Hydra effects in discrete-time models of stable communities

Infection-induced increases to population size during cycles in a discrete-time epidemic model

One-dimensional discrete-time population models, such as those that involve Logistic or Ricker growth, can exhibit periodic and chaotic dynamics. Expanding the system by one dimension to incorporate epidemiological interactions causes an interesting complexity of new behaviors. Here, we examine a discrete-time two-dimensional susceptible-infectious (SI) model with Ricker growth and show that the introduction of infection can not only produce a distinctly different bifurcation structure than that of the underlying disease-free system but also lead to counter-intuitive increases in population size. We use numerical bifurcation analysis to determine the influence of infection on the location and types of bifurcations. In addition, we examine the appearance and extent of a phenomenon known as the 'hydra effect,' i.e., increases in total population size when factors, such as mortality, that act negatively on a population, are increased. Previous work, primarily focused on dynamics at fixed points, showed that the introduction of infection that reduces fecundity to the SI model can lead to a so-called 'infection-induced hydra effect.' Our work shows that even in such a simple two-dimensional SI model, the introduction of infection that alters fecundity or mortality can produce dynamics can lead to the appearance of a hydra effect, particularly when the disease-free population is at a cycle.

Mechanism-centric regulatory network identifies NME2 and MYC programs as markers of Enzalutamide resistance in CRPC

Heterogeneous response to Enzalutamide, a second-generation androgen receptor signaling inhibitor, is a central problem in castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) management. Genome-wide systems investigation of mechanisms that govern Enzalutamide resistance promise to elucidate markers of heterogeneous treatment response and salvage therapies for CRPC patients. Focusing on the de novo role of MYC as a marker of Enzalutamide resistance, here we reconstruct a CRPC-specific mechanism-centric regulatory network, connecting molecular pathways with their upstream transcriptional regulatory programs. Mining this network with signatures of Enzalutamide response identifies NME2 as an upstream regulatory partner of MYC in CRPC and demonstrates that NME2-MYC increased activities can predict patients at risk of resistance to Enzalutamide, independent of co-variates. Furthermore, our experimental investigations demonstrate that targeting MYC and its partner NME2 is beneficial in Enzalutamide-resistant conditions and could provide an effective strategy for patients at risk of Enzalutamide resistance and/or for patients who failed Enzalutamide treatment.

Disease-Induced Hydra Effect with Overcompensatory Recruitment

In ecological systems, the hydra effect is an increase in population size caused by an increase in mortality. This seemingly counterintuitive effect has been observed in several populations, including fish, blowflies, snails and plants, and has been modeled in both continuous and discrete time. A similar effect induced by disease has recently been observed empirically. Here we present theoretical and simulation results for an infectious disease-induced hydra effect, namely conditions under which the total population size, composed of those that are infectious as well as those that are susceptible, at an endemic equilibrium is greater than the population size at the disease-free equilibrium. (For an endemic k-cycle, this can be similarly defined using the average population.) We find this disease-induced hydra effect occurs when the intra-specific competition is strong and disease infection sufficiently inhibits the reproductive output of infected individuals. For our continuous time model, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for a disease-induced hydra effect. This condition requires overcompensatory recruitment. With a discrete time model, we show there is no disease-induced hydra effect without overcompensatory recruitment. We illustrate by simulations that a disease-induced hydra effect may occur with Ricker recruitment when the endemic system converges to either a fixed equilibrium or a 2-cycle.

The interplay between fishery yield and top predator culling in a multispecies fishery context

In food webs, fishery can play the role of top predator, competing thus with other top predators for valuable food resources. In this view, it has been claimed in fisheries management that culling of top predators can be a means to improve fishery yield. To investigate this hypothesis, we use theoretical population models to assess in a multispecies context how fishery yield from target species harvest responds to top predator cull. Defying crisp summary, the four analysed food web models show that this response may be either positive or negative or both, indicating that in terms of multispecies fishery management the harvest yield may not accrue as a consequence of predator removal. In addition, this multitude of behaviours points also to the fact that the response of fishery yield to top predator cull may be difficult to assess.