Prognostic profiling of children with serious post-operative complications: A novel probability model for failure to rescue

The frailty-driven predictive model for failure to rescue among patients who experienced a major complication following cervical decompression and fusion: an ACS-NSQIP analysis of 3,632 cases (2011-2020)

BACKGROUND CONTEXT

Preoperative risk stratification for patients considering cervical decompression and fusion (CDF) relies on established independent risk factors to predict the probability of complications and outcomes in order to help guide pre and perioperative decision-making.

PURPOSE

This study aims to determine frailty's impact on failure to rescue (FTR), or when a mortality occurs within 30 days following a major complication.

STUDY DESIGN/SETTING

Cross-sectional retrospective analysis of retrospective and nationally-representative data.

PATIENT SAMPLE

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database was queried for all CDF cases from 2011-2020.

OUTCOME MEASURES

CDF patients who experienced a major complication were identified and FTR was calculated as death or hospice disposition within 30 days of a major complication.

METHODS

Frailty was measured by the Risk Analysis Index-Revised (RAI-Rev). Baseline patient demographics and characteristics were compared for all FTR patients. Significant factors were assessed by univariate and multivariable regression for the development of a frailty-driven predictive model for FTR. The discriminative ability of the predictive model was assessed using a receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

There were 3632 CDF patients who suffered a major complication and 7.6% (277 patients) subsequently expired or dispositioned to hospice, the definition of FTR. Independent predictors of FTR were nonelective surgery, frailty, preoperative intubation, thrombosis or embolic complication, unplanned intubation, on ventilator for >48 hours, cardiac arrest, and septic shock. Frailty, and a combination of preoperative and postoperative risk factors in a predictive model for FTR, achieved outstanding discriminatory accuracy (C-statistic = 0.901, CI: 0.883-0.919).

CONCLUSION

Preoperative and postoperative risk factors, combined with frailty, yield a highly accurate predictive model for FTR in CDF patients. Our model may guide surgical management and/or prognostication regarding the likelihood of FTR after a major complication postoperatively with CDF patients. Future studies may determine the predictive ability of this model in other neurosurgical patient populations.

Utility of Hospital Failure to Rescue for Analyzing Variation in Pediatric Postoperative Mortality

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the association between pediatric hospital performances in terms of failure to rescue (FTR), defined as postoperative mortality after a surgical complication, and mortality among patients without a surgical complication.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Forty-eight academic, pediatric hospitals; data obtained from Pediatric Health Information System database (Child Health Corporation of America, Shawnee Mission, KS) (2012-2020).

PATIENTS

Children who underwent at least one of 57 high-risk operations associated with significant postoperative mortality.

EXPOSURES

Hospitals were stratified into quintiles of reliability adjusted FTR (lower than average FTR in quintile 1 [Q1], higher than average FTR in quintile 5 [Q5]). Multivariable hierarchical regression was used to evaluate the association between hospital FTR performance and mortality among patients who did not have a surgical complication.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Among 203,242 children treated across 48 academic hospitals, the complication and overall postoperative mortality rates were 8.8% and 2.3%, respectively. Among patients who had a complication, the FTR rate was 8.8%. Among patients who did not have a complication, the mortality rate was 1.7%. There was a 6.5-fold increase in reliability adjusted FTR between the lowest and highest performing hospitals (lowest FTR hospital-2.7%; 95% CI [1.6-3.9]; highest FTR hospital-17.8% [16.8-18.8]). Complex chronic conditions were highly prevalent across hospitals (Q1, 72.7%; Q2, 73.8%; Q3, 72.2%; Q4, 74.0%; Q5, 74.8%; trend test p < 0.01). Relative to Q1 hospitals, the odds of mortality in the absence of a postoperative complication significantly increased by 33% at Q5 hospitals (odds ratio 1.33; 95% CI [1.07-1.66]). This association was consistent when limited to patients with a complex chronic condition and neonates.

CONCLUSION

FTR may be a useful and valid surgical quality measure for pediatric surgery, even when considering patients without a postoperative complication. These findings suggest practices and processes for preventing FTR at high performing pediatric hospitals might help mitigate the risk of postoperative mortality even in the absence of a postoperative complication.

Racial Disparities in Pediatric Mortality Following Transfusion Within 72 Hours of Operation

BACKGROUND

Postoperative bleeding and transfusion are correlated with mortality risk. Furthermore, postoperative bleeding may often initiate the cascade of complications that leads to death. Given that minority children have increased risk of surgical complications, this study aimed to investigate the association of race with pediatric surgical mortality following postoperative transfusion.

METHODS

We used the NSQIP-P PUF to assemble a retrospective cohort of children <18 who underwent inpatient surgery during 2012-2021. We included White, Black, Hispanic, and 'Other' children who received a transfusion within 72 h of surgery. The primary outcome was defined as all-cause mortality within 30 days following the primary surgical procedure. Using logistic regression models, we estimated the risk-adjusted odds ratio (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of mortality, comparing each racial/ethnic cohort to White children.

RESULTS

A total of 466,230 children <18 years of age underwent inpatient surgical procedures from 2012 to 2021. Of these, 46,200 required transfusion and were included in our analysis. The majority of patients were non-Hispanic White (64.6%, n = 29,850), while 18.9% (n = 8752) were non-Hispanic Black, 11.7% (n = 5387) were Hispanic, and 4.8% (n = 2211) were 'Other' race. The overall rate of mortality following transfusion was 2.5%. White children had the lowest incidence of mortality (2.0%), compared to children of 'Other' race (2.5%), Hispanic children (3.1%), and Black children (3.6%). After adjusting for sex, age, comorbidities, case status, preoperative transfusion within 48 h, and year of operation, we found that Black children experienced 1.24 times the odds of mortality following a postoperative transfusion compared to a White child (aOR: 1.24; 95%CI, 1.03-1.51; P = 0.025). Hispanic children were also significantly more likely to die following a postoperative transfusion than White children (aOR: 1.19; 95%CI, 1.02-1.39; P = 0.027).

CONCLUSION

We found that minority children who required a postoperative transfusion had a higher odds of death than White children. Future studies should explore adverse events following postoperative transfusion and the differences in their management by race that may contribute to the higher mortality rate for minority children.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level II.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER AND REGISTRY

Not applicable.

Adverse Events and Morbidity in a Multidisciplinary Pediatric Robotic Surgery Program. A prospective, Observational Study

OBJECTIVE

To report one-year morbidity of robotic-assisted laparoscopic surgery (RALS) in a dedicated, multidisciplinary, pediatric robotic surgery program. Summary Background Data. RALS in pediatric surgery is expanding, but data on morbidity in children is limited.

METHODS

All children who underwent RALS (Da Vinci Xi, Intuitive Surgical, USA) were prospectively included (October 2016 to May 2020; follow-up ≥1 year). Analyzed data: patient characteristics, surgical indication/procedure, intraoperative adverse events (ClassIntra classification), blood transfusion, hospital stay, postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo).

RESULTS

Three hundred consecutive surgeries were included: urology/gynecology (n=105), digestive surgery (n=83), oncology (n=66), ENT surgery (n=28), thoracic surgery (n=18). Median age and weight at surgery were 9.5 [interquartile range (IQR)=8.8] years and 31 [IQR=29.3] kg, respectively. Over one year, 65 (22%) children presented with ≥1 complication, with Clavien-Dindo ≥III in 14/300 (5%) children at ≤30 days, 7/300 (2%) at 30-90 days, and 12/300 (4%) at >90 days. Perioperative transfusion was necessary in 15 (5%) children, mostly oncological (n=8). Eight (3%) robotic malfunctions were noted, one leading to conversion (laparotomy). Overall conversion rate was 4%. ASA ≥3, weight ≤15 kg, and surgical oncology did not significantly increase the conversion rate, complications, or intraoperative adverse events (ClassIntra ≥2). ASA score was significantly higher in children with complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥III) than without (p=0.01). Median hospital stay was 2 [IQR=3] days. Three children died after a median follow-up of 20 [IQR=16] months.

CONCLUSIONS

RALS is safe, even in the most vulnerable children with a wide scope of indications, age, and weight. Robot-specific complications or malfunctions are scarce.

Hospital Variation in Mortality After Inpatient Pediatric Surgery

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to determine the association between risk adjusted hospital perioperative mortality rates, postoperative complications, and failure to rescue (FTR) after inpatient pediatric surgery.

BACKGROUND

FTR has been identified as a possible explanatory factor for hospital variation in perioperative mortality in adults. However, the extent to which this may be the case for hospitals that perform pediatric surgery is unclear.

METHODS

The Pediatric Health Information System database (2012-2020) was used to identify patients who underwent one of 57 high-risk operations associated with significant perioperative mortality (n=203,242). Academic, pediatric hospitals (n=48) were stratified into quintiles based on risk adjusted inpatient mortality [lower than average, quintile 1 (Q1); higher than average, quintile 5 (Q5)]. Multivariable hierarchical regression was used to evaluate the association between hospital mortality rates, complications, and FTR.

RESULTS

Inpatient mortality, complication, and FTR rates were 2.3%, 8.8%, and 8.8%, respectively. Among all patients who died after surgery, only 34.1% had a preceding complication (Q1, 36.1%; Q2, 31.5%; Q3, 34.7%; Q4, 35.7%; Q5, 32.2%; trend test, P =0.49). The rates of observed mortality significantly increased across hospital quintiles, but the difference was <1% (Q1, 1.9%; Q5; 2.6%; trend test, P <0.01). Relative to Q1 hospitals, the odds of complications were not significantly increased at Q5 hospitals [odds ratio (OR): 1.02 (0.87-1.20)]. By comparison, the odds of FTR was significantly increased at Q5 hospitals [OR: 1.60 (1.30-1.96)] with a dose-response relationship across hospital quintiles [Q2-OR: 0.99 (0.80-1.22); Q3-OR: 1.26 (1.03-1.55); Q4-OR: 1.33 (1.09-1.63)].

CONCLUSIONS

The minority of pediatric surgical deaths are preceded by a postoperative complication, but variation in risk adjusted mortality across academic, pediatric hospitals may be partially explained by differences in the recognition and management of postoperative complications. Additional work is needed to identify children at greatest risk of postoperative death from perioperative complications as opposed to those at risk from pre-existing chronic conditions.

Association of prematurity with complications and failure to rescue in neonatal surgery

BACKGROUND

The majority of failure to rescue (FTR), or death after a postoperative complication, in pediatric surgery occurs among infants and neonates. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the association between gestational age (GA) and FTR in infants and neonates.

METHODS

National cohort study of 46,452 patients < 1 year old within the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric database who underwent inpatient surgery. Patients were categorized as preterm neonates, term neonates, or infants. Neonates were stratified based on GA. Surgical procedures were classified as low- (< 1% mortality) or high-risk (≥ 1%). Multivariable logistic regression and cubic splines were used to evaluate the association between GA and FTR.

RESULTS

Preterm neonates had the highest FTR (28%) rates. Among neonates, FTR increased with decreasing GA (≥ 37 weeks, 12%; 33-36 weeks, 15%; 29-32 weeks, 30%; 25-28 weeks 41%; ≤ 24 weeks, 57%). For both low- and high-risk procedures, FTR significantly (trend test, p < 0.01) increased with decreasing GA. When stratifying preterm neonates by GA, all GAs ≤ 28 weeks were associated with significantly higher odds of FTR for low- (OR 2.47, 95% CI [1.38-4.41]) and high-risk (OR 2.27, 95% CI [1.33-3.87]) procedures. A lone inflection point for FTR was identified at 31-32 weeks with cubic spline analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The dose-dependent relationship between decreasing GA and FTR as well as the FTR inflection point noted at GA 31-32 weeks can be used by stakeholders in designing quality improvement initiatives and directing perioperative care.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level IV, Retrospective cohort study.