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Azimaraghi O, Rudolph MI, Luedeke CM, Ramishvili T, Jaconia GD, Scheffenbichler FT, Chambers TA, Karaye IM, Eikermann M, Chao J, Jackson WM. Association of dexmedetomidine use with haemodynamics, postoperative recovery, and cost in paediatric anaesthesia: a hospital registry study. Br J Anaesth 2024:S0007-0912(24)00147-8. [PMID: 38631942 DOI: 10.1016/j.bja.2024.03.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2023] [Revised: 03/15/2024] [Accepted: 03/22/2024] [Indexed: 04/19/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dexmedetomidine utilisation in paediatric patients is increasing. We hypothesised that intraoperative use of dexmedetomidine in children is associated with longer postanaesthesia care unit length of stay, higher healthcare costs, and side-effects. METHODS We analysed data from paediatric patients (aged 0-12 yr) between 2016 and 2021 in the Bronx, NY, USA. We matched our cohort with the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project-Kids' Inpatient Database (HCUP-KID). RESULTS Among 18 104 paediatric patients, intraoperative dexmedetomidine utilisation increased from 51.7% to 85.7% between 2016 and 2021 (P<0.001). Dexmedetomidine was dose-dependently associated with a longer postanaesthesia care unit length of stay (adjusted absolute difference [ADadj] 19.7 min; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 18.0-21.4 min; P<0.001, median length of stay of 122 vs 98 min). The association was magnified in children aged ≤2 yr undergoing short (≤60 min) ambulatory procedures (ADadj 33.3 min; 95% CI: 26.3-40.7 min; P<0.001; P-for-interaction <0.001). Dexmedetomidine was associated with higher total hospital costs of USD 1311 (95% CI: USD 835-1800), higher odds of intraoperative mean arterial blood pressure below 55 mm Hg (adjusted odds ratio [ORadj] 1.27; 95% CI: 1.16-1.39; P<0.001), and higher odds of heart rate below 100 beats min-1 (ORadj 1.32; 95% CI: 1.21-1.45; P<0.001), with no preventive effects on emergence delirium requiring postanaesthesia i.v. sedatives (ORadj 1.67; 95% CI: 1.04-2.68; P=0.034). CONCLUSIONS Intraoperative use of dexmedetomidine is associated with unwarranted haemodynamic effects, longer postanaesthesia care unit length of stay, and higher costs, without preventive effects on emergence delirium.
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Affiliation(s)
- Omid Azimaraghi
- Department of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA
| | - Maíra I Rudolph
- Department of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA; University of Cologne, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital Cologne, Department for Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Germany
| | - Can M Luedeke
- Department of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA
| | - Tina Ramishvili
- Department of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA
| | - Giselle D Jaconia
- Department of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA
| | - Flora T Scheffenbichler
- Department of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA; Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Ulm University, Ulm, Germany
| | - Terry-Ann Chambers
- Department of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA
| | - Ibraheem M Karaye
- Department of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA; Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY, USA
| | - Matthias Eikermann
- Department of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA; Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany.
| | - Jerry Chao
- Department of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA
| | - William M Jackson
- Department of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA
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Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024:S0140-6736(24)00757-8. [PMID: 38642570 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00757-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2023] [Revised: 03/07/2024] [Accepted: 04/12/2024] [Indexed: 04/22/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. FINDINGS Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021. INTERPRETATION Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Nauman J, Naveed M, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Nazri-Panjaki A, Ndejjo R, Nduaguba SO, Negash H, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Negru SM, Nejadghaderi SA, Nejjari C, Nena E, Nepal S, Ng M, Nggada HA, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen AH, Nguyen DH, Nguyen HTH, Nguyen PT, Nguyen VT, Niazi RK, Nielsen KR, Nigatu YT, Nikolouzakis TK, Nikoobar A, Nikoomanesh F, Nikpoor AR, Ningrum DNA, Nnaji CA, Nnyanzi LA, Noman EA, Nomura S, Noreen M, Noroozi N, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Novotney A, Nri-Ezedi CA, Ntaios G, Ntsekhe M, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nurrika D, Nutor JJ, Oancea B, Obamiro KO, Oboh MA, Odetokun IA, Odogwu NM, O'Donnell MJ, Oduro MS, Ofakunrin AOD, Ogunkoya A, Oguntade AS, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke SR, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Olagunju AT, Olaiya MT, Olatubi MI, Oliveira GMM, Olufadewa II, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oluwafemi YD, Omar HA, Omar Bali A, Omer GL, Ondayo MA, Ong S, Onwujekwe OE, Onyedibe KI, Ordak M, Orisakwe OE, Orish VN, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Ortiz A, Osman WMS, Ostroff SM, Osuagwu UL, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Ouyahia A, Ouyang G, Owolabi MO, Ozten Y, P A MP, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pal PK, Palicz T, Palladino C, Palladino R, Palma-Alvarez RF, Pan F, Pan HF, Pana A, Panda P, Panda-Jonas S, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pangaribuan HU, Panos GD, Panos LD, Pantazopoulos I, Pantea Stoian AM, Papadopoulou P, Parikh RR, Park S, Parthasarathi A, Pashaei A, Pasovic M, Passera R, Pasupula DK, Patel HM, Patel J, Patel SK, Patil S, Patoulias D, Patthipati VS, Paudel U, Pazoki Toroudi H, Pease SA, Peden AE, Pedersini P, Pensato U, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Peprah P, Perdigão J, Pereira M, Peres MFP, Perianayagam A, Perico N, Pestell RG, Pesudovs K, Petermann-Rocha FE, Petri WA, Pham HT, Philip AK, Phillips MR, Pierannunzio D, Pigeolet M, Pigott DM, Pilgrim T, Piracha ZZ, Piradov MA, Pirouzpanah S, Plakkal N, Plotnikov E, Podder V, Poddighe D, Polinder S, Polkinghorne KR, Poluru R, Ponkilainen VT, Porru F, Postma MJ, Poudel GR, Pourshams A, Pourtaheri N, Prada SI, Pradhan PMS, Prakasham TN, Prasad M, Prashant A, Prates EJS, Prieto Alhambra D, PRISCILLA TINA, Pritchett N, Purohit BM, Puvvula J, Qasim NH, Qattea I, Qazi AS, Qian G, Qiu S, Qureshi MF, Rabiee Rad M, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan RA, Radhakrishnan V, Raeisi Shahraki H, Rafferty Q, Raggi A, Raghav PR, Raheem N, Rahim F, Rahim MJ, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MM, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmani AM, Rahmani S, Rahmanian V, Rajaa S, Rajput P, Rakovac I, Ramasamy SK, Ramazanu S, Rana K, Ranabhat CL, Rancic N, Rane A, Rao CR, Rao IR, Rao M, Rao SJ, Rasali DP, Rasella D, Rashedi S, Rashedi V, Rashidi MM, Rasouli-Saravani A, Rasul A, Rathnaiah Babu G, Rauniyar SK, Ravangard R, Ravikumar N, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Rawassizadeh R, Rawlley B, Raza RZ, Razo C, Redwan EMM, Rehman FU, Reifels L, Reiner Jr RC, Remuzzi G, Reyes LF, Rezaei M, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rhee TG, Riaz MA, Ribeiro ALP, Rickard J, Riva HR, Robinson-Oden HE, Rodrigues CF, Rodrigues M, Roever L, Rogowski ELB, Rohloff P, Romadlon DS, Romero-Rodríguez E, Romoli M, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rout HS, Roy N, Roy P, Rubagotti E, Ruela GDA, Rumisha SF, Runghien T, Rwegerera GM, Rynkiewicz A, S N C, Saad AMA, Saadatian Z, Saber K, Saber-Ayad MM, SaberiKamarposhti M, Sabour S, Sacco S, Sachdev PS, Sachdeva R, Saddik B, Saddler A, Sadee BA, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi E, Sadeghian F, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Safaeinejad F, Safi SZ, Sagar R, Saghazadeh A, Sagoe D, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Sahebkar A, Sahoo SS, Sahoo U, Sahu M, Saif Z, Sajid MR, Sakshaug JW, Salam N, Salamati P, Salami AA, Salaroli LB, Saleh MA, Salehi S, Salem MR, Salem MZY, Salimi S, Samadi Kafil H, Samadzadeh S, Samargandy S, Samodra YL, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanna F, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Sarasmita MA, Saraswathy SYI, Saravanan A, Saravi B, Sarikhani Y, Sarkar T, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarode GS, Sarode SC, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Satpathy M, Sayeed A, Sayeed MA, Saylan M, Sayyah M, Scarmeas N, Schaarschmidt BM, Schlaich MP, Schlee W, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schuermans A, Schumacher AE, Schutte AE, Schwarzinger M, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Šekerija M, Selvaraj S, Senapati S, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serban D, Sethi Y, Sha F, Shabany M, Shafaat A, Shafie M, Shah NS, Shah PA, Shah SM, Shahabi S, Shahbandi A, Shahid I, Shahid S, Shahid W, Shahsavari HR, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh A, Shaikh MA, Shakeri A, Shalash AS, Sham S, Shamim MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamshad H, Shamsi MA, Shanawaz M, Shankar A, Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma R, Sharma S, Sharma U, Sharma V, Shastry RP, Shavandi A, Shayan M, Shehabeldine AME, Sheikh A, Sheikhi RA, Shen J, Shetty A, Shetty BSK, Shetty PH, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shiferaw D, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shin YH, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shitaye NA, Shittu A, Shiue I, Shivakumar KM, Shivarov V, Shokraneh F, Shokri A, Shool S, Shorofi SA, Shrestha S, Shuval K, Siddig EE, Silva JP, Silva LMLR, Silva S, Simpson CR, Singal A, Singh A, Singh BB, Singh G, Singh J, Singh NP, Singh P, Singh S, Sinha DN, Sinto R, Siraj MS, Sirota SB, Sitas F, Sivakumar S, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sleet DA, Socea B, Sokhan A, Solanki R, Solanki S, Soleimani H, Soliman SSM, Song S, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Spartalis M, Spearman S, Sreeramareddy CT, Srivastava VK, Stanaway JD, Stanikzai MH, Stark BA, Starnes JR, Starodubova AV, Stein C, Stein DJ, Steinbeis F, Steiner C, Steinmetz JD, Steiropoulos P, Stevanović A, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Stortecky S, Subramaniyan V, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sun HZ, Sun J, Sundström J, Sunkersing D, Sunnerhagen KS, Swain CK, Szarpak L, Szeto MD, Szócska M, Tabaee Damavandi P, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei SM, Tabatabaei Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Tabish M, TADAKAMADLA JYOTHI, Tadakamadla SK, Taheri Abkenar Y, Taheri Soodejani M, Taiba J, Takahashi K, Talaat IM, Talukder A, Tampa M, Tamuzi JL, Tan KK, Tandukar S, Tang H, Tang HK, Tarigan IU, Tariku MK, Tariqujjaman M, Tarkang EE, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Tavangar SM, Taveira N, Tefera YM, Temsah MH, Temsah RMH, Teramoto M, Tesler R, Teye-Kwadjo E, Thakur R, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Tharwat S, Thayakaran R, Thomas N, Thomas NK, Thomson AM, Thrift AG, Thum CCC, Thygesen LC, Tian J, Tichopad A, Ticoalu JHV, Tillawi T, Tiruye TY, Titova MV, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Toriola AT, Torre AE, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran JT, Tran NM, Trico D, Tromans SJ, Truyen TTTT, Tsatsakis A, Tsegay GM, Tsermpini EE, Tumurkhuu M, Tung K, Tyrovolas S, Uddin SMN, Udoakang AJ, Udoh A, Ullah A, Ullah I, Ullah S, Ullah S, Umakanthan S, Umeokonkwo CD, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Unsworth CA, Upadhyay E, Urso D, Usman JS, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, Valizadeh R, Van de Velde SM, Van den Eynde J, Varga O, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Vasic M, Vaziri S, Vellingiri B, Venketasubramanian N, Verghese NA, Verma M, Veroux M, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Villafañe JH, Villanueva GI, Vinayak M, Violante FS, Viskadourou M, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vo B, Vollset SE, Vongpradith A, Vos T, Vujcic IS, Vukovic R, Wafa HA, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang C, Wang N, Wang S, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Waqas M, Ward P, Wassie EG, Watson S, Watson SLW, Weerakoon KG, Wei MY, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Westerman R, Whisnant JL, Wiangkham T, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Wilandika A, Wilkerson C, Willeit P, Wilson S, Wojewodzic MW, Woldegebreal DH, Wolf AW, Wolfe CDA, Wondimagegene YA, Wong YJ, Wongsin U, Wu AM, Wu C, Wu F, Wu X, Wu Z, Xia J, Xiao H, Xie Y, Xu S, Xu WD, Xu X, Xu YY, Yadollahpour A, Yamagishi K, Yang D, Yang L, Yano Y, Yao Y, Yaribeygi H, Ye P, Yehualashet SS, Yesiltepe M, Yesuf SA, Yezli S, Yi S, Yigezu A, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yip P, Yismaw MB, Yismaw Y, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, You Y, Younis MZ, Yousefi Z, Yu C, Yu Y, Yuh FH, Zadey S, Zadnik V, Zafari N, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zaman SB, Zamora N, Zand R, Zangiabadian M, Zar HJ, Zare I, Zarrintan A, Zeariya MGM, Zeinali Z, Zhang H, Zhang J, Zhang J, Zhang L, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao H, Zhong C, Zhou J, Zhu B, Zhu L, Ziafati M, Zielińska M, Zitoun OA, Zoladl M, Zou Z, Zuhlke LJ, Zumla A, Zweck E, Zyoud SH, Wool EE, Murray CJL. Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024:S0140-6736(24)00367-2. [PMID: 38582094 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00367-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Revised: 02/15/2024] [Accepted: 02/22/2024] [Indexed: 04/08/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Bourne RRA, Jonas JB, Friedman D, Nangia V, Bron A, Tapply I, Fernandes AG, Cicinelli MV, Arrigo A, Leveziel N, Resnikoff S, Taylor HR, Sedighi T, Bikbov MM, Braithwaite T, Cheng CY, Congdon N, Del Monte MA, Ehrlich JR, Fricke T, Furtado JM, Gazzard G, George R, Hartnett ME, Kahloun R, Kempen JH, Khairallah M, Khanna RC, Kim JE, Lansingh VC, Leasher J, Naidoo KS, Nowak M, Pesudovs K, Peto T, Ramulu P, Topouzis F, Tsilimbaris M, Wang YX, Wang N, Flaxman S, Bourne RRA, Jonas JB, Casson RJ, Friedman DS, Nangia V, Bron AM, Tapply I, Fernandes AG, Cicinelli MV, Leveziel N, Briant PS, Vos T, Resnikoff S, Abate YH, Abate MD, Dolatabadi ZA, Abdollahi M, Aboagye RG, Abu-Gharbieh E, Aburuz S, Adnani QES, Aghamiri S, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad D, Ahmadieh H, Ahmadzadeh H, Ahmed A, Alfaar AS, Alinia C, Almidani L, Amu H, Androudi S, Anil A, Arabloo J, Areda D, Ashraf T, Bagherieh S, Baltatu OC, Baran MF, Barrow A, Bashiri A, Bayileyegn NS, Bazvand F, Berhie AY, Bhatti JS, Bikbov M, Birck MG, Bitra VR, Bozic MM, Braithwaite T, Burkart K, Bustanji Y, Butt ZA, Cenderadewi M, Chattu VK, Coberly K, Dadras O, Dai X, Dascalu AM, Dastiridou A, Devanbu VGC, Dhimal M, Diaz D, Do THP, Do TC, Dziedzic AM, Ehrlich JR, Ekholuenetale M, Elhadi M, Emamian MH, Emamverdi M, Farrokhpour H, Fetensa G, Fischer F, Forouhari A, Fowobaje KR, Furtado JM, Gandhi AP, Gebregergis MWW, Goulart BNG, Gudeta MD, Gupta S, Gupta VK, Gupta VB, Heidari G, Hong SH, Huynh HH, Ibitoye SE, Ilic IM, Immurana M, Jayapal SK, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Kahloun R, Kandel H, Karaye IM, Kasraei H, Kebebew GM, Kempen JH, KhalafAlla MT, Khanal S, Khatib MN, Krishan K, Lahariya C, Leasher JL, Lim SS, Marzo RR, Maugeri A, Meng Y, Mestrovic T, Mishra M, Mohamed NS, Mojiri-forushani H, Mokdad AH, Momeni-Moghaddam H, Montazeri F, Mulita A, Murray CJL, Foodani MN, Naik GR, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Negaresh M, Negash H, Nguyen DH, Oancea B, Olagunju AT, Olatubi MI, Osman WMS, Osuagwu UL, Padubidri JR, Panda-Jonas S, Pardhan S, Park S, Patel J, Perianayagam A, Pesudovs K, Pham HT, Prates EJS, Qattea I, Rahim F, Rahman M, Rapaka D, Rawaf S, Rezaei N, Roy P, Saddik B, Saeed U, Safi SZ, Safi S, Sakshaug JW, Saleh MA, Samuel VP, Samy AM, Saravanan A, Seylani A, Shaikh MA, Shamim MA, Shannawaz M, Shashamo BB, Shayan M, Shittu A, Siddig EE, Singh JA, Solomon Y, Sousa RARC, Tabatabaei SM, Tabish M, Ticoalu JHV, Toma TM, Tsatsakis A, Tsegay GM, Valizadeh R, Viskadourou M, Wassie GT, Wickramasinghe ND, Yon DK, You Y, Flaxman S, Steinmetz JD. Global estimates on the number of people blind or visually impaired by glaucoma: A meta-analysis from 2000 to 2020. Eye (Lond) 2024:10.1038/s41433-024-02995-5. [PMID: 38565601 DOI: 10.1038/s41433-024-02995-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2023] [Revised: 11/20/2023] [Accepted: 02/13/2024] [Indexed: 04/04/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To estimate global and regional trends from 2000 to 2020 of the number of persons visually impaired by glaucoma and their proportion of the total number of vision-impaired individuals. METHODS A systematic review and meta-analysis of published population studies and grey literature from 2000 to 2020 was carried out to estimate global and regional trends in number of people with vision loss due to glaucoma. Moderate or severe vision loss (MSVI) was defined as visual acuity of 6/60 or better but <6/18 (moderate) and visual acuity of 3/60 or better but <6/60 (severe vision loss). Blindness was defined as presenting visual acuity <3/60. RESULTS Globally, in 2020, 3.61 million people were blind and nearly 4.14 million were visually impaired by glaucoma. Glaucoma accounted for 8.39% (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]: 6.54, 10.29) of all blindness and 1.41% (95% UI: 1.10, 1.75) of all MSVI. Regionally, the highest proportion of blindness relating to glaucoma was found in high-income countries (26.12% [95% UI: 20.72, 32.09]), while the region with the highest age-standardized prevalence of glaucoma-related blindness and MSVI was Sub-Saharan Africa. Between 2000 and 2020, global age-standardized prevalence of glaucoma-related blindness among adults ≥50 years decreased by 26.06% among males (95% UI: 25.87, 26.24), and by 21.75% among females (95% UI: 21.54, 21.96), while MSVI due to glaucoma increased by 3.7% among males (95% UI: 3.42, 3.98), and by 7.3% in females (95% UI: 7.01, 7.59). CONCLUSIONS Within the last two decades, glaucoma has remained a major cause of blindness globally and regionally.
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Steinmetz JD, Seeher KM, Schiess N, Nichols E, Cao B, Servili C, Cavallera V, Cousin E, Hagins H, Moberg ME, Mehlman ML, Abate YH, Abbas J, Abbasi MA, Abbasian M, Abbastabar H, Abdelmasseh M, Abdollahi M, Abdollahi M, Abdollahifar MA, Abd-Rabu R, Abdulah DM, Abdullahi A, Abedi A, Abedi V, Abeldaño Zuñiga RA, Abidi H, Abiodun O, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Aboyans V, Abrha WA, Abualhasan A, Abu-Gharbieh E, Aburuz S, Adamu LH, Addo IY, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adekiya TA, Adikusuma W, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afework T, Afolabi AA, Afraz A, Afzal S, Aghamiri S, Agodi A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad S, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed JQ, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MB, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Aji B, Ajumobi O, Akade SE, Akbari M, Akbarialiabad H, Akhlaghi S, Akinosoglou K, Akinyemi RO, Akonde M, Al Hasan SM, Alahdab F, AL-Ahdal TMA, Al-amer RM, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh MT, Aldawsari KA, Alemi H, Alemi S, Algammal AM, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alhalaiqa FAN, Alhassan RK, Ali A, Ali 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Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Waqas M, Waris A, Weerakoon KG, Weintraub RG, Weldemariam AH, Westerman R, Whisnant JL, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Willekens B, Wilner LB, Winkler AS, Wolfe CDA, Wu AM, Wulf Hanson S, Xu S, Xu X, Yadollahpour A, Yaghoubi S, Yahya G, Yamagishi K, Yang L, Yano Y, Yao Y, Yehualashet SS, Yeshaneh A, Yesiltepe M, Yi S, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, You Y, Younis MZ, Yu C, Yusuf H, Zadey S, Zahedi M, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zali A, Zamagni G, Zand R, Zandieh GGZ, Zangiabadian M, Zarghami A, Zastrozhin MS, Zeariya MGM, Zegeye ZB, Zeukeng F, Zhai C, Zhang C, Zhang H, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao H, Zhao Y, Zheng P, Zhou H, Zhu B, Zhumagaliuly A, Zielińska M, Zikarg YT, Zoladl M, Murray CJL, Ong KL, Feigin VL, Vos T, Dua T. Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Neurol 2024; 23:344-381. [PMID: 38493795 PMCID: PMC10949203 DOI: 10.1016/s1474-4422(24)00038-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2023] [Revised: 01/23/2024] [Accepted: 01/26/2024] [Indexed: 03/19/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. METHODS We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. FINDINGS Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. INTERPRETATION As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Ledesma JR, Ma J, Zhang M, Basting AVL, Chu HT, Vongpradith A, Novotney A, LeGrand KE, Xu YY, Dai X, Nicholson SI, Stafford LK, Carter A, Ross JM, Abbastabar H, Abdoun M, Abdulah DM, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abrha WA, Abubaker Ali H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Aburuz S, Addo IY, Adepoju AV, Adhikari K, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afework A, Aghamiri S, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad D, Ahmad S, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmed H, Ahmed M, Ahmed A, Akinosoglou K, AL-Ahdal TMA, Alam N, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh MT, Al-Gheethi AAS, Ali A, Ali EA, Ali L, Ali Z, Ali SSS, Allel K, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq JA, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amani R, Amusa GA, Amzat J, Andrews JR, Anil A, Anwer R, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Artamonov AA, Aruleba RT, Asemahagn MA, Atre SR, Aujayeb A, Azadi D, Azadnajafabad S, Azzam AY, Badar M, Badiye AD, Bagherieh S, Bahadorikhalili S, Baig AA, Banach M, Banik B, Bardhan M, Barqawi HJ, Basharat Z, Baskaran P, Basu S, Beiranvand M, Belete MA, Belew MA, Belgaumi UI, Beloukas A, Bettencourt PJG, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhargava A, Bhat V, Bhatti JS, Bhatti GK, Bikbov B, Bitra VR, Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Bustanji Y, Butt ZA, Camargos P, Cao Y, Carr S, Carvalho F, Cegolon L, Cenderadewi M, Cevik M, Chahine Y, Chattu VK, Ching PR, Chopra H, Chung E, Claassens MM, Coberly K, Cruz-Martins N, Dabo B, Dadana S, Dadras O, Darban I, Darega Gela J, Darwesh AM, Dashti M, Demessa BH, Demisse B, Demissie S, Derese AMA, Deribe K, Desai HD, Devanbu VGC, Dhali A, Dhama K, Dhingra S, Do THP, Dongarwar D, Dsouza HL, Dube J, Dziedzic AM, Ed-Dra A, Efendi F, Effendi DE, Eftekharimehrabad A, Ekadinata N, Ekundayo TC, Elhadi M, Elilo LT, Emeto TI, Engelbert Bain L, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahim A, Feizkhah A, Fetensa G, Fischer F, Gaipov A, Gandhi AP, Gautam RK, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Gebrekidan KG, Ghaffari K, Ghassemi F, Ghazy RM, Goodridge A, Goyal A, Guan SY, Gudeta MD, Guled RA, Gultom NB, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gupta S, Hagins H, Hailu SG, Hailu WB, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Harapan H, Hasan RS, Hassan S, Haubold J, Hezam K, Hong SH, Horita N, Hossain MB, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Huynh HH, Ibitoye SE, Ikuta KS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Islam MR, Ismail NE, Ismail F, Jafarzadeh A, Jakovljevic M, Jalili M, Janodia MD, Jomehzadeh N, Jonas JB, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Kabir Z, Kamble BD, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Kanmodi KK, Kantar RS, Karaye IM, Karimi Behnagh A, Kassa GG, Kaur RJ, Kaur N, Khajuria H, Khamesipour F, Khan YH, Khan MN, Khan Suheb MZ, Khatab K, Khatami F, Kim MS, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Krishan K, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuddus MA, Kulimbet M, Kumar N, Lal DK, Landires I, Latief K, Le TDT, Le TTT, Ledda C, Lee M, Lee SW, Lerango TL, Lim SS, Liu C, Liu X, Lopukhov PD, Luo H, Lv H, Mahajan PB, Mahboobipour AA, Majeed A, Malakan Rad E, Malhotra K, Malik MSA, Malinga LA, Mallhi TH, Manilal A, Martinez-Guerra BA, Martins-Melo FR, Marzo RR, Masoumi-Asl H, Mathur V, Maude RJ, Mehrotra R, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Merza MA, Mestrovic T, Mhlanga L, Misra S, Misra AK, Mithra P, Moazen B, Mohammed H, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moore CE, Mousavi P, Mulita F, Musaigwa F, Muthusamy R, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Naik G, Nair S, Nair TS, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Negash H, Nguyen DH, Nguyen VT, Niazi RK, Nnaji CA, Nnyanzi LA, Noman EA, Nomura S, Oancea B, Obamiro KO, Odetokun IA, Odo DBO, Odukoya OO, Oh IH, Okereke CO, Okonji OC, Oren E, Ortiz-Brizuela E, Osuagwu UL, Ouyahia A, P A MP, Parija PP, Parikh RR, Park S, Parthasarathi A, Patil S, Pawar S, Peng M, Pepito VCF, Peprah P, Perdigão J, Perico N, Pham HT, Postma MJ, Prabhu ARA, Prasad M, Prashant A, Prates EJS, Rahim F, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmati M, Rajaa S, Ramasamy SK, Rao IR, Rao SJ, Rapaka D, Rashid AM, Ratan ZA, Ravikumar N, Rawaf S, Reddy MMRK, Redwan EMM, Remuzzi G, Reyes LF, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rezahosseini O, Rodrigues M, Roy P, Ruela GDA, Sabour S, Saddik B, Saeed U, Safi SZ, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Sahebkar A, Sahiledengle B, Sahoo SS, Salam N, Salami AA, Saleem S, Saleh MA, Samadi Kafil H, Samadzadeh S, Samodra YL, Sanjeev RK, Saravanan A, Sawyer SM, Selvaraj S, Senapati S, Senthilkumaran S, Shah PA, Shahid S, Shaikh MA, Sham S, Shamshirgaran MA, Shanawaz M, Sharath M, Sherchan SP, Shetty RS, Shirzad-Aski H, Shittu A, Siddig EE, Silva JP, Singh S, Singh P, Singh H, Singh JA, Siraj MS, Siswanto S, Solanki R, Solomon Y, Soriano JB, Sreeramareddy CT, Srivastava VK, Steiropoulos P, Swain CK, Tabuchi T, Tampa M, Tamuzi JJLL, Tat NY, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Teklay G, Tesfaye EG, Tessema B, Thangaraju P, Thapar R, Thum CCC, Ticoalu JHV, Tleyjeh IM, Tobe-Gai R, Toma TM, Tram KH, Udoakang AJ, Umar TP, Umeokonkwo CD, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, van Boven JFM, Varthya SB, Wang Z, Warsame MSA, Westerman R, Wonde TE, Yaghoubi S, Yi S, Yiğit V, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Zakham F, Zangiabadian M, Zeukeng F, Zhang H, Zhao Y, Zheng P, Zielińska M, Salomon JA, Reiner Jr RC, Naghavi M, Vos T, Hay SI, Murray CJL, Kyu HH. Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Infect Dis 2024:S1473-3099(24)00007-0. [PMID: 38518787 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(24)00007-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2023] [Revised: 12/09/2023] [Accepted: 01/08/2024] [Indexed: 03/24/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020. METHODS We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data. FINDINGS We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths. INTERPRETATION Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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N, Zakzuk J, Zamagni G, Zaman BA, Zaman SB, Zamora N, Zand R, Zandi M, Zandieh GGZ, Zanghì A, Zare I, Zastrozhin MS, Zeariya MGM, Zeng Y, Zhai C, Zhang C, Zhang H, Zhang H, Zhang Y, Zhang Z, Zhang Z, Zhao H, Zhao Y, Zhao Y, Zheng P, Zhong C, Zhou J, Zhu B, Zhu Z, Ziaeefar P, Zielińska M, Zou Z, Zumla A, Zweck E, Zyoud SH, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024:S0140-6736(24)00476-8. [PMID: 38484753 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00476-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2023] [Revised: 12/08/2023] [Accepted: 03/06/2024] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Renedo D, Acosta JN, Leasure AC, Sharma R, Krumholz HM, de Havenon A, Alahdab F, Aravkin AY, Aryan Z, Bärnighausen TW, Basu S, Burkart K, Coberly K, Criqui MH, Dai X, Desai R, Dharmaratne SD, Doshi R, Elgendy IY, Feigin VL, Filip I, Gad MM, Ghozy S, Hafezi-Nejad N, Kalani R, Karaye IM, Kisa A, Krishnamoorthy V, Lo W, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Misganaw A, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL, Natto ZS, Radfar A, Ram P, Roth GA, Seylani A, Shah NS, Sharma P, Sheikh A, Singh JA, Song S, Sotoudeh H, Vervoort D, Wang C, Xiao H, Xu S, Zand R, Falcone GJ, Sheth KN. Burden of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke Across the US From 1990 to 2019. JAMA Neurol 2024; 81:2815830. [PMID: 38436973 PMCID: PMC10913004 DOI: 10.1001/jamaneurol.2024.0190] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2023] [Accepted: 01/18/2024] [Indexed: 03/05/2024]
Abstract
Importance Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability in the US. Accurate and updated measures of stroke burden are needed to guide public health policies. Objective To present burden estimates of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in the US in 2019 and describe trends from 1990 to 2019 by age, sex, and geographic location. Design, Setting, and Participants An in-depth cross-sectional analysis of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study was conducted. The setting included the time period of 1990 to 2019 in the US. The study encompassed estimates for various types of strokes, including all strokes, ischemic strokes, intracerebral hemorrhages (ICHs), and subarachnoid hemorrhages (SAHs). The 2019 Global Burden of Disease results were released on October 20, 2020. Exposures In this study, no particular exposure was specifically targeted. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary focus of this analysis centered on both overall and age-standardized estimates, stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs per 100 000 individuals. Results In 2019, the US recorded 7.09 million prevalent strokes (4.07 million women [57.4%]; 3.02 million men [42.6%]), with 5.87 million being ischemic strokes (82.7%). Prevalence also included 0.66 million ICHs and 0.85 million SAHs. Although the absolute numbers of stroke cases, mortality, and DALYs surged from 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized rates either declined or remained steady. Notably, hemorrhagic strokes manifested a substantial increase, especially in mortality, compared with ischemic strokes (incidence of ischemic stroke increased by 13% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 14.2%-11.9%]; incidence of ICH increased by 39.8% [95% UI, 38.9%-39.7%]; incidence of SAH increased by 50.9% [95% UI, 49.2%-52.6%]). The downturn in stroke mortality plateaued in the recent decade. There was a discernible heterogeneity in stroke burden trends, with older adults (50-74 years) experiencing a decrease in incidence in coastal areas (decreases up to 3.9% in Vermont), in contrast to an uptick observed in younger demographics (15-49 years) in the South and Midwest US (with increases up to 8.4% in Minnesota). Conclusions and Relevance In this cross-sectional study, the declining age-standardized stroke rates over the past 3 decades suggest progress in managing stroke-related outcomes. However, the increasing absolute burden of stroke, coupled with a notable rise in hemorrhagic stroke, suggests an evolving and substantial public health challenge in the US. Moreover, the significant disparities in stroke burden trends across different age groups and geographic locations underscore the necessity for region- and demography-specific interventions and policies to effectively mitigate the multifaceted and escalating burden of stroke in the country.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniela Renedo
- Department of Neurology, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut
- Department of Neurosurgery, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Julian N. Acosta
- Department of Neurology, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Audrey C. Leasure
- Department of Neurology, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Richa Sharma
- Yale Center for Brain & Mind Health, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Harlan M. Krumholz
- Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, Yale-New Haven Hospital, New Haven, Connecticut
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Adam de Havenon
- Department of Neurology, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Fares Alahdab
- Evidence-Based Practice Center, Mayo Clinic Foundation for Medical Education and Research, Rochester, Minnesota
| | - Aleksandr Y. Aravkin
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Zahra Aryan
- Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
- Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Till Winfried Bärnighausen
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Sanjay Basu
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of General Internal Medicine, San Francisco General Hospital, San Francisco, California
| | - Katrin Burkart
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Kaleb Coberly
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Michael H. Criqui
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla
| | - Xiaochen Dai
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Rupak Desai
- Division of Cardiology, Atlanta Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Decatur, Georgia
| | - Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Community Medicine, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
| | - Rajkumar Doshi
- Department of Cardiology, St. Joseph’s University Medical Center, Paterson, New Jersey
| | - Islam Y. Elgendy
- Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Gill Heart Institute, University of Kentucky, Lexington
- National Institute for Stroke and Applied Neurosciences, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Valery L. Feigin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- National Institute for Stroke and Applied Neurosciences, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand
- Research Center of Neurology, Moscow, Russia
| | - Irina Filip
- Avicenna Medical and Clinical Research Institute, Oak Lawn, Illinois
| | - Mohamed M. Gad
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio
- Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill
| | - Sherief Ghozy
- Department of Radiology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota
| | - Nima Hafezi-Nejad
- Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Rizwan Kalani
- Department of Neurology, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Ibraheem M. Karaye
- School of Health Professions and Human Services, Hofstra University, Hempstead, New York
- Department of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, New York
| | - Adnan Kisa
- School of Health Sciences, Kristiania University College, Oslo, Norway
- Department of International Health and Sustainability, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana
| | - Vijay Krishnamoorthy
- Department of Anesthesiology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
- Department of Anesthesiology & Pain Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Warren Lo
- Department of Pediatrics, Ohio State University, Columbus
- Department of Neurology, Nationwide Children’s Hospital, Columbus, Ohio
| | - Tomislav Mestrovic
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- University Centre Varazdin, University North, Varazdin, Croatia
| | - Ted R. Miller
- Pacific Institute for Research & Evaluation, Calverton, Maryland
- School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Awoke Misganaw
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
- School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
| | - Ali H. Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Christopher J. L. Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Zuhair S. Natto
- Department of Dental Public Health, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Health Policy and Oral Epidemiology, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Amir Radfar
- College of Medicine, University of Central Florida, Orlando
| | - Pradhum Ram
- Division of Cardiology, UPMC Western Maryland, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Gregory A. Roth
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
- Division of Cardiology, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Allen Seylani
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institute of Health, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Nilay S. Shah
- Department of Medicine (Cardiology), Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois
| | - Purva Sharma
- Department of Medical Oncology, Kent Hospital, Warwick, Rhode Island
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Jasvinder A. Singh
- School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham
- Medicine Service, US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), Birmingham, Alabama
| | - Suhang Song
- Department of Health Policy and Management, University of Georgia College of Public Health, Athens
| | - Houman Sotoudeh
- Department of Radiology, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham
| | - Dominique Vervoort
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Cong Wang
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee
| | - Hong Xiao
- Department of Public Health Science, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
| | - Suowen Xu
- Department of Endocrinology, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China
- Max-Planck-Institute for Heart and Lung Research, Bad Nauheim, Germany
| | - Ramin Zand
- Department of Neurology, Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine, Hershey
| | - Guido J. Falcone
- Department of Neurology, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut
- Yale Center for Brain & Mind Health, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Kevin N. Sheth
- Department of Neurology, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut
- Department of Neurosurgery, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut
- Yale Center for Brain & Mind Health, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut
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9
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Okoli U, Ogunsola AS, Adeniyi Z, Abdulkadir A, DeMetropolis SM, Olatunji EA, Karaye IM. Regional and Demographic Disparities in Atrial Fibrillation Mortality in the USA. J Racial Ethn Health Disparities 2024:10.1007/s40615-024-01917-1. [PMID: 38300428 DOI: 10.1007/s40615-024-01917-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2023] [Revised: 01/02/2024] [Accepted: 01/20/2024] [Indexed: 02/02/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite the burden of atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF/AFL) in the USA, an assessment of contemporary mortality trends is scarce in the literature. This study aimed to assess the temporal trends in AF/AFL deaths among US adults by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and census region from 1999 to 2020. METHODS National mortality data was abstracted from the National Center for Health Statistics to identify decedents whose underlying cause of death was cardiovascular disease and multiple cause of death, AF/AFL. Joinpoint regression assessed mortality trends, and we calculated the average percentage changes (APC) and average annual percentage changes in mortality rates. Results were presented as effect estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). RESULTS Between 1999 and 2020, 657,126 adults died from AF/AFL in the USA. Contemporary trends have worsened overall except among individuals from the Northeast region for whom the rates have remained stationary since 2015 (APC = 0.1; 95% CI, - 1.0, 1.1). Regional and demographic disparities were observed, with higher rates noted among younger persons below 65 years of age, women (APC = 2.1; 95% CI, 1.7, 2.5), and non-Hispanic Blacks (APC = 4.5; 95% CI, 3.9, 5.2). CONCLUSIONS The temporal trends in AF/AFL mortality in the USA have exhibited a worsening pattern in recent years, with regional and demographic disparities. Further investigations are warranted to explore the determinants of AF/AFL mortality in the US population and identify factors that may explain the observed differences. Understanding these factors will facilitate efforts to promote improved and equitable health outcomes for the population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Unoma Okoli
- Department of Medicine, Mount Auburn Hospital, Harvard Medical School, 330 Mount Auburn St, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA.
| | - Ayobami S Ogunsola
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, 475 Vine St, Winston-Salem, NC, 27101, USA
| | - Zahira Adeniyi
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY, 11549, USA
| | - Aisha Abdulkadir
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY, 11549, USA
| | - Susan M DeMetropolis
- Department of Speech, & Hearing Sciences, Hofstra University, Davison Hall 0106C, LanguageHempstead, NY, 11549, USA
| | - Eniola A Olatunji
- Department of Health Policy & Management, Texas A&M University, 212 Adriance Lab Rd, College Station, TX, 77843-1266, USA
| | - Ibraheem M Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY, 11549, USA
- Department of Anaesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA
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10
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Yunusa I, Farhadi K, Karaye IM. Racial, Ethnic, and Regional Disparities in Cocaine-Involved Overdose Deaths in the US, 1999-2020. J Racial Ethn Health Disparities 2024; 11:441-450. [PMID: 36787046 DOI: 10.1007/s40615-023-01531-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2022] [Revised: 01/29/2023] [Accepted: 01/31/2023] [Indexed: 02/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Social inequalities among underrepresented communities may lead to higher overdose mortality involving cocaine use. We assessed the temporal trends in cocaine-involved overdose mortality rate in the US by race, ethnicity, and geographic region from 1999 to 2020. METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional study among adults in the US using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database (1999 to 2020). To identify cocaine-involved overdose decedents, we used the International Classification of Diseases Code, 10th Revision-T40.5. We used Joinpoint regression to examine the trends in age-adjusted cocaine-involved overdose mortality rates (AAMR) by race, ethnicity, and geographic region and estimated annual percentage changes (APC). RESULTS Overall, cocaine-involved overdose mortality trends increased (APC, 11.3%; 95% CI, 0.6, 23.2) from 2017 to 2020. The latest trends have remained stable among Non-Hispanic Whites since 2017 (APC, 4.3%; 95% CI, -5.7%, 15.4%) but have significantly increased among Non-Hispanic Blacks (APC, 27.2%; 95% CI, 22.1%, 32.5%), Hispanics (APC, 26.9%; 95% CI, 20.6%, 33.5%), and American Indians/Alaska Natives (APC, 24.1%; 95% CI, 16.5%, 32.2%). CONCLUSION Cocaine-related overdose deaths in the US significantly increased between 2017 and 2020, but the increase was among racial and ethnic minorities and not among Non-Hispanic Whites. These findings suggest a need to address the US' longstanding racial and ethnic healthcare inequities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ismaeel Yunusa
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Outcomes Sciences, University of South Carolina College of Pharmacy, 715 Sumter Street, Columbia, SC, 29208, USA.
| | - Kameron Farhadi
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY, USA
| | - Ibraheem M Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY, USA
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11
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Karaye IM, Kyriacou CM. HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in older adults. Lancet Healthy Longev 2024; 5:e2-e3. [PMID: 38183997 DOI: 10.1016/s2666-7568(23)00256-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2023] [Accepted: 11/23/2023] [Indexed: 01/08/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Ibraheem M Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY 11549, USA; Department of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center and Albert Einstein College of Medicine, New York, NY, USA.
| | - Corinne M Kyriacou
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY 11549, USA; Department of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center and Albert Einstein College of Medicine, New York, NY, USA
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12
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Haile LM, Orji AU, Reavis KM, Briant PS, Lucas KM, Alahdab F, Bärnighausen TW, Bell AW, Cao C, Dai X, Hay SI, Heidari G, Karaye IM, Miller TR, Mokdad AH, Mostafavi E, Natto ZS, Pawar S, Rana J, Seylani A, Singh JA, Wei J, Yang L, Ong KL, Steinmetz JD. Hearing Loss Prevalence, Years Lived With Disability, and Hearing Aid Use in the United States From 1990 to 2019: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease Study. Ear Hear 2024; 45:257-267. [PMID: 37712826 PMCID: PMC10718207 DOI: 10.1097/aud.0000000000001420] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2022] [Accepted: 06/17/2023] [Indexed: 09/16/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This article describes key data sources and methods used to estimate hearing loss in the United States, in the Global Burden of Disease study. Then, trends in hearing loss are described for 2019, including temporal trends from 1990 to 2019, changing prevalence over age, severity patterns, and utilization of hearing aids. DESIGN We utilized population-representative surveys from the United States to estimate hearing loss prevalence for the Global Burden of Disease study. A key input data source in modeled estimates are the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES), years 1988 to 2010. We ran hierarchical severity-specific models to estimate hearing loss prevalence. We then scaled severity-specific models to sum to total hearing impairment prevalence, adjusted estimates for hearing aid coverage, and split estimates by etiology and tinnitus status. We computed years lived with disability (YLDs), which quantifies the amount of health loss associated with a condition depending on severity and creates a common metric to compare the burden of disparate diseases. This was done by multiplying the prevalence of severity-specific hearing loss by corresponding disability weights, with additional weighting for tinnitus comorbidity. RESULTS An estimated 72.88 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 68.53 to 77.30) people in the United States had hearing loss in 2019, accounting for 22.2% (20.9 to 23.6) of the total population. Hearing loss was responsible for 2.24 million (1.56 to 3.11) YLDs (3.6% (2.8 to 4.7) of total US YLDs). Age-standardized prevalence was higher in males (17.7% [16.7 to 18.8]) compared with females (11.9%, [11.2 to 12.5]). While most cases of hearing loss were mild (64.3%, 95% UI 61.0 to 67.6), disability was concentrated in cases that were moderate or more severe. The all-age prevalence of hearing loss in the United States was 28.1% (25.7 to 30.8) higher in 2019 than in 1990, despite stable age-standardized prevalence. An estimated 9.7% (8.6 to 11.0) of individuals with mild to profound hearing loss utilized a hearing aid, while 32.5% (31.9 to 33.2) of individuals with hearing loss experienced tinnitus. Occupational noise exposure was responsible for 11.2% (10.2 to 12.4) of hearing loss YLDs. CONCLUSIONS Results indicate large burden of hearing loss in the United States, with an estimated 1 in 5 people experiencing this condition. While many cases of hearing loss in the United States were mild, growing prevalence, low usage of hearing aids, and aging populations indicate the rising impact of this condition in future years and the increasing importance of domestic access to hearing healthcare services. Large-scale audiometric surveys such as NHANES are needed to regularly assess hearing loss burden and access to healthcare, improving our understanding of who is impacted by hearing loss and what groups are most amenable to intervention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lydia M. Haile
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Aislyn U. Orji
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kelly M. Reavis
- National Center for Rehabilitative Auditory Research, US Department of Veterans Affairs—Portland Healthcare System, Portland, OR, USA
| | - Paul Svitil Briant
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Katia M. Lucas
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Fares Alahdab
- Mayo Evidence-based Practice Center, Mayo Clinic Foundation for Medical Education and Research, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Till Winfried Bärnighausen
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Arielle Wilder Bell
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Social Services, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Chao Cao
- Program in Physical Therapy, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA
| | - Xiaochen Dai
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Simon I. Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Ibraheem M. Karaye
- School of Health Professions and Human Services, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY, USA
| | - Ted R. Miller
- Pacific Institute for Research & Evaluation, Calverton, MD, USA
- School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Ali H. Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Ebrahim Mostafavi
- Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, USA
- Stanford Cardiovascular Institute, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, USA
| | - Zuhair S. Natto
- Department of Dental Public Health, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Oral Health Policy and Epidemiology, Harvard University, Boston, USA
| | - Shrikant Pawar
- Department of Genetics, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Juwel Rana
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
- Research and Innovation Division, South Asian Institute for Social Transformation (SAIST), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Allen Seylani
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institute of Health, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Jasvinder A. Singh
- School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
- Medicine Service, US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), Birmingham, AL, USA
| | - Jingkai Wei
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
| | - Lin Yang
- Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Alberta Health Services, Calgary, BC, Canada
- Department of Oncology, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Kanyin Liane Ong
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jaimie D. Steinmetz
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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13
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Karaye IM, Knight G, Kyriacou C. Association Between the New York SAFE Act and Firearm Suicide and Homicide: An Analysis of Synthetic Controls, New York State, 1999‒2019. Am J Public Health 2023; 113:1309-1317. [PMID: 37939334 PMCID: PMC10632839 DOI: 10.2105/ajph.2023.307400] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/20/2023] [Indexed: 11/10/2023]
Abstract
Objectives. To assess the association between the New York Secure Ammunition and Firearms Enforcement Act (NY SAFE Act) and firearm suicide and homicide rates. Methods. We employed a synthetic controls approach to investigate the impact of the NY SAFE Act on firearm suicide and firearm homicide rates. We collected state-level data on firearm mortality from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) database for the period 1999-2019. We derived statistical inference by using a permutation-based in-place placebo test. Results. The implementation of the NY SAFE Act was associated with a significant reduction in firearm homicide rates, demonstrating a decrease of 63%. This decrease corresponds to an estimated prevention of 1697 deaths between 2013 and 2019. However, there was no association between the NY SAFE Act and firearm suicide rates. Conclusions. As the responsibility for enacting firearm policies increasingly falls on states instead of the federal government, this study provides valuable information that can assist states in making evidence-based decisions regarding the development and implementation of firearm policies that prioritize public safety and aim to prevent firearm-related fatalities. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(12):1309-1317. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307400).
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Affiliation(s)
- Ibraheem M Karaye
- Ibraheem M. Karaye, Gaia Knight, and Corinne M. Kyriacou are with the Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY
| | - Gaia Knight
- Ibraheem M. Karaye, Gaia Knight, and Corinne M. Kyriacou are with the Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY
| | - Corinne Kyriacou
- Ibraheem M. Karaye, Gaia Knight, and Corinne M. Kyriacou are with the Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY
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Safdarian M, Trinka E, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Thomschewski A, Aali A, Abady GG, Abate SM, Abd-Allah F, Abedi A, Adane DE, Afzal S, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmed H, Amanat N, Angappan D, Arabloo J, Aryannejad A, Athari SS, Atreya A, Azadnajafabad S, Azzam AY, Babamohamadi H, Banik PC, Bardhan M, Bashiri A, Berhie AY, Bhat AN, Brown J, Champs AP, Charalampous P, Chukwu IS, Coberly K, Dadras O, Yada DY, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dessalegn FN, Desta AA, Dhingra S, Diao N, Diaz D, Dibas M, Dongarwar D, Dsouza HL, Ekholuenetale M, El Nahas N, Elhadi M, Eskandarieh S, Fagbamigbe AF, Fares J, Fatehizadeh A, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fischer F, Franklin RC, Garg T, Getachew M, Ghaffarpasand F, Gholamrezanezhad A, Gholizadeh Mesgarha M, Ghozy S, Golechha M, Goleij P, Graham SM, Gupta VK, Haagsma JA, Hamidi S, Harlianto NI, Harorani M, Hasanian M, Hassan A, Hassen MB, Hoveidaei AH, Iravanpour F, Irilouzadian R, Iwu CCD, Jacob L, Jaja CJ, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Jozwiak JJ, Kadashetti V, Kandel A, Kantar RS, Karaye IM, Karkhah S, Khader YS, Khan EA, Khan MJ, Khayat Kashani HR, Khonji MS, Khormali M, Kim G, Krishnamoorthy V, Kumaran SD, Malekpour MR, Meretoja TJ, Mesregah MK, Mestrovic T, Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá AC, Miller TR, Mirahmadi A, Mirghaderi SP, Mirza M, Misganaw A, Misra S, Mohammad Y, Mohammadi E, Mokdad AH, Möller H, Momtazmanesh S, Moni MA, Mostafavi E, Mulita F, Naghavi M, Nassereldine H, Natto ZS, Nejati K, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen VT, Nogueira de Sá AT, Olagunju AT, Olufadewa II, Omotayo AO, Owolabi MO, Patil S, Pawar S, Pedersini P, Petcu IR, Polinder S, Pourbagher-Shahri AM, Qureshi MF, Raghav PR, Rahman M, Rahnavard N, Rajabpour-Sanati A, Rashidi MM, Rawaf S, Roberts NLS, Saddik B, Saeed U, Samadzadeh S, Samy AM, Sarveazad A, Seylani A, Shafie M, Shahbandi A, Sharew MMS, Sheikhi RA, Shetty PH, Yigit A, Shobeiri P, Shool S, Shorofi SA, Sibhat MM, Sinaei E, Singh P, Singh S, Solomon Y, Sotoudeh H, Tadesse BA, Umair M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valdez PR, Venketasubramanian N, Vu LG, Wickramasinghe ND, Zare I, Yazdanpanah F, Wu AM, Zhang ZJ. Global, regional, and national burden of spinal cord injury, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Neurol 2023; 22:1026-1047. [PMID: 37863591 PMCID: PMC10584692 DOI: 10.1016/s1474-4422(23)00287-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2023] [Revised: 07/05/2023] [Accepted: 07/21/2023] [Indexed: 10/22/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Spinal cord injury (SCI) is a major cause of health loss due to premature mortality and long-term disability. We aimed to report on the global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for SCI from 1990 to 2019, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. METHODS Using GBD 2019 data pooled in DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, we systematically derived numbers and age-standardised rate changes with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs) for the incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for SCI from 1990 to 2019 for the whole world, 21 GBD regions, and 204 countries and territories. We report trends based on age, sex, year, cause of injury, and level of injury. FINDINGS Globally, 20·6 million (95% UI 18·9 to 23·6) individuals were living with SCI in 2019. The incidence of SCI was 0·9 million (0·7 to 1·2) cases with an estimated 6·2 million (4·5 to 8·2) YLDs. SCI rates increased substantially from 1990 to 2019 for global prevalence (81·5%, 74·2 to 87·1), incidence (52·7%, 30·3 to 69·8), and YLDs (65·4%, 56·3 to 76·0). However, global age-standardised rates per 100 000 population showed small changes in prevalence (5·8%, 2·6 to 9·5), incidence (-6·1%, -17·2 to 1·5), and YLDs (-1·5%, -5·5 to 3·2). Data for 2019 shows that the incidence of SCI increases sharply until age 15-19 years, where it remains reasonably constant until 85 years of age and older. By contrast, prevalence and YLDs showed similar patterns to each other, with one peak at around age 45-54 years. The incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of SCI have consistently been higher in men than in women globally, with a slight and steady increase for both men and women from 1990 to 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, SCI at neck level was more common than SCI below neck level in terms of incidence (492 thousand [354 to 675] vs 417 thousand [290 to 585]), prevalence (10·8 million [9·5 to 13·9] vs 9·7 million [9·2 to 10·4]), and YLDs (4·2 million [3·0 to 5·8] vs 1·9 million [1·3 to 2·5]). Falls (477 thousand [327 to 683] cases) and road injuries (230 thousand [122 to 389] cases) were the two leading causes of SCI globally in 2019. INTERPRETATION Although age-standardised rates of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for SCI changed only slightly, absolute counts increased substantially from 1990 to 2019. Geographical heterogeneity in demographic, spatial, and temporal patterns of SCI, at both the national and regional levels, should be considered by policy makers aiming to reduce the burden of SCI. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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15
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Moberg ME, Hamilton EB, Zeng SM, Bryazka D, Zhao JT, Feldman R, Abate YH, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abdurehman AM, Abedi A, Abu-Gharbieh E, Addo IY, Adepoju AV, Adnani QES, Afzal S, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmed D, Ahmed H, Alem DT, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alimohamadi Y, Ameyaw EK, Amrollahi-Sharifabadi M, Anagaw TF, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Athari SS, Atreya A, Azari Jafari A, Badiye AD, Baghcheghi N, Bagherieh S, Bansal H, Barrow A, Bashiri A, Bayileyegn NS, Berhie AY, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Boloor A, Cámera LA, Carvalho F, Carvalho M, Chandrasekar EK, Chang JC, Chattu VK, Chu DT, Coberly K, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai X, Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani R, Das S, Das S, Debela SA, Demessa BH, Deng X, Desta AA, Desye B, Dhimal M, Dibas M, Dsouza HL, Ekholuenetale M, El Sayed I, El-Huneidi W, Enyew DB, Fagbamigbe AF, Fatehizadeh A, Fatima SAF, Fischer F, Franklin RC, Garg T, Gebi TG, Gerema U, Getachew M, Getachew ME, Ghamari F, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Harorani M, Hasani H, Hassan AM, Hassanian-Moghaddam H, Hassen MB, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari M, Heidari-Foroozan M, Heyi DZ, Holla R, Hoogar P, Hossain MS, Hosseini MS, Hostiuc S, Hoveidamanesh S, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Immurana M, Iwu CCD, Jayarajah U, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Kadashetti V, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Kantar RS, Kapoor N, Karaye IM, Katoto PDMC, Khajuria H, Khan EA, Khateri S, Khodamoradi F, Khormali M, Khubchandani J, Kim G, Kisa A, Koohestani HR, Krishan K, Kumar N, Laflamme L, Landires I, Larijani B, Lauriola P, Le TTT, Ledda C, Lee SW, Lim SS, Lobo SW, Lunevicius R, Maharaj SB, Menezes RG, Mentis AFA, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Mirmoeeni S, Misganaw A, Mishra M, Misra S, Mittal C, Mohammadi E, Mokdad AH, Moni MA, Mostafavi E, Mubarik S, Mulita F, Mulualem JA, Mulugeta T, Murray CJL, Myers I, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Nejadghaderi SA, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen VT, Nouraei H, Nzoputam OJ, Okati-Aliabad H, Olufadewa II, Ordak M, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pandey A, Pant S, Parekh U, Pawar S, Peden AE, Petcu IR, Piel FB, Piracha ZZ, Pourali G, Qattea I, Qureshi MF, Raghav PR, Rahman M, Rahmani S, Ramasubramani P, Ramazanu S, Rawaf S, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Saddik B, Sadeghi M, Sadeghian F, Saeed U, Sahebkar A, Saif Z, Sakshaug JW, Salahi S, Salamati P, Samy AM, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Schwebel DC, Senthilkumaran S, Seylani A, Shaikh MA, Sham S, Shashamo BB, Sheikhi RA, Shetty BSK, Shetty PH, Sibhat MM, Singh H, Singh P, Sisay EA, Solomon Y, Taheri M, Ullah I, Ullah S, Violante FS, Vu LG, Wickramasinghe ND, Yigit A, Yonemoto N, Yousefi Z, Zaman M, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang ZJ, Zheng P, Zoladl M, Steinmetz JD, Vos T, Naghavi M, Ong KL. Global, regional, and national mortality due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning, 2000-2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Public Health 2023; 8:e839-e849. [PMID: 37813118 PMCID: PMC10602911 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(23)00185-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2023] [Revised: 08/04/2023] [Accepted: 08/08/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is a largely preventable cause of death that has received insufficient attention. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive global analysis of the demographic, temporal, and geographical patterns of fatal unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning from 2000 to 2021. METHODS As part of the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality was quantified using the GBD cause of death ensemble modelling strategy. Vital registration data and covariates with an epidemiological link to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning informed the estimates of death counts and mortality rates for all locations, sexes, ages, and years included in the GBD. Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying deaths by remaining standard life expectancy at age of death. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning deaths due to occupational injuries and high alcohol use were estimated. FINDINGS In 2021, the global mortality rate due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning was 0·366 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval 0·276-0·415), with 28 900 deaths (21 700-32 800) and 1·18 million YLLs (0·886-1·35) across all ages. Nearly 70% of deaths occurred in males (20 100 [15 800-24 000]), and the 50-54-year age group had the largest number of deaths (2210 [1660-2590]). The highest mortality rate was in those aged 85 years or older with 1·96 deaths (1·38-2·32) per 100 000. Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardised mortality rate at 2·12 deaths (1·98-2·30) per 100 000. Globally, there was a 53·5% (46·2-63·7) decrease in the age-standardised mortality rate from 2000 to 2021, although this decline was not uniform across regions. The overall PAFs for occupational injuries and high alcohol use were 13·6% (11·9-16·0) and 3·5% (1·4-6·2), respectively. INTERPRETATION Improvements in unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality rates have been inconsistent across regions and over time since 2000. Given that unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is almost entirely preventable, policy-level interventions that lower the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning events should be prioritised, such as those that increase access to improved heating and cooking devices, reduce carbon monoxide emissions from generators, and mandate use of carbon monoxide alarms. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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16
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Cunha ARD, Compton K, Xu R, Mishra R, Drangsholt MT, Antunes JLF, Kerr AR, Acheson AR, Lu D, Wallace LE, Kocarnik JM, Fu W, Dean FE, Pennini A, Henrikson HJ, Alam T, Ababneh E, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdoun M, Abidi H, Abubaker Ali H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Adane TD, Addo IY, Ahmad A, Ahmad S, Ahmed Rashid T, Akonde M, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alimohamadi Y, Alipour V, Al-Maweri SA, Alsharif U, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Anwar SL, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Aruleba RT, Asaad M, Ashraf T, Athari SS, Attia S, Azadnajafabad S, Azangou-Khyavy M, Badar M, Baghcheghi N, Banach M, Bardhan M, Barqawi HJ, Bashir NZ, Bashiri A, Benzian H, Bernabe E, Bhagat DS, Bhojaraja VS, Bjørge T, Bouaoud S, Braithwaite D, Briko NI, Calina D, Carreras G, Chakraborty PA, Chattu VK, Chaurasia A, Chen MX, Cho WCS, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani R, Darwesh AM, Debela SA, Derbew Molla M, Dessalegn FN, Dianati-Nasab M, Digesa LE, Dixit SG, Dixit A, Djalalinia S, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Enyew DB, Erku DA, Ezzeddini R, Fagbamigbe AF, Falzone L, Fetensa G, Fukumoto T, Gaewkhiew P, Gallus S, Gebrehiwot M, Ghashghaee A, Gill PS, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gomez RS, Gorini G, Guimaraes ALS, Gupta B, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halboub ES, Halwani R, Hanif A, Hariyani N, Harorani M, Hasani H, Hassan AM, Hassanipour S, Hassen MB, Hay SI, Hayat K, Herrera-Serna BY, Holla R, Horita N, Hosseinzadeh M, Hussain S, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Isola G, Jaiswal A, Jani CT, Javaheri T, Jayarajah U, Jayaram S, Joseph N, Kadashetti V, Kandaswamy E, Karanth SD, Karaye IM, Kauppila JH, Kaur H, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khanali J, Khatib MN, Khayat Kashani HR, Khazeei Tabari MA, Kim MS, Kompani F, Koohestani HR, Kumar GA, Kurmi OP, La Vecchia C, Lal DK, Landires I, Lasrado S, Ledda C, Lee YH, Libra M, Lim SS, Listl S, Lopukhov PD, Mafi AR, Mahumud RA, Malik AA, Mathur MR, Maulud SQ, Meena JK, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mestrovic T, Mirfakhraie R, Misganaw A, Misra S, Mithra P, Mohammad Y, Mohammadi M, Mohammadi E, Mokdad AH, Moni MA, Moraga P, Morrison SD, Mozaffari HR, Mubarik S, Murray CJL, Nair TS, Narasimha Swamy S, Narayana AI, Nassereldine H, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Negru SM, Nggada HA, Nouraei H, Nuñez-Samudio V, Oancea B, Olagunju AT, Omar Bali A, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pandey A, Pardhan S, Patel J, Pezzani R, Piracha ZZ, Rabiee N, Radhakrishnan V, Radhakrishnan RA, Rahmani AM, Rahmanian V, Rao CR, Rao SJ, Rath GK, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Razeghinia MS, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Riad A, Roberts TJ, Romero-Rodríguez E, Roshandel G, S M, S N C, Saddik B, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Safaei M, Sahebazzamani M, Sahebkar A, Salek Farrokhi A, Samy AM, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Šekerija M, Senthilkumaran S, Seylani A, Shafaat O, Shahsavari HR, Shamsoddin E, Sharew MM, Sharifi-Rad J, Shetty JK, Shivakumar KM, Shobeiri P, Shorofi SA, Shrestha S, Siddappa Malleshappa SK, Singh P, Singh JA, Singh G, Sinha DN, Solomon Y, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Taheri Abkenar Y, Talaat IM, Tan KK, Tbakhi A, Thiyagarajan A, Tiyuri A, Tovani-Palone MR, Unnikrishnan B, Vo B, Volovat SR, Wang C, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe ND, Xiao H, Yu C, Yuce D, Yunusa I, Zadnik V, Zare I, Zhang ZJ, Zoladl M, Force LM, Hugo FN. The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Adult Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer in 204 Countries and Territories: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. JAMA Oncol 2023; 9:1401-1416. [PMID: 37676656 PMCID: PMC10485745 DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2023.2960] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2022] [Accepted: 05/04/2023] [Indexed: 09/08/2023]
Abstract
Importance Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning. Objective To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates. Evidence Review The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019. Findings In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia. Conclusions and Relevance In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Kelly Compton
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Rixing Xu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Data and Tooling, Sage Bionetworks, Seattle, Washington
| | - Rashmi Mishra
- Department of Oral Medicine, School of Dentistry, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Mark Thomas Drangsholt
- Department of Oral Medicine, School of Dentistry, University of Washington, Seattle
- Oral Medicine Clinic, School of Dentistry, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Alexander R Kerr
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Pathology, Radiology, and Medicine, College of Dentistry, New York University, New York, New York
| | - Alistair R Acheson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Dan Lu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Lindsey E Wallace
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Jonathan M Kocarnik
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Weijia Fu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Frances E Dean
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Mathematics, University of California, Berkeley
| | - Alyssa Pennini
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Hannah Jacqueline Henrikson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Tahiya Alam
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Emad Ababneh
- Pathology and Laboratory Medicine Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - Sherief Abd-Elsalam
- Tropical Medicine Department, Faculty of Medicine, Tanta University, Tanta, Egypt
| | - Meriem Abdoun
- Department of Medicine, University of Setif Algeria, Setif, Algeria
| | - Hassan Abidi
- Laboratory Technology Sciences Department, Yasuj University of Medical Sciences, Yasuj, Iran
| | - Hiwa Abubaker Ali
- Department of Banking and Finance, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | - Eman Abu-Gharbieh
- Clinical Sciences Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Tigist Demssew Adane
- Department of Clinical and Psychosocial Epidemiology, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Isaac Yeboah Addo
- Centre for Social Research in Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Quality and Systems Performance Unit, Cancer Institute NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Aqeel Ahmad
- Department of Medical Biochemistry, Shaqra University, Shaqra, Saudi Arabia
| | - Sajjad Ahmad
- Department of Health and Biological Sciences, Abasyn University, Peshawar, Pakistan
| | - Tarik Ahmed Rashid
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Kurdistan Hewler, Erbil, Iraq
| | - Maxwell Akonde
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia
| | - Hanadi Al Hamad
- Geriatric and Long Term Care Department, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Rumailah Hospital, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Fares Alahdab
- Evidence-Based Practice Center Program, Mayo Clinic Foundation for Medical Education and Research, Rochester, Minnesota
| | - Yousef Alimohamadi
- Health Research Center, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Vahid Alipour
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Health Economics, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Zahedan University of Medical Sciences, Zahedan, Iran
| | - Sumadi Lukman Anwar
- Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
| | | | - Jalal Arabloo
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Aleksandr Y Aravkin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Applied Mathematics, College of Arts & Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Raphael Taiwo Aruleba
- Department of Molecular and Cell Biology, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Malke Asaad
- Department of Plastic Surgery, University of Texas, Houston
| | - Tahira Ashraf
- University Institute of Radiological Sciences and Medical Imaging Technology, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
| | | | - Sameh Attia
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Giessen, Germany
| | - Sina Azadnajafabad
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Muhammad Badar
- Gomal Center of Biochemistry and Biotechnology, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, Pakistan
| | - Nayereh Baghcheghi
- Department of Nursing, Saveh University of Medical Sciences, Saveh, Iran
| | - Maciej Banach
- Department of Hypertension, Medical University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland
- Polish Mothers' Memorial Hospital Research Institute, Lodz, Poland
| | - Mainak Bardhan
- Department of Molecular Microbiology and Bacteriology, National Institute of Cholera and Enteric Diseases, Kolkata, India
- Department of Molecular Microbiology, Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India
| | - Hiba Jawdat Barqawi
- Clinical Sciences Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Nasir Z Bashir
- School of Oral and Dental Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, England, United Kingdom
| | - Azadeh Bashiri
- Health Information Management, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Habib Benzian
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Promotion, College of Dentistry, New York University, New York, New York
| | - Eduardo Bernabe
- Faculty of Dentistry, Oral & Craniofacial Sciences, King's College London, London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Devidas S Bhagat
- Department of Forensic Chemistry, Government Institute of Forensic Science, Aurangabad, India
| | - Vijayalakshmi S Bhojaraja
- Department of Anatomy, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland Medical, University of Bahrain, Busaiteen, Bahrain
| | - Tone Bjørge
- Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway
| | - Souad Bouaoud
- Department of Medicine, University Ferhat Abbas of Setif, Setif, Algeria
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, University Hospital Saadna Abdenour, Setif, Algeria
| | - Dejana Braithwaite
- Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health and Health Professions and College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville
- Cancer Control and Population Sciences Program, University of Florida Health Cancer Center, Gainesville
| | - Nikolay Ivanovich Briko
- Department of Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Daniela Calina
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Craiova, Craiova, Romania
| | - Giulia Carreras
- Institute for Cancer Research, Prevention and Clinical Network, Florence, Italy
| | - Promit Ananyo Chakraborty
- School of Population and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Vijay Kumar Chattu
- Department of Community Medicine, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences, Sawangi, India
- Saveetha Medical College and Hospitals, Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences (SIMATS), Chennai, India
| | - Akhilanand Chaurasia
- Department of Oral Medicine and Radiology, King George's Medical University, Lucknow, India
| | - Meng Xuan Chen
- Department of Oral Biological and Medical Sciences, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - William C S Cho
- Department of Clinical Oncology, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Hong Kong, China
| | - Dinh-Toi Chu
- Center for Biomedicine and Community Health, International School, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | | | - Eunice Chung
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Natália Cruz-Martins
- Department of Therapeutic and Diagnostic Technologies, Polytechnic and University Higher Education Cooperative, Gandra, Portugal
- Institute for Research and Innovation in Health, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Omid Dadras
- Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- Section Global Health and Rehabilitation, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Bergen, Norway
| | - Xiaochen Dai
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Lalit Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
- Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India
| | - Rakhi Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
| | - Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland
- Department of Pathology, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | | | - Aso Mohammad Darwesh
- Department of Information Technology, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | | | | | - Fikadu Nugusu Dessalegn
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, Madda Walabu University, Bale Goba, Ethiopia
| | - Mostafa Dianati-Nasab
- Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences, Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands
- Department of Epidemiology, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Lankamo Ena Digesa
- Department of Comprehensive Nursing, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia
| | - Shilpi Gupta Dixit
- Department of Anatomy, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | - Abhinav Dixit
- Department of Physiology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | - Shirin Djalalinia
- Development of Research and Technology Center, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
| | - Iman El Sayed
- Department of Biomedical Informatics and Medical Statistics, Medical Research Institute, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | - Maha El Tantawi
- Department of Pediatric Dentistry and Dental Public Health, Faculty of Dentistry, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | | | - Daniel Asfaw Erku
- Centre for Applied Health Economics, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
| | - Rana Ezzeddini
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
| | - Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe
- Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
- The Institute of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | - Luca Falzone
- Epidemiology and Biostatistics Unit, National Cancer Institute IRCCS Fondazione G. Pascale, Naples, Italy
- Department of Biomedical and Biotechnological Sciences, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | - Getahun Fetensa
- Department of Nursing, College of Medical and Health Sciences, Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia
| | | | - Piyada Gaewkhiew
- Department of Community Dentistry, Faculty of Dentistry, Mahidol University, Ratchathewi, Thailand
- Population and Patient Health Group, King's College London, London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Silvano Gallus
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, Milan, Italy
| | - Mesfin Gebrehiwot
- Department of Environmental Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia
| | - Ahmad Ghashghaee
- School of Public Health, Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Qazvin, Iran
| | - Paramjit Singh Gill
- Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, England, United Kingdom
| | - Mahaveer Golechha
- Department of Health Systems and Policy Research, Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar, India
| | - Pouya Goleij
- Department of Genetics, Sana Institute of Higher Education, Sari, Iran
| | - Ricardo Santiago Gomez
- Department of Oral Surgery and Pathology, School of Dentistry, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Giuseppe Gorini
- Oncological Network, Institute for Cancer Research, Prevention and Clinical Network, Florence, Italy
| | | | - Bhawna Gupta
- Department of Public Health, Torrens University Australia, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Sapna Gupta
- Toxicology Department, Shriram Institute for Industrial Research, Delhi, India
| | - Veer Bala Gupta
- School of Medicine, Deakin University, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
| | - Vivek Kumar Gupta
- Faculty of Medicine, Health and Human Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Arvin Haj-Mirzaian
- Department of Pharmacology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Obesity Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Esam S Halboub
- College of Dentistry, Jazan University, Jazan, Saudi Arabia
- School of Dentistry, Sana'a University, Sana'a, Yemen
| | - Rabih Halwani
- Clinical Sciences Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
- College of Medicine, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Asif Hanif
- University Institute of Public Health, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Ninuk Hariyani
- Department of Dental Public Health, Airlangga University, Surabaya, Indonesia
- Australian Research Centre for Population Oral Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Mehdi Harorani
- Department of Nursing, School of Nursing, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
| | - Hamidreza Hasani
- Department of Ophthalmology, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | - Abbas M Hassan
- Department of Plastic Surgery, University of Texas, Houston
| | - Soheil Hassanipour
- Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
- Caspian Digestive Disease Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
| | - Mohammed Bheser Hassen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- National Data Management Center for Health (NDMC), Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Khezar Hayat
- Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan
- Department of Pharmacy Administration and Clinical Pharmacy, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | | | - Ramesh Holla
- Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
| | - Nobuyuki Horita
- Department of Pulmonology, Yokohama City University, Yokohama, Japan
- National Human Genome Research Institute (NHGRI), National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Mehdi Hosseinzadeh
- Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
- Department of Computer Science, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | - Salman Hussain
- Czech National Centre for Evidence-Based Healthcare and Knowledge Translation, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
- Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi
- Department of Community Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
- Department of Community Medicine, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Irena M Ilic
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Milena D Ilic
- Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia
| | - Gaetano Isola
- Department of General Surgery and Surgical-Medical Specialties, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | - Abhishek Jaiswal
- Centre for Community Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | - Chinmay T Jani
- Department of Internal Medicine, Mount Auburn Hospital, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
| | - Tahereh Javaheri
- Health Informatics Lab, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Umesh Jayarajah
- Postgraduate Institute of Medicine, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka
- Department of Surgery, National Hospital of Sri Lanka, Colombo, Sri Lanka
| | - Shubha Jayaram
- Department of Biochemistry, Government Medical College, Mysuru, India
| | - Nitin Joseph
- Department of Community Medicine, Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Vidya Kadashetti
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Pathology, Krishna Vishwa Vidyapeeth (Deemed to be University), Karad, India
| | - Eswar Kandaswamy
- Department of Periodontics, School of Dentistry, Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center, New Orleans
| | | | - Ibraheem M Karaye
- School of Health Professions and Human Services, Hofstra University, Hempstead, New York
| | - Joonas H Kauppila
- Surgery Research Unit, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Department of Molecular Medicine and Surgery, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Mohammad Keykhaei
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Students' Scientific Research Center (SSRC), Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Yousef Saleh Khader
- Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
| | - Himanshu Khajuria
- Amity Institute of Forensic Sciences, Amity University, Noida, India
| | - Javad Khanali
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib
- Global Consortium for Public Health Research, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education and Research, Wardha, India
| | | | - Mohammad Amin Khazeei Tabari
- Department of Medicine, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
- MAZUMS Office, Universal Scientific Education and Research Network, Tehran, Iran
| | - Min Seo Kim
- Department of Genomics and Digital Health, Samsung Advanced Institute for Health Sciences & Technology (SAIHST), Seoul, South Korea
- Public Health Center, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Wando, South Korea
| | - Farzad Kompani
- Children's Medical Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Hamid Reza Koohestani
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Saveh University of Medical Sciences, Saveh, Iran
| | - G Anil Kumar
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
| | - Om P Kurmi
- Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Coventry University, Coventry, England, United Kingdom
- Department of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Carlo La Vecchia
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | | | - Iván Landires
- Unit of Genetics and Public Health, Institute of Medical Sciences, Las Tablas, Panama
- Ministry of Health, Herrera, Panama
| | - Savita Lasrado
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Father Muller Medical College, Mangalore, India
| | - Caterina Ledda
- Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | - Yo Han Lee
- Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Massimo Libra
- Department of Biomedical and Biotechnological Sciences, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | - Stephen S Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Stefan Listl
- Department of Dentistry, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
- Department of Translational Health Economics, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Platon D Lopukhov
- Department of Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Ahmad R Mafi
- Department of Clinical Oncology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Rashidul Alam Mahumud
- NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Ahmad Azam Malik
- University Institute of Public Health, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
- Rabigh Faculty of Medicine, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Manu Raj Mathur
- Department of Health Policy Research, Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
- Institute of Population Health Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, England, United Kingdom
| | - Sazan Qadir Maulud
- Department of Biology, College of Science, Salahaddin University, Erbil, Iraq
| | - Jitendra Kumar Meena
- Department of Preventive Oncology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | | | - Tomislav Mestrovic
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- University Centre Varazdin, University North, Varazdin, Croatia
| | - Reza Mirfakhraie
- Department of Genetics, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Awoke Misganaw
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
- National Data Management Center for Health, Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Sanjeev Misra
- Department of Surgical Oncology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | - Prasanna Mithra
- Department of Community Medicine, Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Yousef Mohammad
- Internal Medicine Department, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Mokhtar Mohammadi
- Department of Information Technology, Lebanese French University, Erbil, Iraq
| | - Esmaeil Mohammadi
- Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Faculty of Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Mohammad Ali Moni
- School of Health and Rehabilitation Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Paula Moraga
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Shane Douglas Morrison
- Division of Facial Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Hamid Reza Mozaffari
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Medicine, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Sumaira Mubarik
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Christopher J L Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | - Hasan Nassereldine
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Zuhair S Natto
- Department of Dental Public Health, Faculty of Dentistry, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Oral Health Policy and Epidemiology, School of Dental Medicine, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | | | - Serban Mircea Negru
- Department of Oncology, Victor Babes University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Timisoara, Romania
| | - Haruna Asura Nggada
- Department of Histopathology, University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital, Maiduguri, Nigeria
- Department of Human Pathology, University of Maiduguri, Maiduguri, Nigeria
| | - Hasti Nouraei
- Department of Medical Mycology and Parasitology, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Virginia Nuñez-Samudio
- Unit of Microbiology and Public Health, Institute of Medical Sciences, Las Tablas, Panama
- Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Herrera, Panama
| | - Bogdan Oancea
- Department of Applied Economics and Quantitative Analysis, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Andrew T Olagunju
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Psychiatry, Faculty of Clinical Science, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
| | - Ahmed Omar Bali
- Diplomacy and Public Relations Department, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | | | - Jagadish Rao Padubidri
- Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology, Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | | | - Shahina Pardhan
- Vision and Eye Research Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, England, United Kingdom
| | - Jay Patel
- Global Health Governance Programme, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom
- School of Dentistry, University of Leeds, Leeds, England, United Kingdom
| | - Raffaele Pezzani
- Endocrinology Unit, Department of Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
- Associazione Italiana Ricerca Oncologica di Base (AIROB), Padova, Italy
| | | | - Navid Rabiee
- School of Engineering, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea
| | | | | | - Amir Masoud Rahmani
- Future Technology Research Center, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Yunlin, Taiwan
| | - Vahid Rahmanian
- Department of Public Health, Torbat Jam Faculty of Medical Sciences, Torbat Jam, Iran
| | - Chythra R Rao
- Department of Community Medicine, Kasturba Medical College, Manipal, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
| | - Sowmya J Rao
- Department of Oral Pathology and Microbiology, Sharavathi Dental College and Hospital, Shimogga, India
| | - Goura Kishor Rath
- Department of Radiation Oncology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | - David Laith Rawaf
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Public Health Education and Training, Imperial College London, London, England, United Kingdom
- Inovus Medical, St Helens, England, United Kingdom
| | - Salman Rawaf
- Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, England, United Kingdom
- Academic Public Health England, Public Health England, London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Reza Rawassizadeh
- Department of Computer Science, College of Arts & Sciences, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia
- Department of Immunology and Laboratory Sciences, Sirjan School of Medical Sciences, Sirjan, Iran
- Department of Immunology, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Nazila Rezaei
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Negar Rezaei
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Nima Rezaei
- Research Center for Immunodeficiencies, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Network of Immunity in Infection, Malignancy and Autoimmunity (NIIMA), Universal Scientific Education and Research Network (USERN), Tehran, Iran
| | - Aziz Rezapour
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Abanoub Riad
- Department of Public Health, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
- Czech National Centre for Evidence-based Healthcare and Knowledge Translation, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Thomas J Roberts
- Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Esperanza Romero-Rodríguez
- Clinical and Epidemiological Research in Primary Care (GICEAP), Maimonides Biomedical Research Institute of Cordoba (IMIBIC), Cordoba, Spain
| | - Gholamreza Roshandel
- Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
| | - Manjula S
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, JSS Academy of Higher Education and Research, Mysore, India
| | - Chandan S N
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, JSS Academy of Higher Education and Research, Mysore, India
| | - Basema Saddik
- Sharjah Institute for Medical Research, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Mohammad Reza Saeb
- Department of Polymer Technology, Faculty of Chemistry, Gdańsk University of Technology, Gdańsk, Poland
| | - Umar Saeed
- International Center of Medical Sciences Research, Islamabad, Pakistan
- Multidisciplinary Laboratory Foundation University School of Health Sciences (FUSH), Foundation University, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Mohsen Safaei
- Advanced Dental Sciences Research Center, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Maryam Sahebazzamani
- Department of Medical Biochemistry, Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences, Rafsanjan, Iran
- Medical Laboratory Sciences, Sirjan School of Medical Sciences, Sirjan, Iran
| | - Amirhossein Sahebkar
- Applied Biomedical Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
- Biotechnology Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | | | - Abdallah M Samy
- Department of Entomology, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
- Medical Ain Shams Research Institute (MARSI), Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Milena M Santric-Milicevic
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
- School of Public Health and Health Management, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Brijesh Sathian
- Geriatric and Long Term Care Department, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Faculty of Health and Social Sciences, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth, England, United Kingdom
| | - Maheswar Satpathy
- UGC Centre of Advanced Study in Psychology, Utkal University, Bhubaneswar, India
- Udyam-Global Association for Sustainable Development, Bhubaneswar, India
| | - Mario Šekerija
- Department of Medical Statistics, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
- Department of Epidemiology and Prevention of Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases, Croatian Institute of Public Health, Zagreb, Croatia
| | | | - Allen Seylani
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Omid Shafaat
- Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Johns Hopkins Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland
- Department of Radiology and Interventional Neuroradiology, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Hamid R Shahsavari
- Department of Chemistry, Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS), Zanjan, Iran
| | - Erfan Shamsoddin
- Department of Oral Health, Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center (NCDRC), Tehran, Iran
- Non-Communicable Diseases Committee, National Institute for Medical Research Development (NIMAD), Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Jeevan K Shetty
- Department of Biochemistry, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland Medical University of Bahrain, Busaiteen, Bahrain
| | - K M Shivakumar
- Department of Public Health Dentistry, Krishna Vishwa Vidyapeeth (Deemed to be University), Karad, India
| | - Parnian Shobeiri
- Faculty of Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of International Studies, Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center (NCDRC), Tehran, Iran
| | - Seyed Afshin Shorofi
- Department of Medical-Surgical Nursing, Nasibeh School of Nursing and Midwifery, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
- College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Sunil Shrestha
- School of Pharmacy, Monash University, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia
| | | | - Paramdeep Singh
- Department of Radiodiagnosis, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bathinda, India
| | - Jasvinder A Singh
- Heersink School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham
- Department of Medicine Service, US Department of Veterans Affairs, Birmingham, Alabama
| | - Garima Singh
- Department of Community Medicine, Lady Hardinge Medical College, New Delhi, India
- Department of Community Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | - Dhirendra Narain Sinha
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Preventive Oncology, Patna, India
- Department of Epidemiology, Healis Sekhsaria Institute for Public Health, Mumbai, India
| | - Yonatan Solomon
- Department of Nursing, Dire Dawa University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
| | - Muhammad Suleman
- Center for Biotechnology and Microbiology, University of Swat, Mingora, Pakistan
- School of Life Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | | | | | - Iman M Talaat
- Clinical Sciences Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
- Pathology Department, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | - Ker-Kan Tan
- Department of Surgery, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Abdelghani Tbakhi
- Department of Cell Therapy and Applied Genomics, King Hussein Cancer Center, Amman, Jordan
| | - Arulmani Thiyagarajan
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology, Bremen, Germany
| | - Amir Tiyuri
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Birjand University of Medical Sciences, Birjand, Iran
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone
- Saveetha Dental College and Hospitals, Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences (SIMATS), Chennai, India
- Modestum LTD, Eastbourne, England, United Kingdom
| | - Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan
- Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Bay Vo
- Faculty of Information Technology, Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology (HUTECH), Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Simona Ruxandra Volovat
- Department of Medical Oncology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy "Grigore T Popa" Iaşi, Iaşi, Romania
- Department of Medical Oncology, Regional Institute of Oncology, Iaşi, Romania
| | - Cong Wang
- Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee
| | - Ronny Westerman
- Competence Center of Mortality-Follow-Up of the German National Cohort, Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany
| | - Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Allied Sciences, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka, Anuradhapura, Sri Lanka
| | - Hong Xiao
- School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Zhejiang, China
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
| | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Deniz Yuce
- Hacettepe University Cancer Institute, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Ismaeel Yunusa
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Outcomes Sciences, College of Pharmacy, University of South Carolina, Columbia
| | - Vesna Zadnik
- Epidemiology and Cancer Registry Sector, Institute of Oncology Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Iman Zare
- Research and Development Department, Sina Medical Biochemistry Technologies, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Zhi-Jiang Zhang
- School of Medicine, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Mohammad Zoladl
- Department of Nursing, Yasuj University of Medical Sciences, Yasuj, Iran
| | - Lisa M Force
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
- Division of Hematology-Oncology, Department of Pediatrics, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Fernando N Hugo
- Department of Preventive and Social Dentistry, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil
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Wu D, Jin Y, Xing Y, Abate MD, Abbasian M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbasi-Kangevari Z, Abd-Allah F, Abdelmasseh M, Abdollahifar MA, Abdulah DM, Abedi A, Abedi V, Abidi H, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abuabara K, Abyadeh M, Addo IY, Adeniji KN, Adepoju AV, Adesina MA, Sakilah Adnani QE, Afarideh M, Aghamiri S, Agodi A, Agrawal A, Aguilera Arriagada CE, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad S, Ahmad S, Ahmadi A, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Aithala JP, Ajadi AA, Ajami M, Akbarzadeh-Khiavi M, Alahdab F, AlBataineh MT, Alemi S, Saeed Al-Gheethi AA, Ali L, Alif SM, Almazan JU, Almustanyir S, Alqahtani JS, Alqasmi I, Khan Altaf IU, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Amani R, Amu H, Amusa GA, Andrei CL, Ansar A, Ansariniya H, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Arefnezhad R, Arulappan J, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashraf T, Atata JA, Athari SS, Atlaw D, Wahbi Atout MM, Aujayeb A, Awan AT, Ayatollahi H, Azadnajafabad S, Azzam AY, Badawi A, Badiye AD, Bagherieh S, Baig AA, Bantie BB, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Barker-Collo SL, Barone-Adesi F, Batra K, Bayileyegn NS, Behnoush AH, Belgaumi UI, Bemanalizadeh M, Bensenor IM, Beyene KA, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Bhaskar S, Bhat AN, Bitaraf S, Bitra VR, Boloor A, Bora K, Botelho JS, Buchbinder R, Calina D, Cámera LA, Carvalho AF, Kai Chan JS, Chattu VK, Abebe EC, Chichagi F, Choi S, Chou TC, Chu DT, Coberly K, Costa VM, Couto RA, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai X, Damiani G, Dascalu AM, Dashti M, Debela SA, Dellavalle RP, Demetriades AK, Demlash AA, Deng X, Desai HD, Desai R, Rahman Dewan SM, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Diaz D, Dibas M, Dinis-Oliveira RJ, Diress M, Do TC, Doan DK, Dodangeh M, Dodangeh M, Dongarwar D, Dube J, Dziedzic AM, Ed-Dra A, Edinur HA, Eissazade N, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, Elemam NM, Elhadi M, Elmehrath AO, Abdou Elmeligy OA, Emamverdi M, Emeto TI, Esayas HL, Eshetu HB, Etaee F, Fagbamigbe AF, Faghani S, Fakhradiyev IR, Fatehizadeh A, Fathi M, Feizkhah A, Fekadu G, Fereidouni M, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Ferrara P, Fetensa G, Filip I, Fischer F, Foroutan B, Foroutan M, Fukumoto T, Ganesan B, Belete Gemeda BN, Ghamari SH, Ghasemi M, Gholamalizadeh M, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Goldust M, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Goudarzi H, Guan SY, Guo Y, Gupta B, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haddadi R, Hadi NR, Halwani R, Haque S, Hasan I, Hashempour R, Hassan A, Hassan TS, Hassanzadeh S, Hassen MB, Haubold J, Hayat K, Heidari G, Heidari M, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Herteliu C, Hessami K, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Holla R, Hosseini MS, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Iranmehr A, Iravanpour F, Ismail NE, Iwagami M, Iwu CC, Jacob L, Jafarinia M, Jafarzadeh A, Jahankhani K, Jahrami H, Jakovljevic M, Jamshidi E, Jani CT, Janodia MD, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jeganathan J, Jonas JB, Joseph A, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Vaishali K, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kaliyadan F, Kalroozi F, Kamal VK, Kandel A, Kandel H, Kanungo S, Karami J, Karaye IM, Karimi H, Kasraei H, Kazemian S, Kebede SA, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khamesipour F, Khan EA, Khan IA, Khan M, Khan MJ, Khan MA, Khan MA, Khatatbeh H, Khatatbeh MM, Khateri S, Khayat Kashani HR, Kim MS, Kisa A, Kisa S, Koh HY, Kolkhir P, Korzh O, Kotnis AL, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kuddus M, Kulkarni VV, Kumar N, Kundu S, Kurmi OP, La Vecchia C, Lahariya C, Laksono T, Lám J, Latief K, Lauriola P, Lawal BK, Thu Le TT, Bich Le TT, Lee M, Lee SW, Lee WC, Lee YH, Lenzi J, Levi M, Li W, Ligade VS, Lim SS, Liu G, Liu X, Llanaj E, Lo CH, Machado VS, Maghazachi AA, Mahmoud MA, Mai TA, Majeed A, Sanaye PM, Makram OM, Rad EM, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Mallhi TH, Malta DC, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Martorell M, Masoudi S, Masoumi SZ, Mathangasinghe Y, Mathews E, Mathioudakis AG, Maugeri A, Mayeli M, Carabeo Medina JR, Meles GG, Mendes JJ, Menezes RG, Mestrovic T, Michalek IM, Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá AC, Mihretie ET, Nhat Minh LH, Mirfakhraie R, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mohamadkhani A, Mohamed NS, Mohammadi F, Mohammadi S, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mohan S, Mohseni A, Mokdad AH, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Moni MA, Moniruzzaman M, Moradi Y, Morovatdar N, Mostafavi E, Mousavi P, Mukoro GD, Mulita A, Mulu GB, Murillo-Zamora E, Musaigwa F, Mustafa G, Muthu S, Nainu F, Nangia V, Swamy SN, Natto ZS, Navaraj P, Nayak BP, Nazri-Panjaki A, Negash H, Nematollahi MH, Nguyen DH, Hien Nguyen HT, Nguyen HQ, Nguyen PT, Nguyen VT, Niazi RK, Nikolouzakis TK, Nnyanzi LA, Noreen M, Nzoputam CI, Nzoputam OJ, Oancea B, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okonji OC, Okwute PG, Olagunju AT, Olatubi MI, Olufadewa II, Ordak M, Otstavnov N, Owolabi MO, Mahesh P, Padubidri JR, Pak A, Pakzad R, Palladino R, Pana A, Pantazopoulos I, Papadopoulou P, Pardhan S, Parthasarathi A, Pashaei A, Patel J, Pathan AR, Patil S, Paudel U, Pawar S, Pedersini P, Pensato U, Pereira DM, Pereira J, Pereira MO, Pereira RB, Peres MF, Perianayagam A, Perna S, Petcu IR, Pezeshki PS, Pham HT, Philip AK, Piradov MA, Podder I, Podder V, Poddighe D, Sady Prates EJ, Qattea I, Radfar A, Raee P, Rafiei A, Raggi A, Rahim F, Rahimi M, Rahimifard M, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MO, Ur Rahman MH, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmani AM, Rahmani M, Rahmani S, Rahmanian V, Ramasubramani P, Rancic N, Rao IR, Rashedi S, Rashid AM, Ravikumar N, Rawaf S, Mohamed Redwan EM, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Ribeiro D, Rodrigues M, Buendia Rodriguez JA, Roever L, Romero-Rodríguez E, Saad AM, Saddik B, Sadeghian S, Saeed U, Safary A, Safdarian M, Safi SZ, Saghazadeh A, Sagoe D, Sharif-Askari FS, Sharif-Askari NS, Sahebkar A, Sahoo H, Sahraian MA, Sajid MR, Sakhamuri S, Sakshaug JW, Saleh MA, Salehi L, Salehi S, Farrokhi AS, Samadzadeh S, Samargandy S, Samieefar N, Samy AM, Sanadgol N, Sanjeev RK, Sawhney M, Saya GK, Schuermans A, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Sethi Y, Shafie M, Shah H, Shahid I, Shahid S, Shaikh MA, Sharfaei S, Sharma M, Shayan M, Shehata HS, Sheikh A, Shetty JK, Shin JI, Shirkoohi R, Shitaye NA, Shivakumar K, Shivarov V, Shobeiri P, Siabani S, Sibhat MM, Siddig EE, Simpson CR, Sinaei E, Singh H, Singh I, Singh JA, Singh P, Singh S, Siraj MS, Al Mamun Sohag A, Solanki R, Solikhah S, Solomon Y, Soltani-Zangbar MS, Sun J, Szeto MD, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei SM, Tabish M, Taheri E, Tahvildari A, Talaat IM, Lukenze Tamuzi JJ, Tan KK, Tat NY, Oliaee RT, Tavasol A, Temsah MH, Thangaraju P, Tharwat S, Tibebu NS, Vera Ticoalu JH, Tillawi T, Tiruye TY, Tiyuri A, Tovani-Palone MR, Tripathi M, Tsegay GM, Tualeka AR, Ty SS, Ubah CS, Ullah S, Ullah S, Umair M, Umakanthan S, Upadhyay E, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, Tahbaz SV, Valizadeh R, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Verras GI, Villafañe JH, Vlassov V, Vo DC, Waheed Y, Waris A, Welegebrial BG, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Willekens B, Woldegeorgis BZ, Woldemariam M, Xiao H, Yada DY, Yahya G, Yang L, Yazdanpanah F, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, You Y, Zahir M, Zaidi SS, Zangiabadian M, Zare I, Zeineddine MA, Zemedikun DT, Zeru NG, Zhang C, Zhao H, Zhong C, Zielińska M, Zoladl M, Zumla A, Guo C, Tam LS. Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019. EClinicalMedicine 2023; 64:102193. [PMID: 37731935 PMCID: PMC10507198 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102193] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2023] [Revised: 08/15/2023] [Accepted: 08/16/2023] [Indexed: 09/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Findings In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR. Interpretation The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively. Funding The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).
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Farhadi K, Santella AJ, Karaye IM. Trends in nasopharyngeal cancer mortality in the United States, 1999-2020. Community Dent Oral Epidemiol 2023; 51:1037-1044. [PMID: 36484336 DOI: 10.1111/cdoe.12829] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2022] [Revised: 11/25/2022] [Accepted: 11/28/2022] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The incidence of nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) has been declining in the United States (US) in recent years. However, little is known about the latest trends in NPC mortality in the US population. This study aimed to examine the trends in NPC mortality rate by age, sex, race and ethnicity and US Census Region from 1999 to 2020. METHODS Mortality data were extracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) database. Decedents whose cause of death was NPC were identified using the International Classification of Diseases Codes, 10th Revision: C11.0-C11.9. Trends in age adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) from NPC were assessed using a joinpoint regression model. Annual Percentage Changes (APC) and Average Annual Percentage Changes were examined overall and by age, sex, race and ethnicity and census region. RESULTS From 1999 through 2020, a total of 14 534 NPC deaths were recorded in the US (AAMR = 0.2 per 100 000; 95% CI: 0.2, 0.2). Overall trends remained stationary throughout the study period. Since 2006, recent trends declined by 6.1% per year (95% CI: -8.4, -3.7) among Non-Hispanic Whites, and by 2.7% per year among Non-Hispanic Blacks, Asians/Pacific Islanders and Hispanics. Trends either stabilized or declined by sex, age and US Census Region. Similar results were obtained when the analysis was restricted to decedents aged 65 years and above. CONCLUSIONS Stationary or declining trends in NPC mortality could be due to the falling incidence of the disease and/or advances in medical diagnosis and treatment. Considering the enigmatic nature of NPC, future studies should explore the genetic and sociodemographic factors associated with the trends reported in this study.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kameron Farhadi
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, New York, USA
| | - Anthony J Santella
- Public Health Program, Fairfield University, Fairfield, Connecticut, USA
| | - Ibraheem M Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, New York, USA
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Black RJ, Cross M, Haile LM, Culbreth GT, Steinmetz JD, Hagins H, Kopec JA, Brooks PM, Woolf AD, Ong KL, Kopansky-Giles DR, Dreinhoefer KE, Betteridge N, Aali A, Abbasifard M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abdurehman AM, Abedi A, Abidi H, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Zaid A, Adamu K, Addo IY, Adesina MA, Adnani QES, Afzal MS, Ahmed A, Aithala JP, Akhlaghdoust M, Alemayehu A, Alvand S, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amu H, Antony B, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Arulappan J, Ashraf T, Athari SS, Azadnajafabad S, Badawi A, Baghcheghi N, Baig AA, Balta AB, Banach M, Banik PC, Barrow A, Bashiri A, Bearne LM, Bekele A, Bensenor IM, Berhie AY, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Bhat AN, Bhojaraja VS, Bitaraf S, Bodicha BBA, Botelho JS, Briggs AM, Buchbinder R, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Charalampous P, Chattu VK, Coberly K, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai X, de Luca K, Dessalegn FN, Dessie G, Dhimal M, Digesa LE, Diress M, Doku PN, Edinur HA, Ekholuenetale M, Elhadi M, El-Sherbiny YM, Etaee F, Ezzeddini R, Faghani S, Filip I, Fischer F, Fukumoto T, Ganesan B, Gebremichael MA, Gerema U, Getachew ME, Ghashghaee A, Gill TK, Gupta B, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Halwani R, Hannan MA, Haque S, Harlianto NI, Harorani M, Hasaballah AI, Hassen MB, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari G, Hezam K, Hill CL, Hiraike Y, Horita N, Hoveidaei AH, Hsiao AK, Hsieh E, Hussain S, Iavicoli I, Ilic IM, Islam SMS, Ismail NE, Iwagami M, Jakovljevic M, Jani CT, Jeganathan J, Joseph N, Kadashetti V, Kandel H, Kanko TK, Karaye IM, Khajuria H, Khan MJ, Khan MAB, Khanali J, Khatatbeh MM, Khubchandani J, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kolahi AA, Kompani F, Koohestani HR, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kuddus M, Kumar N, Kuttikkattu A, Larijani B, Lim SS, Lo J, Machado VS, Mahajan PB, Majeed A, Malakan Rad E, Malik AA, Mansournia MA, Mathews E, Mendes JJ, Mentis AFA, Mesregah MK, Mestrovic T, Mirghaderi SP, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mohamadkhani A, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Moniruzzaman M, Montasir AA, Mulu GB, Murillo-Zamora E, Murray CJL, Mustafa G, Naghavi M, Nair TS, Naqvi AA, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Neupane S, Nguyen CT, Niazi RK, Nzoputam OJ, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okonji OC, Olufadewa II, Owolabi MO, Pacheco-Barrios K, Padubidri JR, Patel J, Pathan AR, Pawar S, Pedersini P, Perianayagam A, Petcu IR, Qattea I, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahman MHU, Rahmanian V, Rashedi V, Rashidi MM, Ratan ZA, Rawaf S, Razeghinia MS, Redwan EMM, Renzaho AMN, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Riad A, Saad AMA, Saddik B, Saeed U, Safary A, Sahebazzamani M, Sahebkar A, Sahoo H, Salek Farrokhi A, Saqib MAN, Seylani A, Shahabi S, Shaikh MA, Shashamo BB, Shetty A, Shetty JK, Shigematsu M, Shivarov V, Shobeiri P, Sibhat MM, Sinaei E, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh P, Singh S, Siraj MS, Skryabina AA, Slater H, Smith AE, Solomon Y, Soltani-Zangbar MS, Tabish M, Tan KK, Tat NY, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tharwat S, Tovani-Palone MR, Tusa BS, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valdez PR, Valizadeh R, Vaziri S, Vollset SE, Wu AM, Yada DY, Yehualashet SS, Yonemoto N, You Y, Yunusa I, Zangiabadian M, Zare I, Zarrintan A, Zhang ZJ, Zhong C, Zoladl M, Vos T, March LM. Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Rheumatol 2023; 5:e594-e610. [PMID: 37795020 PMCID: PMC10546867 DOI: 10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00211-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/06/2023]
Abstract
Background Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. Methods Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates. Findings In 2020, an estimated 17·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15·8-20·3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208·8 cases (186·8-241·1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14·1% (12·7-15·4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-to-male prevalence ratio 2·45 [2·40-2·47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0·47 (0·41-0·54) per 100 000 population (38 300 global deaths [33 500-44 000]), a 23·8% (17·5-29·3) decrease from 1990 to 2020. The 2020 DALY count was 3 060 000 (2 320 000-3 860 000), with an age-standardised DALY rate of 36·4 (27·6-45·9) per 100 000 population. YLDs accounted for 76·4% (68·3-81·0) of DALYs. Smoking risk attribution for rheumatoid arthritis DALYs was 7·1% (3·6-10·3). We forecast that 31·7 million (25·8-39·0) individuals will be living with rheumatoid arthritis worldwide by 2050. Interpretation Rheumatoid arthritis mortality has decreased globally over the past three decades. Global age-standardised prevalence rate and YLDs have increased over the same period, and the number of cases is projected to continue to increase to the year 2050. Improved access to early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis globally is required to reduce the future burden of the disease. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.
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Aguilar GR, Swetschinski LR, Weaver ND, Ikuta KS, Mestrovic T, Gray AP, Chung E, Wool EE, Han C, Hayoon AG, Araki DT, Abdollahi A, Abu-Zaid A, Adnan M, Agarwal R, Dehkordi JA, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Azzam AY, Berezin EN, Bhagavathula AS, Bhutta ZA, Bhuyan SS, Browne AJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Chandrasekar EK, Ching PR, Dai X, Darmstadt GL, De la Hoz FP, Diao N, Diaz D, Mombaque dos Santos W, Eyre D, Garcia C, Haines-Woodhouse G, Hassen MB, Henry NJ, Hopkins S, Hossain MM, Iregbu KC, Iwu CC, Jacobs JA, Janko MM, Jones R, Karaye IM, Khalil IA, Khan IA, Khan T, Khubchandani J, Khusuwan S, Kisa A, Koyaweda GW, Krapp F, Kumaran EA, Kyu HH, Lim SS, Liu X, Luby S, Maharaj SB, Maronga C, Martorell M, May J, McManigal B, Mokdad AH, Moore CE, Mostafavi E, Murillo-Zamora E, Mussi-Pinhata MM, Nanavati R, Nassereldine H, Natto ZS, Qamar FN, Nuñez-Samudio V, Ochoa TJ, Ojo-Akosile TR, Olagunju AT, Olivas-Martinez A, Ortiz-Brizuela E, Ounchanum P, Paredes JL, Patthipati VS, Pawar S, Pereira M, Pollard A, Ponce-De-Leon A, Sady Prates EJ, Qattea I, Reyes LF, Roilides E, Rosenthal VD, Rudd KE, Sangchan W, Seekaew S, Seylani A, Shababi N, Sham S, Sifuentes-Osornio J, Singh H, Stergachis A, Tasak N, Tat NY, Thaiprakong A, Valdez PR, Yada DY, Yunusa I, Zastrozhin MS, Hay SI, Dolecek C, Sartorius B, Murray CJ, Naghavi M. The burden of antimicrobial resistance in the Americas in 2019: a cross-country systematic analysis. Lancet Reg Health Am 2023; 25:100561. [PMID: 37727594 PMCID: PMC10505822 DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2023.100561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2023] [Revised: 06/22/2023] [Accepted: 07/10/2023] [Indexed: 09/21/2023]
Abstract
Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an urgent global health challenge and a critical threat to modern health care. Quantifying its burden in the WHO Region of the Americas has been elusive-despite the region's long history of resistance surveillance. This study provides comprehensive estimates of AMR burden in the Americas to assess this growing health threat. Methods We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with AMR for 23 bacterial pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations for countries in the WHO Region of the Americas in 2019. We obtained data from mortality registries, surveillance systems, hospital systems, systematic literature reviews, and other sources, and applied predictive statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all countries in the Americas. Five broad components were the backbone of our approach: the number of deaths where infection had a role, the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of pathogens resistant to an antibiotic class, and the excess risk of mortality (or duration of an infection) associated with this resistance. We then used these components to estimate the disease burden by applying two counterfactual scenarios: deaths attributable to AMR (compared to an alternative scenario where resistant infections are replaced with susceptible ones), and deaths associated with AMR (compared to an alternative scenario where resistant infections would not occur at all). We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity. Findings We estimated 569,000 deaths (95% UI 406,000-771,000) associated with bacterial AMR and 141,000 deaths (99,900-196,000) attributable to bacterial AMR among the 35 countries in the WHO Region of the Americas in 2019. Lower respiratory and thorax infections, as a syndrome, were responsible for the largest fatal burden of AMR in the region, with 189,000 deaths (149,000-241,000) associated with resistance, followed by bloodstream infections (169,000 deaths [94,200-278,000]) and peritoneal/intra-abdominal infections (118,000 deaths [78,600-168,000]). The six leading pathogens (by order of number of deaths associated with resistance) were Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Acinetobacter baumannii. Together, these pathogens were responsible for 452,000 deaths (326,000-608,000) associated with AMR. Methicillin-resistant S. aureus predominated as the leading pathogen-drug combination in 34 countries for deaths attributable to AMR, while aminopenicillin-resistant E. coli was the leading pathogen-drug combination in 15 countries for deaths associated with AMR. Interpretation Given the burden across different countries, infectious syndromes, and pathogen-drug combinations, AMR represents a substantial health threat in the Americas. Countries with low access to antibiotics and basic health-care services often face the largest age-standardised mortality rates associated with and attributable to AMR in the region, implicating specific policy interventions. Evidence from this study can guide mitigation efforts that are tailored to the needs of each country in the region while informing decisions regarding funding and resource allocation. Multisectoral and joint cooperative efforts among countries will be a key to success in tackling AMR in the Americas. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.
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Rane A, Nechi RN, Imam M, Zoni CR, Ndikumukiza C, Karaye IM, Yunusa I, Alanzi A. Comparative value of dapagliflozin vs empagliflozin in patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction: A cost-effectiveness analysis. J Manag Care Spec Pharm 2023; 29:1045-1053. [PMID: 37610112 PMCID: PMC10508839 DOI: 10.18553/jmcp.2023.29.9.1045] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/24/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) imposes a high disease burden on patients, primarily because of multimorbidity and frequent hospitalizations. Recently, the American College of Cardiology Expert Consensus recommended treating all patients diagnosed with HFpEF with a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, such as dapagliflozin or empagliflozin, to reduce the risk of cardiovascular death and hospitalization and improve health status. However, managing HFpEF can be expensive, highlighting the need to assess therapeutic alternatives that can minimize health care costs while optimizing patient outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To compare the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin vs empagliflozin in managing patients with HFpEF from the US health care system perspective. METHODS: We developed a Markov model to simulate a cohort of patients with HFpEF (defined as having a left ventricular ejection fraction ≥ 50%) treated with dapagliflozin or empagliflozin. Transition probabilities between 3 health states (HFpEF, hospitalization for heart failure, and death), costs, and quality of life weight input variables were obtained from the literature. In the base-case analysis, we estimated total expected costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over a lifetime horizon. All future expected costs and QALYs were discounted at the annual rate of 3%. We conducted sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the robustness of the cost-effectiveness model findings. RESULTS: Dapagliflozin had an incremental expected lifetime cost of $29,896 compared with empagliflozin, resulting in an ICER of $36,902/QALY. Value-based price threshold analysis suggested that for empagliflozin to be cost-effective, it would need a 29% discount on its annual price. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, dapagliflozin would be the most preferred cost-effective option at willingness-to-pay thresholds of $50,000/QALY about 72% of the time. CONCLUSIONS: This cost-effectiveness analysis showed that, from the US health care system perspective, dapagliflozin was more cost-effective than empagliflozin, and its uptake may enhance long-term outcomes in patients with HFpEF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amey Rane
- Massachusetts College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences, Boston
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Ismaeel Yunusa
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Outcomes Sciences and Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, University of South Carolina College of Pharmacy, Columbia
| | - Abdullah Alanzi
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy, College of Pharmacy, Jouf University, Sakaka, Al-Jouf Province, Saudi Arabia
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Steinmetz JD, Culbreth GT, Haile LM, Rafferty Q, Lo J, Fukutaki KG, Cruz JA, Smith AE, Vollset SE, Brooks PM, Cross M, Woolf AD, Hagins H, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abedi A, Ackerman IN, Amu H, Antony B, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Argaw AM, Artamonov AA, Ashraf T, Barrow A, Bearne LM, Bensenor IM, Berhie AY, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhojaraja VS, Bijani A, Briant PS, Briggs AM, Butt NS, Charan J, Chattu VK, Cicuttini FM, Coberly K, Dadras O, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, de Luca K, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Dianatinasab M, Dreinhoefer KE, Elhadi M, Farooque U, Farpour HR, Filip I, Fischer F, Freitas M, Ganesan B, Gemeda BNB, Getachew T, Ghamari SH, Ghashghaee A, Gill TK, Golechha M, Golinelli D, Gupta B, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haddadi R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Halwani R, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Harlianto NI, Haro JM, Hartvigsen J, Hay SI, Hebert JJ, Heidari G, Hosseini MS, Hosseinzadeh M, Hsiao AK, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Jacob L, Jayawardena R, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Joseph N, Kandel H, Karaye IM, Khan MJ, Kim YJ, Kolahi AA, Korzh O, Koteeswaran R, Krishnamoorthy V, Kumar GA, Kumar N, Lee SW, Lim SS, Lobo SW, Lucchetti G, Malekpour MR, Malik AA, Mandarano-Filho LGG, Martini S, Mentis AFA, Mesregah MK, Mestrovic T, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mokdad AH, Momtazmanesh S, Morrison SD, Murray CJL, Nassereldine H, Netsere HB, Neupane Kandel S, Owolabi MO, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Pawar S, Pedersini P, Pereira J, Radfar A, Rashidi MM, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Rayegani SM, Ribeiro D, Roever L, Saddik B, Sahebkar A, Salehi S, Sanchez Riera L, Sanmarchi F, Santric-Milicevic MM, Shahabi S, Shaikh MA, Shaker E, Shannawaz M, Sharma R, Sharma S, Shetty JK, Shiri R, Shobeiri P, Silva DAS, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh S, Skou ST, Slater H, Soltani-Zangbar MS, Starodubova AV, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valdez PR, Vo B, Vu LG, Wang YP, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yonemoto N, Yunusa I, March LM, Ong KL, Vos T, Kopec JA. Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990-2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Rheumatol 2023; 5:e508-e522. [PMID: 37675071 PMCID: PMC10477960 DOI: 10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00163-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 43.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/08/2023]
Abstract
Background Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021-30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050. Methods In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip osteoarthritis, 42 countries for hand osteoarthritis, and US insurance claims for all of the osteoarthritis sites, including the other types of osteoarthritis category. The reference case definition was symptomatic, radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis. Studies using alternative definitions from the reference case definition (for example self-reported osteoarthritis) were adjusted to reference using regression models. Osteoarthritis severity distribution was obtained from a pooled meta-analysis of sources using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index. Final prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model. Findings Globally, 595 million (95% uncertainty interval 535-656) people had osteoarthritis in 2020, equal to 7·6% (95% UI 6·8-8·4) of the global population, and an increase of 132·2% (130·3-134·1) in total cases since 1990. Compared with 2020, cases of osteoarthritis are projected to increase 74·9% (59·4-89·9) for knee, 48·6% (35·9-67·1) for hand, 78·6% (57·7-105·3) for hip, and 95·1% (68·1-135·0) for other types of osteoarthritis by 2050. The global age-standardised rate of YLDs for total osteoarthritis was 255·0 YLDs (119·7-557·2) per 100 000 in 2020, a 9·5% (8·6-10·1) increase from 1990 (233·0 YLDs per 100 000, 109·3-510·8). For adults aged 70 years and older, osteoarthritis was the seventh ranked cause of YLDs. Age-standardised prevalence in 2020 was more than 5·5% in all world regions, ranging from 5677·4 (5029·8-6318·1) per 100 000 in southeast Asia to 8632·7 (7852·0-9469·1) per 100 000 in high-income Asia Pacific. Knee was the most common site for osteoarthritis. High BMI contributed to 20·4% (95% UI -1·7 to 36·6) of osteoarthritis. Potentially modifiable risk factors for osteoarthritis such as recreational injury prevention and occupational hazards have not yet been explored in GBD modelling. Interpretation Age-standardised YLDs attributable to osteoarthritis are continuing to rise and will lead to substantial increases in case numbers because of population growth and ageing, and because there is no effective cure for osteoarthritis. The demand on health systems for care of patients with osteoarthritis, including joint replacements, which are highly effective for late stage osteoarthritis in hips and knees, will rise in all regions, but might be out of reach and lead to further health inequity for individuals and countries unable to afford them. Much more can and should be done to prevent people getting to that late stage. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.
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Wunrow HY, Bender RG, Vongpradith A, Sirota SB, Swetschinski LR, Novotney A, Gray AP, Ikuta KS, Sharara F, Wool EE, Aali A, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdollahi A, Abdul Aziz JM, Abidi H, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Adamu LH, Adane TD, Addo IY, Adegboye OA, Adekiya TA, Adnan M, Adnani QES, Afzal S, Aghamiri S, Aghdam ZB, Agodi A, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad S, Ahmadzade M, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed JQ, Ahmed MS, Akinosoglou K, Aklilu A, Akonde M, Alahdab F, AL-Ahdal TMA, Alanezi FM, Albelbeisi AH, Alemayehu TBB, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Gheethi AAS, Ali A, Ali BA, Ali L, Ali SS, Alimohamadi Y, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Almustanyir S, Al-Raddadi RM, Alvis-Guzman N, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Ameyaw EK, Ancuceanu R, Ansar A, Ansari G, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Artamonov AA, Arulappan J, Aruleba RT, Asaduzzaman M, Atalell KA, Athari SS, Atlaw D, Atout MMW, Attia S, Awoke T, Ayalew MK, Ayana TM, Ayele AD, Azadnajafabad S, Azizian K, Badar M, Badiye AD, Baghcheghi N, Bagheri M, Bagherieh S, Bahadory S, Baig AA, Barac A, Barati S, Bardhan M, Basharat Z, Bashiri A, Basnyat B, Bassat Q, Basu S, Bayileyegn NS, Bedi N, Behnoush AH, Bekel AA, Belete MA, Bello OO, Bhagavathula AS, Bhandari D, Bhardwaj P, Bhaskar S, Bhat AN, Bijani A, Bineshfar N, Boloor A, Bouaoud S, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Cámera LA, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Cernigliaro A, Charan J, Chattu VK, Ching PR, Chopra H, Choudhari SG, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Couto RAS, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Das S, Dash NR, Dashti M, De la Hoz FP, Debela SA, Dejen D, Dejene H, Demeke D, Demeke FM, Demessa BH, Demetriades AK, Demissie S, Dereje D, Dervišević E, Desai HD, Dessie AM, Desta F, Dhama K, Djalalinia S, Do TC, Dodangeh M, Dodangeh M, Dominguez RMV, Dongarwar D, Dsouza HL, Durojaiye OC, Dziedzic AM, Ekat MH, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, El Sayed Zaki M, El-Abid H, Elhadi M, El-Hajj VG, El-Huneidi W, El-Sakka AA, Esayas HL, Fagbamigbe AF, Falahi S, Fares J, Fatehizadeh A, Fatima SAF, Feasey NA, Fekadu G, Fetensa G, Feyissa D, Fischer F, Foroutan B, Gaal PA, Gadanya MA, Gaipov A, Ganesan B, Gebrehiwot M, Gebrekidan KG, Gebremeskel TG, Gedef GM, Gela YY, Gerema U, Gessner BD, Getachew ME, Ghadiri K, Ghaffari K, Ghamari SH, Ghanbari R, Ghazy RMM, Ghozali G, Gizaw ABAB, Glushkova EV, Goldust M, Golechha M, Guadie HA, Guled RA, Gupta M, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gupta VK, Hadi NR, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haller S, Hamidi S, Haque S, Harapan H, Hasaballah AI, Hasan I, Hasani H, Hasanian M, Hassankhani H, Hassen MB, Hayat K, Heidari M, Heidari-Foroozan M, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Hezam K, Holla R, Horita N, Hossain MM, Hosseini MS, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc S, Hussain S, Hussein NR, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Imam MT, Iregbu KC, Ismail NE, Iwu CCD, Jaja C, Jakovljevic M, Jamshidi E, Javadi Mamaghani A, Javidnia J, Jokar M, Jomehzadeh N, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir Z, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kamal VK, Kandel H, Karaye IM, Karch A, Karimi H, Kaur H, Kaur N, Keykhaei M, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khan A, Khan IA, Khan M, Khan T, Khatab K, Khatatbeh MM, Khayat Kashani HR, Khubchandani J, Kim MS, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kompani F, Koohestani HR, Kothari N, Krishan K, Krishnamoorthy Y, Kulimbet M, Kumar M, Kumaran SD, Kuttikkattu A, Kwarteng A, Laksono T, Landires I, Laryea DO, Lawal BK, Le TTT, Ledda C, Lee SW, Lee S, Lema GK, Levi M, Lim SS, Liu X, Lopes G, Lutzky Saute R, Machado Teixeira PH, Mahmoodpoor A, Mahmoud MA, Malakan Rad E, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Martinez-Guerra BA, Martorell M, Mathur V, Mayeli M, Medina JRC, Melese A, Memish ZA, Mentis AFA, Merza MA, Mestrovic T, Michalek IM, Minh LHN, Mirahmadi A, Mirmosayyeb O, Misganaw A, Misra AK, Moghadasi J, Mohamed NS, Mohammad Y, Mohammadi E, Mohammed S, Mojarrad Sani M, Mojiri-forushani H, Mokdad AH, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Moni MA, Mossialos E, Mostafavi E, Motaghinejad M, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mubarik S, Muccioli L, Muhammad JS, Mulita F, Mulugeta T, Murillo-Zamora E, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nagarajan AJ, Nainu F, Nair TS, Nargus S, Nassereldine H, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Nejadghaderi SA, Nguyen HQ, Nguyen PT, Nguyen VT, Niazi RK, Noroozi N, Nouraei H, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nuruzzaman KM, Nwatah VE, Nzoputam CI, Nzoputam OJ, Oancea B, Obaidur RM, Odetokun IA, Ogunsakin RE, Okonji OC, Olagunju AT, Olana LT, Olufadewa II, Oluwafemi YD, Oumer KS, Ouyahia A, P A M, Pakshir K, Palange PN, Pardhan S, Parikh RR, Patel J, Patel UK, Patil S, Paudel U, Pawar S, Pensato U, Perdigão J, Pereira M, Peres MFP, Petcu IR, Pinheiro M, Piracha ZZ, Pokhrel N, Postma MJ, Prates EJS, Qattea I, Raghav PR, Rahbarnia L, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmanian V, Rahnavard N, Ramadan H, Ramasubramani P, Rani U, Rao IR, Rapaka D, Ratan ZA, Rawaf S, Redwan EMM, Reiner Jr RC, Rezaei N, Riad A, Ribeiro da Silva TM, Roberts T, Robles Aguilar G, Rodriguez JAB, Rosenthal VD, Saddik B, Sadeghian S, Saeed U, Safary A, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Sahebkar A, Sahu M, Sajedi SA, Saki M, Salahi S, Salahi S, Saleh MA, Sallam M, Samadzadeh S, Samy AM, Sanjeev RK, Satpathy M, Seylani A, Sha'aban A, Shafie M, Shah PA, Shahrokhi S, Shahzamani K, Shaikh MA, Sham S, Shannawaz M, Sheikh A, Shenoy SM, Shetty PH, Shin JI, Shokri F, Shorofi SA, Shrestha S, Sibhat MM, Siddig EE, Silva LMLR, Singh H, Singh JA, Singh P, Singh S, Sinto R, Skryabina AA, Socea B, Sokhan A, Solanki R, Solomon Y, Sood P, Soshnikov S, Stergachis A, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, T Y SS, Taheri E, Taki E, Tamuzi JJLL, Tan KK, Tat NY, Temsah MH, Terefa DR, Thangaraju P, Tibebu NS, Ticoalu JHV, Tillawi T, Tincho MB, Tleyjeh II, Toghroli R, Tovani-Palone MR, Tufa DG, Turner P, Ullah I, Umeokonkwo CD, Unnikrishnan B, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, Valizadeh R, Varthya SB, Vos T, Waheed Y, Walde MT, Wang C, Weerakoon KG, Wickramasinghe ND, Winkler AS, Woldemariam M, Worku NA, Wright C, Yada DY, Yaghoubi S, Yahya GATY, Yenew CYY, Yesiltepe M, Yi S, Yiğit V, You Y, Yusuf H, Zakham F, Zaman M, Zaman SB, Zare I, Zareshahrabadi Z, Zarrintan A, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang H, Zhang J, Zhang ZJ, Zheng P, Zoladl M, Zumla A, Hay SI, Murray CJL, Naghavi M, Kyu HH. Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Neurol 2023; 22:685-711. [PMID: 37479374 PMCID: PMC10356620 DOI: 10.1016/s1474-4422(23)00195-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Revised: 04/28/2023] [Accepted: 05/05/2023] [Indexed: 07/23/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories. METHODS We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category. FINDINGS In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]). INTERPRETATION Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Ong KL, Stafford LK, McLaughlin SA, Boyko EJ, Vollset SE, Smith AE, Dalton BE, Duprey J, Cruz JA, Hagins H, Lindstedt PA, Aali A, Abate YH, Abate MD, Abbasian M, Abbasi-Kangevari Z, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abd ElHafeez S, Abd-Rabu R, Abdulah DM, Abdullah AYM, Abedi V, Abidi H, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Zaid A, Adane TD, Adane DE, Addo IY, Adegboye OA, Adekanmbi V, Adepoju AV, Adnani QES, Afolabi RF, Agarwal G, Aghdam ZB, Agudelo-Botero M, Aguilera Arriagada CE, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad D, Ahmad R, Ahmad S, Ahmad A, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi K, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed LA, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Akinyemi RO, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan SM, AL-Ahdal TMA, Alalwan TA, Al-Aly Z, AlBataineh MT, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Alemi S, Ali H, Alinia T, Aljunid SM, Almustanyir S, Al-Raddadi RM, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare F, Ameyaw EK, Amiri S, Amusa GA, Andrei CL, Anjana RM, Ansar A, Ansari G, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Arifin H, Arkew M, Armocida B, Ärnlöv J, Artamonov AA, Arulappan J, Aruleba RT, Arumugam A, Aryan Z, Asemu MT, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Askari E, Asmelash D, Astell-Burt T, Athar M, Athari SS, Atout MMW, Avila-Burgos L, Awaisu A, Azadnajafabad S, B DB, Babamohamadi H, Badar M, Badawi A, Badiye AD, Baghcheghi N, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bah S, Bahadory S, Bai R, Baig AA, Baltatu OC, Baradaran HR, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Barengo NC, Bärnighausen TW, Barone MTU, Barone-Adesi F, Barrow A, Bashiri H, Basiru A, Basu S, Basu S, Batiha AMM, Batra K, Bayih MT, Bayileyegn NS, Behnoush AH, Bekele AB, Belete MA, Belgaumi UI, Belo L, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhe K, Berhie AY, Bhaskar S, Bhat AN, Bhatti JS, Bikbov B, Bilal F, Bintoro BS, Bitaraf S, Bitra VR, Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, Bodolica V, Boloor A, Brauer M, Brazo-Sayavera J, Brenner H, Butt ZA, Calina D, Campos LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao Y, Cao C, Car J, Carvalho M, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Cerin E, Chadwick J, Chandrasekar EK, Chanie GS, Charan J, Chattu VK, Chauhan K, Cheema HA, Chekol Abebe E, Chen S, Cherbuin N, Chichagi F, Chidambaram SB, Cho WCS, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury R, Chowdhury EK, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung SC, Coberly K, Columbus A, Contreras D, Cousin E, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Cuschieri S, Dabo B, Dadras O, Dai X, Damasceno AAM, Dandona R, Dandona L, Das S, Dascalu AM, Dash NR, Dashti M, Dávila-Cervantes CA, De la Cruz-Góngora V, Debele GR, Delpasand K, Demisse FW, Demissie GD, Deng X, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deo SV, Dervišević E, Desai HD, Desale AT, Dessie AM, Desta F, Dewan SMR, Dey S, Dhama K, Dhimal M, Diao N, Diaz D, Dinu M, Diress M, Djalalinia S, Doan LP, Dongarwar D, dos Santos Figueiredo FW, Duncan BB, Dutta S, Dziedzic AM, Edinur HA, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, Elgendy IY, Elhadi M, El-Huneidi W, Elmeligy OAA, Elmonem MA, Endeshaw D, Esayas HL, Eshetu HB, Etaee F, Fadhil I, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahim A, Falahi S, Faris MEM, Farrokhpour H, Farzadfar F, Fatehizadeh A, Fazli G, Feng X, Ferede TY, Fischer F, Flood D, Forouhari A, Foroumadi R, Foroutan Koudehi M, Gaidhane AM, Gaihre S, Gaipov A, Galali Y, Ganesan B, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gautam RK, Gebrehiwot M, Gebrekidan KG, Gebremeskel TG, Getacher L, Ghadirian F, Ghamari SH, Ghasemi Nour M, Ghassemi F, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Gopalani SV, Guadie HA, Guan SY, Gudayu TW, Guimarães RA, Guled RA, Gupta R, Gupta K, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gyawali B, Haddadi R, Hadi NR, Haile TG, Hajibeygi R, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halwani R, Hamidi S, Hankey GJ, Hannan MA, Haque S, Harandi H, Harlianto NI, Hasan SMM, Hasan SS, Hasani H, Hassanipour S, Hassen MB, Haubold J, Hayat K, Heidari G, Heidari M, Hessami K, Hiraike Y, Holla R, Hossain S, Hossain MS, Hosseini MS, Hosseinzadeh M, Hosseinzadeh H, Huang J, Huda MN, Hussain S, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Ikeda N, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Inbaraj LR, Iqbal A, Islam SMS, Islam RM, Ismail NE, Iso H, Isola G, Itumalla R, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Iyamu IO, Iyasu AN, Jacob L, Jafarzadeh A, Jahrami H, Jain R, Jaja C, Jamalpoor Z, Jamshidi E, Janakiraman B, Jayanna K, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jayawardena R, Jebai R, Jeong W, Jin Y, Jokar M, Jonas JB, Joseph N, Joseph A, Joshua CE, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabthymer RH, Kadashetti V, Kahe F, Kalhor R, Kandel H, Karanth SD, Karaye IM, Karkhah S, Katoto PDMC, Kaur N, Kazemian S, Kebede SA, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khan MAB, Khan M, Khan A, Khanal S, Khatatbeh MM, Khater AM, Khateri S, khorashadizadeh F, Khubchandani J, Kibret BG, Kim MS, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kivimäki M, Kolahi AA, Komaki S, Kompani F, Koohestani HR, Korzh O, Kostev K, Kothari N, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Krishnamoorthy Y, Kuate Defo B, Kuddus M, Kuddus MA, Kumar R, Kumar H, Kundu S, Kurniasari MD, Kuttikkattu A, La Vecchia C, Lallukka T, Larijani B, Larsson AO, Latief K, Lawal BK, Le TTT, Le TTB, Lee SWH, Lee M, Lee WC, Lee PH, Lee SW, Lee SW, Legesse SM, Lenzi J, Li Y, Li MC, Lim SS, Lim LL, Liu X, Liu C, Lo CH, Lopes G, Lorkowski S, Lozano R, Lucchetti G, Maghazachi AA, Mahasha PW, Mahjoub S, Mahmoud MA, Mahmoudi R, Mahmoudimanesh M, Mai AT, Majeed A, Majma Sanaye P, Makris KC, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Mallhi TH, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Mansouri B, Marateb HR, Mardi P, Martini S, Martorell M, Marzo RR, Masoudi R, Masoudi S, Mathews E, Maugeri A, Mazzaglia G, Mekonnen T, Meshkat M, Mestrovic T, Miao Jonasson J, Miazgowski T, Michalek IM, Minh LHN, Mini GK, Miranda JJ, Mirfakhraie R, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Misganaw A, Misgina KH, Mishra M, Moazen B, Mohamed NS, Mohammadi E, Mohammadi M, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadshahi M, Mohseni A, Mojiri-forushani H, Mokdad AH, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Moniruzzaman M, Mons U, Montazeri F, Moodi Ghalibaf A, Moradi Y, Moradi M, Moradi Sarabi M, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Morze J, Mossialos E, Mostafavi E, Mueller UO, Mulita F, Mulita A, Murillo-Zamora E, Musa KI, Mwita JC, Nagaraju SP, Naghavi M, Nainu F, Nair TS, Najmuldeen HHR, Nangia V, Nargus S, Naser AY, Nassereldine H, Natto ZS, Nauman J, Nayak BP, Ndejjo R, Negash H, Negoi RI, Nguyen HTH, Nguyen DH, Nguyen PT, Nguyen VT, Nguyen HQ, Niazi RK, Nigatu YT, Ningrum DNA, Nizam MA, Nnyanzi LA, Noreen M, Noubiap JJ, Nzoputam OJ, Nzoputam CI, Oancea B, Odogwu NM, Odukoya OO, Ojha VA, Okati-Aliabad H, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Okwute PG, Olufadewa II, Onwujekwe OE, Ordak M, Ortiz A, Osuagwu UL, Oulhaj A, Owolabi MO, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Palladino R, Panagiotakos D, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Pandey A, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pantea Stoian AM, Pardhan S, Parekh T, Parekh U, Pasovic M, Patel J, Patel JR, Paudel U, Pepito VCF, Pereira M, Perico N, Perna S, Petcu IR, Petermann-Rocha FE, Podder V, Postma MJ, Pourali G, Pourtaheri N, Prates EJS, Qadir MMF, Qattea I, Raee P, Rafique I, Rahimi M, Rahimifard M, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MO, Rahman MA, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rahman MM, Rahmani M, Rahmani S, Rahmanian V, Rahmawaty S, Rahnavard N, Rajbhandari B, Ram P, Ramazanu S, Rana J, Rancic N, Ranjha MMAN, Rao CR, Rapaka D, Rasali DP, Rashedi S, Rashedi V, Rashid AM, Rashidi MM, Ratan ZA, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Redwan EMM, Remuzzi G, Rengasamy KRR, Renzaho AMN, Reyes LF, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rezazadeh H, Riahi SM, Rias YA, Riaz M, Ribeiro D, Rodrigues M, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Rohloff P, Roshandel G, Roustazadeh A, Rwegerera GM, Saad AMA, Saber-Ayad MM, Sabour S, Sabzmakan L, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Saeed U, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safi S, Safi SZ, Saghazadeh A, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Sahebkar A, Sahoo SS, Sahoo H, Saif-Ur-Rahman KM, Sajid MR, Salahi S, Salahi S, Saleh MA, Salehi MA, Salomon JA, Sanabria J, Sanjeev RK, Sanmarchi F, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarasmita MA, Sargazi S, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sawhney M, Schlaich MP, Schmidt MI, Schuermans A, Seidu AA, Senthil Kumar N, Sepanlou SG, Sethi Y, Seylani A, Shabany M, Shafaghat T, Shafeghat M, Shafie M, Shah NS, Shahid S, Shaikh MA, Shanawaz M, Shannawaz M, Sharfaei S, Shashamo BB, Shiri R, Shittu A, Shivakumar KM, Shivalli S, Shobeiri P, Shokri F, Shuval K, Sibhat MM, Silva LMLR, Simpson CR, Singh JA, Singh P, Singh S, Siraj MS, Skryabina AA, Sohag AAM, Soleimani H, Solikhah S, Soltani-Zangbar MS, Somayaji R, Sorensen RJD, Starodubova AV, Sujata S, Suleman M, Sun J, Sundström J, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei SM, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabish M, Taheri M, Taheri E, Taki E, Tamuzi JJLL, Tan KK, Tat NY, Taye BT, Temesgen WA, Temsah MH, Tesler R, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Thapa R, Tharwat S, Thomas N, Ticoalu JHV, Tiyuri A, Tonelli M, Tovani-Palone MR, Trico D, Trihandini I, Tripathy JP, Tromans SJ, Tsegay GM, Tualeka AR, Tufa DG, Tyrovolas S, Ullah S, Upadhyay E, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, Valizadeh R, van Daalen KR, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Vaziri S, Verma MV, Verras GI, Vo DC, Wagaye B, Waheed Y, Wang Z, Wang Y, Wang C, Wang F, Wassie GT, Wei MYW, Weldemariam AH, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe ND, Wu Y, Wulandari RDWI, Xia J, Xiao H, Xu S, Xu X, Yada DY, Yang L, Yatsuya H, Yesiltepe M, Yi S, Yohannis HK, Yonemoto N, You Y, Zaman SB, Zamora N, Zare I, Zarea K, Zarrintan A, Zastrozhin MS, Zeru NG, Zhang ZJ, Zhong C, Zhou J, Zielińska M, Zikarg YT, Zodpey S, Zoladl M, Zou Z, Zumla A, Zuniga YMH, Magliano DJ, Murray CJL, Hay SI, Vos T. Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2023; 402:203-234. [PMID: 37356446 PMCID: PMC10364581 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01301-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 250] [Impact Index Per Article: 250.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/27/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. METHODS Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. FINDINGS In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. INTERPRETATION Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Abstract
Importance Alcohol consumption rates have been increasing among women in the US, which may affect mortality rates and sex gaps. Therefore, conducting a comprehensive assessment of sex differences in alcohol-related deaths is essential to inform targeted interventions and policies aimed at reducing the burden of alcohol-related harm among the population. Objective To examine sex differences in the burden and trends of alcohol-related mortality in the US from 1999 to 2020. Design, Setting, and Participants This cross-sectional time series study used Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research data on alcohol-related deaths from 1999 to 2020. Alcohol-related deaths were identified from the underlying cause of death files using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision, codes, including alcohol-related poisoning, liver disease, gastritis, cardiomyopathy, myopathy, polyneuropathy, and pseudo-Cushing syndrome, among others. Main Outcomes and Measures Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were analyzed by sex and substratified by race and ethnicity, age, and census region. Rate ratios and 95% CIs calculated by Taylor series were used to assess sex differences in mortality burden. Joinpoint regression was used to assess temporal trends. Results A total of 605 948 alcohol-attributed deaths were identified in the US from 1999 through 2020 (AAMR, 8.3 per 100 000 persons; 95% CI, 8.3-8.3 per 100 000 persons). The mortality burden was higher among male individuals than female individuals, with male individuals being 2.88 (95% CI, 2.86-2.89) times more likely to die compared with female individuals. However, temporal trends showed an increase in alcohol-related deaths for both male and female individuals in recent years, with higher rates of increase among female individuals relative to male individuals. The AAMR increased by 12.5% (95% CI, 6.4%-19.1%) per year among male individuals from 2018 to 2020 but increased by 14.7% (95% CI, 9.1%-20.5%) per year among female individuals during the same period. Trend differences were observed across subtypes of age, race and ethnicity, cause, and region. Conclusions and Relevance This study of alcohol-related mortality in the US suggests there has been a significantly higher rate of increase in deaths among female individuals in recent years. These findings underscore the need for further research to understand the specific factors associated with this trend. The development of targeted interventions and evidence-based treatments for alcohol use among female individuals becomes imperative in effectively addressing the increasing rates of alcohol-related deaths.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ibraheem M. Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, New York
| | - Nasim Maleki
- Department of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School, Massachusetts General Hospital, Charlestown
| | - Nawaal Hassan
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, New York
| | - Ismaeel Yunusa
- Clinical Pharmacy and Outcomes Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia
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Nechi RN, Rane A, Karaye RM, Ndikumukiza C, Alsahali S, Jatau AI, Zoni CR, Alanzi A, Karaye IM, Yunusa I. Cost-Effectiveness of Dapagliflozin vs Empagliflozin for Treating Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction in the United States. Clin Ther 2023; 45:627-632. [PMID: 37270374 DOI: 10.1016/j.clinthera.2023.05.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2023] [Revised: 03/30/2023] [Accepted: 05/02/2023] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE Evidence suggests that adding dapagliflozin to the prior standard of care is cost-effective compared with the standard of care alone. The latest guideline by the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology/Heart Failure Society of America now recommends the use of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors for patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). However, the relative cost-effectiveness of different SGLT2 inhibitors, including dapagliflozin and empagliflozin, has not been fully characterized. Therefore, we conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to compare dapagliflozin and empagliflozin in patients with HFrEF from the US health care perspective. METHODS To compare the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin and empagliflozin in treating HFrEF, we used a state-transition Markov model. This model was used to estimate the expected lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for both medications. The model incorporated patients who were 65 years of age at entry and simulated their health outcomes over a lifetime horizon. The perspective of the analysis was based on the US health care system. To determine the health state transition probabilities, we used a network meta-analysis. All future costs and QALYs were discounted at an annual rate of 3%, and the costs were presented in 2022 US dollars. FINDINGS The base case analysis found that the incremental expected lifetime cost of treating patients with dapagliflozin vs empagliflozin was $37,684, resulting in an ICER of $44,763 per QALY. A price threshold analysis indicated that for empagliflozin to be the most cost-effective SGLT2 inhibitor at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000 per QALY, it may require a 12% discount on its current annual prices. IMPLICATIONS The findings of this study indicate that dapagliflozin may offer greater lifetime economic value when compared with empagliflozin. Given that the current clinical practice guideline does not recommend one SGLT2 inhibitor over the other, it is essential to implement scalable strategies to ensure affordable access to both medications. By doing so, patients and health care practitioners can make informed decisions about their treatment options without being constrained by financial barriers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Regina Nwamaka Nechi
- Penn State College of Medicine, Pennsylvania State University, Hershey, Pennsylvania
| | - Amey Rane
- Massachusetts College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences, Boston, Massachusetts
| | | | - Cyrille Ndikumukiza
- Massachusetts College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Saud Alsahali
- Department of Pharmacy Practice, Unaizah College of Pharmacy, Qassim University, Qassim, Saudi Arabia
| | - Abubakar I Jatau
- School of Pharmacy and Pharmacology, University of Tasmania, Australia
| | | | - Abdullah Alanzi
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy, College of Pharmacy, Jouf University, Sakaka, Al-Jouf Province, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Ismaeel Yunusa
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Outcomes Sciences, University of South Carolina College of Pharmacy, Columbia, South Carolina; Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, University of South Carolina College of Pharmacy, Columbia, South Carolina.
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Mercy UC, Farhadi K, Ogunsola AS, Karaye RM, Baguda US, Eniola OA, Yunusa I, Karaye IM. Revisiting recent trends in stroke death rates, United States, 1999-2020. J Neurol Sci 2023; 451:120724. [PMID: 37421884 DOI: 10.1016/j.jns.2023.120724] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2023] [Revised: 06/08/2023] [Accepted: 06/27/2023] [Indexed: 07/10/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Prior studies have reported a reversal or stalling of stroke mortality trends in the United States, but the literature has not been updated using recent data. A comprehensive examination of contemporary trends is crucial to informing public health intervention efforts, setting health priorities, and allocating limited health resources. This study assessed the temporal trends in stroke death rates in the United States from 1999 through 2020. METHODS We used national mortality data from the Underlying Cause of Death files in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER). Stroke decedents were identified using the International Classification of Diseases Codes, 10th Revision- I60-I69. Crude/age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) were abstracted overall and by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and US census region. Joinpoint analysis and five-year simple moving averages assessed mortality trends from 1999 through 2020. Results were expressed as annual percentage changes (APC), average annual percentage changes (AAPC), and 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS Stroke mortality trends declined from 1999 to 2012 but increased by 0.5% annually from 2012 through 2020. Rates increased by 1.3% per year among Non-Hispanic Blacks from 2012 to 2020, 1.7% per year among Hispanics from 2012 to 2020, and stalled among Non-Hispanic Whites (2012-2020), Asians/Pacific Islanders (2014-2020), and American Indians/Alaska Natives (2013-2020). Recent rates have stalled among females from 2012 to 2020 and increased among males at an annual rate of 0.7% during the same period. Based on age, trends have stabilized among older adults since 2012 and grew at an annual rate of 7.1% among persons <35 years and 5.2% among persons 35 to 64 years since 2018. Declining trends were sustained in the Northeastern region only, with rates stalling in the Midwest and increasing in the South and West. CONCLUSIONS The decline in US stroke mortality trends recorded during previous decades has not been sustained in recent years. While the reasons are unclear, findings might be attributed to changes in stroke risk factors in the US population. Further research should identify social, regional, and behavioral drivers to guide medical and public health intervention efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Udeh C Mercy
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Texas A&M University, 212 Adriance Lab Rd., College Station, TX 77843-1266, United States of America.
| | - Kameron Farhadi
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, United States of America.
| | - Ayobami S Ogunsola
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Texas A&M University, 212 Adriance Lab Rd., College Station, TX 77843-1266, United States of America.
| | | | - Usman Sulaiman Baguda
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, Tennessee., Kano State, Nigeria.
| | - Olatunji A Eniola
- Department of Health Policy & Management, Texas A&M University, 212 Adriance Lab Rd., College Station, TX 77843-1266, United States of America.
| | - Ismaeel Yunusa
- Clinical Pharmacy and Outcomes Sciences, University of South Carolina, 715 Sumter Street - CLS 311L, Columbia, SC 29208, United States of America
| | - Ibraheem M Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY 11549, United States of America.
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Karaye IM, Nasir R, Infante O, Ali H, Tiwari O, Marium A, Hackett M. Racial, Age, and Regional Disparities in Maternal Mortality in the USA, 1999-2020. J Racial Ethn Health Disparities 2023:10.1007/s40615-023-01694-3. [PMID: 37368190 DOI: 10.1007/s40615-023-01694-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2023] [Revised: 06/12/2023] [Accepted: 06/18/2023] [Indexed: 06/28/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The health and well-being of mothers are essential for a thriving and prosperous society, yet maternal mortality remains a pressing public health problem in the USA. We aimed to examine the US trends in maternal mortality from 1999 to 2020 based on age, race/ethnicity, and census region. METHODS Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research were used to identify maternal mortality cases. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression. Annual percentage changes, average annual percentage changes, and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. RESULTS The maternal mortality rate in the USA increased from 1999 to 2013, but has stabilized since then until 2020 (APC = - 0.1; 95% CI: - 7.4, 2.9). However, there have been recent increases among Hispanics at a rate of 2.8% per year (95% CI: 1.6, 4.0) from 1999 to 2020. The rates stabilized among non-Hispanic Whites (APC = - 0.7; 95% CI: - 8.1, 3.2) and non-Hispanic Blacks (APC = - 0.7; 95% CI: - 14.7, 3.0). Maternal mortality rates increased among women aged 15-24 years at a rate of 3.3% per year (95% CI: 2.4, 4.2) since 1999, among women aged 25-44 years at a rate of 22.5% per year (95% CI: 5.4, 34.7), and among women aged 35-44 years at a rate of 4% per year (95% CI: 2.7, 5.3). Regional disparities existed, with rising rates in the West at a rate of 13.0% per year (95% CI: 4.3, 38.4), and stable rates in the Northeast (APC = 0.7; 95% CI: - 3.4, 2.8), Midwest (APC = - 1.8; 95% CI: - 23.4, 4.2), and South (APC = - 1.7; 95% CI: - 7.5, 1.7). CONCLUSIONS While maternal mortality rates in the USA have stabilized since 2013, our analysis reveals significant disparities by race, age, and region. Therefore, it is essential to prioritize efforts to improve maternal health outcomes across all population subgroups to achieve equitable maternal health outcomes for all women.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ibraheem M Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY, 11549, USA.
| | - Rida Nasir
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY, 11549, USA
| | - Odris Infante
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY, 11549, USA
| | - Humyra Ali
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY, 11549, USA
| | - Olivia Tiwari
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY, 11549, USA
| | - Amatul Marium
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY, 11549, USA
| | - Martine Hackett
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY, 11549, USA
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Thomson AM, McHugh TA, Oron AP, Teply C, Lonberg N, Vilchis Tella V, Wilner LB, Fuller K, Hagins H, Aboagye RG, Aboye MB, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Zaid A, Addo IY, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, AlRyalat SAS, Amu H, Aravkin AY, Arulappan J, Atout MMW, Badiye AD, Bagherieh S, Banach M, Banakar M, Bardhan M, Barrow A, Bedane DA, Bensenor IM, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Bhardwaj PV, Bhat AN, Bhutta ZA, Bilalaga MM, Bishai JD, Bitaraf S, Boloor A, Butt MH, Chattu VK, Chu DT, Dadras O, Dai X, Danaei B, Dang AK, Demisse FW, Dhimal M, Diaz D, Djalalinia S, Dongarwar D, Elhadi M, Elmonem MA, Esezobor CI, Etaee F, Eyawo O, Fagbamigbe AF, Fatehizadeh A, Force LM, Gardner WM, Ghaffari K, Gill PS, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gupta VK, Hasani H, Hassan TS, Hassen MB, Ibitoye SE, Ikiroma AI, Iwu CCD, James PB, Jayaram S, Jebai R, Jha RP, Joseph N, Kalantar F, Kandel H, Karaye IM, Kassahun WD, Khan IA, Khanmohammadi S, Kisa A, Kompani F, Krishan K, Landires I, Lim SS, Mahajan PB, Mahjoub S, Majeed A, Marasini BP, Meresa HA, Mestrovic T, Minhas S, Misganaw A, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Mustafa G, Nair TS, Narasimha Swamy S, Nassereldine H, Natto ZS, Naveed M, Nayak BP, Noubiap JJ, Noyes T, Nri-ezedi CA, Nwatah VE, Nzoputam CI, Nzoputam OJ, Okonji OC, Onikan AO, Owolabi MO, Patel J, Pati S, Pawar S, Petcu IR, Piel FB, Qattea I, Rahimi M, Rahman M, Rawaf S, Redwan EMM, Rezaei N, Saddik B, Saeed U, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Samy AM, Schumacher AE, Shaker E, Shetty A, Sibhat MM, Singh JA, Suleman M, Sunuwar DR, Szeto MD, Tamuzi JJLL, Tat NY, Taye BT, Temsah MH, Umair M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Wang C, Wickramasinghe ND, Yigit A, Yiğit V, Yunusa I, Zaman BA, Zangiabadian M, Zheng P, Hay SI, Naghavi M, Murray CJL, Kassebaum NJ. Global, regional, and national prevalence and mortality burden of sickle cell disease, 2000-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Haematol 2023:S2352-3026(23)00118-7. [PMID: 37331373 PMCID: PMC10390339 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3026(23)00118-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 46.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2022] [Revised: 05/01/2023] [Accepted: 05/03/2023] [Indexed: 06/20/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous global analyses, with known underdiagnosis and single cause per death attribution systems, provide only a small insight into the suspected high population health effect of sickle cell disease. Completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, this study delivers a comprehensive global assessment of prevalence of sickle cell disease and mortality burden by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2021. METHODS We estimated cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality using standardised GBD approaches, in which each death is assigned to a single underlying cause, to estimate mortality rates from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded vital registration, surveillance, and verbal autopsy data. In parallel, our goal was to estimate a more accurate account of sickle cell disease health burden using four types of epidemiological data on sickle cell disease: birth incidence, age-specific prevalence, with-condition mortality (total deaths), and excess mortality (excess deaths). Systematic reviews, supplemented with ICD-coded hospital discharge and insurance claims data, informed this modelling approach. We employed DisMod-MR 2.1 to triangulate between these measures-borrowing strength from predictive covariates and across age, time, and geography-and generated internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality for three distinct genotypes of sickle cell disease: homozygous sickle cell disease and severe sickle cell β-thalassaemia, sickle-haemoglobin C disease, and mild sickle cell β-thalassaemia. Summing the three models yielded final estimates of incidence at birth, prevalence by age and sex, and total sickle cell disease mortality, the latter of which was compared directly against cause-specific mortality estimates to evaluate differences in mortality burden assessment and implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). FINDINGS Between 2000 and 2021, national incidence rates of sickle cell disease were relatively stable, but total births of babies with sickle cell disease increased globally by 13·7% (95% uncertainty interval 11·1-16·5), to 515 000 (425 000-614 000), primarily due to population growth in the Caribbean and western and central sub-Saharan Africa. The number of people living with sickle cell disease globally increased by 41·4% (38·3-44·9), from 5·46 million (4·62-6·45) in 2000 to 7·74 million (6·51-9·2) in 2021. We estimated 34 400 (25 000-45 200) cause-specific all-age deaths globally in 2021, but total sickle cell disease mortality burden was nearly 11-times higher at 376 000 (303 000-467 000). In children younger than 5 years, there were 81 100 (58 800-108 000) deaths, ranking total sickle cell disease mortality as 12th (compared to 40th for cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality) across all causes estimated by the GBD in 2021. INTERPRETATION Our findings show a strikingly high contribution of sickle cell disease to all-cause mortality that is not apparent when each death is assigned to only a single cause. Sickle cell disease mortality burden is highest in children, especially in countries with the greatest under-5 mortality rates. Without comprehensive strategies to address morbidity and mortality associated with sickle cell disease, attainment of SDG 3.1, 3.2, and 3.4 is uncertain. Widespread data gaps and correspondingly high uncertainty in the estimates highlight the urgent need for routine and sustained surveillance efforts, further research to assess the contribution of conditions associated with sickle cell disease, and widespread deployment of evidence-based prevention and treatment for those with sickle cell disease. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Maleki N, Yunusa I, Karaye IM. Alcohol-Induced Mortality in the USA: Trends from 1999 to 2020. Int J Ment Health Addict 2023:1-13. [PMID: 37363762 PMCID: PMC10243241 DOI: 10.1007/s11469-023-01083-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/15/2023] [Indexed: 06/28/2023] Open
Abstract
This study comprehensively examined trends in alcohol-induced overdose mortality in the USA between 1999 and 2020 by age, sex, race/ethnicity, census region, and type of injury. Using the CDC WONDER database, 605,948 alcohol-induced deaths were recorded. Mortality increased by 14.1% per year (95% CI 8.2, 20.3) from 2018 to 2020, with the highest rates among males, non-Hispanic Whites, individuals aged 55-64, and the Western census region. Rising trends were observed across racial/ethnic subgroups, except for American Indians/Alaska Natives, with annual increases of 17% among non-Hispanic Blacks, 14.3% among non-Hispanic Whites, 9.5% among Asian/Pacific Islanders, and 12.6% among Hispanics. Males, females, all age groups, and census regions also experienced increasing trends. In conclusion, this study underscores worsening alcohol-induced mortality in the recent two decades and the need for research to identify its determinants. Such research can guide evidence-based public health interventions to reduce excessive alcohol use consequences. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11469-023-01083-1.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nasim Maleki
- Department of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Building 120, 2nd Avenue, MA 02129 Charlestown, USA
| | - Ismaeel Yunusa
- Clinical Pharmacy and Outcomes Sciences, University of South Carolina, 715 Sumter Street-CLS 311L, Columbia, SC 29208 USA
| | - Ibraheem M. Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY 11549 USA
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Karaye IM, Maleki N, Yunusa I. Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Alcohol-Attributed Deaths in the United States, 1999-2020. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2023; 20:5587. [PMID: 37107870 PMCID: PMC10138663 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20085587] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2023] [Revised: 04/10/2023] [Accepted: 04/14/2023] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
The disparities in alcohol-attributed death rates among different racial and ethnic groups in the United States (US) have received limited research attention. Our study aimed to examine the burden and trends in alcohol-attributed mortality rates in the US by race and ethnicity from 1999 to 2020. We used national mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database and employed the ICD-10 coding system to identify alcohol-related deaths. Disparity rate ratios were calculated using the Taylor series, and Joinpoint regression was used to analyze temporal trends and calculate annual and average annual percentage changes (APCs and AAPCs, respectively) in mortality rates. Between 1999 and 2020, 605,948 individuals died from alcohol-related causes in the US. The highest age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) was observed among American Indian/Alaska Natives, who were 3.6 times more likely to die from alcohol-related causes than Non-Hispanic Whites (95% CI: 3.57, 3.67). An examination of trends revealed that recent rates have leveled among American Indians/Alaska Natives (APC = 17.9; 95% CI: -0.3, 39.3) while increasing among Non-Hispanic Whites (APC = 14.3; 95% CI: 9.1, 19.9), Non-Hispanic Blacks (APC = 17.0; 95% CI: 7.3, 27.5), Asians/Pacific Islanders (APC = 9.5; 95% CI: 3.6, 15.6), and Hispanics (APC = 12.6; 95% CI: 1.3, 25.1). However, when the data were disaggregated by age, sex, census region, and cause, varying trends were observed. This study underscores the disparities in alcohol-related deaths among different racial and ethnic groups in the US, with American Indian/Alaska Natives experiencing the highest burden. Although the rates have plateaued among this group, they have been increasing among all other subgroups. To address these disparities and promote equitable alcohol-related health outcomes for all populations, further research is necessary to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors and develop culturally sensitive interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ibraheem M. Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY 11549, USA
| | - Nasim Maleki
- Department of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114, USA
| | - Ismaeel Yunusa
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Outcomes Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, USA
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Bhurosy T, Marium A, Karaye IM, Chung T. Where there are fumes, there may be lung cancer: a systematic review on the association between exposure to cooking fumes and the risk of lung cancer in never-smokers. Cancer Causes Control 2023; 34:509-520. [PMID: 37031313 DOI: 10.1007/s10552-023-01686-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2022] [Accepted: 03/19/2023] [Indexed: 04/10/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE Lung cancer in never-smokers (LCINS) is the seventh leading cause of cancer, and exposure to cooking fumes has recently emerged as a potential risk factor. This systematic review is the first to summarize and evaluate the relationship between exposure to cooking fumes and the risk of LCINS. METHODS This study conducted an online literature search of PubMed, CINAHL, and PsychInfo databases. Inclusion criteria were original research articles published in English, that assessed the relationship between exposure to cooking fumes and the risk of lung cancer between 1 January 2012 and 6 December 2022, and that included never-smokers. RESULTS Thirteen case-control studies and three prospective cohort studies, focusing mostly on women with LCINS, met the inclusion criteria. Seven case-control studies reported an association between exposure to cooking oil fumes and an increased risk of LCINS. Two case-control studies found that using a fume extractor was associated with a decreased risk of LCINS. In other case-control studies, coal use was linked to an increased risk of LCINS, and participants who did not use a ventilator in their kitchens had a higher risk for LCINS. Poor ventilation [Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.15, 1.95] and poor ventilation in combination with coal use (AHR = 2.03; 95% CI: 1.35, 3.05) were associated with an increased risk for LCINS in one prospective cohort study. CONCLUSION The evidence reviewed underscores the need to develop culturally-tailored interventions that improve access to affordable and clean fuel through engaging relevant stakeholders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Trishnee Bhurosy
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY, 11549, USA.
| | - Amatul Marium
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY, 11549, USA
- Consumer Safety Office, Food and Drug Administration, Jamaica, NY, 11433, USA
| | - Ibraheem M Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY, 11549, USA
| | - Tammy Chung
- Center for Population Behavioral Health, Rutgers the State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA
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Karaye IM, Olokunlade T, Cevetello A, Farhadi K, Kyriacou CM. Examining the Trends in Motor Vehicle Traffic Deaths in New York City, 1999-2020. J Community Health 2023:10.1007/s10900-023-01203-x. [PMID: 36881263 PMCID: PMC9989555 DOI: 10.1007/s10900-023-01203-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/17/2023] [Indexed: 03/08/2023]
Abstract
Monitoring and understanding the trends in motor vehicle traffic (MVT) mortality is crucial for developing effective interventions and tracking progress in reducing deaths related to MVT. This study aimed to assess the trends in MVT mortality in New York City from 1999 through 2020. Publicly available de-identifiable mortality data were abstracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research. MVT deaths were identified using the International Classification of Diseases Codes, 10th Revision: V02-V04 (.1, .9), V09.2, V12-V14 (.3-.9), V19 (.4-.6), V20-V28 (.3-.9), V29-V79 (.4-.9), V80 (.3-.5), V81.1, V82.1, V83-V86 (.0-.3), V87 (.0-.8), and V89.2. Age adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) were abstracted by county (Bronx; Kings; Queens; New York), age (in years) (< 25; 25-44; 45-64; ≥ 65), sex (male; female), race/ethnicity (Non-Hispanic Black; Non-Hispanic White; Asian/Pacific Islander; Hispanic), and road user type (motor vehicle occupant; motorcyclist; pedal cyclist; pedestrian). Joinpoint regression models were fitted to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) in AAMR during the study period. The Parametric Method was used to compute 95% confidence intervals (CI). Between 1999 and 2020, a total of 8,011 MVT deaths were recorded in New York City. Mortality rates were highest among males (age adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) = 6.4 per 100,000; 95% CI: 6.2, 6.5), Non-Hispanic Blacks (AAMR = 4.8; 95% CI: 4.6, 5.0), older adults (AAMR = 8.9; 95% CI: 8.6, 9.3), and persons from Richmond County (AAMR = 5.2; 95% CI: 4.8, 5.7). MVT death rates, overall, have declined by 3% per year (95% CI: -3.6, -2.3) from 1999 to 2020. The rates have fallen or stabilized by race/ethnicity, county of residence, road user type, and age group. In contrast, rates have increased by 18.1% per year among females and by 17.4% per year in Kings County from 2017 to 2020.The results of this study draw attention to the worsening trends in MVT mortality among females and in Kings County, New York City. Further investigation is needed to determine the underlying behavioral, social, and environmental factors contributing to this increase, such as polysubstance or alcohol abuse, psychosocial stressors, access to medical and emergency care, and compliance with traffic laws. These findings emphasize the importance of developing targeted interventions to prevent MVT deaths and ensure the health and safety of the community.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ibraheem M Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY, 11549, USA.
| | - Temitope Olokunlade
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Texas A&M University, 212 Adriance Lab Rd, College Station, TX, 77843-1266, USA
| | - Alyssa Cevetello
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY, 11549, USA
| | - Kameron Farhadi
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY, 11549, USA
| | - Corinne M Kyriacou
- School of Health Professions and Human Services, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY, 11549, USA
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Ogunsola AS, Farhadi K, Mercy UC, Elenwa F, Karaye RM, Baba MJ, Olatunji EA, Yunusa I, Karaye IM. Analysis of contemporary mortality trends in pulmonary embolism, United States, 1999-2020. Thromb Res 2023; 223:53-60. [PMID: 36708690 DOI: 10.1016/j.thromres.2023.01.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2022] [Revised: 11/22/2022] [Accepted: 01/04/2023] [Indexed: 01/20/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND A contemporary and comprehensive examination of mortality trends in pulmonary embolism (PE) is needed for the United States (US), as previous studies were either based on preceding data or limited to specific demographic subgroups. We aimed to assess the trends in PE deaths by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and census region in the US from 1999 through 2020. METHODS We analyzed national mortality data using the CDC WONDER database. PE deaths were identified using the ICD-10 Code- I-26. Age adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) were abstracted by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and census region. Temporal trends were assessed using five-year moving averages and Joinpoint regression models. Annual percentage changes (APC) in AAMR were estimated using Monte Carlo Permutation, and 95 % confidence intervals using the Parametric Method. RESULTS Overall mortality trends have stabilized since 2009 (APC = 0.6; 95 % CI: -0.3, 1.6), as were trends among Non-Hispanic Whites (APC = 0.6; 95 % CI: -0.2, 1.4), Non-Hispanic Blacks (APC = 0.7; 95 % CI: -0.2, 1.6), and Hispanics (APC = 1.4; 95 % CI: -0.7, 3.6). AAMR declined by 1.7 % per year (95 % CI: -2.8, -0.7) among Asians/Pacific Islanders and by 1.4 % per year (95 % CI: -2.8, -0.0) among American Indians/Alaska Natives, from 1999 to 2020. Contemporary trends have increased among males (APC = 1.0; 95 % CI: 0.2, 1.9), persons below 65 years of age (APC = 18.6; 95 % CI: 18.6, 18.6; APC = 2.3; 95 % CI: 1.4, 3.1), and persons from the Northeastern (APC = 1.0; 95 % CI: 0.1, 2.0) and Western regions (APC = 1.6; 95 % CI: 0.7, 2.6). CONCLUSIONS The decline in PE mortality recorded from 1999 through the mid-2000s has not been sustained in the last decade-overall trends have stabilized since 2009. However, there were differences by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and the US census region, with some subgroups demonstrating stationary, increasing, or declining trends. Further studies should examine the drivers of differential trends in the US population to inform evidence-based and culturally competent public health intervention efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ayobami S Ogunsola
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Texas A&M University, 212 Adriance Lab Rd., College Station, TX 77843-1266, United States of America.
| | - Kameron Farhadi
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, United States of America.
| | - Udeh C Mercy
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Texas A&M University, 212 Adriance Lab Rd., College Station, TX 77843-1266, United States of America.
| | - Faith Elenwa
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Texas A&M University, 212 Adriance Lab Rd., College Station, TX 77843-1266, United States of America.
| | | | | | - Eniola A Olatunji
- Department of Health Policy & Management, Texas A&M University, 212 Adriance Lab Rd., College Station, TX 77843-1266, United States of America.
| | - Ismaeel Yunusa
- Clinical Pharmacy and Outcomes Sciences, University of South Carolina, 715 Sumter Street - CLS 311L, Columbia, SC 29208, United States of America.
| | - Ibraheem M Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY 11549, United States of America.
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Jones A, Nnadi I, Centeno K, Molina G, Nasir R, Granger GG, Mercado NR, Ault-Brutus AA, Hackett M, Karaye IM. Investigating the Spatial Relationship between Social Vulnerability and Healthcare Facility Distribution in Nassau County, New York. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2023; 20:4353. [PMID: 36901363 PMCID: PMC10001444 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20054353] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2023] [Revised: 02/21/2023] [Accepted: 02/23/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Health is a fundamental human right, yet healthcare facilities are not distributed equitably across all communities. This study aims to investigate the distribution of healthcare facilities in Nassau County, New York, and examine whether the distribution is equitable across different social vulnerability levels. An optimized hotspot analysis was conducted on a dataset of 1695 healthcare facilities-dental, dialysis, ophthalmic, and urgent care-in Nassau County, and social vulnerability was measured using the FPIS codes. The study found that healthcare facilities were disproportionately distributed in the county, with a higher concentration in areas of low social vulnerability compared to areas of high social vulnerability. The majority of healthcare facilities were found to be clustered in two ZIP codes-11020 and 11030-that rank among the top ten wealthiest in the county. The results of this study suggest that socially vulnerable residents in Nassau County are at a disadvantage when it comes to attaining equitable access to healthcare facilities. The distribution pattern highlights the need for interventions to improve access to care for marginalized communities and to address the underlying determinants of healthcare facility segregation in the county.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alea Jones
- Pipeline Programs, Donald and Barbara Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell, Hempstead, NY 11549, USA
| | - Ijeoma Nnadi
- Pipeline Programs, Donald and Barbara Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell, Hempstead, NY 11549, USA
| | - Kelly Centeno
- Pipeline Programs, Donald and Barbara Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell, Hempstead, NY 11549, USA
| | - Giselle Molina
- Pipeline Programs, Donald and Barbara Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell, Hempstead, NY 11549, USA
| | - Rida Nasir
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY 11549, USA
| | - Gina G. Granger
- Pipeline Programs, Donald and Barbara Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell, Hempstead, NY 11549, USA
| | - Nicholas R. Mercado
- Department of Health Humanities and Bioethics, University of Rochester Medical Center, Rochester, NY 14642, USA
| | | | - Martine Hackett
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY 11549, USA
| | - Ibraheem M. Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY 11549, USA
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Karaye IM, Farhadi K, Sengstock G, Shahidullah S, Taravella R, Nasir R. Recent trends in fatal unintentional drowning rates in the United States, 1999-2020. J Safety Res 2023; 84:411-417. [PMID: 36868671 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2022.12.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2022] [Revised: 09/24/2022] [Accepted: 12/02/2022] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND This study aimed to examine the trends in fatal unintentional drowning rates among persons aged ≤ 29 years by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and the U.S. census region from 1999 through 2020. METHODS Data were abstracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's WONDER database. International Classification of Diseases Codes, 10th Revision; V90, V92, W65-W74 were used to identify persons aged ≤ 29 years who died of unintentional drowning. Age adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) were extracted by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and U.S. census region. Five-year simple moving averages were used to assess trends overall, and Joinpoint regression models were fitted to estimate average annual percentage changes (AAPC) and annual percentage changes (APC) in AAMR during the study period. 95 % confidence intervals were derived using Monte Carlo Permutation. RESULTS Between 1999 and 2020, a total of 35,904 persons aged ≤ 29 years died of unintentional drowning in the United States. Mortality rates were highest among males (age adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) = 2.0 per 100,000; 95 % CI: 2.0-2.0), American Indians/Alaska Natives (AAMR = 2.5; 95 % CI: 2.3-2.7), decedents aged 1-4 years (AAMR = 2.8; 95 % CI: 2.7-2.8), and decedents from the Southern U.S. census region (AAMR = 1.7; 95 % CI: 1.6-1.7). Unintentional drowning deaths, overall, have stabilized from 2014 to 2020 (APC = 0.6; 95 % CI: -1.6, 2.8). Recent trends have either declined or stabilized by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and U.S. census region. CONCLUSIONS Unintentional fatal drowning rates have improved in recent years. The results reinforce the need for continued research efforts and improved policies for sustained reduction in trends.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ibraheem M Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY 11549, United States.
| | - Kameron Farhadi
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY 11549, United States.
| | - Grace Sengstock
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY 11549, United States.
| | - Shihab Shahidullah
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY 11549, United States
| | - Rachel Taravella
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY 11549, United States.
| | - Rida Nasir
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY 11549, United States.
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Marium A, Ogunsola AS, Mercy UC, Anikpo I, Sa'id MA, Karaye RM, Yusuf A, Olatunji EA, Yunusa I, Karaye IM. HIV mortality trends among older adults in the United States, 1999-2020. Arch Gerontol Geriatr 2023; 109:104950. [PMID: 36739679 DOI: 10.1016/j.archger.2023.104950] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2022] [Revised: 01/24/2023] [Accepted: 01/27/2023] [Indexed: 01/30/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite the progress made in managing HIV, the mortality trends among older adults in the US remains understudied. The lack of evidence in this demographic hampers the ability to implement evidence-based interventions. Our aim is to analyze the trends in HIV-related mortality among US citizens aged 65 years and above by demographic characteristics such as age, gender, race/ethnicity, and census region. METHODS We abstracted national mortality data from the underlying cause of death files in the CDC WONDER database. The ICD-10 Codes- B20-B24 were used to identify HIV deaths among US older adults from 1999 to 2020. Trends in age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) were assessed using a five-year simple moving average and Joinpoint analysis. Results were expressed as annual percentage changes (APC), average annual percentage changes, and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS Between 1999 and 2020, a total of 15,694 older adults died from HIV in the US (AAMR= 1.7 per 100,000; 95% CI: 1.6 - 1.7). Overall mortality trends increased at an annual rate of 1.5% (95% CI: 1.2, 1.8) from 1999 through 2020. The trends increased among Non-Hispanic Whites, stabilized among Non-Hispanic Blacks, and decreased among Hispanics from 1999 to 2020. Further, the trends increased consistently across categories of age (65 to 74 years; 75 to 84 years), sex, and census region. CONCLUSIONS HIV mortality among older adults in the US has risen overall from 1999 to 2020, but with varying trends by race and ethnicity. This highlights the need for enhanced public health surveillance to better understand the scope of HIV mortality among older adults and identify high-risk demographic and regional subgroups for targeted interventions. Improving timely diagnosis, managing comorbidities, and stigma surrounding HIV among older adults are crucial to reducing HIV mortality in this population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amatul Marium
- Department of Population H, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY 11549, United States.
| | - Ayobami S Ogunsola
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Texas AandM University, 212 Adriance Lab Rd., College Station, TX 77843-1266, United States.
| | - Udeh C Mercy
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Texas AandM University, 212 Adriance Lab Rd., College Station, TX 77843-1266, United States.
| | - Ifedioranma Anikpo
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, FL, United States.
| | - Maryam A Sa'id
- Bayero University/Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, Kano State, Nigeria
| | | | - Aishatu Yusuf
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Texas AandM University, TX, United States.
| | - Eniola A Olatunji
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Texas AandM University, 212 Adriance Lab Rd., College Station, TX 77843-1266, United States.
| | - Ismaeel Yunusa
- Clinical Pharmacy and Outcomes Sciences, University of South Carolina, 715 Sumter Street - CLS 311 L, Columbia, SC 29208, United States.
| | - Ibraheem M Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY 11549, United States.
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Ogunsola AS, Smith S, Eniola OA, Mercy UC, Karaye IM. Sex Differences in the Association Between Cannabis Use and Diabetes Mellitus among U.S. Adults: The National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey, 2013-2018. Cannabis Cannabinoid Res 2022; 7:876-881. [PMID: 34981965 DOI: 10.1089/can.2021.0134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: Diabetes mellitus is an important public health problem in the United States, accounting for 87,647 deaths in 2019. This study aimed to assess the association between cannabis use and diabetes mellitus by sex among U.S. adults. Methods: Data were abstracted from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2013 through 2018. Cannabis use was estimated using exposure status and frequency of use. Diabetes mellitus was assessed based on physician diagnosis or laboratory results, per the American Diabetes Association guidelines. A multivariable survey logistic regression model was fitted to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and confidence intervals (95% CIs). Results: A total of 15,062 participants were included in this study. The majority were female (n=7845; 51.1%), >40 years of age (n=8564; 56.3%), non-Hispanic white (n=4873; 61.5%), with at least a college-level education (n=8239; 62.5%). Female participants who used cannabis heavily were less likely to be diagnosed with diabetes mellitus than female noncannabis users (aOR=0.49; 95% CI: 0.30-0.81; aOR=0.51; 95% CI: 0.31-0.84). However, no significant association was found for female adults who engaged in light use of cannabis (aOR=0.98; 95% CI: 0.55-1.75; aOR=1.01; 95% CI: 0.57-1.79). Among male adults, cannabis use, irrespective of the degree of exposure, was not significantly associated with diabetes mellitus (heavy users: aOR=0.89; 95% CI=0.56-1.41; light users: aOR=0.53; 95% CI=0.22-1.29). Conclusions: Heavy cannabis use is inversely associated with diabetes mellitus in females but not males. Further studies are needed to explore the sex-based heterogeneity-and individual and contextual factors responsible-in the association between cannabis use and diabetes mellitus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ayobami S Ogunsola
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA
| | - Samuel Smith
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA
| | - Olatunji A Eniola
- Department of Health Policy & Management, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA
| | - Udeh C Mercy
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA
| | - Ibraheem M Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, New York, USA
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Koyratty N, Karaye IM, Brenton B, Gadhoke P, Clay L. Attitude and Practice Correlates of Food Security Transition during COVID-19. Ann Epidemiol 2022. [PMCID: PMC9639338 DOI: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2022.08.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Kyu HH, Vongpradith A, Sirota SB, Novotney A, Troeger CE, Doxey MC, Bender RG, Ledesma JR, Biehl MH, Albertson SB, Frostad JJ, Burkart K, Bennitt FB, Zhao JT, Gardner WM, Hagins H, Bryazka D, Dominguez RMV, Abate SM, Abdelmasseh M, Abdoli A, Abdoli G, Abedi A, Abedi V, Abegaz TM, Abidi H, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abtew YD, Abubaker Ali H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Zaid A, Adamu K, Addo IY, Adegboye OA, Adnan M, Adnani QES, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad AR, Ahmad S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi S, Ahmed H, Ahmed JQ, Ahmed Rashid T, Akbarzadeh-Khiavi M, Al Hamad H, Albano L, Aldeyab MA, Alemu BM, Alene KA, Algammal AM, Alhalaiqa FAN, Alhassan RK, Ali BA, Ali L, Ali MM, Ali SS, Alimohamadi Y, Alipour V, Al-Jumaily A, Aljunid SM, Almustanyir S, Al-Raddadi RM, Al-Rifai RHH, AlRyalat SAS, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Ameyaw EK, Aminian Dehkordi JJ, Amuasi JH, Amugsi DA, Anbesu EW, Ansar A, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Areda D, Argaw AM, Argaw ZG, Arulappan J, Aruleba RT, Asemahagn MA, Athari SS, Atlaw D, Attia EF, Attia S, Aujayeb A, Awoke T, Ayana TM, Ayanore MA, Azadnajafabad S, Azangou-Khyavy M, Azari S, Azari Jafari A, Badar M, Badiye AD, Baghcheghi N, Bagherieh S, Baig AA, Banach M, Banerjee I, Bardhan M, Barone-Adesi F, Barqawi HJ, Barrow A, Bashiri A, Bassat Q, Batiha AMM, Belachew AB, Belete MA, Belgaumi UI, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhatt P, Bhojaraja VS, Bhutta ZA, Bhuyan SS, Bijani A, Bitaraf S, Bodicha BBA, Briko NI, Buonsenso D, Butt MH, Cai J, Camargos P, Cámera LA, Chakraborty PA, Chanie MG, Charan J, Chattu VK, Ching PR, Choi S, Chong YY, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury EK, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Cobb NL, Cohen AJ, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dagnaw FT, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dao ATM, Debela SA, Demisse B, Demisse FW, Demissie S, Dereje D, Desai HD, Desta AA, Desye B, Dhingra S, Diao N, Diaz D, Digesa LE, Doan LP, Dodangeh M, Dongarwar D, Dorostkar F, dos Santos WM, Dsouza HL, Dubljanin E, Durojaiye OC, Edinur HA, Ehsani-Chimeh E, Eini E, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, El Desouky ED, El Sayed I, El Sayed Zaki M, Elhadi M, Elkhapery AMR, Emami A, Engelbert Bain L, Erkhembayar R, Etaee F, Ezati Asar M, Fagbamigbe AF, Falahi S, Fallahzadeh A, Faraj A, Faraon EJA, Fatehizadeh A, Ferrara P, Ferrari AA, Fetensa G, Fischer F, Flavel J, Foroutan M, Gaal PA, Gaidhane AM, Gaihre S, Galehdar N, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garg T, Gebrehiwot MD, Gebremichael MA, Gela YY, Gemeda BNB, Gessner BD, Getachew M, Getie A, Ghamari SH, Ghasemi Nour M, Ghashghaee A, Gholamrezanezhad A, Gholizadeh A, Ghosh R, Ghozy S, Goleij P, Golitaleb M, Gorini G, Goulart AC, Goyomsa GG, Guadie HA, Gudisa Z, Guled RA, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Guta A, Habibzadeh P, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halwani R, Hamidi S, Hannan MA, Harorani M, Hasaballah AI, Hasani H, Hassan AM, Hassani S, Hassanian-Moghaddam H, Hassankhani H, Hayat K, Heibati B, Heidari M, Heyi DZ, Hezam K, Holla R, Hong SH, Horita N, Hosseini MS, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Househ M, Hoveidamanesh S, Huang J, Hussein NR, Iavicoli I, Ibitoye SE, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Immurana M, Ismail NE, Iwagami M, Jaafari J, Jamshidi E, Jang SI, Javadi Mamaghani A, Javaheri T, Javanmardi F, Javidnia J, Jayapal SK, Jayarajah U, Jayaram S, Jema AT, Jeong W, Jonas JB, Joseph N, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, K V, Kabir Z, Kacimi SEO, Kadashetti V, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kamath A, Kamble BD, Kandel H, Kanko TK, Karaye IM, Karch A, Karkhah S, Kassa BG, Katoto PDMC, Kaur H, Kaur RJ, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khan EA, Khan G, Khan IA, Khan M, Khan MN, Khan MAB, Khan YH, Khatatbeh MM, Khosravifar M, Khubchandani J, Kim MS, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kissoon N, Knibbs LD, Kochhar S, Kompani F, Koohestani HR, Korshunov VA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kuate Defo B, Kumar GA, Kurmi OP, Kuttikkattu A, Lal DK, Lám J, Landires I, Ledda C, Lee SW, Levi M, Lewycka S, Liu G, Liu W, Lodha R, Lorenzovici L, Lotfi M, Loureiro JA, Madadizadeh F, Mahmoodpoor A, Mahmoudi R, Mahmoudimanesh M, Majidpoor J, Makki A, Malakan Rad E, Malik AA, Mallhi TH, Manla Y, Matei CN, Mathioudakis AG, Maude RJ, Mehrabi Nasab E, Melese A, Memish ZA, Mendoza-Cano O, Mentis AFA, Meretoja TJ, Merid MW, Mestrovic T, Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá AC, Mijena GFW, Minh LHN, Mir SA, Mirfakhraie R, Mirmoeeni S, Mirza AZ, Mirza M, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Misganaw AS, Misganaw AT, Mohammadi E, Mohammadi M, Mohammed A, Mohammed S, Mohan S, Mohseni M, Moka N, Mokdad AH, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Moniruzzaman M, Montazeri F, Moore CE, Moradi A, Morawska L, Mosser JF, Mostafavi E, Motaghinejad M, Mousavi Isfahani H, Mousavi-Aghdas SA, Mubarik S, Murillo-Zamora E, Mustafa G, Nair S, Nair TS, Najafi H, Naqvi AA, Narasimha Swamy S, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Nejadghaderi SA, Nguyen HVN, Niazi RK, Nogueira de Sá AT, Nouraei H, Nowroozi A, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nzoputam CI, Nzoputam OJ, Oancea B, Ochir C, Odukoya OO, Okati-Aliabad H, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Olagunju AT, Olufadewa II, Omar Bali A, Omer E, Oren E, Ota E, Otstavnov N, Oulhaj A, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakshir K, Pakzad R, Palicz T, Pandey A, Pant S, Pardhan S, Park EC, Park EK, Pashazadeh Kan F, Paudel R, Pawar S, Peng M, Pereira G, Perna S, Perumalsamy N, Petcu IR, Pigott DM, Piracha ZZ, Podder V, Polibin RV, Postma MJ, Pourasghari H, Pourtaheri N, Qadir MMF, Raad M, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Raeghi S, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi M, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman A, Rahman MO, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmani AM, Rahmanian V, Ram P, Ramezanzadeh K, Rana J, Ranasinghe P, Rani U, Rao SJ, Rashedi S, Rashidi MM, Rasul A, Ratan ZA, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Razeghinia MS, Redwan EMM, Reitsma MB, Renzaho AMN, Rezaeian M, Riad A, Rikhtegar R, Rodriguez JAB, Rogowski ELB, Ronfani L, Rudd KE, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Saeed U, Safary A, Safi SZ, Sahebazzamani M, Sahebkar A, Sakhamuri S, Salehi S, Salman M, Samadi Kafil H, Samy AM, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Sarkhosh M, Sathian B, Sawhney M, Saya GK, Seidu AA, Seylani A, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shaker E, Shamshad H, Sharew MM, Sharhani A, Sharifi A, Sharma P, Sheidaei A, Shenoy SM, Shetty JK, Shiferaw DS, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shirzad-Aski H, Shivakumar KM, Shivalli S, Shobeiri P, Simegn W, Simpson CR, Singh H, Singh JA, Singh P, Siwal SS, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Soltani-Zangbar MS, Song S, Song Y, Sood P, Sreeramareddy CT, Steiropoulos P, Suleman M, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tahamtan A, Taheri M, Taheri Soodejani M, Taki E, Talaat IM, Tampa M, Tandukar S, Tat NY, Tat VY, Tefera YM, Temesgen G, Temsah MH, Tesfaye A, Tesfaye DG, Tessema B, Thapar R, Ticoalu JHV, Tiyuri A, Tleyjeh II, Togtmol M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tufa DG, Ullah I, Upadhyay E, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valdez PR, Valizadeh R, Vardavas C, Vasankari TJ, Vo B, Vu LG, Wagaye B, Waheed Y, Wang Y, Waris A, West TE, Wickramasinghe ND, Xu X, Yaghoubi S, Yahya GAT, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, Zaman BA, Zandifar A, Zangiabadian M, Zar HJ, Zare I, Zareshahrabadi Z, Zarrintan A, Zastrozhin MS, Zeng W, Zhang M, Zhang ZJ, Zhong C, Zoladl M, Zumla A, Lim SS, Vos T, Naghavi M, Brauer M, Hay SI, Murray CJL. Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Infect Dis 2022; 22:1626-1647. [PMID: 35964613 PMCID: PMC9605880 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(22)00510-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2022] [Revised: 05/18/2022] [Accepted: 07/18/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories. METHODS In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors. FINDINGS Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths. INTERPRETATION The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Karaye IM, Stone KW, Horney JA. Determinants of Under-Five Mortality in an Armed Conflict Setting: Empirical Findings from the Demographic and Health Surveys. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2022; 19:14179. [PMID: 36361059 PMCID: PMC9658916 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192114179] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2022] [Revised: 10/24/2022] [Accepted: 10/27/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Insurgencies like Boko Haram may impact the physical health and well-being of adults and children living in geographic areas under their political control. However, it is difficult to obtain reliable health data in conflict-affected areas. This study explored the potential to use data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to examine the determinants of under-five mortality in Northern Nigeria. Data were derived from DHS conducted before and after the start of the Boko Haram insurgency in 2009. A multi-level mixed effects logistic regression model was used to identify predictors of under-five mortality in an armed conflict setting. Results were reported as adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Residence in an armed conflict setting was not significantly associated with under-five mortality (aOR = 1.06; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.10). However, twin gestation (aOR = 3.18; 95% CI:2.96, 3.42), wealth index of family (richest versus poorest: aOR = 0.42; 95% CI: 0.37, 0.47), religion of mother (Islam versus Christianity: aOR = 1.50; 95% CI: 1.43, 1.57); highest educational level of mother (higher versus none: aOR = 0.33; 95% CI: 0.29, 0.37), and parity of mother, significantly predicted death before the fifth birthday. Repeated studies are needed to assess the impact of Boko Haram insurgency on physical health outcomes, particularly in areas where primary data collection is difficult or impossible.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ibraheem M. Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY 11549, USA
| | - Kahler W. Stone
- Department of Health and Human Performance, Middle Tennessee State University, Murfreesboro, TN 37132, USA
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Karaye IM, Yunusa I. Trends in cocaine overdose deaths by race and ethnicity, US, 1999–2020. Ann Epidemiol 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2022.06.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/01/2022]
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Farhadi K, Rojanaworarit C, Bhurosy T, Olokunlade T, Karaye IM. Trends in Lip, Oral Cavity, and Pharyngeal Cancer Mortality in the United States, 1999-2019. J Oral Pathol Med 2022; 51:763-770. [PMID: 35998115 DOI: 10.1111/jop.13345] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2022] [Revised: 05/30/2022] [Accepted: 08/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Changes in the epidemiology of lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal (LOCP) cancers have been reported in the United States. This study aimed to examine the recent trends in LOCP cancer mortality in the United States from 1999 through 2019. METHODS National mortality data were extracted from CDC WONDER, 1999-2019. The International Classification of Diseases Codes, 10th Revision- C00-C14, were used to identify decedents of the malignant neoplasms of the lip, oral cavity, and pharynx. LOCP cancer mortality trends were assessed by fitting a Joinpoint regression model overall and by race/ethnicity, sex, age, and US Census Region. Annual Percentage Changes (APC) were derived to estimate variations in mortality trends over time. RESULTS The age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) for LOCP cancers was 2.5 per 100,000 (95% CI: 2.5 - 2.5), equivalent to 180,532 deaths during 1999-2019. Overall mortality trends have stabilized since 2009 (APC= 0.3; 95% CI: -0.1, 0.7), but an examination by subtype revealed rising mortality trends from cancers of the lip and oral cavity (APC= 1.2; 95% CI: 0.7, 1.6) and pharynx (APC=3.2; 95% CI: 1.7, 4.8), and declining trends in malignancies of other and ill-defined areas of the lip, oral cavity, and pharynx (APC= -2.7; 95% CI: -3.4, -2.0). Trend variations were also noted by sex, age, US Census Region, and race/ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS There are differential trends in mortality from LOCP cancers in the US. Investigating the biological, individual, and contextual factors related to LOCP cancers would guide effective public health interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kameron Farhadi
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 131 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY
| | | | - Trishnee Bhurosy
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 126 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY
| | - Temitope Olokunlade
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Texas A&M University, 212 Adriance Lab Rd., College Station, TX
| | - Ibraheem M Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY
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Tran KB, Lang JJ, Compton K, Xu R, Acheson AR, Henrikson HJ, Kocarnik JM, Penberthy L, Aali A, Abbas Q, Abbasi B, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbasi-Kangevari Z, Abbastabar H, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdelwahab AA, Abdoli G, Abdulkadir HA, Abedi A, Abegaz KH, Abidi H, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Absalan A, Abtew YD, Abubaker Ali H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Achappa B, Acuna JM, Addison D, Addo IY, Adegboye OA, Adesina MA, Adnan M, Adnani QES, Advani SM, Afrin S, Afzal MS, Aggarwal M, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad AR, Ahmad R, Ahmad S, Ahmad S, Ahmadi S, Ahmed H, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MB, Ahmed Rashid T, Aiman W, Ajami M, Akalu GT, Akbarzadeh-Khiavi M, Aklilu A, Akonde M, Akunna CJ, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alessy SA, Algammal AM, Al-Hanawi MK, Alhassan RK, Ali BA, Ali L, Ali SS, Alimohamadi Y, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Alkhayyat M, Al-Maweri SAA, Almustanyir S, Alonso N, Alqalyoobi S, Al-Raddadi RM, Al-Rifai RHH, Al-Sabah SK, Al-Tammemi AB, Altawalah H, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare F, Ameyaw EK, Aminian 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Desai R, Desalegn MD, Dessalegn FN, Dessalegni SAA, Dessie G, Desta AA, Dewan SMR, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Dianatinasab M, Diao N, Diaz D, Digesa LE, Dixit SG, Doaei S, Doan LP, Doku PN, Dongarwar D, dos Santos WM, Driscoll TR, Dsouza HL, Durojaiye OC, Edalati S, Eghbalian F, Ehsani-Chimeh E, Eini E, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, Ekwueme DU, El Tantawi M, Elbahnasawy MA, Elbarazi I, Elghazaly H, Elhadi M, El-Huneidi W, Emamian MH, Engelbert Bain L, Enyew DB, Erkhembayar R, Eshetu T, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Espinosa-Montero J, Etaee F, Etemadimanesh A, Eyayu T, Ezeonwumelu IJ, Ezzikouri S, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahimi S, Fakhradiyev IR, Faraon EJA, Fares J, Farmany A, Farooque U, Farrokhpour H, Fasanmi AO, Fatehizadeh A, Fatima W, Fattahi H, Fekadu G, Feleke BE, Ferrari AA, Ferrero S, Ferro Desideri L, Filip I, Fischer F, Foroumadi R, Foroutan M, Fukumoto T, Gaal PA, Gad MM, Gadanya MA, Gaipov A, Galehdar N, Gallus S, Garg T, Gaspar Fonseca M, Gebremariam YH, Gebremeskel TG, Gebremichael MA, Geda YF, Gela YY, Gemeda BNB, Getachew M, Getachew ME, Ghaffari K, Ghafourifard M, Ghamari SH, Ghasemi Nour M, Ghassemi F, Ghimire A, Ghith N, Gholamalizadeh M, Gholizadeh Navashenaq J, Ghozy S, Gilani SA, Gill PS, Ginindza TG, Gizaw ATT, Glasbey JC, Godos J, Goel A, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Golitaleb M, Gorini G, Goulart BNG, Grosso G, Guadie HA, Gubari MIM, Gudayu TW, Guerra MR, Gunawardane DA, Gupta B, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gurara MK, Guta A, Habibzadeh P, Haddadi Avval A, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hajj Ali A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halboub ES, Halimi A, Halwani R, Hamadeh RR, Hameed S, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Hariri S, Harlianto NI, Haro JM, Hartono RK, Hasaballah AI, Hasan SMM, Hasani H, Hashemi SM, Hassan AM, Hassanipour S, Hayat K, Heidari G, Heidari M, Heidarymeybodi Z, Herrera-Serna BY, Herteliu C, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Hlongwa MM, Holla R, Holm M, Horita N, Hoseini M, Hossain MM, Hossain MBH, Hosseini MS, Hosseinzadeh A, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Huang J, Hugo FN, Humayun A, Hussain S, Hussein NR, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Iftikhar PM, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Immurana M, Innos K, Iranpour P, Irham LM, Islam MS, Islam RM, Islami F, Ismail NE, Isola G, Iwagami M, J LM, Jaiswal A, Jakovljevic M, Jalili M, Jalilian S, Jamshidi E, Jang SI, Jani CT, Javaheri T, Jayarajah UU, Jayaram S, Jazayeri SB, Jebai R, Jemal B, Jeong W, Jha RP, Jindal HA, John-Akinola YO, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph N, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kacimi SEO, Kadashetti V, Kahe F, Kakodkar PV, Kalankesh LR, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kamal VK, Kamangar F, Kamath A, Kanchan T, Kandaswamy E, Kandel H, Kang H, Kanno GG, Kapoor N, Kar SS, Karanth SD, Karaye IM, Karch A, Karimi A, Kassa BG, Katoto PDMC, Kauppila JH, Kaur H, Kebede AG, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Kejela GG, Kemp Bohan PM, Keramati M, Keykhaei M, Khajuria H, Khan A, Khan AAK, Khan EA, Khan G, Khan MN, Khan MAB, Khanali J, Khatab K, Khatatbeh MM, Khatib MN, Khayamzadeh M, Khayat Kashani HR, Khazeei 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K, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mehrotra R, Melese A, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha SID, Mensah LG, Mentis AFA, Mera-Mamián AYM, Meretoja TJ, Merid MW, Mersha AG, Meselu BT, Meshkat M, Mestrovic T, Miao Jonasson J, Miazgowski T, Michalek IM, Mijena GFW, Miller TR, Mir SA, Mirinezhad SK, Mirmoeeni S, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Mirzaei H, Mirzaei HR, Misganaw AS, Misra S, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi E, Mohammadi M, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohammed A, Mohammed S, Mohan S, Mohseni M, Moka N, Mokdad AH, Molassiotis A, Molokhia M, Momenzadeh K, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Mons U, Montasir AA, Montazeri F, Montero A, Moosavi MA, Moradi A, Moradi Y, Moradi Sarabi M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morrison SD, Morze J, Mosapour A, Mostafavi E, Mousavi SM, Mousavi Isfahani H, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mpundu-Kaambwa C, Mubarik S, Mulita F, Munblit D, Munro SB, Murillo-Zamora E, Musa J, Nabhan AF, Nagarajan AJ, Nagaraju SP, Nagel G, Naghipour M, Naimzada MD, Nair TS, Naqvi AA, Narasimha Swamy S, Narayana AI, Nassereldine H, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Ndejjo R, Nduaguba SO, Negash WW, Nejadghaderi SA, Nejati K, Neupane Kandel S, Nguyen HVN, Niazi RK, Noor NM, Noori M, Noroozi N, Nouraei H, Nowroozi A, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nzoputam CI, Nzoputam OJ, Oancea B, Odukoya OO, Oghenetega OB, Ogunsakin RE, Oguntade AS, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okekunle AP, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olakunde BO, Olufadewa II, Omer E, Omonisi AEE, Ong S, Onwujekwe OE, Orru H, Otstavnov SS, Oulhaj A, Oumer B, Owopetu OF, Oyinloye BE, P A M, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pakbin B, Pakshir K, Pakzad R, Palicz T, Pana A, Pandey A, Pandey A, Pant S, Pardhan S, Park EC, Park EK, Park S, Patel J, Pati S, Paudel R, Paudel U, Paun M, Pazoki Toroudi H, Peng M, Pereira J, Pereira RB, Perna S, Perumalsamy N, Pestell RG, Pezzani R, Piccinelli C, Pillay JD, Piracha ZZ, Pischon T, Postma MJ, Pourabhari Langroudi A, Pourshams A, Pourtaheri N, Prashant A, Qadir MMF, Quazi Syed Z, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan RA, 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D, Zhang J, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhou L, Zodpey S, Zoladl M, Vos T, Hay SI, Force LM, Murray CJL. The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2022; 400:563-591. [PMID: 35988567 PMCID: PMC9395583 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(22)01438-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 189] [Impact Index Per Article: 94.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2022] [Revised: 05/13/2022] [Accepted: 07/28/2022] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. METHODS The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. FINDINGS Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]). INTERPRETATION The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Fagbamigbe AF, Fakhradiyev IR, Farahmand F, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fatehizadeh A, Fauk NK, Feigin VL, Feldman R, Feng X, Fentaw Z, Ferrero S, Ferro Desideri L, Filip I, Fischer F, Francis JM, Franklin RC, Gaal PA, Gad MM, Gallus S, Galvano F, Ganesan B, Garg T, Gebrehiwot MGD, Gebremeskel TG, Gebremichael MA, Gemechu TR, Getacher L, Getachew ME, Getachew Obsa A, Getie A, Ghaderi A, Ghafourifard M, Ghajar A, Ghamari SH, Ghandour LA, Ghasemi Nour M, Ghashghaee A, Ghozy S, Glozah FN, Glushkova EV, Godos J, Goel A, Goharinezhad S, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golitaleb M, Greaves F, Grivna M, Grosso G, Gudayu TW, Gupta B, Gupta R, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hall BJ, Halwani R, Handiso TB, Hankey GJ, Hariri S, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hassanian-Moghaddam H, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari G, Heidari M, Hendrie D, Herteliu C, Heyi DZ, Hezam K, Hlongwa MM, Holla R, Hossain MM, Hossain S, Hosseini SK, hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hu G, Huang J, Hussain S, Ibitoye SE, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Immurana M, Irham LM, Islam MM, Islam RM, Islam SMS, Iso H, Itumalla R, Iwagami M, Jabbarinejad R, Jacob L, Jakovljevic M, Jamalpoor Z, Jamshidi E, Jayapal SK, Jayarajah UU, Jayawardena R, Jebai R, Jeddi SA, Jema AT, Jha RP, Jindal HA, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph N, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kabthymer RH, Kamble BD, Kandel H, Kanno GG, Kapoor N, Karaye IM, Karimi SE, Kassa BG, Kaur RJ, Kayode GA, Keykhaei M, Khajuria H, Khalilov R, Khan IA, Khan MAB, Kim H, Kim J, Kim MS, Kimokoti RW, Kivimäki M, Klymchuk V, Knudsen AKS, Kolahi AA, Korshunov VA, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Krishnamoorthy Y, Kumar GA, Kumar N, Kumar N, Lacey B, Lallukka T, Lasrado S, Lau J, Lee SW, Lee WC, Lee YH, Lim LL, Lim SS, Lobo SW, Lopukhov PD, Lorkowski S, Lozano R, Lucchetti G, Madadizadeh F, Madureira-Carvalho ÁM, Mahjoub S, Mahmoodpoor A, Mahumud RA, Makki A, Malekpour MR, Manjunatha N, Mansouri B, Mansournia MA, Martinez-Raga J, Martinez-Villa FA, Matzopoulos R, Maulik PK, Mayeli M, McGrath JJ, Meena JK, Mehrabi Nasab E, Menezes RG, Mensink GBM, Mentis AFA, Meretoja A, Merga BT, Mestrovic T, Miao Jonasson J, Miazgowski B, Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá AC, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirica A, Mirijello A, Mirmoeeni S, Mirrakhimov EM, Misra S, Moazen B, Mobarakabadi M, Moccia M, Mohammad Y, Mohammadi E, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed TA, Moka N, Mokdad AH, Momtazmanesh S, Moradi Y, Mostafavi E, Mubarik S, Mullany EC, Mulugeta BT, Murillo-Zamora E, Murray CJL, Mwita JC, Naghavi M, Naimzada MD, Nangia V, Nayak BP, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Nejadghaderi SA, Nepal S, Neupane SPP, Neupane Kandel S, Nigatu YT, Nowroozi A, Nuruzzaman KM, Nzoputam CI, Obamiro KO, Ogbo FA, Oguntade AS, Okati-Aliabad H, Olakunde BO, Oliveira GMM, Omar Bali A, Omer E, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Otoiu A, Otstavnov SS, Oumer B, P A M, Padron-Monedero A, Palladino R, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Pandey A, Pardhan S, Parekh T, Park EK, Parry CDH, Pashazadeh Kan F, Patel J, Pati S, Patton GC, Paudel U, Pawar S, Peden AE, Petcu IR, Phillips MR, Pinheiro M, Plotnikov E, Pradhan PMS, Prashant A, Quan J, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Raghav PR, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman A, Rahman MM, Rahman M, Rahmani AM, Rahmani S, Ranabhat CL, Ranasinghe P, Rao CR, Rasali DP, Rashidi MM, Ratan ZA, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Renzaho AMN, Rezaei N, Rezaei S, Rezaeian M, Riahi SM, Romero-Rodríguez E, Roth GA, Rwegerera GM, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Sadeghian R, Saeed U, Saeedi F, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahoo H, Sahraian MA, Saif-Ur-Rahman KM, Salahi S, Salimzadeh H, Samy AM, Sanmarchi F, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarikhani Y, Sathian B, Saya GK, Sayyah M, Schmidt MI, Schutte AE, Schwarzinger M, Schwebel DC, Seidu AA, Senthil Kumar N, SeyedAlinaghi S, Seylani A, Sha F, Shahin S, Shahraki-Sanavi F, Shahrokhi S, Shaikh MA, Shaker E, Shakhmardanov MZ, Shams-Beyranvand M, Sheikhbahaei S, Sheikhi RA, Shetty A, Shetty JK, Shiferaw DS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shivakumar KM, Shivarov V, Shobeiri P, Shrestha R, Sidemo NB, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silva NTD, Singh JA, Singh S, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sleet DA, Solmi M, SOLOMON YONATAN, Song S, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Soshnikov S, Soyiri IN, Stein DJ, Subba SH, Szócska M, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Taheri M, Tan KK, Tareke M, Tarkang EE, Temesgen G, Temesgen WA, Temsah MH, Thankappan KR, Thapar R, Thomas NK, Tiruneh C, Todorovic J, Torrado M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran MTN, Trias-Llimós S, Tripathy JP, Vakilian A, Valizadeh R, Varmaghani M, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Vos T, Wagaye B, Waheed Y, Walde MT, Wang C, Wang Y, Wang YP, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe ND, Wubetu AD, Xu S, Yamagishi K, Yang L, Yesera GEE, Yigit A, Yiğit V, Yimaw AEAE, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Zadey S, Zahir M, Zare I, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zhang ZJ, Zhong C, Zmaili M, Zuniga YMH, Gakidou E. Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020. Lancet 2022; 400:185-235. [PMID: 35843246 PMCID: PMC9289789 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(22)00847-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 122] [Impact Index Per Article: 61.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2021] [Revised: 04/11/2022] [Accepted: 04/26/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. METHODS For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. FINDINGS The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male. INTERPRETATION There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Sharma R, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abd-Rabu R, Abidi H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Acuna JM, Adhikari S, Advani SM, Afzal MS, Aghaie Meybodi M, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi S, Ahmed H, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MB, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alhalaiqa FAN, Alimohamadi Y, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Alkhayyat M, Almustanyir S, Al-Raddadi RM, Alvand S, Alvis-Guzman N, Amini S, Ancuceanu R, Anoushiravani A, Anoushirvani AA, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Arabloo J, Aryannejad A, Asghari Jafarabadi M, Athari SS, Ausloos F, Ausloos M, Awedew AF, Awoke MA, Ayana TM, Azadnajafabad S, Azami H, Azangou-Khyavy M, Azari Jafari A, Badiye AD, Bagherieh S, Bahadory S, Baig AA, Baker JL, Banach M, Barrow A, Berhie AY, Besharat S, Bhagat DS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhattacharyya K, Bhojaraja VS, Bibi S, Bijani A, Biondi A, Bjørge T, Bodicha BBA, Braithwaite D, Brenner H, Calina D, Cao C, Cao Y, Carreras G, Carvalho F, Cerin E, Chakinala RC, Cho WCS, Chu DT, Conde J, Costa VM, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Danielewicz A, Demeke FM, Demissie GD, Desai R, Dhamnetiya D, Dianatinasab M, Diaz D, Didehdar M, Doaei S, Doan LP, Dodangeh M, Eghbalian F, Ejeta DD, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, El Sayed I, Elhadi M, Enyew DB, Eyayu T, Ezzeddini R, Fakhradiyev IR, Farooque U, Farrokhpour H, Farzadfar F, Fatehizadeh A, Fattahi H, Fattahi N, Fereidoonnezhad M, Fernandes E, Fetensa G, Filip I, Fischer F, Foroutan M, Gaal PA, Gad MM, Gallus S, Garg T, Getachew T, Ghamari SH, Ghashghaee A, Ghith N, Gholamalizadeh M, Gholizadeh Navashenaq J, Gizaw AT, Glasbey JC, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gonfa KB, Gorini G, Guha A, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haddadi R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halwani R, Haque S, Hariri S, Hasaballah AI, Hassanipour S, Hay SI, Herteliu C, Holla R, Hosseini MS, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Househ M, Huang J, Humayun A, Iavicoli I, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Islami F, Iwagami M, Jahani MA, Jakovljevic M, Javaheri T, Jayawardena R, Jebai R, Jha RP, Joo T, Joseph N, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir A, Kalhor R, Kamath A, Kapoor N, Karaye IM, Karimi A, Kauppila JH, Kazemi A, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khalilov R, Khanali J, Khayamzadeh M, Khodadost M, Kim H, Kim MS, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kolahi AA, Koohestani HR, Kopec JA, Koteeswaran R, Koyanagi A, Krishnamoorthy Y, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar V, La Vecchia C, Lami FH, Landires I, Ledda C, Lee SW, Lee WC, Lee YY, Leong E, Li B, Lim SS, Lobo SW, Loureiro JA, Lunevicius R, Madadizadeh F, Mahmoodpoor A, Majeed A, Malekpour MR, Malekzadeh R, Malik AA, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Mantovani LG, Martorell M, Masoudi S, Mathur P, Meena JK, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mendoza W, Mentis AFA, Mestrovic T, Miao Jonasson J, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Mijena GFW, Mirmoeeni S, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Mirzaei H, Misra S, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi E, Mohammadi S, Mohammadi SM, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed S, Mohammed TA, Moka N, Mokdad AH, Mokhtari Z, Molokhia M, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Morgado-da-Costa J, Mubarik S, Mulita F, Naghavi M, Naimzada MD, Nam HS, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Nazari J, Nazemalhosseini-Mojarad E, Negoi I, Nguyen CT, Nguyen SH, Noor NM, Noori M, Noori SMA, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nzoputam CI, Oancea B, Odukoya OO, Oguntade AS, Okati-Aliabad H, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Ong S, Ostroff SM, Padron-Monedero A, Pakzad R, Pana A, Pandey A, Pashazadeh Kan F, Patel UK, Paudel U, Pereira RB, Perumalsamy N, Pestell RG, Piracha ZZ, Pollok RCG, Pourshams A, Pourtaheri N, Prashant A, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiei S, Rahman M, Rahmani AM, Rahmanian V, Rajai N, Rajesh A, Ramezani-Doroh V, Ramezanzadeh K, Ranabhat K, Rashedi S, Rashidi A, Rashidi M, Rashidi MM, Rastegar M, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Razeghinia MS, Renzaho AMN, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei S, Rezaeian M, Rezazadeh-Khadem S, Roshandel G, Saber-Ayad MM, Saberzadeh-Ardestani B, Saddik B, Sadeghi H, Saeed U, Sahebazzamani M, Sahebkar A, Salek Farrokhi A, Salimi A, Salimzadeh H, Samadi P, Samaei M, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saqib MAN, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Schneider IJC, Šekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Seylani A, Sha F, Shafiee SM, Shaghaghi Z, Shahabi S, Shaker E, Sharifian M, Sharifi-Rad J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shetty JK, Shirkoohi R, Shobeiri P, Siddappa Malleshappa SK, Silva DAS, Silva Julian G, Singh AD, Singh JA, Siraj MS, Sivandzadeh GR, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Socea B, Solmi M, Soltani-Zangbar MS, Song S, Szerencsés V, Szócska M, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabibian E, Taheri M, TaheriAbkenar Y, Taherkhani A, Talaat IM, Tan KK, Tbakhi A, Tesfaye B, Tiyuri A, Tollosa DN, Touvier M, Tran BX, Tusa BS, Ullah I, Ullah S, Vacante M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Veroux M, Vo B, Vos T, Wang C, Westerman R, Woldemariam M, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yang L, Yazdanpanah F, Yu C, Yuce D, Yunusa I, Zadnik V, Zahir M, Zare I, Zhang ZJ, Zoladl M. Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol 2022; 7:627-647. [PMID: 35397795 PMCID: PMC9192760 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-1253(22)00044-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 157] [Impact Index Per Article: 78.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2021] [Revised: 01/30/2022] [Accepted: 02/04/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades. METHODS Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer. FINDINGS Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00-2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02-1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3-23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6-28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5-14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6-14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7-320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2-313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9-80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5-73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8-71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0-37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6-34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6-34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019. INTERPRETATION The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Yunusa I, Teng C, Karaye IM, Crounse E, Alsahali S, Maleki N. Comparative Safety Signal Assessment of Hospitalization Associated With the Use of Atypical Antipsychotics. Front Psychiatry 2022; 13:917351. [PMID: 35733796 PMCID: PMC9207238 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyt.2022.917351] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2022] [Accepted: 05/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Persons with symptoms of psychosis receiving treatment with atypical antipsychotics (AAPs) can experience serious adverse events (AEs) requiring admission to the hospital. The comparative likelihood of AE-related hospitalization following the use of all AAPs has not been fully characterized. Therefore, we evaluated the safety signals of hospitalizations associated with the use of AAPs. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) database (from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2021) to examine disproportionality in reporting hospitalizations suspected to be associated with 12 AAPs (aripiprazole, asenapine, brexpiprazole, clozapine, iloperidone, lurasidone, olanzapine, paliperidone, and pimavanserin, quetiapine, risperidone, and ziprasidone). Hospitalization in the FAERs database is an outcome that is recorded as a result of an AE occurring at any drug dose. We estimated reporting odds ratios (RORs) by comparing the odds of hospitalization occurring with a particular AAP to the odds of its occurrence with other drugs. In addition, we considered the presence of a significant safety signal when the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the ROR is >1. Results A total of 204,287 cases of hospitalizations were reported to the FDA for individuals treated with AAPs. There were significant safety signals of hospitalization associated with using clozapine (ROR, 2.88; 95% CI, 2.84-2.92), olanzapine (ROR, 2.61; 95% CI, 2.57-2.64), quetiapine (ROR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.85-1.89), risperidone (ROR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.39-1.43), aripiprazole (ROR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.32-1.35), and ziprasidone (ROR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.10-1.18). However, no hospitalization-related safety signals were observed with the use of paliperidone, pimavanserin, iloperidone, asenapine, lurasidone, and brexpiprazole. The ROR estimates were numerically higher among older adults than younger adults. Conclusions This cross-sectional assessment of data from FAERs (2004-2021) suggested that users of clozapine, olanzapine, quetiapine, risperidone, aripiprazole, and ziprasidone were more likely to report being hospitalized than users of other AAPs. Given that the FAERs database only contains spontaneous reports of AEs experienced by persons exposed to a drug but without information on exposed persons who did not have an event, a cohort study comparing hospitalizations among new users of individual AAPs against each other is needed to delineate these safety signals further.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ismaeel Yunusa
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Outcomes Sciences, University of South Carolina College of Pharmacy, Columbia, SC, United States
| | - Chengwen Teng
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Outcomes Sciences, University of South Carolina College of Pharmacy, Columbia, SC, United States
| | - Ibraheem M. Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY, United States
| | - Emily Crounse
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Outcomes Sciences, University of South Carolina College of Pharmacy, Columbia, SC, United States
| | - Saud Alsahali
- Department of Pharmacy Practice, Unaizah College of Pharmacy, Qassim University, Qassim, Saudi Arabia
| | - Nasim Maleki
- Department of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States
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Karaye IM. Differential trends in US suicide rates, 1999-2020: Emerging racial and ethnic disparities. Prev Med 2022; 159:107064. [PMID: 35452714 DOI: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2022.107064] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2021] [Revised: 04/15/2022] [Accepted: 04/16/2022] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
Suicide is an important cause of mortality in the United States. This study aimed to examine US suicide trends by race and ethnicity from 1999 to 2020. Publicly available de-identified data were extracted from the CDC's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research. The International Classification of Diseases Codes, 10th Revision- X60-X84, U03, and Y87.0 were used to identify suicide decedents aged 10 years and above from 1999 to 2020. A Joinpoint regression model was fitted to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change in suicide rate over the study period. From 1999 to 2020, a total of 838,560 persons died by suicide in the US. Recent mortality trends have declined by 3.8% per year (95% CI: -7.1, -0.5) among Non-Hispanic Whites from 2018 to 2020, but have increased among Non-Hispanic Blacks (APC = 6.1; 95% CI: 5.0, 7.3), Asians/Pacific Islanders (APC = 1.5; 95% CI: 1.2, 1.9), American Indians/Alaska Natives (APC = 3.3; 95% CI: 3.0, 3.6), and Hispanics (APC = 3.8; 95% CI: 2.7, 5.0). Based on suicide mechanism, recent trends have increased by firearm (APC = 1.7; 95% CI: 1.5, 2.0) and suffocation (APC = 3.8; 95% CI: 3.5, 4.1), decreased by drug poisoning (APC = -2.9; 95% CI: -3.9, -1.9), and stabilized by non-drug poisoning (APC = 0.6; 95% CI: -2.4, 3.7). Racial and ethnic disparities exist in suicide trends in the United States. Further research to identify individual and contextual factors for the differences may guide effective public health intervention efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ibraheem M Karaye
- Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY 11549, United States of America.
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Sheena BS, Hiebert L, Han H, Ippolito H, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbasi-Kangevari Z, Abbastabar H, Abdoli A, Abubaker Ali H, Adane MM, Adegboye OA, Adnani QES, Advani SM, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Aghaie Meybodi M, Ahadinezhad B, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmadi S, Ahmed H, Ahmed MB, Ahmed Rashid T, Akalu GT, Aklilu A, Akram T, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alem AZ, Alem DT, Alhalaiqa FAN, Alhassan RK, Ali L, Ali MA, Alimohamadi Y, Alipour V, Alkhayyat M, Almustanyir S, Al-Raddadi RM, Altawalah H, Amini S, Amu H, Ancuceanu R, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Anoushiravani A, Ansar A, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Argaw AM, Argaw ZG, Arshad M, Artamonov AA, Ashraf T, Atlaw D, Ausloos F, Ausloos M, Azadnajafabad S, Azangou-Khyavy M, Azari Jafari A, Azarian G, Bagheri S, Bahadory S, Baig AA, Banach M, Barati N, Barrow A, Batiha AMM, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Belgaumi UI, Berhie AY, Bhagat DS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bhojaraja VS, Bijani A, Biondi A, Bodicha BBA, Bojia HA, Boloor A, Bosetti C, Braithwaite D, Briko NI, Butt ZA, Cámera LA, Chakinala RC, Chakraborty PA, Charan J, Chen S, Choi JYJ, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury FR, Chu DT, Chung SC, Cortesi PA, Cowie BC, Culbreth GT, Dadras O, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, De la Hoz FP, Debela SA, Dedefo MG, Demeke FM, Demie TGG, Demissie GD, Derbew Molla M, Desta AA, Dhamnetiya D, Dhimal ML, Dhimal M, Didehdar M, Doan LP, Dorostkar F, Drake TM, Eghbalian F, Ekholuenetale M, El Sayed I, El Sayed Zaki M, Elhadi M, Elmonem MA, Elsharkawy A, Enany S, Enyew DB, Erkhembayar R, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeilzadeh F, Ezzikouri S, Farrokhpour H, Fetensa G, Fischer F, Foroutan M, Gad MM, Gaidhane AM, Gaidhane S, Galles NC, Gallus S, Gebremeskel TG, Gebreyohannes EAA, Ghadiri K, Ghaffari K, Ghafourifard M, Ghamari SH, Ghashghaee A, Gholami A, Gholizadeh A, Gilani A, Goel A, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Gorini G, Goshu YA, Griswold MG, Gubari MIM, Gupta B, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haddadi R, Halwani R, Hamid SS, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Haque S, Harapan H, Hargono A, Hariri S, Hasaballah AI, Hasan SMM, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari G, Herteliu C, Heyi DZ, Hezam K, Holla R, Hosseini MS, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Househ M, Huang J, Hussein NR, Iavicoli I, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Irham LM, Islam JY, Ismail NE, Jacobsen KH, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Javadi Mamaghani A, Jayaram S, Jayawardena R, Jebai R, Jha RP, Joseph N, Joukar F, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kalhor R, Kandel H, Kanko TKT, Kantar RS, Karaye IM, Kassa BG, Kemp Bohan PM, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khan G, Khan IA, Khan J, Khan MAB, Khanali J, Khater AM, Khatib MN, Khodadost M, Khoja AT, Khosravizadeh O, Khubchandani J, Kim GR, Kim H, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kocarnik JM, Kolahi AA, Koteeswaran R, Kumar GA, La Vecchia C, Lal DK, Landires I, Lasrado S, Lazarus JV, Ledda C, Lee DW, Lee SW, Lee YY, Levi M, Li J, Lim SS, Lobo SW, Lopukhov PD, Loureiro JA, MacLachlan JH, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Majeed A, Makki A, Malekpour MR, Malekzadeh R, Malik AA, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Mansournia MA, Martins-Melo FR, Matthews PC, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AG, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Minh LHN, Mirica A, Mirmoeeni S, Mirrakhimov EM, Misra S, Mithra P, Moazen B, Mohamadkhani A, Mohammadi M, Mohammed S, Moka N, Mokdad AH, Moludi J, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moradzadeh M, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Mostafavi E, Mubarik S, Muniyandi M, Murray CJL, Naghavi M, Naimzada MD, Narasimha Swamy S, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Nazari J, Negoi I, Negru SM, Nejadghaderi SA, Neupane Kandel S, Nguyen HLT, Ngwa CH, Niazi RK, Nnaji CA, Noubiap JJ, Nowroozi A, Nuñez-Samudio V, Oancea B, Ochir C, Odukoya OO, Oh IH, Olagunju AT, Olakunde BO, Omar Bali A, Omer E, Otstavnov SS, Oumer B, Padubidri JR, Pana A, Pandey A, Park EC, Pashazadeh Kan F, Patel UK, Paudel U, Petcu IR, Piracha ZZ, Pollok RCG, Postma MJ, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Rafiei A, Rafiei S, Raghuram PM, Rahman M, Rahmani AM, Rahmawaty S, Rajesh A, Ranasinghe P, Rao CR, Rao SJ, Rashidi M, Rashidi MM, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Rezazadeh-Khadem S, Rodriguez JAB, Rwegerera GM, Sabour S, Saddik B, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Sahebkar A, Saif-Ur-Rahman KM, Salahi S, Salimzadeh H, Sampath C, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanmarchi F, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sawhney M, Seidu AA, Sepanlou SG, Seylani A, Shahabi S, Shaikh MA, Shaker E, Shakhmardanov MZ, Shannawaz M, Shenoy SM, Shetty JK, Shetty PH, Shibuya K, Shin JI, Shobeiri P, Sibhat MM, Singh AD, Singh JA, Singh S, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sohrabpour AA, Song S, Tabaeian SP, Tadesse EG, Taheri M, Tampa M, Tan KK, Tavakoli A, Tbakhi A, Tefera BN, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tesfaw HM, Thapar R, Thavamani A, Tohidast SA, Tollosa DN, Tosti ME, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran MTN, Trihandini I, Tusa BS, Ullah I, Vacante M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valdez PR, Varthya SB, Vo B, Waheed Y, Weldesenbet AB, Woldemariam M, Xu S, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yaseri M, Yeshaw Y, Yiğit V, Yirdaw BW, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Yunusa I, Zahir M, Zaki L, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zastrozhin MS, Vos T, Ward JW, Dirac MA. Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol 2022; 7:796-829. [PMID: 35738290 PMCID: PMC9349325 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-1253(22)00124-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 176] [Impact Index Per Article: 88.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2021] [Revised: 04/02/2022] [Accepted: 04/04/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Background Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets. Methods The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B. Findings In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000. Interpretation The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Mercy UC, Elenwa F, Ogunsola AS, Eniola OA, Yunusa I, Karaye IM. Sex Differences in the Association between Short Sleep Duration and Obesity among US Adults: Findings from NHANES, 2015-2020. Sleep Med 2022; 92:59-63. [DOI: 10.1016/j.sleep.2022.03.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2021] [Revised: 02/02/2022] [Accepted: 03/02/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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