Coral reefs in the Gulf are mostly dead now, but can we do anything about it?

Status, threats, and conservation considerations of selected marine habitats and organisms in the Arabian/Persian Gulf

Many studies indicated that marine habitats and organisms in the Arabian/Persian Gulf ('Gulf') are broadly deteriorating. However, this likely results from the generalization of a few declining habitats or organisms in some locations. Here, we conduct a review to evaluate the status of selected habitats (mangroves, seagrasses, and coral reefs) and organisms (exploited bony fish, sharks, rays, dolphins, whales, and dugongs) and identify major threats to them in each Gulf country (except Iraq and Oman). We show that out of 52 habitats and organisms in the six countries, the predominant status (63.5%) is "Data-deficient", followed by "Decline" (21.2%) and "Increase-stable" (15.4%). The major threats to these habitats and organisms are coastal development, desalination plants, climate change, and fishing. However, our findings differentiate that some of these threats are causing severe degradation (i.e., have "Observed" impacts) while other threats, such as desalination plants, have potential impacts that are derived from laboratory experiments or modelling work. Our results can be used to guide conservation efforts in the region.

Development of standards for assessing water quality in marine coastal waters of Bahrain

Marine coastal waters of Bahrain are under pressure due to human activities and climate change. We used marine monitoring data (2005-2020) from 27 sites to establish baseline conditions and develop standards for assessments of water quality. Five hydrodynamic regions were identified: Oyster Beds, North, West, East, East (Coastal). Data from Oyster Beds sites, likely to be less impacted by human activities, were used to determine baseline conditions. For most parameters, candidate thresholds were based on 50 % and 100 % variation from baseline and 95th percentiles. Comparisons of data against different thresholds showed different outcomes. Overall, results indicate good water quality, with potential concerns in East (Coastal). Trend analyses showed some significant trends in all regions: downward (favourable) for some parameters (e.g. turbidity: North) and upward for others (e.g. nitrate: Oyster Beds, East and East (Coastal)). Future work requires greater understanding around optimum guidelines that protect and mitigate any adverse ecological impacts.

Community Structures of Benthic Macrofauna in Reclaimed and Natural Intertidal Areas in Bahrain, Arabian Gulf

Costal reclamation has been carried out extensively along the coastlines of the Arabian Gulf during the last decades. As a small archipelago country, coastal reclamation continues to be a major option for securing land to meet the needs of the expanding population and economic development in Bahrain. Macrobenthic communities often reflect the integrity of ecosystems as they respond to natural and anthropogenic stressors. This study characterized the community structures of macrobenthic invertebrates in three reclaimed intertidal areas and a protected natural mudflat in Bahrain (August 2019 and December 2020). Macrobenthic community structures and sediment characteristics differed significantly between natural and reclaimed areas. A total of 43 species were recorded in the four study areas, of which 38 were collected from the natural mudflat. Polychaetes dominated macrobenthic communities, followed by molluscs and crustaceans. Polychaetes accounted for more than 90% of the communities in the reclaimed coastal areas. Macrobenthic monitoring is considered essential for detecting changes in coastal and marine ecosystems due to dredging and reclamation activities along the coastlines of the Arabian Gulf. The findings of this study can provide insights into the ecological dynamics of macrobenthic communities in reclaimed coastal areas for environmental monitoring and coastal planning and management in the Arabian Gulf.

Coral reefs at Sir Bu Nair Island: An offshore refuge of Acropora in the southern Arabian Gulf

Coral reefs across the southern Arabian Gulf have declined in the past two decades, with extensive loss of formerly Acropora table corals, which are now functionally extinct in nearshore reefs. This study documents the coral community at Sir Bu Nair (SBN), an offshore island buffered by less extreme environmental conditions, which contains the last remaining large stands of Acropora in the southern Gulf. We found that Acropora is a major reef-building coral throughout SBN. Mean coral cover was 27% (range: 6%-49%) across all sites and depths, of which more than half was comprised by Acropora. This varied around the island, with the highest densities to the south and southwest in shallow waters. Our study provides essential information for the management and conservation of these highly valuable and vulnerable corals.

Is the development of desalination compatible with sustainable development of the Arabian Gulf?

The development of desalination has been essential to the rapid economic development of the countries bordering the Arabian Gulf. The current production capacity of sea water desalination plants drawing water from Gulf is over 20 million m³ day^-1, which may rise to 80 million m³ day^-1 by 2050. Whilst supporting aspects of sustainable development related to water and sanitation, desalination impacts the marine environment through impingement and entrainment of organisms in intakes, and through thermal, brine and chemical discharges. This may compromise other objectives for sustainable development related to sustainable use of the oceans. Under business as usual scenarios, by 2050, the impact of individual desalination plants will combine causing a regional scale impact. Without mitigating actions to avoid the business as usual scenario, by 2050, desalination in combination with climate change, will elevate coastal water temperatures across more than 50% of the Gulf by at least 3 °C, and a volume of water equivalent to more than a third of the total volume of water between 0 and 10 m deep will pass through desalination plants each year. This will adversely impact the coastal ecosystem of the Gulf, with impacts on biodiversity, fisheries and coastal communities and may cause potential loss of species and habitats from the Gulf. Given the significant implications of these preliminary findings, and in light of the precautionary approach to management, it is recommended that mitigating options addressing behavioural, regulatory and technological change are rapidly evaluated and implemented to avoid the development of desalination in the region along a business as usual pathway, and multidisciplinary research studies should be conducted to reduce uncertainty in predictions of future impacts.

Kuwait's marine biodiversity: Qualitative assessment of indicator habitats and species

The tropical waters of the Northern Arabian Gulf have a long history of maritime resource richness. High levels of biodiversity result from the complex matrix of coastal habitats, coral reefs and sea grass beds that characterise the region. Insight into the ongoing health of such habitats and the broader Kuwait maritime environment can be gauged by the status of indicator species found within these habitats. Here we review information on the occurrence, distribution and threats to key marine habitats and associated indicator species to provide an updated assessment of the state of the Kuwait's marine biodiversity. Critical evaluation of historic data highlights knowledge gaps needed inform the focus of future monitoring and conservation efforts. This assessment is designed to evaluate performance against environmental policy commitments, while providing a solid foundation for the design of comprehensive marine ecosystem management strategies.

Modeling the combined impact of climate change and sea-level rise on general circulation and residence time in a semi-enclosed sea

This study provides an assessment of possible changes in the general circulation and residence time in the Persian Gulf under potential future sea-level rise and changes in the wind field due to the climate change. To determine the climate-change-induced impacts, Mike 3 Flow Model FM was used to simulate hydrodynamic and transport processes in the Persian Gulf in both historical (1998-2014) and future periods (2081-2100). Historical simulation was driven by ERA-Interim data. A statistical approach was employed to modify the values and directions of the future wind field obtained from the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) scenarios derived from CMCC-CM model of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The numerical model was calibrated and validated using measured data. Results indicated that in the historical period, residence time ranged between values of less than a month in the Strait of Hormuz and 10 years in the semi-enclosed area close to the south of Bahrain. The changes in wind field based on RCP 8.5 scenario were found to be the most disadvantageous for the Persian Gulf's capacity to flush dissolved pollutants out. Under this scenario, residence time would be 17% longer than that of historical one. This is mainly because the change in the wind field is large enough to overwhelm general circulation, showing a relationship between the residence time and the residual circulation. Impact of change in the wind field according to RCP 4.5 scenario on the modeled residence time is negligible. The numerical outputs also showed that the sea-level rise would slightly decrease the current velocity, resulting in a negligible increase in residence time. The findings of this study are intended to support establishing climate-adaptation management plans for coastal zones of the studied area in line with sustainable development goals.

Sources, spatial distribution and characteristics of marine litter along the west coast of Qatar

The spatial distribution, sources and characteristics of marine litter (ML) from 36 locations spread over 12 beaches along the west coast of Qatar have been assessed. A total of 2376 ML items with varying sizes were found with an average abundance of 1.98 items/m². The order of abundance of ML along the coast was as follows: plastics (71.4%) > metal (9.3%) > glass (5.1%) > paper (4.4%) > fabric (4.0%) > rubber (3.9%) > processed wood (2.0%). Locations in the south and northwest coasts of Qatar had significantly higher concentrations of ML. Surprisingly, nearly 47% of the beached polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles were derived from the countries bordering the Arabian/Persian Gulf (Gulf), and most of them were produced in the last 2 years. The plastic materials were drifted by winds and currents to the Qatar coast. Gulf circulation provides evidence to the pathways of ML beached on the Qatar coast.

Population dynamics of the reef crisis: Consequences of the growing human population

An unequivocal link exists between human population density and environmental degradation, both in the near field (local impacts) and far field (impacts due to teleconnections). Human population is most widely predicted to reach 9-11 billion by 2100, when the demographic transition is expected in all but a handful of countries. Strongest population growth is in the tropics, where coral reefs face dense human population and concomitant heavy usage. In most countries, >50% will be urbanized but growth of rural population and need for food in urban centres will not alleviate pressure on reef resources. Aquaculture will alleviate some fishing pressure, but still utilizes reef surface and is also destructive. Denser coastal populations and greater wealth will lead to reef degradation by coastal construction. Denser populations inland will lead to more runoff and siltation. Effects of human perturbations can be explored with metapopulation theory since they translate to increases in patch-mortality and decreases in patch-colonization (=regeneration). All such changes will result in a habitat with overall fewer settled patches, so fewer live reefs. If rescue effects are included, bifurcations in system dynamics will allow for many empty patches and, depending on system state relative to stable and unstable equilibria, a part-empty system may either trend towards stability at higher patch occupancy or extinction. Thus, unless the disturbance history is known, it may be difficult to assess the direction of system trajectory-making management difficult. If habitat is decreased by destruction, rescue effects become even more important as extinction-debt, accumulated by efficient competitors with weaker dispersal ability, is realized. Easily visible trends in human population dynamics combined with well-established and tested ecological theory give a clear, intuitive, yet quantifiable guide to the severity of survival challenges faced by coral reefs. Management challenges and required actions can be clearly shown and, contrary to frequent claims, no scientific ambiguity exists with regards to the serious threat posed to coral reefs by humankind's continued numerical increase.

Biophysical model of coral population connectivity in the Arabian/Persian Gulf

The coral reef ecosystems of the Arabian/Persian Gulf (the Gulf) are facing profound pressure from climate change (extreme temperatures) and anthropogenic (land-use and population-related) stressors. Increasing degradation at local and regional scales has already resulted in widespread coral cover reduction. Connectivity, the transport and exchange of larvae among geographically separated populations, plays an essential role in recovery and maintenance of biodiversity and resilience of coral reef populations. Here, an oceanographic model in 3-D high-resolution was used to simulate particle dispersion of "virtual larvae." We investigated the potential physical connectivity of coral reefs among different regions in the Gulf. Simulations reveal that basin-scale circulation is responsible for broader spatial dispersion of the larvae in the central region of the Gulf, and tidally-driven currents characterized the more localized connectivity pattern in regions along the shores in the Gulf's southern part. Results suggest predominant self-recruitment of reefs with highest source and sink ratios along the Bahrain and western Qatar coasts, followed by the south eastern Qatar and continental Abu Dhabi coast. The central sector of the Gulf is suggested as recruitment source in a stepping-stone dynamics. Recruitment intensity declined moving away from the Straits of Hormuz. Connectivity varied in models assuming passive versus active mode of larvae movement. This suggests that larval behaviour needs to be taken into consideration when establishing dispersion models, and establishing conservation strategies for these vulnerable ecosystems.

Marine plastic litter in the ROPME Sea Area: Current knowledge and recommendations

The impact of marine litter, particularly plastic waste, is widely acknowledged as a growing global concern. Marine litter is an understudied issue in the Regional Organisation for Protection of the Marine Environment (ROPME) Sea Area where rapid economic growth has already placed considerable stress on infrastructure and coastal ecosystems. This paper outlines some of the drivers for waste generation in region and reviews the available literature to summarise the current state of knowledge on the environmental fate, behaviour and impact of marine litter within the ROPME Sea Area. While data is limited, those studies conducted demonstrate marine litter is posing a clear and growing threat to the environmental and socioeconomic prosperity of the ROPME Sea Area. The development of regional and national marine litter reduction plans are clearly a priority to focus and coordinate activity across multiple stakeholders. Discussion of the potential environmental impacts arising as a result of marine litter are presented together with a roadmap for establishing and implementing a ROPME Sea Area Marine Litter and Single-Use Plastic Action Plan.

Towards more sustainable coastal development in the Arabian Gulf: Opportunities for ecological engineering in an urbanized seascape

The coastlines of many Arabian cities are now dominated by structures such as seawalls, breakwaters and jetties as urbanization has expanded rapidly in the region. Coastal development has substantially degraded the mangrove forests, saltmarshes, seagrass meadows, oyster beds and coral reefs that traditionally provided invaluable ecosystem goods and services to coastal trading villages of the Arabian Gulf. Regional awareness of environmental issues is growing, however, and local governments are increasingly promoting more sustainable urban development. The use of ecological engineering approaches, along with improved environmental policies, may mitigate some past impacts, and will potentially create new development projects with greater ecological benefits for more sustainable growth in the future. In this paper, we discuss past coastal development in the Gulf, and offer advice on how ecological engineering could be used to enhance the ecological benefits of coastal infrastructure, particularly by encouraging the colonization of juvenile corals and fishes. Such approaches can encourage more sustainable development of this increasingly urbanized seascape.

Population collapse dynamics in Acropora downingi, an Arabian/Persian Gulf ecosystem-engineering coral, linked to rising temperature

As in the tropical Atlantic, Acropora populations in the southern Persian/Arabian Gulf plummeted within two decades after having been ecosystem engineers on most wave-exposed reefs since the Pleistocene. Since 1996/1998 live coral cover in the Gulf declined by over 90% in many areas, primarily due to bleaching and diseases caused by rising temperatures. In the formerly dominant table-coral species A. downingi, population dynamics corresponding to disturbance regimes was quantified in three transition matrices (lower disturbance pre-1996; moderate disturbance from 1998 to 2010 and 2013 to 2017, disturbed in 1996/1998, 2010/11/12, 2017). Increased disturbance frequency and severity caused progressive reduction in coral size, cover, and population fecundity. Small size-classes were bolstered more by partial colony mortality than sexual recruitment. Some large corals had a size refuge and resisted die-back but were also lost with increasing disturbance. Matrix and biophysical larval flow models suggested one metapopulation. Southern, Arabian, populations could be connected to northern, Iranian, populations but this connectivity was lost under assumptions of pelagic larval duration at rising temperatures shortened to a third. Then, the metapopulation disintegrated into isolated populations. Connectivity required to avoid extinctions increased exponentially with disturbance frequency and correlation of disturbances across the metapopulation. Populations became unsustainable at eight disturbances in 15 years, when even highest theoretical recruitment no longer compensated mortality. This lethal disturbance frequency was 3-fold that of the moderately disturbed monitoring period and 4-fold of the preceding low-disturbance period-suggesting ongoing shortening of the disturbance-free period. Observed population collapse and environmental changes in the Gulf suggest that A. downingi is heading toward at least functional extinction mainly due to increasingly frequent temperature-induced mortality events, clearly linked to climate change.

Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and society in the Arabian Gulf

Climate change–reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions–is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a ‘business-as-usual’ climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of potential climate change impacts on the region’s diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Gulf, with projections differing only slightly among models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region.

Mapping of the corals around Hendorabi Island (Persian Gulf), using WorldView-2 standard imagery coupled with field observations

High spatial resolution WorldView-2 (WV2) satellite imagery coupled with field observations have been utilized for mapping the coral reefs around Hendorabi Island in the northern Persian Gulf. In doing so, three standard multispectral bands (red, green, and blue) were selected to produce a classified map for benthic habitats. The in-situ observations were included photo-transects taken by snorkeling in water surface and manta tow technique. The satellite image has been classified using support vector machine (SVM) classifier by considering the information obtained from field measurements as both training and control points data. The results obtained from manta tow demonstrated that the mean total live hard coral coverage was 29.04% ± 2.44% around the island. Massive corals poritiids (20.70%) and branching corals acroporiids (20.33%) showed higher live coral coverage compared to other corals. Moreover, the map produced from satellite image illustrated the distribution of habitats with 78.1% of overall accuracy.

Cross shelf benthic biodiversity patterns in the Southern Red Sea

The diversity of coral reef and soft sediment ecosystems in the Red Sea has to date received limited scientific attention. This study investigates changes in the community composition of both reef and macrobenthic communities along a cross shelf gradient. Coral reef assemblages differed significantly in species composition and structure with location and depth. Inner shelf reefs harbored less abundant and less diverse coral assemblages with higher percentage macroalgae cover. Nutrient availability and distance from the shoreline were significantly related to changes in coral composition and structure. This study also observed a clear inshore offshore pattern for soft sediment communities. In contrast to the coral reef patterns the highest diversity and abundance of soft sediment communities were recorded at the inshore sites, which were characterized by a higher number of opportunistic polychaete species and bivalves indicative of mild disturbance. Sediment grain size and nutrient enrichment were important variables explaining the variability. This study aims to contribute to our understanding of ecosystem processes and biodiversity in the Red Sea region in an area that also has the potential to provide insight into pressing topics, such as the capacity of reef systems and benthic macrofaunal organisms to adapt to global climate change.