A novel waitlist dropout score for hepatocellular carcinoma - identifying a threshold that predicts worse post-transplant survival

Enhancing the prognostic accuracy of the RETREAT score with AFP-L3 and DCP tumor markers

The RETREAT (Risk Estimation of Tumor Recurrence After Transplant) Score is a validated tool to predict post-transplant HCC recurrence risk. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) bound to Lens culinaris agglutinin (AFP-L3) and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) measured at transplant predict worse post-LT survival and may improve the RETREAT score. Our cohort comprised 284 patients transplanted for HCC who were within or downstaged to Milan, with 23 (8.1%) experiencing HCC recurrence. The modified RETREAT (mRETREAT) score assigns AFP-L3 ≥15% 2 points and DCP ≥7.5 ng/mL 3 points. Patients with a modified RETREAT score ≥4 showed a 3-year recurrence-free survival of 73.2% versus 97.8% recurrence-free survival if <4. In comparison, the original RETREAT score had a 3-year recurrence-free survival of 80.0% if ≥2 versus 98.0% if <2. mRETREAT demonstrated a superior AUC of 0.86, compared to the original RETREAT's 0.82, and enhanced calibration and accuracy with a lower Brier score (0.04). The integration of AFP-L3 and DCP into the RETREAT score appears to enhance the prediction of post-LT HCC recurrence. Given these promising results, further study in a larger multicenter cohort is warranted for empiric derivation and validation of a modified RETREAT score, including AFP-L3 and DCP.

The 2024 ILTS-ILCA consensus recommendations for liver transplantation for HCC and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

Liver transplantation (LT) provides the best long-term survival outcomes for patients with liver cancer. As a result, the field of transplant oncology has grown greatly over the past few decades, and many centers have expanded their criteria to allow increased access to LT for liver malignancies. Center-level guidelines and practices in transplant oncology significantly vary across the world, leading to debate regarding the best course of treatment for this patient population. An international consensus conference was convened by the International Liver Transplantation Society and the International Liver Cancer Association on February 1-2, 2024, in Valencia, Spain to establish a more universal consensus regarding LT for oncologic indications. The conference followed the Delphi process, followed by an external expert review. Consensus statements were accepted regarding patient assessment and waitlisting criteria, pretransplant treatment (including immunotherapy) and downstaging, living donor LT, post-LT patient management, and patient- and caregiver-related outcomes. The multidisciplinary participants in the consensus conference provided up-to-date recommendations regarding the selection and management of patients with liver cancer being considered for LT. Although participants deferred to center protocols in many cases, there was great interest in safely expanding access to LT for patients with larger tumor burden and biologically amenable lesions.

The Italian Score for Organ Allocation: A Ten-Year Monocentric Retrospective Analysis in Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The Italian Score for Organ Allocation (ISO), a transplant benefit oriented allocation system, was introduced in Italy in 2016. The main objective of this study is to identify risk factors for Drop-Out in hepatocellular (HCC) patients enlisted for LT before (Pre-ISO Era) and after ISO (ISO Era) introduction, while the secondary objective is to evaluate the survival results.

METHODS

CIFs for liver transplantation and Drop-Out were estimated and compared between eras. Factors associated with Drop-Out were identified through multivariable competing risks regression. Survival results were compared using the log-rank test.

RESULTS

Between 2011 and 2020, 410 patients with HCC were listed for LT. We observed 103 vs. 217 LT and 49 vs. 41 Drop-Outs (p < 0.001) during the Pre-ISO and ISO Era, respectively. In the multivariable analysis, ISO ([sHR] 0.43; 95%CI 0.28-0.66, p < 0.001) and Alcoholic Cirrhosis ([sHR] 0.27, 95%CI 0.11-0.70; p = 0.007) were revealed to be protective factors for Drop-Out. One year after listing, the CI for Drop-Out decreased from 13.2% to 6.2% (p = 0.02). Despite no differences observed in post-LT survival, a significant difference in the intention-to-treat survival from enlisting was found (p = 0.0019).

CONCLUSIONS

Among other factors, ISO results were protective for the Drop-Out risk in HCC patients awaiting LT, with a benefit in ITT-OS survival.

Analysis of the survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and indications for liver transplantation or hepatic resection

BACKGROUND

Hepatic resection (HR) and liver transplantation (LT) are potentially curative treatments for Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to analyze the survival of patients with HCC and indications for surgical treatment (HR or LT) in a high-volume center.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients with HCC and indications for LT or HR from May 2006 to July 2019. Analysis of overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) rates, univariate analysis and construction of a multivariable model to identify risk factors were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 744 patients with HCC were evaluated, 563 (75.6%) of whom were enrolled in waiting list for LT and 181 (24.4%) of whom underwent HR. Among the patients enrolled in the waiting list, 362 (64.3%) underwent LT, whereas 201 (35.7%) remained on the waiting list (WL). From the group of 201 patients on the waiting list, 97 (48.2%) were removed from the list due to tumor progression beyond the Milan criteria (MC), and 83 (41.3%) died while waiting for the transplant. In the WL group, 97 (48.2%) patients were removed from the list due to tumor progression beyond the MC, another 83 (41.3%) patients died while waiting for the LT. The OS rates of the LT group were 77.4%, 67.5% and 56.8%, whereas those of the WL + LT (intention-to-treat) group were 59.9%, 47.3%, and 39.9%, and the HRs were 82.8%, 49.3%, and 33.4% at 1, 5 and 10 years, respectively (p = 0.001). Donor age (p = 0.002) and cold ischemia time (p < 0.001) were independent factors related to OS in the LT group, whereas the presence of significant portal hypertension (p < 0.001), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) value (p < 0.001) and MC (p = 0.002) were independent factors for HR. The DFS rates for HR were 74.9%, 40.0% and 31.0%, and those for LT were 97.9%, 92.0% and 90.9% at 1, 5 and 10 years, respectively (p < 0.001). Higher AFP levels were identified as an independent factor for lower DFS in both groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study revealed that the OS of patients listed for LT was greater in the first year than in the second year and that the results were similar to those of the HR in an intention-to-treat analysis. However, patients who achieve LT have better long-term outcomes, especially disease-free survival.

Model of Urgency for Liver Transplantation in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Practical Model to Prioritize Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma on the Liver Transplant Waitlist

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Currently, patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the United States are assigned a uniform score relative to the median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) at transplant after a minimum 6-month waiting period. The authors developed a risk stratification model for patients with HCC using the available and objective variables at time of listing.

METHODS

Adult liver transplant candidates with approved HCC exception in the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database from 2015-2022 were identified. Cox regression analysis, as well as machine learning models (random survival forest and neural network), were used to develop models predicting waitlist dropout. Predicted waitlist dropout for patients with HCC was scaled to patients without exception using MELD 3.0.

RESULTS

There were 18,273 patients with HCC listed for liver transplant with a median MELD 3.0 of 11 (interquartile range, 8-15) and α-fetoprotein of 6 ng/mL (interquartile range, 4-17 ng/mL). Because all models performed similarly, a parsimonious Cox-based model composed of MELD 3.0, α-fetoprotein, tumor burden, and Model of Urgency for Liver Transplantation in HCC, was selected, with a C-statistic of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.74) for 6-month dropout in the validation set, outperforming previous models, including HALT-HCC (Hazard Associated with Liver Transplantation for HCC), deMELD (Dropout Equivalent MELD), and MELD-Eq (MELD Equivalent).

CONCLUSIONS

An urgency-based priority system for patients with HCC, similar to MELD for patients with chronic liver disease, is achievable with a parsimonious model incorporating α-fetoprotein, MELD 3.0, and tumor size. This approach can be applied to the liver allocation system to prioritize patients with HCC and can inform decision making regarding urgency weights for exception cases in the upcoming continuous distribution system.

Clinically Evident Portal Hypertension Is an Independent Risk Factor of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence Following Liver Transplantation

Background/Objectives: Clinically evident portal hypertension (CEPH) is a major risk factor for the development and poor outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to determine the impact of CEPH on the risk of HCC recurrence following liver transplantation (LT). Methods: A total of 129 HCC patients were included in this retrospective analysis. The definition of CEPH was based on indirect clinical features without hepatic venous pressure gradient measurement. The impact of CEPH on the post-LT risk of HCC recurrence was determined by uni- and multivariate analysis. Results: Evidence of manifest portal hypertension (PH) was associated with a higher 18F-fluorodeoxy-glucose (FDG) uptake of HCC on positron emission tomography (PET; p < 0.001) and increased serum levels of C-reactive protein (p = 0.008) and interleukin-6 (IL-6; p = 0.001). The cumulative risk of HCC recurrence at 5 years post-LT was significantly higher in the CEPH group (38.1% vs. 10.6%, p < 0.001). The eligibility for neoadjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) was comparable between both study cohorts (71.4% vs. 74.2%; p = 0.719). However, the post-interventional pathologic response rate was significantly lower in the case of PH (15.6% vs. 53.1%; p < 0.001). In addition to the Milan criteria (MC), 18F-FDG avidity on PET and serum values of IL-6 and alfa-fetoprotein, we identified CEPH as another significant and independent predictor of HCC recurrence (p = 0.008). Conclusions: CEPH correlates with an unfavorable tumor phenotype, TACE refractoriness and a risk of post-LT HCC recurrence. Therefore, the clinical features of PH should be implemented in pre-transplant risk assessment and decision-making processes.

Listing for blood type A2 donors is highly variable and impacts waitlist outcomes among blood type O liver transplantation candidates in the United States

Blood type O liver transplantation (LT) candidates in the United States face the highest waitlist mortality due to the broader compatibility of type O grafts. Although blood-type-compatible transplant is a gold standard, type O candidates might benefit from listing for A2 donors, whose antigen is known for its decreased immunogenicity. This study examined the trends and impact on waitlist outcomes of listing for A2 donors among 67 756 type O LT candidates listed between 2010 and 2023 using data from the United Network for Organ Sharing database. The number of A2-to-O LTs increased steadily, with 117 LTs performed in 2023. A total of 61.1% of type O candidates were listed as A2 donors, with considerable regional variations. Fine-Gray competing risk analysis revealed that listing for A2 donors was associated with reduced waitlist dropout rates (subdistribution hazard ratio: 0.94, P < .001) and increased transplant probabilities (subdistribution hazard ratio: 1.07, P < .001), especially in regions with longer wait times, among candidates with listing Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Na scores between 15 and 34, and candidates listed after the Acuity Circles policy implementation. These findings suggest that encouraging listing for A2 donors could improve waitlist outcomes for type O candidates.

Role of biomarkers in the diagnosis and management of HCC

For many cancers, biomarkers have served as an important tool across the cancer care continuum from risk stratification and early detection to diagnosis and treatment. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) remains one of the few validated biomarkers for patients with HCC. Although AFP has shown potential for each of these steps, its performance, when used alone, has often been suboptimal. There continue to be discordant recommendations about AFP's value when combined with ultrasound for surveillance, as well as its role in diagnostic algorithms. Conversely, high AFP levels are associated with aggressive tumor biology and survival, so it remains a key factor for the selection of candidates for liver transplant. There have been immense efforts to identify and validate additional biomarkers for each of these steps in the HCC care continuum. Indeed, biomarker panels have shown promising data for HCC risk stratification and surveillance among patients with cirrhosis, as well as prognostication and detection of minimal residual disease in patients undergoing HCC treatment. Several large prospective studies are currently ongoing to evaluate the role of these emerging biomarkers in clinical practice.

Impact of Donor CMV-Seropostive Grafts on Prognosis of Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Studies investigating the impact of donor cytomegalovirus (CMV) positivity on the prognosis of liver transplantation (LT) recipients with HCC are currently lacking. A total of 21 759 eligible LT recipients were identified in the UNOS database between January 2002 and June 2023. The patients were divided into the donor CMV-seronegative (n = 7575) and CMV-seropositive (n = 14 814) groups. Moreover, the subgroup analyses by recipient age and gender were conducted. All patients were also divided into 18-40 (n = 271), 40-60 (n = 9538), and ≥ 60 (n = 11 950) groups, male (n = 16 954) and female (n = 4805) groups, respectively. Patients in the donor CMV-seropositive group had shorter overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) compared to those in the donor CMV-seronegative group (both p < 0.001). Donor CMV seropositivity was proved to be a risk factor for OS and DFS (both p = 0.001). Patients receiving CMV-seropositive liver grafts had shorter OS and DFS in the 40-60 and ≥ 60 groups (all p < 0.05). Patients receiving CMV-seropositive liver grafts had shorted OS and DFS only in the male group (both p < 0.001). The receipt of donor CMV-seropositive liver grafts is associated with shorter survival and a higher risk of HCC recurrence in LT recipients with HCC. These adverse effects are influenced by recipient age and gender.

Survival benefit associated with liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma based on tumor burden scores at listing

INTRODUCTION

Liver transplantation (LT) provides significant survival benefits to patients with unresectable HCC. In the United States, organ allocation policies for HCCs within the United Network for Organ Sharing criteria do not prioritize patients based on their differences in oncological characteristics. This study assessed whether transplant-associated survival benefits (TASBs) vary among patients with different tumor burden scores (TBS) measured at the time of listing.

METHODS

We analyzed data from adults applying for HCC MELD exception points between 2002 and 2019, with follow-up until December 2023, using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. TBS was determined based on the largest tumor diameter and number of HCCs. Patients were categorized into low (≤3), intermediate (3.1-5), and high (>5) TBS groups. TASB was measured as the difference in 5-year survival with and without LT.

RESULTS

This study included 36,634 LT candidates. High-TBS patients had higher waitlist dropout rates and marginally lower post-transplant survival, resulting in a significantly greater TASB. The 5-year TASB for the low, intermediate, and high TBS groups were 15.7, 22.1, and 25.0 months, respectively. The adjusted survival benefit expressed in 5-year survival differences was 21.9%, 34.5%, and 39.4% in the low, intermediate, and high TBS groups, respectively (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher TBS during listing correlates with greater LT benefits for patients with unresectable HCC within UNOS criteria. We conclude that organ allocation policies in the United States should prioritize patients with high TBS due to their increased risk of dropout and comparable post-transplant survival when compared to patients with less advanced tumors.

First consensus document of waiting list prioritization for liver transplantation by the Spanish Society of Liver Transplantation (SETH)

Spain is worldwide leader in deceased donation rates per million habitants and count on a strong network of twenty-five liver transplant institutions. Although the access to liver transplantation is higher than in other countries, approximately 10% of patients qualifying for liver transplantation in Spain will die in the waiting list or would be excluded due to clinical deterioration. A robust waiting list prioritization system is paramount to grant the sickest patients with the first positions in the waiting list for an earlier access to transplant. In addition, the allocation policy may not create or perpetuate inequities, particularly in a public and universal healthcare system. Hitherto, Spain lacks a unique national allocation system for elective liver transplantation. Most institutions establish their own rules for liver allocation and only two autonomous regions, namely Andalucía and Cataluña, share part of their waiting list within their territory to provide regional priority to patients requiring more urgent transplantation. This heterogeneity is further aggravated by the recently described sex-based disparities for accessing liver transplantation in Spain, and by the expansion of liver transplant indications, mainly for oncological indications, in absence of clear guidance on the optimal prioritization policy. The present document contains the recommendations from the first consensus of waiting list prioritization for liver transplantation issued by the Spanish Society of Liver Transplantation (SETH). The document was supported by all liver transplant institutions in Spain and by the Organización Nacional de Trasplantes (ONT). Its implementation will allow to homogenize practices and to improve equity and outcomes among patients with end-stage liver disease.

Continuous Risk Score Predicts Waitlist and Post-transplant Outcomes in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Despite Exception Changes

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Continuous risk-stratification of candidates and urgency-based prioritization have been utilized for liver transplantation (LT) in patients with non-hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the United States. Instead, for patients with HCC, a dichotomous criterion with exception points is still used. This study evaluated the utility of the hazard associated with LT for HCC (HALT-HCC), an oncological continuous risk score, to stratify waitlist dropout and post-LT outcomes.

METHODS

A competing risk model was developed and validated using the UNOS database (2012-2021) through multiple policy changes. The primary outcome was to assess the discrimination ability of waitlist dropouts and LT outcomes. The study focused on the HALT-HCC score, compared with other HCC risk scores.

RESULTS

Among 23,858 candidates, 14,646 (59.9%) underwent LT and 5196 (21.8%) dropped out of the waitlist. Higher HALT-HCC scores correlated with increased dropout incidence and lower predicted 5-year overall survival after LT. HALT-HCC demonstrated the highest area under the curve (AUC) values for predicting dropout at various intervals post-listing (0.68 at 6 months, 0.66 at 1 year), with excellent calibration (R2 = 0.95 at 6 months, 0.88 at 1 year). Its accuracy remained stable across policy periods and locoregional therapy applications.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the predictive capability of the continuous oncological risk score to forecast waitlist dropout and post-LT outcomes in patients with HCC, independent of policy changes. The study advocates integrating continuous scoring systems like HALT-HCC in liver allocation decisions, balancing urgency, organ utility, and survival benefit.

Recent Advances in Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

OPINION STATEMENT

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains an evolving field. Major challenges HCC transplant patients face today include liver organ donor shortages and the need for both better pre-transplant bridging/downstaging therapies and post-transplant HCC recurrence treatment options. The advent of immunotherapy and the demonstrated efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors in multiple solid tumors including advanced/unresectable HCC hold promise in expanding both the neoadjuvant and adjuvant HCC transplant treatment regimen, though caution is needed with these immune modulating agents leading up to and following transplant. New options for pre-transplant HCC management will expand access to this curative option as well as ensure patients have adequate control of their HCC prior to transplant to maximize the utility of a liver donor. Machine perfusion has been an active area of investigation in recent years and could expand the organ donor pool, helping address current liver donor shortages. Finally, additional HCC biomarkers such as AFP-L3 and DCP have shown promise in improving risk stratification of HCC patients. Together, these three recent advancements will likely alter HCC transplant guidelines in the coming years.

Predicting waitlist dropout in hepatocellular carcinoma: a narrative review

Background and Objective

Liver transplantation is the gold standard treatment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Current allocation systems face a complex issue due to the imbalance between available organs and recipients. The prioritization of HCC patients remains controversial, leading to potential disparities in access to transplantation. Factors such as tumor size, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels, Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, and response to locoregional therapy (LRT) contribute to determining waitlist dropout risk in HCC patients. Several statistical and machine learning (ML) models have been proposed to predict waitlist dropout, incorporating variables related to tumor and patient factors, underlying liver disease, and waitlist time. This narrative review aims to summarize the evidence regarding different prediction models of HCC waitlist dropout.

Methods

All published articles up to December 25, 2023, were considered. Articles not based on prediction models using conventional statistical methods or ML models were excluded.

Key Content and Findings

Factors such as tumor size, AFP levels, MELD score, and LRT response have been shown to impact disease progression in these patients, influencing waitlist dropout. Most articles in the literature are based on statistical models. Both ML and statistical models may offer promising results, but their application is currently limited. Several attempts have been made to find the best model to stratify the risk of waitlist dropout in HCC patients. However, to date, none of the explored models have been implemented. The allocation of HCC recipients is still based on supplementary scoring systems or geographical criteria.

Conclusions

Improving methodology and databases in future research is essential to obtain accurate and reliable models for clinicians. This is the only way to achieve real applicability.

Association between bridging therapy and posttransplant outcomes in patients with HCC within Milan criteria: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Liver transplantation is the curative therapy of choice for patients with early-stage HCC. Locoregional therapies are often employed as a bridge to reduce the risk of waitlist dropout; however, their association with posttransplant outcomes is unclear. We conducted a systematic review using Ovid MEDLINE and EMBASE to identify studies published between database inception and August 2, 2023, which reported posttransplant recurrence-free survival and overall survival among patients transplanted for HCC within Milan criteria, stratified by receipt of bridging therapy. Pooled HRs were calculated for each outcome using the DerSimonian and Laird method for a random-effects model. We identified 38 studies, including 19,671 patients who received and 20,148 patients who did not receive bridging therapy. Bridging therapy was not associated with significant differences in recurrence-free survival (pooled HR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.77-1.08; I2 =39%) or overall survival (pooled HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 0.95-1.24; I2 =47%). Results were relatively consistent across subgroups, including geographic location and study period. Studies were discordant regarding the differential strength of association by pretreatment tumor burden and pathologic response, but potential benefits of locoregional therapy were mitigated in those who received 3 or more treatments. Adverse events were reported in a minority of studies, but when reported occurred in 6%-15% of the patients. Few studies reported loss to follow-up and most had a risk of residual confounding. Bridging therapy is not associated with improvements in posttransplant recurrence-free or overall survival among patients with HCC within Milan criteria. The risk-benefit ratio of bridging therapy likely differs based on the risk of waitlist dropout.

Current role and perspectives of living donor liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: systematic review of the past 20 years

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) poses a significant global health challenge, and liver transplantation (LT) remains the best curative option. Living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) emerged as a potential solution to organ scarcity, reducing waitlist times. This comprehensive review explores LDLT practices, focusing on patient selection criteria and oncologic outcomes. A systematic review following PRISMA guidelines included 50 studies (2004-2023) with 8062 patients. Data encompassed baseline characteristics, HCC features, and oncologic outcomes. Further analysis categorized results by geography and publication year. Heterogeneity in patient demographics, tumor burden, and transplant characteristics was observed. Recent LDLT series demonstrated a shift towards refined selection criteria, increased neoadjuvant treatment, and improved oncologic outcomes. Geographic disparities revealed unique challenges in Eastern and Western practices. LDLT proves effective for HCC, addressing donor shortages. Evolving practices highlight the importance of refining inclusion criteria and optimizing tumor management. While geographic differences exist, LDLT, when judiciously applied, offers promising outcomes.

Geographic disparities in access to liver transplant for advanced cirrhosis: Time to ring the alarm!

Decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer are major risk factors for mortality worldwide. Liver transplantation (LT), both live-donor LT or deceased-donor LT, are lifesaving, but there are several barriers toward equitable access. These barriers are exacerbated in the setting of critical illness or acute-on-chronic liver failure. Rates of LT vary widely worldwide but are lowest in lower-income countries owing to lack of resources, infrastructure, late disease presentation, and limited donor awareness. A recent experience by the Chronic Liver Disease Evolution and Registry for Events and Decompensation consortium defined these barriers toward LT as critical in determining overall survival in hospitalized cirrhosis patients. A major focus should be on appropriate, affordable, and early cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer care to prevent the need for LT. Live-donor LT is predominant across Asian countries, whereas deceased-donor LT is more common in Western countries; both approaches have unique challenges that add to the access disparities. There are many challenges toward equitable access but uniform definitions of acute-on-chronic liver failure, improving transplant expertise, enhancing availability of resources and encouraging knowledge between centers, and preventing disease progression are critical to reduce LT disparities.

Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Narrative Review and A Glimpse into The Future

Liver transplantation (LT) is a highly effective treatment for carefully selected patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this review, we explored the development of LT selection criteria and organ allocation policies, comparing original data to underscore their historical progression into the intricate task of quantitatively estimating pre- and post-LT survivals. We emphasized the role of biomarkers such as serum alpha-fetoprotein, Des-gamma-carboxy-prothrombin, circulating tumor cells, and circulating tumor DNA in predicting patient outcomes. Additionally, we examined the transplant-associated survival benefits and the difficulties in accurately calculating these benefits. We also reviewed recent advancements in targeted therapy and checkpoint inhibitors for advanced, inoperable HCC and projected their integration into LT for HCC. We further discussed the growing use of living donor liver transplants in the United States and compared its outcomes with those of deceased donor liver transplants. Furthermore, we examined the progress in machine perfusion techniques, which have shown potential in improving patient outcomes and enlarging the donor pool. These advancements present opportunities to enhance LT patient survivals, refine selection criteria, establish new priority metrics, develop innovative bridging and downstaging strategies, and formulate redesigned LT strategies for HCC treatments.

Survival benefit from liver transplantation for patients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma

Background & Aims

In the USA, inequal liver transplantation (LT) access exists between patients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Survival benefit considers survival without and with LT and could equalise LT access. We calculated bias-corrected LT survival benefit for patients with(out) HCC who underwent a transplant, based on longitudinal data in a recent United States cohort.

Methods

Adult LT candidates with(out) HCC between 2010 and 2019 were included. Waitlist survival over time was contrasted to post-transplant survival, to estimate 5-year survival benefit from the moment of LT. Waitlist survival was modelled with a bias-corrected Cox regression, and post-transplant survival was estimated through Cox proportional hazards regression.

Results

Mean HCC survival without LT was always lower than non-HCC waitlist survival. Below model for end-stage liver disease (sodium) (MELD(-Na)) 30, patients with HCC gained more life-years from LT than patients without HCC at the same MELD(-Na) score. Only patients without HCC below MELD(-Na) 9 had negative benefit. Most patients with HCC underwent a transplant below MELD(-Na) 14, and most patients without HCC underwent a transplant above MELD(-Na) 26. Liver function [MELD(-Na), albumin] was the main predictor of 5-year benefit. Therefore, during 5 years, most patients with HCC gained 0.12 to 1.96 years from LT, whereas most patients without HCC gained 2.48 to 3.45 years.

Conclusions

On an individual level, performing a transplant in patients with HCC resulted in survival benefit. However, on a population level, benefit was indirectly decreased, as patients without HCC were likely to gain more survival owing to decreased liver function. For patients who underwent a transplant, a constructed online calculator estimates 5-year survival benefit given specific patient characteristics. Survival benefit scores could serve to equalise LT access.

Impact and implications

Benefit is a comparison of the survival with and without liver transplantation, and it is important when deciding who should undergo a transplant. Liver function is most important when predicting possible benefit from transplantation. Patients with liver cancer die sooner on the waiting list than similar patients without liver cancer. However, patients with liver cancer more often have better liver function. Most patients without liver cancer derive more benefit from transplantation than patients with liver cancer.

Prognostic models in end stage liver disease

Cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide, and is associated with significant health care costs. Even if milestones have been recently reached in understanding and managing end-stage liver disease (ESLD), the disease course remains somewhat difficult to prognosticate. These difficulties have already been acknowledged already in the past, when scores instead of single parameters have been proposed as valuable tools for short-term prognosis. These standard scores, like Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, relying on biochemical and clinical parameters, are still widely used in clinical practice to predict short- and medium-term prognosis. The MELD score, which remains an accurate, easy-to-use, objective predictive score, has received significant modifications over time, in order to improve its performance especially in the liver transplant (LT) setting, where it is widely used as prioritization tool. Although many attempts to improve prognostic accuracy have failed because of lack of replicability or poor benefit with the comparator (often the MELD score or its variants), few scores have been recently proposed and validated especially for subgroups of patients with ESLD, as those with acute-on-chronic liver failure. Artificial intelligence will probably help hepatologists in the near future to fill the current gaps in predicting disease course and long-term prognosis of such patients.

Downstaging hepatocellular carcinoma before liver transplantation: A multicenter analysis of the "all-comers" protocol in the Multicenter Evaluation of Reduction in Tumor Size before Liver Transplantation (MERITS-LT) consortium

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma meeting united network for organ sharing (UNOS)-downstaging (DS) criteria have excellent liver transplantation (LT) outcomes after DS. However, outcomes for "all-comers" (AC) patients with tumors initially exceeding UNOS-DS are poorly understood. Patients meeting AC (n = 82) or UNOS-DS (n = 229) at 7 LT centers in 4 UNOS regions were prospectively followed from 2015-2020. AC patients had a lower probability of successful DS (67% vs 83% within 12 months; P < .001). The 3-year survival was 69% for UNOS-DS vs 58% for AC (P = .05) and reduced to 30% in patients with Child-Pugh B/C cirrhosis or alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥ 500. Five-year LT probability was 42% for AC vs 74% in UNOS-DS (P = .10). Thirty-eight percent were understaged on explant, with the increasing sum of the largest tumor diameter plus the number of lesions before LT (odds ratio 1.3; P = .01) and AFP ≥ 20 (odds ratio 5.9; P = .005) associated with understaging. Post-LT 3-year survival was 91% for AC vs 81% for UNOS-DS (P = .67). In this first prospective multiregional study of AC patients from the multicenter evaluation of reduction in tumor size before liver transplantation (MERITS-LT) consortium, we observed a 65% probability of successful DS. Three-year survival in AC was nearly 60%, though AC with Child-Pugh B/C or AFP ≥ 500 had poor survival. Explant pathology and 3-year post-LT outcomes were similar between cohorts, suggesting that LT is a reasonable goal in selected AC patients.

AFP-L3 and DCP are superior to AFP in predicting waitlist dropout in HCC patients: Results of a prospective study

In patients with HCC awaiting liver transplantation (LT), there is a need to identify biomarkers that are superior to AFP in predicting prognosis. AFP-L3 and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) play a role in HCC detection, but their ability to predict waitlist dropout is unknown. In this prospective single-center study commenced in July 2017, 267 HCC patients had all 3 biomarkers obtained at LT listing. Among them, 96.2% received local-regional therapy, and 18.8% had an initial tumor stage beyond Milan criteria requiring tumor downstaging. At listing, median AFP was 7.0 ng/mL (IQR 3.4-21.5), median AFP-L3 was 7.1% (IQR 0.5-12.5), and median DCP was 1.0 ng/mL (IQR 0.2-3.8). After a median follow-up of 19.3 months, 63 (23.6%) experienced waitlist dropout, while 145 (54.3%) received LT, and 59 (22.1%) were still awaiting LT. Using Cox proportional hazards analysis, AFP-L3≥35% and DCP≥7.5 ng/mL were associated with increased waitlist dropout, whereas AFP at all tested cutoffs, including ≥20,≥ 100, and≥250 ng/mL was not. In a multivariable model, AFP-L3≥35% (HR 2.25, p =0.04) and DCP≥7.5 ng/mL (HR 2.20, p =0.02) remained associated with waitlist dropout as did time from HCC diagnosis to listing ≥ 1 year and increasing MELD-Na score. Kaplan-Meier probability of waitlist dropout within 2 years was 21.8% in those with AFP-L3<35% and DCP<7.5 ng/mL, 59.9% with either AFP-L3 or DCP elevated, and 100% for those with both elevated ( p <0.001). In this prospective study, listing AFP-L3% and DCP were superior to AFP in predicting waitlist dropout with the combination of AFP-L3≥35% and DCP≥7.5 ng/mL associated with a 100% risk of waitlist dropout, thus clearly adding prognostic value to AFP alone.

Optimizing liver transplant prioritization for hepatocellular carcinoma through risk stratification

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

In the United States, candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) meeting standardized qualifying criteria receive similar priority on the liver transplant waiting list through Model for End-Stage Liver Disease exception points, without consideration of the dropout risk or relative expected benefit from liver transplantation. A more nuanced allocation scheme for HCC is needed to better represent the individual urgency for liver transplant and optimize organ utility. In this review, we discuss the development of HCC risk prediction models for practical use in liver allocation.

RECENT FINDINGS

HCC is a heterogenous disease that requires improved risk stratification for patients who fall within current transplant eligibility criteria. Several models have been proposed, though none have been adopted in clinical practice or liver allocation to date, due to various limitations.

SUMMARY

Improved HCC risk stratification for liver transplant candidates is needed to more accurately represent their urgency for transplant, with continued attention to the potential impact on post-liver transplant outcomes. Plans to implement a continuous distribution model for liver allocation in the United States may provide an opportunity to re-consider a more equitable allocation scheme for patients with HCC.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Interventional Liver-Directed Therapies for a Single, Small Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Liver Transplant Candidates

PURPOSE

To assess the cost effectiveness of 3 main locoregional therapies (LRTs) (transarterial chemoembolization [TACE], transarterial radioembolization [TARE], and percutaneous ablation) as bridging therapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed comparing the 3 LRTs for patients with a single hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with a diameter of 3 cm or less over a 5-year time horizon from a payer's perspective. The clinical courses, including transplantation, decompensation resulting in delisting, and the need for a second LRT, were based on data from the United Network for Organ Sharing (2016-2019). Costs and effectiveness were measured in U.S. dollars and quality-adjusted life-years, respectively. Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 2,594, 1,576, and 903 patients underwent TACE, ablation, and TARE, respectively. Ablation was the dominant strategy, with the lowest expected cost and highest effectiveness. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that ablation was the most cost-effective strategy in 93.9% of simulations. A subgroup analysis was performed for different wait times, with ablation remaining the most cost-effective strategy. The sensitivity analysis showed that ablation was most effective if the risk of waitlist dropout was less than 2.00% and the rate of transplantation was more than 15.1% quarterly. TARE was most effective if the risk of dropout was less than 1.19% and the rate of transplantation was more than 24.0%. TACE was most effective if the risk of dropout was less than 1.01% and the rate of transplantation was more than 45.7%. Ablation remained the most cost-effective modality until its procedural cost was more than $34,843.

CONCLUSIONS

Ablation is the most cost-effective bridging strategy for patients with a single, small (≤3 cm) HCC prior to liver transplantation. The conclusion remained robust in multiple sensitivity analyses.

Percutaneous ethanol injection is an acceptable bridging therapy to hepatocellular carcinoma prior to liver transplantation

PURPOSE

Locoregional therapies (LRT) are employed for bridging patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) awaiting orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). Although the main LRT options include transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA), percutaneous ethanol injection (PEI) is an alternative with considerably lower costs. This study is a pioneering evaluation of the natural history of PEI bridging to OLT as compared to TACE.

METHODS

All consecutive cirrhotic patients with HCC enlisted for OLT (2011-2020) at a single center were analyzed. Patients were divided into three LRT modality groups: PEI, TACE, and PEI+TACE. The primary study outcome was waitlist dropout due to tumor progression beyond Milan criteria. A comparison of post-transplant outcomes of patients as stratified by LRT modality also was performed.

RESULTS

One hundred twenty-nine patients were included (PEI=56, TACE=43, PEI+TACE=30). The dropout rate due to tumor progression was not different among the three groups: PEI=8.9%, TACE=14%, PEI+TACE=16.7% (p=0.54). Thirteen (76.4%) patients underwent OLT after successful downstaging (3 [75%] in the PEI group, 5 [83.3%] in the TACE group, and 5 [71.4%] in the PEI+TACE group). For the 96 patients undergoing OLT, 5-year post-transplant recurrence-free survival was PEI=55.6% vs. TACE=55.1% vs. PEI+TACE=71.4% (p=0.42). Complete/near-complete pathological response rate was similar among groups (p=0.82).

CONCLUSION

Dropout rates and post-transplant recurrence-free survivals related to PEI were comparable to those of TACE. This study supports the use of PEI alone or in combination with TACE for HCC patients awaiting OLT whenever RFA is not an option.

Neo-Adjuvant Use of Sorafenib for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Awaiting Liver Transplantation

Data on efficacy and safety of sorafenib in a neoadjuvant setting for HCC awaiting liver transplantation (LT) are heterogeneous and scarce. We aimed to investigate the trajectory of patients treated with sorafenib while awaiting LT. All patients listed for HCC and treated with sorafenib were included in a monocentric observational study. A clinical and biological evaluation was performed every month. Radiological tumor response evaluation was realized every 3 months on the waiting list and every 6 months after LT. Among 327 patients listed for HCC, 62 (19%) were treated with Sorafenib. Sorafenib was initiated for HCC progression after loco-regional therapy (LRT) in 50% of cases and for impossibility of LRT in 50% of cases. The mean duration of treatment was 6 months. Thirty six patients (58%) dropped-out for tumor progression and 26 (42%) patients were transplanted. The 5-year overall and recurrent-free survival after LT was 77% and 48% respectively. Patients treated for impossibility of LRT had acceptable 5-year intention-to-treat overall and post-LT survivals. Conversely, patients treated for HCC progression presented high dropout rate and low intention-to-treat survival. Our results suggest that it is very questionable in terms of utility that patients treated for HCC progression should even be kept listed once the tumor progression has been observed.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Predictors of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Progression and Dropout in Patients in Liver Transplantation Waiting List

With the rising incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), more patients are now eligible for liver transplantation. Consequently, HCC progression and dropout from the waiting list are also anticipated to rise. We developed a predictive model based on radiographic features and alpha-fetoprotein to identify high-risk patients.

METHODS

This is a case-cohort retrospective study of 76 patients with HCC who were listed for liver transplantation with subsequent liver transplantation or delisting due to HCC progression. We analyzed imaging-based predictive variables including tumor margin (well- versus ill-defined), capsule bulging lesions, volumetric analysis and distance to portal vein, tumor numbers, and tumor diameter. Volumetric analysis of the index lesions was used to quantify index tumor total volume and volumetric enhancement, whereas logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analyses were used to predict the main outcome of disease progression.

RESULTS

In univariate analyses, the following baseline variables were significantly associated with disease progression: size and number of lesions, sum of lesion diameters, lesions bulging the capsule, and total and venous-enhancing (viable) tumor volumes. Based on multivariable analyses, a risk model including lesion numbers and diameter, capsule bulging, tumor margin (infiltrative versus well-defined), and alpha-fetoprotein was developed to predict HCC progression and dropout. The model has an area under the ROC of 82%, which was significantly higher than Milan criteria that has an area under the ROC of 67%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model has a high predictive test for patient dropout due to HCC progression. This model can identify high-risk patients who may benefit from more aggressive HCC treatment early after diagnosis to prevent dropout due to such disease progression.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Alpha Fetoprotein, and Liver Allocation for Transplantation: Past, Present and Future

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading indications for liver transplantation and has been the treatment of choice due to the oncologic benefit for patients with advanced chronic liver disease (AdvCLD) and small tumors for the last 25 years. For HCC patients undergoing liver transplantation, alpha fetoprotein (AFP) has increasingly been applied as an independent predictor for overall survival, disease free recurrence, and waitlist drop out. In addition to static AFP, newer studies evaluating the AFP dynamic response to downstaging therapy show enhanced prognostication compared to static AFP alone. While AFP has been utilized to select HCC patients for transplant, despite years of allocation policy changes, the US allocation system continues to take a uniform approach to HCC patients, without discriminating between those with favorable or unfavorable tumor biology. We aim to review the history of liver allocation for HCC in the US, the utility of AFP in liver transplantation, the implications of weaving AFP as a biomarker into policy. Based on this review, we encourage the US transplant community to revisit its HCC organ allocation model, to incorporate more precise oncologic principles for patient selection, and to adopt AFP dynamics to better stratify waitlist dropout risk.

PD-1 inhibitors plus anti-angiogenic therapy with or without intensity-modulated radiotherapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: A propensity score matching study

BACKGROUND

Whether intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) can enhance the efficacy of the programmed death (PD)-1 inhibitors combined with anti-angiogenic therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is unclear. Therefore, we conducted this multicenter retrospective study to investigate the efficacy of the combination of PD-1 inhibitors with anti-angiogenic therapy and IMRT.

METHODS

From April 2019 to March 2022, a total of 197 patients with HCC [combination of PD-1 inhibitors with anti-angiogenic therapy and IMRT (triple therapy group), 54; PD-1 inhibitors plus anti-angiogenic therapy (control group), 143] were included in our study. Propensity score matching (PSM) was applied to identify two groups with similar baselines. The objective response rate (ORR), overall survival (OS), and progression-free survival (PFS) of the two groups were compared before and after matching.

RESULTS

Prior to PSM, the triple therapy group had higher ORR (42.6% vs 24.5%, P = 0.013) and more superior median OS (mOS) (20.1 vs 13.3 months, P = 0.009) and median PFS (mPFS) (8.7 vs 5.4 months, P = 0.001) than the control group. Following PSM, the triple therapy group still exhibited better mPFS (8.7 vs 5.4 months, P = 0.013) and mOS (18.5 vs 12.6 months, P = 0.043) than the control group. However, the ORR of the two groups was similar (40% vs 25%, P = 0.152). No significant difference was observed in the treatment-related adverse events between the two groups (P < 0.05 for all).

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of PD-1 inhibitors with anti-angiogenic therapy and IMRT for HCC is a promising regimen.

National Experience on Waitlist Outcomes for Down-Staging of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: High Dropout Rate in All-Comers

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) grants priority listing for liver transplant for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after successful down-staging to Milan criteria. We evaluated the national experience on down-staging by comparing 2 down-staging groups: tumor burden meeting UNOS down-staging (UNOS-DS) inclusion criteria, and all-comers (AC)-DS with initial tumor burden beyond UNOS-DS criteria vs patients always within Milan criteria.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of the UNOS database of 23,398 patients listed for liver transplant who had submitted a hepatocellular carcinoma Model for End-Stage Liver Disease exception application from 2010 to 2019, classified as always within Milan (n = 20,579), UNOS-DS (n = 2151), and AC-DS (n = 668).

RESULTS

The 2-year cumulative probabilities of dropout were 19% for Milan, 25% for UNOS-DS (P < .001), and 30% for AC-DS (P < .001). In multivariate analysis of the down-staging groups, factors predicting dropout included Model for End-Stage Liver Disease at listing (hazard ratio [HR], 1.06; P < .001) and initial total tumor diameter (HR, 1.04; P = .002). Compared with α-fetoprotein (AFP) level ≤20 ng/mL, AFP levels of 21 to 100, 101 to 1000, and greater than 1000 ng/mL were associated with a higher risk of dropout (HRs, 1.63, 2.06, and 4.58, respectively; P < .001). A subset of all-comers with AFP levels greater than 100 ng/mL had a 2-year probability of dropout of 52% vs 26% for all others beyond Milan criteria (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

All-comers had a significantly higher risk for waitlist dropout compared with the UNOS-DS and Milan groups after initial successful down-staging to Milan criteria. In particular, the subgroup of AC-DS with an AFP level greater than 100 ng/mL had a greater than 50% probability of dropout in the next 2 years. These observations suggest a high likelihood of failure when expanding the indications for down-staging.

Performance of pre-transplant criteria in prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma progression and waitlist dropout

BACKGROUND & AIM

Liver transplantation (LT) selection models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have not been proposed to predict waitlist dropout because of tumour progression. The aim of this study was to compare the alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) model and other pre-LT models in their prediction of HCC dropout.

METHODS

A multicentre cohort study was conducted in 20 Latin American transplant centres, including 994 listed patients for LT with HCC from 2012 to 2018. Longitudinal tumour characteristics, and patterns of progression were recorded at time of listing, after treatments and at last follow-up over the waitlist period. Competing risk regression models were performed, and model's discrimination was compared estimating Harrell's adapted c-statistics.

RESULTS

HCC dropout rate was significantly higher in patients beyond (24% [95% CI 16-28]) compared to those within Milan criteria (8% [95% IC 5%-12%]; p < .0001), with a SHR of 3.01 [95% CI 2.03-4.47]), adjusted for waiting list time and bridging therapies (c-index 0.63 [95% CI 0.57; 0.69). HCC dropout rates were higher in patients with AFP scores >2 (adjusted SHR of 3.17 [CI 2.13-4.71]), c-index of 0.71 (95% CI 0.65-0.77; p = .09 vs Milan). Similar discrimination power for HCC dropout was observed between the AFP score and the Metroticket 2.0 model. In patients within Milan, an AFP score >2 points discriminated two populations with a higher risk of HCC dropout (SHR 1.68 [95% CI 1.08-2.61]).

CONCLUSIONS

Pre-transplant selection models similarly predicted HCC dropout. However, the AFP model can discriminate a higher risk of dropout among patients within Milan criteria.

The Impact of Median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease at Transplant Minus 3 National Policy on Waitlist Outcomes in Patients With and Without Hepatocellular Carcinoma

As a result of ongoing regional disparities, the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) implemented policy in May 2019 limiting exception points for waitlisted patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease at transplant in the area surrounding a transplant center minus 3 points (MMAT-3). The impact of this policy change remains unknown. We included adult patients with HCC (n = 4567) and without HCC (n = 19,773) in the UNOS database added to the waiting list before this policy change (May 7, 2017-May 18, 2019) and after (May 19, 2019-March 7, 2020). Cumulative incidence analysis estimated the probability of dropout within 1 year of listing decreased from 12.9% before the policy to 11.1% after the policy in candidates without HCC and from 14% to 10.7% in candidates with HCC. Incidence rates of liver transplantation (LT) and waitlist dropout varied significantly before the policy in patients with HCC and without HCC but nearly equalized in the postpolicy era. These effects were observed in both shorter and longer wait regions. With policy change being modeled as a time-dependent covariate, competing risk regression analyses estimated a decreased risk of dropout after policy change in the non-HCC group (cause-specific hazard ratio, 0.91; P = 0.02) after adjusting for demographic variables. These results suggest that the MMAT-3 policy has successfully reduced disparities in access to LT including across UNOS wait regions, although certain patients with HCC are now disadvantaged.

Machine learning to predict waitlist dropout among liver transplant candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Accurate prediction of outcome among liver transplant candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains challenging. We developed a prediction model for waitlist dropout among liver transplant candidates with HCC.

Methods

The study included 18,920 adult liver transplant candidates in the United States listed with a diagnosis of HCC, with data provided by the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. The primary outcomes were 3‐, 6‐, and 12‐month waitlist dropout, defined as removal from the liver transplant waitlist due to death or clinical deterioration.

Results

Using 1,181 unique variables, the random forest model and Spearman's correlation analyses converged on 12 predictive features involving 5 variables, including AFP (maximum and average), largest tumor size (minimum, average, and most recent), bilirubin (minimum and average), INR (minimum and average), and ascites (maximum, average, and most recent). The final Cox proportional hazards model had a concordance statistic of 0.74 in the validation set. An online calculator was created for clinical use and can be found at: http://hcclivercalc.cloudmedxhealth.com/.

Conclusion

In summary, a simple, interpretable 5‐variable model predicted 3‐, 6‐, and 12‐month waitlist dropout among patients with HCC. This prediction can be used to appropriately prioritize patients with HCC and their imminent need for transplant.

Upper Limits of Downstaging for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Liver Transplantation

In Europe and the United States, approximately 1100 and 1800 liver transplantations, respectively, are performed every year for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), compared with an annual incidence of 65,000 and 39,000 new cases, respectively. Because of organ shortages, proper patient selection is crucial, especially for those exceeding the Milan criteria. Downstaging is the reduction of the HCC burden to meet the eligibility criteria for liver transplantation. Many techniques can be used in downstaging, including ablation, chemoembolisation, radioembolisation and systemic treatments, with a reported success rate of 60-70%. In recent years, an increasing number of patient responders to downstaging procedures has been included in the waitlist, generally with a comparable five-year post-transplant survival but with a higher probability of dropout than HCC patients within the Milan criteria. While the Milan criteria are generally accepted as the endpoint of downstaging, the upper limits of tumour burden for downstaging HCC for liver transplantation are controversial. Very challenging situations involve HCC patients with large nodules, macrovascular invasion or even extrahepatic metastasis at baseline who respond to increasingly more effective downstaging procedures and who aspire to be placed on the waitlist for transplantation. This narrative review analyses the most important evidence available on cohorts subjected to "extended" downstaging, including HCC patients over the up-to-seven criteria and over the University of California San Francisco downstaging criteria. We also address surrogate markers of biological aggressiveness, such as alpha-fetoprotein and the response stability to locoregional treatments, which are very useful in selecting responders to downstaging procedures for waitlisting inclusion.

Optimizing the use of twitter for research dissemination: The "Three Facts and a Story" randomized-controlled trial

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Published research promoted on twitter reaches more readers. Tweets with graphics are more engaging than those without. However, data are limited regarding how to optimize multimedia tweets for engagement.

METHODS

The "Three facts and a Story" trial is a randomized-controlled trial comparing a tweet featuring a graphical abstract to paired tweets featuring the personal motivations behind the research and a summary of the findings. Fifty-four studies published by the Journal of Hepatology were randomized at the time of online publication. The primary endpoint was assessed at 28-days from online publication with a primary outcome of full-text downloads from the website. Secondary outcomes included page views and twitter engagement including impressions, likes, and retweets.

RESULTS

Overall, 31 studies received standard tweets and 23 received story tweets. Five studies were randomized to story tweets but crossed over to standard tweets for lack of author participation. Most papers tweeted were original articles (94% standard, 91% story) and clinical topics (55% standard, 61% story). Story tweets were associated with a significant increase in the number of full text downloads, 51 (34-71) vs. 25 (13-41), p = 0.002. There was also a non-significant increase in the number of page views. Story tweets generated an average of >1,000 more impressions than standard tweets (5,388 vs. 4,280, p = 0.002). Story tweets were associated with a similar number of retweets, and a non-significant increase in the number of likes.

CONCLUSION

Tweets featuring the authors and their motivations may increase engagement with published research.

Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Real-Life Comparison of Milan Criteria and AFP Model

Simple Summary

The α-fetoprotein (AFP) model officially replaced the Milan criteria in France for liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in January 2013. The aim of our retrospective study was to analyze the agreement of the criteria and the results of LT with an intention-to-treat design since the adoption of the AFP model and to compare them to the practice and results of LT before the adoption of the AFP model. We did not observe significant changes in practices in 523 consecutively listed patients, with a good agreement (88%) to AFP criteria on the explants before and after the adoption of the AFP model. However, the prognosis of patients listed in the most recent period was worse, maybe because of a significant increase in bridging treatments and in the waiting time. This observational study provides an insight into the real-life course of LT for HCC.

Abstract

Purpose: To compare the agreement for the criteria on the explant and the results of liver transplantation (LT) before and after adoption of the AFP (α-fetoprotein) model. Methods: 523 patients consecutively listed in five French centers were reviewed to compare results of the Milan criteria period (MilanCP, n = 199) (before 2013) and the AFP score period (AFPscP, n = 324) (after 2013). (NCT03156582). Results: During AFPscP, there was a significantly longer waiting time on the list (12.3 vs. 7.7 months, p < 0.001) and higher rate of bridging therapies (84 vs. 75%, p = 0.012) compared to the MilanCP. Dropout rate was slightly higher in the AFPscP (31 vs. 24%, p = 0.073). No difference was found in the histological AFP score between groups (p = 0.838) with a global agreement in 88% of patients. Post-LT recurrence was 9.2% in MilanCP vs. 13.2% in AFPscP (p = 0.239) and predictive factors were AFP > 2 on the last imaging, downstaging policy and salvage transplantation. Post-LT survival was similar (83 vs. 87% after 2 years, p = 0.100), but after propensity score analysis, the post-listing overall survival (OS) was worse in the AFPscP (HR 1.45, p = 0.045). Conclusions: Agreement for the AFP model on explant analysis (≤2) did not significantly change. AFP score > 2 was the major prognostic factor for recurrence. Graft allocation policy has a major impact on prognosis, with a post-listing OS significantly decreased, probably due to the increase in waiting time, increase in bridging therapies, downstaging policy and salvage transplantation.

The Relationship between Hepatic Myeloid-Derived Suppressor Cells and Clinicopathological Parameters in Patients with Chronic Liver Disease

Myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs) have attracted attention due to their important role in inflammation. Several studies have investigated the involvement of MDSCs in chronic liver disease. However, due to the difference of MDSC phenotypes, patient types, and sample sources among the studies, the results are inconsistent and controversial. We took advantage of a large well-defined cohort of 98 (24 patients with CHB, 18 with NAFLD, 13 with HCC, 16 with PBC, and 27 with AIH) patients with liver inflammation and 12 healthy controls to investigate the expression of MDSCs, and the relationships between the expression of hepatic MDSCs and the clinical characteristics were analyzed. We found that the expression of CD11b+CD33+ MDSCs is closely related to chronic liver disease and positively correlated with clinical parameters such as ALT, AST, and globulin. Ultimately, the present study suggests that hepatic CD11b+CD33+ MDSCs are increased in HCC and AIH and positively correlate with the liver stages of hepatitis activity and liver fibrosis stage.

Indication of Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Should Be Reconsidered in Case of Microvascular Invasion and Multilocular Tumor Occurrence

Liver transplantation (LT) is routinely performed for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhosis without major vascular invasion. Although the adverse influence of microvascular invasion is recognized, its occurrence does not contraindicate LT. We retrospectively analyzed in our LT cohort the significance of microvascular invasion on survival and demonstrate bridging procedures. At our hospital, 346 patients were diagnosed with HCC, 171 patients were evaluated for LT, and 153 were listed at Eurotransplant during a period of 11 years. Among these, 112 patients received LT and were included in this study. Overall survival after 1, 3 and 5 years was 86.3%, 73.9%, and 67.9%, respectively. Microvascular invasion led to significantly reduced overall (p = 0.030) and disease-free survival (p = 0.002). Five-year disease-free survival with microvascular invasion was 10.5%. Multilocular tumor occurrence with simultaneous microvascular invasion revealed the worst prognosis. In our LT cohort, predominant bridging treatment was transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and the number of TACE significantly correlated with poorer overall survival after LT (p = 0.028), which was confirmed in multiple Cox regression analysis for overall and disease-free survival (p = 0.015 and p = 0.011). Microvascular tumor invasion is significantly associated with reduced prognosis after LT, which is aggravated by simultaneous occurrence of multiple lesions. Therefore, indication strategies for LT should be reconsidered.