Past and future impacts of land-use changes on ecosystem services in Austria

Data on yield and soil parameters of three diverse tilled long-term experimental sites in Austria (2018-2022)

The agroecological "Marchfeld" cluster assessed the impact of tillage on primary production (yield) and selected soil parameters at three sites (two conventionally and one organically managed) from 2018-2022. The data were uniformly compiled in a data set. The examined factors were no, minimum (5-8 cm), reduced (10-15 cm) and conventional (25-30 cm) tillage. All measured parameters were documented in a state-of-the-art quality control approach and stored in the data set. The long-term experimental (LTER) sites have been operating for a long time (from 6-34 years), so that our parameters show accumulated historical developments that influence the present. The data is available for (re)use by others (scientists, stakeholders, etc.) on Zenodo for meta-analyses, process modelling and other environmental studies.

Indices of human impacts on landscapes: How do they reflect the proportions of natural habitats?

Human activities significantly influence landscapes, altering natural habitats and ecosystem services. This study examines the relationship between human impacts, measured by the hemeroby index and coefficient of anthropogenic impact (CAI´), and the presence of natural habitats in the Czech Republic. Using CORINE land cover data and natural habitat mapping, we analysed national and regional scales to assess the effectiveness of these indicators in reflecting environmental changes. Compared with the simple anthropogenic impact coefficient (CAI´), the hemeroby index, which accounts for both the quantity and quality of ecosystems, provides more detailed insights. At the national level, both indices had an equally close relationship with the proportion of natural habitats, but at the regional level, the results for the hemeroby index were better. Our findings indicate a strong negative correlation between human impacts and the proportion of natural habitats, emphasizing the importance of refined indicators for environmental monitoring and policy-making. The advantage of both indices is that they could be easily calculated from satellite images and/or land cover data. Therefore, they could be used worldwide.

Mapping the probability of forest fire hazard across the European Alps under climate change scenarios

Forest fires are increasing in frequency and intensity worldwide due to the anthropogenic climate change, threatening people's lives and causing huge economic and environmental damages. Recent forest fire events suggest that forest fires are also an urgent issue in the European Alps, but studies assessing the forest fire hazard under future climate scenarios are still rare. Thus, this study aims to analyse the impacts of climate change on the probability of forest fire hazard across the European Alps and surrounding areas. In specific, we (1) explain the current forest fire hazard based on a set of environmental and anthropogenic parameters, and (2) map the forest fire hazard under current and future conditions across the study area using geographically weighted regression. Our results suggest that the fire hazard mainly depends on the frequency of lightning strikes, the annual mean temperature, and the precipitation seasonality. Overall, our results indicate a future increase in forest fire hazard, which is already significant under the SSP126 (+15.5%), while highest increases occur under the SSP370 (30.6%) and the SSP585 (35.4%). However, while the impacts are less pronounced in already fire-prone regions in the southwestern regions in France, the probability of forest fire hazard will greatly increase in the Northern and Eastern regions. Our findings emphasize the urgent need to address these climate-related challenges by decision-making and management through fire-smart forest management. Nevertheless, further efforts are needed to overcome current limitations related to data availability and uncertainties in future scenarios.

Long-term effects of vegetation restoration and forest management on carbon pools and nutrient storages in northeastern Loess Plateau, China

It is crucial for understanding the variations of carbon and nutrient pools within the ecosystems during long-term vegetation restoration to accurately assess the effects of different ecological restoration patterns. However, the long-term spatio-temporal variations of carbon and nutrient pools under different vegetation types remain unclear. The sites for long-term natural and planted forests (i.e., Natural secondary forest, Pinus tabulaeformis planted forest, Platycladus orientalis planted forest, and Robinia pseudoacacia planted forest) on the northeastern Loess Plateau, China were selected, to measure and analyze the differences and interannual variations of vegetation attributes at four synusiae and soil properties at 0-100 cm over the period of 12 years (2006-2017). The principal component analysis (PCA) and Mantel test were also conducted to explore the relationships among vegetation attributes, soil properties, and carbon and nutrient pools. The results showed that: compared with the planted forests, the natural secondary forest had lower arborous biomass (84.21 ± 1.53 t hm-2) and higher understory biomass and plant heights. Compared to planted forests, the secondary forest had higher soil carbon and nitrogen contents (13.74 ± 3.50 g kg-1 and 1.16 ± 0.34 g kg-1). The soil carbon pool in the secondary forest was 22.0% higher than planted forests, while the vegetation carbon pool in the P. tabulaeformis was 75.5% higher than other forests. Principal component analysis (PCA) and Mantel test revealed that vegetation attributes and soil properties had significant correlations with carbon and nutrient pools, especially at the arborous synusia (p < 0.01). The findings indicated that in the ecologically fragile Loess Plateau region, the selection of appropriate vegetation restoration types should be guided by varying ecological restoration goals and benefits, aiming to expected ecological outcomes. This insight offers a strategic implication for forest management that is tailored to improve carbon and nutrient pools in areas with similar environmental conditions.

Past dynamics and future prediction of the impacts of land use cover change and climate change on landscape ecological risk across the Mongolian plateau

Land use/land cover (LULC) change and climate change are interconnected factors that affect the ecological environment. However, there is a lack of quantification of the impacts of LULC change and climate change on landscape ecological risk under different shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP-RCP) on the Mongolian Plateau (MP). To fill this knowledge gap and understand the current and future challenges facing the MP's land ecological system, we conducted an evaluation and prediction of the effects of LULC change and climate change on landscape ecological risk using the landscape loss index model and random forest method, considering eight SSP-RCP coupling scenarios. Firstly, we selected MCD12Q1 as the optimal LULC product for studying landscape changes on the MP, comparing it with four other LULC products. We analyzed the diverging patterns of LULC change over the past two decades and observed significant differences between Mongolia and Inner Mongolia. The latter experienced more intense and extensive LULC change during this period, despite similar climate changes. Secondly, we assessed changes in landscape ecological risk and identified the main drivers of these changes over the past two decades using a landscape index model and random forest method. The highest-risk zone has gradually expanded, with a 30% increase compared to 2001. Lastly, we investigated different characteristics of LULC change under different scenarios by examining future LULC products simulated by the FLUS model. We also simulated the dynamics of landscape ecological risks under these scenarios and proposed an adaptive development strategy to promote sustainable development in the MP. In terms of the impact of climate change on landscape ecological risk, we found that under the same SSP scenario, increasing RCP emission concentrations significantly increased the areas with high landscape ecological risk while decreasing areas with low risk. By integrating quantitative assessments and scenario-based modeling, our study provides valuable insights for informing sustainable land management and policy decisions in the region.

Synergies and trade-offs of ecosystem services affected by land use structures of small watershed in the Loess Plateau

The Chinese government has implemented a series of ecological restoration projects in the Loess Plateau (LP), and the surface cover changed dramatically, impacting the ecosystem services (ESs) greatly. In this study, we used K-means clustering to classify the land use structures (LUSs) of the LP from 1990 to 2015 at the small watershed scale, and investigated the effects of LUS on water supply (WS), soil conservation (SC), and carbon sequestration (CS, expressed as NPP) with constraint lines. The values of WS and SC were obtained from the InVEST simulation, validated by the hydrographic station data. The results showed that the LUSs in LP were cropland structure (CLS, distinguished with CS), forest structure (FS), grassland structure (GS), crop-grassland structure (CGS), crop-forest-grassland structure (CFGS) and a very few areas of barren structure (BS). The proportion of dominant land use in those LUSs with a balance of WS, SC, and CS was 0.6-0.7 (cropland in CLS), 0.5 (forest in FS), 0.45/0.4 (cropland/grassland in CGS), 0.75 to 0.85 (grassland in GS), and 0.15/0.4/0.25 to 0.35 (cropland/forest/grassland in CFGS), respectively. The types of constraint curves of ESs for those LUSs involves hump-shaped curve, negative convex, half-concave-waved curve and concave-waved curve. This study proposed a method to objectively delineate LUS and improved the constraint line method to make it suitable for cases with less data, innovatively presenting the variation of ESs inside LUSs, which may provide a reference for optimal land planning and sustainable development of social-ecological systems.

An improved approach for evaluating landscape ecological risks and exploring its coupling coordination with ecosystem services

The rapid urbanization has accelerated the destruction of regional ecosystems, triggering ecological risks and threatening sustainable development. Landscape ecological risk (LER) evaluation is an effective tool to mitigate such negative impacts. However, the existing evaluation systems exhibit certain subjectivity. Therefore, an improved LER evaluation method was proposed, which incorporates ecosystem services (ESs) to characterize landscape vulnerability. The method was validated using the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration (PRDUA) as the study area. The results showed that the optimal grain size and extent for landscape pattern analysis in the PRDUA were determined to be 150 m and 6km × 6 km, respectively. The comparison results with the traditional LER evaluation method demonstrated the improved method's superior rationality and reliability. The hotspot analysis based on the Getis-Ord Gi* method revealed that the hotspots of LER were mainly concentrated in the densely populated areas of the south-central region of the PRDUA. The coupling coordination degree (CCD) between LERs and ESs showed four different levels of development in both temporal and spatial dimensions, generally dominated by moderately balanced development and lagging ESs, reflecting the unbalanced ecological environment and socio-economic development of the PRDUA. It is recommended that the ecosystems in the PRDUA be managed and protected separately according to the delineated Ecological Protection Area (EPA), Urban Built-up Area (UBA), and Urban Ecological Boundary Area (UEBA). This study can provide an important reference for regional ecosystem conservation and management.