Preparing for the unprecedented - Towards quantitative oil risk assessment in the Arctic marine areas

An overview of scholarly literature on navigation hazards in Arctic shipping routes

Maritime transport plays a crucial role in international trade. As the number and tonnage of ships continue to increase, traditional shipping routes are becoming progressively congested. The development of Arctic shipping routes has the potential to significantly improve trade efficiency and decrease reliance on traditional shipping routes. At the same time, the harsh navigation conditions in the Arctic pose a huge challenge to ships crossing the Arctic shipping routes. To address the above issues, this paper reviews the natural, navigational environment and unique navigational modes of ships in the Arctic shipping routes. Furthermore, the navigational risks caused by factors including low temperature, sea ice, poor visibility, communication, lack of infrastructure, lack of navigational experience, lack of historical data, high collision risk, and complex navigational environment are summarized and analyzed, providing a reference for researchers and policymakers to conduct research related to Arctic shipping routes.

A systematic review of the impacts of oil spillage on residents of oil-producing communities in Nigeria

Oil spillage is common in oil-producing communities of Nigeria, and it impacts negatively on the residents of these communities. This study analysed available research data on oil spillage incidents in these communities to determine their main causes and impacts on the residents. This study highlights the immediate and long-term consequences of oil spills on residents of oil-host communities in Nigeria. A systematic review of published studies was carried out, and 22 studies were identified from the literature search. The main causes of oil spills were identified as sabotage (87%), leakage from corroded pipelines (62%), and equipment failure (45%). Others were mystery spills and operational failures. Unemployment, abject poverty, marginalization, and inaction of government regulatory agencies are enabling factors for sabotage and vandalism of oil pipelines. It was found that exposure to oil spills impacts directly and indirectly on residents of oil-host communities, with accompanying health, socioeconomic, and environmental implications. Oil spills in these communities impact on all facets of their life, thereby infringing on their rights to existence and survival. The major interventions were targeted at improving health services, education, infrastructure, skill acquisition, and employment. These in turn reduced the occurrence of violence, insurgency, and human trafficking in the oil-producing communities. It is recommended that government regulatory agencies should be revamped and repositioned to effectively perform their duties. Interventions should be targeted at addressing the causes of agitation by indigenes by involving them in the decision-making process. Also, appropriate remediation strategies should be adopted to clean up the oil spills.

Potential benefits of climate change on navigation in the northern sea route by 2050

Climate change has been inducing a continuous increase in temperatures within the Arctic region, consequently leading to an escalation in the rates of Arctic ice depletion. These changes have profound implications for navigation along the Arctic Northern Sea Route (NSR). However, access to the NSR is constrained to specific temporal intervals when the sea ice thickness reaches a threshold that permits safe passage of ships. This research employs climate change model simulations and the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System framework to investigate the navigational feasibility of diverse ship types along NSR during the calendar years 2030, 2040, and 2050, under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Different ship categories were analyzed within the context of these two scenarios. Results indicate considerable variation in the navigability of different ship categories across different scenarios and years. In general, polar ships demonstrate a higher navigational potential throughout most of the year, while pleasure crafts are constrained to specific periods. These findings bear significant implications for the future of shipping along the NSR. As Arctic ice continues to melt, NSR is anticipated to become more accessible to ships, albeit with navigational availability remaining contingent on the ship category and seasonal considerations.

An ecotoxicological risk model for the microplastics in arctic waters

The risk posed to Arctic marine life by microplastics, a Contaminants of Emerging Arctic Concern (CEAC), is poorly known. The reason is the limited understanding of the dose-response relationship due to the region's peculiar environmental and geophysical properties and the unique physiological properties of the species living there. The properties of microplastics in the region and their distribution across the oceanic profile further complicate the problem. This paper addresses the knowledge gap by proposing a novel comprehensive ecotoxicity model. The model uses oxidative stress caused by the Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) to assess cell mortality. Cell mortality has been used as an indicator of ecological risk. The model is implemented in the Bayesian Network (BN) framework to evaluate the cytotoxicity, measured as the probability of causing mortality. The work enhances the understanding and assessment of the cytotoxicity of microplastics in polar cod and associated risks.

Energy Resources Exploitation in the Russian Arctic: Challenges and Prospects for the Sustainable Development of the Ecosystem

According to the forecasts made by IEA, BP, and Total in early 2021, the demand for hydrocarbons will continue for decades, and their share in the global energy balance will remain significant. Russia, as a key player in the energy market, is interested in maintaining and increasing hydrocarbon production, so further exploitation of the Arctic energy resources is an urgent issue. A large number of onshore oil and gas projects have been successfully implemented in the Arctic since the 1930s, while recently, special attention has been paid to the offshore energy resources and implementation of natural gas liquefaction projects. However, the implementation of oil and gas projects in the Arctic is characterized by a negative impact on the environment, which leads to a violation of the ecological balance in the Arctic, and affects the stability of its ecosystem, which is one of the most vulnerable ecosystems on the planet. The main goal of the present study is to understand how the implementation of oil and gas projects in the Arctic affects the ecosystem, to assess the significance of this process, and to find out what the state and business could do to minimize it. In the article, the authors analyze energy trends, provide brief information about important oil and gas projects being implemented in the Arctic region of Russia, and investigate the challenges of the oil and gas projects’ development and its negative impacts on the Arctic environment. The main contributions of this paper are the identification of all possible environmental risks and processes accompanying oil and gas production, and its qualitative analysis and recommendations for the state and business to reduce the negative impact of oil and gas projects on the Arctic ecosystem. The research methodology includes desk studies, risk management tools (such as risk analysis, registers, and maps), brainstorming, the expert method, systematization, comparative analysis, generalization, and grouping.

Decision support tools for oil spill response (OSR-DSTs): Approaches, challenges, and future research perspectives

Marine oil spills pose a significant threat to ocean and coastal ecosystems. In addition to costs incurred by response activities, an economic burden could be experienced by stakeholders dependent on coastal resources. Decision support tools for oil spill response (OSR-DSTs) have been playing an important role during oil spill response operations. This paper aims to provide an insight into the status of research on OSR-DSTs and identify future directions. Specifically, a systematic review is conducted including an examination of the advantages and limitations of currently applied and emerging decision support techniques for oil spill response. In response to elevated environmental concerns for protecting the polar ecosystem, the review includes a discussion on the use of OSR-DSTs in cold regions. Based on the analysis of information acquired, recommendations for future work on the development of OSR-DSTs to support the selection and implementation of spill response options are presented.

A food chain-based ecological risk assessment model for oil spills in the Arctic environment

This paper investigates the linkage between the acute impacts on apex marine mammals with polar cod responses to an oil spill. It proposes a Bayesian network-based model to link these direct and indirect effects on the apex marine mammals. The model predicts a recruitment collapse (for the scenarios considered), causing a higher risk of mortality of polar bears, beluga whales, and Narwhals in the Arctic region. Whales (adult and calves) were predicted to be at higher risk when the spill was under thick ice, while adult polar bears were at higher risk when the spill occurred on thin ice. A spill over the thick ice caused the least risk to whale and adult polar bears. The spill's timing and location have a significant impact on the animals in the Arctic region due to its unique sea ice dynamics, simple food web, and short periods of food abundance.

Implementing Bayesian networks for ISO 31000:2018-based maritime oil spill risk management: State-of-art, implementation benefits and challenges, and future research directions

The risk of a large-scale oil spill remains significant in marine environments as international maritime transport continues to grow. The environmental as well as the socio-economic impacts of a large-scale oil spill could be substantial. Oil spill models and modeling tools for Pollution Preparedness and Response (PPR) can support effective risk management. However, there is a lack of integrated approaches that consider oil spill risks comprehensively, learn from all information sources, and treat the system uncertainties in an explicit manner. Recently, the use of the international ISO 31000:2018 risk management framework has been suggested as a suitable basis for supporting oil spill PPR risk management. Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical models that express uncertainty in a probabilistic form and can thus support decision-making processes when risks are complex and data are scarce. While BNs have increasingly been used for oil spill risk assessment (OSRA) for PPR, no link between the BNs literature and the ISO 31000:2018 framework has previously been made. This study explores how Bayesian risk models can be aligned with the ISO 31000:2018 framework by offering a flexible approach to integrate various sources of probabilistic knowledge. In order to gain insight in the current utilization of BNs for oil spill risk assessment and management (OSRA-BNs) for maritime oil spill preparedness and response, a literature review was performed. The review focused on articles presenting BN models that analyze the occurrence of oil spills, consequence mitigation in terms of offshore and shoreline oil spill response, and impacts of spills on the variables of interest. Based on the results, the study discusses the benefits of applying BNs to the ISO 31000:2018 framework as well as the challenges and further research needs.

Ecological risk assessment at the food web scale: A case study of a mercury contaminated oilfield

Mercury, particularly methylmercury, can accumulate through food webs and generate high risks for species at higher trophic levels. Inorganic mercury can be methylated into the organic species methylmercury if suitable reducing conditions exist, for example, in hotspots like oilfields. We developed a conceptual model to conduct an ecological risk assessment based on the food web structure of the Shengli oilfield area, China. The model can identify species at risk and elucidate the sources of risks according to their diet. A risk rating criteria was developed based on the food web structure to categorize the different levels of risks for different species. As expected, the results indicate increasing risks for the biota higher in the food web hierarchy. Grasshoppers were mostly at no risk throughout the study area, whereas grubs at southwest were at minimal risks due to local high Hg concentration in the soil. Mantises, which are insect predators, were also at minimal risk. Herbivorous birds with similar feeding habits than grasshoppers were at no risk, but omnivorous and carnivorous birds were at moderate risk. The conceptual model is a useful tool to improve pollution remediation and establish risk control strategies based on ecological risks of the food web rather than just Hg concentrations in the environment.

Ecological Risk Assessment of Oil Spills in Ice-Covered Waters: A Surface Slick Model Coupled with a Food-Web Bioaccumulation Model

The limited knowledge on oil-ice interactions and on the ecological outcomes of oil spills in the Arctic represent sources of uncertainties for shipping and oil and gas activities in polar regions. The present work aims at the definition of the ecological risk posed by oil spills in the Arctic by the integration of an improved surface slick model to a fugacity-based food-web bioaccumulation model for icy waters. The model's outcomes are the representation of transport and weathering processes and the concentrations of a toxic component of oil, namely naphthalene, in the environmental media as a function of ice conditions. Given those concentrations, the associated ecological risk is defined in terms of the bioconcentration factor (BCF). Overall, the model predicted low bioaccumulation and biomagnification potential for naphthalene to a hypothetical Arctic food web, regardless of the ice concentration. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2020;16:729-744. © 2020 SETAC.

A Framework for Integrating Life-Safety and Environmental Consequences into Conventional Arctic Shipping Risk Models

The International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code) was adopted by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and entered into force on 1 January 2017. It provides a comprehensive treatment of topics relevant to ships operating in Polar regions. From a design perspective, in scenarios where ice exposure and the consequences of ice-induced damage are the same, it is rational to require the same ice class and structural performance for such vessels. Design requirements for different ice class vessels are provided in the Polar Code. The Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) methodology provided in the Polar Code offers valuable guidance regarding operational limits for ice class vessels in different ice conditions. POLARIS has been shown to well reflect structural risk, and serves as a valuable decision support tool for operations and route planning. At the same time, the current POLARIS methodology does not directly account for the potential consequences resulting from a vessel incurring ice-induced damage. While two vessels of the same ice class operating in the same ice conditions would have similar structural risk profiles, the overall risk profile of each vessel will depend on the magnitude of consequences, should an incident or accident occur. In this paper, a new framework is presented that augments the current POLARIS methodology to model consequences. It has been developed on the premise that vessels of a given class with higher potential life-safety, environmental, or socio-economic consequences should be operated more conservatively. The framework supports voyage planning and real-time operational decision making through assignment of operational criteria based on the likelihood of ice-induced damage and the potential consequences. The objective of this framework is to enhance the safety of passengers and crews and the protection of the Arctic environment and its stakeholders. The challenges associated with establishing risk perspectives and evaluating consequences for Arctic ship operations are discussed. This methodology proposes a pragmatic pathway to link ongoing scientific research with risk-based methods to help inform recommended practices and decision support tools. Example scenarios are considered to illustrate the flexibility of the methodology in accounting for varied risk profiles for different vessel types, as well as incorporating input from local communities and risk and environmental impact assessments.

Dynamic ecological risk modelling of hydrocarbon release scenarios in Arctic waters

The Arctic is an ecologically diverse area that is increasingly vulnerable to damages from oil spills associated with commercial vessels traversing newly open shipping lanes. The significance of such accidents on Arctic marine habitats and the potential for recovery can be examined using ecological risk assessment (ERA) coupled with a dynamic object-oriented Bayesian network (DOOBN). A DOOBN approach is useful to represent the probabilistic relationships inherent in the interactions between key events associated with an oil spill, including oil dispersion from the source, ice-oil slick interactions, seawater-oil slick formation, sedimentation, and exposures to different aquatic life. From such analysis, a probabilistic cost analysis can be performed to examine the theoretical cost of habitat services lost and restored. The application of an ERA-DOOBN model to assess oil spills in the Arctic is demonstrated using a case study. The utility of the model output for determining habitat restoration costs and developing policy guidelines for ecological response measures in the Arctic is also discussed.

Impacts of Oil Spills on Arctic Marine Ecosystems: A Quantitative and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Perspective

Oil spills resulting from maritime accidents pose a poorly understood risk to the Arctic environment. We propose a novel probabilistic method to quantitatively assess these risks. Our method accounts for spatiotemporally varying population distributions, the spreading of oil, and seasonally varying species-specific exposure potential and sensitivity to oil. It quantifies risk with explicit uncertainty estimates, enables one to compare risks over large geographic areas, and produces information on a meaningful scale for decision-making. We demonstrate the method by assessing the short-term risks oil spills pose to polar bears, ringed seals, and walrus in the Kara Sea, the western part of the Northern Sea Route. The risks differ considerably between species, spatial locations, and seasons. Our results support current aspirations to ban heavy fuel oil in the Arctic but show that we should not underestimate the risks of lighter oils either, as these oils can pollute larger areas than heavier ones. Our results also highlight the importance of spatially explicit season-specific oil spill risk assessment in the Arctic and that environmental variability and the lack of data are a major source of uncertainty related to the oil spill impacts.

Smooth or smothering? The self-cleaning potential and photosynthetic effects of oil spill on arctic macro-algae Fucus distichus

Due to increased sea transport and offshore gas and oil exploration, the Arctic is facing an unprecedented risk of marine oil spills. Although beached oil spills can lead to acute and chronic impacts on intertidal ecosystems, the effects of oil spills on macro-algae in Arctic ecosystems is lacking. Here, we assessed the effect and response of the tidal macro-algae Fucus distichus to oiling, i.e. self-cleaning potential by seawater wash and photosynthetic activity. Oiling with four oil types (ANS, Grane, IFO30 and MGO) was simulated by exposing F. distichus tips to oil. Oil removal half-times ranged between 0.8 - 4.5 days, indicating that oiling of macro-algae with the tested oils was short-term. Further, Grane oil mostly inhibited photosynthetic activity whereas oil from ANS, IFO30 and MGO stimulated it. The photosynthetic activity of F. distichus continued to be affected (inhibited or stimulated), even after oil on the tip surface was washed off.

Environmental Decision Support Systems for Monitoring Small Scale Oil Spills: Existing Solutions, Best Practices and Current Challenges

In recent years, large oil spills have received widespread media attention, while small and micro oil spills are usually only acknowledged by the authorities and local citizens who are directly or indirectly affected by these pollution events. However, small oil spills represent the vast majority of oil pollution events. In this paper, multiple oil spill typologies are introduced, and existing frameworks and methods used as best practices for facing them are reviewed and discussed. Specific tools based on information and communication technologies are then presented, considering in particular those which can be used as integrated frameworks for the specific challenges of the environmental monitoring of smaller oil spills. Finally, a prototype case study actually designed and implemented for the management of existing monitoring resources is reported. This case study helps improve the discussion over the actual challenges of early detection and support to the responsible parties and stakeholders in charge of intervention and remediation operations.

Effects of oil spills on fish production in the Niger Delta

The Niger Delta region is the oil producing area of Nigeria, which consists of highly diverse ecosystems that are supportive of numerous species of terrestrial and aquatic fauna and flora. Crude oil spills endanger fish hatcheries in coastal water and also contaminate valuable fish. This study examines the effects of oil spills on fish production in the Niger Delta of Nigeria from 1981–2015 using an estimable Cobb Douglas production function. The findings suggest that oil production and spills negatively affect fish production, while farm labour has a positive effect on fish production. On the other hand, fishery loan exerts a negative effect on fish production and this could be ascribed to the bottlenecks in accessing these loans. This study corroborates the findings in literature on the negative concomitance of oil spills and fish production and suggests a cautious approach to oil exploration activities for a sustainable development in the region.

An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline

There is significant risk associated with increased oil and gas exploration activities in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of accidental oil spills in this region. A fugacity approach is adopted to model the fate and transport of released oil, taking into account the uncertainty of input variables. This assists in predicting the 95th percentile Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC_95%) of pollutants in different media. The 5th percentile Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC_5%) is obtained from toxicity data for 19 species. A model based on Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is developed to assess the ecological risk posed to the aquatic community. The model enables accounting for the occurrence likelihood of input parameters, as well as analyzing the time-variable risk profile caused by seasonal changes. It is observed through the results that previous probabilistic methods developed for ERA can be overestimating the risk level.

Current practices and knowledge supporting oil spill risk assessment in the Arctic

Oil spill response (OSR) in the Arctic marine environment conducted as part of operational planning and preparedness supporting exploration and development is most successful when knowledge of the ecosystem is readily available and applicable in an oil spill risk assessment framework. OSR strategies supporting decision-making during the critical period after a spill event should be explicit about the environmental resources potentially at risk and the efficacy of OSR countermeasures that best protect sensitive and valued resources. At present, there are 6 prominent methods for spill impact mitigation assessment (SIMA) in the Arctic aimed at supporting OSR and operational planning and preparedness; each method examines spill scenarios and identifies response strategies best suited to overcome the unique challenges posed by polar ecosystems and to minimize potential long-term environmental consequences. The different methods are grounded in classical environmental risk assessment and the net environmental benefit analysis (NEBA) approach that emerged in the 1990s after the Exxon Valdez oil spill. The different approaches share 5 primary assessment elements (oil physical and chemical properties, fate and transport, exposure, effects and consequence analysis). This paper highlights how the different Arctic methods reflect this common risk assessment framework and share a common need for oil spill science relevant to Arctic ecosystems. An online literature navigation portal, developed as part of the 5-year Arctic Oil Spill Response Technologies Joint Industry Programme, complements the different approaches currently used in the Arctic by capturing the rapidly expanding body of scientific knowledge useful to evaluating exposure, vulnerability and recovery of the Arctic ecosystem after an oil spill.

Estimating the acute impacts of Arctic marine oil spills using expert elicitation

Increasing maritime traffic in the Arctic has heightened the oil spill-related risks in this highly sensitive environment. To quantitatively assess these risks, we need knowledge about both the vulnerability and sensitivity of the key Arctic functional groups that may be affected by spilled oil. However, in the Arctic these data are typically scarce or lacking altogether. To compensate for this limited data availability, we propose the use of a probabilistic expert elicitation methodology, which we apply to seals, anatids, and seabirds. Our results suggest that the impacts of oil vary between functional groups, seasons, and oil types. Overall, the impacts are least for seals and greatest for anatids. Offspring seem to be more sensitive than adults, the impact is greatest in spring, and medium and heavy oils are the most harmful oil types. The elicitation process worked well, yet finding enough skilled and motivated experts proved to be difficult.

Relative sensitivity of Arctic species to physically and chemically dispersed oil determined from three hydrocarbon measures of aquatic toxicity

The risks to Arctic species from oil releases is a global concern, but their sensitivity to chemically dispersed oil has not been assessed using a curated and standardized dataset from spiked declining tests. Species sensitivity to dispersed oil was determined by their position within species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) using three measures of hydrocarbon toxicity: total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs), and naphthalenes. Comparisons of SSDs with Arctic/sub-Arctic versus non-Arctic species, and across SSDs of compositionally similar oils, showed that Arctic and non-Arctic species have comparable sensitivities even with the variability introduced by combining data across studies and oils. Regardless of hydrocarbon measure, hazard concentrations across SSDs were protective of sensitive Arctic species. While the sensitivities of Arctic species to oil exposures resemble those of commonly tested species, PAH-based toxicity data are needed for a greater species diversity including sensitive Arctic species.