Threats of climate change and land use patterns enhance the susceptibility of future floods in India

Projecting the effect of climate change on multiple Geomorphological hazard using machine learning data driven approaches

Land subsidence (LS) and collapsed pipes (CP) pose environmental and socio-economic threats in arid and semi-arid regions. This study assesses the effect of climate change to address these problems in Khorasan-Razavi province, Iran. Thus, we mapped soil landforms susceptible to LS and CP based on climatic, geolocic, topoghraphic, hydrologic and edaphic variables using an ensemble forecasting approach. Additionally, we predicted the future susceptibility of CP and LS based on two future emission scenario pathways (SSP 5-8.5 and SSP 1-2.6), in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090. The assessment showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) indicated that the ensemble model accurately predicted the distribution of CP and LS (AUC > 0.8). Slope and clay content proved to be the most important factors affecting CP, whereas distance from faults and precipitation seasonality played more roles in LS susceptibility. The classification results indicated varying susceptibility levels to CP and LS in Khorasan-Razavi province, with approximately 31.58% categorized as low and 15.24% as very high LS susceptibility, while 42.71% were in the low CP susceptibility class. Overall, 57.16% of the area is safe from both hazards; however, 6.16% is vulnerable to both hazards, with more than 35% at risk for at least one hazard. Future prediction models suggest that up to approximately 4% of the area will consist susceptible to both hazards under both scenario emissions and less than 1% of the study area will reduce susceptibility for both studied hazards in future. The majority of regions that remain susceptible are in the southern province. These results guide for soil management to protect soil and water from the effects of humans and climate alternation in poor areas worldwide.

Spatio-temporal variations of land use carbon emissions and its low carbon strategies for coastal areas in China with nighttime lighting data

Coastal areas are one of the most concentrated and fastest urbanizing areas for human activities. Land use carbon emissions (LUCE) related to human activities are recognized as an essential contributor of climate change. Nevertheless, carbon emissions linked to changes in land use in coastal areas remain unclear. While nighttime light images can effectively indicate the human activity intensity in different geographic spaces and monitor the spatio-temporal dynamics of human social activities. Here, we investigated the spatio-temporal changes in LUCE using nighttime light images during 1991-2020 in Shandong Province. The influential drivers of LUCE were detected by employing GeoDetector. The results demonstrated that (1) Carbon emissions from construction land at the city scale can be modeled with nighttime lighting data. (2) Cities with highest carbon emissions were Weifang (27.9 MtCO2e) and Qingdao (31.63 MtCO2e) in the study area. Average annual growth rate for LUCE was the highest during 2000-2010 (315.42%), and reached an inflection point in 2013 during the study period. (3) The mean center of LUCE has been in Weifang for most of the last 30 years. (4) GDP had the largest q statistic of 0.781, and was the main factor affecting LUCE. (5) Low-carbon development in coastal areas needs to increase carbon sinks in addition to reducing carbon sources. The results provide a theoretical basis for improving the ecological environment in Shandong Province and a scientific reference for the development of low-carbon in coastal areas.

Carbon farming co-benefits optimization in south-eastern Australian rangeland

Global efforts to combat climate change have motivated the adoption of carbon farming as one strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon farming has gained traction in southeast Australian pastoral areas, largely driven by an Australian Commonwealth payment for carbon abatement scheme known as the Emission Reduction Fund (ERF). However, the ERF focuses solely on carbon storage and overlooks the additional co-benefits from carbon farming. This study explores the potential for optimizing land use in carbon farming to maximize co-benefits while maintaining financial returns and carbon storage benefits. Four different scenarios were analysed for our Western Division, New South Wales (NSW) study area. A baseline least-cost scenario that maximizes total economic return, and two co-benefit scenarios that examine the potential impacts of prioritizing biodiversity or land degradation resistance. A final balanced co-benefit scenario explored the trade-offs between land degradation resistance and biodiversity co-benefits. All three co-benefit scenarios impose constraints requiring financial returns and carbon storage to be above baseline scenario levels and allow a 10 % increase in budget consistent with a premium for co-benefit outcomes. The headline results show a fourfold increase in biodiversity priority score and a 230 % increase in land degradation resistance score without reducing landholder returns. The total economic return remained at similar values since the constraints were set to zero sacrifices, while the carbon abatement showed a 10 % increase in three co-benefit scenarios. This increase in total carbon abatement was achieved across the greater land area due to a nearly two-fold higher abatement potential of selected cells in the least cost scenario compared with the other co-benefit scenarios. Overall, the results illustrate the considerable potential to improve co-beneficial outcomes without losses in carbon storage or landowner returns and lay the groundwork for including such benefits in carbon markets. This emphasizes the necessity of strategic resource allocation and mindful consideration of objectives and constraints for better carbon farming outcomes. The research highlights how better co-benefits from carbon farming can be aligned with global efforts to address climate change while promoting additional ecosystem services as carbon farming co-benefits.

The cost of flooding on housing under climate change in the Philippines: Examining projected damage at the local scale

While the Philippines has made significant strides in proactive disaster risk reduction measures, current planning actions are undertaken primarily based on historical flood risk. There are gaps in understanding how the escalating impacts of climate change will alter flood dynamics. This study examines shifting local flood risk patterns in the Municipality of Carigara in Leyte. We quantify probabilistic flood damage on residential structures for early, mid-, and late-term flood scenarios under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways. By utilising localised housing vulnerability functions, we assess risk trends at a household level, considering concrete, light material, and elevated light material housing typologies. Our results indicate a 3 % decrease in future flood damages to residential structures under RCP 4.5 and a 34 % decrease in damages under RCP 8.5 by 2100 attributable to climate change for 100-year flood events. These shifts highlight the nuances of regional changes in flood damages over the next century. The findings provide insights into how localised climate-risk assessments for municipalities might be established as entry points to inform climate change policies and projects. Through established mechanisms such as Local Disaster Risk Reduction Management Funds (LDRRMF) in the Philippines, we propose methods of climate-informed decision-making for local government units to minimise damage for future climate scenarios.

Impact of climate change on future flood susceptibility projections under shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios in South Asia using artificial intelligence algorithms

This study investigated the impact of climate change on flood susceptibility in six South Asian countries Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Bharat (India), Nepal, and Pakistan-under two distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-5.8, for 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. To predict flood susceptibility, we employed three artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms: the K-nearest neighbor (KNN), conditional inference random forest (CIRF), and regularized random forest (RRF). Predictions were based on data from 2452 historical flood events, alongside climatic variables measured over monthly, seasonal, and annual timeframes. The innovative aspect of this research is the emphasis on using climatic variables across these progressively condensed timeframes, specifically addressing eight precipitation factors. The performance evaluation, employing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) metric, identified the RRF model as the most accurate, with the highest AUC of 0.94 during the testing phase, followed by the CIRF (AUC = 0.91) and the KNN (AUC = 0.86). An analysis of variable importance highlighted the substantial role of certain climatic factors, namely precipitation in the warmest quarter, annual precipitation, and precipitation during the wettest month, in the modeling of flood susceptibility in South Asia. The resultant flood susceptibility maps demonstrated the influence of climate change scenarios on susceptibility classifications, signalling a dynamic landscape of flood-prone areas over time. The findings revealed variable trends under different climate change scenarios and periods, with marked differences in the percentage of areas classified as having high and very high flood susceptibility. Overall, this study advances our understanding of how climate change affects flood susceptibility in South Asia and offers an essential tool for assessing and managing flood risks in the region.

Evaluating net primary productivity dynamics and their response to land-use change in the loess plateau after the 'Grain for Green' program

Assessing net primary productivity (NPP) dynamics and the contribution of land-use change (LUC) to NPP can help guide scientific policy to better restore and control the ecological environment. Since 1999, the "Green for Grain" Program (GGP) has strongly affected the spatial and temporal pattern of NPP on the Loess Plateau (LP); however, the multifaceted impact of phased vegetation engineering measures on NPP dynamics remains unclear. In this study, the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model was used to simulate NPP dynamics and quantify the relative contributions of LUC and climate change (CC) to NPP under two different scenarios. The results showed that the average NPP on the LP increased from 240.7 gC·m-2 to 422.5 gC·m-2 from 2001 to 2020, with 67.43% of the areas showing a significant increasing trend. LUC was the main contributor to NPP increases during the study period, and precipitation was the most important climatic factor affecting NPP dynamics. The cumulative amount of NPP change caused by LUC (ΔNPPLUC) showed a fluctuating growth trend (from 46.23 gC·m-2 to 127.25 gC·m-2), with a higher growth rate in period ΙΙ (2010-2020) than in period Ι (2001-2010), which may be related to the accumulation of vegetation biomass and the delayed effect of the GGP on NPP. The contribution rate of LUC to increased NPP in periods Ι and ΙΙ was 101.2% and 51.2%, respectively. Regarding the transformation mode, the transformation of grassland to forest had the greatest influence on ΔNPPLUC. Regarding land-use type, the increased efficiency of NPP was improved in cropland, grassland, and forest. This study provides a scientific basis for the scientific management and development of vegetation engineering measures and regional sustainable development.

Solving the spatial extrapolation problem in flood susceptibility using hybrid machine learning, remote sensing, and GIS

Floods are arguably the most impactful of natural hazards. The increasing magnitude of their effects on the environment, human life, and economic activities calls for improved management of water resources. Flood susceptibility modeling has been used around the world to reduce the damage caused by flooding, although the extrapolation problem still presents a significant challenge. This study develops a machine learning (ML) model utilizing deep neural network (DNN) and optimization algorithms, namely earthworm optimization algorithm (EOA), wildebeest herd optimization (WHO), biogeography-based optimization (BBO), satin bowerbird optimizer (SBO), grasshopper optimization algorithm (GOA), and particle swarm optimization (PSO), to solve the extrapolation problem in the construction of flood susceptibility models. Quang Nam Province was chosen as a case study as it is subject to the significant impact of intense flooding, and Nghe An Province was selected as the region for extrapolation of the flood susceptibility model. Root mean square error (RMSE), receiver operating characteristic (ROC), the area under the ROC curve (AUC), and accuracy (ACC) were applied to assess and compare the fit of each of the models. The results indicated that the models in this study are a good fit in establishing flood susceptibility maps, all with AUC > 0.9. The deep neural network (DNN)-BBO model enjoyed the best results (AUC = 0.99), followed by DNN-WHO (AUC = 0.99), DNN-SBO (AUC = 0.98), DNN-EOA (AUC = 0.96), DNN-GOA (AUC = 0.95), and finally, DNN-PSO (AUC = 0.92). In addition, the models successfully solved the extrapolation problem. These new models can modify their behavior to evaluate flood susceptibility in different regions of the world. The models in this study distribute a first point of reference for debate on the solution to the extrapolation problem, which can support urban planners and other decision-makers in other coastal regions in Vietnam and other countries.

Evaluating flood potential in the Mahanadi River Basin, India, using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and topographic flood susceptibility index under non-stationary framework

Extreme flood events have been recorded recently in the Mahanadi River basin in India with a high destructive potential that causes large social and economic damages. Because fewer hydrometeorological stations can record the flood magnitude in the basin, exploring new datasets like Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) becomes important to overcome the barriers of assessing the hydrological extremes. The study estimates the flood potential using the GRACE-based terrestrial water storage (TWS) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP)-based topographic flood susceptibility to model the non-stationary flood frequency. During extreme flood events, the magnitude of the combined flood potential index (CFPI) is high (CFPI > 0.6), which correlates with higher river discharge. The CFPI value for the 2012 flood event with a discharge of 11,000 m3/sec (corresponds to a 35-year return period) is recorded at 0.67. Likewise, the CFPI for the flood event in 2011, which corresponds to a return period of 17 years, also stands at 0.63. The overall correlation between the discharge values of various flood events and CFPI values is above 0.8 for all locations, indicating GRACE-based CFPI's applicability for identifying the flood risk for larger basins like Mahanadi. Furthermore, on integrating CFPI as a covariate in non-stationary flood frequency modeling, the study found its superior performance when compared to both stationary models and non-stationary models with time or other climate indices as covariates, thus, helping in accurate estimation of flood return levels that are very useful in the hydrological design of water resources projects.

Flood susceptibility assessment of the Agartala Urban Watershed, India, using Machine Learning Algorithm

Frequent floods are a severe threat to the well-being of people the world over. This is particularly severe in developing countries like India where tropical monsoon climate prevails. Recently, flood hazard susceptibility mapping has become a popular tool to mitigate the effects of this threat. Therefore, the present study utilized four distinctive Machine Learning algorithms i.e., K-Nearest Neighbor, Decision Tree, Naive Bayes, and Random Forest to estimate flood susceptibility zones in the Agartala Urban Watershed of Tripura, India. The latter experiences debilitating floods during the monsoon season. A multicollinearity test was conducted to examine the collinearity of the chosen flood conditioning factors, and it was seen that none of the factors were compromised by multicollinearity. Results showed that around three-fourths of the AUW area was classified as moderate to very high flood-prone zones, while over 20 percent was between low and very low flood-prone zones. The models applied performed well with ROC-AUC scores greater than 70 percent and MAE, MSE, and RMSE scores less than 30 percent. DT and RF algorithms were suggested for places with similar physical characteristics based on their outstanding performance and the training datasets. The study provides valuable insights to policymakers, administrative authorities, and local stakeholders to cope with floods and enhance flood prevention measures as a climate change adaptation strategy in the AUW.

Development of geo-environmental factors controlled flash flood hazard map for emergency relief operation in complex hydro-geomorphic environment of tropical river, India

The occurrences of flash floods in sub-tropical climatic regions like India are ubiquitous phenomena, particularly during the monsoon season. This type of flood occurs within a short period of time and makes it distinctive from all-natural hazards, which causes huge loss of economy and causalities of life. Therefore, its prediction is crucial and one of the challenging tasks for researchers to mitigate this sustainably. Furthermore, identifying flash flood susceptible regions is the foremost responsibility in managing flood events, which helps the local administration take emergency relief operations in flood-prone regions. In September 2021, the flood in the Gandheswari river basin was the most severe compared to the past decade. The occurrences of flash floods in the lower course of the Gandheswari river has been affected riparian habitats rigorously. Thus, in this study, we proposed the bivariate logistic regression (LR) method to delineate this river basin's flash flood hazard (FFH) map. Here, sixteen flood conditioning factors were selected for modeling purposes with the help of a multicollinearity test, and a total of 71 flood points were identified from the historical dataset. The produced result was validated by six distinctive validating techniques, including receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis, specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and F-score. These techniques have shown that present modeling has high predictive performance in both training and testing dataset with the values of ROC (training-0.928, validating-0.892), specificity (training-0.911, validating-0.882), sensitivity (training-0.915, validating-0.885), PPV (training-0.912, validating-0.874), NPV (training-0.91, validating-0.875), and F-score (training-0.92, validating-0.89). Therefore, the proposed method in this and the outcome result will help the disaster manager make proper decisions to mitigate the hazardous situation and take sustainable emergency relief operations.

Influencing Factors and Risk Assessment of Precipitation-Induced Flooding in Zhengzhou, China, Based on Random Forest and XGBoost Algorithms

Due to extreme weather phenomena, precipitation-induced flooding has become a frequent, widespread, and destructive natural disaster. Risk assessments of flooding have thus become a popular area of research. In this study, we studied the severe precipitation-induced flooding that occurred in Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China, in July 2021. We identified 16 basic indicators, and the random forest algorithm was used to determine the contribution of each indicator to the Zhengzhou flood. We then optimised the selected indicators and introduced the XGBoost algorithm to construct a risk index assessment model of precipitation-induced flooding. Our results identified four primary indicators for precipitation-induced flooding in the study area: total rainfall for three consecutive days, extreme daily rainfall, vegetation cover, and the river system. The Zhengzhou storm and flood risk evaluation model was constructed from 12 indicators: elevation, slope, water system index, extreme daily rainfall, total rainfall for three consecutive days, night-time light brightness, land-use type, proportion of arable land area, gross regional product, proportion of elderly population, vegetation cover, and medical rescue capacity. After streamlining the bottom four indicators in terms of contribution rate, it had the best performance, with an accuracy rate reaching 91.3%. Very high-risk and high-risk areas accounted for 11.46% and 27.50% of the total area of Zhengzhou, respectively, and their distribution was more significantly influenced by the extent of heavy rainfall, direction of river systems, and land types; the medium-risk area was the largest, accounting for 33.96% of the total area; the second-lowest-risk and low-risk areas together accounted for 27.09%. The areas with the highest risk of heavy rainfall and flooding in Zhengzhou were in the Erqi, Guanchenghui, Jinshui, Zhongyuan, and Huizi Districts and the western part of Xinmi City; these areas should be given priority attention during disaster monitoring and early warning and risk prevention and control.

The trend and spatial spread of multisectoral climate extremes in CMIP6 models

Climate change could exacerbate extreme climate events. This study investigated the global and continental representations of fourteen multisectoral climate indices during the historical (1979-2014), near future (2025-2060) and far future (2065-2100) periods under two emission scenarios, in eleven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) General Circulation Models (GCM). We ranked the GCMs based on five metrics centred on their temporal and spatial performances. Most models followed the reference pattern during the historical period. MPI-ESM ranked best in replicating the daily precipitation intensity (DPI) in Africa, while CANESM5 GCM ranked first in heatwave index (HI), maximum consecutive dry days (MCCD). Across the different continents, MPI-LR GCM performed best in replicating the DPI, except in Africa. The model ranks could provide valuable information when selecting appropriate GCM ensembles when focusing on climate extremes. A global evaluation of the multi-index causal effects for the various indices shows that the dry spell total length (DSTL) was the most crucial index modulating the MCCD for all continents. Also, most indices exhibited a positive climate change signal from the historical to the future. Therefore, it is crucial to design appropriate strategies to strengthen resilience to extreme climatic events while mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.

Impact of extreme weather events on cropland inundation over Indian subcontinent

Cyclonic storms and extreme precipitation lead to loss of lives and significant damage to land and property, crop productivity, etc. The "Gulab" cyclonic storm formed on the 24^th of September 2021 in the Bay of Bengal (BoB), hit the eastern Indian coasts on the 26^th of September and caused massive damage and water inundation. This study used Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) satellite precipitation data for daily to monthly scale assessments focusing on the "Gulab" cyclonic event. The Otsu's thresholding approach was applied to Sentinel-1 data to map water inundation. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed to analyze the precipitation deviation compared to the 20 years mean climatology across India from June to November 2021 on a monthly scale. The water-inundated areas were overlaid on a recent publicly available high-resolution land use land cover (LULC) map to demarcate crop area damage in four eastern Indian states such as Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and Telangana. The maximum water inundation and crop area damages were observed in Andhra Pradesh (~2700 km²), followed by Telangana (~2040 km²) and Odisha (~1132 km²), and the least in Chhattisgarh (~93.75 km²). This study has potential implications for an emergency response to extreme weather events, such as cyclones, extreme precipitation, and flood. The spatio-temporal data layers and rapid assessment methodology can be helpful to various users such as disaster management authorities, mitigation and response teams, and crop insurance scheme development. The relevant satellite data, products, and cloud-computing facility could operationalize systematic disaster monitoring under the rising threats of extreme weather events in the coming years.

Application of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle DEM in flood modeling and comparison with global DEMs: Case study of Atrak River Basin, Iran

Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) play a significant role in hydraulic modeling and flood risk management. This study initially investigated the effect of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) DEM resolutions, ranging from 1 m to 30 m, on flood characteristics, including the inundation area, mean flow depth, and mean flow velocity. Then, the errors of flood characteristics for global DEMs, comprising ALOS (30 m), ASTER (30 m), SRTM (30 m), and TDX (12 m) were quantified using UAV DEM measurements. For these purposes, the HEC-RAS 2D model in steady-state conditions was used to simulate the flood with return periods of 5- to 200 years along 20 km reach of Atrak River located in northeastern Iran. Results indicated when UAV DEM resolution decreased from 1 m to 30 m, inundation area and mean flow depth increased 17.0% (R² = 0.94) and 10.2% (R² = 0.96) respectively, while mean flow velocity decreased 16.8% (R² = -0.94). Validation of the hydraulic modeling using the modified normalized difference water index demonstrated that the HEC-RAS 2D model in conjunction with UAV DEM simulates the flood with ⁓92% accuracy. Comparing the global DEMs with UAV DEM showed that the root mean square error (RMSE) values of the flow depth for ASTER, SRTM, ALOS, and TDX DEMs were 1.77, 1.12, 1.02, and 0.93 m, and the RMSE values of the flow velocity for the same DEMs were 0.81, 0.66, 0.55, and 0.47 m/s, respectively. Furthermore, TDX DEM with a 6.15% error in the inundation area was the nearest to UAV measurements. Overall, TDX DEM revealed a better performance in hydraulic modeling of the fluvial flood characteristics. Hence, it is recommended for environments where high-resolution topography data is scarce. The results of this study could potentially serve as a guideline for selecting global DEMs for hydraulic simulations.