Performance of Fracture Risk Assessment Tools by Race and Ethnicity: A Systematic Review for the ASBMR Task Force on Clinical Algorithms for Fracture Risk

The American Society of Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR) Professional Practice Committee charged an ASBMR Task Force on Clinical Algorithms for Fracture Risk to review the evidence on whether current approaches for differentiating fracture risk based on race and ethnicity are necessary and valid. To help address these charges, we performed a systematic literature review investigating performance of calculators for predicting incident fractures within and across race and ethnicity groups in middle-aged and older US adults. We included English-language, controlled or prospective cohort studies that enrolled US adults aged >40 years and reported tool performance predicting incident fractures within individual race and ethnicity groups for up to 10 years. From 4838 identified references, six reports met eligibility criteria, all in women. Just three, all from one study, included results in non-white individuals. In these three reports, non-white women experienced relatively few major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs), especially hip fractures, and risk thresholds for predicting fractures in non-white women were derived from risks in the overall, predominantly white study population. One report suggested the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) without bone mineral density (BMD) overestimated hip fracture similarly across race and ethnicity groups (black, Hispanic, American Indian, Asian, white) but overestimated MOF more in non-white than White women. However, these three reports were inconclusive regarding whether discrimination of FRAX or the Garvan calculator without BMD or of FRAX with BMD for MOF or hip fracture differed between white versus black women. This uncertainty was at least partly due to imprecise hip fracture estimates in black women. No reports examined whether ratios of observed to predicted hip fracture risks within each race or ethnicity group varied across levels of predicted hip fracture risk. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR). This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Effect of BMI-Discordant Abdominal Tissue Thickness on Fracture Probability: A Registry-Based Study

FRAX, which is used to assess fracture probability, considers body mass index (BMI), but BMI may not reflect individual variation in body composition and distribution. We examined the effect of BMI-discordant abdominal thickness on FRAX-derived fracture probability for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture. We studied 73,105 individuals, mean age 64.2 years. During mean 8.7 years, 7048 (9.6%) individuals sustained incident MOF, including 2155 (3.0%) hip fractures. We defined abdominal thickness index (ATI) as the difference between abdominal thickness measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and thickness predicted by BMI using sex-stratified regression. ATI was categorized from lower (<-2 cm, -2 to -1 cm) to higher (1-2 cm, >+2 cm) with referent around zero (-1 to +1 cm). Adjusted for FRAX probability, increasing ATI was associated with incident MOF and hip fracture (p < 0.001). For the highest ATI category, MOF risk was increased (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-1.35) independent of FRAX probability. Similar findings were noted for hip fracture probability (HR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.09-1.51). There was significant age-interaction with much larger effects before age 65 years (HR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.23-1.69 for MOF; 2.29, 95% CI 1.65-3.18 for hip fracture). In contrast, for the subset of individuals with diabetes, there was also increased risk for those in the lowest ATI category (HR = 1.73, 95% CI 1.12-2.65 for MOF; 2.81, 95% CI 1.59-4.97 for hip fracture). Calibration plots across ATI categories demonstrated deviation from the line of identity in women (calibration slope 2.26 for MOF, 2.83 for hip fracture). An effect of ATI was not found in men, but this was inconclusive as the sex-interaction terms did not show significant effect modification. In conclusion, these data support the need to investigate increased abdominal thickness beyond that predicted by BMI and sex as a FRAX-independent risk factor for fracture. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Classification of Fracture Risk in Fallers Using Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry (DXA) Images and Deep Learning-Based Feature Extraction

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans are one of the most frequently used imaging techniques for calculating bone mineral density, yet calculating fracture risk using DXA image features is rarely performed. The objective of this study was to combine deep neural networks, together with DXA images and patient clinical information, to evaluate fracture risk in a cohort of adults with at least one known fall and age-matched healthy controls. DXA images of the entire body as, well as isolated images of the hip, forearm, and spine (1488 total), were obtained from 478 fallers and 48 non-faller controls. A modeling pipeline was developed for fracture risk prediction using the DXA images and clinical data. First, self-supervised pretraining of feature extractors was performed using a small vision transformer (ViT-S) and a convolutional neural network model (VGG-16 and Resnet-50). After pretraining, the feature extractors were then paired with a multilayer perceptron model, which was used for fracture risk classification. Classification was achieved with an average area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) score of 74.3%. This study demonstrates ViT-S as a promising neural network technique for fracture risk classification using DXA scans. The findings have future application as a fracture risk screening tool for older adults at risk of falls. © 2023 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Safety Outcomes of Impact Microindentation: A Prospective Observational Study in the Netherlands

Impact microindentation (IMI) is a technique to assess bone material properties of the cortical bone at the tibia in a transcutaneous, microinvasive, way. IMI is increasingly used in studies evaluating the contribution of tissue material properties to bone fragility in humans, and is approved for use in the clinic in Europe and the United States. Previous data show that IMI is well tolerated during and immediately after the procedure. The aim of this prospective observational study was to evaluate the longer-term safety and acceptability of an IMI measurement using the handheld OsteoProbe device®. Included were patients who were scheduled for a measurement at the Leiden University Medical Center from September 2019 to December 2020 and willing to participate. Patients were asked to review the procedure right after the measurement, and by telephone interviews 1 week and 1 month thereafter. The primary outcome was the 30-day complication rate after the measurement. Included were 106 patients (71 women) with a median age of 59 years (range, 20 to 86 years). Only three minor events were reported by 1-week follow-up, with an overall 30-day event rate of 2.8%. These were a very small hematoma in two patients, and a small bruise in one patient, all of which resolved without medical intervention. No other safety-related concerns were observed, and all 106 patients would undergo the measurement again if needed. The vast majority had no pain at baseline, 1-week and 1-month follow-up (80.2%, 88.4% and 94.3%, respectively). In this first and large longitudinal study we demonstrated that although minimally-invasive, IMI using the OsteoProbe® device at the tibia did not lead to any complications, and was well accepted by patients. Results strongly suggest that IMI can be safely used in studies as well as in the clinic in the hands of an experienced operator. © 2023 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC. on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

A Risk Assessment Tool for Predicting Fragility Fractures in People with HIV: Derivation and Internal Validation of the FRESIA Model

People with HIV have a higher risk of fracture than the general population. Because of the low performance of the existing prediction tools, there is controversy surrounding fracture risk estimation in this population. The aim of the study was to develop a model for predicting the long-term risk of fragility fractures in people with HIV. We included 11,899 individuals aged ≥30 years from the Spanish HIV/AIDS research network cohort. We identified incident fragility fractures from medical records, defined as nontraumatic or those occurring after a casual fall, at major osteoporotic sites (hip, clinical spine, forearm, proximal humerus). Our model accounted for the competing risk of death and included 12 candidate predictors to estimate the time to first fragility fracture. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the model and compared it with the FRAX tool. The incidence rate of fragility fractures was 4.34 (95% CI 3.61 to 5.22) per 1000 person-years. The final prediction model included age, chronic kidney disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as significant predictors. The model accurately predicted the 5- and 10-year risk of fragility fractures, with an area under the receiving operator characteristic curve of 0.768 (95% CI 0.722 to 0.814) and agreement between the observed and expected probabilities. Furthermore, it demonstrated better discrimination and calibration than the FRAX tool, improving the classification of over 35% of individuals with fragility fractures compared to FRAX. Our prediction model demonstrated accuracy in predicting the long-term risk of fragility fractures. It can assist in making personalized intervention decisions for individuals with HIV and could potentially replace the current tools recommended for fracture risk assessment in this population. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Associations of Type 2 Diabetes, Body Composition, and Insulin Resistance with Bone Parameters: The Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) may be associated with increased risk of fractures, despite preserved bone mineral density (BMD). Obesity and insulin resistance (IR) may have separate effects on bone turnover and bone strength, which contribute to skeletal fragility. We characterized and assessed the relative associations of obesity, body composition, IR, and T2D on bone turnover markers (BTMs), BMD, and advanced hip analysis (AHA). In this cross-sectional analysis of Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study, 525 (61.3% women) participants were grouped according to T2D, IR (homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance [HOMA-IR] Collapse

Key Words

• BIOCHEMICAL MARKERS OF BONE TURNOVER
• BONE‐FAT INTERACTIONS
• DUAL‐ENERGY X‐RAY ABSORPTIOMETRY
• FRACTURE RISK ASSESSMENT
• STATISTICAL METHODS

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MESH Headings Collapse

Grants

• St. Vincent's Clinic Foundation

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Affiliation(s)

Angela Sheu Skeletal Diseases ProgramGarvan Institute of Medical ResearchSydneyNSWAustralia School of Clinical Medicine, UNSW Medicine and Health, St Vincent's Clinical Campus, Faculty of Medicine and HealthUNSW SydneySydneyNSWAustralia Department of Endocrinology and DiabetesSt Vincent's HospitalSydneyNSWAustralia
Robert D. Blank Skeletal Diseases ProgramGarvan Institute of Medical ResearchSydneyNSWAustralia
Thach Tran Skeletal Diseases ProgramGarvan Institute of Medical ResearchSydneyNSWAustralia School of Clinical Medicine, UNSW Medicine and Health, St Vincent's Clinical Campus, Faculty of Medicine and HealthUNSW SydneySydneyNSWAustralia
Dana Bliuc Skeletal Diseases ProgramGarvan Institute of Medical ResearchSydneyNSWAustralia School of Clinical Medicine, UNSW Medicine and Health, St Vincent's Clinical Campus, Faculty of Medicine and HealthUNSW SydneySydneyNSWAustralia
Jerry R. Greenfield Skeletal Diseases ProgramGarvan Institute of Medical ResearchSydneyNSWAustralia School of Clinical Medicine, UNSW Medicine and Health, St Vincent's Clinical Campus, Faculty of Medicine and HealthUNSW SydneySydneyNSWAustralia Department of Endocrinology and DiabetesSt Vincent's HospitalSydneyNSWAustralia
Christopher P. White School of Clinical Medicine, Prince of Wales Clinical Campus, Faculty of Medicine and HealthUNSW SydneySydneyNSWAustralia Department of Endocrinology and MetabolismPrince of Wales HospitalSydneyNSWAustralia
Jacqueline R. Center Skeletal Diseases ProgramGarvan Institute of Medical ResearchSydneyNSWAustralia School of Clinical Medicine, UNSW Medicine and Health, St Vincent's Clinical Campus, Faculty of Medicine and HealthUNSW SydneySydneyNSWAustralia Department of Endocrinology and DiabetesSt Vincent's HospitalSydneyNSWAustralia

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Hypocitraturia and Risk of Bone Disease in Patients With Kidney Stone Disease

Patients with kidney stone disease are at higher risk for bone disease. Hypocitraturia is common in patients with kidney stone disease and a key risk factor for stone recurrence. In this retrospective cohort study, we sought to determine whether hypocitraturia is also a risk factor for incident bone disease in patients with kidney stone disease. We used nationwide data from the Veterans Health Administration and identified 9025 patients with kidney stone disease who had a 24-hour urine citrate measurement between 2007 and 2015. We examined clinical characteristics of patients by level of 24-hour urine citrate excretion (<200, 200-400, and >400 mg/d) and the time to osteoporosis or fracture according to 24-hour urine citrate excretion level. Almost one in five veterans with kidney stone disease and a 24-hour urine citrate measurement had severe hypocitraturia, defined as <200 mg/d. Patients with severe hypocitraturia were at risk for osteoporosis or fracture (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.23; confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.48), but after adjustment for demographic factors, comorbid conditions, and laboratory abnormalities associated with hypocitraturia, the association was no longer statistically significant (HR = 1.18; CI 0.98-1.43). Our results in a predominantly male cohort suggest a modest association between hypocitraturia and osteoporosis or fracture; there are likely to be other explanations for the potent association between kidney stone disease and diminished bone health. © 2023 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

3D Finite Element Models Reconstructed From 2D Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry (DXA) Images Improve Hip Fracture Prediction Compared to Areal BMD in Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Sweden Cohort

Bone strength is an important contributor to fracture risk. Areal bone mineral density (aBMD) derived from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is used as a surrogate for bone strength in fracture risk prediction tools. 3D finite element (FE) models predict bone strength better than aBMD, but their clinical use is limited by the need for 3D computed tomography and lack of automation. We have earlier developed a method to reconstruct the 3D hip anatomy from a 2D DXA image, followed by subject-specific FE-based prediction of proximal femoral strength. In the current study, we aim to evaluate the method's ability to predict incident hip fractures in a population-based cohort (Osteoporotic Fractures in Men [MrOS] Sweden). We defined two subcohorts: (i) hip fracture cases and controls cohort: 120 men with a hip fracture (<10 years from baseline) and two controls to each hip fracture case, matched by age, height, and body mass index; and (ii) fallers cohort: 86 men who had fallen the year before their hip DXA scan was acquired, 15 of which sustained a hip fracture during the following 10 years. For each participant, we reconstructed the 3D hip anatomy and predicted proximal femoral strength in 10 sideways fall configurations using FE analysis. The FE-predicted proximal femoral strength was a better predictor of incident hip fractures than aBMD for both hip fracture cases and controls (difference in area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, ΔAUROC = 0.06) and fallers (ΔAUROC = 0.22) cohorts. This is the first time that FE models outperformed aBMD in predicting incident hip fractures in a population-based prospectively followed cohort based on 3D FE models obtained from a 2D DXA scan. Our approach has potential to notably improve the accuracy of fracture risk predictions in a clinically feasible manner (only one single DXA image is needed) and without additional costs compared to the current clinical approach. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Interactions Between HR-pQCT Bone Density and D3 Cr Muscle Mass (or HR-pQCT Bone Structure and HR-pQCT Muscle Density) in Predicting Fractures: The Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study

We examined if an interaction exists between bone and muscle in predicting fractures in older men. Prospective data from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men study was used to build Cox proportional hazards models. Predictors included HR-pQCT total volumetric BMD (Tt.BMD), trabecular BMD (Tb.BMD), cortical BMD (Ct.BMD) and cortical area (Ct.Ar) at distal radius/tibia, HR-pQCT muscle volume and density (diaphyseal tibia), D3 -creatine dilution (D3 Cr) muscle mass, and grip strength and leg force, analyzed as continuous variables and as quartiles. Incident fractures were self-reported every 4 months via questionnaires and centrally adjudicated by physician review of radiology reports. Potential confounders (demographics, comorbidities, lifestyle factors, etc.) were considered. A total of 1353 men (mean age 84.2 ± 4.0 years, 92.7% white) were followed for 6.03 ± 2.11 years. In the unadjusted (continuous) model, there were no interactions (p > 0.05) between any muscle variable (D3 Cr muscle mass, muscle volume, muscle density, grip strength or leg force) and Tt.BMD at distal radius/tibia for fractures (all: n = 182-302; nonvertebral: n = 149-254; vertebral: n = 27-45). No consistent interactions were observed when interchanging Tt.BMD for Tb.BMD/Ct.BMD or for Ct.Ar (bone structure) at the distal radius/tibia in the unadjusted (continuous) models. Compared with men in quartiles (Q) 2-4 of D3 Cr muscle mass and Q2-4 of distal tibia Tt.BMD, men in Q1 of both had increased risk for all fractures (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.00; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24-3.23, p = 0.005) and nonvertebral fractures (HR = 2.10; 95% CI 1.25-3.52, p < 0.001) in the multivariable-adjusted model. Confidence intervals overlapped (p > 0.05) when visually inspecting other quartile groups in the multivariable-adjusted model. In this prospective cohort study of older men, there was no consistent interactions between bone and muscle variables on fracture risk. Larger sample sizes and longer follow-up may be needed to clarify if there is an interaction between bone and muscle on fracture risk in men. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Prevalence of Precursory Signs of Atypical Femoral Fractures in Patients Receiving Bone-Modifying Agents for Bone Metastases: A Cross-Sectional Study

Patients on bone-modifying agents (BMAs) for bone metastases are at risk of atypical femoral fractures (AFFs), which can lead to a sudden deterioration in performance status. In this study, we sought to determine the prevalence of radiographic precursory signs of AFF in patients on oncologic BMAs. Forty-two patients (23 men, 19 women; mean age 68.8 ± 10.0 years) on oncologic BMAs (zoledronate for >3 years and/or denosumab for >1 year) and without clinical symptoms were enrolled between 2019 and 2021. All patients were receiving denosumab at enrollment and 5 had previously used zoledronate. The mean duration of BMA use was 31.2 ± 18.5 months. Radiographs of both femurs were screened for precursory signs of AFF (e.g., thickening of the lateral cortex). The patients were divided into two groups according to thickening status and compared by duration of BMA use. They were also divided into three groups by duration of BMA use (12-23 months, n = 18; 24-59 months, n = 19; ≥60 months, n = 5), and the prevalence of apparent thickenings was examined. As a result, 18 patients (42.9%) showed minute local or diffuse thickening and 10 (23.8%) showed apparent local thickening. The duration of BMA use was significantly longer in patients with apparent thickening than in those without (47.3 ± 23.6 months [n = 10] versus 26.2 ± 13.5 months [n = 32]; p < 0.05). The prevalence of apparent thickening increased with increasing duration of BMA use (12-23 months, 5.6%; 24-59 months, 31.6%; ≥60 months, 60.0%). In conclusion, radiographic precursory signs of AFF are common in patients on oncologic BMAs. Radiographic screening for AFF could be relevant in patients who have been on long-term oncologic BMAs, even if asymptomatic. © 2023 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Risk of Fracture After Bilateral Oophorectomy

Fragility fractures, resulting from low-energy trauma, occur in approximately 1 in 10 Danish women aged 50 years or older. Bilateral oophorectomy (surgical removal of both ovaries) may increase the risk of fragility fractures due to loss of ovarian sex steroids, particularly estrogen. We investigated the association between bilateral oophorectomy and risk of fragility fracture and whether this was conditional on age at time of bilateral oophorectomy, hormone therapy (HT) use, hysterectomy, physical activity level, body mass index (BMI), or smoking. We performed a cohort study of 25,853 female nurses (≥45 years) participating in the Danish Nurse Cohort. Nurses were followed from age 50 years or entry into the cohort, whichever came last, until date of first fragility fracture, death, emigration, or end of follow-up on December 31, 2018, whichever came first. Cox regression models with age as the underlying time scale were used to estimate the association between time-varying bilateral oophorectomy (all ages, <51/≥51 years) and incident fragility fracture (any and site-specific [forearm, hip, spine, and other]). Exposure and outcome were ascertained from nationwide patient registries. During 491,626 person-years of follow-up, 6600 nurses (25.5%) with incident fragility fractures were identified, and 1938 (7.5%) nurses had a bilateral oophorectomy. The frequency of fragility fractures was 24.1% in nurses who were <51 years at time of bilateral oophorectomy and 18.1% in nurses who were ≥51 years. No statistically significant associations were observed between bilateral oophorectomy at any age and fragility fractures at any site. Neither HT use, hysterectomy, physical activity level, BMI, nor smoking altered the results. © 2023 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Increased Bone Material Strength Index Is Positively Associated With the Risk of Incident Osteoporotic Fractures in Older Swedish Women

No previous studies have investigated the association between the bone material strength index (BMSi; an indicator of bone material properties obtained by microindentation) and the risk of incident fracture. The primary purpose of this prospective cohort study was to evaluate if BMSi is associated with incident osteoporotic fracture in older women and, secondarily, with prevalent fractures, anthropometric traits, or measurements of bone mineral density (BMD) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). In a population-based cohort, 647 women aged 75 to 80 years underwent bone microindentation using the OsteoProbe device. Data on clinical risk factors (CRFs), prevalent fractures, and incident fractures were collected using questionnaires, medical records, and a regional X-ray archive. BMD and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) were assessed by DXA (Hologic, Discovery A). Associations between BMSi, anthropometrics, BMD, and prevalent fractures were investigated using correlation and linear and logistic regression. Cox proportional hazards and competing risks analysis by Fine and Gray were used to study the association between BMSi and the risk of fracture and mortality. BMSi was weakly associated with age (r = -0.13, p < 0.001) and BMI (r = -0.21, p < 0.001) and with BMD of lumbar spine (β = 0.09, p = 0.02) and total hip (β = 0.08, p = 0.05), but only after adjustments. No significant associations were found between BMSi and prevalent fractures (self-reported and/or VFA identified, n = 332). During a median follow-up time of 6.0 years, 121 major osteoporotic fractures (MOF), 151 any fractures, and 50 deaths occurred. Increasing BMSi (per SD) was associated with increased risk of MOF (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.56), any fracture (HR = 1.29, 95% CI 1.09-1.53), and mortality (HR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.07-1.93). The risk of fracture did not materially change with adjustment for confounders, CRFs, femoral neck BMD, or when considering the competing risk of death. In conclusion, unexpectedly increasing BMSi was associated with greater fracture risk. The clinical relevance and potential mechanisms of this finding require further study. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Hip Fracture Risk Assessment in Elderly and Diabetic Patients: Combining Autonomous Finite Element Analysis and Machine Learning

Autonomous finite element analyses (AFE) based on CT scans predict the biomechanical response of femurs during stance and sidewise fall positions. We combine AFE with patient data via a machine learning (ML) algorithm to predict the risk of hip fracture. An opportunistic retrospective clinical study of CT scans is presented, aimed at developing a ML algorithm with AFE for hip fracture risk assessment in type 2 diabetic mellitus (T2DM) and non-T2DM patients. Abdominal/pelvis CT scans of patients who experienced a hip fracture within 2 years after an index CT scan were retrieved from a tertiary medical center database. A control group of patients without a known hip fracture for at least 5 years after an index CT scan was retrieved. Scans belonging to patients with/without T2DM were identified from coded diagnoses. All femurs underwent an AFE under three physiological loads. AFE results, patient's age, weight, and height were input to the ML algorithm (support vector machine [SVM]), trained by 80% of the known fracture outcomes, with cross-validation, and verified by the other 20%. In total, 45% of available abdominal/pelvic CT scans were appropriate for AFE (at least 1/4 of the proximal femur was visible in the scan). The AFE success rate in automatically analyzing CT scans was 91%: 836 femurs we successfully analyzed, and the results were processed by the SVM algorithm. A total of 282 T2DM femurs (118 intact and 164 fractured) and 554 non-T2DM (314 intact and 240 fractured) were identified. Among T2DM patients, the outcome was: Sensitivity 92%, Specificity 88% (cross-validation area under the curve [AUC] 0.92) and for the non-T2DM patients: Sensitivity 83%, Specificity 84% (cross-validation AUC 0.84). Combining AFE data with a ML algorithm provides an unprecedented prediction accuracy for the risk of hip fracture in T2DM and non-T2DM populations. The fully autonomous algorithm can be applied as an opportunistic process for hip fracture risk assessment. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

The Importance of Recent Prevalent Fracture Site for Imminent Risk of Fracture - A Retrospective, Nationwide Cohort Study of Older Swedish Men and Women

There is limited evidence regarding which fracture types carry the highest risk for subsequent fracture. The aim of this study was to investigate how the risk of imminent fracture depends on index fracture site. This nationwide retrospective cohort study utilized national registers in Sweden to determine the risk of fracture according to recent (≤2 years) index fracture site and according to an old (>2 years) prevalent fracture compared with the risk observed in controls without a fracture. All Swedes 50 years or older between 2007 and 2010 were included in the study. Patients with a recent fracture were designated a specific fracture group depending on the type of previous fracture. Recent fractures were classified as major osteoporotic fracture (MOF), including fractured hip, vertebra, proximal humerus, and wrist, or non-MOF. Patients were followed until December 31, 2017, censored for death and emigration, and the risk of any fracture and hip fracture was assessed. A total of 3,423,320 persons were included in the study, 70,254 with a recent MOF, 75,526 with a recent non-MOF, 293,051 with an old fracture, and 2,984,489 persons with no previous fracture. The median time of follow-up for the four groups was 6.1 (interquartile range [IQR] 3.0-8.8), 7.2 (5.6-9.4), 7.1 (5.8-9.2), and 8.1 years (7.4-9.7), respectively. Patients with a recent MOF, recent non-MOF, and old fracture had a substantially increased risk of any fracture (hazard ratio [HR] adjusted for age and sex 2.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.08-2.14; HR 2.24, 95% CI 2.21-2.27; and HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.76-1.78, respectively) compared with controls. All recent fractures, MOFs, and non-MOFs, as well as older fractures, increase the risk of subsequent fracture, suggesting that all recent fractures should be included in fracture liaison services and that case-finding strategies for those with older fractures may be warranted to prevent subsequent fractures. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Performance of FRAX in Men With Prostate Cancer: A Registry-Based Cohort Study

The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX®) was created to predict major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures in the general population. Whether FRAX accurately predicts fractures in men with prostate cancer is unknown. Our objective was to assess the performance of FRAX for predicting incident fractures in men with prostate cancer. Men from the Manitoba Bone Mineral Density (BMD) Registry (1996-2018) with prostate cancer diagnoses in the 3 years prior to dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) were identified. FRAX scores with and without BMD were calculated. From population-based healthcare data we identified incident MOF, hip fracture, any osteoporotic fracture and death from the date of BMD testing to March 31, 2018. Cox regression was performed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) per standard deviation increase in FRAX score. Observed 10-year probability (estimated with competing risk of mortality) was compared with 10-year FRAX-predicted fracture probability to assess calibration. The study population included 684 men with prostate cancer (mean age 74.6 years) and 8608 men without prostate cancer (mean age 65.5 years). FRAX stratified risk for MOF (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.48-2.45 with BMD; HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.43-2.69 without BMD) and hip fracture (HR 3.37, 95% CI 1.90-6.01 with BMD; HR 4.58, 95% CI 2.17-9.67 without BMD) in men with prostate cancer. There was no effect modification observed with prostate cancer status or current androgen deprivation therapy. Observed 10-year fracture probability in men with prostate cancer showed good agreement with FRAX with and without BMD included in the calculation (observed/predicted calibration ratios MOF 0.97, hip 1.00 with BMD; MOF 0.92, hip 0.93 with BMD). In conclusion, FRAX reliably predicts incident fractures in men with prostate cancer. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Biomarkers of Vitamin D Metabolism and Hip and Vertebral Fracture Risk: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Studies on associations between biomarkers of vitamin D metabolism and fracture risk have focused predominantly on White or elderly populations and may not be generalizable to relatively healthy multiethnic populations. We tested associations of total 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D), the ratio of 24,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 to 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (vitamin D metabolite ratio, VDMR), parathyroid hormone (PTH), and fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23) concentrations measured in serum with risk of hip and vertebral fractures in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D2 and D3 and 24,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 were measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). The study cohort of 6466 participants was without clinically apparent cardiovascular disease and was 39% White, 27% Black, 22% Hispanic, and 12% Chinese. The mean age was 62 years, and 53% were female. There were 128 hip and vertebral fractures over a mean follow-up of 14.2 years. 25(OH)D, the VDMR, PTH, and FGF-23 were not significantly associated with fracture risk after adjustment for demographics, diabetes, smoking, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, medication use, albuminuria, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Principal component analysis did not suggest differences in linear combinations of 25(OH)D, the VDMR, PTH, and FGF-23 between participants who experienced fractures and those who did not. We did not observe significant interaction between race and ethnicity and any biomarker of vitamin D metabolism on fracture risk. In conclusion, none of the four serum biomarkers of vitamin D metabolism investigated showed a significant association with fracture risk in relatively healthy multiethnic populations. © 2022 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Decreased Mortality and Subsequent Fracture Risk in Patients With a Major and Hip Fracture After the Introduction of a Fracture Liaison Service: A 3-Year Follow-Up Survey

Fracture liaison services (FLS) are considered to be the most effective organizational approach for secondary fracture prevention. In this study, we evaluated whether FLS care was associated with reduced subsequent fracture and mortality risk over 3 years of follow-up. In total, 8682 consecutive patients aged 50-90 years with a recent fracture were included. Before FLS introduction, regular fracture treatment procedures were followed (pre-FLS). After FLS introduction, patients were invited to the FLS and FLS attenders were assessed for osteoporosis, prevalent vertebral fractures, metabolic bone disorders, medication use, and fall risk, and treatment for fracture prevention was initiated according to Dutch guidelines. All fractures were radiographically confirmed and categorized into major/hip (pelvis, proximal humerus or tibia, vertebral, multiple rib, distal femur) and non-major/non-hip (all other fractures). Mortality risk was examined using age and sex adjusted Cox proportional hazard models. For subsequent fracture risk, Cox proportional hazard models were adjusted for age, sex, and competing mortality risk (subdistribution hazard [SHR] approach). The pre-FLS group consisted of 2530 patients (72% women), of whom 1188 (46.9%) had major/hip index fractures, the post-FLS group consisted of 6152 patients (69% women), of whom 2973 (48.3%) had major/hip index fractures. In patients with a non-major/non-hip fracture there was no difference in subsequent non-major/non-hip fracture risk or mortality between pre-FLS and post-FLS. In patients with a major/hip index fracture, mortality risk was lower post-FLS (hazard ratio [HR] 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.96) and subsequent major/hip fracture risk was lower in the first 360 days after index fracture post-FLS compared to pre-FLS (SHR 0.67; 95% CI, 0.52-0.87). In conclusion, FLS care was associated with a lower mortality risk in the first 3 years and a lower subsequent major/hip fracture risk in the first year in patients with a major/hip index fracture but not in patients with a non-major/non-hip fracture. © 2022 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Incidence of Subsequent Hip Fracture and Mortality in Elderly Patients: A Multistate Population-Based Cohort Study in Eastern Spain

Osteoporotic hip fractures in older people may confer an increased risk of subsequent hip fractures and death. The aim of this study was to estimate the cumulative incidence of both recurrent hip fracture and death in the Valencia region. We followed a cohort of 34,491 patients aged ≥65 years who were discharged alive from Valencia Health System hospitals after an osteoporotic hip fracture between 2008 and 2015, until death or end of study (December 31, 2016). Two Bayesian illness-death models were applied to estimate the cumulative incidences of recurrent hip fracture and death by sex, age, and year of discharge. We estimated 1-year cumulative incidences of recurrent hip fracture at 2.5% in women and 2.3% in men, and 8.3% and 6.6%, respectively, at 5 years. Cumulative incidences of total death were 18.3% in women and 28.6% in men at 1 year, and 51.2% and 69.8% at 5 years. One-year probabilities of death after recurrent hip fracture were estimated at 26.8% and 43.8%, respectively, and at 57.3% and 79.2% at 5 years. Our analysis showed an increasing trend in the 1-year cumulative incidence of recurrent hip fracture from 2008 to 2015, but a decreasing trend in 1-year mortality. Male sex and age at discharge were associated with increased risk of death. Women showed higher incidence of subsequent hip fracture than men although they were at the same risk of recurrent hip fracture. Probabilities of death after recurrent hip fracture were higher than those observed in the general population. © 2022 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Muscle Strength and Physical Performance Improve Fracture Risk Prediction Beyond Garvan and FRAX: The Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study

Muscle strength and physical performance are associated with fracture risk in men. However, it is not known whether these measurements enhance fracture prediction beyond Garvan and FRAX tools. A total of 5665 community-dwelling men, aged ≥65 years, from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study, who had data on muscle strength (grip strength) and physical performance (gait speed and chair stand tests), were followed from 2000 to 2019 for any fracture, major osteoporotic fracture (MOF), initial hip, and any hip fracture. The contributions to different fracture outcomes were assessed using Cox's proportional hazard models. Tool-specific analysis approaches and outcome definitions were used. The added predictive values of muscle strength and physical performance beyond Garvan and FRAX were assessed using categorical net reclassification improvement (NRI) and relative importance analyses. During a median follow-up of 13 (interquartile range 7-17) years, there were 1014 fractures, 536 MOFs, 215 initial hip, and 274 any hip fractures. Grip strength and chair stand improved prediction of any fracture (NRI for grip strength 3.9% and for chair stand 3.2%) and MOF (5.2% and 6.1%). Gait speed improved prediction of initial hip (5.7%) and any hip (7.0%) fracture. Combining grip strength and the relevant performance test further improved the models (5.7%, 8.9%, 9.4%, and 7.0% for any, MOF, initial, and any hip fractures, respectively). The improvements were predominantly driven by reclassification of those with fracture to higher risk categories. Apart from age and femoral neck bone mineral density, muscle strength and performance were ranked equal to or better than the other risk factors included in fracture models, including prior fractures, falls, smoking, alcohol, and glucocorticoid use. Muscle strength and performance measurements improved fracture risk prediction in men beyond Garvan and FRAX. They were as or more important than other established risk factors. These measures should be considered for inclusion in fracture risk assessment tools. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Total Hip Bone Mineral Density as an Indicator of Fracture Risk in Bisphosphonate-Treated Patients in a Real-World Setting

Bone mineral density (BMD) is an established measure used to diagnose patients with osteoporosis. In clinical trials, change in BMD has been shown to provide a reliable estimate of fracture risk reduction, and achieved BMD T-score has been shown to reflect the near-term risk of fracture. We aimed to test the association between BMD T-score and fracture risk in patients treated for osteoporosis in a real-world setting. This retrospective, observational cohort study included Swedish females aged ≥55 years who had a total hip BMD measurement at one of three participating clinics. Patients were separated into two cohorts: bisphosphonate-treated and bisphosphonate-naïve prior to BMD measurement, stratified by age and prior nonvertebral fracture status. The primary outcome was cumulative incidence of clinical fractures within 24 months of BMD measurement, with other fracture types included as secondary outcomes. Associations between T-score and fracture risk were estimated using proportional hazards regression and restricted cubic splines. A total of 15,395 patients were analyzed: 11,973 bisphosphonate-naïve and 3422 bisphosphonate-treated. In the 24 months following BMD measurement, 6.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.9-6.7) of bisphosphonate-naïve and 8.4% (95% CI, 7.5-9.4) of bisphosphonate-treated patients experienced a clinical fracture. Strong inverse relationships between BMD T-score and fracture incidence were observed in both cohorts. Among bisphosphonate-naïve patients, this relationship appeared to plateau around T-score -1.5, indicating smaller marginal reductions in fracture risk above this value; bisphosphonate-treated patients showed a more consistent marginal change in fracture risk across the evaluated T-scores (-3.0 to -0.5). Trends remained robust regardless of age and prior fracture status. This real-world demonstration of a BMD-fracture risk association in both bisphosphonate-naïve and bisphosphonate-treated patients extends evidence from clinical trials and recent meta-regressions supporting the suitability of total hip BMD as a meaningful outcome for the clinical management of patients with osteoporosis. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Fracture Risk Following an Atypical Femoral Fracture

Atypical femoral fractures (AFFs) occurring during the course of osteoporosis treatment usually lead to discontinuation of anti-resorptive (AR) drugs. However, the risk of fracture after an AFF is unknown. We conducted a follow-up study of patients with AFF matched 1:3 for age and gender with patients with a peripheral major osteoporotic fracture (pMOF), in the setting of a fracture liaison service, to investigate the incidence of subsequent low-trauma fractures. Fifty-five patients with AFF (95% women, age [mean ± standard deviation] 75 ± 10 years, 89% exposed to AR drugs), followed for 6.2 ± 3.7 years, were compared to 165 matched controls with a pMOF (hip 85%) followed for 4.3 ± 2.6 years. During the follow-up, 38% of patients in the AFF group and 16% in the pMOF group received AR therapies. Continuation of AR drugs after an AFF was associated with contralateral AFF in 27% of subjects. The risks of new low-trauma, major osteoporotic and imminent (within 2 years) fractures, were similar between the two groups: incidence rate ratio (95% confidence interval [CI]) of subsequent fracture following AFF relative to pMOF, 1.30 (95% CI, 0.82-2.04), 1.28 (95% CI, 0.74-2.15), and 1.11 (95% CI, 0.54-2.15), respectively. Moreover, the risk of sustaining multiple fractures per participant was significantly increased among patients with AFF compared to pMOF (hazard ratio 1.48 [95% CI, 1.00-2.19]; p = 0.049). When taking mortality into account, the risk of subsequent fractures tended to be higher in the AFF group (sub-hazard ratio 1.42 [95% CI, 0.95-2.12]). In conclusion, patients who sustained an AFF are at high risk of subsequent fragility fractures, at least equal or even greater to the risk observed after a pMOF. However, continuation of AR drugs increases the risk of contralateral AFF. Therefore, optimal modalities for secondary fracture prevention after AFF require further evaluation. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

The Interaction of Acute-Phase Reaction and Efficacy for Osteoporosis After Zoledronic Acid: HORIZON Pivotal Fracture Trial

Zoledronic acid (ZOL) as a yearly infusion is effective in reducing fracture risk. An acute-phase reaction (APR), consisting of flu-like symptoms within 3 days after infusion, is commonly seen. The objective of this analysis was to investigate whether APR occurrence influences drug efficacy. This analysis uses data from the 3-year randomized clinical trial, Health Outcomes and Reduced Incidence with Zoledronic Acid Once Yearly-Pivotal Fracture Trial (HORIZON-PFT). APRs were identified as adverse events within 3 days of first infusion with higher frequency in ZOL than placebo. To compare mean 3-year change in bone mineral density (BMD) in ZOL versus placebo, among women with and without APR, t tests were used. Logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between APR occurrence and odds of incident morphometric vertebral fracture. Cox regression was used to determine the risk of nonvertebral and hip fractures for women with versus without APR. Logistic and Cox models were used to determine the risk of incident fracture in ZOL versus placebo for women with and without an APR. The analysis included 3862 women in the ZOL group and 3852 in placebo, with 42.4% in ZOL versus 11.8% in placebo experiencing an APR. The difference in BMD mean change for ZOL versus placebo was similar for women with and without an APR (all p interaction >0.10). Among ZOL women, those with APR had 51% lower vertebral fracture risk than those without (odds ratio [OR] = 0.49, p < 0.001). A similar but nonsignificant trend was observed for nonvertebral and hip fracture (relative hazard [RH] = 0.82, p = 0.10; RH = 0.70, p = 0.22, respectively). There was a greater treatment-related reduction in vertebral fracture risk among women with APR (OR = 0.19) than those without (OR = 0.38) (p interaction = 0.01). Our results suggest that women starting ZOL who experience an APR will have a larger reduction in vertebral fracture risk with ZOL. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Bone Fractures in Children and Young Adults With Type 1 Diabetes: Age Distribution, Fracture Location, and the Role of Glycemic Control

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a known risk factor for fractures, but the underlying pathophysiology is still not fully understood. This study aims to define age peaks and frequent fracture sites of children and young adults with T1D. Additionally, associations of fractures with metabolic and lifestyle factors as well as with additional complications in individuals with T1D were analyzed. A total of 750 individuals with T1D aged ≤25 years with fractures were matched to 3750 patients with T1D without fractures by demographics and insulin regimen. Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) values were compared using linear regression, and logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) for fractures in individuals with acute complications and diseases. Median (Q1-Q3) age was 12.7 (9.9 to 14.9) years in individuals with fractures and 16.3 (12.6 to 17.8) years in the entire control group with 65% versus 53% males. Peak age for fractures was 7 to <15 years in males and 9 to <11 years in females, which is earlier than reported for the general population. HbA1c (%) was significantly higher in individuals with fractures than in controls (difference of estimated means: 0.26%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.07-0.46), especially in postpubertal females (0.68; 0.10-1.26). Significantly higher odds for fractures were observed in individuals with severe hypoglycemia (OR = 1.90; 95% CI 1.47-2.47), especially in prepubertal females (OR = 2.81; 1.21-6.52]) and postpubertal males (2.44; 1.11-5.38), celiac disease (2.02; 1.67-2.45), and with a history of smoking (1.38; 1.02-1.88). The age peak of fractures seems to be earlier in T1D than in the general population. Poor glycemic control is related to fractures, even before puberty. Associations of HbA1c and severe hypoglycemia with fractures highly depend on age and sex. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Prediction of Osteoporotic Fractures in Elderly Individuals: A Derivation and Internal Validation Study Using Healthcare Administrative Data

In Canada and other countries, osteoporosis is monitored as part of chronic disease population surveillance programs. Although fractures are the principal manifestation of osteoporosis, very few algorithms are available to identify individuals at high risk of osteoporotic fractures in current surveillance systems. The objective of this study was to derive and validate predictive models to accurately identify individuals at high risk of osteoporotic fracture using information available in healthcare administrative data. More than 270,000 men and women aged ≥66 years were randomly selected from the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System. Selected individuals were followed between fiscal years 2006-2007 and 2015-2016. Models were constructed for prediction of hip/femur and major osteoporotic fractures for follow-up periods of 5 and 10 years. A total of 62 potential predictors measurable in healthcare administrative databases were identified. Predictor selection was performed using a manual backward algorithm. The predictive performance of the final models was assessed using measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance. Between 20 and 25 predictors were retained in the final prediction models (eg, age, sex, social deprivation index, most of the major and minor risk factors for osteoporosis, diabetes, Parkinson's disease, cognitive impairment, anemia, anxio-depressive disorders). Discrimination of the final models was higher for the prediction of hip/femur fracture than major osteoporotic fracture and higher for prediction for a 5-year than a 10-year period (hip/femur fracture for 5 years: c-index = 0.77; major osteoporotic fracture for 5 years: c-index = 0.71; hip/femur fracture for 10 years: c-index = 0.73; major osteoporotic fracture for 10 years: c-index = 0.68). The predicted probabilities globally agreed with the observed probabilities. In conclusion, the derived models had adequate predictive performance in internal validation. As a final step, these models should be validated in an external cohort and used to develop indicators for surveillance of osteoporosis. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Bone Quality and Fractures in Women With Osteoporosis Treated With Bisphosphonates for 1 to 14 Years

Oral bisphosphonates are the primary medication for osteoporosis, but concerns exist regarding potential bone-quality changes or low-energy fractures. This cross-sectional study used artificial intelligence methods to analyze relationships among bisphosphonate treatment duration, a wide variety of bone-quality parameters, and low-energy fractures. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and histomorphometry quantified bone-quality parameters in 67 osteoporotic women treated with oral bisphosphonates for 1 to 14 years. Artificial intelligence methods established two models relating bisphosphonate treatment duration to bone-quality changes and to low-energy clinical fractures. The model relating bisphosphonate treatment duration to bone quality demonstrated optimal performance when treatment durations of 1 to 8 years were separated from treatment durations of 9 to 14 years. This may be due to a change in relationship of bone-quality parameters with treatment duration. This model also showed that the effects of bisphosphonate treatment duration were most highly correlated with changes in means and standard deviations of infrared spectroscopically derived mineral and matrix parameters and histomorphometric bone turnover parameters. A second model related treatment duration to bone fracture in all 22 patients who fractured while on treatment with bisphosphonates for more than 8 years. This second model showed that bisphosphonate treatment duration, not hip bone mineral density (BMD), was the most strongly correlated parameter to these low-energy bone fractures. Application of artificial intelligence enabled analysis of large quantities of structural, cellular, mineral, and matrix bone-quality parameters to determine relationships with long-term oral bisphosphonate treatment and fracture. Infrared spectroscopy provides clinically relevant bone-quality information of which bone mineral purity is among the most relevant. Nine or more years of bisphosphonate treatment was associated with abnormal bone mineral purity, matrix abnormalities, and low-energy fractures. These data justify limiting bisphosphonate treatment duration to 8 years. © 2021 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Predicting Imminent Fractures in Patients With a Recent Fracture or Starting Oral Bisphosphonate Therapy: Development and International Validation of Prognostic Models

The availability of anti-osteoporosis medications with rapid onset and high potency requires tools to identify patients at high imminent fracture risk (IFR). There are few tools that predict a patient's IFR. We aimed to develop and validate tools for patients with a recent fracture and for patients initiating oral bisphosphonate therapy. Models for two separate cohorts, those with incident fragility fracture (IFx) and with incident oral bisphosphonate prescription (OBP), were developed in primary care records from Spain (SIDIAP database), UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD), and Denmark (Danish Health Registries). Separate models were developed for hip, major, and any fracture outcomes. Only variables present in all databases were included in Lasso regression models for the development and logistic regression models for external validation. Discrimination was tested using area under curve (AUC) and calibration was assessed using observed versus predicted risk plots stratified by age, sex, and previous fracture history. The development analyses included 35,526 individuals in the IFx and 41,401 in the OBP cohorts, with 671,094 in IFx and 330,256 in OBP for the validation analyses. Both the IFx and OBP models demonstrated similarly good performance for hip fracture at 1 year (with AUCs of 0.79 [95% CI 0.75 to 0.82] and 0.87 [0.83 to 0.91] in Spain, 0.71 [0.71 to 0.72] and 0.73 [0.72 to 0.74] in the UK, and 0.70 [0.70 to 0.70] and 0.69 [0.68 to 0.70] in Denmark), and lower discrimination for major osteoporotic and any fracture sites. Calibration was good across all three countries. Discrimination and calibration for the 2-year models was similar. The proposed IFR prediction models could be used to identify more precisely patients at high imminent risk of fracture and inform anti-osteoporosis treatment selection. The freely available model parameters permit local validation and implementation. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Bariatric surgery increases the rate of major fracture: self-controlled case series study in UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink

Conflicting results exist about the relationship between bariatric surgery and fracture risk. Also, prediction of who is at increased risk of fracture after bariatric surgery is not currently available. Hence, we used a combination of a self-controlled case series (SCCS) study to establish the association between bariatric surgery and fracture, and develop a prediction model for postoperative fracture risk estimation using a cohort study. Patients from UK Primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD linked to Hospital Episode Statistics undergoing bariatric surgery with body mass index (BMI) ≥30 kg/m2 between 1997 and 2018 were included in the cohort. Those sustaining one or more fractures in the 5 years before or after surgery were included in the SCCS. Fractures were considered in three categories: (i) any except skull and digits (primary outcome); (ii) major (hip, vertebrae, wrist/forearm, and humerus); and (iii) peripheral (forearm and lower leg). Of 5487 participants, 252 (4.6%) experienced 272 fractures (of which 80 were major and 135 peripheral) and were included in the SCCS analyses. Major fracture risk increased after surgery, incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 2.77 (95% CI, 1.34-5.75) and 3.78 (95% CI, 1.42-10.08) at ≤3 years and 3.1 to 5 years postsurgery when compared to 5 years prior to surgery, respectively. Any fracture risk was higher only in the 2.1 to 5 years following surgery (IRR 1.73; 95% CI, 1.08-2.77) when compared to 5 years prior to surgery. No excess risk of peripheral fracture after surgery was identified. A prediction tool for major fracture was developed using 5487 participants included in the cohort study. It was also internally validated (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUC ROC] 0.70) with use of anxiolytics/sedatives/hypnotics and female as major predictors. Hence, major fractures are nearly threefold more likely after bariatric surgery. A simple prediction tool with five variables identifies high risk patients for major fracture. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Systematic review of major osteoporotic fracture to hip fracture incidence rate ratios worldwide: implications for Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)-derived estimates

The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) is the most widely used tool for fracture prediction. It provides 10-year probabilities for hip and major osteoporotic fracture (MOF). It uses country-specific hip fracture incidence and life expectancy data, and for most countries, MOF/hip fracture incidence rate ratios (IRRs) from Malmo Sweden. However, the risk of MOF varies by age, sex, and geography. The objective is to compare the MOF/hip IRRs across countries, by sex and age. This systematic review targeted observational studies of MOF and hip fractures in individuals >50 years (PROSPERO 2019 CRD42019129259). One reviewer screened potential articles. Two reviewers completed duplicate and independent data abstraction, and assessed study quality based on population representativeness, study design and duration, definition of ethnicity, and fracture characteristics. We calculated the MOF/hip IRRs (95% confidence interval) and Z-values to compare IRRs in various countries to those for Sweden. We included 27 studies, of fair to good quality in the majority, from Europe (15), US and Canada (7), Asia (3), and Australia (2). The IRRs were twofold to 10-fold higher in younger compared to older age categories, and in women compared to men, with few exceptions. Within Europe, and using Sweden as a reference, MOF/Hip IRRs in women 50-54 years from Finland, Italy, Netherlands, Denmark, and UK were significantly lower by 38% to 60%. Findings were similar in men. At older ages, MOF/Hip IRRs were consistently lower in women from European countries compared to Sweden, by 10%-40% and 11%-51%, at 75-79 years and 85-89 years, respectively. Findings were heterogenous in men and in non-European countries. In conclusion, the MOF/hip fracture IRR may vary between countries. The variability at older ages may affect FRAX prediction when country-specific fracture IRRs are not used. Further research is needed to elucidate the implication of our findings to FRAX-derived MOF estimates in various countries. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Bone Radiomics Score Derived From DXA Hip Images Enhances Hip Fracture Prediction in Older Women

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-based bone mineral density testing is standard to diagnose osteoporosis to detect individuals at high risk of fracture. A radiomics approach to extract quantifiable texture features from DXA hip images may improve hip fracture prediction without additional costs. Here, we investigated whether bone radiomics scores from DXA hip images could improve hip fracture prediction in a community-based cohort of older women. The derivation set (143 women who sustained hip fracture [mean age 73 years, time to fracture median 2.1 years] versus 290 age-matched women [mean age 73 years] who did not sustain hip fracture during follow-up [median 5.5 years]) were split into the train set (75%) and the test set (25% hold-out set). Among various models using 14 selected features out of 300 texture features mined from DXA hip images in the train set, random forest model was selected as the best model to build a bone radiomics score (range 0 to 100) based on the performance in the test set. In a community-based cohort (2029 women, mean age 71 years) as the clinical validation set, the bone radiomics score was calculated using a model fitted in the train set. A total of 34 participants (1.7%) sustained hip fracture during median follow-up of 5.4 years (mean bone radiomics score 40 ± 16 versus 28 ± 12 in non-fractured, p < 0.001). A one-point bone radiomics score increment was associated with a 4% elevated risk of incident hip fracture (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.04, p = 0.001) after adjustment for age, body mass index (BMI), previous history of fracture, and femoral neck T-score, with improved model fit when added to covariates (likelihood ratio chi-square 10.74, p = 0.001). The association between bone radiomics score with incident hip fracture remained robust (aHR = 1.06, p < 0.001) after adjustment for FRAX hip fracture probability. Bone radiomics scores estimated from texture features of DXA hip images have the potential to improve hip fracture prediction. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Fractures After Denosumab Discontinuation: A Retrospective Study of 797 Cases

A rebound of osteoclast activity during the 2 years after a treatment or prevention of osteoporosis with denosumab (Dmab) leads to an increased risk of vertebral fractures (VFs). We attempted to identify the risk factors for these VF and to examine the protective role of bisphosphonates. For that, 22 specialists in Switzerland provided data of unselected patients, treated with denosumab for osteoporosis or breast cancer without metastases under aromatase inhibitors, who have received at least two injections of Dmab, with at least 1 year of follow-up after discontinuation. The questionnaire covered separately the periods before, during, and after Dmab treatment, and registered clinical, radiological, and lab data. For the analysis of the risk factors, the main outcomes were the time to the first VF after the treatment, the presence of multiple VFs (MVFs), and the number of VFs. The incidence of VF was 16.4% before, 2.2% during, and 10.3% after the treatment with Dmab. The risk of VF after Dmab discontinuation was associated with an increased risk of non-vertebral fractures. The pretreatment predictors of the post-treatment fracture risk were a parental hip fracture and previous VFs. Further risk factors appeared later, such as low total hip bone mineral density (BMD) during and after denosumab, increased bone resorption markers, and the loss of total hip BMD after the denosumab. Treatment with bisphosphonates, especially after Dmab, had a protective effect. Bisphosphonates given before Dmab did not further decrease the risk of VF in cases who got bisphosphonates after Dmab. This study shows that the risk of VF is poorly predictable before the prescription of denosumab. But during and after the treatment, bone resorption markers and BMD have a significant predictive value. Bisphosphonates after the treatment with denosumab are protective against VFs. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

The Accuracy of Incident Vertebral Fracture Detection in Children Using Targeted Case-Finding Approaches

Vertebral fractures are clinically important sequelae of a wide array of pediatric diseases. In this study, we examined the accuracy of case-finding strategies for detecting incident vertebral fractures (IVF) over 2 years in glucocorticoid-treated children (n = 343) with leukemia, rheumatic disorders, or nephrotic syndrome. Two clinical situations were addressed: the prevalent vertebral fracture (PVF) scenario (when baseline PVF status was known), which assessed the utility of PVF and low lumbar spine bone mineral density (LS BMD; Z-score <-1.4), and the non-PVF scenario (when PVF status was unknown), which evaluated low LS BMD and back pain. LS BMD was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, vertebral fractures were quantified on spine radiographs using the modified Genant semiquantitative method, and back pain was assessed by patient report. Forty-four patients (12.8%) had IVF. In the PVF scenario, both low LS BMD and PVF were significant predictors of IVF. Using PVF to determine which patients should have radiographs, 11% would undergo radiography (95% confidence interval [CI] 8-15) with 46% of IVF (95% CI 30-61) detected. Sensitivity would be higher with a strategy of PVF or low LS BMD at baseline (73%; 95% CI 57-85) but would require radiographs in 37% of children (95% CI 32-42). In the non-PVF scenario, the strategy of low LS BMD and back pain produced the highest specificity of any non-PVF model at 87% (95% CI 83-91), the greatest overall accuracy at 82% (95% CI 78-86), and the lowest radiography rate at 17% (95% CI 14-22). Low LS BMD or back pain in the non-PVF scenario produced the highest sensitivity at 82% (95% CI 67-92), but required radiographs in 65% (95% CI 60-70). These results provide guidance for targeting spine radiography in children at risk for IVF. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Erythropoietin treatment and the risk of hip fractures in hemodialysis patients

Erythropoietin (EPO) is the primary regulator of bone marrow erythropoiesis. Mouse models have provided evidence that EPO also promotes bone remodeling and that EPO-stimulated erythropoiesis is accompanied by bone loss independent of increased red blood cell production. EPO has been used clinically for three decades to treat anemia in end-stage renal disease, and notably, although the incidence of hip fractures decreased in the United States generally after 1990, it rose among hemodialysis patients coincident with the introduction and subsequent dose escalation of EPO treatment. Given this clinical paradox and findings from studies in mice that elevated EPO affects bone health, we examined EPO treatment as a risk factor for fractures in hemodialysis patients. Relationships between EPO treatment and hip fractures were analyzed using United States Renal Data System (USRDS) datasets from 1997 to 2013 and Consolidated Renal Operations in a Web-enabled Network (CROWNWeb) datasets for 2013. Fracture risks for patients treated with <50 units of EPO/kg/week were compared to those receiving higher doses by multivariable Cox regression. Hip fracture rates for 747,832 patients in USRDS datasets (1997-2013) increased from 12.0 per 1000 patient years in 1997 to 18.9 in 2004, then decreased to 13.1 by 2013. Concomitantly, average EPO doses increased from 11,900 units/week in 1997 to 18,300 in 2004, then decreased to 8,800 by 2013. During this time, adjusted hazard ratios for hip fractures with EPO doses of 50-149, 150-299, and ≥ 300 units/kg/week compared to <50 units/kg/week were 1.08 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.15), 1.22 (95% CI, 1.14-1.31), and 1.41 (95% CI, 1.31-1.52), respectively. Multivariable analyses of 128,941 patients in CROWNWeb datasets (2013) replicated these findings. This study implicates EPO treatment as an independent risk factor for hip fractures in hemodialysis patients and supports the conclusion that EPO treatment may have contributed to changing trends in fracture incidence for these patients during recent decades. Published 2021. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Prior loss of body mass index, low body mass index, and central obesity independently contribute to higher rates of fractures in elderly women and men

We aimed to comprehensively evaluate the association of body composition with fracture risk using longitudinal data from a Swedish cohort of 44,366 women and men (mean age of 70 years) and a subcohort of 5022 women. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) of fracture for baseline body mass index (BMI), BMI change during the prior 12 and 18 years, baseline waist-to-height ratio, total and regional distribution of fat and lean mass, with and without areal bone mineral density (BMD) adjustment. During follow-up (median 8.7 years), 7290 individuals sustained a fracture, including 4279 fragility fractures, of which 1813 were hip fractures. Higher baseline BMI and prior gain in BMI were inversely associated with all types of fracture. Lower fracture rate with higher baseline BMI was seen within every category of prior BMI change, whereas higher prior BMI gain conferred a lower rate of fracture within those with normal baseline BMI. Each standard deviation (SD) higher baseline waist-to-height ratio, after adjustment for BMI, was associated with higher rates of hip fracture in both women and men (HR 1.12; 95% CI, 1.05-1.19). In the subcohort (median follow-up 10 years), higher baseline fat mass index (FMI) and appendicular lean mass index (LMI) showed fracture-protective effects. After BMD adjustment, higher baseline BMI, total LMI, FMI, and higher prior BMI gain were associated with higher fracture rate. Baseline fat distribution also was associated with fracture rate; a 1-SD higher android to gynoid fat mass ratio in prior BMI gainers was associated with BMD-adjusted HRs of 1.16 (95% CI, 1.05-1.28) for any fracture and 1.48 (95% CI, 1.16-1.89) for hip fracture. This pattern was not observed among prior BMI losers. These findings indicate that for optimal fracture prevention, low baseline BMI, prior BMI loss and high baseline central obesity should be avoided in both women and men. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy increases nontraumatic fracture risk in breast cancer survivors

Chemotherapy is a common treatment for breast cancer (BrCa) and can cause chemotherapy‐induced peripheral neuropathy (CIPN). CIPN contributes to falls, and is thus a potential risk factor for nontraumatic fractures (NTFx); yet, the effect of CIPN on NTFx risk has not been examined for BrCa survivors. We therefore investigated the association between CIPN and NTFx in BrCa survivors. Data were extracted from Optum's Deidentified Clinformatics® Data Mart Database years 2010–2015 in this retrospective cohort study. Among women, three groups were derived based on BrCa and CIPN status: BrCa+/CIPN+ (primary group of interest), BrCa+/CIPN− (first comparison group), and BrCa−/CIPN− (second comparison group). After propensity score matching the comparison groups to BrCa+/CIPN+ at a ratio of 1:11 (BrCa:control) for demographics, osteoporosis, glucocorticoid medication, comorbidities, and cancer‐related variables for BrCa+/CIPN−, 1‐year incidence rate (IR) of NTFx was determined for each group. The incident rate ratio (IRR) determined if the IR for NTFx was different for BrCa+/CIPN+ compared to BrCa+/CIPN− and BrCa−/CIPN−. Cox proportional hazards regression models estimated the hazard ratios (HRs) after adjusting for covariates that were unable to be matched for. The crude IR (95% confidence interval [CI]) of NTFx was 4.54 (2.32–6.77) for BrCa+/CIPN+ (n = 359), 2.53 (2.03–3.04) for BrCa+/CIPN− (n = 3949), and 1.76 (1.35–2.18) for BrCa−/CIPN− (n = 3949). The crude IRR of NTFx was significantly elevated for BrCa+/CIPN+ as compared to BrCa+/CIPN− (IRR = 1.80; 95% CI, 1.06–3.05) and BrCa−/CIPN− (IRR = 2.58; 95% CI, 1.50–4.44). The elevated rate of NTFx for BrCa+/CIPN+ remained unchanged after adjusting for aromatase inhibitors compared to BrCa+/CIPN− (HR = 1.79; 95% CI, 1.06–3.04). Female BrCa survivors have an increased 1‐year IR of NTFx after the onset of CIPN, suggesting that CIPN is an additive burden on NTFx risk among BrCa survivors. © 2021 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Refracture and mortality following hospitalization for severe osteoporotic fractures: The Fractos Study

Severe osteoporotic fractures (hip, proximal humerus, pelvic, vertebral and multiple rib fractures) carry an increased risk of mortality. This retrospective cohort study in the French national healthcare database aimed to estimate refracture and mortality rates after severe osteoporotic fractures at different sites, and to identify mortality‐related variables. A total of 356,895 patients hospitalized for severe osteoporotic fracture between 2009 and 2014 inclusive were analyzed. The cohort was followed for 2 to 8 years up to the study end or until the patient died. Data were extracted on subsequent hospitalizations, refracture events, treatments, comorbidities of interest and survival. Time to refracture and survival were described using Kaplan‐Meier analysis by site of fracture and overall. Mortality risk factors were identified using a Cox model. Hip fractures accounted for 60.4% of the sample (N = 215,672). In the 12 months following fracture, 58,220 patients (16.7%) received a specific osteoporosis treatment, of whom 21,228 were previously treatment‐naïve. The 12‐month refracture rate was 6.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.2%–6.3%), ranging from 4.0% (95% CI, 3.7%–4.3%) for multiple rib fractures to 7.8% (95% CI, 7.5%–8.1%) for pelvic fractures. Twelve‐month all‐cause mortality was 12.8% (95% CI, 12.7%–12.9%), ranging from 5.0% (95% CI, 4.7%–5.2%) for vertebral fractures to 16.6% (95% CI, 16.4%–16.7%) for hip fractures. Osteoporosis‐related mortality risk factors included fracture site, previous osteoporotic fracture (hazard ratio 1.21; 95% CI, 1.18–1.23), hip refracture (1.74; 95% CI, 1.71–1.77), and no prior osteoporosis treatment (1.24; 95% CI, 1.22–1.26). Comorbid cancer (3.15; 95% CI, 3.09–3.21) and liver disease (2.54; 95% CI, 2.40–2.68) were also strongly associated with mortality. In conclusion, severe osteoporotic fractures, including certain non‐hip nonvertebral fractures, carry a high burden in terms of mortality and refracture risk. However, most patients received no anti‐osteoporotic treatment. The findings emphasize the importance of better management of patients with severe fractures, and of developing effective strategies to reduce fracture risk in patients with osteoporosis. © 2021 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Effects of Osteoporosis on Bone Morphometry and Material Properties of Individual Human Trabeculae in the Femoral Head

Osteoporosis is the most common bone disease and is conventionally classified as a decrease of total bone mass. Current diagnosis of osteoporosis is based on clinical risk factors and dual energy X‐ray absorptiometry (DEXA) scans, but changes in bone quantity (bone mass) and quality (trabecular structure, material properties, and tissue composition) are not distinguished. Yet, osteoporosis is known to cause a deterioration of the trabecular network, which might be related to changes at the tissue scale—the material properties. The goal of the current study was to use a previously established test method to perform a thorough characterization of the material properties of individual human trabeculae from femoral heads in cyclic tensile tests in a close to physiologic, wet environment. A previously developed rheological model was used to extract elastic, viscous, and plastic aspects of material behavior. Bone morphometry and tissue mineralization were determined with a density calibrated micro‐computed tomography (μCT) set‐up. Osteoporotic trabeculae neither showed a significantly changed material or mechanical behavior nor changes in tissue mineralization, compared with age‐matched healthy controls. However, donors with osteopenia indicated significantly reduced apparent yield strain and elastic work with respect to osteoporosis, suggesting possible initial differences at disease onset. Bone morphometry indicated a lower bone volume to total volume for osteoporotic donors, caused by a smaller trabecular number and a larger trabecular separation. A correlation of age with tissue properties and bone morphometry revealed a similar behavior as in osteoporotic bone. In the range studied, age does affect morphometry but not material properties, except for moderately increased tissue strength in healthy donors and moderately increased hardening exponent in osteoporotic donors. Taken together, the distinct changes of trabecular bone quality in the femoral head caused by osteoporosis and aging could not be linked to suspected relevant changes in material properties or tissue mineralization. © 2021 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Physical Activity and Psychosocial Factors Associated With Risk of Future Fractures in Middle-Aged Men and Women

Identification of risk factors for fractures is important for improving public health. We aimed to identify which factors related to physical activity and psychosocial situation were associated with incident fractures among 30,446 middle-aged women and men, followed from 1991-1996 to 2016, in a prospective population-based cohort study. The association between the baseline variables and first incident fracture was assessed by Cox regression models, and significant risk factors were summed into fracture risk scores. Any first incident fracture affecting spine, thoracic cage, arms, shoulders, hands, pelvis, hips, or legs was obtained from the National Patient Register, using the unique personal identity number of each citizen. A total of 8240 subjects (27%) had at least one fracture during the follow-up of median 20.7 years. Age, female sex, body mass index, previous fracture, reported family history of fracture >50 years (all p < .001), low leisure-time physical activity (p = .018), heavy work (p = .024), living alone (p = .002), smoking (p < .001), and no or high alcohol consumption (p = .005) were factors independently associated with incident fracture. The fracture risk score (0-9 points) was strongly associated with incident fracture (p for trend <.001). Among men without risk factors, the incidence rate was 5.3/1000 person-years compared with 23.2 in men with six or more risk factors (hazard ratio [HR] = 5.5; 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.7-8.2). Among women with no risk factors, the incidence rate was 10.7 compared with 28.4 in women with six or more risk factors (HR = 3.1; 95% CI 2.4-4.0). Even moderate levels of leisure-time physical activity in middle age are associated with lower risk of future fractures. In contrast, heavy work, living alone, smoking, and no or high alcohol consumption increase the risk of fracture. Our results emphasize the importance of these factors in public health initiatives for fracture prevention. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Osteoporosis, Fractures, and Bone Mineral Density Screening in Veterans With Kidney Stone Disease

Whether a link exists between kidney stone disease and osteoporosis or fractures remains an open question. In this retrospective cohort study, we sought to determine the prevalence of osteoporosis and fractures and rate of bone mineral density screening by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in patients with kidney stone disease. We examined nationwide data from the Veterans Health Administration and identified 531,431 patients with kidney stone disease between 2007 and 2015. Nearly 1 in 4 patients (23.6%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 23.5-23.7) with kidney stone disease had a prevalent diagnosis of osteoporosis or fracture. In patients with no prior history of osteoporosis or bone mineral density assessment before a kidney stone diagnosis, 9.1% were screened with DXA after their kidney stone diagnosis, of whom 20% were subsequently diagnosed with osteoporosis. Our findings provide support for wider use of bone mineral density screening in patients with kidney stone disease, including middle-aged and older men, a group less well recognized as at risk for osteoporosis or fractures. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Patterns of Load-to-Strength Ratios Along the Spine in a Population-Based Cohort to Evaluate the Contribution of Spinal Loading to Vertebral Fractures

Vertebral fractures (VFx) are common among older adults. Epidemiological studies report high occurrence of VFx at mid-thoracic and thoracolumbar regions of the spine; however, reasons for this observation remain poorly understood. Prior reports of high ratios of spinal loading to vertebral strength in the thoracolumbar region suggest a possible biomechanical explanation. However, no studies have evaluated load-to-strength ratios (LSRs) throughout the spine for a large number of activities in a sizeable cohort. Thus, we performed a cross-sectional study in a sample of adult men and women from a population-based cohort to: 1) determine which activities cause the largest vertebral LSRs, and 2) examine patterns of LSRs along the spine for these high-load activities. We used subject-specific musculoskeletal models of the trunk to determine vertebral compressive loads for 109 activities in 250 individuals (aged 41 to 90 years, 50% women) from the Framingham Heart Study. Vertebral compressive strengths from T₄ to L₄ were calculated from computed tomography-based vertebral size and bone density measurements. We determined which activities caused maximum LSRs at each of these spinal levels. We identified nine activities that accounted for >95% of the maximum LSRs overall and at least 89.6% at each spinal level. The activity with the highest LSR varied by spinal level, and three distinct spinal regions could be identified by the activity producing maximum LSRs: lateral bending with a weight in one hand (upper thoracic), holding weights with elbows flexed (lower thoracic), and forward flexion with weight (lumbar). This study highlights the need to consider a range of lifting, holding, and non-symmetric activities when evaluating vertebral LSRs. Moreover, we identified key activities that produce higher loading in multiple regions of the spine. These results provide the first guidance on what activities to consider when evaluating vertebral load-to-strength ratios in future studies, including those examining dynamic motions and the biomechanics of VFx. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Race and Ethnicity Predict Bone Markers and Fracture in Pediatric Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease

Studies in healthy children have shown racial-ethnic differences in bone markers and bone outcomes including fractures. At present, limited studies have evaluated the impact of race and ethnicity on bone markers and fractures within the pediatric chronic kidney disease (CKD) population. In a cohort study of 762 children between the ages of 1.5 years and 18 years, with CKD stages 1 to 4 from the CKD in children (CKiD) cohort, the relationship between racial-ethnic group and bone markers (parathyroid hormone [PTH], 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25-OHD], 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D [1,25(OH)₂ D], and C-terminal fibroblast growth factor [FGF23]) was determined using linear mixed models. Additionally, logistic regression was used to evaluate racial-ethnic differences in prevalent fracture upon study entry. Black race was associated with 23% higher PTH levels (confidence interval [CI], 2.5% to 47.7%; p = .03), 33.1% lower 25-OHD levels (CI, -39.7% to -25.7%; p < .0001), and no difference in C-terminal FGF23 or 1,25(OH)₂ D levels when compared to whites. Hispanic ethnicity was associated with 15.9% lower C-terminal FGF23 levels (CI, -28.3% to -1.5%; p = .03) and 13.8% lower 25-OHD levels (CI, -22.2% to -4.5%; p = .005) when compared to whites. Black and Hispanic children had 74% (odds ratio [OR] 0.26; CI, 0.14 to 0.49; p = .001) and 66% (OR 0.34; CI, 0.17 to 0.65; p < .0001) lower odds of any fracture than white children at study entry, respectively. Race and ethnicity are associated with differences in bone markers and despite lower 25-OHD levels, both black and Hispanic children with CKD reported a lower prevalent fracture history than white children. The current findings in the CKD population are similar to racial-ethnic differences described in healthy children. Additional studies are needed to better understand how these differences might impact the management of pediatric CKD-MBD. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Clinical Utility of Computer-Aided Diagnosis of Vertebral Fractures From Computed Tomography Images

Osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (VCFs) are a risk factor for morbidity and mortality, frequently asymptomatic and often present in computed tomography (CT) scans performed for unrelated conditions. Computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) of VCF from such images can potentially improve identification and treatment of osteoporosis. This single-blinded, single tertiary center study compared a CAD (Zebra Medical Vision®) to an adjudicated imaging specialist reevaluation using a retrospective consecutive sample of abdominal and thoracic CT scans (n = 2357) performed as part of routine care. Subjects over 50 years between January 1, 2019 and May 12, 2019 were included. Duplicates and unanalyzable scans were excluded resulting in a total of 1696 CT scans. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were calculated for all VCF and for Genant grades 2 or 3 (ie, height loss of >25%) using imaging specialist as the gold standard. Prestudy VCF reporting by hospital-rostered radiologist was used to calculate the number of scans needed to screen (NNS) to detect one additional VCF using CAD. Prevalence of any VCF was 24% (406/1696) and of Genant 2/3 VCF was 18% (280/1570). The sensitivity and specificity were 54% and 92%, for all fractures, respectively, and 65% and 92% for Genant 2/3 fractures, respectively. Accuracy for any VCF, and for detection of Genant 2/3 VCF, was 83% and 88%, respectively. Of 221 CAD-detected VCFs, 133 (60.2%) were reported prestudy resulting in 88 additional fractures (72 Genant 2/3) being identified by CAD. NNS to detect one additional VCF was 19 scans for all fractures and 23 for Genant 2/3 fractures. Thus, the CAD tested in this study had a high specificity with moderate sensitivity to detect incidental vertebral fractures in CT scans performed for routine care. A low NNS suggests it is an efficient tool to assist radiologists and clinicians to improve detection and reporting of vertebral fractures. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Bisphosphonate Use Is Protective of Radiographic Knee Osteoarthritis Progression Among those With Low Disease Severity and Being Non-Overweight: Data From the Osteoarthritis Initiative

Antiresorptive medications have been explored for treating knee osteoarthritis (OA); however, little data exist on the effects of today's more potent nitrogen-containing oral bisphosphonates on radiographic disease-progression in patients with varying disease-severity, especially those who are not overweight. The primary objective of this cohort study was to determine if the use of bisphosphonates is protective against 2-year radiographic-progression of knee OA in Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) participants, stratified by baseline radiographic disease status. Secondary objectives were to examine effects in non-overweight participants (body mass index [BMI] < 25 kg/m² ) and cumulative bisphosphonate exposure effects. We identified female OAI participants aged ≥50 years and excluded those missing baseline radiograph readings, bisphosphonate use information, or all clinical questionnaire information at baseline. Participants reporting bisphosphonate use (69% alendronate) were propensity-matched 1:1 to non-bisphosphonate users and followed until first radiographic knee OA progression (1-unit increase in Kellgren and Lawrence [KL] grade) or data were censored (first missed visit or end of 2-year follow-up). Discrete-time logistic regression models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) between bisphosphonate users versus nonusers, with an interaction term for baseline KL grade (KL <2 or KL ≥2). We identified 1977 eligible women (n = 346 bisphosphonate users). Propensity-matched results indicated that bisphosphonate users with KL grade <2 were protected against progression (HR_KL<2 0.53; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.79), while bisphosphonate use was not associated with radiographic progression in those with KL grade ≥2 (HR_KL≥2 1.06; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.35). When restricting analyses to those with BMI <25 kg/m² , effects were strengthened (HR_KL<2 0.49 [95% CI, 0.26 to 0.92]; HR_KL≥2 0.69 [95% CI, 0.33 to 1.26]). Duration of bisphosphonate use had no effect on progression, though sample size was limited. Bisphosphonate therapy may be protective against radiographic knee OA progression in early-stage patients, particularly those who are non-overweight, but less so for those with more advanced disease or more weight-bearing joint stress. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Comparison of Vertebral and Femoral Strength Between White and Asian Adults Using Finite Element Analysis of Computed Tomography Scans

Given non-optimal testing rates for dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and the high use of computed tomography (CT) in some Asian countries, biomechanical computed tomography analysis (BCT)-based bone strength testing, which utilizes previously taken clinical CT scans, may improve osteoporosis testing rates. However, an understanding of ethnic differences in such bone strength measurements between Whites and Asians is lacking, which is an obstacle to clinical interpretation. Using previously taken CT and DXA scans, we analyzed bone strength and bone mineral density (BMD) at the hip and spine in two sex- and age-matched community-based cohorts, aged 40 to 80 years: Whites (Rochester, MN, USA) and Koreans (Seoul, South Korea). For both the spine and femur, the age dependence of bone strength was similar for both groups, White (n = 371; women n = 202, 54.5%) and Korean (n = 396; women n = 199, 50.3%). For both sexes, mean spine strength did not differ between groups, but femur strength was 9% to 14% higher in Whites (p ≤ 0.001), an effect that became non-significant after weight adjustment (p = 0.375). For Koreans of both sexes, the fragile bone strength thresholds for classifying osteoporosis, when derived from regional DXA BMD T-score references, equaled the clinically validated thresholds for Whites (in women and men, femoral strength, 3000 N and 3500 N; vertebral strength 4500 N and 6500 N, respectively). Using these thresholds, classifications for osteoporosis for Koreans based on bone strength versus based on DXA BMD T-scores were consistent (89.1% to 94.4% agreement) at both the hip and spine and for both sexes. The BCT-based, clinically validated bone strength thresholds for Whites also applied to Koreans, which may facilitate clinical interpretation of CT-based bone strength measurements for Koreans. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Quantitative Computed Tomography Assessment of Bone Deficits in Ambulatory Children and Adolescents with Spina Bifida: Importance of Puberty

Pathologic fractures of the femur and tibia are common in youth with spina bifida (SB). These fractures may be associated with deficient bone accrual due to decreased ambulation and skeletal loading. This prospective cohort study used quantitative computed tomography (QCT) to assess three-dimensional (3D) bone properties in children and adolescents with SB. Eighty-three ambulatory youth with SB underwent QCT imaging of the tibia at up to four annual visits between ages 6 to 16 years (294 total visits averaging 3.5 visits/patient). A total of 177 controls without disability and 10 non-ambulatory youth with SB underwent imaging once. Bone geometric properties (cortical bone area, cross-sectional area, cortical thickness, cortical density, and moments of inertia) were measured at the mid-diaphysis (50% of bone length); cross-sectional area, cancellous density, and density-weighted area were measured in the proximal (13% of bone length) and distal (90% of bone length) metaphyses. Bone properties were compared between the ambulatory SB and control participants, among SB neurosegmental subgroups (sacral, low lumbar, mid lumbar and above) as a function of pubertal stage (prepubertal, pubertal, postpubertal), and considering SB type (myelomeningocele, lipomyelomeningocele) using linear mixed effects models adjusted for sex, age, height percentile, and body mass index (BMI) percentile. Only cancellous density of both metaphyses and weighted area of the proximal metaphysis differed between ambulatory children with SB and controls before puberty. However, significant deficits in all bone properties manifested during and after puberty as moderate bone growth in the SB group failed to keep pace with the large increases normally observed during puberty. The bone deficits primarily affected patients with myelomeningocele, and similar deficits were observed at all neurosegmental levels except that cancellous density was closer to normal in the sacral group. Descriptive analysis of the 10 non-ambulatory youth with SB showed greater bone deficits than ambulatory children, particularly for cancellous density in the distal metaphysis. © 2020 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Impact of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus on Skeletal Integrity and Strength in Adolescents as Assessed by HRpQCT

Adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) are at risk of premature osteoporosis and fractures. The onset of T1DM typically starts during childhood and adolescence. Thus, the effects of DM on the skeleton may be established during this period. Studies in children with T1DM primarily use DXA with conflicting results. We present the first study in adolescents assessing the impact of T1DM on skeletal microstructure and strength using HRpQCT. We recruited 22 patients aged 12 to 16 years with T1DM who were matched by age, gender, and pubertal stage with healthy controls. Paired t tests were applied to assess differences in cortical and trabecular microarchitecture measurements from HRpQCT, and skeletal strength from HRpQCT-derived microfinite element analysis. Subtotal body, lumbar, and pelvic parameters were assessed using DXA. There was no significant difference in subtotal body, lumbar spine, and pelvic BMD between T1DM and control pairs. However, tibial trabecular thickness was lower (-0.005 mm; 95% CI, -0.01 to -0.001; p = 0.029) and trabecular loading was lower at the distal radius (ratio of the load taken by the trabecular bone in relation to the total load at the distal end (Tb.F/TF) distal: -6.2; 95% CI, -12.4 to -0.03; p = 0.049), and distal and proximal tibia (Tb.F/TF distal: -5.2, 95% CI, -9.2 to -1.2; p = 0.013; and Tb.F/TF proximal: -5.0, 95% CI, -9.8 to -0.1; p = 0.047) in T1DM patients. A subanalysis of radial data of participants with duration of T1DM of at least 2 years and their matched controls demonstrated a reduced trabecular bone number (-0.15, 95% CI, -0.26 to -0.04; p = 0.012), increased trabecular separation (0.041 mm, 95% CI, 0.009-0.072; p = 0.015), an increased trabecular inhomogeneity (0.018, 95% CI, 0.003-0.034; p = 0.021). Regression models demonstrated a reduction in tibial stiffness (-0.877 kN/mm; p = 0.03) and tibial failure load (-0.044 kN; p = 0.03) with higher HbA1C. Thus, in adolescents with T1DM, detrimental changes are seen in tibial and radial microarchitecture and tibial and radial strength before changes in DXA occur and may result from poor diabetic control. © 2020 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Lung-Specific Risk Factors Associated With Incident Hip Fracture in Current and Former Smokers

Hip fractures are associated with significant morbidity and mortality in smokers with lung disease, but whether lung-specific factors are associated with fracture risk is unknown. Our goal was to determine whether lung-specific factors associate with incident hip fracture and improve risk discrimination of traditional fracture risk models in smokers. The analysis consisted of a convenience sample of 9187 current and former smokers (58,477 participant follow-up years) participating in the Genetic Epidemiology of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) longitudinal observational cohort study. Participants were enrolled between 2008 and 2011 with follow-up data collection through July 2018. Traditional risk factors associated with incident hip fracture (n = 361) included age, female sex, osteoporosis, prevalent spine and hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis, and diabetes. Lung-specific risk factors included post-bronchodilator percent forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁ %) predicted (OR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.92-0.99 for each 10% increase), Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) classification (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.002-1.19 for each higher stage), presence of CT-determined emphysema (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.06-1.69), symptom scores (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.03-1.19 for each higher unit score), 6-min walk distance (OR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.90-0.95 for each 30-m increase), body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise (BODE) index (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.01-1.13 for each higher unit score), total exacerbations (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.10-1.16 per exacerbation), and annual exacerbations (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.21-1.55 per exacerbation). In multivariable modeling, age, black race, osteoporosis, prevalent hip and spine fracture, rheumatoid arthritis, and diabetes were associated with incident hip fracture. The presence of emphysema, 6-min walk distance, and total number of exacerbations added to traditional models improved risk discrimination (integrated discrimination improvement [IDI] values 0.001 [95% CI, 0.0003-0.002], 0.001 [95% CI, 0.0001-0.002], and 0.008 [95% CI, 0.003-0.013], corresponding to relative IDIs of 12.8%, 6.3%, and 34.6%, respectively). These findings suggest that the incorporation of lung-specific risk factors into fracture risk assessment tools may more accurately predict fracture risk in smokers. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

A Polygenic Risk Score as a Risk Factor for Medication-Associated Fractures

Some commonly prescribed drugs are associated with increased risk of osteoporotic fractures. However, fracture risk stratification using skeletal measures is not often performed to identify those at risk before these medications are prescribed. We tested whether a genomically predicted skeletal measure, speed of sound (gSOS) from heel ultrasound, which was developed in 341,449 individuals from UK Biobank and tested in a separate subset consisting of 80,027 individuals, is an independent risk factor for fracture in users of fracture-related drugs (FRDs). To do this, we first assessed 80,014 UK Biobank participants (including 12,678 FRD users) for incident major osteoporotic fracture (MOF, n = 1189) and incident hip fracture (n = 209). Effects of gSOS on incident fracture were adjusted for baseline clinical fracture risk factors. We found that each standard deviation decrease in gSOS increased the adjusted odds of MOF by 42% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.34-1.51, p < 2 × 10^-16 ) and of hip fracture by 31% (95% CI 1.15-1.50, p = 9 × 10^-5 ). gSOS below versus above the mean increased the adjusted odds of MOF by 79% (95% CI 1.58-2.01, p < 2 × 10^-16 ) and of hip fracture by 42% (95% CI 1.08-1.88, p = 1.3 × 10^-2 ). Among FRD users, each standard deviation decrease in gSOS increased the adjusted odds of MOF by 29% (n_MOF = 256, 95% CI 1.14-1.46, p = 7 × 10^-5 ) and of hip fracture by 30% (n_{hip fracture} = 68, 95% CI 1.02-1.65, p = 0.0335). FRD users with gSOS below versus above the mean had a 54% increased adjusted odds of MOF (95% 1.19-1.99, p = 8.95 × 10^-4 ) and a twofold increased adjusted odds of hip fracture (95% 1.19-3.31, p = 8.5 × 10^-3 ). We therefore showed that genomically predicted heel SOS is independently associated with incident fracture among FRD users. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Post-GWAS Polygenic Risk Score: Utility and Challenges

Over the past decade, through genome‐wide association studies, more than 300 genetic variants have been identified to be associated with either BMD or fracture risk. These genetic variants are common in the general population, but they exert small to modest effects on BMD, suggesting that the utility of any single variant is limited. However, a combination of effect sizes from multiple variants in the form of the polygenic risk score (PRS) can provide a useful indicator of fracture risk beyond that obtained by conventional clinical risk factors. In this perspective, we review the progress of genetics of osteoporosis and approaches for creating PRSs, their uses, and caveats. Recent studies support the idea that the PRS, when integrated into existing fracture prediction models, can help clinicians and patients alike to better assess the fracture risk for an individual, and raise the possibility of precision risk assessment. © 2020 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

The Association of Methotrexate, Sulfasalazine, and Hydroxychloroquine Use With Fracture in Postmenopausal Women With Rheumatoid Arthritis: Findings From the Women's Health Initiative

This study was conducted to evaluate the extent to which disease‐modifying antirheumatic medications (DMARDs) used as part of a triple therapy for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) including methotrexate, sulfasalazine, and hydroxychloroquine are associated with fractures in postmenopausal women with RA. Incident fractures following use of methotrexate, sulfasalazine, and/or hydroxychloroquine in postmenopausal women with RA in the Women's Health Initiative were estimated by Cox proportional hazards using hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs after consideration of potential confounders. There were 1201 women with RA enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative included in these analyses, of which 74% were white, 17% were black, and 9% were of other or unknown race/ethnicity. Of the women with RA, 421 (35%) had not used methotrexate, sulfasalazine, or hydroxychloroquine, whereas 519 (43%) women had used methotrexate, 83 (7%) sulfasalazine, and 363 (30%) hydroxychloroquine alone or in combination at some time during study follow‐up. Over a median length of 6.46 years of follow‐up, in multivariable adjusted models, no statistically significant association was found between methotrexate (HR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.8–1.6), sulfasalazine (HR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.2–1.5), or hydroxychloroquine (HR, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.7–1.5) use and incident fractures or between combination therapy with methotrexate and sulfasalazine or methotrexate and hydroxychloroquine use (HR, 0.9; 95% CI, 0.5–1.6) and incident fractures. In conclusion, postmenopausal women with RA receiving any component of triple therapy should not be expected to have any substantial reduction in fracture risk from use of these DMARDs. © 2020 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Is Breast Size Related to Prevalent Thoracic Vertebral Fracture? A Cross-Sectional Study

Large breasts may increase the likelihood of thoracic vertebral fractures by increasing the mechanical loading of the spine. We examined breast size as a factor associated with prevalent thoracic vertebral fractures, also considering its relationship with thoracic kyphosis and upper back extensor muscle endurance. Using a cross-sectional study, the design measurements collected were thoracic vertebral fractures (≥20% loss in vertebral body height on lateral radiograph), breast size (bra size converted to an ordinal breast size score), BMD (g/cm² averaged femoral neck, DXA), upper back extensor muscle endurance (isometric chest raise test), body composition (DXA), thoracic kyphosis (radiograph), and upper back pain (numerical rating scale). Correlations and multivariable logistic regression examined relationships between characteristics and their association with vertebral fracture. Participants were 117 healthy postmenopausal women. The 17 (15%) women with ≥1 thoracic vertebral fracture had larger breast size (mean difference [MD]: 2.2 sizes; 95% CI, 0.6 to 3.8 sizes), less upper back extensor muscle endurance (MD: -38.6 s; 95% CI, -62.9 to -14.3 s), and greater thoracic kyphosis (MD: 7.3°; 95% CI, 1.7° to 12.8°) than those without vertebral fracture. There were no between group differences in age, height, weight, and BMD. Breast size (r = -0.233, p = 0.012) and thoracic kyphosis (r = -0.241, p = 0.009) correlated negatively with upper back extensor muscle endurance. Breast size was unrelated to thoracic kyphosis (r = 0.057, p = 0.542). A (final) multivariable model containing breast size (OR 1.85; 95% CI, 1.10 to 3.10) and thoracic kyphosis (OR 2.04; 95%CI, 1.12 to 3.70) explained 18% of the variance in vertebral fracture. Breast size had a significant, but weak relationship with vertebral fracture (R ² = 0.10), which was independent of BMD and unrelated to thoracic kyphosis. Further work is needed to confirm larger breast size as a risk factor for vertebral fracture. © 2020 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.