Reconstructing the origin and transmission dynamics of the 1967-68 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

MolEpidPred: a novel computational tool for the molecular epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease virus using VP1 nucleotide sequence data

Molecular epidemiology of Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is crucial to implement its control strategies including vaccination and containment, which primarily deals with knowing serotype, topotype, and lineage of the virus. The existing approaches including serotyping are biological in nature, which are time-consuming and risky due to live virus handling. Thus, novel computational tools are highly required for large-scale molecular epidemiology of the FMD virus. This study reported a comprehensive computational tool for FMD molecular epidemiology. Ten learning algorithms were initially evaluated on cross-validated and ten independent secondary datasets for serotype prediction using sequence-based features through accuracy, sensitivity and 14 other metrics. Next, best performing algorithms, with higher serotype predictive accuracies, were evaluated for topotype and lineage prediction using cross-validation. These algorithms are implemented in the computational tool. Then, performance of the developed approach was assessed on five independent secondary datasets, never seen before, and primary experimental data. Our cross-validated and independent evaluation of learning algorithms for serotype prediction revealed that support vector machine, random forest, XGBoost, and AdaBoost algorithms outperformed others. Then, these four algorithms were evaluated for topotype and lineage prediction, which achieved accuracy ≥96% and precision ≥95% on cross-validated data. These algorithms are implemented in the web-server (https://nifmd-bbf.icar.gov.in/MolEpidPred), which allows rapid molecular epidemiology of FMD virus. The independent validation of the MolEpidPred observed accuracies ≥98%, ≥90%, and ≥ 80% for serotype, topotype, and lineage prediction, respectively. On wet-lab data, the MolEpidPred tool provided results in fewer seconds and achieved accuracies of 100%, 100%, and 96% for serotype, topotype, and lineage prediction, respectively, when benchmarked with phylogenetic analysis. MolEpidPred tool provides an innovative platform for large-scale molecular epidemiology of FMD virus, which is crucial for tracking FMD virus infection and implementing control program.

The dual role of a highly structured RNA (the S fragment) in the replication of foot-and-mouth disease virus

Secondary and tertiary RNA structures play key roles in genome replication of single-stranded positive sense RNA viruses. Complex, functional structures are particularly abundant in the untranslated regions of picornaviruses, where they are involved in initiation of translation, priming of new strand synthesis and genome circularization. The 5' UTR of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is predicted to include a c. 360 nucleotide-long stem-loop, termed the short (S) fragment. This structure is highly conserved and essential for viral replication, but the precise function(s) are unclear. Here, we used selective 2' hydroxyl acetylation analyzed by primer extension (SHAPE) to experimentally determine aspects of the structure, alongside comparative genomic analyses to confirm structure conservation from a wide range of field isolates. To examine its role in virus replication in cell culture, we introduced a series of deletions to the distal and proximal regions of the stem-loop. These truncations affected genome replication in a size-dependent and, in some cases, host cell-dependent manner. Furthermore, during the passage of viruses incorporating the largest tolerated deletion from the proximal region of the S fragment stem-loop, an additional mutation was selected in the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, 3Dpol. These data suggest that the S fragment and 3Dpol interact in the formation of the FMDV replication complex.

Sequence Analysis of Egyptian Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Field and Vaccine Strains: Intertypic Recombination and Evidence for Accidental Release of Virulent Virus

In spite of annual mass vaccination programs with polyvalent inactivated vaccines, the incidence and economic impact of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Egypt is high. Viruses of the A, O and SAT 2 serotypes are endemic and repeated incursions of new lineages from other countries lead to an unstable situation that makes the selection of appropriate vaccine antigens very difficult. In this study, whole genome sequencing of a 2016 serotype A isolate from Egypt revealed a recombination event with an African serotype O virus. Based on available vaccine matching data, none of the vaccines currently used in Egypt are expected to sufficiently protect against this virus or other viruses of this lineage (A/AFRICA/G-IV) circulating there since 2012. In addition to the risk of vaccine failure caused by strain mismatch, the production of inactivated FMD vaccines is dangerous if adequate biosafety cannot be maintained. Using a high-throughput sequencing protocol optimized for short nucleic acid fragments, the composition of a local inactivated vaccine was analyzed in depth. The serotype O strain identified in the vaccine was genetically identical to viruses found in recent FMD outbreaks in Egypt.

Pervasive within-host recombination and epistasis as major determinants of the molecular evolution of the foot-and-mouth disease virus capsid

Although recombination is known to occur in foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), it is considered only a minor determinant of virus sequence diversity. Analysis at phylogenetic scales shows inter-serotypic recombination events are rare, whereby recombination occurs almost exclusively in non-structural proteins. In this study we have estimated recombination rates within a natural host in an experimental setting. African buffaloes were inoculated with a SAT-1 FMDV strain containing two major viral sub-populations differing in their capsid sequence. This population structure enabled the detection of extensive within-host recombination in the genomic region coding for structural proteins and allowed recombination rates between the two sub-populations to be estimated. Quite surprisingly, the effective recombination rate in VP1 during the acute infection phase turns out to be about 0.1 per base per year, i.e. comparable to the mutation/substitution rate. Using a high-resolution map of effective within-host recombination in the capsid-coding region, we identified a linkage disequilibrium pattern in VP1 that is consistent with a mosaic structure with two main genetic blocks. Positive epistatic interactions between co-evolved variants appear to be present both within and between blocks. These interactions are due to intra-host selection both at the RNA and protein level. Overall our findings show that during FMDV co-infections by closely related strains, capsid-coding genes recombine within the host at a much higher rate than expected, despite the presence of strong constraints dictated by the capsid structure. Although these intra-host results are not immediately translatable to a phylogenetic setting, recombination and epistasis must play a major and so far underappreciated role in the molecular evolution of the virus at all scales.

There are 7 serotypes of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus and multiple strains of each serotype. The emergence of new strains can result in widespread outbreaks of disease and requires new vaccines to be developed. The major mechanisms driving variation are thought to be substitutions in the viral genome. Recombination in the capsid-coding region of the virus genome has been described at phylogenetic scales but not thought to play a major role in generating variants. In the current experiment, a co-infection of African buffaloes with closely related sub-populations of viruses allowed us to detect recombination events. For structural protein-coding sequences, the genetic composition of the population is driven by extensive within-host recombination. During the acute infection phase the intra-host recombination rates of 0.1 per base per year are comparable to the typical mutation rates of the virus. The recombination map reveals two strongly linked regions within the VP1 protein-coding sequence. Epistatic interactions between co-evolved mutations in VP1 are caused by intra-host selection at the RNA and protein level and are present both within and between the two regions. Our findings in this experimental setting support a major role for recombination and epistasis in the intra-host evolution of FMDV.

Probe capture enrichment next-generation sequencing of complete foot-and-mouth disease virus genomes in clinical samples

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) techniques offer an unprecedented "step-change" increase in the quantity and quality of sequence data rapidly generated from a sample and can be applied to obtain ultra-deep coverage of viral genomes. This is not possible with the routinely used Sanger sequencing method that gives the consensus reads, or by cloning approaches. In this study, a targeted-enrichment methodology for the simultaneous acquisition of complete foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) genomes directly from clinical samples is presented. Biotinylated oligonucleotide probes (120 nt) were used to capture and enrich viral RNA following library preparation. To create a virus capture panel targeting serotype O and A simultaneously, 18 baits targeting the highly conserved regions of the 8.3 kb FMDV genome were synthesised, with 14 common to both serotypes, 2 specific to serotype O and 2 specific to serotype A. These baits were used to capture and enrich FMDV RNA (as cDNA) from samples collected during one pathogenesis and two vaccine efficacy trials, where pigs were infected with serotype O or A viruses. After enrichment, FMDV-specific sequencing reads increased by almost 3000-fold. The sequence data were used in variant call analysis to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). This methodology was robust in its ability to capture diverse sequences, was shown to be highly sensitive, and can be easily scaled for large-scale epidemiological studies.

Transboundary spread of pig diseases: the role of international trade and travel

As globalization increases the interconnectedness between nations, economies, and industries, the introduction of diseases will continue to remain a prominent threat to the livestock sector and the trade of animals and animal products, as well as the livelihoods of farmers, food security and public health. The global pig sector, with its size and dichotomy between production type and biosecurity level, is particularly vulnerable to the transmission of transboundary animal diseases such as African and classical swine fever, foot and mouth disease, or porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome. All of the above pose a constant threat to swine health, mainly as a result of both formal and informal international trade.Inspired in the risk assessment methodology, this paper classifies and provides an overview of the different pig disease introduction and exposure pathways, illustrated with abundant examples. Introduction pathways are classified as formal international trade (by product), informal international trade (by product), and spread through fomites. Formal trade of pigs and pork products is regulated by legislation and measures protecting animal populations from exotic diseases. Much more difficult to control is the transboundary swine disease transmission originating through informal trade, which entails illegal smuggling, but also the informal cross-border transfer of animals and products for personal use or within informal market chains. Meat products are most commonly mentioned, although fomites have also played a role in some cases, with live pigs, being more difficult to smuggle playing a role less frequently. The main exposure pathways are also described with the oral route playing a prominent role.Risk assessments can aid in the identification of pathways of pathogen introduction and exposure. However, quantitative information on informal disease introduction pathways remains very scarce and often incomplete, making it difficult to estimate the actual magnitudes of risks. Nevertheless, this knowledge is deemed essential to set up risk based awareness, prevention and surveillance programs that correspond to reality.

Reconstructing the evolutionary history of pandemic foot-and-mouth disease viruses: the impact of recombination within the emerging O/ME-SA/Ind-2001 lineage

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of livestock affecting animal production and trade throughout Asia and Africa. Understanding FMD virus (FMDV) global movements and evolution can help to reconstruct the disease spread between endemic regions and predict the risks of incursion into FMD-free countries. Global expansion of a single FMDV lineage is rare but can result in severe economic consequences. Using extensive sequence data we have reconstructed the global space-time transmission history of the O/ME-SA/Ind-2001 lineage (which normally circulates in the Indian sub-continent) providing evidence of at least 15 independent escapes during 2013–2017 that have led to outbreaks in North Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, the Far East and the FMD-free islands of Mauritius. We demonstrated that sequence heterogeneity of this emerging FMDV lineage is accommodated within two co-evolving divergent sublineages and that recombination by exchange of capsid-coding sequences can impact upon the reconstructed evolutionary histories. Thus, we recommend that only sequences encoding the outer capsid proteins should be used for broad-scale phylogeographical reconstruction. These data emphasise the importance of the Indian subcontinent as a source of FMDV that can spread across large distances and illustrates the impact of FMDV genome recombination on FMDV molecular epidemiology.

A traditional evolutionary history of foot-and-mouth disease viruses in Southeast Asia challenged by analyses of non-structural protein coding sequences

Recombination of rapidly evolving RNA-viruses provides an important mechanism for diversification, spread, and emergence of new variants with enhanced fitness. Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) causes an important transboundary disease of livestock that is endemic to most countries in Asia and Africa. Maintenance and spread of FMDV are driven by periods of dominance of specific viral lineages. Current understanding of the molecular epidemiology of FMDV lineages is generally based on the phylogenetic relationship of the capsid-encoding genes, with less attention to the process of recombination and evolution of non-structural proteins. In this study, the putative recombination breakpoints of FMDVs endemic to Southeast Asia were determined using full-open reading frame sequences. Subsequently, the lineages’ divergence times of recombination-free genome regions were estimated. These analyses revealed a close relationship between two of the earliest endemic viral lineages that appear unrelated when only considering the phylogeny of their capsid proteins. Contrastingly, one lineage, named O/CATHAY, known for having a particular host predilection (pigs) has evolved independently. Additionally, intra-lineage recombination occurred at different breakpoints compared to the inter-lineage process. These results provide new insights about FMDV recombination patterns and the evolutionary interdependence of FMDV serotypes and lineages.

Understanding the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus at different scales

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly infectious, but despite the large quantities of FMD virus released into the environment and the extreme susceptibility of host species to infection, transmission is not always predictable. Whereas virus spread in endemic settings is characterised by frequent direct and indirect animal contacts, incursions into FMD-free countries may be seeded by low-probability events such as fomite or wind-borne aerosol routes. There remains a void between data generated from small-scale experimental studies and our ability to reliably reconstruct transmission routes at different scales between farms, countries and regions. This review outlines recent transmission studies in susceptible host species, and considers new approaches that integrate virus genomics and epidemiological data to recreate and understand the spread of FMD.

Investigating intra-host and intra-herd sequence diversity of foot-and-mouth disease virus

Due to the poor-fidelity of the enzymes involved in RNA genome replication, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus samples comprise of unique polymorphic populations. In this study, deep sequencing was utilised to characterise the diversity of FMD virus (FMDV) populations in 6 infected cattle present on a single farm during the series of outbreaks in the UK in 2007. A novel RT-PCR method was developed to amplify a 7.6kb nucleotide fragment encompassing the polyprotein coding region of the FMDV genome. Illumina sequencing of each sample identified the fine polymorphic structures at each nucleotide position, from consensus level changes to variants present at a 0.24% frequency. These data were used to investigate population dynamics of FMDV at both herd and host levels, evaluate the impact of host on the viral swarm structure and to identify transmission links with viruses recovered from other farms in the same series of outbreaks. In 7 samples, from 6 different animals, a total of 5 consensus level variants were identified, in addition to 104 sub-consensus variants of which 22 were shared between 2 or more animals. Further analysis revealed differences in swarm structures from samples derived from the same animal suggesting the presence of distinct viral populations evolving independently at different lesion sites within the same infected animal.

Phylodynamic reconstruction of O CATHAY topotype foot-and-mouth disease virus epidemics in the Philippines

Reconstructing the evolutionary history, demographic signal and dispersal processes from viral genome sequences contributes to our understanding of the epidemiological dynamics underlying epizootic events. In this study, a Bayesian phylogenetic framework was used to explore the phylodynamics and spatio-temporal dispersion of the O CATHAY topotype of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) that caused epidemics in the Philippines between 1994 and 2005. Sequences of the FMDV genome encoding the VP1 showed that the O CATHAY FMD epizootic in the Philippines resulted from a single introduction and was characterised by three main transmission hubs in Rizal, Bulacan and Manila Provinces. From a wider regional perspective, phylogenetic reconstruction of all available O CATHAY VP1 nucleotide sequences identified three distinct sub-lineages associated with country-based clusters originating in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), the Philippines and Taiwan. The root of this phylogenetic tree was located in Hong Kong SAR, representing the most likely source for the introduction of this lineage into the Philippines and Taiwan. The reconstructed O CATHAY phylodynamics revealed three chronologically distinct evolutionary phases, culminating in a reduction in viral diversity over the final 10 years. The analysis suggests that viruses from the O CATHAY topotype have been continually maintained within swine industries close to Hong Kong SAR, following the extinction of virus lineages from the Philippines and the reduced number of FMD cases in Taiwan.

Supersize me: how whole-genome sequencing and big data are transforming epidemiology

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Whole-genome sequencing is used for forensic epidemiology.

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Big data can transform forensic epidemiology.

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Clustering, biases, wildlife reservoirs, and emerging infections can all be addressed.

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Phylodynamics approaches to integrate epidemiological and evolutionary data have been highly successful but still face scientific challenges.

In epidemiology, the identification of ‘who infected whom’ allows us to quantify key characteristics such as incubation periods, heterogeneity in transmission rates, duration of infectiousness, and the existence of high-risk groups. Although invaluable, the existence of many plausible infection pathways makes this difficult, and epidemiological contact tracing either uncertain, logistically prohibitive, or both. The recent advent of next-generation sequencing technology allows the identification of traceable differences in the pathogen genome that are transforming our ability to understand high-resolution disease transmission, sometimes even down to the host-to-host scale. We review recent examples of the use of pathogen whole-genome sequencing for the purpose of forensic tracing of transmission pathways, focusing on the particular problems where evolutionary dynamics must be supplemented by epidemiological information on the most likely timing of events as well as possible transmission pathways. We also discuss potential pitfalls in the over-interpretation of these data, and highlight the manner in which a confluence of this technology with sophisticated mathematical and statistical approaches has the potential to produce a paradigm shift in our understanding of infectious disease transmission and control.

Challenges for Serology-Based Characterization of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Endemic Areas; Identification of Two Separate Lineages of Serotype O FMDV in Uganda in 2011

Control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Uganda by ring vaccination largely depends on costly trivalent vaccines, and use of monovalent vaccines could improve the cost effectiveness. This, however, requires application of highly specific diagnostic tests. This study investigated outbreaks of FMD in seven Ugandan districts, during 2011, using the PrioCHECK® FMDV NS ELISA, solid-phase blocking ELISAs (SPBEs) and virus neutralization tests (VNTs), together with virological analyses for characterization of the responsible viruses. Two hundred and eighteen (218) cattle and 23 goat sera as well as 82 oropharyngeal fluid/epithelial tissue samples were collected. Some 50% of the cattle and 17% of the goat sera were positive by the PrioCHECK® FMDV NS ELISA, while SPBEs identified titres ≥80 for antibodies against serotype O FMD virus (FMDV) in 51% of the anti-NSP positive cattle sera. However, 35% of the anti-NSP positive cattle sera had SPBE titres ≥80 against multiple serotypes, primarily against serotypes O, SAT 1 and SAT 3. Comparison of SPBEs and VNTs for the detection of antibodies against serotypes O, SAT 1 and SAT 3 in 72 NSP positive cattle sera showed comparable results against serotype O (P = 0.181), while VNTs detected significantly fewer samples positive for antibodies against SAT 1 and SAT 3 than the SPBEs (P < 0.001). Detection of antibodies against serotype O was consistent with the isolation of serotype O FMDVs from 13 samples. Four of these viruses were sequenced and belonged to two distinct lineages within the East Africa-2 (EA-2) topotype, each differing from the currently used vaccine strain (EA-1 topotype). The relationships of these lineages to other serotype O viruses in the Eastern Africa region are discussed. To enhance the control of FMD in Uganda, there is need to improve the specificity of the SAT-SPBEs, perform vaccine matching and implement improved regional FMD control.