Participatory scenario development for environmental management: a methodological framework illustrated with experience from the UK uplands

Meeting the Growing Need for Land-Water System Modelling to Assess Land Management Actions

Elevated contaminant levels and hydrological alterations resulting from land use are degrading aquatic ecosystems on a global scale. A range of land management actions may be used to reduce or prevent this degradation. To select among alternative management actions, decision makers require predictions of their effectiveness, their economic impacts, estimated uncertainty in the predictions, and estimated time lags between management actions and environmental responses. There are multiple methods for generating these predictions, but the most rigorous and transparent methods involve quantitative modelling. The challenge for modellers is two-fold. First, they must employ models that represent complex land-water systems, including the causal chains linking land use to contaminant loss and water use, catchment processes that alter contaminant loads and flow regimes, and ecological responses in aquatic environments. Second, they must ensure that these models meet the needs of endusers in terms of reliability, usefulness, feasibility and transparency. Integrated modelling using coupled models to represent the land-water system can meet both challenges and has advantages over alternative approaches. The need for integrated land-water system modelling is growing as the extent and intensity of human land use increases, and regulatory agencies seek more effective land management actions to counter the adverse effects. Here we present recommendations for modelling teams, to help them improve current practices and meet the growing need for land-water system models. The recommendations address several aspects of integrated modelling: (1) assembling modelling teams; (2) problem framing and conceptual modelling; (3) developing spatial frameworks; (4) integrating economic and biophysical models; (5) selecting and coupling models.

Knowledge coproduction to improve assessments of nature's contributions to people

Sustainability science needs new approaches to produce, share, and use knowledge because there are major barriers to translating research into policy and practice. Multiple actors hold relevant knowledge for sustainability including indigenous and local people who have developed over generations knowledge, methods, and practices that biodiversity and ecosystem assessments need to capture. Despite efforts to mainstream knowledge coproduction, less than 3% of the literature on nature's contributions to people (NCP) integrates indigenous and local knowledge (ILK). Approaches and tools to better integrate scientific and ILK knowledge systems in NCP assessments are urgently needed. To fill this gap, we conducted interviews with ILK experts from Abancay and Tamburco, Peru, and convened focus groups and workshops during which participatory mapping, a serious game, a Bayesian belief network based on ILK were introduced. We inventoried 60 medicinal plants used to treat different illnesses, and analyzed the spatial distribution of the 7 plants that contribute the most to a good quality of life, and delineated their nonmedicinal uses. Based on the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services conceptual framework, we defined dimensions of a good quality of life according to indigenous and local worldviews. Medicinal plants contributed strongly to health and household security, among other contributions. Climate change and overexploitation were the main perceived threats to medicinal plants, despite the existence of formal and customary institutions to regulate trade. Our approach was flexible enough to integrate diverse forms of knowledge, as well as qualitative and quantitative information from, for example, the Bayesian belief network.

Protecting peatlands requires understanding stakeholder perceptions and relational values: A case study of peatlands in the Yorkshire Dales

Sustainable peatland management is a global environmental governance challenge given peat's carbon storage. Peatlands worldwide are sites of contested demands between stakeholders with distinct management priorities. In the United Kingdom, peatland management is a focus of political interest for nature-based solutions (NBS), causing tensions with land managers who feel their traditional knowledge is undervalued. Using Q-method (a semi-quantitative method for clarifying distinct viewpoints) with estate managers, gamekeepers, farmers, and employees of land-owning organisations, we explored perceptions around changing upland management in the Yorkshire Dales. Land managers hold strong values of ownership, aesthetics, and stewardship. The prospect of changing management causes fears of losing these relational values alongside instrumental values. Yorkshire Dales stakeholders agreed on NBS aims (reducing flooding, limiting wildfires, protecting wild birds), but disagreed on methods to achieve these. Our research supports engaging local stakeholders at all stages of peatland protection schemes to minimise resentment towards top-down management.

Restoring groundwater quality at the drinking water catchment scale: A multidisciplinary and participatory approach

Preserving or restoring the quality of groundwater resources with regard to nitrate is a major challenge. To date, useful and easily applicable tools to identify the best measures to implement at local scale are lacking. An innovative methodology is proposed to identify cost-effective restoration measures at the drinking water catchment scale. The methodology is based on the articulation of two tools: a model simulating nitrate groundwater contamination time series and an economic evaluation, within a participatory approach. It was applied to a representative drinking water catchment in Northwest France that has been affected by nitrate contamination for decades. Five scenarios of measures (changes in fertilization and intercropping practices, or in cropping patterns) were co-constructed with stakeholders, evaluated in terms of cost and impact on groundwater nitrate concentration, and discussed with stakeholders. Overall, two scenarios stand out. Introducing hemp in crop rotations is the only scenario generating an economic benefit, but for a very low impact on nitrate concentration (decrease of 4 mg/l by 2050 for 10% of hemp in crop rotations). Introducing alfalfa in crop rotations is the most effective measure to decrease nitrate concentration (decrease of 23 mg/l by 2050 for 20% of alfalfa in crop rotations), and for a moderate cost compared to the other scenarios (25-51 €/ha/year). Results show that substantial changes in cropping patterns - more important than those imagined initially by stakeholders (e.g. converting 40% of cropland to alfalfa) are needed to restore groundwater quality targets in the medium-long term. Measures deemed promising and achievable by the stakeholders proved to be insufficiently effective. The approach developed has been shown to provide valued and trusted information to stakeholders and to objectify debates. Stakeholders have shown interest in the evaluation of costs and further socio-economic information, in addition to the evaluation of the effectiveness of measures on groundwater quality, validating the multidisciplinary dimension of the approach. The approach has the advantage of being easy to implement, and is therefore applicable to other study sites where needed.

Integrated assessment of localized SSP-RCP narratives for climate change adaptation in coupled human-water systems

The assessment of climate change impacts requires downscaled climate projections and context-specific socioeconomic scenarios. The development of practical climate change adaptation for environmental sustainability at regional and local scales is predicated on a strong understanding of future socio-economic dynamics under a range of potential climate projections. We have addressed this need using integrated assessment of a localized hybrid Shared Socio-economic Pathway - Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) framework, through an interdisciplinary and participatory storyline development process that integrates bottom-up local expert-stakeholder knowledge with top-down insights from global SSPs. We use the global SSPs (SSP1 to SSP5) as boundary conditions in conjunction with climate change pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) to create localized SSP narratives in an iterative participatory process, using a storytelling method. By using an integrated socio-economic and environmental system dynamics model developed in collaboration with local stakeholders, we explore the potential impacts of plausible local SSP-RCP narratives and quantify important socio-environmental vulnerabilities of a human-water system (e.g., crop yields, farm income, water security and groundwater depletion) by the mid-century period (i.e., by 2050). The framework is developed to inform climate adaptation for Pakistan's Rechna Doab region, which serves as a representative case of a multi-stakeholder coupled human-water system operating in a developing country. Our results suggest that even under limited socio-economic improvements (e.g., technology, policies, institutions, environmental awareness) water security would be expected to decline and environmental degradation (e.g., groundwater depletion) to worsen. Under RCP 4.5, the average projected increase in water demand in 2030 will be about 7.32% for all SSP scenario narratives, and 10.82% by mid-century. Groundwater use varies significantly across SSPs which results in an average increase of about 29.06% for all SSPs. The proposed framework facilitates the development of future adaptation policies that should consider regional and local planning as well as socio-economic conditions.

Quantifying the Preference of Stakeholders in the Utilization of Forest Resources

The economic contribution of forest resources to the communities surrounding nature reserves cannot be ignored. The method for which to find a forest resource utilization path to balance the contradiction between local farmers’ economic development and ecological protection in the development of nature reserves is important. However, little attention has been given to the effect of forest resource users’ behavioral preferences on forest resource utilization. This study selected Wolong Nature Reserve as a case study and randomly interviewed different stakeholders with semi-structured questionnaires to investigate the differences in forest resource utilization patterns among stakeholders with different behavioral preferences. According to the results of multi-attribute decision analysis with behavioral preference, stakeholders form different behavioral preferences by judging their own resource endowment. With a change of in the behavioral preference value λ, when the behavioral preference of stakeholders is more pessimistic (λ = 0.1), cautious (λ = 0.3), or neutral (λ = 0.5), they are more inclined to choose the economically dominant forest resource utilization mode; when the behavioral preference of stakeholders is optimistic (λ = 0.7) or even radical (λ = 0.9), they choose the eco-economic or eco-dominant forest resource utilization mode, respectively. This study confirms that stakeholders’ behavioral preferences have an important impact on forest resource utilization patterns. Therefore, policy making should focus on improving the economic benefits of forest resources and providing alternative livelihoods, which will change the resource endowment of the stakeholders of nature reserve, guide them to turn to relatively optimistic behavioral preferences, enhance their awareness and motivation of ecological protection, and thereby improve forest conservation outcomes.

Envisioning the Future of Mosaic Landscapes: Actor Perceptions in a Mixed Cocoa/Oil-Palm Area in Ghana

The future and benefits of mosaic landscapes have been a source of scientific and societal concern due to increasing population growth, climate change, urbanization, and expanding agricultural commodities. There is a growing call for integrated landscape approaches in which landscape actors discuss trade-offs between different land uses with a view to reaching a negotiated decision on the allocation of land uses. Yet, the operationalization of such approaches is still in its infancy, and integrated methodologies to visualize actors' landscape visions are still scarce. This study therefore presents a participatory spatial scenario-building methodology that uncovers local perceptions of landscape dynamics and needed actions in a mixed cocoa-oil-palm landscape in Ghana's Eastern Region. The methodology visualizes landscape actors' perceived plausible changes and desired future landscapes, and is designed to trigger discussions on actions needed to achieve these desired futures. Findings show that farmers and institutional actors are aware of their landscapes with future preferences coming close to actual landscape composition and spatial configuration, and that-contrary to common assumptions-only those in the oil-palm-dominated landscape who already experienced the drawbacks of increasing landscape homogenization desire a mosaic landscape. The paper concludes that the collective mapping process makes actors aware of challenges at landscape level and increases farmers' negotiation power through active engagement in the process and visualization of their knowledge and visions. Application of the methodology requires dedicated funding, political will, and capacity to apply it as an ongoing process, as well as monitoring feedback loops.

Toward Inclusive Landscape Governance in Contested Landscapes: Exploring the Contribution of Participatory Tools in the Upper Suriname River Basin

Nowadays, tropical forest landscapes are commonly characterized by a multitude of interacting institutions and actors with competing land-use interests. In these settings, indigenous and tribal communities are often marginalized in landscape-level decision making. Inclusive landscape governance inherently integrates diverse knowledge systems, including those of indigenous and tribal communities. Increasingly, geo-information tools are recognized as appropriate tools to integrate diverse interests and legitimize the voices, values, and knowledge of indigenous and tribal communities in landscape governance. In this paper, we present the contribution of the integrated application of three participatory geo-information tools to inclusive landscape governance in the Upper Suriname River Basin in Suriname: (i) Participatory 3-Dimensional Modelling, (ii) the Trade-off! game, and (iii) participatory scenario planning. The participatory 3-dimensional modelling enabled easy participation of community members, documentation of traditional, tacit knowledge and social learning. The Trade-off! game stimulated capacity building and understanding of land-use trade-offs. The participatory scenario planning exercise helped landscape actors to reflect on their own and others' desired futures while building consensus. Our results emphasize the importance of systematically considering tool attributes and key factors, such as facilitation, for participatory geo-information tools to be optimally used and fit with local contexts. The results also show how combining the tools helped to build momentum and led to diverse yet complementary insights, thereby demonstrating the benefits of integrating multiple tools to address inclusive landscape governance issues.

Future land-use changes and its impacts on terrestrial ecosystem services: A review

Terrestrial ecosystem services (ES) are vulnerable to land use and land cover changes (LULCC). These changes are triggered by different drivers of change (e.g., economic, social, political, environmental - climate change). Understanding the potential future LULCC is an effective way to anticipate the impacts on ES supply. In recent years, some researchers applied different spatial modelling methods to assess the potential LULCC future impacts on ES supply, but so far, no systematic review was carried out. This work aims to do a bibliographic review about future LULCC and their implications on ES supply (provisioning, regulating, and cultural services). After a rigorous bibliographic review, we identified 957 papers. However, only 79 papers meet the criteria to be used in the review. The results showed that (i) the studies have been mainly focused on Asia (55.70%) and Europe (17,72%); (ii) the most common and extensively used models to project future LULCC were cellular automata (30.86%), CLUE-S model (8.64%) and Land Change Modeler (8.64%); and (iii) the most used methods to assess future impacts on ES were the InVEST model (24.04%), and equations used in previous works (12.5%). These studies were mainly focused on measuring future impacts on provisioning (44.11%) and regulating services (43.59%). Also, most of the works lack external validation. The diversity of studies evaluated allowed to recognise gaps and outline insights into the current scientific research on this scientific domain, representing an essential contribution to the current state of knowledge by supporting both practitioners and scientists.

Payment for environmental services for flood control analysis and method of economic viability

Disorganized urban growth, deforestation, and the occupation of floodplains and riverside areas significantly alter land-use patterns and social and environmental wellbeing. This work aims to present the analysis of the feasibility of the proposal for the implementation of a Payment for Environmental Services (PES) project for flood control. It is related to the recovery and conservation of areas of environmental interest in a hydrographic basin and considering the river channel as a reference and its buffer areas. For the implementation of a PES project aiming at the reduction of floods downstream through the recovery of riparian forests, including their subsequent maintenance, this work proposes a flowchart of the applicable steps, develops a formulation for the definition of payment for the service, and defines a set of measures necessary for its management. Through a case study, it was possible to simulate different scenarios for different recurrence time (RT) in the study area, and thus assess the damage caused by these different events. The innovation of this work comes from the use of PES for the control of floods, with the use of an integral formula to calculate the costs of PES and to evaluate the expected damages. The application of the Poisson distribution was used to estimate the losses for different RT events expected in 50 years, estimating the losses overtime for the scenario with the implementation of the PES project and without it. The damage when reduced or avoided becomes a useful resource for the establishment of other public policies.

Looking Through the COVID-19 Window of Opportunity: Future Scenarios Arising From the COVID-19 Pandemic Across Five Case Study Sites

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused (and continues to cause) severe disruption in global and local economies and has forced countries, societies, and individuals to adapt quickly to the unprecedented and unpredictable situations. Despite the obvious negative consequences of the pandemic, many have called for efforts to identify transformative opportunities for sustainable development throughout this disorderly time. In the present paper, we explore such potential opportunities in the context of an interdisciplinary, international research project, which is focusing on sustainable marine management in biosphere reserves and marine parks in Southeast Asia. During a virtual workshop conducted as part of the GCRF (Government's Global Challenges Research Fund) Blue Communities Project, future scenarios were developed depicting the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on five case study sites. All of these sites are in areas of internationally recognized outstanding ecological value (Taka Bonerate Kepulauan-Selayar Biosphere Reserve, Indonesia; Tun Mustapha Park, Sabah, Malaysia; Palawan Biosphere Reserve, Philippines; North Devon Biosphere Reserve, United Kingdom; Cu Lao Cham-Hoi An Biosphere Reserve, Vietnam). At the macro-level, economies, governance structures, and societal norms are undergoing big changes. At the micro-level, the livelihoods, lifestyles, and backyards of local residents have to adapt. Collaboratively, we explored how COVID-19 posed challenges in our five case study sites, but we also focused on the potential COVID-19-related windows of opportunity for future sustainable development. Opportunities could be identified in all three pillars of sustainable development: the environment, the society, and the economy. Although remarkable similarities can be found across all five sites, we conclude that there cannot be a "one-size-fits-all" solution to turn the tide toward achieving sustainable development. Just as before the pandemic, sustainable development starts with engaging with and understanding local environments, challenges, and situations; building on local knowledge; and developing tailor-made solutions for the communities in situ.

Game of Cruxes: co-designing a game for scientists and stakeholders for identifying joint problems

Scientists increasingly cross their disciplinary boundaries and connect with local stakeholders to jointly solve complex problems. Working with stakeholders means higher legitimacy and supports practical impact of research. Games provide a tool to achieve such transdisciplinary collaboration. In this paper, we explore the use of a game in a participatory project where scientists and local stakeholders are seeking and defining a joint problem. The literature is clear that this step is essential but remains short on concrete methods. Here, we explore this potential in practice. We conducted parallel participatory processes in two alpine regions considered as socio-ecological system (SES) in Switzerland and France, both vulnerable to global change. Based on these two case studies, we co-constructed a game, integrating scientific concerns about key land use, climate change and socio-economic elements of a mountain SES (tourism, agriculture, housing and demography). With the game, we assessed the existence of joint problems connecting scientific and local interests. The game successfully engaged participants at both sites over 11 game sessions, showing potential of use in other transdisciplinary settings. By covering a wide array of issues, the game created a discussion space for listing problems and identifying where scientist and stakeholder interests overlap. In Switzerland, the game revealed no pressing joint problem to be addressed. In France, game sessions revealed, among other problems, an enduring and complex issue regarding the co-existence of inhabitants and powerful institutions. Having demonstrated the capacity of this game for joint-problem assessment, we believe other participatory research in similar SES could benefit from an early use of such an approach to frame the potential for collaboration.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-021-00983-2.

Following the ice: adaptation processes of glacier tour operators in Southeast Iceland

The growing recognition that global climatic change is a pressing reality and that its impacts on humans and ecological systems are inevitable makes adaptation a core topic in climate change research and policymaking. The glacier tourism sector that is highly sensitive towards changing climatic conditions is among the most relevant in this respect. This study aims to examine empirically how adaptation to climate change impacts is practiced by small- and middle-scale glacier tour operators. Data was collected by means of a set of semi-structured interviews with the managers or owners of nine small- or middle-scale tour companies operating in the Vatnajökull National Park in Southeast Iceland and observations of glacier sites where the respondents' companies are operating. The results indicate that all entrepreneurs consider climate change to be a real phenomenon that affects their present daily operations, but they perceive these implications not as significant threats to their business. The interaction of operator's attributes of agency such as firsthand experiences, risk perceptions, and abilities to self-organize, with structural elements of the glacier destination system such as economic rationales and hazard reduction institutions, has shaped and consolidated operators' adaptation processes in the form of a wait-and-see strategy combined with ad hoc reactive adaptation measures and postponed or prevented proactive long-term adaptation strategies.

Developing a Conceptual Model for Sustainable water Resource Management and Agricultural Development: the Case of the Breede River Catchment Area, South Africa

The complex relationship that exists between water resources and agricultural production has been increasing constantly globally. Several factors are interacting to influence the management of water resources making the system complex and dynamic. To increase the understanding of these complex and dynamic systems, relevant tools are needed to identify the causal relationships that exist between the drivers and their influences on the system. Participatory modelling based on the system dynamics approach provides a simplistic and visualisation tool that can improve the understanding of the functioning of a complex and dynamic system. A multi-stage participatory approach was used in this study involving relevant stakeholders in the development of an integrated conceptual system dynamic model using causal loop diagrams. This approach was used because it captures the thought process and mental model of relevant stakeholders in the development of the model, making it a valuable tool for policy and decision making at government and individual levels. The integrated model built in this study used causal loop diagrams to address problems of water management and agricultural sustainability in the Breede River Catchment. The model shows major causal-relationships and feedback loops that determine the functioning of the overall system. The model demonstrates the usefulness of the participatory approach in solving problems related to water management and agricultural development in the catchment.

Localizing the Water-Energy Nexus: The Relationship between Solar Thermal Power Plants and Future Developments in Local Water Demand

Water availability plays an important role in the expansion planning of utility-scale solar power plants, especially in the arid regions of the Middle East and North Africa. Although these power plants usually account for only a small fraction of local water demand, competition for water resources between communities, farmers, companies, and power suppliers is already emerging and is likely to intensify in future. Despite this, to date there has been a lack of comprehensive studies analyzing interdependencies and potential conflicts between energy and water at local level. This study addresses this research gap and examines the linkages between water resources and energy technologies at local level based on a case study conducted in Ouarzazate, Morocco, where one of the largest solar power complexes in the world was recently completed. To better understand the challenges faced by the region in light of increased water demand and diminishing water supply, a mixed-method research design was applied to integrate the knowledge of local stakeholders through a series of workshops. In a first step, regional socio-economic water demand scenarios were developed and, in a second step, water saving measures to avoid critical development pathways were systematically evaluated using a participatory multi-criteria evaluation approach. The results are a set of water demand scenarios for the region and a preferential ranking of water saving measures that could be drawn upon to support decision-making relating to energy and water development in the region.

Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs

Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios - the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) - providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes.

Integrating ecosystem services value and uncertainty into regional ecological risk assessment: A case study of Hubei Province, Central China

In the context of rapid urbanization, ecosystem services (ES) losses pose serious threats to sustainability. How to assess ecological risk based on ES value (ESV) has become an urgent problem for sustainable urbanization. However, existing regional ecological risk assessment frameworks ignore important elements, such as the assessment endpoint and uncertainty, weakening their reliability and practicability. In this study, a regional ecological risk assessment framework integrating ESV and uncertainty was proposed by introducing a classical financial indicator, the Sharpe Ratio. We take Hubei Province, Central China as a case and implemented the spatially explicit risk assessment approach based on the methods of the Markov-logistic-CA model, adjusted-based equivalent factor evaluation model, and geographic information system. The results showed that the distribution of expected ecological returns and corresponding uncertainties at county level had a remarkable spatial heterogeneity, and the assessed ecological risk index in Eastern and Western Hubei was higher than that in Central Hubei, indicating that counties in Central Hubei are the priority areas for ecological risk control. Moreover, the expansion of built-up land had the most significant effect on regional ecological risk. This regional ecological risk framework can well integrate the assessment endpoint and dynamic processes of ecological risk. Our assessment framework has potential practical value for ecological risk control and land use planning on ecosystems.

Power, perspective, and privilege: The challenge of translating stakeholder theory from business management to environmental and natural resource management

Stakeholder analysis and engagement is a central tenet for understanding and solving sustainability challenges, and is applied widely in environmental and natural resource management (ENRM). The practice in ENRM follows translation of stakeholder theory from its origins in business management to the sustainability sector. In this analytical essay we explore key concepts in ENRM research and practice to examine complexities that have accompanied this translation to ENRM. In particular, we consider the centrality of stakeholders' landscape perspectives in defining their stake in ENRM issues, and through this lens examine the limitations that are inherent in the classic 'hub-and-spoke' model of stakeholder analysis that is the theoretical underpinning for ENRM stakeholder analysis and engagement practice. We argue that unlike the traditional business context where both power and perspective are centred on the business entity that then defines other stakeholders in reference to itself, in ENRM, stakeholder relations are centred on an ENRM issue, typically a landscape or the implications of policy change on a landscape. As a consequence, decision-making power is decentred onto one of several stakeholders; often a government or other high power entity, implicitly conferring privilege to those powerful stakeholders' landscape perspectives over those held by low power stakeholders. We conclude with priorities for foregrounding power and explicating landscape perspectives to identify privilege in ENRM. We direct these insights especially to those ENRM actors who have the dual roles of adjudicator and privileged stakeholder such that they do not inadvertently perpetuate power imbalances through the privilege of aligning their decision-making power with their landscape perspectives.

Environmental Scenario Analysis on Natural and Social-Ecological Systems: A Review of Methods, Approaches and Applications

Scenario analysis is a useful tool to facilitate discussions about the main trends of future change and to promote the understanding of global environmental changes implications on relevant aspects of sustainability. In this paper, we reviewed 294 articles published between 1995–2019, to evaluate the state of the art use of models and scenarios to investigate the effects of land use change and climate change on natural and social-ecological systems. Our review focuses on three issues. The first explores the extent to which the environmental dynamics of land use and climate change were jointly analyzed and the spatial scales associated with such integrated studies. The second explores the modelling methodologies and approaches used in the scenario analysis. The third explores the methods for developing or building scenarios. Results show that in most predictions there is little integration of key drivers of change. We find most forecasting studies use a sectoral modelling approach through dynamic spatially distributed models. Most articles do not apply a participatory approach in the development of scenarios. Based on this review, we conclude that there are some gaps in how scenario analysis on natural and social-ecological systems are conducted. These gaps pose a challenge for the use of models and scenarios as predictive tools in decision-making processes in the context of global change.

How methodological frameworks are being developed: evidence from a scoping review

Background

Although the benefits of using methodological frameworks are increasingly recognised, to date, there is no formal definition of what constitutes a ‘methodological framework’, nor is there any published guidance on how to develop one. For the purposes of this study we have defined a methodological framework as a structured guide to completing a process or procedure. This study’s aims are to: (a) map the existing landscape on the use of methodological frameworks; (b) identify approaches used for the development of methodological frameworks and terminology used; and (c) provide suggestions for developing future methodological frameworks. We took a broad view and did not limit our study to methodological frameworks in research and academia.

Methods

A scoping review was conducted, drawing on Arksey and O’Malley’s methods and more recent guidance. We systematically searched two major electronic databases (MEDLINE and Web of Science), as well as grey literature sources and the reference lists and citations of all relevant papers. Study characteristics and approaches used for development of methodological frameworks were extracted from included studies. Descriptive analysis was conducted.

Results

We included a total of 30 studies, representing a wide range of subject areas. The most commonly reported approach for developing a methodological framework was ‘Based on existing methods and guidelines’ (66.7%), followed by ‘Refined and validated’ (33.3%), ‘Experience and expertise’ (30.0%), ‘Literature review’ (26.7%), ‘Data synthesis and amalgamation’ (23.3%), ‘Data extraction’ (10.0%), ‘Iteratively developed’ (6.7%) and ‘Lab work results’ (3.3%). There was no consistent use of terminology; diverse terms for methodological framework were used across and, interchangeably, within studies.

Conclusions

Although no formal guidance exists on how to develop a methodological framework, this scoping review found an overall consensus in approaches used, which can be broadly divided into three phases: (a) identifying data to inform the methodological framework; (b) developing the methodological framework; and (c) validating, testing and refining the methodological framework. Based on these phases, we provide suggestions to facilitate the development of future methodological frameworks.

Citizen-Participatory Scenario Design Methodology with Future Design Approach: A Case Study of Visioning of a Low-Carbon Society in Suita City, Japan

A scenario approach is often used to envision sustainable futures. Several important scenario design factors are identified in the literature, which include the demonstration of deliberation and the participation of stakeholders; however, specific methodologies of scenario design are yet to be established. Accordingly, in this study, we demonstrate a series of workshops involving ordinary citizens for energy visioning in Suita city, Japan, and propose a new citizen-participatory scenario design methodology based on the combination of scenario design and future design approaches. It is shown that the inclusion of future generations in deliberation is effective for creating future visions in a specific context and deriving policy implications. Specifically, by analyzing the deliberation process and the proposed scenarios, it was confirmed that the scenarios proposed by future generations were proactive in terms of paying the costs incurred to facilitate the realization of policies toward achieving a long-term vision. Furthermore, even though the proposals made by the future generations imposed additional burdens for current generations, post-workshop scenario assessment revealed that current generations are supportive of these scenarios. It is concluded that the proposed methodology is effective since it can overcome uncertainties, include holistic scopes, and consider a long-term time horizon.

A card game to renew urban parks: Face-to-face and online approach for the inclusive involvement of local community

Urban parks are often designed and renewed using standardized models that fail to incorporate the different functions and services required by the local communities served. Furthermore, when the citizens are involved in co-design, the participation processes are seldom fully inclusive, and the results are not representative of the entire local community. The paper starts from these considerations for developing an innovative participatory design method to renew urban parks. This method simultaneously uses multiple and alternative participation tools for adapting to the different technical skills of the citizens and to their inclinations. Furthermore, it entails the analysis and interpretation of the expectations of the local community in light of the urban green network. The method uses the conceptual framework of the SWOT analysis and the Trochim's concept mapping for developing a card game playable face to face or online. The results of the card game are processed using the statistical analysis to identify the main design themes (the clusters), and to split the participants' suggestions into different design alternatives. Successively, the participants vote these alternatives for selecting the renewal design respondent to the local community's needs.

The Complex Pathway towards Farm-Level Sustainable Intensification: An Exploratory Network Analysis of Stakeholders’ Knowledge and Perception

Farm-level sustainable intensification of agriculture (SIA) has become an important concept to ensuring food security while minimising negative externalities. However, progress towards its achievement is often constrained by the different perceptions and goals of various stakeholders that affect farm management decisions. This study examines farm-level SIA as a dynamic system with interactive components that are determined by the interests of the stakeholders involved. A systems thinking approach was used to identify and describe the pathways towards farm-level SIA across the three main pillars of sustainability. An explanatory network analysis of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) that were collectively created by representative groups of farmers, farm advisors and policy makers was performed. The study shows that SIA is a complex dynamic system, affected by cognitive beliefs and particular knowledge within stakeholder groups. The study concludes that, although farm-level SIA is a complex process, common goals can be identified in collective decision making.

A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture

Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture - Eur-Agri-SSPs - to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS.

Pursuing implementation solutions for targeted nitrogen management in agriculture- a novel approach to synthesize knowledge and facilitate sustainable decision making based on collaborative landscape modelling

Regulation of nitrate emission from agriculture to aquatic environments in Denmark currently depend on general rules for nutrient application and associated farm-level reporting schemes. Similar or comparable centralized regulation instruments dedicated to controlling and limiting rather than focusing and improving N application practices exist in large parts of the OECD. Recent policy debates have exposed an array of problems relating to this type of regulation. Problems include issues of appropriate scale, transparency and failures to adapt intervention and regulation to relevant geo-ecological variations in contexts where general rules are being imposed on varied agro-ecosystems. Therefore it has been proposed to rescale regulation to better fit relevant socio-political and agro-environmental processes including the scale of farmers' decision making, the scale of relevant hydrological systems and the scale of key agro-ecological conditions such as soil characteristics and drainage. However, the challenge of shifting the regulation to a more local scale raises a number of questions. These include (1) How information produced locally can be integrated with national scale data? (2) In what way integrated datasets can used to model environmental effects of current and possible land use patterns? (3) In what way data and estimates of consequences of land use changes are best made available in decision making processes? To address these questions this article reports on ongoing work in Denmark to develop a decision support tool for N-management at the scale of agricultural landscapes, which are areas where a similar pattern of land use is repeated across the land surface, reflecting a specific mode of adapting agriculture to natural conditions. The aim of the article is to evaluate the design of a decision support tool aiming at enabling strategic N-management at landscape scales by linking decision support at the scale of individual farms with decision support targeted at groups of farms where a coordinated effort to solve common problems may be more efficient. Design targets for the tool were established empirically based on evidence from exploratory workshops with farmers and other stakeholders in 6 case areas across Denmark. On this basis a prototype GIS-tool for capturing, storing, editing, displaying and modelling landscape scale farming practices and associated emission consequences was developed. The tool was designed to integrate locally held knowledge with national scale datasets in live scenario situations through the implementation of a flexible, uniform and editable data model for land use data - the dNmark landscape model. Based on input data that is corrected and co-authored by workshop participants, the tool estimates the effect of potential land use scenarios on nutrient emissions. The tool was tested in 5 scenario workshops in case areas in Denmark in 2016, on the basis of which its design is evaluated and discussed in this article.

Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience

Background

Health inequalities have been consistently reported across and within European countries and continue to pose major challenges to policy-making. The development of scenarios regarding what could affect population health (PH) inequalities across Europe in the future is considered critical. Scenarios can help policy-makers prepare and better cope with fast evolving challenges.

Objective

This paper describes the three 2030 time-horizon scenarios developed under the EURO-HEALTHY project, depicting the key factors that may affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions.

Methods

A three-stage socio-technical approach was applied: i) identification of drivers (key factors expected to affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions until 2030) – this stage engaged in a Web-Delphi process a multidisciplinary panel of 51 experts and other stakeholders representing the different perspectives regarding PH inequalities; ii) generation of scenario structures – different drivers’ configurations (i.e. their hypotheses for evolution) were organized into coherent scenario structures using the Extreme-World Method; and iii) validation of scenario structures and generation of scenario narratives. Stages ii) and iii) were conducted in two workshops with a strategic group of 13 experts with a wide view about PH inequalities. The scenario narratives were elaborated with the participants’ insights from both the Web-Delphi process and the two workshops, together with the use of evidence (both current and future-oriented) on the different areas within the PH domain.

Results

Three scenarios were developed for the evolution of PH inequalities in Europe until 2030: ‘Failing Europe’ (worst-case but plausible picture of the future), ‘Sustainable Prosperity’ (best-case but plausible picture of the future), and an interim scenario ‘Being Stuck’ depicting a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ evolution. These scenarios show the extent to which a combination of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental drivers shape future health inequalities, providing information for European policy-makers to reflect upon whether and how to design robust policy solutions to tackle PH inequalities.

Conclusions

The EURO-HEALTHY scenarios were designed to inform both policy design and appraisal. They broaden the scope, create awareness and generate insights regarding the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions.

Storylines of combined future land use and climate scenarios and their hydrological impacts in an Alpine catchment (Brixental/Austria)

In this paper, the hydrological impacts of future socio-economic and climatic development are assessed for a regional-scale Alpine catchment (Brixental, Tyrol, Austria). Therefore, coupled storylines of future land use and climate scenarios were developed in a transdisciplinary stakeholder process by means of questionnaire analyses and interviews with local experts from various relevant societal sectors. Resulting future land use maps for each decade were used as spatial input in the hydrological model WaSiM, to which a new module for the consideration of snow-canopy interaction processes has been added. Simulation results for three developed storylines, each combined with a moderate (A1B) and an extreme (RCP8.5) climate future, show that in a warmer and dryer climate the amount of annual simulated streamflow at the gauge of the catchment undergoes a significant reduction. The (mainly natural) reforestation of the catchment - caused by abandonment of previously cultivated areas - leads to additional losses of water by enhanced interception and evapotranspiration processes. Further cultivation of the current mountain pasture areas has a certain potential to attenuate undesirable long-term impacts of climate change on the catchment water balance.

Setting up crowd science projects

Crowd science is scientific research that is conducted with the participation of volunteers who are not professional scientists. Thanks to the Internet and online platforms, project initiators can draw on a potentially large number of volunteers. This crowd can be involved to support data-rich or labour-intensive projects that would otherwise be unfeasible. So far, research on crowd science has mainly focused on analysing individual crowd science projects. In our research, we focus on the perspective of project initiators and explore how crowd science projects are set up. Based on multiple case study research, we discuss the objectives of crowd science projects and the strategies of their initiators for accessing volunteers. We also categorise the tasks allocated to volunteers and reflect on the issue of quality assurance as well as feedback mechanisms. With this article, we contribute to a better understanding of how crowd science projects are set up and how volunteers can contribute to science. We suggest that our findings are of practical relevance for initiators of crowd science projects, for science communication as well as for informed science policy making.

Using the scenario method in the context of health and health care--a scoping review

Background

The scenario technique is a method for future research and for strategic planning. Today, it includes both qualitative and quantitative elements. The aims of this scoping review are to give an overview of the application of the scenario method in the fields of health care and to make suggestions for better reporting in future scenario projects.

Methods

Between January 2013 and October 2013 we conducted a systematic search in the databases Medline, Embase, PsycInfo, Eric, The Cochrane Library, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cinahl since inception for the term ‘scenario(s)’ in combination with other terms, e.g. method, model, and technique. Our search was not restricted by date or language. In addition, we screened the reference lists of the included articles.

Results

A total of 576 bibliographical records were screened. After removing duplicates and three rounds of screening, 41 articles covering 38 different scenario projects were included for the final analysis. Nine of the included articles addressed disease related issues, led by mental health and dementia (n = 4), and followed by cancer (n = 3). Five scenario projects focused on public health issues at an organizational level and five focused on the labor market for different health care professionals. In addition, four projects dealt with health care ‘in general’, four with the field of biotechnology and personalized medicine, and additional four with other technology developments. Some of the scenario projects suffered from poor reporting of methodological aspects.

Conclusions

Despite its potential, use of the scenario method seems to be published rarely in comparison to other methods such as the Delphi-technique, at least in the field of health care. This might be due to the complexity of the methodological approach. Individual project methods and activities vary widely and are poorly reported. Improved criteria are required for reporting of scenario project methods. With improved standards and greater transparency, the scenario method will be a good tool for scientific health care planning and strategic decision-making in public health.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12874-015-0083-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Regional engagement and spatial modelling for natural resource management planning

Changing unsustainable natural resource use in agricultural landscapes is a complex social-ecological challenge that cannot be addressed through traditional reductionist science. More holistic and inclusive (or transdisciplinary) processes are needed. This paper describes a transdisciplinary project for natural resource management planning in two regions (Eyre Peninsula and South Australian Murray-Darling Basin) of southern Australia. With regional staff, we reviewed previous planning to gain an understanding of the processes used and to identify possible improvement in plan development and its operation. We then used an envisioning process to develop a value-rich narrative of regional aspirations to assist stakeholder engagement and inform the development of a land use management option assessment tool called the landscape futures analysis tool (LFAT). Finally, we undertook an assessment of the effectiveness of the process through semi-structured stakeholder interviews. The planning process review highlighted the opinion that the regional plans were not well informed by available science, that they lacked flexibility, and were only intermittently used after publication. The envisioning process identified shared values-generally described as a trust, language that is easily understood, wise use of resources, collaboration and inclusiveness. LFAT was designed to bring the best available science together in a form that would have use in planning, during community consultation and in assessing regional management operations. The LFAT provided spatially detailed but simple models of agricultural yields and incomes, plant biodiversity, weed distribution, and carbon sequestration associated with future combinations of climate, commodity and carbon prices, and costs of production. Stakeholders were impressed by the presentation and demonstration results of the software. While there was anecdotal evidence that the project provided learning opportunities and increased understanding of potential land use change associated with management options under global change, the direct evidence of influence in the updated regional plan was limited. This project had elements required for success in transdisciplinary research, but penetration seems limited. Contributing factors appear to be a complexity of climate effects with economic uncertainty, lack of having the project embedded in the plan revision process, limited continuity and capacity of end users and limited after project support and promotion. Strategies are required to minimise the controlling influence that these limitations can have.

From framework to action: the DESIRE approach to combat desertification

It has become increasingly clear that desertification can only be tackled through a multi-disciplinary approach that not only involves scientists but also stakeholders. In the DESIRE project such an approach was taken. As a first step, a conceptual framework was developed in which the factors and processes that may lead to land degradation and desertification were described. Many of these factors do not work independently, but can reinforce or weaken one another, and to illustrate these relationships sustainable management and policy feedback loops were included. This conceptual framework can be applied globally, but can also be made site-specific to take into account that each study site has a unique combination of bio-physical, socio-economic and political conditions. Once the conceptual framework was defined, a methodological framework was developed in which the methodological steps taken in the DESIRE approach were listed and their logic and sequence were explained. The last step was to develop a concrete working plan to put the project into action, involving stakeholders throughout the process. This series of steps, in full or in part, offers explicit guidance for other organizations or projects that aim to reduce land degradation and desertification.