A comparison of risk factor investigation and experts' opinion elicitation analysis for identifying foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) high-risk areas within the FMD protection zone of South Africa (2007-2016)

Foot-and-mouth disease is a controlled disease in accordance with the South African Animal Diseases Act (Act 35 of 1984). The country was classified by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) as having a FMD free zone without vaccination in 1996. However, this status was suspended in 2019 due to a FMD outbreak outside the controlled zones. FMD control in South Africa includes animal movement restrictions placed on cloven-hoofed species and products, prophylactic vaccination of cattle, clinical surveillance of susceptible species, and disease control fencing to separate livestock from wildlife reservoirs. The objectives of this study were to evaluate differences in identifying high-risk areas for FMD using risk factor and expert opinion elicitation analysis. Differences in risk between FMD introduction and FMD spread within the FMD protection zone with vaccination (PZV) of South Africa (2007-2016) were also investigated. The study was conducted in the communal farming area of the FMD PZV, which is adjacent to wildlife reserves and characterised by individual faming units. Eleven risk factors that were considered important for FMD occurrence and spread were used to build a weighted linear combination (WLC) score based on risk factor data and expert opinion elicitation. A multivariable conditional logistic regression model was also used to calculate predicted probabilities of a FMD outbreak for all dip-tanks within the study area. Smoothed Bayesian kriged maps were generated for 11 individual risk factors, overall WLC scores for FMD occurrence and spread and for predicted probabilities of a FMD outbreak based on the conditional logistic regression model. Descriptively, vaccine matching was believed to have a great influence on both FMD occurrence and spread. Expert opinion suggested that FMD occurrence was influenced predominantly by proximity to game reserves and cattle density. Cattle populations and vaccination practices were considered most important for FMD spread. Highly effective cattle inspections were observed within areas that previously reported FMD outbreaks, indicating the importance of cattle inspection (surveillance) as a necessary element of FMD outbreak detection. The multivariable conditional logistic regression analysis, which was consistent with expert opinion elicitation; identified three factors including cattle population density (OR 3.87, 95% CI 1.47-10.21) and proximities to game reserve fences (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.73-0.92) and rivers (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.07) as significant factors for reported FMD outbreaks. Regaining and maintaining an FMD-free status without vaccination requires frequent monitoring of high-risk areas and designing targeted surveillance.

Seroprevalence and molecular detection of foot and mouth disease virus in cattle in selected districts of Wolaita Zone, Southern Ethiopia

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious, endemic, and acute viral cattle ailment that causes major economic damage in Ethiopia. Although several serotypes of the FMD virus have been detected in Ethiopia, there is no documented information about the disease's current serostatus and serotypes circulating in the Wolaita zone. Thus, from March to December 2022, a cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate FMDV seroprevalence, molecular detection, and serotype identification in three Wolaita Zone sites. A multistage sample procedure was used to choose three peasant associations from each study region, namely Wolaita Sodo, Offa district, and Boloso sore district. A systematic random sampling technique was employed to pick 384 cattle from the population for the seroprevalence research, and 10 epithelial tissue samples were purposefully taken from outbreak individuals for molecular detection of FMDV. The sera were examined using 3ABC FMD NSP Competition ELISA to find antibodies against FMDV non-structural proteins, whereas epithelial tissue samples were analyzed for molecular detection using real-time RT-PCR, and sandwich ELISA was used to determine the circulating serotypes. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to evaluate the associated risk variables. The total seroprevalence of FMD in cattle was 46.88% (95% CI 41.86-51.88), with Wolaita Sodo Town having the highest seroprevalence (63.28%). As a consequence, multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that animal age, herd size, and interaction with wildlife were all substantially related to FMD seroprevalence (p < 0.05). During molecular detection, only SAT-2 serotypes were found in 10 tissue samples. Thus, investigating FMD outbreaks and identifying serotypes and risk factors for seropositivity are critical steps in developing effective control and prevention strategies based on the kind of circulating serotype. Moreover, further research for animal species other than cattle was encouraged.

Surveillance for lumpy skin disease and foot and mouth disease in the Kimberley, Western Australia

We quantified the sensitivity of surveillance for lumpy skin disease (LSD) and foot and mouth disease (FMD) in cattle in the Kimberley region of Western Australia. We monitored producer and veterinary activity with cattle for 3 years commencing January 2020. Each year, ~274,000 cattle of 685,540 present on 92 pastoral leases (stations) were consigned to other stations, live export or slaughter. Veterinarians examined 103,000 cattle on the stations, 177,000 prior to live export, and 10,000 prior to slaughter. Detection probabilities for the disease prior to transport or during veterinary procedures and inspections were elicited by survey of 17 veterinarians working in Northern Australia. The veterinarians estimated the probabilities that they would notice, recognise, and submit samples from clinical cases of LSD and FMD, given a 5% prevalence of clinical signs in the herd. We used scenario tree methodology to estimate monthly surveillance sensitivity of observations made by producers and by veterinarians during herd management visits, pre-export inspections, and ante-mortem inspections. Average monthly combined sensitivities were 0.49 for FMD and 0.37 for LSD. Sensitivity was high for both diseases during the dry season and low in the wet season. We estimated the confidence in freedom from the estimated surveillance sensitivity given one hypothetically infected herd, estimated probability of introduction, and prior confidence in freedom. This study provided assurance that the Kimberley is free of these diseases and that routine producer and veterinary interactions with cattle are adequate for the timely detection of the disease should they be introduced.

Spatiotemporal analysis of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in cattle and small ruminants in Türkiye between 2010 and 2019

Determining the dynamics associated with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks is important for being able to develop effective strategic plans against the disease. In this direction, spatiotemporal analysis of FMD virus (FMDV) epidemic data that occurred in Türkiye between 2010 and 2019 was carried out. Spatiotemporal analysis was performed by the space-time scan statistic using data from a total of 7,796 FMD outbreaks. Standard deviational ellipse analysis (SDE) was performed to analyse the directional trend of FMD. Five, six, and three significant and high-risk clusters were identified by the space-time cluster analysis for serotypes A, O, and Asia-1, respectively. The SDE analysis indicated that direction of FMD transmission was northeast to southwest. A significant decrease in the number of outbreaks and cases were observed between 2014 and 2019 compared to 2010-2013 (p = 0.010). Most of the serotype A, serotype O, and serotype Asia-1 associated FMD outbreaks were observed during the dry season (April to September). Among FMD cases, cattle and small ruminants accounted for 80.75% (180,932 cases) and 19.25% (43,116 cases), respectively. Among the serotypes detected in the cases, the most frequently detected serotype was serotype O (50.84%), followed by serotypes A (35.67%) and Asia-1 (13.49%). The results obtained in this study may contribute to when and where control programs could be implemented more efficiently for the prevention and control of FMD. Developing risk-defined regional control plans by taking into account the current livestock production including uncontrolled animal movements in border regions, rural livestock, livestock trade between provinces are recommended.

Optimization of a foot-and-mouth disease virus Southern African Territories-specific solid-phase competitive ELISA for small ruminant serum samples

We optimized and verified a single-spot solid-phase competitive ELISA (ss-SPCE) to detect antibodies against structural proteins of Southern African Territories (SAT) serotypes of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in small ruminants. Sera from goats vaccinated and experimentally challenged with a SAT1 FMDV pool were tested in duplicate at 4 dilutions (1:10, 1:15, 1:22.5, 1:33.8) to optimize the assay. To assess the performance of the assay in naturally infected animals, we evaluated 316 goat and sheep field sera collected during active SAT2 outbreaks. Relative to results of the virus neutralization test, the optimal serum dilution and cutoff percentage inhibition (PI) were 1:15 and 50%, respectively. At these values, the Spearman rank correlation coefficient was 0.85 (p < 0.001), and the sensitivity and specificity (95% CI) were 80.3% (72.6, 87.2) and 91.1% (84.1, 95.9), respectively. Relative to the liquid-phase blocking ELISA and the nonstructural protein ELISA, the ss-SPCE exhibited divergent performance characteristics between the goat and sheep field sera. Repeatability was better for goats, but the correlation and agreement among all 3 assays were better for the sheep sera. The prevalence of SAT2 FMDV infection in the sampled sheep was 23.6%; sampled goats were seemingly FMDV-free. The ss-SPCE is an appropriate FMDV detection tool to investigate the role of small ruminants in the epidemiology of FMD in Africa.

Inferring transmission routes for foot-and-mouth disease virus within a cattle herd using approximate Bayesian computation

To control an outbreak of an infectious disease it is essential to understand the different routes of transmission and how they contribute to the overall spread of the pathogen. With this information, policy makers can choose the most efficient methods of detection and control during an outbreak. Here we assess the contributions of direct contact and environmental contamination to the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in a cattle herd using an individual-based model that includes both routes. Model parameters are inferred using approximate Bayesian computation with sequential Monte Carlo sampling (ABC-SMC) applied to data from transmission experiments and the 2007 epidemic in Great Britain. This demonstrates that the parameters derived from transmission experiments are applicable to outbreaks in the field, at least for closely related strains. Under the assumptions made in the model we show that environmental transmission likely contributes a majority of infections within a herd during an outbreak, although there is a lot of variation between simulated outbreaks. The accumulation of environmental contamination not only causes infections within a farm, but also has the potential to spread between farms via fomites. We also demonstrate the importance and effectiveness of rapid detection of infected farms in reducing transmission between farms, whether via direct contact or the environment.

Spatio-temporal analysis and risk modeling of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in China

FMD is an acute contagious disease that poses a significant threat to the health and safety of cloven-hoofed animals in Asia, Europe, and Africa. The impact of FMD exhibits geographical disparities within different regions of China. The present investigation undertook an exhaustive analysis of documented occurrences of bovine FMD in China, spanning the temporal range from 2011 to 2020. The overarching objective was to elucidate the temporal and spatial dynamics underpinning these outbreaks. Acknowledging the pivotal role of global factors in FMD outbreaks, advanced machine learning techniques were harnessed to formulate an optimal prediction model by integrating comprehensive meteorological data pertinent to global FMD. Random Forest algorithm was employed with top three contributing factors including Isothermality(bio3), Annual average temperature(bio1) and Minimum temperature in the coldest month(bio6), all relevant to temperature. By encompassing both local and global factors, our study provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and predicting FMD outbreaks. Furthermore, we conducted a phylogenetic analysis to trace the origin of Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), pinpointing India as the country posing the greatest potential hazard by leveraging the spatio-temporal attributes of the collected data. Based on this finding, a quantitative risk model was developed for the legal importation of live cattle from India to China. The model estimated an average probability of 0.002254% for FMDV-infected cattle imported from India to China. TA sensitivity analysis identified two critical nodes within the model: he possibility of false negative clinical examination in infected cattle at destination (P5) and he possibility of false negative clinical examination in infected cattle at source(P3). This comprehensive approach offers a thorough evaluation of FMD landscape within China, considering both domestic and global perspectives, thereby augmenting the efficacy of early warning mechanisms.

Modeling target-density-based cull strategies to contain foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks

Total ring depopulation is sometimes used as a management strategy for emerging infectious diseases in livestock, which raises ethical concerns regarding the potential slaughter of large numbers of healthy animals. We evaluated a farm-density-based ring culling strategy to control foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the United Kingdom (UK), which may allow for some farms within rings around infected premises (IPs) to escape depopulation. We simulated this reduced farm density, or "target density", strategy using a spatially-explicit, stochastic, state-transition algorithm. We modeled FMD spread in four counties in the UK that have different farm demographics, using 740,000 simulations in a full-factorial analysis of epidemic impact measures (i.e., culled animals, culled farms, and epidemic length) and cull strategy parameters (i.e., target farm density, daily farm cull capacity, and cull radius). All of the cull strategy parameters listed above were drivers of epidemic impact. Our simulated target density strategy was usually more effective at combatting FMD compared with traditional total ring depopulation when considering mean culled animals and culled farms and was especially effective when daily farm cull capacity was low. The differences in epidemic impact measures among the counties are likely driven by farm demography, especially differences in cattle and farm density. To prevent over-culling and the associated economic, organizational, ethical, and psychological impacts, the target density strategy may be worth considering in decision-making processes for future control of FMD and other diseases.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus strains isolated in Vietnam during 2010-2019: genetic characterization and antigenic relatedness to the Euro SA vaccine

Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly contagious disease that affects cloven-hoofed animals. It has an important socio-economic impact on the livestock industry because it produces a drastic decrease of productivity. The disease has been successfully eradicated from some regions, including North America and Western Europe, but it is still endemic in developing countries. Agriculture plays an important role in the national economy of Vietnam, to which animal production contributes a great proportion. The concurrent circulation of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) serotypes O, A, and Asia 1 has been detected in recent years, but serotype O remains the most prevalent and is responsible for the highest numbers of outbreaks. Appropriate vaccine strain selection is an important element in the control of FMD and is necessary for the application of vaccination programs in FMD-affected regions. Here, we present updated information about the genetic and antigenic characteristics of circulating strains, collected from endemic outbreaks involving types O and A, between 2010 and 2019. Neutralizing assays showed a good in vitro match between type O strains and the monovalent O1 Campos vaccine strain. High r1 values were obtained (above 0.7) when testing a swine serum pool collected 21 days after vaccination, but the O/VTN/2/2019 strain was an exception. An EPP estimation resulted in a median neutralizing titre of about 1.65 log10, indicating that good protection could be achieved. For type A Asia SEA 97 lineage strains, acceptable individual neutralizing titres were obtained with estimated EPP values over 80% for different combinations of vaccine strains. Taking into account that the r1 value is one tool of a battery of tests that should be considered for estimating the cross-protection of a field strain against a vaccine strain, an in vivo challenge experiment was also performed, yielding a PD50 value of 8.0. The results indicate that South American strains could be potentially used for controlling outbreaks involving these lineages. This study demonstrates the importance of considering strain characteristics when choosing vaccine strains and controls.

Detection of foot-and-mouth disease viruses from the A/AFRICA/G-I genotype in the Sultanate of Oman

Rapid identification and characterization of circulating foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) strains is crucial for effective disease control. In Oman, a few serological and molecular studies have been conducted to identify the strains of FMDV responsible for the outbreaks that have been occurring within the country. In this study, 13 oral epithelial tissue samples from cattle were collected from suspected cases of FMD in Ash Sharqiyah North, Al Batinah North, Dhofar and Ad Dhakhyilia governorates of Oman between 2018 and 2021. FMDV RNA was detected in all samples by real-time RT-PCR and viruses were isolated after one- or two-blind passages in the porcine Instituto Biologico-Rim Suino-2 cell line. Antigen capture ELISA characterized all isolates as serotype A and VP1 phylogenetic analysis placed all sequences within a single clade of the G-I genotype within the A/AFRICA topotype. These sequences shared the closest nucleotide identities to viruses circulating in Bahrain in 2021 (93.5% to 99.5%) and Kenya in 2017 (93.4% to 99.1%). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that A/AFRICA/G-I viruses have been detected in Oman. Together with the closely related viruses detected recently in Bahrain, these findings reinforce the importance of deploying effective quarantine control measures to minimize the risks of transboundary transmission of FMD associated with the importation of cattle from East Africa.

Quantifying the relationship between within-host dynamics and transmission for viral diseases of livestock

Understanding the population dynamics of an infectious disease requires linking within-host dynamics and between-host transmission in a quantitative manner, but this is seldom done in practice. Here a simple phenomenological model for viral dynamics within a host is linked to between-host transmission by assuming that the probability of transmission is related to log viral titre. Data from transmission experiments for two viral diseases of livestock, foot-and-mouth disease virus in cattle and swine influenza virus in pigs, are used to parametrize the model and, importantly, test the underlying assumptions. The model allows the relationship between within-host parameters and transmission to be determined explicitly through their influence on the reproduction number and generation time. Furthermore, these critical within-host parameters (time and level of peak titre, viral growth and clearance rates) can be computed from more complex within-host models, raising the possibility of assessing the impact of within-host processes on between-host transmission in a more detailed quantitative manner.

Foot and mouth disease viruses are recurrently introduced to Israel and spread by extensively reared sheep and cattle: Insights from a whole-genome sequence analysis

Despite routine vaccination, Israel experiences recurrent outbreaks of foot and mouth disease (FMD). We analyzed VP1 coding sequences of viruses isolated during FMD outbreaks from 2001 to 2011 in Israel and neighboring nations. The Israeli strains were aligned with strains from neighboring countries in corresponding years, implying repeated FMD virus incursions. In 2007 a large FMD epidemic, caused by a serotype O virus, occurred in Israel. Bayesian analysis of whole-genome sequences of viruses isolated during this epidemic revealed predominant transmission among extensively farmed beef-cattle and small ruminants. Small ruminants were key in spreading to beef-cattle, which then transmitted the virus to feedlot-cattle. Wild gazelles had a minor role in transmission. The results may suggest probable transmission of FMD virus from the Palestinian Authority to Israel. Targeting extensive farms via enhanced surveillance and vaccination could improve FMDV control. Given cross-border transmission, a collaborative FMD mitigation strategy across the Middle-East is crucial.

Exploring preventive factors against insufficient antibody positivity rate for foot-and-mouth disease in pig farms in South Korea: a preliminary ecological study

BACKGROUND

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease in livestock that has tremendous economic impact nationally. After multiple FMD outbreaks, the South Korean government implemented a vaccination policy for efficient disease control. However, during active surveillance by quarantine authorities, pig farms have reported an insufficient antibody positivity rate to FMD.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, the spatial and temporal trends of insufficiency among pig farms were analyzed, and the effect of the number of government veterinary officers was explored as a potential preventive factor.

METHODS

Various data were acquired, including national-level surveillance data for antibody insufficiency from the Korea Animal Health Integrated System, the number of veterinary officers, and the number of local pig farms. Temporal and geographical descriptive analyses were conducted to overview spatial and temporal trends. Additionally, logistic regression models were employed to investigate the association between the number of officers per pig farm with antibody insufficiency. Spatial cluster analysis was conducted to detect spatial clusters.

RESULTS

The results showed that the incidence of insufficiency tended to decrease in recent years (odds ratio [OR], 0.803; 95% confidence interval [95% CIs], 0.721-0.893), and regions with a higher density of governmental veterinary officers (OR, 0.942; 95% CIs, 0.918-0.965) were associated with a lower incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

This study implies that previously conducted national interventions would be effective, and the quality of government-provided veterinary care could play an important role in addressing the insufficient positivity rate of antibodies.

Estimation of foot-and-mouth disease virus sero-prevalence rates using novel computational approach for the susceptible bovine population in India during the period 2008-2021

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a severe contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. In India, a vaccination-based official FMD control programme was started, which got expanded progressively to cover entire country in 2019. The serological tests are used to determine non-structural protein based sero-prevalence rates for properly implementing and assessing the control programme. Since 2008, reporting of the FMD sero-surveillance was limited to the serum sample-based serological test results without going for population-level estimation due to lack of proper statistical methodology. Thus, we present a computational approach for estimating the sero-prevalence rates at the state and national levels. Based on the reported approach, a web-application ( https://nifmd-bbf.icar.gov.in/FMDSeroSurv ) and an R software package ( https://github.com/sam-dfmd/FMDSeroSurv ) have been developed. The presented computational techniques are applied to the FMD sero-surveillance data during 2008-2021 to get the status of virus circulation in India under a strict vaccination policy. Furthermore, through various structural equation models, we attempt to establish a link between India's estimated sero-prevalence rate and field FMD outbreaks. Our results indicate that the current sero-prevalence rates are significantly associated with previous field outbreaks up to 2 years. Besides, we observe downward trends in sero-prevalence and outbreaks over the years, specifically after 2013, which indicate the effectiveness of various measures implemented under the FMD control programme. The findings of the study may help researchers and policymakers to track virus infection and identification of potential disease-free zones through vaccination.

A review of foot-and-mouth disease in Ethiopia: epidemiological aspects, economic implications, and control strategies

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a contagious viral disease that affects the livelihoods and productivity of livestock farmers in endemic regions. It can infect various domestic and wild animals with cloven hooves and is caused by a virus belonging to the genus Aphthovirus and family Picornaviridae, which has seven different serotypes: A, O, C, SAT1, SAT2, SAT3, and Asia-1. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the molecular epidemiology, economic impact, diagnosis, and control measures of FMD in Ethiopia in comparison with the global situation. The genetic and antigenic diversity of FMD viruses requires a thorough understanding for developing and applying effective control strategies in endemic areas. FMD has direct and indirect economic consequences on animal production. In Ethiopia, FMD outbreaks have led to millions of USD losses due to the restriction or rejection of livestock products in the international market. Therefore, in endemic areas, disease control depends on vaccinations to prevent animals from developing clinical disease. However, in Ethiopia, due to the presence of diverse antigenic serotypes of FMD viruses, regular and extensive molecular investigation of new field isolates is necessary to perform vaccine-matching studies to evaluate the protective potential of the vaccine strain in the country.

Isolation, molecular characterization, and genetic diversity of recently isolated foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype A in Egypt

Foot-and-mouth Disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting all hoof-cloven animals. Serotypes A, O and SAT 2 of the foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) are circulating in Egypt. The present study aimed to identify and molecularly characterize the FMDV strains circulating in Northern Egypt during an epidemic that struck the nation in 2022. RNA was extracted from the epithelial specimens, vesicular fluid from affected cattle. The samples were screened using real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) targeting the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) gene. Positive samples underwent individual serotype-specific amplification using primers designed for VP1 of O, A, and SAT 2 serotypes. Subsequently, direct sequencing was performed on the positive samples. The real-time RT-PCR detected positive samples from epithelial and vesicular fluid samples, but not in the blood of infected animals. Out of the 16 samples, seven tested positive for FMDV serotype A. Of these seven positive samples, six were categorized as serotype A-African topotype-G-IV, and these positive samples were isolated in BHK-21 cells, yielding an overt cytopathic effect caused by the virus. In conclusion, it is necessary to sustain continuous surveillance of the evolution of circulating FMDV strains to facilitate the assessment and aid in the selection of vaccine strains for the effective control of FMDV in Egypt.

Modelling outbreak response impact in human vaccine-preventable diseases: A systematic review of differences in practices between collaboration types before COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Outbreak response modelling often involves collaboration among academics, and experts from governmental and non-governmental organizations. We conducted a systematic review of modelling studies on human vaccine-preventable disease (VPD) outbreaks to identify patterns in modelling practices between two collaboration types. We complemented this with a mini comparison of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a veterinary disease that is controllable by vaccination.

METHODS

We searched three databases for modelling studies that assessed the impact of an outbreak response. We extracted data on author affiliation type (academic institution, governmental, and non-governmental organizations), location studied, and whether at least one author was affiliated to the studied location. We also extracted the outcomes and interventions studied, and model characteristics. Included studies were grouped into two collaboration types: purely academic (papers with only academic affiliations), and mixed (all other combinations) to help investigate differences in modelling patterns between collaboration types in the human disease literature and overall differences with FMD collaboration practices.

RESULTS

Human VPDs formed 227 of 252 included studies. Purely academic collaborations dominated the human disease studies (56%). Notably, mixed collaborations increased in the last seven years (2013-2019). Most studies had an author affiliated to an institution in the country studied (75.2%) but this was more likely among the mixed collaborations. Contrasted to the human VPDs, mixed collaborations dominated the FMD literature (56%). Furthermore, FMD studies more often had an author with an affiliation to the country studied (92%) and used complex model design, including stochasticity, and model parametrization and validation.

CONCLUSION

The increase in mixed collaboration studies over the past seven years could suggest an increase in the uptake of modelling for outbreak response decision-making. We encourage more mixed collaborations between academic and non-academic institutions and the involvement of locally affiliated authors to help ensure that the studies suit local contexts.

A TaqMan-based RT-qPCR assay for serotyping of Southern African territories (SAT) 2 strains of Foot-and-Mouth disease virus (FMDV) in Southern Africa

OBJECTIVE

Determining the serotype of circulating virus strains is important in implementing effective vaccination. In this study, Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) Southern African territory 2 (SAT2) specific primers and TaqMan probe were designed towards rapid SAT2 detection and serotyping. The primers were tested by endpoint reverse transcription (RT) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) using the vaccine strain SAT2035. The SAT2 serotype-specific RT-qPCR assay was compared with currently used ELISA and VP1 sequencing using Cohen's kappa statistics.

RESULTS

The primers yielded amplicons of band size 190 bp during endpoint RT-PCR. When coupled with the probe, the primers reaction efficiency was determined to be 99% with an r2 value of 0.994. The results show that the SAT2 assay has comparable performance to VP1 sequencing (k = 1) and a moderate degree of agreement with ELISA (k = 0.571). The data shows that the newly designed assay could be considered for serotyping of SAT2 strains. However, for this assay to be complete there is a need to design effective SAT1 and SAT3 primers and probes that can be multiplexed to target other serotypes that co-circulate within relevant FMD endemic pools. For future implementation of the assay there is also a need to increase the number of field samples towards validation of the assay.

Laboratory testing and on-site storage are successful at mitigating the risk of release of foot-and-mouth disease virus via production of bull semen in the USA

Thousands of frozen bovine semen doses are produced daily in the US for domestic use. An incursion of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the country would pose strong challenges to the movements of animals and animal products between premises. Secure supply plans require an estimation of the risk associated with target commodities and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. This study presents the results of a quantitative assessment of the risk of release of FMD virus from five of the largest commercial bull studs in the US via contaminated frozen processed semen. The methodology from a previous study was adapted to better fit the US production system and includes more recent data. Two models were combined, a deterministic compartmental model of FMD transmission and a stochastic risk assessment model. The compartmental model simulated an FMD outbreak within a collection facility, following the introduction of a latent-infected bull. The risk of release was defined as the annual likelihood of releasing at least one frozen semen batch, defined as the total amount of semen collected from a single bull on a given collection day, containing viable FMD virus. A scenario tree was built using nine steps leading from the collection to the release of a contaminated batch from a given facility. The first step, the annual probability of an FMD outbreak in a given facility, was modeled using an empirical distribution fitted to incidence data predicted by five models published between 2012 and 2022. An extra step was added to the previously published risk pathway, to account for routine serological or virological surveillance within facilities. The results showed that the mitigation measures included in the assessment were effective at reducing the risk of release. The median annual risk of release from the five facilities was estimated at less than 2 in 10 billion (1.5 x 10-10) in the scenario including a 30-day storage, routine genome detection assays performed every two weeks and RT-PCR testing of the semen. In this scenario, there was a 95% chance that the risk of release would be lower than 0.00041. This work provides strong support to the industry for improving their response plans to an incursion of FMD virus in the US.

Evaluation of foot and mouth disease control measures: Simulating two endemic areas of Thailand

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is an important livestock disease in Thailand, with outbreaks occurring every year. However, the effects of FMD control measures in Thailand have received little research attention. Epidemiological models have been widely used to evaluate FMD outbreak control, but such a model has never been developed for Thailand. We constructed a stochastic between-farm transmission model to evaluate FMD control measures. The epidemiological unit of the model was the farm, which could be in different states: susceptible, latent, undetected infectious, detected infectious and recovered. The between-farm transmission was calculated by the sum of distance-dependent transmission and trade network transmission using parameters derived from FMD outbreaks in 2016-2017. We used this model to simulate the outbreaks with and without the implementation of the following control measures: culling all animals on infected farms, ring vaccination, animal movement restrictions and isolation of infected farms. The control measures were evaluated by estimating the number of secondarily infected farms and the outbreak duration for each scenario. The model was simulated in two study areas located in the Lamphaya Klang subdistrict (high farm density) and the Bo Phloi district (low farm density). The effects of control measures differed between the two study areas. When farm density was high, rigid control measures were required to prevent a major outbreak. Among all options, culling the animals on infected farms resulted in the lowest number of infected farms and the shortest outbreak duration. In contrast, for an area with a low farm density, less stringent control measures were sufficient to control the usually minor outbreaks. The results indicate that different areas require a different approach to control an outbreak of FMD.

The hidden carbon impact of animal disease

Livestock production is under scrutiny for its impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Animal disease outbreaks will have economic effects on producers and the indirect cost of an animal disease outbreak is the result of shifts in consumption across commodities. This shift in demand for meat products will also positively or negatively affect carbon emissions. We explore the indirect costs and subsequent carbon impact of four potential exotic disease outbreaks, namely African swine fever, sheep pox, bluetongue, and foot and mouth disease. The indirect costs are quantified under different severities of outbreak using a vector error correction model and by estimating the changes in revenues of livestock and feed markets. By associating subsequent consumption switches with emission factors, we quantify the hidden carbon impact of these livestock disease outbreaks. The indirect costs vary based on severity and type of disease outbreak. Similarly, the net reduction in supply and subsequent consumption impacts result in averting between 0.005 and 0.67 million tonnes of CO2 eq. for these sectors. A foot and mouth disease outbreak has the highest indirect costs and largest reduction in GHG emissions as it decreases the production of cattle as consumers switch to lower emitting meat commodities. Conversely, African swine fever has the smallest reduction in GHG emissions, reflecting the more industrialised nature of pig farming. Our modelling approach opens a provocative debate around how compensation to producers supports restocking and how this relates to commitments to net zero farming. Overall, an exotic disease outbreak may trigger an opportunity to switch to lower emitting breeds or species if a more holistic, joined up approach were taken by Government.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of foot-and-mouth disease vaccination of animals in the buffer zone of the Republic of Armenia in 2016-2020

BACKGROUND

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a high impact viral disease of livestock for which vaccines are extensively used for limiting the spread of infection. Armenia shares a border with both Turkey and Iran where FMD is endemic, making vaccination an important component of Armenia's control strategy. Additionally, Armenian veterinary services utilize both passive and active monitoring for prevention control.

METHODS

We sought to determine the immune status of animals vaccinated against FMD and to evaluate the effectiveness of our vaccination policy in Armenia. This was conducted in three regions including Shirak, Armavir, and Ararat Region which are located in the buffer zones that border Turkey and Iran. Through active monitoring in 2020, we studied blood serum samples from cattle and sheep using an enzyme immunoassay to determine the level of immune animals in these regions following the use of a polyvalent inactivated vaccine containing FMDV serotypes A, O, and Asia-1 that are relevant for this region. ELISA titers were assessed at 28, 90, and 180 days after vaccination in cattle of three age groups at the time of initial vaccination: 4-6 months, 6-18 months and ≥ 24 months of age with sheep of all ages.

RESULTS

The 3 age groups of cattle had similarly high levels of immunity with over 90% of the cattle showing a ≥ 50% protective titer 28 days after the first vaccination. By day 90, titers in cattle from the initial 4-18-month age groups dropped below 58% across the 3 serotypes and at or below 80% for the oldest cattle ≥ 24 months. Re-vaccination of cattle at 120 days did improve protective titers but never reached the level of immunity of the first vaccination. Sheep showed a similar rapid drop to less than 50% having a ≥ 50% protective titer at 90 days emphasizing the need for continual revaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study have important implications for the current FMD vaccine policy in Armenia and improves our understanding of the rapid loss of protective titers over short periods. Since small ruminants are only vaccinated once per year and vaccination titers drop rapidly by 90 days suggests that they are vulnerable to FMD and that vaccination protocols need to be updated. Cattle should continue to be vaccinated every 3-6 months depending on their age to maintain a protective level of antibodies to protect them from FMD. More studies are needed to understand the possible role of small ruminants in the epidemiology of FMD and to evaluate revaccination at shorter intervals. These results show the concerns of rapid loss of protection to both cattle and small ruminants following 1 or more doses of commercial vaccines and that additional vaccines need to be evaluated in both groups to know how often they must be vaccinated to provide full protection. The addition of challenge studies should also be considered to better understand the level of protection as measured by serology and how it relates to protection from challenge. These results should be considered by anyone using these vaccines in cattle and sheep at longer than 3 month intervals.

Broad immunogenic spectrum of monovalent and trivalent foot-and-mouth disease virus vaccines containing O1 campos, A24 cruzeiro and A Argentina 2001 strains against circulating viral lineages in cattle and pigs

FMD remains endemic in many Asian and African countries where multiple variants of serotypes O and A, among others, currently circulate. Due to lack of cross-protection between serotypes and incomplete protection between some strains even within a serotype, an important challenge for the application of effective vaccination programs is to select highly immunogenic and widely cross-reactive vaccine strains. Adaptation of a candidate field virus for use as a vaccine can be quite complex, so that whenever possible, the use of well-established vaccine viruses could have enormous advantages. FMD vaccine strains harmonized for use in South America have shown excellent results in FMD control, not only in the region, where it is still used systematically as a preventive measure, but also more recently in some Asian countries. To gain further insight into the immunogenic spectrum of these strains, VN tests (VNT) were performed with sera from cattle and/or pigs vaccinated with monovalent (type O) or trivalent (types O and A) formulations against 122 type O and 32 type A field viruses isolated from 35 countries in Asia and Africa, belonging to different lineages. Almost all VNT titers obtained were within the expected protective level, indicating the wide immunogenic spectrum of high potency FMD vaccines formulated with O1 Campos, A24 Cruzeiro and A Argentina 2001 South American vaccine strains belonging to EURO-SA topotypes against currently active viruses from other topotypes. These in vitro results are in line with previously reported in vivo challenge tests in pigs against three A/ASIA/Sea-97 isolates and two isolates belonging to type O lineages O/SEA/Mya-98 and O/ME-SA/Ind-2001e.

Quantitative risk assessment of FMDV introduction in a FMD free country through bone-in beef and offal importation from a FMD free with vaccination country/zone

Quantitative risk assessment was used to estimate the risk of introducing foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) through bone-in beef from Argentina (FMD-free with vaccination status) into other FMD-free countries. A stochastic model was built to characterize all the steps from primary production to bone-in beef export and introduction into an FMD-free country. The probability that bone-in beef from at least one animal infected with the FMD virus (FMDV) was exported during a year was 5.27 × 10-3 (95% CI <10-10 - 5.19 x 10-2) or in other words one case in 190 years. The risk of FMDV introduction was sensitive to the probability of an outbreak occurring in Argentina (r [Spearman´s rank correlation] = 0.99) and the number of herds affected during an outbreak (r = 0.10). Additionally, the probability that susceptible animals in the importing country came into contact with infective material (bones) and generated an outbreak was 6.16 × 10-4 (95% CI <10-10 - 6.20 ×10-3) or one FMD outbreak every 1623 years on average. Based on the quantitative risk assessment results, the probability of FMDV introduction into a FMD-free country where vaccination is not practiced from a FMD-free country where vaccination is practiced associated with bone-in beef trade from Argentina was negligible. The risk of an FMD outbreak caused by the potential introduction of the FMDV was associated with the existing conditions in the country. Thus, maintaining the FMD-free status with or without vaccination would not be relevant.

Quantifying production losses associated with foot and mouth disease outbreaks on large-scale dairy farms in Rift valley, Kenya

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is a contagious viral disease to which dairy cattle are highly susceptible. An outbreak of FMD in a dairy herds can cause a drop in milk yield, increase mastitis infections, and force culling. These production losses can be substantial, but farmers undervalue the magnitude of the loss that they incur. The study quantified the association of FMD outbreaks with milk yield, mastitis incidences, and culling rates. The data was from three large-scale dairy farms with a recent history (2008 to 2018) of FMD outbreaks in a region endemic for the prevalence of serotype C of the FMD virus since the mid-1980s in the Rift valley of Kenya. A total of 507 cows were monitored for three consecutive periods of six weeks before, during, and after FMD outbreaks. Relative to the period before and after the disease outbreak, production losses were marked during the outbreak. A disease outbreak was associated with up to 4.7% of the cows drying off (n = 24) and milk production dropped by 16.1%. The incidence of mastitis increased from 5.4% to 21.5% (OR = 3.31, CI = 2.27, 4.83) and culling rates increased from 0.59% to 3.8% (OR = 6.71, CI = 1.99, 22.58).

Socioeconomic and environmental determinants of foot and mouth disease incidence: an ecological, cross-sectional study across Iran using spatial modeling

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious animal disease caused by a ribonucleic acid (RNA) virus, with significant economic costs and uneven distribution across Asia, Africa, and South America. While spatial analysis and modeling of FMD are still in their early stages, this research aimed to identify socio-environmental determinants of FMD incidence in Iran at the provincial level by studying 135 outbreaks reported between March 21, 2017, and March 21, 2018. We obtained 46 potential socio-environmental determinants and selected four variables, including percentage of population, precipitation in January, percentage of sheep, and percentage of goats, to be used in spatial regression models to estimate variation in spatial heterogeneity. In our analysis, we employed global models, namely ordinary least squares (OLS), spatial error model (SEM), and spatial lag model (SLM), as well as local models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR). The MGWR model yielded the highest adjusted [Formula: see text] of 90%, outperforming the other local and global models. Using local models to map the effects of environmental determinants (such as the percentage of sheep and precipitation) on the spatial variability of FMD incidence provides decision-makers with helpful information for targeted interventions. Our findings advocate for multiscale and multidisciplinary policies to reduce FMD incidence.

A review of foot-and-mouth disease status and control measures in Botswana

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), an economically important disease of livestock, is endemic in Botswana. The country has been affected by this disease since the early 1930s, and FMD virus (FMDV) continues to circulate in both domestic and wild animal populations. Botswana is affected by the Southern African Territories (SAT1-3) of FMDV. Up to 80% of the income in the agricultural sector in Botswana is derived from the beef production, and about 70% of Botswana's beef exports go to the European Union (EU) market. Thus, trade restrictions caused by FMD outbreaks may result in declines in revenue. In this review, the FMD status of Botswana from 2006 to 2022 is discussed. During the report period, SAT2 was responsible for 80 out of a total of 87 FMD outbreaks, while SAT1 was responsible for 7 out of 87 outbreaks. These outbreaks were a result of SAT1 topotype I and SAT2 topotypes I, II, and III. There were no outbreaks associated with serotype SAT3 over the review span, suggesting absence of this serotype in the country, although it is still maintained in vaccines formulated for use in Botswana. Most of the outbreaks reported in this review occurred in the North West district of Botswana; an area that is heavily populated with cloven hooved wildlife. This highlights the role of wildlife-domestic animal interaction in FMD spread and maintenance. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations has created a progressive control pathway for FMD (PCP-FMD) for the global elimination of FMD to reduce FMD-related losses. This review highlights how Botswana takes part in the PCP-FMD by putting in place control measures such as surveillance and vaccination. The review also touches on the disease control challenges such as limitations to separation of livestock with populations of buffaloes and lapses in livestock vaccination which contribute to maintenance of FMDV circulation in Botswana.

A foot and mouth disease ranking of risk using cattle transportation

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious condition that affects domestic and wild cloven-hoofed animals. This disease has substantial economic consequences. Livestock movement is one of the primary causes of disease dissemination. The centrality properties of the livestock mobilization transportation network provide valuable information for surveillance and control of FMD. However, the same transportation network can be described by different centrality descriptions, making it challenging to prioritize the most vulnerable nodes in the transportation network. This work considers the construction of a single network risk ranking, which helps prioritize disease control measurements. Results show that the proposed ranking constructed on 2016 livestock mobilization data may predict an actual outbreak reported in the Cesar (Colombia) region in 2018, with a performance measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.91. This result constitutes the first quantitative evidence of the predictive capacity of livestock transportation to target FMD outbreaks. This approach may help decision-makers devise strategies to control and prevent FMD.

Rising Temperature and the Spatiotemporal Patterns of Foot and Mouth Disease of Livestock in Mongolia

BACKGROUND

Climate change is projected to have cascading effects on the environment and thereby trigger effects on animal health, human health and wellbeing. Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease affecting cloven-hoofed animals that has had dramatic socioeconomic impacts on nomadic pastoralist communities who are increasingly vulnerable to environmental degradation and climate change. FMD outbreaks are occurring more frequently in Mongolia and the effects of climatic change, such as more droughts, increasing temperature, and changing snow fall patterns, are also becoming more obvious.

METHODS

In this study we use spatiotemporal mapping and regression analyses to explore trends and associations between climate variables and FMD outbreaks across Mongolia from 2010 to 2020.

RESULTS

We found that the number of days with temperature above 80 °F in a province in a given year was associated with having a FMD outbreak. None of the other climate variables were associated with FMD outbreaks at the provincial level.

CONCLUSION

Given the projected increase in warming temperatures across Mongolia, there is a need to further explore the association between rising temperatures and FMD outbreaks to prevent FMD from having cascading impacts on nomadic herder communities. Mitigating approaches for herders to use to reduce the impact of rising number of hot days on FMD spread needs to be devised and governments in countries with nomadic herding communities should enact climate adaptation policies for them.

Factors associated with foot-and-mouth disease seroprevalence in small ruminants and identification of hot-spot areas in northern Nigeria

Many small ruminants infected with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) remain asymptomatic, with the capacity to promote silent viral spread within domestic and wildlife species. However, little is known about the epidemiological role played by small ruminants in FMD. In particular, there are few studies that examine FMD seroprevalence, spatial patterns and risk factors for exposure in small ruminants. A cross-sectional study was conducted in northern Nigeria (Bauchi, Kaduna, and Plateau States) to determine the true seroprevalence of FMD in backyard small ruminants, identify factors associated with FMD seroconversion at animal and household levels, and identify spatial patterns for FMD virus exposure. Data on animal (n = 1800) and household (n = 300) characteristics were collected using a standardised questionnaire. Sera samples from 1800 small ruminants were tested for antibodies against non-structural proteins of FMD virus. True seroprevalence was estimated stochastically to account for variability and uncertainty in the test sensitivity and specificity previously reported. Risk factors for FMD seropositivity were identified at animal and household levels and spatial patterns were determined. The overall true seroprevalence for FMD virus, in the small ruminant population tested, was estimated to be 10.2 % (95 % Credible Interval (CrI) 0.0-19.0), while State-level estimates were 17.3 % (95 % CrI 0.0-25.8) for Kaduna, 6.9 % (95% CrI 0.0-15.8) for Bauchi, and 3.6 % (95 % CrI 0.0-12.6) for Plateau. State and species were the main risk factors identified at animal level, with interaction detected between them. Compared to goats in Plateau, the odds of testing positive were higher for goats in Bauchi (Odds Ratio (OR)= 1.83, 95 % CI 1.13-2.97, p = 0.01) and Kaduna (OR=2.97, 95 % CI 1.89-4.67, p < 0.001), as well as for sheep in Plateau (OR=3.78, 95 % CI 2.08-6.87, p < 0.001), Bauchi (OR=1.61, 95 % CI 0.91-2.84, p = 0.10), and Kaduna (OR=3.11, 95 % CI 1.61-6.01, p = 0.001). Households located in Kaduna were more likely to have a higher number of seropositive SR compared to those in Plateau (Prevalence Ratio (PR)= 1.75, 95 % CI 1.30-2.36, p < 0.001), and households keeping sheep flocks were more likely to be seropositive (from 1 to 10 sheep: PR=1.39, 95 % CI 1.05-1.82, p = 0.02; more than 10 sheep: PR=1.55, 95 % CI 1.12-2.15, p = 0.008) compared to those that did not keep sheep. A hot-spot was detected in Kaduna, and a cold-spot in Plateau. These results reveal that small ruminants had been recently exposed to FMD virus with spatial heterogeneity across the study area.

Phylogeography as a Proxy for Population Connectivity for Spatial Modeling of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Vietnam

Bayesian space-time regression models are helpful tools to describe and predict the distribution of infectious disease outbreaks and to delineate high-risk areas for disease control. In these models, structured and unstructured spatial and temporal effects account for various forms of non-independence amongst case counts across spatial units. Structured spatial effects capture correlations in case counts amongst neighboring provinces arising from shared risk factors or population connectivity. For highly mobile populations, spatial adjacency is an imperfect measure of connectivity due to long-distance movement, but we often lack data on host movements. Phylogeographic models inferring routes of viral dissemination across a region could serve as a proxy for patterns of population connectivity. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the effects of population connectivity in space-time regressions of case counts were better captured by spatial adjacency or by inferences from phylogeographic analyses. To compare these two approaches, we used foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) outbreak data from across Vietnam as an example. We identified that accounting for virus movement through phylogeographic analysis serves as a better proxy for population connectivity than spatial adjacency in spatial-temporal risk models. This approach may contribute to design surveillance activities in countries lacking movement data.

Analysis of cattle movement networks in Paraguay: Implications for the spread and control of infectious diseases

Beef exports represent a substantial part of Paraguay's agricultural sector. Cattle movements involve a high risk due to the possible spread of bovine diseases that can have a significant impact on the country's economy. We analyzed cattle movements from 2014 to 2018 using the networks analysis methodology at the holding and district levels at different temporal scales. We built two types of networks to identify network characteristics that may contribute to the spread of two diseases with different epidemiological characteristics: i) a network including all cattle movements to consider the transmission of a disease of rapid spread like foot and mouth disease, and ii) a network including only cow movements to account for bovine brucellosis, a disease of slow spread that occurs mainly in adult females. Network indicators did not vary substantially among the cattle and cow only networks. The holdings/districts included in the largest strongly connected components were distributed throughout the country. Percolation analysis performed at the holding level showed that a large number of holdings should be removed to make the largest strongly connected component disappear. Higher values of the centrality indicators were found for markets than for farms, indicating that they may play an important role in the spread of an infectious disease. At the holding level (but not at the district level), the networks exhibited characteristics of small-world networks. This property may facilitate the spread of foot and mouth disease in case of re-emergence, or of bovine brucellosis in the country through cattle movements. They should be taken into account when implementing surveillance or control measures for these diseases.

Assessment of the Risk of Foot and Mouth Disease among Beef Cattle at Slaughter from East African Production Systems

Endemic foot and mouth disease (FMD) in East African cattle systems is one factor that limits access to export markets. The probability of FMD transmission associated with export from such systems have never been quantified and there is a need for data and analyses to guide strategies for livestock exports from regions where FMD remains endemic. The probability of infection among animals at slaughter is an important contributor to the risk of FMD transmission associated with the final beef product. In this study, we built a stochastic model to estimate the probability that beef cattle reach slaughter while infected with FMD virus for four production systems in two East African countries (Kenya and Uganda). Input values were derived from the primary literature and expert opinion. We found that the risk that FMD-infected animals reach slaughter under current conditions is high in both countries (median annual probability ranging from 0.05 among cattle from Kenyan feedlots to 0.62 from Ugandan semi-intensive systems). Cattle originating from feedlot and ranching systems in Kenya had the lowest overall probabilities of the eight systems evaluated. The final probabilities among cattle from all systems were sensitive to the likelihood of acquiring new infections en route to slaughter and especially the probability and extent of commingling with other cattle. These results give insight into factors that could be leveraged by potential interventions to lower the probability of FMD among beef cattle at slaughter. Such interventions should be evaluated considering the cost, logistics, and tradeoffs of each, ultimately guiding resource investment that is grounded in the values and capacity of each country.

Foot-and-mouth disease viruses of the O/ME-SA/Ind-2001e sublineage in Pakistan

The presence of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) of the O/ME-SA/Ind-2001e sublineage within Pakistan was initially detected in two samples collected during 2019. Analysis of further serotype O FMDVs responsible for disease outbreaks in 2019-2020 in the country has now identified the spread of this sublineage to 10 districts within two separate provinces in North-Eastern and North-Western Pakistan. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that these viruses are closely related to those circulating in Bhutan, Nepal and India. The VP1 coding sequences of these viruses from Pakistan belong to three distinct clusters, which may indicate multiple introductions of this virus sublineage, although the routes of introduction are unknown. Vaccine matching studies against O1 Manisa, O 3039 and O TUR/5/2009 support the suitability of existing vaccine strains to control current field outbreaks, but further studies are warranted to monitor the spread and evolution of the O/ME-SA/Ind-2001e sublineage in the region. (145 words).

Survey of emergency response plans for managing the movement of cattle during a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in North America

OBJECTIVE

To collect information from US state animal health officials (SAHOs) and beef feedlot managers and veterinarians regarding emergency response plans for movement of cattle in the event of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in North America.

SAMPLE

36 SAHOs, 26 feedlot veterinarians, and 7 feedlot managers.

PROCEDURES

3 versions of an electronic questionnaire were created and distributed to SAHOs and US feedlot veterinarians and managers to gather information about planned or expected responses to an FMD outbreak that originated at 1 of 3 geographic locations (Mexico or Canada, a bordering state, or a nonbordering state). Descriptive data were reported.

RESULTS

All respondents recognized that the risk of FMD transmission to livestock in their area or care increased as the outbreak got closer in proximity to their location. Most SAHOs indicated that they would immediately close their state's borders to livestock movement at the beginning of an FMD outbreak, particularly if the disease was identified in a bordering state. During an extended FMD outbreak, 29 of 36 (80.6%) SAHOs reported they would resume interstate movement of cattle under some conditions, including enhanced permitting, whereas feedlot veterinarians and managers commonly reported they would be willing to receive cattle from states where no FMD-infected animals were identified, regardless of permit requirements.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Information gained from this survey can be used to inform disease modeling and preparedness efforts to facilitate business continuity of US beef feedlots in the event of an FMD outbreak in North America.

Self-Reporting of Risk Pathways and Parameter Values for Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Slaughter Cattle from Alternative Production Systems by Kenyan and Ugandan Veterinarians

Countries in which foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic may face bans on the export of FMD-susceptible livestock and products because of the associated risk for transmission of FMD virus. Risk assessment is an essential tool for demonstrating the fitness of one’s goods for the international marketplace and for improving animal health. However, it is difficult to obtain the necessary data for such risk assessments in many countries where FMD is present. This study bridged the gaps of traditional participatory and expert elicitation approaches by partnering with veterinarians from the National Veterinary Services of Kenya (n = 13) and Uganda (n = 10) enrolled in an extended capacity-building program to systematically collect rich, local knowledge in a format appropriate for formal quantitative analysis. Participants mapped risk pathways and quantified variables that determine the risk of infection among cattle at slaughter originating from each of four beef production systems in each country. Findings highlighted that risk processes differ between management systems, that disease and sale are not always independent events, and that events on the risk pathway are influenced by the actions and motivations of value chain actors. The results provide necessary information for evaluating the risk of FMD among cattle pre-harvest in Kenya and Uganda and provide a framework for similar evaluation in other endemic settings.

A grim anniversary - 20 years since burning pyres marred our landscape

Georgina Mills reflects on the 2001 foot-and-mouth outbreak and the lessons that have been learned since then.

Seroprevalence of bovine foot and mouth disease (FMD) and its associated risk factors in selected districts of Afar region, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

A cross-sectional study was conducted from November 2018 to May 2019 to estimate seroprevalence of foot and mouth disease virus for cattle and assess associated risk factors in selected districts of afar region. Simple random sampling technique was employed to select the study areas. A total of 384 bovine sera were collected from 72 herds and seroprevalence of the disease was determined using 3ABC-ELISA technique. Data were recorded and coded using Microsoft Excel spread sheet and analysed using STATA. Potential risk factors of the disease were also assessed using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Out of 384 sera tested at National Veterinary Institute, the overall seroprevalence of foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus was 19.8% (n = 76; 95% CI = 15.8-23.79) at animal level and 56.94% at herd level. The herd level seroprevalence was higher in animals tested from Dubti (85%, n = 17) than Asayita (48.13%, n = 13) and Chifra (44%, n = 11). Among the associated risk factors, age, herd size, district and contact with wild life were statistically associated with foot and mouth disease serostatus (p < 0.05). Medium and large herd size animals were 2.49 (95% CI: 1.33-6.63) and 6.05 (95% CI: 2.54-14.43) times more likely to develop the disease as compared to animals from small herd size, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study finding revealed that FMD was more prevalent and economically significant disease in the study districts. Hence, further studies ought to be conducted to estimate the region wise serostatus magnitude of the disease, to assess its economic impact and to identify the circulating serotypes and strains in the areas.

Epidemiological study on foot-and-mouth disease in small ruminants: Sero-prevalence and risk factor assessment in Kenya

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Kenya affecting cloven-hoofed ruminants. The epidemiology of the disease in small ruminants (SR) in Kenya is not documented. We carried out a cross-sectional study, the first in Kenya, to estimate the sero-prevalence of FMD in SR and the associated risk factors nationally. Selection of animals to be sampled used a multistage cluster sampling approach. Serum samples totaling 7564 were screened for FMD antibodies of non-structural-proteins using ID Screen^® NSP Competition ELISA kit. To identify the risk factors, generalized linear mixed effects (GLMM) logistic regression analysis with county and villages as random effect variables was used. The country animal level sero-prevalence was 22.5% (95% CI: 22.3%-24.3%) while herd level sero-prevalence was 77.6% (95% CI: 73.9%-80.9%). The risk factor that was significantly positively associated with FMD sero-positivity in SR was multipurpose production type (OR = 1.307; p = 0.042). The risk factors that were significantly negatively associated with FMD sero-positivity were male sex (OR = 0.796; p = 0.007), young age (OR = 0.470; p = 0.010), and sedentary production zone (OR = 0.324; p<0.001). There were no statistically significant intra class correlations among the random effect variables but interactions between age and sex variables among the studied animals were statistically significant (p = 0.019). This study showed that there may be widespread undetected virus circulation in SR indicated by the near ubiquitous spatial distribution of significant FMD sero-positivity in the country. Strengthening of risk-based FMD surveillance in small ruminants is recommended. Adjustment of husbandry practices to control FMD in SR and in-contact species is suggested. Cross-transmission of FMD and more risk factors need to be researched.

Efficacy and application of a novel topical anaesthetic wound formulation for treating cattle with Foot-and-Mouth disease: A field trial in Cameroon

Recently, a wound dressing formulation, (Tri-Solfen®, Medical Ethics Pty Ltd, Australia; TS) registered for use in ruminant husbandry in Australia, was registered for Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) therapy in large ruminants in Laos, following clinical observations of improved welfare and healing following treatment of FMD lesions. In November 2019, an FMD outbreak in Cameroon provided an opportunity for a field trial, comparing clinical responses and recoveries to treatments on a sample of cattle (n = 36) comprising three equal groups of animals (n = 12), comparing responses to three treatments: (i) the application to lesions of TS, (ii) the administration of parenteral oxytetraycline commonly used for FMD in Cameroon; and (iii) an untreated control group (C). Appetite scores, lesion healing scores, and changes in dimensions of lesions, were recorded over a 15-day study period. Cattle treated with TS achieved both superior appetite and lesion healing scores with more rapid reduction in dimensions of lesions than other groups. Farmer observations indicated the TS treatment group had a more rapid return to eating with cessation of excessive salivation, and more rapid return of mobility (walking) with absence of overt lameness. The findings indicate that although mortality is usually low in FMD outbreaks, the disease is a debilitating and painful disorder with negative animal welfare impacts that should be addressed. All farmers expressed their desire that the product be made available for use in their region and modelling indicates that TS therapy imposes no additional financial burden on farmers, with the treatment likely to be provided at a similar or reduced cost to current treatment choices. As use of antibiotics for treatment of a viral disease potentially increases pressures for development of antimicrobial resistance and residues in the food chain, TS as an alternative non-antimicrobial therapy should be promoted for wider use in FMD outbreaks.

An evaluation tool to strengthen the collaborative process of the public-private partnership in the veterinary domain

Public-private partnerships (PPPs) in the veterinary domain are widely implemented worldwide and can help to strengthen the capacities of Veterinary Services. Few analyses have been made of these initiatives. This study is aimed at developing an evaluation tool based on participatory approaches and focusing on the quality of PPP processes in the veterinary domain. The tool was divided into ten sections relevant to PPP process organisation and activities. The 44 evaluation criteria and six quality attributes (operationality, relevance, acceptability, inclusiveness, adaptability, and stability) were identified based on literature review and case-study application. The tool was adjusted during four regional PPP training workshops bringing together stakeholders from both public and private sectors. Finally, the tool was validated through an experts' elicitation process and applied in the field in Paraguay. The tool was developed in a non-normative perspective to help the partners adapt the PPP to their specific context, to maximize the opportunities and minimize the risks of such collaborations, and to formulate adapted recommendations to strengthen and improve the PPP collaborative process and thus the outcomes. In an ex-ante perspective, this tool would also help public and private actors to engage and develop a PPP process following the best possible practices. The aim of this tool is to help decision making in terms of PPP development and implementation in the veterinary domain to ensure the added value and relevance of such a collaborative approach in different countries worldwide.

Seroepidemiology of Foot and Mouth Disease using passive surveillance techniques in selected provinces of Lao PDR

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is a high-impact, contagious transboundary animal disease that is endemic in Southeast Asia. Abattoir samples were routinely collected in six selected provinces between March and December 2019. A total of 1280 samples of abattoir animals were tested for FMD Non-Structural Protein (NSP) antibodies to indicate natural infections. Overall, 22.8% were seropositive for FMD NSP antibodies while seroprevalence of cattle (n = 469), buffalo (n = 214), and pigs (n = 597) were 44.6%, 35.0%, and 1.3%, respectively. The highest seroprevalence destination province was Xiengkhouang (35.3% of 272 samples), followed by Savannakhet (27.0% of 244 samples). Risk factors for evidence of natural infection identified by a multivariate logistic regression model included age groups (p-value = 0.02) and origin provinces (p-value = 2.8 × 10⁻⁵) of the animals. There were significant differences of FMD NSP seroprevalence between age groups and origin provinces of the animals. The odds ratio of a seropositive result in the less than 1 year old group was 2.5 (95% CI; 1.4, 4.4) when compared to the 3–4 years old group, while the odds ratios for animals that originated from Khammouane and Xiengkhouang provinces were 4.5 (95% CI; 1.1, 18.7) and 2.4 (95% CI; 1.4, 4.1), respectively, when compared to Champasak province. Serotype-specific antibody ELISA for 44 NSP antibody–positive samples revealed evidence of FMD serotypes O and A virus circulation in some provinces. Despite the passive abattoir survey providing useful information on FMD virus previous exposure and geographic locations of the animals, timely information on FMD virus circulation and distribution is also crucial to an effective control program. Alternative approaches to increase the cost-effectiveness of the surveillance network are also discussed.

Temporal-spatial analysis of an age-space structured foot-and-mouth disease model with Dirichlet boundary condition

Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly contagious and economically devastating disease of cloven-hoofed animals. The historic occurrences of foot-and-mouth diseases led to huge economic losses and seriously threatened the livestock food security. In this paper, a novel age-space diffusive foot-and-mouth disease model with a Dirichlet boundary condition, coupling the virus-to-animals and animals-to-animals transmission routes, has been proposed. The basic reproduction number R₀ is defined as the spectral radius of a next generation operator K, which is calculated in an explicit form, and it serves as a vital value determining whether or not the disease persists. The existence of a unique trivial nonconstant steady state and at least one nonconstant endemic steady state of the system is established by a smart Lyapunov functional and the Kronoselskii fixed point theorem. An application to a foot-and-mouth outbreak in China is presented. The findings suggest that increasing the movements and disinfection of the environment for animals apparently reduce the risk of a foot-and-mouth infection.

Understanding what shapes disease control: An historical analysis of foot-and-mouth disease in Kenya

Interpreting the interplay between politics, social demographics and epidemiology is essential for understanding how a disease's occurrence and control evolve over time. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus was first detected in Kenya in 1915 and serotyped in 1932. This review aims to describe and appraise initiatives to control FMD in Kenya since its independence from British rule in 1964, using information from the scientific literature. We describe the historical dynamics of FMD epidemiology in the country and determine socio-political factors that have shaped the control strategies used. PubMed, Scopus, CAB abstracts, Science Direct, Web of Science and Google Scholar were used to search and retrieve papers, using predetermined search criteria encompassing FMD, Kenya and disease control programme descriptors. In total 1234 papers were identified and screened for relevance using the World Health Organization's guidelines for rapid review. Ultimately 69 references from this search were included, and information extracted and consolidated. These papers highlight that following independence, there was a structured effort to control FMD consisting of a compulsory subsidised vaccination programme in the Rift Valley with movement controls and quarantine when outbreaks occurred. This programme led to an initial decrease in recorded FMD outbreaks. However, endemic circulation continued and this programme was discontinued due to multiple factors, including political deprioritisation and changes in the structure of veterinary services. Only low levels of active surveillance have been applied since 1964; most surveillance is passive and relies on outbreak reports. Currently control focuses on outbreak management and a mixture of public- and privately-funded vaccination. This review highlights critical drivers influencing disease control programme implementation including veterinary service structure, the active participation of stakeholders with farming systems and availability of affordable and matched FMD vaccine. Additionally, it appraises the availability of historical information and draws attention to gaps in the historical record.

Spatial distribution and risk areas of foot and mouth disease in mainland China

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a severe infectious disease in animal, which affects regional economies and food security of many countries. A total of 109 FMD outbreaks in China (from 2010 to 2019) were assessed. To investigate whether the FMD outbreaks were significantly aggregated in China, spatio-temporal cluster analysis was performed. A MaxEnt model was established to identify high risk areas for FMD in China and to identify relevant risk factors. As a result, both the FMD serotype A and O had one cluster each. Roads density, isothermality, UV-B seasonality and railways density were identified as important factors that affect the occurrence of FMD serotype A. The minimum temperature of the coldest month contributed most to FMD serotype O outbreak, followed by railways density and markets distribution. This study may provide useful information for decision makers for the tailoring of a risk-based surveillance of FMD in China.

An index for multidimensional assessment of swine health

Pork accounts for almost one-third of the meat consumed worldwide. Infectious diseases have a marked impact on pig production. Epidemiological indicators are considered the most useful criteria in decision-making; however, a health status assessment remains a challenge at the national and regional levels. This study proposes a health index including herd-losses, morbidity, fatality, and type of diseases, to rate the health situation in a region or country; it contributes to assessing the effectiveness of control, damage manifestation, and trends. It is a multidimensional index with a structure of triads and simple quantitative, semi-quantitative, and qualitative expressions that use flexible and dynamics limits. With it, we analyzed twenty-one countries in 2005-2018, focusing on African swine fever, classical swine fever, foot-mouth-disease, and porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome, diseases that caused 72% of the morbidity. Our multidimensional approach estimates farm, local, and regional impact from infectious agents and outbreaks, and apprises trends aiming to be useful to control measures, strategic actions, and animal health policies.

[Eradication of foot-and-mouth disease in France]

Eradication of foot-and-mouth disease in France Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease that affects domestic and wild artiodactyls (mainly cattle, sheep, goats, pigs, camelids and deer). Before the 1980s, Europe, and in particular France, regularly experienced FMD epizootics with a very high number of outbreaks. A compulsory vaccination policy has been implemented at European level. Thus, every year, the French population of domestic cattle (about 20 million animals) was vaccinated. In 1991, due to the lack of detection of the circulating virus, vaccination was stopped. Since that date, France has become a country free from foot-and-mouth disease. The fight against this disease is a good example of the efficacy of vaccination to eradicate Foot-and-mouth disease virus.

Challenges to the Application of Spatially Explicit Stochastic Simulation Models for Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control in Endemic Settings: A Systematic Review

Simulation modeling has become common for estimating the spread of highly contagious animal diseases. Several models have been developed to mimic the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in specific regions or countries, conduct risk assessment, analyze outbreaks using historical data or hypothetical scenarios, assist in policy decisions during epidemics, formulate preparedness plans, and evaluate economic impacts. Majority of the available FMD simulation models were designed for and applied in disease-free countries, while there has been limited use of such models in FMD endemic countries. This paper's objective was to report the findings from a study conducted to review the existing published original research literature on spatially explicit stochastic simulation (SESS) models of FMD spread, focusing on assessing these models for their potential use in endemic settings. The goal was to identify the specific components of endemic FMD needed to adapt these SESS models for their potential application in FMD endemic settings. This systematic review followed the PRISMA guidelines, and three databases were searched, which resulted in 1176 citations. Eighty citations finally met the inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis, identifying nine unique SESS models. These SESS models were assessed for their potential application in endemic settings. The assessed SESS models can be adapted for use in FMD endemic countries by modifying the underlying code to include multiple cocirculating serotypes, routine prophylactic vaccination (RPV), and livestock population dynamics to more realistically mimic the endemic characteristics of FMD. The application of SESS models in endemic settings will help evaluate strategies for FMD control, which will improve livestock health, provide economic gains for producers, help alleviate poverty and hunger, and will complement efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.