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Gujral H, Franklin M, Easterbrook S. Emerging evidence for the impact of Electric Vehicle sales on childhood asthma: Can ZEV mandates help? ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2025; 270:120845. [PMID: 39884530 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2025.120845] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2024] [Revised: 11/30/2024] [Accepted: 01/12/2025] [Indexed: 02/01/2025]
Abstract
Growing epidemiological studies indicate a significant fraction of asthma cases can be attributed to traffic-related air pollution (TRAP). Zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates - one of the most forward-looking climate policies in the United States - aim to reduce TRAP by mandating automakers to sell a certain fraction of Electric Vehicles (EVs) annually; however, their public health benefits are largely unknown. We conduct the screening step of the health impact assessment (HIA) of real-world EV sales to estimate the impact of ZEV mandates in reducing childhood asthma. Using publicly available US state and national datasets, we isolate the burden of childhood asthma attributable to TRAP from 2013 to 2019 and examine the influence of EV and non-EV vehicle sales and fleets on asthma incidence and prevalence using a generalized linear mixed model. Our analyses indicate that new EV sales have reduced asthma, with one asthma case prevented for every 264 (95% CI: 113-401) new EVs on the road. The rise of new childhood asthma cases from new car sales can be prevented when non-EV sales are replaced with EV sales at an annual market share of 21.4% (7.1-41.6%). Extending our analysis to the entire vehicle fleet, we project that when EVs reach 53.0% (35.5%-76.9%), childhood asthma due to tailpipe emissions can be eradicated completely. Screening results conclude that ZEV mandates implemented over the past decade are already exhibiting measurable public health benefits, suggesting that a broader adoption could significantly reduce the asthma burden, thus we recommend a full HIA for ZEV mandates to fully assess their potential.
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Affiliation(s)
- Harshit Gujral
- Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; School of the Environment, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Meredith Franklin
- Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; School of the Environment, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Steve Easterbrook
- Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; School of the Environment, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
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Hu X, Zhang X, Jiang M. Subsidy implementation patterns and electric vehicle adoption. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2025; 373:123885. [PMID: 39752964 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123885] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2023] [Revised: 12/10/2024] [Accepted: 12/24/2024] [Indexed: 01/15/2025]
Abstract
Many local governments provide subsidies to promote electric vehicles (EVs). These subsidies are characterised by different implementation patterns: they are provided by different levels of government, sometimes jointly financed, or retroactively implemented. However, the potential impacts of different subsidy implementation patterns on EV adoption remain unclear. In this study, we analyse the impact of local subsidy implementation patterns on EV adoption. We first propose an analytical model and then verify it empirically using monthly panel data on EV adoption in 132 Chinese cities. We find that municipal subsidies are more effective than both provincial and jointly financed subsidies in promoting EV adoption. Each 10% increase in municipal subsidies (as a share of national subsidies) can promote approximately 1000 more EVs than corresponding provincial subsidies and approximately 965 more EVs than jointly financed subsidies. Retroactive subsidies do not significantly hinder local EV adoption. Our research provides valuable empirical evidence for policymakers to steer toward more synergistic EV adoption policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoming Hu
- School of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China; Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing, Beijing, 100081, China
| | - Xiang Zhang
- School of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China; Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing, Beijing, 100081, China.
| | - Mengfei Jiang
- Business School, University of Edinburgh, 29 Buccleuch Place, EH8 9JS, Edinburgh, UK.
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Prakhar P, Jaiswal R, Gupta S, Tiwari AK. Electric vehicles in transition: Opportunities, challenges, and research agenda - A systematic literature review. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 372:123415. [PMID: 39581008 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123415] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2024] [Revised: 10/30/2024] [Accepted: 11/17/2024] [Indexed: 11/26/2024]
Abstract
This study conducts a systematic literature review on electric vehicle (EV) adoption, mapping critical themes and presenting an integrated framework to advance understanding of EVs' role in sustainable transportation. Drawing on 917 Scopus-indexed articles and 23 stakeholder interviews, it explores economic, environmental, energy, and social (EEES) dynamics through the Theory-Context-Methodology (TCM) framework and causal loop diagrams. Findings reveal dominant theories, such as the Theory of Planned Behavior and Value-Belief Norm Theory, and underscore the importance of methodological approaches like regression analysis and structural equation modeling. Key research themes include adoption intention, green infrastructure, and sustainable transport policy, all aligning with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 7 (Clean Energy), 11 (Sustainable Cities), and 13 (Climate Action). By constructing a causal loop diagram, this study illustrates complex interrelations among EEES factors, highlighting the reinforcing and balancing influences on EV adoption behavior. The proposed integrated framework provides a roadmap for future research, identifying significant gaps and strategic directions for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers. Practical implications include guidelines to foster EV integration into smart cities, addressing infrastructure and environmental challenges while encouraging policy incentives to enhance public adoption. The study's theoretical implications include the expansion of existing behavioral theories, the development of an integrated theoretical framework that combines TCM and CLDs, the introduction of CLDs as a tool for complex systems analysis, and the identification of thematic clusters within EV adoption research. This review supports informed decision-making for sustainable urban mobility, positioning EVs as transformative in the global shift toward eco-friendly transportation solutions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Prakhar Prakhar
- Department of Business Management, HNB Garhwal (A Central) University, Srinagar, Uttarakhand, India.
| | - Rachana Jaiswal
- Department of Business Management, HNB Garhwal (A Central) University, Srinagar, Uttarakhand, India.
| | - Shashank Gupta
- Cyber Data Risk & Resilience, Morgan Stanley Advantage Services Private Limited, Commerz III, International Business Park, Oberoi Garden City, Off Western Express Highway, Goregaon (East), Mumbai, India.
| | - Aviral Kumar Tiwari
- Department of Economics, Indian Institute of Management Bodh Gaya (IIM Bodh Gaya), Bodh Gaya, India.
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Hu B, Zhang J. The impact of hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks purchase subsidies on air quality. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2024; 31:49481-49497. [PMID: 39078550 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-024-34480-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2024] [Accepted: 07/21/2024] [Indexed: 07/31/2024]
Abstract
The pollutant emissions of diesel-powered heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) seriously damage the air quality. The promotion of hydrogen fuel cell HDTs through purchase subsidy policy to reduce emissions has become an important approach to control air pollution. This study focuses on the impact of hydrogen fuel cell HDT purchase subsidies on air quality in the context of China, covering the panel data of 31 Chinese cities from 2014 to 2021 and applying a two-way fixed effects model to analyze the contribution of purchase subsidies and hydrogen refueling station construction subsidies to air quality. Results show that (1) the increase in purchase subsidies could improve the air quality by around 6.1% and there is a lag effect. (2) Purchase subsidies make a larger contribution to air quality compared with construction subsidies. (3) Purchase subsidies can improve air quality by reducing carbon emissions in transport industry. In sight of these results, policy makers should emphasize the implementation of purchase subsidies and hydrogen refueling station construction subsidies and stimulate manufacturers to improve the performance of hydrogen fuel cell so as to contribute more to the environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bo Hu
- School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum East China, Qingdao, 266580, China
| | - Jinghan Zhang
- School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum East China, Qingdao, 266580, China.
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Pennington AF, Cornwell CR, Sircar KD, Mirabelli MC. Electric vehicles and health: A scoping review. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 251:118697. [PMID: 38499224 PMCID: PMC11273362 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.118697] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2023] [Revised: 02/12/2024] [Accepted: 03/11/2024] [Indexed: 03/20/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The health impacts of the rapid transition to the use of electric vehicles are largely unexplored. We completed a scoping review to assess the state of the evidence on use of battery electric and hybrid electric vehicles and health. METHODS We conducted a literature search of MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, CINAHL, Scopus, and Environmental Science Collection databases for articles published January 1990 to January 2024. We included articles if they presented observed or modeled data on the association between battery electric or hybrid electric cars, trucks, or buses and health-related outcomes. We abstracted data and summarized results. RESULTS Out of 897 reviewed articles, 52 met our inclusion criteria. The majority of included articles examined transitions to the use of electric vehicles (n = 49, 94%), with fewer studies examining hybrid electric vehicles (n = 11, 21%) or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (n = 8, 15%). The most common outcomes examined were premature death (n = 41, 79%) and monetized health outcomes such as medical expenditures (n = 33, 63%). We identified only one observational study on the impact of electric vehicles on health; all other studies reported modeled data. Almost every study (n = 51, 98%) reported some evidence of a positive health impact of transitioning to electric or hybrid electric vehicles, although magnitudes of association varied. There was a paucity of information on the environmental justice implications of vehicle transitions. CONCLUSIONS The results of the current literature on electric vehicles and health suggest an overall positive health impact of transitioning to electric vehicles. Additional observational studies would help expand our understanding of the real-world health effects of electric vehicles. Future research focused on the environmental justice implications of vehicle fleet transitions could provide additional information about the extent to which the health benefits occur equitably across populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Audrey F Pennington
- Division of Environmental Health Science and Practice, National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
| | - Cheryl R Cornwell
- Division of Environmental Health Science and Practice, National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Kanta Devi Sircar
- Division of Environmental Health Science and Practice, National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA; Commissioned Corps, United States Public Health Service, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Maria C Mirabelli
- Division of Environmental Health Science and Practice, National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
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Garcia E, Johnston J, McConnell R, Palinkas L, Eckel SP. California's early transition to electric vehicles: Observed health and air quality co-benefits. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 867:161761. [PMID: 36739036 PMCID: PMC10465173 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161761] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2022] [Revised: 01/06/2023] [Accepted: 01/18/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
The transition to electric vehicles is projected to have considerable public health co-benefits, but most evidence regarding air quality and health impacts comes from projections rather than real-world data. We evaluated whether population-level respiratory health and air quality co-benefits were already detectable at the relatively low levels of zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs: battery electric, plug-in hybrid, hydrogen fuel cell vehicle) adoption in California, and evaluated the ZEV adoption gap in underserved communities. We conducted a zip code-level ecologic study relating changes in annual number of ZEVs (nZEV) per 1000 population from 2013 to 2019 to: (i) annual average monitored nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations and (ii) annual age-adjusted asthma-related emergency department (ED) visit rates, while considering educational attainment. The average nZEV increased from 1.4 per 1000 population in 2013 (standard deviation [SD]: 2.1) to 14.7 per 1000 in 2019 (SD: 14.7). ZEV adoption was considerably slower in zip codes with lower educational attainment (p < 0.0001). A within-zip code increase of 20 ZEVs per 1000 was associated with a - 0.41 ppb change in annual average NO2 (95 % confidence interval [CI]:-1.12, 0.29) in an adjusted model. A within-zip code increase of 20 ZEVs per 1000 population was associated with a 3.2 % decrease in annual age-adjusted rate of asthma-related ED visits (95 % CI:-5.4, -0.9). Findings were supported by a variety of sensitivity analyses. Observational data on the early phase ZEV transition in California provided a natural experiment, enabling us to document the first real-world associations between increasing nZEV and changes in air quality and health. Results suggest co-benefits of the early-phase transition to ZEVs but with an adoption gap among populations with lower socioeconomic status which threatens the equitable distribution of possible co-benefits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erika Garcia
- University of Southern California, Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Los Angeles, California, United States.
| | - Jill Johnston
- University of Southern California, Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Los Angeles, California, United States
| | - Rob McConnell
- University of Southern California, Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Los Angeles, California, United States
| | - Lawrence Palinkas
- University of Southern California, Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Los Angeles, California, United States; University of Southern California, Suzanne Dworak Peck School of Social Work, Los Angeles, California, United States
| | - Sandrah P Eckel
- University of Southern California, Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Los Angeles, California, United States
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Urrutia-Mosquera JA, Flórez-Calderón LÁ. Impact of Confinement on the Reduction of Pollution and Particulate Matter Concentrations. Reflections for Public Transport Policies. ENVIRONMENTAL PROCESSES 2023; 10:2. [PMCID: PMC9758684 DOI: 10.1007/s40710-022-00611-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2022] [Accepted: 11/11/2022] [Indexed: 08/12/2023]
Abstract
Different initiatives have been implemented to improve air quality in large cities, such as encouraging travel by sustainable modes of transport, promoting electro-mobility, or the car-free day. However, to date, we have not found statistics that indicate to what extent the concentration levels of particulate matter PM 2.5 , PM 10 and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) pollutants decrease as a result of public policy. We used official data from the Chilean Government’s national air quality information system (SINCA) for the Santiago metropolitan region and estimated the impact of the confinement by COVID-19 on the ambient concentration average values of NO x gases and particulate matter PM 2.5 and PM 10 , which are the main air pollutants produced by the transport sector after CO 2 . We found that in general there are significant differences between the average levels of gas emissions for 2020 compared to 2019. In particular, we found that, for the months of total confinement May-July, the monthly average levels decreased between 7% and 19% for particulate matter PM 2.5 , between 18% and 50% for PM 10 and between 34% and 48% for NO x . With the return to the new normality, these improvements in ambient concentration levels may be affected by the increase in private transport trips, due to the reluctance of citizens to return to mass public transport. Our results, therefore, represent the maximum impact that can be expected in reducing ambient concentration levels in the city of Santiago of Chile when a mobility reduction of gasoline vehicles is implemented. The reduction of PM 2.5 , PM 10 and NO x was no more than 7%, 18% and 34%, respectively. The average concentration of PM 2.5 decreased by 7–19% compared to previous years. The average concentration of PM 10 decreased by 18% and 50% compared to previous years. Concentrating commuting on public transport would help reduce levels of PM 10 and PM 2.5 .
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Luz Ángela Flórez-Calderón
- Department of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
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A Simplified Approach to Estimate EV Charging Demand in Urban Area: An Italian Case Study. ENERGIES 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/en14206697] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The development and the diffusion of the electromobility is crucial for reducing air pollution and increase sustainable transport. In particular, electrification of private mobility has a significantly role in the energy transition within urban areas, since the progressive substitution of conventional passenger cars by electric vehicles (EVs) leads to the decarbonisation of transport sector without direct emissions. However, increasing EV penetration in the market forces an expansion of the existing charging infrastructure with potential negative impacts on the distribution grid. In this context, a simplified approach is proposed to estimate the energy and power demand owing to the recharge of electric passenger cars within the city of Turin in Italy. This novel approach is based on the usage of floating car data (FCD) to identify the travel behaviour and parking habits of a non-EV passenger car in the city. Mobility data were then used to evaluate EVs energy consumption and charging needs considering different charging options (public or domestic) and range anxiety in different scenarios of EV diffusion. Aggregated load profiles and demand were finally evaluated both for the whole and for each zone of the city as possible resource for city planner or distribution system operators (DSO).
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