAC severity, continued research is needed to better understand mechanisms explaining this association.

Abstract P667: Association of Number of Calcified Coronary Arteries and Cardiovascular Outcomes Stratified by Calcification Volume: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Background: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Data suggests number of vessels with CAC independently improves risk prediction but impact by CAC volume remains unknown.

Methods: Using data from 3256 MESA participants with CAC>0 and clinical follow-up, we evaluated the association between number of arteries with CAC and risk for coronary heart disease (CHD), myocardial infarction (MI), and CVD events stratified by CAC volume (above/below median) using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models.

Results: Mean age was 63.3 years (SD 9.5) with 1363 (41.9%) women. There were 1079 (33%) with single-vessel, 822 (25%) with 2-vessel, and 1355 (42%) with 3-4 vessel CAC. Median CAC volume was 84.7 [IQR 24.5, 267.2] mm 3 . CAC in 3-4 vessels was independently associated with higher CHD risk ( Figure ) compared to 1-vessel (HR 2.01, 95% CI 1.1-3.6; p=0.018) and 2-vessels (HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.0-2.8; p=0.04) for lower CAC volumes, with similar findings for MI and CVD outcomes ( Table ).

Conclusions: Number of arteries with CAC independently increases risk for ASCVD events only for those with lower CAC volumes.

Abstract P665: Thoracic Aorta Calcification and Left Ventricular Structure and Function Relevant to Heart Failure: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Background: Aortic stiffness promotes left ventricular (LV) remodeling and dysfunction. Thoracic aorta calcification (TAC) contributes to aortic stiffness, but it remains unclear how TAC presence, volume, and density impact LV structure and function. We tested the hypothesis that TAC presence and higher volume is associated with increased LV mass index, decreased LV end-diastolic volume (LVEDV) index, and impaired mid-wall circumferential strain (Ecc).

Methods: We evaluated 1,693 participants from the MESA who underwent chest CT and cardiac MRI from 2010 to 2012. We used linear regression models to determine cross-sectional associations between the presence, volume, and density of TAC with LV mass index, LVEDV index, and Ecc. Each pair of predictor and outcome variables underwent three model adjustments: (1) age, gender, and race/ethnicity; (2) Model 1 plus education level, height, weight, physical activity, sedentary behavior, smoking status, eGFR, SBP, DBP, anti-HTN medication use, total cholesterol/HDL ratio, statin use, and diabetes; (3) Model 2 plus coronary artery calcium (CAC) presence and volume. TAC volume and density were evaluated separately, then jointly in the same models.

Results: The mean age was 69 years (SD 9) and 53% were female, while 39% were White, 26% Black, 21% Hispanic/Latino, 15% Chinese. TAC was present in 1,518 (90%) participants. TAC volume and density were highly correlated (r=0.75) with respective median 213 (25%ile, 75%ile: 36, 800) mm 3 and mean 350 (SD 110) Hounsfield Units. LV mass index, LVEDV index, and Ecc had respective means of 65 g/m 2 (SD 14), 120 mL/m 2 (SD 31), and -18.2% (SD 2.8). After full adjustment (Model 3 without density), a 10% increase in TAC volume was associated with a 1.8% multiplicative higher Ecc (i.e., less negative Ecc) (95% CI 0.2-3.4%, p=0.04) reflecting reduced LV systolic and diastolic function. Higher TAC volume was marginally associated with higher LV mass index: a 10% increase in TAC volume was associated with a 5.6% increase (-0.6-11.7%, p=0.08) in Model 2 without density, 13.9% (2.1-25.7%, p=0.03) in Model 2 with density, 3.9% (-2.5-10.4%, p=0.23) in Model 3 without density, and 11.3% (-1.0-23.7%, p=0.08) in Model 3 with density. After adjustments in Models 2 or 3, there were no other significant associations between TAC presence, volume, or density with the outcomes.

Conclusions: Higher TAC volume is associated with impaired Ecc independent of CAC and marginally associated with higher LV mass index. These results suggest that the extent of TAC may influence LV remodeling and thus reduced function.

Coronary Artery Calcium Density and Cardiovascular Events by Volume Level: The MESA

BACKGROUND

The Agatston coronary artery calcium (CAC) score provides robust cardiovascular disease risk prediction but upweights plaque area by a density factor. Density, however, has been shown to be inversely associated with events. Using CAC volume and density separately improves risk prediction, but it is unclear how to apply this method clinically. We aimed to evaluate the association between CAC density and cardiovascular disease across the spectrum of CAC volume to better understand how to incorporate these metrics into a single score.

METHODS

We performed an analysis of MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) participants with detectable CAC to evaluate the association between CAC density and events by level of CAC volume using multivariable Cox regression models.

RESULTS

In a cohort of 3316 participants, there was a significant interaction (P<0.001) between CAC volume and density for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk (myocardial infarction, CHD death, resuscitated cardiac arrest). Models using CAC volume and density resulted in improvement in the C-index (0.703, SE 0.012 versus 0.687, SE 0.013) and a significant net reclassification improvement (0.208 [95% CI, 0.102-0.306]) compared with the Agatston score for CHD risk prediction. Density was significantly associated with lower CHD risk at volumes ≤130 mm3 (hazard ratio, 0.57 per unit of density [95% CI, 0.43-0.75]), but the inverse association at volumes >130 mm3 was not significant (hazard ratio, 0.82 per unit of density [95% CI, 0.55-1.22]).

CONCLUSIONS

The lower risk for CHD associated with higher CAC density varied by level of volume, and volume ≤130 mm3 is a potentially clinically useful cut point. Further study is needed to integrate these findings into a unified CAC scoring method.

Barriers to participation in supervised exercise therapy reported by people with peripheral artery disease

OBJECTIVE

This study identified barriers to participation in supervised exercise therapy covered by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), reported by people with lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD).

METHODS

People with PAD participating in research studies of walking impairment due to PAD in the Chicagoland area were asked to complete a questionnaire between March 15, 2019, and July 12, 2022, assessing their experience and attitudes about supervised exercise therapy. Participants were identified using mailed postcards to people aged 50 and older in Chicagoland, from medical centers in Chicago, and using bus and train advertisements. The questionnaire was developed based on focus group feedback from people with PAD.

RESULTS

Of 516 participants with PAD approached, 489 (94.8%) completed the questionnaire (mean age: 71.0 years [standard deviation: 8.7], mean ankle-brachial index: 0.71 [standard deviation: 0.25]; 204 [41.7%] women and 261 [53.4%] Black). Of the 489 participants, 416 (85.1%) reported that their physician had never prescribed or recommended supervised exercise therapy. Overall, 357 (73.2%) reported willingness to travel three times weekly to the medical center for supervised exercise participation. However, of these, 214 (59.9%) reported that they were unwilling or unable to pay the $11 per exercise session copay required for supervised exercise covered by CMS. Of 51 people with PAD who reported prior participation in supervised exercise, only 5 (9.8%) completed the 12 weeks of supervised exercise therapy covered by CMS and 29 (56.9%) completed 6 or fewer weeks. Of 131 (26.8%) unwilling to travel three times weekly to a center for supervised exercise, the most common reasons for unwillingness to participate were "too time-consuming" (55.0%), "too inconvenient" (45.8%), and "lack of interest in treadmill exercise" (28.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately 2 to 4 years after CMS began covering supervised exercise for PAD, most people with PAD in this study from a large urban area had not participated in supervised exercise therapy. Of those who participated, most completed fewer than half of the sessions covered by CMS. The required CMS copayment was a common barrier to supervised exercise participation by people with PAD.

Coronary calcium density in relation to coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease in adults with diabetes or metabolic syndrome: the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) density is inversely associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We examined this relation in those with diabetes mellitus (DM) or metabolic syndrome (MetS).

METHODS

We studied 3,818 participants with non-zero CAC scores from the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and classified them as DM, MetS (without DM) or neither DM/MetS. Risk factor-adjusted CAC density was calculated and examined in relation to incident CHD and CVD events over a median follow-up of 15 years among these three disease groups.

RESULTS

Adjusted CAC density was 2.54, 2.61 and 2.69 among those with DM, MetS or neither DM/MetS. Hazard ratios (HRs) for CHD per 1 SD increase of CAC density was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.72-1.16), 0.70 (95% CI: 0.56-0.87) and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.66-0.95) for those with DM, MetS or neither DM/MetS groups and were 0.77 (95% CI: 0.64-0.94), 0.83 (95% CI: 0.70-0.99) and 0.82 (95% CI: 0.71-0.95) for CVD, respectively. Adjustment for CAC density increased the HRs of CAC volume for CHD/CVD events. Compared to prediction models with or without single CAC measures, c-statistics of models with CAC volume and density were the highest ranging 0.67-0.72.

CONCLUSION

CAC density is lower among patients with DM or MetS than those with neither DM/MetS and is inversely associated with future CHD/CVD risk among them. Including CAC density in risk assessment among those with MetS may improve prediction of CHD and CVD.

Biomarkers of Vitamin D Metabolism and Hip and Vertebral Fracture Risk: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Studies on associations between biomarkers of vitamin D metabolism and fracture risk have focused predominantly on White or elderly populations and may not be generalizable to relatively healthy multiethnic populations. We tested associations of total 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D), the ratio of 24,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 to 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (vitamin D metabolite ratio, VDMR), parathyroid hormone (PTH), and fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23) concentrations measured in serum with risk of hip and vertebral fractures in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D2 and D3 and 24,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 were measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). The study cohort of 6466 participants was without clinically apparent cardiovascular disease and was 39% White, 27% Black, 22% Hispanic, and 12% Chinese. The mean age was 62 years, and 53% were female. There were 128 hip and vertebral fractures over a mean follow-up of 14.2 years. 25(OH)D, the VDMR, PTH, and FGF-23 were not significantly associated with fracture risk after adjustment for demographics, diabetes, smoking, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, medication use, albuminuria, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Principal component analysis did not suggest differences in linear combinations of 25(OH)D, the VDMR, PTH, and FGF-23 between participants who experienced fractures and those who did not. We did not observe significant interaction between race and ethnicity and any biomarker of vitamin D metabolism on fracture risk. In conclusion, none of the four serum biomarkers of vitamin D metabolism investigated showed a significant association with fracture risk in relatively healthy multiethnic populations. © 2022 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Cholesterol mass efflux capacity and coronary artery calcium: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

We assessed the cross-sectional and longitudinal relationships of high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-mediated cholesterol mass efflux capacity (CMEC) with coronary artery calcium (CAC) score and CAC density. CMEC was measured in 1626 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants in samples obtained between 2000 and 2002 as part of two nested case-control studies, one with cases of incident cardiovascular disease and the other with cases of carotid plaque progression by ultrasound. Cardiac CT examinations for the presence of CAC were performed at baseline and at two additional examinations. CAC scores (Agatston and volume) and density scores (for those with positive CAC) were calculated. Multivariable linear regression modeling per SD increment of CMEC was used to estimate the associations of CMEC with each of these CAC measures. We found no association between higher CMEC and either lower CAC scores or a higher CAC density. We also found no association between higher CMEC and progression of any of these CAC measures. These findings suggest that HDL-mediated cholesterol efflux may be associated with cardiovascular risk via mechanisms unrelated to burden of calcified plaque.

Genetic and clinical determinants of abdominal aortic diameter: genome-wide association studies, exome array data and Mendelian randomization study

Progressive dilation of the infrarenal aortic diameter is a consequence of the ageing process and is considered the main determinant of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). We aimed to investigate the genetic and clinical determinants of abdominal aortic diameter (AAD). We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies in 10 cohorts (n = 13 542) imputed to the 1000 Genome Project reference panel including 12 815 subjects in the discovery phase and 727 subjects [Partners Biobank cohort 1 (PBIO)] as replication. Maximum anterior-posterior diameter of the infrarenal aorta was used as AAD. We also included exome array data (n = 14 480) from seven epidemiologic studies. Single-variant and gene-based associations were done using SeqMeta package. A Mendelian randomization analysis was applied to investigate the causal effect of a number of clinical risk factors on AAD. In genome-wide association study (GWAS) on AAD, rs74448815 in the intronic region of LDLRAD4 reached genome-wide significance (beta = -0.02, SE = 0.004, P-value = 2.10 × 10-8). The association replicated in the PBIO1 cohort (P-value = 8.19 × 10-4). In exome-array single-variant analysis (P-value threshold = 9 × 10-7), the lowest P-value was found for rs239259 located in SLC22A20 (beta = 0.007, P-value = 1.2 × 10-5). In the gene-based analysis (P-value threshold = 1.85 × 10-6), PCSK5 showed an association with AAD (P-value = 8.03 × 10-7). Furthermore, in Mendelian randomization analyses, we found evidence for genetic association of pulse pressure (beta = -0.003, P-value = 0.02), triglycerides (beta = -0.16, P-value = 0.008) and height (beta = 0.03, P-value < 0.0001), known risk factors for AAA, consistent with a causal association with AAD. Our findings point to new biology as well as highlighting gene regions in mechanisms that have previously been implicated in the genetics of other vascular diseases.

Effect of Telmisartan on Walking Performance in Patients With Lower Extremity Peripheral Artery Disease: The TELEX Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Patients with lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD) have reduced lower extremity perfusion, impaired lower extremity skeletal muscle function, and poor walking performance. Telmisartan (an angiotensin receptor blocker) has properties that reverse these abnormalities.

Objective

To determine whether telmisartan improves 6-minute walk distance, compared with placebo, in patients with lower extremity PAD at 6-month follow-up.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Double-blind, randomized clinical trial conducted at 2 US sites and involving 114 participants. Enrollment occurred between December 28, 2015, and November 9, 2021. Final follow-up occurred on May 6, 2022.

Interventions

The trial randomized patients using a 2 × 2 factorial design to compare the effects of telmisartan plus supervised exercise vs telmisartan alone and supervised exercise alone and to compare telmisartan alone vs placebo. Participants with PAD were randomized to 1 of 4 groups: telmisartan plus exercise (n = 30), telmisartan plus attention control (n = 29), placebo plus exercise (n = 28), or placebo plus attention control (n = 27) for 6 months. The originally planned sample size was 240 participants. Due to slower than anticipated enrollment, the primary comparison was changed to the 2 combined telmisartan groups vs the 2 combined placebo groups and the target sample size was changed to 112 participants.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was the 6-month change in 6-minute walk distance (minimum clinically important difference, 8-20 m). The secondary outcomes were maximal treadmill walking distance; Walking Impairment Questionnaire scores for distance, speed, and stair climbing; and the 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey physical functioning score. The results were adjusted for study site, baseline 6-minute walk distance, randomization to exercise vs attention control, sex, and history of heart failure at baseline.

Results

Of the 114 randomized patients (mean age, 67.3 [SD, 9.9] years; 46 were women [40.4%]; and 81 were Black individuals [71.1%]), 105 (92%) completed 6-month follow-up. At 6-month follow-up, telmisartan did not significantly improve 6-minute walk distance (from a mean of 341.6 m to 343.0 m; within-group change: 1.32 m) compared with placebo (from a mean of 352.3 m to 364.8 m; within-group change: 12.5 m) and the adjusted between-group difference was -16.8 m (95% CI, -35.9 m to 2.2 m; P = .08). Compared with placebo, telmisartan did not significantly improve any of the 5 secondary outcomes. The most common serious adverse event was hospitalization for PAD (ie, lower extremity revascularization, amputation, or gangrene). Three participants (5.1%) in the telmisartan group and 2 participants (3.6%) in the placebo group were hospitalized for PAD.

Conclusions and Relevance

Among patients with PAD, telmisartan did not improve 6-minute walk distance at 6-month follow-up compared with placebo. These results do not support telmisartan for improving walking performance in patients with PAD.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02593110.

Abstract P139: Association Of Thoracic Aorta Calcification And Aortic Arch Stiffness: The Multi-ethnic Study Of Atherosclerosis

Background: Arterial stiffness (AS) is a robust risk factor for HTN and CVD. It remains unclear how thoracic aortic calcification (TAC) presence, volume, and density relate to AS in the aortic arch. Improved understanding of central AS may provide insight to future mechanistic approaches to prevent and control CVD.

Methods: We evaluated 1,385 participants from MESA Exam 5 with TAC data throughout the thoracic aorta via Chest CT and pulse wave velocity (PWV) as a measure of AS across the aortic arch via MRI. We used linear regression models to assess cross-sectional associations of TAC presence, volume, and density with aortic arch PWV with adjustment for 1) age, sex, and race; and 2) age, sex, race, BMI, diabetes, estimated glomerular filtration rate, HTN-medication use, SBP, DBP, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein ratio, smoking status, CAC volume, CAC density, education, physical activity, and sedentary behavior.

Results: Participants were a mean age of 69 years (SD 9) [717 (52%) female; 509 (37%) White, 359 (26%) Black, 285 (21%) Hispanic/Latino, and 232 (17%) Chinese]. Calcification was present in 1,263 (91%) and 1,228 (89%) participants in the entire thoracic aorta and aortic arch, respectively, compared to 848 (61%) and 138 (10%) in the descending and ascending aorta segments. Calcium volume in the entire thoracic aorta and aortic arch were highly correlated (r=0.94) with respective means of 866 (SD 1,724) and 564 (1,014) mm 3 . Mean PWV across the aortic arch was 9 m/sec (SD 4). After full adjustment, the presence of aortic arch calcification, compared to no aortic arch calcification, was associated with a 0.76 m/sec higher mean PWV (95% CI: 0.34 - 1.18; p<0.01), while a 1,000 mm 3 increment in aortic arch calcium volume was associated with 0.36 m/sec higher mean PWV (95% CI: 0.08-0.64; p=0.01). Results were similar when calcification in the entire thoracic aorta was the primary predictor variable. Conversely, there were no significant associations between mean or maximum calcium density measures and aortic arch PWV.

Conclusion: TAC is highly prevalent in the thoracic aorta, especially the aortic arch. Calcification presence and higher calcification volume in the thoracic aorta, as well as the aortic arch itself, are associated with greater aortic arch AS.

Associations between Weight-Adjusted Waist Index and Abdominal Fat and Muscle Mass: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

The weight-adjusted waist index (WWI) reflected body compositional changes with aging. This study was to investigate the association of WWI with abdominal fat and muscle mass in a diverse race/ethnic population.

METHODS

Computed tomography (CT) data from 1,946 participants for abdominal fat and muscle areas from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (785 Whites, 252 Asians, 406 African American, and 503 Hispanics) were used. Among them, 595 participants underwent repeated CT. The WWI was calculated as waist circumference (cm) divided by the square root of body weight (kg). The associations of WWI with abdominal fat and muscle measures were examined, and longitudinal changes in abdominal composition measures were compared.

RESULTS

In all race/ethnic groups, WWI was positively correlated with total abdominal fat area (TFA), subcutaneous fat area, and visceral fat area, but negatively correlated with total abdominal muscle area (TMA) and abdominal muscle radiodensity (P<0.001 for all). WWI showed a linear increase with aging regardless of race and there were no significant differences in the WWI distribution between Whites, Asians, and African Americans. In longitudinal analyses, over 38.6 months of follow-up, all abdominal fat measures increased but muscle measures decreased, along with increase in WWI. The more the WWI increased, the more the TFA increased and the more the TMA decreased.

CONCLUSION

WWI showed positive associations with abdominal fat mass and negative associations with abdominal muscle mass, which likely reflects the abdominal compositional changes with aging in a multi-ethnic population.

Higher Arm Versus Lower Arm Systolic Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Outcomes: a Meta-Analysis of Individual Participant Data From the INTERPRESS-IPD Collaboration

Guidelines recommend measuring blood pressure (BP) in both arms, adopting the higher arm readings for diagnosis and management. Data to support this recommendation are lacking. We evaluated associations of higher and lower arm systolic BPs with diagnostic and treatment thresholds, and prognosis in hypertension, using data from the Inter-arm Blood Pressure Difference—Individual Participant Data Collaboration.

Effects of Walking Exercise at a Pace With Versus Without Ischemic Leg Symptoms on Functional Performance Measures in People With Lower Extremity Peripheral Artery Disease: The LITE Randomized Clinical Trial

Background In people with peripheral artery disease, post hoc analyses of the LITE (Low Intensity Exercise Intervention in Peripheral Artery Disease) randomized trial were conducted to evaluate the effects of walking exercise at a pace inducing ischemic leg symptoms on walking velocity and the Short Physical Performance Battery, compared with walking exercise without ischemic leg symptoms and compared with a nonexercising control group. Methods and Results Participants with peripheral artery disease were randomized to: home-based walking exercise that induced ischemic leg symptoms; home-based walking exercise conducted without ischemic leg symptoms; or a nonexercising control group for 12 months. Outcomes were change of walking velocity over 4 m and change of the Short Physical Performance Battery (0-12, with 12=best) at 6- and 12-month follow-up. A total of 264 participants (48% women, 61% Black race) were included. Compared with walking exercise without ischemic symptoms, walking exercise that induced ischemic symptoms improved change in usual-paced walking velocity over 4 m at 6-month (0.056 m/s [95% CI, 0.019-0.094 m/s]; P<0.01) and 12-month follow-up (0.084 m/s [95% CI, 0.049-0.120 m/s]; P<0.01), change in fast-paced of walking velocity over 4 m at 6-month follow-up (P=0.03), and change in the Short Physical Performance Battery at 12-month follow-up (0.821 [95% CI, 0.309-1.334]; P<0.01). Compared with control, walking exercise at a pace inducing ischemic symptoms improved change in usual-paced walking velocity over 4 m at 6-month follow-up (0.066 m/s [95% CI, 0.021-0.111 m/s]; P<0.01). Conclusions In people with peripheral artery disease, those who walked for exercise at a comfortable pace without ischemic leg symptoms slowed their walking speed during daily life and worsened the Short Physical Performance Battery score, a potentially harmful effect, compared with people who walked for exercise at a pace inducing ischemic leg symptoms. Compared with a control group who did not exercise, home-based walking exercise at a pace inducing ischemic leg symptoms significantly improved change of walking velocity over 4 m at 6-month follow-up, but this benefit did not persist at 12-month follow-up. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02538900.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Global Epidemiological Transition in Cardiovascular Diseases: Unrecognised Impact of Endemic Infections on Peripheral Artery Disease

An epidemiological transition in the prevalence of peripheral artery disease (PAD) is taking place especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where an ageing population and adoption of western lifestyles are associated with an increase in PAD. We discuss the limited evidence which suggests that infection, potentially mediated by inflammation, may be a risk factor for PAD, and show by means of an ecological analysis that country-level prevalence of the major endemic infections of HIV, tuberculosis and malaria are associated with the prevalence of PAD. While further research is required, we propose that scientists and health authorities pay more attention to the interplay between communicable and non-communicable diseases, and we suggest that limiting the occurrence of endemic infections might have some effect on slowing the epidemiological transition in PAD.

Coronary artery calcium incidence and changes using direct plaque measurements: The MASALA study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We aimed to identify predictors of change in direct measures of coronary artery calcium (CAC) volume and density in South Asian participants.

METHODS

We used data from participants in the Mediators of Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America (MASALA) study with prevalent CAC and direct measures of CAC by serial computed tomography (CT) exams (2010-2013, 2016-2018). We examined the distribution of incident CAC volume and peak density, as well as progression and identified risk factors for progression of change in volume and density in multivariable models.

RESULTS

The study cohort consisted of 102 participants with incident CAC and 285 with CAC progression. CAC volume and density were highest, and incident CAC was most common in the left anterior descending artery (LAD). The greatest progression in volume was in the right coronary artery and the greatest change in density was in the left main. In linear regression models for CAC progression adjusted for baseline density, volume, risk factors, smoking (β +190.1, p = 0.02), baseline volume (β +0.24 per mm³, p < 0.01), and scan interval (β +0.15 per day, p = 0.01) were associated with change in total volume whereas Lp(a) (β +0.81 per mg/dL, p = 0.03), exercise (β +0.19 per 10 MET-min/week, p = 0.01), and baseline volume (β +0.15 per mm³, p < 0.01) and density (β -0.55 per unit, p < 0.01) were associated with change in total density.

CONCLUSIONS

In this South Asian cohort, smoking was associated with CAC volume progression, while Lp(a) and exercise were associated with progression of peak CAC density.

Evaluation of the Value of Waist Circumference and Metabolomics in the Estimation of Visceral Adipose Tissue

Visceral adipose tissue (VAT) is a strong prognostic factor for cardiovascular disease and a potential target for cardiovascular risk stratification. Because VAT is difficult to measure in clinical practice, we estimated prediction models with predictors routinely measured in general practice and VAT as outcome using ridge regression in 2,501 middle-aged participants from the Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity study, 2008-2012. Adding waist circumference and other anthropometric measurements on top of the routinely measured variables improved the optimism-adjusted R2 from 0.50 to 0.58 with a decrease in the root-mean-square error (RMSE) from 45.6 to 41.5 cm2 and with overall good calibration. Further addition of predominantly lipoprotein-related metabolites from the Nightingale platform did not improve the optimism-corrected R2 and RMSE. The models were externally validated in 370 participants from the Prospective Investigation of Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS, 2006-2009) and 1,901 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA, 2000-2007). Performance was comparable to the development setting in PIVUS (R2 = 0.63, RMSE = 42.4 cm2, calibration slope = 0.94) but lower in MESA (R2 = 0.44, RMSE = 60.7 cm2, calibration slope = 0.75). Our findings indicate that the estimation of VAT with routine clinical measurements can be substantially improved by incorporating waist circumference but not by metabolite measurements.

Associations of cardiac injury biomarkers with risk of peripheral artery disease: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

INTRODUCTION

We investigated the associations of high-sensitivity cardiac Troponin T (hs-cTnT) and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels with risk of developing clinical peripheral artery disease (PAD) or a low ankle-brachial index (ABI).

METHODS

Hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP were measured in 6692 and 5458 participants respectively without baseline PAD between 2000 and 2002 in the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. A significant number also had repeat biomarker measurement between 2004 and 2005. Incident clinical PAD was ascertained through 2017. Incident low ABI, defined as ABI <0.9 and decline of ≥0.15 from baseline, was assessed among 5920 eligible individuals who had an ABI >0.9 at baseline and at least one follow-up ABI measurement 3-10 years later. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression modeling were used to determine the association of these biomarkers with clinical PAD and low ABI, respectively.

RESULTS

Overall, 121 clinical PAD and 118 low ABI events occurred. Adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics, each log unit increment in hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP was associated with a 30% (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.3, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 1.6) and 50% (HR) 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2, 1.8) higher risk of clinical PAD respectively. No significant associations were observed for incident low ABI. Change in these biomarkers was not associated with either of the PAD outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT are independently associated with the development of clinical PAD. Further study should determine whether these biomarkers can help to better identify those at higher risk for PAD.

Association of coronary artery calcification and thoracic aortic calcification with incident peripheral arterial disease in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Aims

The association of subclinical atherosclerotic disease in the coronary arteries and thoracic aorta with incident peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is unknown. We investigated the association between coronary artery calcium score (CACs) and thoracic aortic calcium score (TACs) with incident clinical and subclinical PAD.

Methods and results

The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) recruited 6814 men and women aged 45–84 from four ethnic groups who were free of clinical cardiovascular disease at enrolment. Coronary artery calcium score and thoracic aortic calcium score were measured from computed tomography scans. Participants with a baseline ankle-brachial index (ABI) ≤0.90 or &gt;1.4 were excluded. Abnormal ABI was defined as ABI ≤0.9 or &gt;1.4 at follow-up exam. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to test the associations between baseline CACs and TACs with incident abnormal ABI and clinical PAD, respectively. A total of 6409 participants (female: 52.8%) with a mean age of 61 years were analysed. Over a median follow-up of 16.7 years, 91 participants developed clinical PAD. In multivariable analysis, each unit increase in log (CACS + 1) and log (TACs + 1) were associated with 23% and 13% (P &lt; 0.01for both) higher risk of incident clinical PAD, respectively. In 5725 (female: 52.6%) participants with an available follow-up ABI over median 9.2 years, each 1-unit increase in log (CACs + 1) and log (TACs + 1) were independently associated with 1.15-fold and 1.07-fold (P &lt; 0.01for both) higher odds of incident abnormal ABI, respectively.

Conclusion

Higher baseline CACs and TACs predict abnormal ABI and clinical PAD independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and baseline ABI.

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.

METHODS

We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0-13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00-7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8-12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1-6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0-73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0-88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0-55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0-42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0-18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0-7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0-24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0-18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5-3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5-3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57-8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97-3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01-1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7-90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2-62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3-48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7-33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8-41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8-29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4-33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6-23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6-28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4-19·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Lower Extremity Peripheral Artery Disease: Contemporary Epidemiology, Management Gaps, and Future Directions: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association

Lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD) affects >230 million adults worldwide and is associated with increased risk of various adverse clinical outcomes (other cardiovascular diseases such as coronary heart disease and stroke and leg outcomes such as amputation). Despite its prevalence and clinical importance, PAD has been historically underappreciated by health care professionals and patients. This underappreciation seems multifactorial (eg, limited availability of the first-line diagnostic test, the ankle-brachial index, in clinics; incorrect perceptions that a leg vascular disease is not fatal and that the diagnosis of PAD would not necessarily change clinical practice). In the past several years, a body of evidence has indicated that these perceptions are incorrect. Several studies have consistently demonstrated that many patients with PAD are not receiving evidence-based therapies. Thus, this scientific statement provides an update for health care professionals regarding contemporary epidemiology (eg, prevalence, temporal trends, risk factors, and complications) of PAD, the present status of diagnosis (physiological tests and imaging modalities), and the major gaps in the management of PAD (eg, medications, exercise therapy, and revascularization). The statement also lists key gaps in research, clinical practice, and implementation related to PAD. Orchestrated efforts among different parties (eg, health care providers, researchers, expert organizations, and health care organizations) will be needed to increase the awareness and understanding of PAD and improve the diagnostic approaches, management, and prognosis of PAD.

Perceived Versus Objective Change in Walking Ability in Peripheral Artery Disease: Results from 3 Randomized Clinical Trials of Exercise Therapy

Background

In people with lower‐extremity peripheral artery disease, the effects of exercise on patient‐reported outcomes remain unclear.

Methods and Results

Four hundred four people with peripheral artery disease in 3 clinical trials were randomized to exercise (N=205) or a control group (N=199) and completed the 6‐minute walk and the Walking Impairment Questionnaire distance score (score 0–100, 100=best) at baseline and 6‐month follow‐up. Compared with the control group, exercise improved 6‐minute walk distance by +39.8 m (95% CI, 26.8–52.8, P<0.001) and the Walking Impairment Questionnaire distance score by +7.3 (95% CI, 2.4–12.1, P=0.003). In all, 2828 individual Walking Impairment Questionnaire distance score questions were completed at baseline and follow‐up. Among participants who perceived no change in ability to walk 1 or more distances between baseline and follow‐up, 6‐minute walk improved in the exercise group and declined in the control group (+26.8 versus −6.5 m, P<0.001). Among participants who perceived that their walking ability worsened for 1 or more distances between baseline and follow‐up, the 6‐minute walk improved in the exercise group and declined in the control group (+18.4 versus –27.3 m, P<0.001). Among participants who reported worsening calf symptoms at follow‐up, the exercise group improved and the control group declined (+28.9 versus −12.5 m, P<0.01).

Conclusions

In 3 randomized trials, exercise significantly improved the 6‐minute walk distance in people with peripheral artery disease, but many participants randomized to exercise reported no change or decline in walking ability. These findings suggest a significant discrepancy in objectively measured walking improvement relative to perceived walking improvement in people with peripheral artery disease.

Registration Information

clinicaltrials.gov. Identifiers: NCT 00106327, NCT 01408901.

Sleep apnea, coronary artery calcium density and cardiovascular events: results from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

STUDY OBJECTIVES

Evaluate the association between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), coronary artery calcium (CAC) density, and cardiovascular events in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

METHODS

We analyzed 1041 participants with non-zero CAC scores who had polysomnography and CAC density data from the fifth examination of MESA. OSA was defined as apnea-hypopnea index [AHI] ≥ 15 events/hour. Multivariable linear regression models were used to evaluate the independent association between OSA and CAC density. Additionally, we evaluated the impact of OSA on associations of CAC measures with incident CVD events by testing for interaction in Cox proportional hazard regression models.

RESULTS

Our analytical sample was 45% female with a mean age of 70.6 +/- 9 years. Of this sample, 36.7% (n=383/1041) had OSA (AHI≥15). OSA was inversely and weakly associated with CAC density (β= -0.09, 95% CI -0.17 to -0.02, p=0.014) and remained significantly associated after controlling for traditional cardiovascular risk factors (β= -0.08, 95% CI -0.16 to 0, p=0.043). However, this inverse association was attenuated after controlling for BMI (β=-0.05, 95% CI -0.13 to 0.02, p=0.174). The mean follow-up period for CVD events was 13.3 +/- 2.8 years. Additionally, exploratory analysis demonstrated that CAC density was independently and inversely associated with CVD events only in the non-OSA subgroup (AHI≤15) (HR 0.509 [CI 0.323 - 0.801], p=0.0035).

CONCLUSIONS

OSA was associated with lower CAC density, but this association was attenuated by BMI. Further, increased CAC density was associated with a reduced risk of CVD events only in individuals within the non-OSA group in exploratory analysis.

Sustained physical activity in peripheral artery disease: Associations with disease severity, functional performance, health-related quality of life, and subsequent serious adverse events in the LITE randomized clinical trial

This study investigated cross-sectional associations of peripheral artery disease (PAD) severity (defined by the ankle-brachial index (ABI)) and amounts of daily sustained physical activity (PA) (defined as > 100 activity counts per minute lasting 5 consecutive minutes or more). This study also investigated associations of amounts of daily sustained PA with 6-minute walk (6MW) distance and the Short Form-36 physical functioning domain (SF-36 PF) score in cross-sectional analyses and with serious adverse events (SAEs) in longitudinal analyses of people with PAD. PA was measured continuously for 10 days using a tri-axial accelerometer at baseline in 277 participants with PAD randomized to the LITE clinical trial. In regression analyses, each 0.15 lower ABI value was associated with a 5.67% decrease in the number of daily bouts of sustained PA (95% CI: 3.85-6.54; p < 0.001). Every additional bout of sustained PA per day was associated with a 4.56-meter greater 6MW distance (95% CI: 2.67-6.46; p < 0.0001), and a 0.81-point improvement in SF-36 PF score (95% CI: 0.34-1.28; p < 0.001). Participants with values of daily bouts of sustained PA below the median had higher rates of SAEs during follow-up, compared to participants above the median (41% vs 24%; p = 0.002). In conclusion, among participants with PAD, lower ABI values were associated with fewer bouts of daily sustained PA. A greater number of bouts of daily sustained PA were associated with better 6MW performance and SF-36 PF score, and, in longitudinal analyses, lower rates of SAEs. Clinicaltrials.gov ID: NCT02538900.

Effect of Low-Intensity vs High-Intensity Home-Based Walking Exercise on Walk Distance in Patients With Peripheral Artery Disease: The LITE Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Supervised high-intensity walking exercise that induces ischemic leg symptoms is the first-line therapy for people with lower-extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD), but adherence is poor.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether low-intensity home-based walking exercise at a comfortable pace significantly improves walking ability in people with PAD vs high-intensity home-based walking exercise that induces ischemic leg symptoms and vs a nonexercise control.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Multicenter randomized clinical trial conducted at 4 US centers and including 305 participants. Enrollment occurred between September 25, 2015, and December 11, 2019; final follow-up was October 7, 2020.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants with PAD were randomized to low-intensity walking exercise (n = 116), high-intensity walking exercise (n = 124), or nonexercise control (n = 65) for 12 months. Both exercise groups were asked to walk for exercise in an unsupervised setting 5 times per week for up to 50 minutes per session wearing an accelerometer to document exercise intensity and time. The low-intensity group walked at a pace without ischemic leg symptoms. The high-intensity group walked at a pace eliciting moderate to severe ischemic leg symptoms. Accelerometer data were viewable to a coach who telephoned participants weekly for 12 months and helped them adhere to their prescribed exercise. The nonexercise control group received weekly educational telephone calls for 12 months.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was mean change in 6-minute walk distance at 12 months (minimum clinically important difference, 8-20 m).

RESULTS

Among 305 randomized patients (mean age, 69.3 [SD, 9.5] years, 146 [47.9%] women, 181 [59.3%] Black patients), 250 (82%) completed 12-month follow-up. The 6-minute walk distance changed from 332.1 m at baseline to 327.5 m at 12-month follow-up in the low-intensity exercise group (within-group mean change, -6.4 m [95% CI, -21.5 to 8.8 m]; P = .34) and from 338.1 m to 371.2 m in the high-intensity exercise group (within-group mean change, 34.5 m [95% CI, 20.1 to 48.9 m]; P < .001) and the mean change for the between-group comparison was -40.9 m (97.5% CI, -61.7 to -20.0 m; P < .001). The 6-minute walk distance changed from 328.1 m at baseline to 317.5 m at 12-month follow-up in the nonexercise control group (within-group mean change, -15.1 m [95% CI, -35.8 to 5.7 m]; P = .10), which was not significantly different from the change in the low-intensity exercise group (between-group mean change, 8.7 m [97.5% CI, -17.0 to 34.4 m]; P = .44). Of 184 serious adverse events, the event rate per participant was 0.64 in the low-intensity group, 0.65 in the high-intensity group, and 0.46 in the nonexercise control group. One serious adverse event in each exercise group was related to study participation.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients with PAD, low-intensity home-based exercise was significantly less effective than high-intensity home-based exercise and was not significantly different from the nonexercise control for improving 6-minute walk distance. These results do not support the use of low-intensity home-based walking exercise for improving objectively measured walking performance in patients with PAD.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02538900.

Clinical characteristics and response to supervised exercise therapy of people with lower extremity peripheral artery disease

BACKGROUND

Among people with lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD), little is known about variation in response to supervised exercise therapy (SET). Clinical characteristics associated with greater responsiveness to SET have not been identified.

METHODS

Data from participants with PAD in two randomized clinical trials comparing SET vs nonexercising control were combined. The exercise intervention consisted of three times weekly supervised treadmill exercise. The control groups received lectures on health-related topics.

RESULTS

Of 309 unique participants randomized (mean age, 67.9 years [standard deviation, 9.3 years]; 132 [42.7%] women; 185 [59.9%] black), 285 (92%) completed 6-month follow-up. Compared with control, those randomized to SET improved 6-minute walk distance by 35.6 meters (95% confidence interval, 21.4-49.8; P < .001). In the 95 (62.1%) participants who attended at least 70% of SET sessions, change in 6-minute walk distance varied from -149.4 to +356.0 meters. Thirty-four (35.8%) had no 6-minute walk distance improvement. Among all participants, age, sex, race, body mass index, prior lower extremity revascularization, and other clinical characteristics did not affect the degree of improvement in 6-minute walk distance after SET relative to the control group. Participants with 6-minute walk distance less than the median of 334 meters at baseline had greater percentage improvement in 6-minute walk distance compared with those with baseline 6-minute walk distance above the median (+20.5% vs +5.3%; P for interaction = .0107).

CONCLUSIONS

Among people with PAD, substantial variability exists in walking improvement after SET. Shorter 6-minute walk distance at baseline was associated with greater improvement after SET, but other clinical characteristics, including age, sex, prior lower extremity revascularization, and disease severity, did not affect responsiveness to exercise therapy.

Burden of Neurological Disorders Across the US From 1990-2017: A Global Burden of Disease Study

Question

What is the current burden of neurological disorders in the US by states, and what are the temporal trends (from 1990 to 2017)?

Findings

Systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study shows that, in 2017, the 3 most burdensome neurological disorders in the US were stroke, Alzheimer disease and other dementias, and migraine. The burden of individual neurological disorders varied moderately to widely by states (a 1.2-fold to 7.5-fold difference), and the absolute numbers of incident, prevalent, and fatal cases and disability-adjusted life-years of neurological disorders (except for traumatic brain injury incidence; spinal cord injury prevalence; meningitis prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years; and encephalitis disability-adjusted life-years) across all US states increased from 1990 to 2017.

Meaning

A large and increasing number of people have various neurological disorders in the US, with significant variation in the burden of and trends in neurological disorders across the US states, and the reasons for these geographic variations need to be explored further.

Importance

Accurate and up-to-date estimates on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (burden) of neurological disorders are the backbone of evidence-based health care planning and resource allocation for these disorders. It appears that no such estimates have been reported at the state level for the US.

Objective

To present burden estimates of major neurological disorders in the US states by age and sex from 1990 to 2017.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This is a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of major neurological disorders were derived from the GBD 2017 study of the 48 contiguous US states, Alaska, and Hawaii. Fourteen major neurological disorders were analyzed: stroke, Alzheimer disease and other dementias, Parkinson disease, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, migraine, tension-type headache, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injuries, brain and other nervous system cancers, meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus.

Exposures

Any of the 14 listed neurological diseases.

Main Outcome and Measure

Absolute numbers in detail by age and sex and age-standardized rates (with 95% uncertainty intervals) were calculated.

Results

The 3 most burdensome neurological disorders in the US in terms of absolute number of DALYs were stroke (3.58 [95% uncertainty interval [UI], 3.25-3.92] million DALYs), Alzheimer disease and other dementias (2.55 [95% UI, 2.43-2.68] million DALYs), and migraine (2.40 [95% UI, 1.53-3.44] million DALYs). The burden of almost all neurological disorders (in terms of absolute number of incident, prevalent, and fatal cases, as well as DALYs) increased from 1990 to 2017, largely because of the aging of the population. Exceptions for this trend included traumatic brain injury incidence (−29.1% [95% UI, −32.4% to −25.8%]); spinal cord injury prevalence (−38.5% [95% UI, −43.1% to −34.0%]); meningitis prevalence (−44.8% [95% UI, −47.3% to −42.3%]), deaths (−64.4% [95% UI, −67.7% to −50.3%]), and DALYs (−66.9% [95% UI, −70.1% to −55.9%]); and encephalitis DALYs (−25.8% [95% UI, −30.7% to −5.8%]). The different metrics of age-standardized rates varied between the US states from a 1.2-fold difference for tension-type headache to 7.5-fold for tetanus; southeastern states and Arkansas had a relatively higher burden for stroke, while northern states had a relatively higher burden of multiple sclerosis and eastern states had higher rates of Parkinson disease, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine and tension-type headache, and meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus.

Conclusions and Relevance

There is a large and increasing burden of noncommunicable neurological disorders in the US, with up to a 5-fold variation in the burden of and trends in particular neurological disorders across the US states. The information reported in this article can be used by health care professionals and policy makers at the national and state levels to advance their health care planning and resource allocation to prevent and reduce the burden of neurological disorders.

Distribution of calcium volume, density, number, and type of coronary vessel with calcified plaque in South Asians in the US and other race/ethnic groups: The MASALA and MESA studies

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

South Asians (SA) experience disproportionately higher rates of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events than non-Hispanic whites (NHW) and several other Asian groups. The coronary artery calcium (CAC) Agatston score may not capture the unique characteristics of coronary plaque in SA. We therefore evaluated the prevalence and patterns of advanced CAC measures (specific coronary vessel involvement, CAC volume and density) in SA versus other race/ethnicities.

METHODS

We combined data from the Mediators of Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America (MASALA) and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) cohorts. We used multivariable-adjusted linear regression models to compare advanced CAC measures between SA and other ethnicities.

RESULTS

Our analyses included 7,625 individuals (810 SA, 2,622 whites, 1,893 African Americans, 1,496 Hispanics, 803 Chinese Americans) with mean (SD) age 62 (10) years and 48% men. In adjusted analyses, compared to NHW, SA had lower overall CAC volume [beta coefficient (95% CI)] [-0.46 (-0.62,-0.29)] but higher overall CAC density [0.14 (0.11,0.18)]. These trends were similar when SA were compared to non-whites (Hispanics, Chinese Americans, and African Americans). SA had higher overall [0.07 (0.03,0.12)] and right coronary artery [0.09 (0.03,0.16)] CAC density compared to non-whites, while CAC volume was not significantly different between these two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

SA have lower CAC volume compared to NHW but similar compared to non-whites. Overall CAC density is higher among SA compared to NHW and non-whites. Future longitudinal studies of ASCVD events are required to confirm the prognostic significance of these findings among SA.