Using liver stiffness to predict and monitor the risk of decompensation and mortality in patients with alcohol-related liver disease

Artificial intelligence for early prediction of alcohol-related liver disease: Advances, challenges, and clinical applications

Alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) remains a major public health concern, often diagnosed at advanced stages with limited treatment options. Early identification of high-risk individuals is crucial for timely intervention and improved patient outcomes. Artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a powerful tool for predicting ARLD, leveraging multi-omics data, machine learning algorithms, and non-invasive biomarkers. This review explores the current advancements in AI-driven ARLD prediction, highlighting key methodologies such as multi-omics data integration, gut microbiome-based modeling, and predictive analytics using machine learning techniques. AI models incorporating transcriptomics, proteomics, and clinical data have demonstrated high diagnostic accuracy, with some achieving an area under the curve exceeding 0.90. Furthermore, non-invasive biomarkers, including liver stiffness measurements and circulating proteomic panels, have been successfully integrated into AI frameworks for early detection and risk stratification. Despite these advancements, challenges such as data heterogeneity, model generalizability, and ethical considerations remain. Future directions include the development of advanced biomarker discovery, wearable and point-of-care AI-integrated technologies, and precision medicine approaches tailored to individual risk profiles. AI-driven models hold significant potential in transforming ARLD prediction and management, ultimately contributing to early diagnosis and improved clinical outcomes.

Advances in imaging-Elastography

Chronic liver disease affects over a billion people worldwide. Liver fibrosis is the key driver of liver-related complications and mortality. Elastography has been a transformative tool in hepatology, allowing for the diagnosis and staging of liver fibrosis noninvasively, and is evolving beyond these purposes into a prognostication tool. By measuring tissue stiffness, elastography techniques such as shear-wave and magnetic resonance elastography offer critical insights into liver fibrosis, portal hypertension, and the progression of disease. Magnetic resonance elastography stands out for its reliability across fibrosis stages and robustness in obese patients affected by metabolic liver disease. Spleen stiffness measurement complements liver assessments, enhancing the identification of portal hypertension and refining patient risk stratification. This review covers current clinical applications but also anticipates future innovations such as artificial intelligence-based algorithms that could expand elastography's clinical impact, thereby improving patient outcomes.

The steatotic liver disease burden paradox: unravelling the key role of alcohol

The classification of steatotic liver disease (SLD) has evolved, incorporating all conditions characterized by hepatic lipid accumulation. SLD represents a continuum of disorders that are shaped by the dynamic factors of alcohol intake and cardiometabolic risk factors. This updated classification has profound implications for both the management and research of SLD, especially with the new distinct category of patients with both metabolic and alcohol-related liver disease. In this Perspective, we highlight the pivotal role of alcohol within the SLD framework. We introduce the 'SLD burden paradox': a concept illustrating the disparity in which metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease is more prevalent, yet individuals with SLD and excessive alcohol intake (such as in metabolic and alcohol-related liver disease and in alcohol-related liver disease) account for greater global liver-related morbidity and mortality. We explore strategies to mitigate the effect of SLD on morbidity and mortality, emphasizing the importance of early detection and reducing stigma associated with alcohol intake. Our discussion extends to methods for assessing and monitoring alcohol intake together with the critical role of managing cardiometabolic risk factors in patients across the SLD spectrum. Conclusively, we advocate for a coordinated care framework that adopts a person-centric approach when managing SLD, aiming to improve outcomes and patient care.

Preventing the progression of cirrhosis to decompensation and death

Two main stages are differentiated in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD), one compensated (cACLD) with an excellent prognosis, and the other decompensated (dACLD), defined by the appearance of complications (ascites, variceal bleeding and hepatic encephalopathy) and associated with high mortality. Preventing the progression to dACLD might dramatically improve prognosis and reduce the burden of care associated with ACLD. Portal hypertension is a major driver of the transition from cACLD to dACLD, and a portal pressure of ≥10 mmHg defines clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) as the threshold from which decompensating events may occur. In recent years, innovative studies have provided evidence supporting new strategies to prevent decompensation in cACLD. These studies have yielded major advances, including the development of noninvasive tests (NITs) to identify patients with CSPH with reasonable confidence, the demonstration that aetiological therapies can prevent disease progression and even achieve regression of cirrhosis, and the finding that non-selective β-blockers can effectively prevent decompensation in patients with cACLD and CSPH, mainly by reducing the risk of ascites, the most frequent decompensating event. Here, we review the evidence supporting new strategies to manage cACLD to prevent decompensation and the caveats for their implementation, from patient selection using NITs to ancillary therapies.

Risk of hepatic decompensation or HCC is similar in patients with ALD- and MASLD-cirrhosis: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

It is unclear if the risk of hepatic decompensation or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) differs between patients with compensated alcohol-related liver disease (ALD)- and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)-cirrhosis. We investigated the risk to develop hepatic decompensation or HCC based on ALD or MASLD as the underlying etiology of cirrhosis.

METHODS

All patients with a new diagnosis in hospital-based outpatient care of ALD- or MASLD-cirrhosis in Sweden between 2002 and 2020 were identified using national registers. Hepatic decompensation was analyzed as a composite outcome with HCC. Cox regression was employed to compare rates of hepatic decompensation or HCC, and subsequent death.

RESULTS

1660 patients with ALD-cirrhosis and 943 patients with MASLD-cirrhosis were identified. The median ages were 64 years (IQR 57-70) and 69 years (IQR 62-75) in patients with ALD- and MASLD-cirrhosis, respectively. Patients with ALD-cirrhosis consisted of 69.4 % males, compared to 47.6 % males in the MASLD-cirrhosis group. 581 (35 %) patients with ALD-cirrhosis and 284 (30 %) patients with MASLD-cirrhosis developed hepatic decompensation or HCC (median follow-up time: 25 months), resulting in an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.12 (ALD- vs. MASLD-cirrhosis, 95 %-confidence interval=0.88-1.41). The adjusted risk of mortality afterwards was lower in patients with ALD-cirrhosis compared to patients with MASLD-cirrhosis (adjusted hazard ratio 0.62, 95 %-confidence interval=0.39-0.97).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of hepatic decompensation or HCC is comparable in patients with ALD- and MASLD-cirrhosis, but the risk of mortality after a decompensation event or HCC tends to be higher in patients with MASLD-cirrhosis.

Liver stiffness measurement trajectory analysis for prognosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B and compensated advanced chronic liver disease

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) offer a noninvasive method for monitoring liver disease development. This study evaluated the prognostic value of different LSM trajectories in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 1272 CHB and cACLD patients with at least two LSMs, applied group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) to identify distinct LSM trajectories, and used a Cox model to analyze their associations with liver-related events (LREs) and mortality risk.

RESULTS

Patients were categorized into five groups with distinct LSM trajectories: 67 (8.5 %), 13 (11 %), 36 (23.5 %), 34 (27.6 %) and 23 (25.0 %) developed LREs in Groups 1-5. The low stable trajectory (Group 3), the medium gradual decrease trajectory (Group 4) and high quickly decrease followed by increase trajectory (Group 5) had higher LREs risks than the low gradual decrease trajectory (Group 1) (adjusted HRs 2.26, 2.39, 2.67; 95 % CIs 1.50-3.40, 1.57-3.66, 1.61-4.43, respectively). Similar elevated risks were observed for hepatic decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver-related and all-cause mortality, except that there was no significant difference in the risk of HCC between Groups 4 and 1 (aHR 0.66, 0.36-1.23). When comparing Group 1 with the medium quickly decrease trajectory (Group 2), no significant differences were noted in the prognosis (P > 0.05). Notably, age over 40, high LSM, low PLT, and high total bilirubin were linked to high-risk trajectories (Groups 3-5).

CONCLUSIONS

Monitoring LSM trajectories improves prognostic prediction in CHB and cACLD compared with single measurements and may guide personalized treatment strategies.

Effects of hydrogel stiffness and viscoelasticity on organoid culture: a comprehensive review

As an emerging technology, organoids are promising new tools for basic and translational research in disease. Currently, the culture of organoids relies mainly on a type of unknown composition scaffold, namely Matrigel, which may pose problems in studying the effect of mechanical properties on organoids. Hydrogels, a new material with adjustable mechanical properties, can adapt to current studies. In this review, we summarized the synthesis of recent advance in developing definite hydrogel scaffolds for organoid culture and identified the critical parameters for regulating mechanical properties. In addition, classified by different mechanical properties like stiffness and viscoelasticity, we concluded the effect of mechanical properties on the development of organoids and tumor organoids. We hope this review enhances the understanding of the development of organoids by hydrogels and provides more practical approaches to investigating them.

Non-invasive assessment of portal hypertension: Liver stiffness and beyond

Portal hypertension (PH) leads to life-threatening clinical manifestations such as bleeding from gastro-oesophageal varices, ascites and its complications, and portosystemic encephalopathy. It can develop because of advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) or due to rarer causes such as vascular liver disease. Reference standard methods to assess PH in ACLD include the measurement of hepatic venous pressure gradient and endoscopy, which have limitations due to their high resource utilisation and invasiveness. Non-invasive tests (NITs) have entered clinical practice and allow invasive procedures to be reserved for patients with indeterminate findings on NITs or for specific clinical questions. In this review, we present an update on the role of NITs, and in particular ultrasound elastography, to diagnose PH in ACLD and vascular liver disease, and to stratify the risk of liver-related events. We also provide insights into the open research questions and design of studies in this field.

Moving diagnosis of liver fibrosis into the community

Chronic liver disease (CLD) is a leading cause of death worldwide, with alcohol consumption and metabolic risk factors accounting for the majority of cases of CLD in many developed countries. Currently, specific strategies for the early diagnosis of CLD are lacking and consequently most cases are diagnosed at an advanced stage, which is associated with negative consequences for disease management and prognosis. Screening for CLD is based on either detection of chronic viral hepatitis B and C, or detection of liver fibrosis in patients with steatotic liver disease related to alcohol or metabolic dysfunction. Non-invasive tools, including serological and imaging-based tests, can be used to detect liver fibrosis. Clinical practice guidelines recommend screening for liver fibrosis using algorithms that combine different non-invasive tests, with widely available but low accuracy tests, such as FIB-4, recommended as a first screening step in the primary care setting, and other tests with lower availability but higher accuracy, such as transient elastography or the enhanced liver fibrosis test, recommended as a second step. There are different pathways for early detection of patients with CLD from primary to specialised care, with primary care providers being key for early detection, management and referral of patients. In addition, interventions targeting metabolic risk factors and alcohol consumption should be carried out in collaboration between specialists and primary care. In this review, we describe liver fibrosis from the community perspective, highlighting gaps in knowledge on how to define the optimal combination of tests, target population, the ideal pathway of care for CLD, and how to increase implementation of programmes for early diagnosis of liver diseases in clinical practice.

The role of noninvasive biomarkers for monitoring cell injury in advanced liver fibrosis

INTRODUCTION

Accurate and reliable diagnosis and monitoring of hepatic fibrosis is increasingly important given the variable natural history in chronic liver disease (CLD) and expanding antifibrotic therapeutic options targeting reversibility of early-stage cirrhosis. This highlights the need to develop more refined and effective noninvasive techniques for the dynamic assessment of fibrogenesis and fibrolysis.

AREAS COVERED

We conducted a literature review on PubMed, from 1 December 1970, to 1 November 2024, to evaluate and compare available blood-based and imaging-based noninvasive tools for hepatic fibrosis diagnosis and monitoring. Simple scores such as FIB-4 and NAFLD fibrosis score are suitable for excluding significant or advanced fibrosis, while tertiary centers should adopt complex scores and liver stiffness measurement as part of a secondary diagnostic and more comprehensive evaluation. Moreover, the advent of multiomics for high-resolution molecular profiling, and integration of artificial intelligence for noninvasive diagnostics holds promise for revolutionizing fibrosis monitoring and treatment through novel biomarker discovery and predictive omics-based algorithms.

EXPERT OPINION

The increased shift toward noninvasive diagnostics for liver fibrosis needs to align with personalized medicine, enabling more effective, tailored management strategies for patients with liver disease in the future.

Serial Liver Stiffness Measurement and Fibrosis-4 Scores in Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND

In patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), there are limited data on how changes in FIB4 and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) correlate in non-biopsy cohorts.

AIMS

Our objective was to evaluate associations between changes in FIB4 and LSM in MASLD patients.

METHODS

We included MASLD patients with serial VCTE from 2015-2022. The primary predictors were change in FIB4 and presence of diabetes, obesity, and high alanine aminotransferase (ALT). The primary outcome, applied only to patients with LSM1 < 8 kPa, was incident significant fibrosis (SF) defined as a ≥ 20% increase in LSM2 vs. LSM1 and LSM2 ≥ 8 kPa. A secondary outcome was LSM progression with a similar definition but applied to all participants, not only those with LSM1 < 8 kPa.

RESULTS

Of 285 included patients, 216 had LSM1 < 8 kPa and were included in the primary analysis; of these, 34 (16%) had incident SF. Changes in FIB4 correlated with changes in LSM (R = 0.16, p = 0.016). Independent predictors of incident SF included comorbid diabetes mellitus (OR 2.43, 95% CI 1.04-6.56), obesity (OR 3.88, 95% CI 1.63-9.25), and baseline ALT ≥ 30 (OR 8.55, 95% CI 1.10-66.29). A model including ALT, diabetes, and obesity outperformed a model with FIB4 change alone.

CONCLUSION

Among patients with MASLD, changes in FIB4 correlated with changes in LSM but more significant correlates of incident significant fibrosis included diabetes mellitus, obesity, and high baseline ALT.

Diagnostic and prognostic performance of the LiverRisk score in tertiary care

Background & Aims

The LiverRisk score has been proposed as a blood-based tool to estimate liver stiffness measurement (LSM), thereby stratifying the risk of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD, LSM ≥10 kPa) and liver-related events in patients without known chronic liver disease (CLD). We aimed to evaluate its diagnostic/prognostic performance in tertiary care.

Methods

Patients referred to two hepatology outpatient clinics (cohort I, n = 5,897; cohort II, n = 1,558) were retrospectively included. Calibration/agreement of the LiverRisk score with LSM was assessed, and diagnostic accuracy for cACLD was compared with that of fibrosis-4 (FIB-4)/aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI). The prediction of hepatic decompensation and utility of proposed cut-offs were evaluated.

Results

In cohort I/II, mean age was 48.3/51.8 years, 44.2%/44.7% were female, predominant etiologies were viral hepatitis (51.8%)/metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (63.7%), median LSM was 6.9 (IQR 5.1-10.9)/5.8 (IQR 4.5-8.8) kPa, and 1,690 (28.7%)/322 (20.7%) patients had cACLD.Despite a moderate correlation (Pearson's r = 0.325/0.422), the LiverRisk score systematically underestimated LSM (2.93/1.80 points/kPa lower), and range of agreement was wide, especially at higher values.The diagnostic accuracy of the LiverRisk score for cACLD (area under the receiver operator characteristics curve [AUROC] 0.757/0.790) was comparable to that of FIB-4 (AUROC 0.769/0.813) and APRI (AUROC 0.747/0.765). The proposed cut-off of 10 points yielded an accuracy of 74.2%/81.2%, high specificity (91.9%/93.4%), but low negative predictive value (76.6%/84.5%, Cohen's κ = 0.260/0.327).In cohort I, 208 (3.5%) patients developed hepatic decompensation (median follow-up 4.7 years). The LiverRisk score showed a reasonable accuracy for predicting hepatic decompensation within 1-5 years (AUROC 0.778-0.832). However, it was inferior to LSM (AUROC 0.847-0.901, p <0.001) and FIB-4 (AUROC 0.898-0.913, p <0.001). Similar to the strata of other non-invasive tests, the proposed LiverRisk groups had distinct risks of hepatic decompensation.

Conclusions

The LiverRisk score did not improve the diagnosis of cACLD or prediction of hepatic decompensation in the tertiary care setting.

Impact and implications

The LiverRisk score has been proposed as a non-invasive tool to estimate liver stiffness measurement and thus the risk of compensated advanced chronic liver disease and liver-related events. As automatic implementation into lab reports is being discussed, the question of its applicability outside of opportunistic screening in the general population arises. In two large cohorts of patients referred to hepatology outpatient clinics, the LiverRisk score did not accurately predict liver stiffness, did not improve cACLD identification, and had a lower predictive performance for hepatic decompensation as compared with FIB-4. Although it represents a major step forward for screening patients without known liver disease in primary care, our findings indicate that the LiverRisk score does not improve patient management outside the primary care setting, that is, in cohorts with a higher pre-test probability of cACLD.

Long-term liver-related outcomes and liver stiffness progression of statin usage in steatotic liver disease

BACKGROUND

Statins have multiple benefits in patients with metabolic-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD).

AIM

To explore the effects of statins on the long-term risk of all-cause mortality, liver-related clinical events (LREs) and liver stiffness progression in patients with MASLD.

METHODS

This cohort study collected data on patients with MASLD undergoing at least two vibration-controlled transient elastography examinations at 16 tertiary referral centres. Cox regression analysis was performed to examine the association between statin usage and long-term risk of all-cause mortality and LREs stratified by compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD): baseline liver stiffness measurement (LSM) of ≥10 kPa. Liver stiffness progression was defined as an LSM increase of ≥20% for cACLD and from <10 kPa to ≥10 or LSM for non-cACLD. Liver stiffness regression was defined as LSM reduction from ≥10 kPa to <10 or LSM decrease of ≥20% for cACLD.

RESULTS

We followed up 7988 patients with baseline LSM 5.9 kPa (IQR 4.6-8.2) for a median of 4.6 years. At baseline, 40.5% of patients used statins, and cACLD was present in 17%. Statin usage was significantly associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR=0.233; 95% CI 0.127 to 0.426) and LREs (adjusted HR=0.380; 95% CI 0.268 to 0.539). Statin usage was also associated with lower liver stiffness progression rates in cACLD (HR=0.542; 95% CI 0.389 to 0.755) and non-cACLD (adjusted HR=0.450; 95% CI 0.342 to 0.592), but not with liver stiffness regression (adjusted HR=0.914; 95% CI 0.778 to 1.074).

CONCLUSIONS

Statin usage was associated with a relatively lower long-term risk of all-cause mortality, LREs and liver stiffness progression in patients with MASLD.

Early detection of liver disease in patients with alcohol use disorder improves long-term abstinence

AIMS

Excessive alcohol consumption is a major global health concern, contributing to millions of deaths annually and a significant proportion of cirrhosis cases; however, standardized protocols for early identification of alcohol-associated liver disease are lacking. In this retrospective cohort study, we aimed to understand the prevalence and risk factors associated with elevated liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in high-risk patients with alcohol use disorder (AUD) and identify variables associated with longitudinal abstinence and outcomes.

METHODS

Veterans with severe AUD without known liver disease admitted to a 35-day residential substance use treatment program were offered liver health screening, including Fibroscan evaluation. Assessment of AUD severity and liver health outcomes were evaluated longitudinally by chart review.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

In a cohort of 257 veterans with severe AUD admitted to residential treatment, 185 underwent Fibroscan evaluation, and 22 were identified to have elevated LSM concerning for compensated advanced chronic liver disease. Patients with elevated LSM were more likely to remain abstinent after 1 year. About 41% of patients with LSM ≥ 10 kPa (5% of all screened patients) were confirmed to have cirrhosis on follow-up and incorporated into routine hepatology care. Screening of liver disease in high-risk populations with non-invasive imaging modalities provides an opportunity to identify patients at risk for compensated advanced chronic liver disease before decompensation. Identification of increased risk for advanced chronic liver disease may promote abstinence in patients with severe AUD. Collaboration between mental health professionals and hepatologists is critical for the integration of care for patients with AUD and liver disease.