MELD score and hepatocellular carcinoma identify patients at different risk of short-term mortality among cirrhotics bleeding from esophageal varices

Outcomes and Prognostic Factors in Cirrhotic Patients with Acute Variceal Bleeding and Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Nested Case-Control Study

Purpose

The treatment outcomes and risk factors for the prognosis of acute variceal bleeding (AVB) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients remain unclear. Hence, we assessed the clinical outcomes and prognostic factors of these patients.

Methods

This study retrospectively enrolled 1532 AVB patients with cirrhosis from January 2016 to December 2022. Of these patients, 310 had HCC, and after 1:1 individual matching, 306 of them were matched with 306 patients without HCC. Six-week mortality, one-year mortality, and five-day treatment failure were recorded.

Results

In the matched-pair analysis, patients with HCC had a higher rate of 6-week and 1-year mortality than those without HCC (6-week: 24.5% vs 7.8%, P < 0.001; 1-year: 45.9% vs 16.2%, P < 0.001). The rate of 5-day treatment failure was similar between the two groups (21.1% vs 16.7%, P = 0.213). Among AVB patients with HCC, the multivariate analysis revealed that the Child-Pugh score (HR, 1.239, 95% CI, 1.121-1.370; P < 0.001) and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage (C-D vs 0-B) (HR, 14.409; 95% CI, 5.758-36.055; P < 0.001) were independently associated with 6-week mortality. Moreover, the rate of 6-week mortality was 60.2% in patients who had a high Child-Pugh score (≥9) and advanced BCLC stage (C-D), much higher than in those with low Child-Pugh score (<9) and earlier BCLC stage (0-B) (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Among patients with cirrhosis and AVB, patients with HCC had significantly worse outcomes than those without. The severity of liver disease and the stage of HCC are the main determinants of mortality in HCC patients.

Developing a nomogram for forecasting the 28-day mortality rate of individuals with bleeding esophageal varices using model for end-stage liver disease scores

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to create a nomogram using the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) that can better predict the risk of 28-day mortality in patients with bleeding esophageal varices.

METHODS

Data on patients with bleeding esophageal varices were retrospectively collected from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database. Variables were selected using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression model and were used to construct a prognostic nomogram. The nomogram was evaluated against the MELD model using various methods, including receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, calibration plotting, net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

A total of 280 patients were included in the study. The patient's use of vasopressin and norepinephrine, respiratory rate, temperature, mean corpuscular volume, and MELD score were included in the nomogram. The area under the ROC curve, NRI, IDI, and DCA of the nomogram indicated that it performs better than the MELD alone.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram was created that outperformed the MELD score in forecasting the risk of 28-day mortality in individuals with bleeding esophageal varices.

Evaluation of D-dimer and prothrombin time in alcohol related liver cirrhosis with comparison of machine learning analyses

OBJECTIVES

Liver cirrhosis (LC) can be caused by obesity, alcohol consumption, viral infection, and autoimmune disease. Early diagnosis and management of LC is important for patient quality of life. Non-invasive diagnostic methods are useful for predicting the current status and mortality risk of LC. The purpose of this study is to identify relevant diagnostic factors measured in routine laboratory test of alcohol-related liver cirrhosis (ALC) patients.

METHODS

This study analyzed data from 127 patients with ALC, including their laboratory test results and clinical information, including coagulation parameters, hematologic parameters, and biochemical parameters. These data were used to compare the performance of the prediction models from three machine learning algorithms including K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), and random forest (RF).

RESULTS

Higher Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score were associated with prothrombin time (PT) and D-dimer. Logistic and multiple linear regression analyses revealed significant factors predicting mortality in the MELD group. Machine learning approaches were used to predict death in ALC patients using some laboratory parameters associated with mortality. The prediction model based on SVM exhibited better prediction performance than others.

CONCLUSION

PT and D-dimer were the factors that were most strongly associated with 90-day mortality, and machine learning methods can create prediction models with good predictive power.

A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Early Rebleeding After Endoscopic Treatment of Esophagogastric Variceal Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

Early rebleeding is a significant complication of endoscopic treatment for esophagogastric variceal hemorrhage (EGVH). However, a reliable predictive model is currently lacking.

AIMS

To identify risk factors for rebleeding within 6 weeks and establish a nomogram for predicting early rebleeding after endoscopic treatment of EVGH.

METHODS

Demographic information, comorbidities, preoperative evaluation, endoscopic features, and laboratory tests were collected from 119 patients who were first endoscopic treatment for EGVH. Independent risk factors for early rebleeding were determined through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of the nomogram were assessed and compared with the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), Child-Pugh, and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) scores using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analyses (DCA).

RESULTS

Early rebleeding occurred in 39 patients (32.8%) within 6 weeks after endoscopic treatment. Independent early rebleeding factors included gastric variceal hemorrhage (GVH), concomitant hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), international normalized ratio (INR), and creatinine. The nomogram demonstrated exceptional calibration and discrimination capability. The area under the curve for the nomogram was 0.758 (95% CI 0.668-0.848), and it was validated at 0.71 through cross-validation and bootstrapping validation. The DCA and ROC curves demonstrated that the nomogram outperformed the MELD, Child-Pugh, and ALBI scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with existing prediction scores, the nomogram demonstrated superior discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability for predicting rebleeding in patients with EGVH after endoscopic treatment. Therefore, it may assist clinicians in the early implementation of aggressive treatment and follow-up.

Endoscopic variceal ligation versus propranolol for the primary prevention of oesophageal variceal bleeding in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: an open-label, two-centre, randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

This randomised trial aimed to address whether endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) or propranolol (PPL) is more effective at preventing initial oesophageal variceal bleeding (EVB) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

DESIGN

Patients with HCC and medium-to-large oesophageal varices (EVs) but without previous EVB were randomised to receive EVL (every 3-4 weeks until variceal eradication) or PPL (up to 320 mg daily) at a 1:1 ratio. Long-term follow-up data on EVB, other upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), non-bleeding liver decompensation, overall survival (OS) and adverse events (AEs) were analysed using competing risk regression.

RESULTS

Between June 2011 and April 2021, 144 patients were randomised to receive EVL (n=72) or PPL (n=72). In the EVL group, 7 patients experienced EVB, and 30 died; in the PPL group, 19 patients had EVB, and 40 died. The EVL group had a lower cumulative incidence of EVB (Gray's test, p=0.009) than its counterpart, with no mortality difference (Gray's test, p=0.085). For patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage A/B, EVL was better than PPL in reducing EVB (p<0.001) and mortality (p=0.003). For patients beyond BCLC stage B, between-group outcomes were similar. Other UGIB, non-bleeding liver decompensation and AEs did not differ between groups. A competing risk regression model confirmed the prognostic value of EVL.

CONCLUSION

EVL is superior to PPL in preventing initial EVB in patients with HCC. The benefits of EVL on EVB and OS may be limited to patients with BCLC stage A/B and not to those with BCLC stage C/D.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT01970748.

MELD 3.0 in Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

The MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) 3.0 score was developed to replace the MELD-Na score that is currently used to prioritize liver allocation for cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation in the United States. The MELD 3.0 calculator includes new inputs from patient sex and serum albumin levels and has new weights for serum sodium, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine levels. It is expected that use of MELD 3.0 scores will reduce overall waitlist mortality modestly and improve access for female liver transplant candidates. The utility of MELD 3.0 and PELDcre (pediatric end-stage liver disease, creatinine) scores for risk stratification in cirrhotic patients undergoing major abdominal surgery, placement of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt, and other interventions requires further study. This article reviews the background of the MELD score and the rationale to create MELD 3.0 as well as potential implications of using this newer risk stratification tool in clinical practice.

Partial splenic embolization combined with endoscopic therapies and vasoconstrictive drugs reduces rebleeding in cirrhosis patients with acute variceal bleeding and hypersplenism: a multicenter randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to compare the efficacy of partial splenic embolization (PSE) combined with endoscopic therapy and endoscopic therapy alone in cirrhosis patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) and hypersplenism.

METHODS

Cirrhosis patients with AVB who visited three hospitals from June 2016 to June 2022 were prospectively enrolled and randomly allocated to either the endoscopic therapy combined with PSE group (EP group) or the endoscopic intervention group (E group) in a 1:1 ratio. The primary endpoint of the study was re-bleeding of varices during follow-up, and the secondary endpoints were the recurrence of varices, death, and adverse events.

RESULTS

One hundred and fourteen patients were prospectively included, of whom 110 completed the trial. The risk of variceal re-bleeding (19.3% vs. 40.4% (23/57), p = 0.013) and variceal recurrence (28.1% vs. 63.2%, p < 0.001) five years after treatment was significantly lower in the EP group than in the E group, and the EP treatment was the only significant independent risk factor affecting variceal re-bleeding and variceal recurrence in patients. The mortality rate was comparable between the EP and E groups. Peripheral blood counts and liver function all improved significantly in the EP group compared to the E group during the follow-up (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The rates of variceal re-bleeding and recurrence were significantly lower in cirrhosis patients with AVB and hypersplenism after combined endoscopic and PSE treatment compared to those who were provided endoscopic treatment only. The peripheral blood counts and liver function were also improved significantly in EP group (NCT02778425).

Identifying predictors of varices grading in patients with cirrhosis using ensemble learning

Objectives

The present study was conducted to improve the performance of predictive methods by introducing the most important factors which have the highest effects on the prediction of esophageal varices (EV) grades among patients with cirrhosis.

Methods

In the present study, the ensemble learning methods, including Catboost and XGB classifier, were used to choose the most potent predictors of EV grades solely based on routine laboratory and clinical data, a dataset of 490 patients with cirrhosis gathered. To increase the validity of the results, a five-fold cross-validation method was applied. The model was conducted using python language, Anaconda open-source platform. TRIPOD checklist for prediction model development was completed.

Results

The Catboost model predicted all the targets correctly with 100% precision. However, the XGB classifier had the best performance for predicting grades 0 and 1, and totally the accuracy was 91.02%. The most significant variables, according to the best performing model, which was CatBoost, were child score, white blood cell (WBC), vitalism K (K), and international normalized ratio (INR).

Conclusions

Using machine learning models, especially ensemble learning models, can remarkably increase the prediction performance. The models allow practitioners to predict EV risk at any clinical visit and decrease unneeded esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) and consequently reduce morbidity, mortality, and cost of the long-term follow-ups for patients with cirrhosis.

Endotoxin Translocation and Gut Barrier Dysfunction Are Related to Variceal Bleeding in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Bacterial infections are associated with the risk of variceal bleeding through complex pathophysiologic pathways.

OBJECTIVES

The primary objective of the present case-control study was to investigate the role of bacterial translocation and intestinal barrier dysfunction in the pathogenesis of variceal bleeding. A secondary objective was to determine independent predictors of key outcomes in variceal bleeding, including bleeding-related mortality.

METHODS

Eighty-four (n = 84) consecutive patients participated in the study, 41 patients with acute variceal bleeding and 43 patients with stable cirrhosis, and were followed up for 6 weeks. Peripheral blood samples were collected at patient admission and before any therapeutic intervention.

RESULTS

Child-Pugh (CP) score (OR: 1.868; p = 0.044), IgM anti-endotoxin antibody levels (OR: 0.954; p = 0.016) and TGF-β levels (OR: 0.377; p = 0.026) were found to be significant predictors of variceal bleeding. Regression analysis revealed that albumin (OR: 0.0311; p = 0.023), CRP (OR: 3.234; p = 0.034) and FABP2 levels (OR:1.000, p = 0.040), CP score (OR: 2.504; p = 0.016), CP creatinine score (OR: 2.366; p = 0.008), end-stage liver disease model (MELD), Na (OR: 1.283; p = 0.033), portal vein thrombosis (OR: 0.075; p = 0.008), hepatocellular carcinoma (OR: 0.060; p = 0.003) and encephalopathy (OR: 0.179; p = 0.045) were significantly associated with 6-week mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Bacterial translocation and gut barrier impairment are directly related to the risk of variceal bleeding. Microbiota-modulating interventions and anti-endotoxin agents may be promising strategies to prevent variceal bleeding.

MELD-Na > 16 is associated with high peri-procedural and short-term mortality in patients with ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma treated with emergent transarterial embolization

PURPOSE

To evaluate prognostic factors associated with peri-procedural (30 days) and short-term (90 days) mortality in the United States cohort of patients following emergent transarterial embolization for ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

Patients with ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma treated with emergent TAE between January 2001 and December 2019 were retrospectively identified (n = 24). Average age was 62 years (range, 23-78 year); 15 (62.5%) were men. Univariate and Cox proportional hazard modeling were used to determine independent predictors of overall survival (OS) following TAE. OS stratified by Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium score was assessed using Kaplan-Meier analysis.

RESULTS

Twenty-one patients (88%) died during a mean clinical follow-up period of 328 ± 139 days. MELD-Na score (HR 1.22 per 1-unit increase; 95% CI 1.06-1.46; p = 0.005) and pre-rupture ECOG PS score (HR 8.1; 95% CI 1.28-51.2; p = 0.026) were independent predictors of decreased overall survival. There was no significant association between overall survival and presence of cardiovascular co-morbidities (p = 0.60), hemorrhagic shock on presentation (p = 0.16), portal vein thrombus (p = 0.08), vasopressor support required (p = 0.79), intubation required (p = 0.40), acute kidney injury (p = 0.58), and number of packed red blood cell transfusions (p = 0.22). The median OS was 64 days. Median OS was significantly greater in patients with a MELD-Na score ≤ 16 as compared to those with a MELD-Na score > 16 (166.5 days vs 9 days, p = 0.011). Cumulative OS rates in those with a MELD-Na score ≤ 16 at 30, 60, 90, and 360 days were 79%, 64%, 64%, and 25%, respectively, vs 33%, 33%, 11%, and 0%, respectively, in those with a MELD-Na score > 16.

CONCLUSION

MELD-Na > 16 is associated with very high peri-procedural (67% at 30 days) and short-term (89% at 90 days) mortality in patients with ruptured HCC treated with emergent transarterial embolization. A better understanding of these prognostic factors may help guide treatment decisions and provide realistic expectations when counseling patients and their families.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of risk scores in prediction for the clinical outcomes in patients with acute variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a life-threatening condition that needs risk stratification to guide clinical treatment. Which risk system could reflect the prognosis more accurately remains controversial. We aimed to conduct a meta-analysis of the predictive value of GBS, AIMS65, Rockall (clinical Rockall score and full Rockall score), CTP and MELD.

METHOD

PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane library, WANGFANG and CNKI were searched. Twenty-eight articles were included in the study. The Meta-DiSc software and MedCalc software were used to pool the predictive accuracy.

RESULTS

Concerning in-hospital mortality, CTP, AIMS65, MELD, Full-Rockall and GBS had a pooled AUC of 0.824, 0.793, 0.788, 0.75 and 0.683, respectively. CTP had the highest sensitivity of 0.910 (95% CI: 0.864-0.944) with a specificity of 0.666 (95% CI: 0.635-0.696). AIMS65 had the highest specificity of 0.774 (95% CI: 0.749-0.798) with a sensitivity of 0.679 (95% CI: 0.617-0.736). For follow-up mortality, MELD, AIMS65, CTP, Clinical Rockall, Full-Rockall and GBS showed a pooled AUC of 0.798, 0.77, 0.746, 0.704, 0.678 and 0.618, respectively. CTP had the highest specificity (0.806, 95% CI: 0.763-0.843) with a sensitivity of 0.722 (95% CI: 0.628-0.804). GBS had the highest sensitivity 0.800 (95% CI: 0.696-0.881) with a specificity of 0.412 (95% CI: 0.368-0.457). As for rebleeding, no score performed particularly well.

CONCLUSIONS

No risk scores were ideally identified by our systematic review. CTP was superior to other risk scores in identifying AVB patients at high risk of death in hospital and patients at low risk within follow-up. Guidelines have recommended the use of GBS to risk stratification of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. However, if the cause of upper gastrointestinal bleeding is suspected oesophageal and gastric varices, extra care should be taken. Because in this meta-analysis, the ability of GBS was limited.Key messageCTP was superior in identifying AVB patients at high risk of death in hospital and low risk within follow-up.GBS, though recommended by the Guidelines, should be cautiously used when assessing AVB patients.

CT hepatic arterial perfusion index does not allow stratification of the degree of esophageal varices and bleeding risk in cirrhotic patients in Child-Pugh classes A and B

Purpose

To evaluate if the hepatic arterial perfusion index (HPI) in liver parenchyma of cirrhotic patients can serve as a surrogate parameter for stratifying the degree of esophageal varices and related bleeding risks.

Methods

CT image data of sixty-six patients (59 men; mean age 68 years ± 10 years) with liver cirrhosis (Child–Pugh class A (35/66, 53%), B (25/66, 38%), and C (6/66, 9%) who underwent perfusion CT (PCT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening between April 2010 and January 2019 were retrospectively identified. HPI, a parameter calculated by a commercially available CT liver perfusion analysis software that is based on the double maximum slope model, using time attenuation curve to determine perfusion, was correlated with the degree of esophageal varices diagnosed at endoscopy and the number of bleeding events.

Results

Eta correlation coefficient for HPI/presence of esophageal varices was very weak (0.083). Spearman-Rho for HPI/grading of esophageal varices was very weak (0.037 (p = 0.804)). Kendall-Tau-b for HPI/grading of esophageal varices was very weak (0.027 (p = 0.807)). ANOVA and Bonferroni post-hoc-tests showed no significant difference of HPI between different grades of esophageal varices (F (3, 62) = 1.676, p = 0.186). Eta correlation coefficient for HPI/bleeding event was very weak (0.126).

Conclusion

The stratification of the degree of esophageal varices and the related bleeding risk by correlation with the HPI as a surrogate parameter for portal venous hypertension was not possible for patients with liver cirrhosis in Child–Pugh class A and B.

Graphic abstract

Impact of acute kidney injury on mortality in patients with acute variceal bleeding

Background

The effect of acute kidney injury (AKI) on patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) using the recently proposed International Club of Ascites (ICA) criteria is unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the incidence of AKI using the ICA criteria and factors associated with the outcomes in cirrhotic patients with AVB.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included data of cirrhotic patients with AVB from two centers in Korea. The association of the ICA criteria for AKI with 6-week mortality was analyzed through univariate and multivariate analyses using the Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

In total, there were 546 episodes of AVB in 390 patients, of which 425 and 121 episodes were due to esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding, respectively. Moreover, 153 patients fulfilled the ICA criteria for AKI, and 64, 30, 39, and 20 patients were diagnosed with stages 1a, 1b, 2, and 3, respectively. Conversely, 97 patients developed AKI within 42 days as per the conventional criteria. The 6-week mortality rate was significantly higher in patients with ICA-AKI than in patients without ICA-AKI; the occurrence of ICA-AKI was an independent factor for predicting the 6-week mortality.

Conclusion

The ICA criteria could help diagnose renal dysfunction earlier, and presence of AKI is a predictor of mortality in patients with cirrhosis and AVB.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-021-01862-x.

Bedside risk-scoring model for predicting 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing endoscopic band ligation for acute variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a fatal adverse event of cirrhosis, and endoscopic band ligation (EBL) is the standard treatment for AVB. We developed a novel bedside risk-scoring model to predict the 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing EBL for AVB.

METHODS

Cox regression analysis was used to assess the relationship of clinical, biological, and endoscopic variables with the 6-week mortality risk after EBL in a derivation cohort (n = 1373). The primary outcome was the predictive accuracy of the new model for the 6-week mortality in the validation cohort. Moreover, we tested the adequacy of the mortality risk-based stratification and the discriminative performance of our new model in comparison with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease scores in the validation cohort (n = 200).

RESULTS

On multivariate Cox regression analysis, five objective variables (use of beta-blockers, hepatocellular carcinoma, CTP class C, hypovolemic shock at initial presentation, and history of hepatic encephalopathy) were scored to generate a 12-point risk-prediction model. The model stratified the 6-week mortality risk in patients as low (3.5%), intermediate (21.1%), and high (53.4%) (P < 0.001). Time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 6-week mortality showed that this model was a better prognostic indicator than the CTP class alone in the derivation (P < 0.001) and validation (P < 0.001) cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

A simplified scoring model with high potential for generalization refines the prediction of 6-week mortality in high-risk cirrhotic patients, thereby aiding the targeting and individualization of treatment strategies for decreasing the mortality rate.

Retrograde transvenous obliteration for the prevention of variceal rebleeding in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicentre retrospective study

AIM

To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of retrograde transvenous obliteration (RTO) for the prevention of variceal rebleeding variceal rebleeding in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This multicentre retrospective study enrolled 79 patients with HCC who underwent RTO for the prevention of variceal rebleeding. Successful occlusion of the gastrorenal shunt and obliteration of the gastric varices were achieved in 74 patients, with a technical success rate of 93.7%. Of the remaining 74 patients (mean age, 64.9±10.3 years; 56 men), 66 (90.4%) had gastroesophageal varices and seven (9.6%) had isolated gastric varices. Thirty-two patients (43.8%) underwent balloon-occluded RTO, 40 patients (54.8%) underwent plug-assisted RTO, and one patient (1.4%) underwent coil-assisted RTO. No patients had major procedural complications.

RESULTS

Rebleeding occurred in seven patients (9.6%) during the follow-up period. The 6-week and 1-year actuarial probabilities of patients remaining free of rebleeding were 90.8±3.6% and 88.6±4.1%, respectively. The median survival was 12.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 8-17.3) months. The 6-week, 1-year, and 3-year actuarial probabilities of survival were 83.2±4.4%, 51.1±6.6%, and 32.7±7%, respectively. New or worsening ascites and oesophageal varices occurred in 12 (16.4%) and 13 patients (17.8%), respectively, during the follow-up period. Overt hepatic encephalopathy occurred in one patient (1.4%) during the follow-up period. The Child-Pugh score remained comparable to that at baseline at 1 and 3 months.

CONCLUSION

RTO was effective and safe in preventing variceal rebleeding in patients with HCC.

Prognosis of endotherapy versus splenectomy and devascularization for variceal bleeding in patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to compare the long-term outcome of endotherapy versus a combination of splenectomy and devascularization for variceal bleeding in patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis (HBRC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 1074 patients with HBRC and acute variceal bleeding (AVB) treated with endotherapy and 248 patients with HBRC treated with a combination of splenectomy and devascularization surgery were included in the analysis. After one-to-one propensity score matching, 151 paired patients were selected. The primary end-point was death. The secondary outcomes were 3-year survival, 5-year survival, and rebleeding. Complications were recorded.

RESULTS

The median follow-up time was 1165 days in the endoscopic group and 1709 days in the surgical group. Before matching, the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival rates were significantly lower in the endoscopic group than in the surgical group (91.1 vs 96.3%, P = 0.017; 79.6 vs 91.6%, P = 0.001; 65.2 vs 81.3%, P = 0.001). After matching, no significant differences were found between groups (94.5 vs 95.2%, P = 0.767; 87.0 vs 88.9%, P = 0.635; 77.9 vs 77.9%, P = 0.905). The rebleeding rate was lower in the surgical group than in the endoscopic group; the rebleeding-free survival rate was similar in the two groups. No patient died of complications. No statistically significant difference was observed in complications between groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Both endotherapy and a combination of splenectomy and devascularization are good choices for patients with AVB. The rebleeding rate was lower after the surgical procedure, but the long-term prognosis was similar.

Clinical, neuropsychological and neurophysiological indices and predictors of hepatic encephalopathy (HE)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The occurrence of overt hepatic encephalopathy (HE) marks a significant progression in the natural history of liver disease. The aims of the present study were to: 1) describe a large cohort of patients with cirrhosis in terms of neuropsychological or neurophysiological HE indices, and 2) test if the severity of liver disease and/or any such indices [Psychometric Hepatic Encephalopathy Score (PHES), Scan test, electroencephalography (EEG)] predicted mortality/HE risk in a subgroup of such cohort.

METHOD

Four hundred and sixty-one patients with cirrhosis (59 ± 10 years; 345 males) were included; information on previous overt HE episodes was available in 407. Follow-up information on mortality/HE-related hospitalization in 134/127 respectively. Information on previous overt HE episodes and both mortality and HE-related hospitalization over the follow-up in 124.

RESULTS

Patients with a history of overt HE (60%) had poorer liver function, worse neuropsychiatric indices, higher ammonia levels and higher prevalence of portal-systemic shunt. The risk of HE-related hospitalization over the follow-up was higher in patients with higher MELD score and worse Scan performance. Mortality was higher in those with higher MELD. Among patients without a history of overt HE, those with worse PHES had higher HE risk. Among patients with a history, those with higher MELD, better PHES and worse Scan performance had higher HE risk.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients without previous overt HE episodes, neuropsychological and neurophysiological tests predict HE, while in those with previous overt HE episodes, HE development largely depends on the severity of liver dysfunction.

Treatment Outcomes and Prognostic Factors of Acute Variceal Bleeding in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background/Aims

The treatment outcomes and prognostic markers of acute variceal bleeding (AVB) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients remain unclear. Therefore, we evaluated the clinical outcomes and prognostic factors of AVB in HCC patients.

Methods

Cirrhotic patients with endoscopically confirmed AVB between 2007 and 2013 were enrolled in this prospective study. Prognostic factors were identified by multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.

Results

Among the 329 enrolled patients, 125 patients (38.0%) were diagnosed with HCC. The 6-week mortality rates of all enrolled AVB patients and the HCC subgroup were 14.9% and 26.4%. The 5-day treatment failure, 6-week mortality, cirrhosis-related complications, and duration of hospitalization were greater in HCC patients than in non-HCC patients (all p<0.05). In the HCC subgroup, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score (hazard ratio [HR], 1.145; p=0.001) and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage (C-D vs 0-B) (HR, 3.096; p=0.019) were independent predictors of 6-week mortality. Our study revealed that 85% of HCC patients with both a MELD score ≥15.5 and BCLC stage C-D died within 6 weeks, and the 6-week mortality risk was 21-fold higher in this group than in the group with a lower MELD score and earlier HCC stage (p<0.001).

Conclusions

The 5-day treatment failure and 6-week mortality rates were significantly higher among AVB patients with HCC than those without HCC. The MELD score and the presence and stage of HCC are strong predictors of 6-week mortality in patients with AVB.

Optimal endoscopy timing in patients with acute variceal bleeding: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Although current guidelines recommend performing endoscopy within 12 hours for acute variceal bleeding (AVB), the optimal timing remains controversial. This study aimed to assess the effect of endoscopy timing on the mortality and rebleeding rates in AVB through a systematic review and meta-analysis of all eligible studies. PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Embase were searched for relevant publications up to January 2019. Overall mortality, rebleeding rate, and other clinical outcomes were determined. For the non-randomized studies, the risk of bias assessment tool was used to assess the methodological quality of the included publications. The Mantel-Haenszel random-effects model of the RevMan software (Cochrane) and the inverse variance method were used to analyse binary end points and continuous outcomes, respectively. This meta-analysis included five studies with 854 and 453 participants who underwent urgent (≤12 hours) and non-urgent endoscopies (>12 hours), respectively. All the included studies were retrospective in nature, because of obvious ethical issues. No significant differences in the severity indexes were found between the urgent and non-urgent groups. Three studies showed 6-week mortality and the others in-hospital mortality as main outcomes. No significant difference in overall mortality rate was found between the groups (odds ratio [OR]: 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.36-1.45, p = 0.36). The rebleeding rate was similar between the two groups (OR: 1.21, 95% CI: 0.76-1.93, p = 0.41). Other outcomes such as successful haemostasis, need for salvage therapy, length of hospital stay, and number of blood transfusions were also similar between the groups. We demonstrated that endoscopy timing does not affect the mortality or rebleeding rate of patients with AVB. Therefore, an appropriate timing of endoscopy would be more important than an urgent endoscopy depending on each patient's condition.

Optimal endoscopy timing according to the severity of underlying liver disease in patients with acute variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines recommend endoscopic therapy to be performed within 12 h for acute variceal bleeding (AVB). However, the optimal timing of endoscopic therapy for AVB remains unclear.

AIMS

To examine the relationship between the endoscopy timing and clinical outcomes in AVB, with emphasis on liver function and endoscopy timing.

METHODS

From January 2010 to June 2017, cirrhotic patients with AVB confirmed by endoscopy were evaluated. The primary outcome was a composite of 6-week rebleeding and mortality. We stratified patients according to the MELD score.

RESULTS

In 411 patients, the overall composite outcome rate was 30.9% (n = 127) at 6 week. Patients who underwent urgent endoscopy (≤12 h) had a significantly higher composite outcome than patients who underwent non-urgent endoscopy (>12 h) (34.4% vs. 19.1%; P = 0.005). Low-risk patients who underwent urgent endoscopy were more likely to reach the composite outcome (adjusted OR, 0.84 per 4 h; 95% CI, 0.73-0.98; P = 0.027). These findings persisted even after adjustment for baseline characteristics between the urgent and non-urgent groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Urgent endoscopy is significantly associated with a poorer outcome in patients with AVB, especially in low-risk patients. Our result provides a treatment strategy according to the severity of underlying liver disease in patients with AVB.

Clinical Factors Associated with Mortality in Cirrhotic Patients Presenting with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Background

Whether certain clinical or laboratory characteristics are able to differentiate cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeds (UGIB) at high-risk inpatient mortality is unknown. The objective of this study is to elucidate patient factors at presentation that are associated with in-hospital mortality.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of cirrhotic patients presenting with UGIB was performed. Baseline characteristics at admission including demographics, clinical and laboratory characteristics were collected. Factors associated with in-hospital mortality were evaluated with logistic regression analyses. The discriminative power of MELD score was evaluated with the use of area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results

One hundred and sixteen patients were included in this study. MELD score at presentation was higher in the death cohort (24.0 versus 14.8, P < 0.001) and remained significantly associated with mortality after multivariable adjustment (P < 0.001). ROC analysis of MELD score for death yielded an area under the curve of 0.88. At admission, the death group had lower systolic blood pressure (103 mmHg versus 123 mmHg, P=0.008 and more frequently presented with bright red blood per rectum (46.7% versus 11.9%, P = 0.003). Bilirubin and international normalized ratio were also higher, and albumin was lower in patients who died.

Conclusions

Among cirrhotic patients presenting with UGIB, the severity of symptoms and impairment in hepatic synthetic function is associated with in-hospital mortality. Admission MELD score may be useful in predicting in-hospital mortality.

Clinical Outcome and Predictive Factors of Variceal Bleeding in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Thailand

Objective:

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is common cancer in ASEAN. Variceal bleeding (VB) is considered to be fatal complication of cirrhosis with HCC. However, limited studies were reported in ASEAN. Aim of this study was to evaluate overall survival rate and predictors of VB in HCC patients.

Methods:

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of HCC patients aged ≥15 years between January 2012-January 2016 and follow up through June 2016 at Thammasat University Hospital, Thailand. Clinical information and radiologic findings were collected from reviewing computer database of medical records.

Results:

333 patients had completely retrievable information. Of which, 27 patients (8.1%) had documented with VB. Clinical presentations with weight loss and jaundice were higher in VB than non-VB groups (40.74% vs. 34.64%, p=0.525 and 7.41% vs. 2.29%, p=0.116) but the differences were not significant. The most common causes of cirrhosis in HCC patients with VB were chronic HBV infection (55.56%). In multivariate analysis; presence of ascites, Child-Pugh score>6, presence of varices were independent risk factors of having VB in HCC patients (OR=7.59, 95%CI=1.13-50.88, p=0.037; OR=5.07, 95%CI=1.08-23.76, p=0.039; OR=23.51, 95%CI=4.71-117.35, p<0.001, respectively). In HCC patients with VB, 1-year and 2.5-year survival rates were 56.6% and 28.3%.

Conclusions:

HCC patients with ascites, Child-Pugh score>6 and presence of varices might be important predictive factors of VB. Having VB were greatly impact to the survival rate of HCC patients. Clinical suspicion and regular surveillance of VB in HCC patients at risk could improve treatment outcomes.

On-Treatment Improvement of MELD Score Reduces Death and Hepatic Events in Patients With Hepatitis B-Related Cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

Antiviral treatment modifies the natural history of chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related cirrhosis as reflected by improving Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score over time. We evaluated the impact of on-treatment change of MELD score on clinical outcomes in patients with CHB-related cirrhosis.

METHODS

Cirrhotic CHB patients who received entecavir and/or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate for at least 6 months in Hong Kong between 2005 and 2016 were identified. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality; secondary outcomes were hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and hepatic events including ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, variceal bleeding, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatic encephalopathy, and liver transplantation.

RESULTS

We identified 1743 cirrhotic CHB patients. Their mean MELD score decreased from 12.3 ± 5.5 at baseline to 11.0 ± 4.7 at month 6. At a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 3.9 (1.9-6.0) years, 290 (16.6%) patients died; 201 (11.5%) developed HCC. Among 1140 patients without prior hepatic events, 150 (13.2%) developed hepatic events. Among 464 patients with baseline MELD score ≥15, the 6-year cumulative mortality was 72.8, 36.7, and 23.1% for unchanged or increased MELD score, 1-5 point improvement in MELD score, and >5 point improvement in MELD score at month 6, respectively (log-rank test, P < 0.001); the corresponding 6-year cumulative incidence of hepatic events was 52.7, 30.5, and 23.9% in the three subgroups (Gray's test, P = 0.004). Patients with MELD score <15 at month 6 had lower risk of mortality and hepatic events (all P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

On-treatment improvement of MELD score correlates with reduced risk of mortality and hepatic events in cirrhotic CHB patients.

Assessment of prognostic performance of Albumin-Bilirubin, Child-Pugh, and Model for End-stage Liver Disease scores in patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

OBJECTIVE

The Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) score was developed recently to assess the severity of liver dysfunction. We aimed to assess its prognostic performance in patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) while comparing it with Child-Pugh (CP) and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This was a retrospective unicentric study, including consecutive adult patients with cirrhosis admitted for UGIB between January 2011 and November 2015. Clinical, analytical, and endoscopic variables were assessed and ALBI, CP, and MELD scores at admission were calculated.

RESULTS

This study included 111 patients. During the first 30 days of follow-up, 12 (10.8%) patients died, and during the first year of follow-up, another 10 patients died (first-year mortality of 19.8%).On comparing the three scores, for in-stay and 30-day mortality, only the ALBI score showed statistically significant results, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 (P<0.01) for both outcomes. For first-year mortality, AUC for ALBI, CP, and MELD scores were 0.71 (P<0.01), 0.64 (P<0.05), and 0.66 (P=0.02), respectively, whereas for global mortality, AUC were 0.75 (P<0.01), 0.72 (P<0.01), and 0.72 (P<0.01), respectively. On comparing the AUC of the three scores, no significant differences were found in first-year mortality and global mortality.

CONCLUSION

In our series, the ALBI score accurately predicted both in-stay and 30-day mortality, whereas CP and MELD scores could not predict these outcomes. All scores showed a fair prognostic prediction performance for first-year and global mortality. These results suggest that the ALBI score is particularly useful in the assessment of short-term outcomes, with a better performance than the most commonly used scores.

Acute kidney injury predicts mortality in cirrhotic patients with gastric variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The International Club of Ascites (ICA) recently proposed a new definition of acute kidney injury (AKI) in cirrhotic patients. The study evaluated the ICA-AKI criteria and their association with the prognosis of cirrhotic patients with gastric variceal bleeding (GVB).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using prospective database of cirrhotic patients hospitalized with the first presentation of acute GVB at Taipei Veterans General Hospital from April 2007 to December 2010 was performed to evaluate the development of AKI. The study used Cox proportional hazards model to examine the association of ICA-AKI criteria and mortality.

RESULTS

Of 113 patients, 46 (41%) fulfilled the ICA-AKI criteria and most (70%) initially had stage 1 AKI. Child-Pugh score, systemic blood pressure at admission, and number of blood units transfused before endoscopy were independent predictors of AKI. Among patients with AKI, 30% progressed to higher stages with more advanced liver disease, lower serum sodium, more units of blood transfusion, higher frequency of infection, and higher serum creatinine levels at diagnosis of AKI. The 6-week mortality rate was significantly higher in patients with AKI than in patients without AKI (37% vs 3%, P < 0.001), and AKI stages were independent predictors of 3-month survival (93% in patients without AKI, 73% in stage 1, and 30% in stages 2 and 3, P = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

The occurrence of AKI as defined by the ICA criteria is common in cirrhotic patients with acute GVB. The presence of AKI was associated with much higher 6-week mortality, and the stages of AKI further predicted 3-month survival.

Application of chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment score for the predication of mortality after esophageal variceal hemorrhage post endoscopic ligation

BACKGROUND

Esophageal variceal hemorrhage (EVH) is one of the high mortality complications in cirrhotic patients. Endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) is currently the standard therapy for EVH. However, some patients have expired during hospitalization or survived shortly after management.

AIM

To evaluate hospital and 6-week mortality by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) score compared to a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected 714 cirrhotic patients with EVH post EVL between July 2010 and June 2016 at Taitung MacKay Memorial Hospital, Taiwan. CLIF-SOFA score, MELD score, and CTP class were calculated for all patients admitted.

RESULTS

Among the 714 patients, the overall hospital and 6-week mortality rates were 6.9% (49/715) and 13.1% (94/715) respectively. For predicting hospital death, area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values of CLIF-SOFA score, MELD score, and CTP class were 0.964, 0.876, and 0.846. For predicting 6-week death, AUROC values of CLIF-SOFA score, MELD score, and CTP class were 0.943, 0.817, and 0.834. CLIF-SOFA score had higher AUROC value with statistical significance under pairwise comparison than did MELD score and CTP class in prediction of not only hospital but also 6-week mortality. The history of hepatocellular carcinoma was the risk factor for 6-week mortality. For patients with hepatocellular carcinoma the cut-point of CLIF-SOFA score was 5.5 for 6-week mortality and 6.5 for hospital mortality on admission. For patients without hepatocellular carcinoma, the cut-point of CLIF-SOFA score was 6.5 for both 6-week and hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION

CLIF-SOFA score predicted post-EVL prognosis well. For patients without hepatocellular carcinoma, CLIF-SOFA score ≥6 suggests higher 6-week mortality and CLIF-SOFA score ≥7 suggests higher hospital mortality. For patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, CLIF-SOFA score ≥7 suggests higher 6-week and hospital mortality.

Usefulness of the Glasgow-Blatchford score to predict 1-week mortality in patients with esophageal variceal bleeding

OBJECTIVES

Esophageal variceal bleeding is one of the most severe complications of liver cirrhosis, with high mortality. However, there is no established scoring system for short-term mortality in patients with esophageal variceal bleeding. The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, and the Child-Pugh score for predicting short-term and hospital mortality in patients with esophageal variceal bleeding.

METHODS

A total of 47 patients with esophageal variceal bleeding were studied between September 2009 and March 2015. The GBS, the MELD score, and the Child-Pugh score were assessed for their ability to predict 1- and 6-week mortality rates using a receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

The 1- and 6-week mortality rates were 17.0 and 31.9%, respectively. The median GBS, MELD, and Child-Pugh scores were 13 (range: 4-19), 10 (range: 0-34), and 9 (range: 5-13), respectively. The GBS was superior to both the MELD and the Child-Pugh scores for prediction of 1-week mortality [area under the curve=0.82 (95% confidence interval: 0.66-0.98) vs. 0.71 (0.47-0.96) and 0.72 (0.53-0.91)]. The MELD score was superior to both the Child-Pugh score and the GBS for prediction of 6-week mortality [area under the curve=0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.97) vs. 0.69 (0.52-0.85) and 0.67 (0.50-0.83)].

CONCLUSION

For 1-week mortality, the GBS was superior to the Child-Pugh and the MELD scores in patients with esophageal variceal bleeding. However, for 6-week mortality, the MELD score was superior in patients with esophageal variceal bleeding.

Incidence of HCV induced-Esophageal varices in Egypt: Valuable knowledge using data mining analysis

Esophageal varices is one of the most important comorbidity related liver cirrhosis, patients usually presented with hematemesis, melena, or both, ultimately 20% is the mortality during the first attack, hence we aimed to investigate the incidence of such esophageal varices related chronic Hepatitis C virus (HCV) in randomized Egyptian population.One thousand eighteen Egyptian patients, aged between 17 and 58 years, positive for Hepatitis C virus genotype 4 (HCV-4) by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay Ab and HCV RNA-polymerase chain reaction were screened for the presence of esophageal varices.Incidence of esophageal varices was 62.3%; 635 patients, those with large Esophageal varices (LEVs) was 47.4%; 301 patients. Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score has not been significantly improved post variceal band ligation (VBL). Using 2D U/S was useful for EVs prediction.Incidence of esophageal varices in HCV Egyptian patients still high, valuable knowledge would be helpful in clinical field have been discovered by data mining computational intelligent analysis using in practical medicine to improve overall health care.

Hepatic vein transit time of second-generation ultrasound contrast agent: new tool in the assessment of portal hypertension

PURPOSE

It has been demonstrated that Doppler waveform of the hepatic vein (normally triphasic) is transformed into a biphasic or monophasic waveform in cirrhotic patients. The compressive mechanism of liver tissue has been considered up till now the cause of this change. Moreover, cirrhotics show, after USCA injection, a much earlier HVTT due to intrahepatic shunts. Our aim was to prospectively evaluate the correlation between Doppler pattern of hepatic vein and HVTT of a second-generation USCA; we also correlated HVTT with the most common indexes of portal hypertension.

METHODS

We enrolled 38 participants: 33 cirrhotics and 5 healthy controls. Doppler shift signals were obtained from the right hepatic vein. To characterize the hepatic vein pattern, we used the hepatic vein waveform index (HVWI). This index becomes >1 with the appearance of the triphasic waveform. We recorded a clip from 20 s before to 2 min after a peripheral intravenous bolus injection of 2.4 ml of USCA (sulfur hexafluoride).The time employed by USCA to cross the liver from the hepatic artery and portal vein to the hepatic vein was defined as HA-HVTT and PV-HVTT, respectively.

RESULTS

Cirrhotics with low HVWI showed an earlier transit time; participants with higher HVWI had a longer transit time (p < 0.001). HVTT was earlier as MELD, Child-Pugh score and spleen diameter increased. Patients with ascites and varices of large size had significantly shorter transit times.

CONCLUSIONS

Abnormal hepatic vein Doppler waveform in cirrhotic patients could be due to intrahepatic shunts. HVTT could be useful in the non-invasive evaluation of portal hypertension.

Primary Prophylaxis for Variceal Bleeding and the Improved Survival of Patients with Newly Diagnosed Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We evaluated the impact of primary variceal bleeding prophylaxis on long-term outcomes of patients newly diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of 898 patients newly diagnosed with HCC without a history of variceal bleeding [age 57.4 ± 10.4, males 718 (80.0 %)] were analyzed for new onset variceal bleeding during follow-up.

RESULTS

Variceal bleeding occurred in 72 patients (8.0 %) during follow-up. The presence of portal vein thrombosis [hazard ratio (HR) 3.90; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 2.09-7.30; p < 0.001] and the presence of the red color sign or ≥grade 2 varices at index endoscopy (HR 7.64; 95 % CI 4.56-12.80; p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for variceal bleeding. The occurrence of variceal bleeding was an independent risk factor for mortality (HR 1.39; 95 % CI 1.06-1.82; p = 0.015). The cumulative incidence rate of variceal bleeding at 1 year was 2.1, 15.3, and 34.2 % for those non-indicated for primary prophylaxis (n = 760), indicated for primary prophylaxis and received prophylaxis (n = 98), and indicated for primary prophylaxis but did not received prophylaxis (n = 40) (p < 0.001). Primary prophylaxis for variceal bleeding for indicated patients was associated with a reduced risk of mortality in all patients (HR 0.54; 95 % CI 0.33-0.88; p = 0.014) and in propensity-matched patients (HR, 0.54; 95 % CI 0.31-0.95; p = 0.033).

CONCLUSION

Variceal bleeding was independent risk factor for survival of newly diagnosed HCC patients. Screening and providing primary prophylaxis for indicated patients should be considered for patients with HCC.

Determinants of esophageal varices bleeding in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Sorafenib is the standard of care for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), yet treatment safety may be challenged by portal hypertension. We therefore assessed the prevalence, risk factors and clinical consequences of esophageal varices (EVs) in sorafenib-treated patients with HCC.

METHODS

Starting in 2008, all compensated patients with advanced or intermediate HCC not eligible for other therapies were consecutively enrolled in a prospective evaluation of sorafenib therapy, all with pretreatment by upper-gastrointestinal endoscopy (UGE).

RESULTS

A total of 150 patients received sorafenib for 4.6 (95% CI, 3.3-5.6) months. At baseline, 61 (41%) patients were EV free (group A), 78 (52%) had EVs (61 small EVs (group B), 17 medium/large EVs (group C)) and 11 (7%) previously endoscopically treated EVs (group D). Propranolol was given to all patients with medium/large EVs and those with previous bleeding. Twelve patients (8%) bled from EVs after 36 (18-260) days of sorafenib. During sorafenib, bleeding occurred in six of 26 group B patients with neoplastic portal vein thrombosis (nPVT), three of nine group C patients with nPVT, two of five group D patients with nPVT and one of six without nPVT (p < 0.0001), nPVT being the strongest independent predictor of bleeding by multivariate analysis (HR = 15.4, 95% CI 1.84-129.6).

CONCLUSION

UGE screening is worthwhile in HCC patients allocated to sorafenib since it identifies patients with EVs at risk of bleeding during therapy, particularly those with nPVT.

Predictors of In-Hospital Mortality in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and Acute Variceal bleeding

Introduction

Detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhotic patients remains a serious, unsolved problem, and the risk factors for acute variceal bleeding (AVB) in HCC patients remain unclear. This study aimed to determine the in-hospital mortality (IHM) and factors influencing the clinical outcomes of AVB in patients with liver cirrhosis and HCC.

Methods

This was a retrospective, non-randomized, clinical study that was conducted in 2014. The study was conducted on 70 patients with liver cirrhosis and HCC presenting by acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIH). All patients were examined endoscopically within 24 hours from presentation and bleeding varices accounted for AUGIH. Full medical history, clinical examination, and laboratory and radiologic data were collected from admission charts, and hospital medical records were statistically analyzed with SSPS version 22.

Results

Thirty-two patients (45.7%) survived and 38 died (54.3%). Survivors are more likely to be Child-Pugh class A or B, and the non-survivors were class C. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) was highly predictive of IHM at an optimized cut-off value of ≥ 12.9. Higher esophageal varices grades and presence of active bleeding on index endoscopy were significant (p < 0.01) in the non-survivors compared to survivors. Complications of liver cirrhosis and associated major comorbidity were significantly higher (p < 0.01) in the non-survivors than the survivors. Univariate logistic regression analysis identified higher Grade Esophageal Varices and number of transfused packed red blood cells units as two independent predictors of IHM.

Conclusions

IHM was particularly high (54.3%) among HCC patients with AVB who had MELD score > 12.9, higher grade Esophageal Varices, active bleeding on index endoscopy, more increased needs for blood transfusion, longer hospital stay, decompensated liver disease with major comorbidity.

Child-Pugh versus MELD score for predicting the in-hospital mortality of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding in liver cirrhosis

A retrospective study was conducted to compare the performance of Child-Pugh and Model for End-Stage Liver Diseases (MELD) scores for predicting the in-hospital mortality of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in patients with liver cirrhosis. A total of 145 patients with a diagnosis of liver cirrhosis and acute UGIB between July 2013 and June 2014 were retrospectively analyzed (male/female: 94/51; mean age: 56.77±11.33 years; Child-Pugh class A/B/C: 46/64/35; mean Child-Pugh score: 7.88±2.17; mean MELD score: 7.86±7.22). The in-hospital mortality was 8% (11/145). Areas under receiving-operator characteristics curve (AUROC) for predicting the in-hospital mortality were compared between MELD and Child-Pugh scores. AUROCs for predicting the in-hospital mortality for Child-Pugh and MELD scores were 0.796 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.721-0.858) and 0.810 (95% CI: 0.736-0.870), respectively. The discriminative ability was not significant different between the two scoring systems (P=0.7241). In conclusion, Child-Pugh and MELD scores were similar for predicting the in-hospital mortality of acute UGIB in cirrhotic patients.

Risk factors for early rebleeding and mortality in acute variceal hemorrhage

AIM: To investigate the risk factors for 6-wk rebleeding and mortality in acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH) patients treated by percutaneous transhepatic variceal embolization (PTVE).

METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of AVH patients who had undergone PTVE treatment was conducted between January 2010 and December 2012. Demographic information, medical histories, physical examination findings, and laboratory test results were collected. The PTVE procedure was performed as a rescue therapy for patients who failed endoscopic and pharmacologic treatment. Survival analysis was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. The multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox regression test to identify independent risk factors for rebleeding and mortality.

RESULTS: One hundred and one patients were included; 71 were males and the average age was 51 years. Twenty-one patients rebled within 6 wk. Patients with high-risk stigmata, PTVE with trunk obliteration, and a hepatic vein pressure gradient (HVPG) ≥ 20 mmHg were at increased risk for rebleeding (OR = 5.279, 95%CI: 2.782-38.454, P = 0.003; OR = 4.309, 95%CI: = 2.144-11.793, P < 0.001; and OR = 1.534, 95%CI: 1.062-2.216, P = 0.022, respectively). Thirteen patients died within 6 wk. A model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score ≥ 18 and an HVPG ≥ 20 mmHg were associated with 6-wk mortality (OR = 2.162, 95%CI: 1.145-4.084, P = 0.017 and OR = 1.423, 95%CI: 1.222-1.657, P < 0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSION: MELD score and HVPG in combination allow for early identification of patients with AVH who are at substantially increased risk of death over the short term.

Higher free serum cortisol is associated with worse survival in acute variceal bleeding because of cirrhosis: a prospective study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Critical illness-related corticosteroid insufficiency has been reported in acute variceal bleeding (AVB). In cirrhosis, free serum cortisol (FC) is considered optimal to assess adrenal function. Salivary cortisol (SC) is considered a surrogate for FC. We evaluated FC and its prognostic role in AVB.

METHODS

Total serum cortisol, SC, cortisol-binding globulin, and FC (Coolens' formula) were evaluated in AVB (n=38) and in stable cirrhosis (CC) (n=31). A Cox proportional hazards model was evaluated for 6-week survival.

RESULTS

In AVB, the median FC and SC levels were higher with worse liver dysfunction [Child-Pugh (CP) A/B/C: 1.59/2.62/3.26 μg/dl, P=0.019; CPA/B/C: 0.48/0.897/1.81 μg/ml, P<0.001, respectively]. In AVB compared with CC, median total serum cortisol: 24.3 versus 11.6 μg/dl (P<0.001), SC: 0.86 versus 0.407 μg/ml (P<0.001); FC 2.4 versus 0.57 μg/dl (P<0.001). In AVB, 5-day rebleeding was 10.5%, and 6-week and total mortality were 21.1 and 23.7%, respectively. Independent associations with 6-week mortality in AVB were FC at least 3.2 μg/dl (P<0.001), hepatocellular carcinoma (P<0.001), CPC (P<0.001), and early rebleeding (P<0.001). Among patients with normal cortisol-binding globulin (n=14) and albumin (n=31), the factors were hepatocellular carcinoma (P=0.003), CP (P=0.003), and FC (P=0.036). SC was also found to be an independent predictor of 6-week mortality (P<0.001). Area under the curve of FC for predicting 6-week mortality was 0.79.

CONCLUSION

Higher FC is present in cirrhosis with AVB compared with CC and is associated independently with bleeding-related mortality. However, whether high FC solely indicates the severity of illness or whether there is significant adrenal insufficiency cannot be discerned.

Validation of a model to estimate survival in ambulatory patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a single-centre cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is determined by hepatic function and tumour extent. Recently, a new Model to Estimate Survival in Ambulatory HCC patients (MESIAH) was proposed to predict overall survival in ambulatory HCC patients. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of the MESIAH score in an independent cohort of HCC patients.

METHODS

A cohort of 1969 patients newly diagnosed with HCC at the National Cancer Center, Korea between January 2004 and December 2009 was used for validation of the MESIAH score. The model's performance was assessed using C-statistics, the likelihood ratio (LR) χ2 value and Akaike information criterion (AIC).

RESULTS

Patients in the cohort had a median age of 56 years and 83.2% were men. Hepatitis B virus infection was present in 74.6 and 81.6% had a Child-Pugh class A. The median overall survival was 21.4 months. The MESIAH score had a higher degree of discrimination, with a C-statistic of 0.792 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.782-0.803], when compared with the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system [0.665 (95% CI, 0.653-0.678), P<0.001]. The LR χ2 value and the AIC of MESIAH were also better than those of BCLC, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program, Japan Integrated Scoring and Tokyo score. The observed survival in the cohort closely matched that predicted by the MESIAH score.

CONCLUSIONS

The new prognostication model MESIAH accurately estimated the overall survival of Korean HCC patients and may be useful in future research as well as individual patient care.

Comparison of scoring systems and outcome of patients admitted to a liver intensive care unit of a tertiary referral centre with severe variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND

Acute variceal haemorrhage (AVH) is associated with significant mortality.

AIMS

To determine outcome and factors associated with hospital mortality (HM) in patients with AVH admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) and to compare outcomes of patients requiring transfer to a tertiary ICU (transfer group, TG) to a local in-patient group (LG).

METHODS

A retrospective study of all adult patients (N = 177) admitted to ICU with AVH from 2000-2008 was performed.

RESULTS

Median age was 48 years (16-80). Male represented 58%. Median MELD score was 16 (6-39), SOFA score was 8 (6-11). HM was higher in patients who had severe liver disease or critical illness measured by MELD, SOFA, APACHE II scores and number of failed organs (NFO), P < 0.05. Patients with day-1 lactate ≥ 2 mmol/L had increased HM (P < 0.001). MELD score performed as well as APACHE II, SOFA and NFO (P < 0.001) in predicting HM (AUROC = 0.84, 0.81, 0.79 and 0.82, respectively P > 0.05 for pair wise comparisons). Re-bleeding was associated with increased HM (56.9% vs. 31.6%, P = 0.002). The TG (n = 124) had less severe liver disease and critical illness and consequently had lower HM than local patients (32% vs. 57%, P = 0.002). TG patients with ≥2 endoscopies prior to transfer had increased 6-week mortality (P = 0.03). Time from bleeding to transfer ≥3 days was associated with re-bleeding (OR = 2.290, P = 0.043).

CONCLUSIONS

MELD score was comparable to ICU prognostic models in predicting mortality. Blood lactate was also predictive of hospital mortality. Delays in referrals and repeated endoscopy were associated with increased re-bleeding and mortality in this group.

Acute variceal haemorrhage in the United Kingdom: patient characteristics, management and outcomes in a nationwide audit

BACKGROUND

Despite advances in treatment, acute variceal haemorrhage remains life-threatening.

AIM

To describe contemporary characteristics, management and outcomes of patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal haemorrhage and risk factors for rebleeding and mortality.

METHODS

Multi-centre clinical audit conducted in 212 UK hospitals.

RESULTS

In 526 cases of acute variceal haemorrhage, 66% underwent endoscopy within 24h with 64% (n=339) receiving endoscopic therapy. Prior to endoscopy, 57% (n=299) received proton pump inhibitors, 44% (n=232) vasopressors and 27% (n=144) antibiotics. 73% (n=386) received red cell transfusion, 35% (n=184) fresh frozen plasma and 14% (n=76) platelets, with widely varying transfusion thresholds. 26% (n=135) experienced further bleeding and 15% (n=80) died by day 30. The Model for End Stage Liver Disease score was the best predictor of mortality (area under the receiver operating curve=0.74, P<0.001). Neither the clinical nor full Rockall scores were useful predictors of outcome. Coagulopathy was strongly associated with rebleeding (odds ratio 2.23, 95% CI 1.22-4.07, P=0.01, up to day 30) and mortality (odds ratio 3.06, 95% CI 1.29-7.26, P=0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Although mortality has improved following acute variceal haemorrhage, rebleeding rates remain appreciably high. There are notable deficiencies in the use of vasopressors and endoscopic therapy. More work is needed to understand the optimum transfusion strategies. Better risk stratification tools are required to identify patients needing more intensive support.

A MELD-based model to determine risk of mortality among patients with acute variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) have high mortality rates (15%-20%). Previously described models are seldom used to determine prognoses of these patients, partially because they have not been validated externally and because they include subjective variables, such as bleeding during endoscopy and Child-Pugh score, which are evaluated inconsistently. We aimed to improve determination of risk for patients with AVB.

METHODS

We analyzed data collected from 178 patients with cirrhosis (Child-Pugh scores of A, B, and C: 15%, 57%, and 28%, respectively) and esophageal AVB who received standard therapy from 2007 through 2010. We tested the performance (discrimination and calibration) of previously described models, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and developed a new MELD calibration to predict the mortality of patients within 6 weeks of presentation with AVB. MELD-based predictions were validated in cohorts of patients from Canada (n = 240) and Spain (n = 221).

RESULTS

Among study subjects, the 6-week mortality rate was 16%. MELD was the best model in terms of discrimination; it was recalibrated to predict the 6-week mortality rate with logistic regression (logit, -5.312 + 0.207 • MELD; bootstrapped R(2), 0.3295). MELD values of 19 or greater predicted 20% or greater mortality, whereas MELD scores less than 11 predicted less than 5% mortality. The model performed well for patients from Canada at all risk levels. In the Spanish validation set, in which all patients were treated with banding ligation, MELD predictions were accurate up to the 20% risk threshold.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a MELD-based model that accurately predicts mortality among patients with AVB, based on objective variables available at admission. This model could be useful to evaluate the efficacy of new therapies and stratify patients in randomized trials.

Predictors of early re-bleeding and mortality after acute variceal haemorrhage

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Oesophageal variceal haemorrhage is a devastating complication of portal hypertension (PHT). This study was done to determine the risk factors for re-bleeding within 5 days and mortality up to 6 weeks in patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal haemorrhage (AVH).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study included 100 patients presenting with haematemesis and/or melena due to bleeding varices. All patients were subjected to full clinical assessment, routine laboratory investigations, calculation of the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and model for end stage liver disease (MELD) scores, abdominal ultrasound and emergency upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. The patients were followed up since admission and up to 6 weeks for the occurrence of rebleeding (in the first 5days) and mortality (up to 6weeks) after the acute attack.

RESULTS

The patients were grouped into three groups: Group I: patients who survived more than 6 weeks following endoscopic management and did not rebleed during this period (75 patients). Group II: patients who died within 6 weeks of AVH (10 patients). Group III: patients who rebled or died within 5 days of AVH (15 patients). The mean MELD score was significantly higher in group II (18.29±0.66) and group III (18.73±0.89) as compared to group I (12.8±2.1) (p=0.001). Active bleeding at time of endoscopy was present in 8% of group I, 70% of group II and 53.3% of group III and the difference was statistically significant (p=0.003), while white nipple sign was present in 10.6% of group I, 90% of group II and 73.3% of group III and the difference was statistically significant (p=0.05). In conclusion high MELD score (>18), presence of active bleeding or white nipple sign at time of endoscopy are significant predictors for early rebleeding and mortality after AVH.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and liver cirrhosis-related complications

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has gained wide acceptance for predicting survival in patients undergoing liver transplantation. The strength of this score remains in the mathematical formula derived from a multivariate Cox regression analysis; it is a continuous scale and lacks a ceiling or a floor effect with a wide range of discrimination. It is based on objective, reproducible, and readily available laboratory data and the wide range of samples which have been validated. Liver cirrhosis complications such as ascites, encephalopathy, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and variceal bleeding were not considered in the MELD score underestimating their direct association with the severity of liver disease. In this regard, several recent studies have shown that clinical manifestations secondary to portal hypertension are good prognostic markers in cirrhotic patients and may add additional useful prognostic information to the current MELD. We review the feasibility of MELD score as a prognostic predictor in patients with liver cirrhosis-related complications.

Model for End-stage Liver Disease

Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, initially developed to predict survival following transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt was subsequently found to be accurate predictor of mortality amongst patents with end-stage liver disease. Since 2002, MELD score using 3 objective variables (serum bilirubin, serum creatinine, and institutional normalized ratio) has been used worldwide for listing and transplanting patients with end-stage liver disease allowing transplanting sicker patients first irrespective of the wait time on the list. MELD score has also been shown to be accurate predictor of survival amongst patients with alcoholic hepatitis, following variceal hemorrhage, infections in cirrhosis, after surgery in patients with cirrhosis including liver resection, trauma, and hepatorenal syndrome (HRS). Although, MELD score is closest to the ideal score, there are some limitations including its inaccuracy in predicting survival in 15-20% cases. Over the last decade, many efforts have been made to further improve and refine MELD score. Until, a better score is developed, liver allocation would continue based on the currently used MELD score.

Clinical applications of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) in hepatic medicine

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score incorporates serum bilirubin, creatinine, and the international normalized ratio (INR) into a formula that provides a continuous variable that is a very accurate predictor of 90-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis. It is currently utilized in the United States to prioritize deceased donor organ allocation for patients listed for liver transplantation. The MELD score is superior to other prognostic models in patients with end-stage liver disease, such as the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, since it uses only objective criteria, and its implementation in 2002 led to a sharp reduction in the number of people waiting for liver transplant and reduced mortality on the waiting list without affecting posttransplant survival. Although mainly adopted for use in patients waiting for liver transplant, the MELD score has also proved to be an effective predictor of outcome in other situations, such as patients with cirrhosis going for surgery and patients with fulminant hepatic failure or alcoholic hepatitis. Several variations of the original MELD score, involving the addition of serum sodium or looking at the change in MELD over time, have been examined, and these may slightly improve its accuracy. The MELD score does have limitations in situations where the INR or creatinine may be elevated due to reasons other than liver disease, and its implementation for organ allocation purposes does not take into consideration several conditions that benefit from liver transplantation. The application of the MELD score in prioritizing patients for liver transplantation has been successful, but further studies and legislation are required to ensure a fair and equitable system.

Delayed endoscopy increases re-bleeding and mortality in patients with hematemesis and active esophageal variceal bleeding: a cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Active bleeding is a poor prognostic indicator in patients with acute esophageal variceal bleeding. This study aimed at determining indicators of 6-week re-bleeding and mortality in patients with "active" esophageal variceal bleeding, particularly emphasizing the presenting symptoms and timing of endoscopy to define the treatment strategy.

METHODS

From July 2005 to December 2009, cirrhotic patients with endoscopy-proven active esophageal variceal bleeding were evaluated. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to determine the indicators of 6-week re-bleeding and mortality. Outcome comparisons were performed by Kaplan-Meier method and log rank test.

RESULTS

In 101 patients, the overall 6-week and 3-month re-bleeding rates were 25.7% (n=26) and 29.7% (n=30), respectively. The overall 6-week and 3-month mortality was 31.7% (n=32) and 38.6% (n=39), respectively. Door-to-endoscopy time (hr), MELD score, and portal vein thrombosis were indicators of 6-week re-bleeding, while hematemesis upon arrival, MELD score, and hepatocellular carcinoma were indicators of 6-week mortality. Overall mortality was poorer in hematemesis than in non-hematemesis patients (39.7% vs. 10.7%, p=0.007). In hematemesis patients, 6-week re-bleeding rate (18.9% vs. 38.9%, p=0.028) and mortality (27% vs. 52.8%, p=0.031) were lower in those with early (≤ 12 h) than delayed (>12h) endoscopy. In non-hematemesis patients, early and delayed endoscopy had no difference on 6-week re-bleeding rate (17.6% vs. 18.2%, p=0.944) and mortality (11.8% vs. 9.1%, p=0.861).

CONCLUSIONS

It is likely that early endoscopy (≤ 12 h) is associated with a better outcome in hematemesis patients, but a randomized trial with larger case numbers is required before making a firm conclusion.

QT interval prolongation by acute gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

QT interval prolongation is frequent in cirrhosis, and stressful conditions could further prolong QT. We aimed to test this hypothesis and, if it proved correct, to assess its prognostic meaning.

METHODS

We reviewed the clinical records of 70 consecutive cirrhotic and 40 non-cirrhotic patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding. All patients had been evaluated before bleeding (T0) and were re-evaluated at the time of bleeding (T1) and 6 weeks afterwards (T2).

RESULTS

QT corrected by heart rate (QTc) lengthened at T1, returning towards baseline values at T2 (mean ± SEM; from 415.9 ± 4.3 to 453.4 ± 4.3 to 422.2 ± 5.7 ms, P < 0.001) in cirrhotics; contrariwise, QTc did not change in non-cirrhotic patients. The 6-week mortality was 29.6% among cirrhotic patients, while no control patient died. At T1, patients who died had longer QTc (P = 0.001) and higher model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (P < 0.001) than survivors. MELD and QTc independently predicted survival. Their areas under the ROC curve were 0.88 (CI 95% 0.78-0.95) and 0.75 (CI 95% 0.63-0.85) respectively; the best cut-off values were MELD ≥20 and QTc ≥ 460 ms. Based on these factors, the 6-week mortality was: 0% for patients without risk factors, 32.1% for those with one risk factor and 70.6% for those with both (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Acute gastrointestinal bleeding further prolongs QTc in cirrhosis. This abnormality independently predicts bleeding-induced mortality. The combined measurement of QTc interval and MELD can clearly identify three patient strata at increasing risk of bleeding-related mortality, thus improving the decision-making for these patients.

Efficacy of non-selective β-blockers as adjunct to endoscopic prophylactic treatment for gastric variceal bleeding: a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Gastric variceal obturation (GVO) therapy is the current treatment of choice for gastric variceal bleeding (GVB). However, the efficacy of non-selective β-blockers (NSBB) in the secondary prevention of GVB is still debatable. This study aimed at evaluating the efficacy of additional NSBB to repeated GVO in the secondary prevention of GVB.

METHODS

From April 2007 to March 2011, 95 patients with GVB after primary hemostasis using GVO were enrolled. Repeated GVO were performed until GV eradication. Forty-eight and 47 patients were randomized into the GVO alone group (Group A) and the GVO+NSBB group (Group B), respectively. Primary outcomes in terms of re-bleeding and overall survival were analyzed by multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

After a mean follow-up of 18.10 months in group A, 26 patients bled and 20 died. In group B, 22 patients bled and 22 died after a mean follow-up of 20.29 months. The overall re-bleeding and survival rates analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method were not different between the two groups (p=0.336 and 0.936, respectively). The model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and main portal vein thrombosis (MPT) were independent determinants of re-bleeding while MPT and re-bleeding were independent factors of mortality by time-dependent Cox-regression model. Asthenia was the most common adverse event and was higher in group B (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Adding NSBB therapy to repeated GVO provides no benefit for the secondary prevention of bleeding and mortality in patients with GVB.

Risk factors for in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients with oesophageal variceal bleeding

INTRODUCTION

Oesophageal variceal bleeding (OVB) is a high mortality rate complication in patients with cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to assess the risk factors for in-hospital mortality (IHM) in cirrhotic patients with OVB.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study cohort included 102 patients (average age, 55.4 ± 12.6 years, 71.6% men) consecutively admitted to our hospital with OVB. All the patients underwent upper endoscopy within 12 h and octeotride or terlipressin therapy was started at admission and continued for 5 days. To calculate Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores, laboratory test data from blood samples taken within 6 h of admission were used.

RESULTS

The IHM was 18.6% [19 patients; confidence interval (95% CI): 11.1-26.2%]. In the univariate analysis, transfusion with 2 or more units of packed red blood cells [PRBC; P=0.038; odds ratio (OR)=7.8; 95% CI: 1.2-61.3], platelets of 100/ml or less (P=0.014; OR=3.6; 95% CI: 1.2-10.3), Child-Turcotte-Pugh score of 10 or more (P=0.002; OR=4.0; 95% CI: 1.2-13.2) and MELD of 18 or more (P=0.044; OR=2.8; 95% CI: 1.1-8.1) were associated with IHM. In the multivariate analysis, transfusion with 2 or more units of PRBC (P=0.076; OR=6.7; 95% CI: 0.82-54.8), platelets of 100/ml or less (P=0.031; OR=3.4; 95% CI: 1.1-10.6) and MELD of 18 or more (P=0.048; OR=3.2; 95% CI: 1.02-10.1) remained independently associated with IHM. Applying a receiver operating characteristic analysis, the area under the curve derived from the multivariate analysis model was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64-0.88) for IHM.

CONCLUSION

Cirrhotic patients with OVB and MELD of 18 or more, platelets of 100/ml or less and requiring transfusion of 2 or more units of PRBC were at an increased risk of IHM. Overall, the logistic regression model correctly predicts 82.2% of IHM patients.