Critical assessment of the effectiveness of different dust control measures in a granite quarry

The exposure to respirable crystalline silica found in granite dust presents significant health hazards to quarry workers and nearby communities, including silicosis and various respiratory ailments. This study evaluates the efficacy of various pollution control measures implemented in granite quarries. It aimed to provide a comprehensive critical assessment of the effectiveness of various dust control measures, considering their mechanisms, impact on air quality, and implications for worker health and community welfare. The strategy involved compiling and systematically analysing existing research articles, literature, and industry reports. The investigation identified three primary categories of measures: engineering controls, water-based suppression methods, and technological solutions. The study highlighted the significance of environmental impact and sustainability factors in selecting measures. These factors include water and energy consumption, production of secondary pollutants, long-term ecological effects, regulatory compliance, and cost-effectiveness. Operators and policymakers should utilize integrated, context-specific, inventive, and interdisciplinary strategies to efficiently control particle emissions from granite quarrying.

Public acceptance of COVID-19 control measures and associated factors during Omicron-dominant period in China: a cross-sectional survey

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to evaluate the public acceptance of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) control measures during the Omicron-dominant period and its associated factors.

METHODS

A cross-sectional design was conducted and 1391 study participants were openly recruited to participate in the questionnaire survey. Logistic regression model was performed to assess the association between the public acceptance and potential factors more specifically.

RESULTS

By August 26, 2022, 58.9% of the study participants were less acceptive of the control measures while 41.1% expressed higher acceptance. Factors associated with lower acceptance included young age, such as < 18 (OR = 8.251, 95% CI: 2.009 to 33.889) and 18-29 (OR = 2.349, 95% CI: 1.564 to 3.529), and household per capita monthly income lower than 5000 yuan (OR = 1.512, 95% CI: 1.085 to 2.105). Furthermore, individuals who perceived that the case fatality rate (CFR) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) was very low (OR = 6.010, 95% CI: 2.475 to 14.595) and that the restrictions could be eased once the CFR dropped to 2-3 times of the influenza (OR = 2.792, 95% CI: 1.939 to 4.023) showed greater oppositional attitudes. Likewise, respondents who were dissatisfied with control measures (OR = 9.639, 95% CI: 4.425 to 20.998) or preferred fully relaxation as soon as possible (OR = 13.571, 95% CI: 7.751 to 23.758) had even lower acceptability. By contrast, rural residents (OR = 0.683, 95% CI: 0.473 to 0.987), students (OR = 0.510, 95% CI: 0.276 to 0.941), public (OR = 0.417, 95% CI: 0.240 to 0.727) and private (OR = 0.562, 95% CI: 0.320 to 0.986) employees, and vaccinated participants (OR = 0.393, 95% CI: 0.204 to 0.756) were more compliant with control measures.

CONCLUSION

More than half of the Chinese public were less supportive of COVID-19 control measures during Omicron-dominant period, which varied based on their different demographic characteristics, cognition and overall attitude towards SARS-CoV-2 infection. Control measures that struck a balance between public safety and individual freedom would be more acceptable during the pandemic.

Physiochemistry and sources of individual particles in response to intensified controls during the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing

To investigate the particle sources before, during, and after the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic and Paralympic (WOP) in Beijing, ambient particles were passively collected from January to March 2022. The physicochemical properties including morphology, size, shape parameters, and elemental compositions were analyzed by the IntelliSEM EPAS (an advanced computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy [CCSEM] system). Using the user-defined classification rules, 37,174 individual particles were automatically classified into 27 major groups and further attributed to seven major sources based on the source-associated characteristics, including mineral dust, secondary aerosol, combustion/industry, carbonaceous particles, salt-related particles, biological particles, and fiber particles. Our results showed that mineral dust (66.5%), combustion/industry (12.6%), and secondary aerosol (6.3%) were the three major sources in a wide size range of 0.2-42.8 μm. During the Winter Olympic Games period, low emission of anthropogenic particles and favorable meteorological conditions contributed to significantly improved air quality. During the Winter Paralympic Games period, more particles sourced from the dust storm, secondary formed particles, and the adverse meteorological conditions resulted in relatively worse air quality. The secondary aerosol all decreased during the competition period, while increased during the non-competition period. Sulfate-related particles had explosive growth and further aggravate the pollution degree during the non-competition period, especially under adverse meteorological conditions. These results provide microscopic evidence revealing variations of physicochemical properties and sources in response to the control measures and meteorological conditions.

how these findings canPublic transport: lessons learned by the sector through the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the operations and functionality of the public transport sector in the UK. This paper reflects on the experience of this sector through the pandemic period, and considers recommendations for any future mitigations required for either new COVID-19 waves or a different public health emergency.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews were carried out with public transport experts, organisational leaders, workers and passengers in two phases: Phase 1 from January to May 2021, and Phase 2 from December 2021 to February 2022. Interviews were analysed thematically.

RESULTS

Using the 'What? So What? Now What?' reflective model, ideas are drawn out to describe (a) what changes occurred, (b) what effects these changes had on service provision as well as perceptions of risk and mitigation and (c) what lessons have been learned and how these findings can feed into pandemic preparedness for the future. Respondent reflections focussed on the importance of communication, leadership, and maintaining compliance.

CONCLUSIONS

The wealth of experience gained through the COVID-19 pandemic in the public transport sector is extremely valuable. Through reflection on this experience, specific recommendations are made relating to these factors, covering: maintaining links across industry, access to information and data, understanding of mitigation effectiveness, improving messaging, challenges of behavioural mitigations, and clear lines of accountability. The recommendations made on the basis of this reflective process will help to improve public health strategy within the public transport sector.

Unmasking the COVID-19 pandemic prevention gains: excess mortality reversal in 2022

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to assess the long-term effectiveness of COVID-19 pandemic prevention measures in saving lives after European governments began to lift restrictions.

STUDY DESIGN

Excess mortality interrupted time series.

METHODS

Country-level weekly data on deaths were fitted to the Poisson mixed linear model to estimate excess deaths. Based on this estimate, the percentage of excess deaths above the baseline during the pandemic (week 11 in 2020 to week 15 in 2022) (when public health interventions were in place) and during the post-pandemic period (week 16 in 2022 to week 52 in 2022) were calculated. These results were fitted to the linear regression model to determine any potential relationship between mortality during these two periods.

RESULTS

The model used in this study had high predictive value (adjusted R2 = 59.4%). Mortality during the endemic (post-pandemic) period alone increased by 7.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.7, 8.6) above baseline, while each percentage increase in mortality during the pandemic corresponded to a 0.357% reduction (95% CI: 0.243, 0.471) in mortality during the post-pandemic period.

CONCLUSIONS

The most successful countries in terms of protective measures also experienced the highest mortality rates after restrictions were lifted. The model used in this study clearly shows a measure of bidirectional mortality displacement that is sufficiently clear to mask any impact of long COVID on overall mortality. Results from this study also seriously impact previous cost-benefit analyses of pandemic prevention measures, since, according to the current model, 12.2% (95% CI: 8.3, 16.1) of the gains achieved in pandemic containment were lost after restrictions were lifted.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of foot-and-mouth disease vaccination of animals in the buffer zone of the Republic of Armenia in 2016-2020

BACKGROUND

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a high impact viral disease of livestock for which vaccines are extensively used for limiting the spread of infection. Armenia shares a border with both Turkey and Iran where FMD is endemic, making vaccination an important component of Armenia's control strategy. Additionally, Armenian veterinary services utilize both passive and active monitoring for prevention control.

METHODS

We sought to determine the immune status of animals vaccinated against FMD and to evaluate the effectiveness of our vaccination policy in Armenia. This was conducted in three regions including Shirak, Armavir, and Ararat Region which are located in the buffer zones that border Turkey and Iran. Through active monitoring in 2020, we studied blood serum samples from cattle and sheep using an enzyme immunoassay to determine the level of immune animals in these regions following the use of a polyvalent inactivated vaccine containing FMDV serotypes A, O, and Asia-1 that are relevant for this region. ELISA titers were assessed at 28, 90, and 180 days after vaccination in cattle of three age groups at the time of initial vaccination: 4-6 months, 6-18 months and ≥ 24 months of age with sheep of all ages.

RESULTS

The 3 age groups of cattle had similarly high levels of immunity with over 90% of the cattle showing a ≥ 50% protective titer 28 days after the first vaccination. By day 90, titers in cattle from the initial 4-18-month age groups dropped below 58% across the 3 serotypes and at or below 80% for the oldest cattle ≥ 24 months. Re-vaccination of cattle at 120 days did improve protective titers but never reached the level of immunity of the first vaccination. Sheep showed a similar rapid drop to less than 50% having a ≥ 50% protective titer at 90 days emphasizing the need for continual revaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study have important implications for the current FMD vaccine policy in Armenia and improves our understanding of the rapid loss of protective titers over short periods. Since small ruminants are only vaccinated once per year and vaccination titers drop rapidly by 90 days suggests that they are vulnerable to FMD and that vaccination protocols need to be updated. Cattle should continue to be vaccinated every 3-6 months depending on their age to maintain a protective level of antibodies to protect them from FMD. More studies are needed to understand the possible role of small ruminants in the epidemiology of FMD and to evaluate revaccination at shorter intervals. These results show the concerns of rapid loss of protection to both cattle and small ruminants following 1 or more doses of commercial vaccines and that additional vaccines need to be evaluated in both groups to know how often they must be vaccinated to provide full protection. The addition of challenge studies should also be considered to better understand the level of protection as measured by serology and how it relates to protection from challenge. These results should be considered by anyone using these vaccines in cattle and sheep at longer than 3 month intervals.

COVID-19 associated Mucormycosis among ICU patients: risk factors, control, and challenges

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic is still difficult to be controlled. The spread of this virus and the emergence of new variants are considered a great challenge worldwide. Disturbance in infection control guidelines implementation, use of steroids, antibiotics, hospital crowdedness, and repeated use of oxygen masks during the management of critically ill COVID-19 patients lead to an increase in the rate of opportunistic infections. So, patients need to fight both the virus with its different variants and opportunistic pathogens including bacteria and fungi especially patients with diabetes mellitus, malignancy, or those who undergo hemodialysis and receive deferoxamine. During the pandemic, many cases of Mucormycosis associated with COVID-19 infection were observed in many countries. In this review, we discuss risk factors that increase the chance of infection by opportunistic pathogens, especially fungal pathogens, recent challenges, and control measures.

Contact patterns of older adults with and without frailty in the Netherlands during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing measures were imposed to protect the population from exposure, especially older adults and people with frailty, who have the highest risk for severe outcomes. These restrictions greatly reduced contacts in the general population, but little was known about behaviour changes among older adults and people with frailty themselves. Our aim was to quantify how COVID-19 measures affected the contact behaviour of older adults and how this differed between older adults with and without frailty.

METHODS

In 2021, a contact survey was carried out among people aged 70 years and older in the Netherlands. A random sample of persons per age group (70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 85-89, and 90 +) and gender was invited to participate, either during a period with stringent (April 2021) or moderate (October 2021) measures. Participants provided general information on themselves, including their frailty, and they reported characteristics of all persons with whom they had face-to-face contact on a given day over the course of a full week.

RESULTS

In total, 720 community-dwelling older adults were included (overall response rate of 15%), who reported 16,505 contacts. During the survey period with moderate measures, participants without frailty had significantly more contacts outside their household than participants with frailty. Especially for females, frailty was a more informative predictor of the number of contacts than age. During the survey period with stringent measures, participants with and without frailty had significantly lower numbers of contacts compared to the survey period with moderate measures. The reduction of the number of contacts was largest for the eldest participants without frailty. As they interact mostly with adults of a similar high age who are likely frail, this reduction of the number of contacts indirectly protects older adults with frailty from SARS-CoV-2 exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study reveal that social distancing measures during the COVID-19 pandemic differentially affected the contact patterns of older adults with and without frailty. The reduction of contacts may have led to the direct protection of older adults in general but also to the indirect protection of older adults with frailty.

Contribution of plastic and microplastic to global climate change and their conjoining impacts on the environment - A review

Plastics are fossil fuel-derived products. The emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) during different processes involved in the lifecycle of plastic-related products are a significant threat to the environment as it contributes to global temperature rise. By 2050, a high volume of plastic production will be responsible for up to 13 % of our planet's total carbon budget. The global emissions of GHG and their persistence in the environment have depleted Earth's residual carbon resources and have generated an alarming feedback loop. Each year at least 8 million tonnes of discarded plastics are entering our oceans, creating concerns regarding plastic toxicity on marine biota as they end up in the food chain and ultimately affect human health. The unsuccessful management of plastic waste and its presence on the riverbanks, coastlines, and landscapes leads to the emission of a higher percentage of GHG in the atmosphere. The persistence of microplastics is also a significant threat to the fragile and extreme ecosystem containing diverse life forms with low genetic variation, making them vulnerable to climatic change. In this review, we have categorically discussed the contribution of plastic and plastic waste to global climate change covering the current plastic production and future trends, the types of plastics and plastic materials used globally, plastic lifecycle and GHG emission, and how microplastics become a major threat to ocean carbon sequestration and marine health. The conjoining impact of plastic pollution and climate change on the environment and human health has also been discussed in detail. In the end, we have also discussed some strategies to reduce the climate impact of plastics.

A multi-strain model with asymptomatic transmission: Application to COVID-19 in the US

COVID-19, induced by the SARS-CoV-2 infection, has caused an unprecedented pandemic in the world. New variants of the virus have emerged and dominated the virus population. In this paper, we develop a multi-strain model with asymptomatic transmission to study how the asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic infection influences the transmission between different strains and control strategies that aim to mitigate the pandemic. Both analytical and numerical results reveal that the competitive exclusion principle still holds for the model with the asymptomatic transmission. By fitting the model to the COVID-19 case and viral variant data in the US, we show that the omicron variants are more transmissible but less fatal than the previously circulating variants. The basic reproduction number for the omicron variants is estimated to be 11.15, larger than that for the previous variants. Using mask mandate as an example of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we show that implementing it before the prevalence peak can significantly lower and postpone the peak. The time of lifting the mask mandate can affect the emergence and frequency of subsequent waves. Lifting before the peak will result in an earlier and much higher subsequent wave. Caution should also be taken to lift the restriction when a large portion of the population remains susceptible. The methods and results obtained her e may be applied to the study of the dynamics of other infectious diseases with asymptomatic transmission using other control measures.

Assessing the mechanism for flood control: a case of plain river network cities under extreme rainfalls

In recent years, frequent floods hit Chinese cities and caused heavy casualties and property losses, making China faced with severe flood problems. In this study, Nanhai Future City in the IX Flood Control Area of Yancheng City, Jiangsu Province, was selected as the research area to simulate water-level changes under different control schemes meeting extreme rainfalls. MIKE model simulated the inundation with the designed storm of different return periods. The results showed that flooding inside the research area was severe. Higher drainage capacity of the pump stations with more engineering and non-engineering measures can reduce the adverse effect of extreme rainfall. The results provide a reference for planning future infrastructure and flood control decisions for Nanhai Future City and the surrounding areas.

SARS-CoV-2 elicits non-sterilizing immunity and evades vaccine-induced immunity: implications for future vaccination strategies

Neither vaccination nor natural infection result in long-lasting protection against SARS-COV-2 infection and transmission, but both reduce the risk of severe COVID-19. To generate insights into optimal vaccination strategies for prevention of severe COVID-19 in the population, we extended a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) mathematical model to compare the impact of vaccines that are highly protective against severe COVID-19 but not against infection and transmission, with those that block SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our analysis shows that vaccination strategies focusing on the prevention of severe COVID-19 are more effective than those focusing on creating of herd immunity. Key uncertainties that would affect the choice of vaccination strategies are: (1) the duration of protection against severe disease, (2) the protection against severe disease from variants that escape vaccine-induced immunity, (3) the incidence of long-COVID and level of protection provided by the vaccine, and (4) the rate of serious adverse events following vaccination, stratified by demographic variables.

The global dynamic transmissibility of COVID-19 and its influencing factors: an analysis of control measures from 176 countries

OBJECTIVE

To summarise the dynamic characteristics of COVID-19 transmissibility; To analyse and quantify the effect of control measures on controlling the transmissibility of COVID-19; To predict and compare the effectiveness of different control measures.

METHODS

We used the basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) to measure the transmissibility of COVID-19, the transmissibility of COVID-19 and control measures of 176 countries and regions from January 1, 2020 to May 14, 2022 were included in the study. The dynamic characteristics of COVID-19 transmissibility were summarised through descriptive research and a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model was constructed to quantify the effect of control measures on controlling the transmissibility of COVID-19.

RESULTS

The results show that the spatial transmissibility of COVID-19 is high in Asia, Europe and Africa, the temporal transmissibility of COVID-19 increases with the epidemic of Beta and Omicron strains. Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model shows that the transmissibility of COVID-19 is negatively correlated with control measures. Restricting population mobility has the strongest effect, nucleic acid testing (NAT) has a strong effect, and vaccination has the weakest effect.

CONCLUSION

Strict control measures are essential for controlling the COVID-19 outbreak; Restricting population mobility and nucleic acid testing (NAT) have significant impacts on controlling the COVID-19 transmissibility, while vaccination has no significant impact. In light of these findings, future control measures may include the widespread use of new NAT technology and the promotion of booster immunization.

Analysis of COVID-19 mathematical model for predicting the impact of control measures in Rwanda

This paper shows the impact of control measures on the predictive COVID-19 mathematical model in Rwanda through sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number R 0 . We have introduced different levels of the control measures in the model, precisely, 90%, 80%, 60%, 40%, 20%, 0% and studied their effects on the variation of the model variables. The results from numerical simulations reveal that the more the adherence to the control measures at the percentage of 90%, 80%, 60%, 40%, 20%, 0%, the more the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalized and deaths reduces which indicates the reduction of the spread of the pandemic in Rwanda. Moreover, It was shown that the transition rate from the infectious compartment is very sensitive to R 0 as the increase/decrease in its value increases/decreases the value of R 0 and this leads to the high spread or the containment of the pandemic respectively.

The methodologies to assess the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19: a systematic review

Non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as school closures and stay-at-home orders, have been implemented around the world to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Their effectiveness in improving health-related outcomes has been the subject of numerous empirical studies. However, these studies show fairly large variation among methodologies in use, reflecting the absence of an established methodological framework. On the one hand, variation in methodologies may be desirable to assess the robustness of results; on the other hand, a lack of common standards can impede comparability among studies. To establish a comprehensive overview over the methodologies in use, we conducted a systematic review of studies assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions between January 1, 2020 and January 12, 2021 (n = 248). We identified substantial variation in methodologies with respect to study setting, outcome, intervention, methodological approach, and effectiveness assessment. On this basis, we point to shortcomings of existing studies and make recommendations for the design of future studies.

Transmission and control of SARS-CoV-2 on ground public transport: A rapid review of the literature up to May 2021

BACKGROUND

During a pandemic, public transport is strategically important for keeping the country going and getting people where they need to be. The essential nature of public transport puts into focus the risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in this sector; rapid and diverse work has been done to attempt to understand how transmission happens in this context and what factors influence risk.

OBJECTIVES

This review aimed to provide a narrative overview of the literature assessing transmission, or potential for transmission, of SARS-CoV-2 on ground-based public transport, as well as studies assessing the effectiveness of control measures on public transport during the early part of the pandemic (up to May 2021).

METHODS

An electronic search was conducted using Web of Science, Ovid, the Cochrane Library, ProQuest, Pubmed, and the WHO global COVID database. Searches were run between December 2020 and May 2021.

RESULTS

The search strategy identified 734 papers, of which 28 papers met the inclusion criteria for the review; 10 papers assessed transmission of SARS-CoV-2, 11 assessed control measures, and seven assessed levels of contamination. Eleven papers were based on modelling approaches; 17 studies were original studies reporting empirical COVID-19 data.

CONCLUSIONS

The literature is heterogeneous, and there are challenges for measurement of transmission in this setting. There is evidence for transmission in certain cases, and mixed evidence for the presence of viral RNA in transport settings; there is also evidence for some reduction of risk through mitigation. However, the routes of transmission and key factors contributing to transmission of SARS-CoV-2 on public transport were not clear during the early stage of the pandemic. Gaps in understanding are discussed and six key questions for future research have been posed. Further exploration of transmission factors and effectiveness of mitigation strategies is required in order to support decision making.

The African swine fever modelling challenge: Model comparison and lessons learnt

Robust epidemiological knowledge and predictive modelling tools are needed to address challenging objectives, such as: understanding epidemic drivers; forecasting epidemics; and prioritising control measures. Often, multiple modelling approaches can be used during an epidemic to support effective decision making in a timely manner. Modelling challenges contribute to understanding the pros and cons of different approaches and to fostering technical dialogue between modellers. In this paper, we present the results of the first modelling challenge in animal health - the ASF Challenge - which focused on a synthetic epidemic of African swine fever (ASF) on an island. The modelling approaches proposed by five independent international teams were compared. We assessed their ability to predict temporal and spatial epidemic expansion at the interface between domestic pigs and wild boar, and to prioritise a limited number of alternative interventions. We also compared their qualitative and quantitative spatio-temporal predictions over the first two one-month projection phases of the challenge. Top-performing models in predicting the ASF epidemic differed according to the challenge phase, host species, and in predicting spatial or temporal dynamics. Ensemble models built using all team-predictions outperformed any individual model in at least one phase. The ASF Challenge demonstrated that accounting for the interface between livestock and wildlife is key to increasing our effectiveness in controlling emerging animal diseases, and contributed to improving the readiness of the scientific community to face future ASF epidemics. Finally, we discuss the lessons learnt from model comparison to guide decision making.

Characterization of air pollutant emissions from construction machinery in Beijing and evaluation of the effectiveness of control measures based on information code registration data

Non-road mobile machinery (NRMM), mainly construction machinery, has a high emission intensity of air pollutants, significantly impacting urban air quality. Most previous estimates of NRMM emissions have employed a top-down approach mainly based on estimates of energy consumption, leading to large uncertainties. This study uses the information code registration data specified in the latest regulations to establish a bottom-up method for emission accounting to more precisely identify the characteristics of air pollutant emissions from construction machinery in Beijing in 2020. Moreover, the study evaluates the effectiveness of the implementation of the corresponding control measures in conjunction with the current situation of pollution control of NRMM in Beijing. The results show the following: (1) Based on the information code registration data, there are 37,000-based fuel construction machines, with excavators accounting for the largest proportion (56%), loaders and forklifts also accounting for large proportions (19% and 15%, respectively), representing the main types of construction machinery. (2) Information code registration data better reflect the actual situation of construction machinery emissions than the top-down method; the emissions of the main air pollutants NOx, PM_2.5, and VOCs amount to 12,000 tons, 600 tons, and 1000 tons, respectively, which are overestimated to some extent by the top-down method. (3) Loaders and excavators have a large contribution to emissions, accounting for 80-91% of these three pollutants emissions; there is a large quantity of machinery classified into the China III standard, accounting for 64-68% of these pollutants emissions; the designation of low emission zones banning the use of high-emission machinery plays a positive role in pollution reduction, but high-emission machinery is still used in these regions, which requires further attention. (4) In the future, the scope of these regions banning high-emission machinery and the types of controlled machinery should be further expanded, and the supervision and enforcement should be strengthened, Furthermore, the structural adjustment and energy conservation of construction machinery should be promoted, and measures such as electrification should be implemented for part of the light construction machinery to continue to reduce pollutant emissions.

The African swine fever modelling challenge: Objectives, model description and synthetic data generation

African swine fever (ASF) is an emerging disease currently spreading at the interface between wild boar and pig farms in Europe and Asia. Current disease control regulations, which involve massive culling with significant economic and animal welfare costs, need to be improved. Modelling enables relevant control measures to be explored, but conducting the exercise during an epidemic is extremely difficult. Modelling challenges enhance modellers' ability to timely advice policy makers, improve their readiness when facing emerging threats, and promote international collaborations. The ASF-Challenge, which ran between August 2020 and January 2021, was the first modelling challenge in animal health. In this paper, we describe the objectives and rules of the challenge. We then demonstrate the mechanistic multi-host model that was used to mimic as accurately as possible an ASF-like epidemic, provide a detailed explanation of the surveillance and intervention strategies that generated the synthetic data, and describe the different management strategies that were assessed by the competing modelling teams. We then outline the different technical steps of the challenge as well as its environment. Finally, we synthesize the lessons we learnt along the way to guide future modelling challenges in animal health.

Response of aerosol composition to the clean air actions in Baoji city of Fen-Wei River Basin

The implementation of air pollution control measures could alter the compositions of submicron aerosols. Identifying the changes can evaluate the atmospheric responses of the implemented control measures and provide more scientific basis for the formulation of new measures. The Fen-Wei River Basin is the most air polluted region in China, and thereby is a key area for the reduction of emissions. Only limited studies determine the changes in the chemical compositions of submicron aerosols. In this study, Baoji was selected as a representative city in the Fen-Wei River Basin. The compositions of submicron aerosols were determined between 2014 and 2019. Organic fractions were determined through an online instrument (Quadrupole Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor, Q-ACSM) and source recognition was performed by the Multilinear Engine (ME-2). The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) was also employed to evaluate the contributions of emissions reduction and meteorological conditions to the changes of submicron aerosol compositions. The results indicate that the mass concentrations of submicron aerosols have been substantially decreased after implementation of air pollution control measures. This was mainly attributed to the emission reductions of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and primary organic aerosol (POA). In addition, the main components that drove the pollution episodes swapped from POA, sulfate, nitrate and less-oxidized organic (LO-OOA) in 2014 to nitrate and more-oxidized OOA (MO-OOA) in 2019. Due to the changes of chemical compositions of both precursors and secondary pollutants, the pollution control measures should be modernized to focus on the emissions of ammonia (NH₃), nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and volatile organic compounds (VOC_s) in this region.

[Omicron Variant of SARS-CoV-2 and Its Potential Impact on Dental Practice]

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been raging across the world for over two years, but the daily reported numbers of new infections and deaths are still increasing. The newly identified Omicron variant has significant changes in its transmissibility and pathogenicity due to the multiple mutations in the spike protein, posing new challenges to the global public health. World Health Organization has categorized Omicron as a variant of concern (VOC). The spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants has caused disruptions to the dental practice worldwide. During the course of diagnosis and treatment of dental care, face-to-face communication at close quarters, droplets, aerosols, and exposure to saliva and blood increase the risks of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The emergence of new variants, especially the Omicron variant, has formed new challenges to dental healthcare provision. In addition, oral tissues, including the tongue and oral mucosa, can overexpress the angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), which is also the binding receptors of SARS-CoV-2. As a result, the oral cavity is one of the target sites of SARS-CoV-2 infection. SARS-CoV-2 infection in oral cavity may cause different oral complications, such as loss of taste. However, there are few reports about Omicron and the other variants of SARS-CoV-2 and their impacts on dental healthcare provision. Herein we made an overview of the Omicron variant and its characteristics, including its pathogenicity and immune evasion, and its potential impact on dental practice. We also proposed some control measures with the aim of reducing the possible transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants during dental care.

Associations of infection control measures and norovirus outbreak outcomes in healthcare settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Although most norovirus outbreaks in high-income countries occur in healthcare facilities, information on associations between control measures and outbreak outcomes in these settings is lacking.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review/meta-analysis to assess associations between norovirus outbreak control measures and outcomes in hospitals and long-term care facilities (LTCFs), globally. Using regression analyses stratified by setting (hospital/LTCF), we compared durations, attack rates, and case counts for outbreaks in which control measures were reportedly implemented to those in which they were not.

RESULTS

We identified 102 papers describing 162 norovirus outbreaks. Control measures were reportedly implemented in 118 (73%) outbreaks and were associated with 0.6 (95% CI: 0.3-1.1) times smaller patient case counts and 0.7 (95% CI: 0.4, 1.0) times shorter durations in hospitals but 1.5 (95% CI: 1.1-2.2), 1.5 (95% CI: 1.0-2.1) and 1.6 (95% CI: 1.0-2.6) times larger overall, resident and staff case counts, respectively, and 1.4 (95% CI: 1.0-2.0) times longer durations in LTCFs.

CONCLUSIONS

Reported implementation of control measures was associated with smaller/shorter outbreaks in hospitals but larger/longer outbreaks in LTCFs. Control measures were likely implemented in response to larger/longer outbreaks in LTCFs, rather than causing them. Prospective observational or intervention studies are needed to determine effectiveness.

Modeling the epidemic control measures in overcoming COVID-19 outbreaks: A fractional-order derivative approach

Novel coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2 is one of the global threads and uncertain challenges worldwide faced at present. It has stroke rapidly around the globe due to viral transmissibility, new variants (strains), and human unconsciousness. Lack of adequate and reliable vaccination and proper treatment, control measures such as self-protection, physical distancing, lockdown, quarantine, and isolation policy plays an essential role in controlling and reducing the pandemic. Decisions on enforcing various control measures should be determined based on a theoretical framework and real-data evidence. We deliberate a general mathematical control measures epidemic model consisting of lockdown, self-protection, physical distancing, quarantine, and isolation compartments. Then, we investigate the proposed model through Caputo fractional order derivative. Fixed point theory has been used to analyze the Caputo fractional-order derivative model's existence and uniqueness solutions, whereas the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton numerical scheme was applied for numerical simulation. Driven by extensive theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, this work further illuminates the substantial impact of various control measures.

Recent development in evaluation methods, influencing factors and control measures for freeze denaturation of food protein

Frozen storage is most widely adopted preservation method to maintain food freshness and nutritional attributes. However, at low temperature, food is prone to chemical changes such as protein denaturation and lipid oxidation. In this review, we discussed the reasons and influencing factors that cause protein denaturation during freezing, such as freezing rate, freezing temperature, freezing method, etc. From the previous literatures, it was found that frozen storage is commonly used to prevent freeze induced protein denaturation by adding cryoprotectants to food. Some widely used cryoprotectants (for example, sucrose and sorbitol) have been reported with higher sweetness and weaker cryoprotective abilities. Therefore, this article comprehensively discusses the new cryopreservation methods and providing comparative study to the conventional frozen storage. Meanwhile, this article sheds light on the freeze induced alterations, such as change in functional and gelling properties. In addition, this article could be helpful for the prolonged frozen storage of food with minimum quality related changes. Meanwhile, it could also improve the commercial values and consumer satisfaction of frozen food as well.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on human salmonellosis in the Netherlands

The public health measures implemented to control coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may influence also other infectious diseases. Using national laboratory surveillance data, we assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on human salmonellosis in the Netherlands until March 2021. Salmonellosis incidence decreased significantly after March 2020: in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2020, and in the first quarter of 2021, the incidence decreased by 55%, 57%, 47% and 37%, respectively, compared to the same quarters of 2016-2019. The decrease was strongest among travel-related cases (94%, 84%, 79% and 93% in the aforementioned quarters, respectively). Other significant changes were: increased proportion of cases among older adults and increased proportion of invasive infections, decreased proportion of trimethoprim resistance and increased proportion of serovar Typhimurium monophasic variant vs. Enteritidis. This led to decreased contributions of laying hens and increased contributions of pigs and cattle as sources of human infections. The observed changes probably reflect a combination of reduced exposure to Salmonella due to restrictions on international travels and gatherings, closure of dine-in restaurants, catering and hospitality sectors at large and changes in healthcare-seeking and diagnostic behaviours.

Research on adaptive transmission and controls of COVID-19 on the basis of a complex network

COVID-19 has caused massive disruption on the global economy and presents a considerable risk to human lives. Some countries have successfully controlled the pandemic by adopting strict measures, such as lockdown and travel restriction, but such methods are difficult to be applied widely due to their huge costs. To explore available and low-cost solutions, this study proposes an adaptive transmission model on the basis of a complex network, and gives control simulation method of COVID-19. The suggested model considers adaptive changes such as travel network and people's travel intention to form a three-level adaptive network transmission model among cities, communities, and people. The improved susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-dead transmission process is integrated into the network. Simulation experiments under high-, low-, and conventional-cost controls are performed. In these experiments, the travel restriction and closing cities are considered, and sensitivity analyses of the parameters are conducted to explore low-cost measures. Meanwhile, time duration and application conditions of different controls are discussed. Results show that lockdown is the most effective way, and the contact and infection rates are the two most important factors to control the pandemic. Low-cost combined control measures are feasible and effective for most countries. Finally, several suggestions are given for national and urban preventions and controls of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases in the future.

The existence, spread, and strategies for environmental monitoring and control of SARS-CoV-2 in environmental media

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the most influential infectious disease to emerge in the early 21st century. The outbreak of COVID-19 has caused a great many deaths and has had a negative impact on the world's economic development. The etiological agent of COVID-19 is severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). SARS-CoV-2, which is highly infectious and variable, can be transmitted through different environmental media (gaseous, liquid, and solid). There are many unanswered questions surrounding this virus. This review summarizes the current knowledge on the latest global COVID-19 epidemic situation, SARS-CoV-2 variants, the progress in SARS-CoV-2 vaccine use, and the existence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in gaseous, liquid, and solid media, with particular emphasis on the prevention and control of further spread of the disease. This review aims to help people worldwide to become more familiar with the transmission characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 in environmental media, so as targeted measures to fight the epidemic, reduce deaths, and restore the economy can be implemented under the pressure of global SARS-CoV-2 vaccine shortages.

Effectiveness of integrated Aedes albopictus management in southern Switzerland

BACKGROUND

The exotic invasive tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, appeared in southern Switzerland in 2003. The spread of the mosquito has been surveyed constantly since then, and an integrated vector management (IVM) has been implemented to control its numbers. The control measures focus on the aquatic phase of the mosquito with removal of breeding sites and applications of larvicides in public areas whereas private areas are reached through extensive public information campaigns. Here, we evaluated the efficacy of the IVM.

METHODS

Since all the municipalities with Ae. albopictus in southern Switzerland are currently implementing the IVM, Italian municipalities just across the Swiss-Italian border, where Ae. albopictus is present but no coordinated intervention programme is in place, served as control. Ovitraps and adult female traps were used to measure mosquito abundance in 2019. Generalised mixed-effects models were used to model the numbers of Ae. albopictus eggs and adult females collected. These numbers of Ae. albopictus eggs were compared to the numbers of eggs collected in 2012 and 2013 in a previous assessment of the IVM, using a hurdle model.

RESULTS

Mean numbers of Ae. albopictus eggs and adult females in 2019 were consistently higher in the municipalities not following an IVM programme. In these municipalities, there were about four times (3.8) more eggs than in the municipalities implementing an IVM programme. Also, the numbers of eggs and adult females increased steadily from the beginning of the Ae. albopictus reproductive season, reaching a peak in August. In contrast, the increase in numbers of Ae. albopictus was much more contained in the municipalities implementing an IVM programme, without reaching an evident peak. Comparison with data from 2012 and 2013 indicates that the gap between intervention and non-intervention areas may have almost doubled in the past 6 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the survey strongly support the efficacy of the IVM programme implemented in southern Switzerland compared to municipalities without defined control measures. With the constant implementation of an IVM, it appears possible to contain the numbers of Ae. albopictus at a manageable level, reducing the nuisance for the human population and the risk of arbovirus epidemics.

Saliva detection of SARS-CoV-2 for mitigating company outbreaks: a surveillance experience, Milan, Italy, March 2021

Monitoring the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) community-wide transmission with a suitable and effective sampling method would be of great support for public health response to the spreading due to asymptomatic subjects in the community.Here, we describe how using saliva samples for SARS-CoV-2 detection has allowed for a weekly surveillance of a small business company and the early detection of coronavirus disease 2019 cases.As on 23rd March, two cases were detected and investigated, and control measures were rapidly applied.

Modeling the life cycle of the spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) with management implications

The spotted lanternfly (SLF) is an invasive pest that emerged in the US less than a decade ago. With few natural enemies and an ability to feed on a wide variety of readily available plants the population has grown rapidly. It is causing damage to a wide range of natural and economically important farmed plants and at present there is no known way to stop the growth and spread of the population. However, a number of control measures have been proposed to limit the growth and the effectiveness of some of these have been assessed via empirical studies. Studies to estimate the natural mortality rate of the lanternfly's different life stages and other properties of its life cycle are also available. However, no attempt to integrate this empirical information to estimate population level characteristics such as the population growth rate and the potential effects of proposed control measures can be found in the literature. Here, we introduce a simple population dynamics model parameterized using available information in the literature to obtain estimates of this type. Our model suggests that the annual growth rate of the SLF population in the US is 5.47, that only three out of six proposed control measures considered here have the potential to decrease the population even if we can find and treat each SLF in every stage, and that even with a combined strategy involving the most effective proposed control measures about 35% of all SLF in the relevant stages must be found and treated to turn the current population growth into decline. Suggesting that eradication of the spotted lanternfly over larger geographical areas in the US will be challenging, and we believe that the modeling framework presented here may be useful in providing estimates to inform feasibility assessment of proposed management efforts.

A review of strategies for mitigating roadside air pollution in urban street canyons

Urban street canyons formed by high-rise buildings restrict the dispersion of vehicle emissions, which pose severe health risks to the public by aggravating roadside air quality. However, this issue is often overlooked in city planning. This paper reviews the mechanisms controlling vehicle emission dispersion in urban street canyons and the strategies for managing roadside air pollution. Studies have shown that air pollution hotspots are not all attributed to heavy traffic and proper urban design can mitigate air pollution. The key factors include traffic conditions, canyon geometry, weather conditions and chemical reactions. Two categories of mitigation strategies are identified, namely traffic interventions and city planning. Popular traffic interventions for street canyons include low emission zones and congestion charges which can moderately improve roadside air quality. In comparison, city planning in terms of building geometry can significantly promote pollutant dispersion in street canyons. General design guidelines, such as lower canyon aspect ratio, alignment between streets and prevailing winds, non-uniform building heights and ground-level building porosity, may be encompassed in new development. Concurrently, in-street barriers are widely applicable to rectify the poor roadside air quality in existing street canyons. They are broadly classified into porous (e.g. trees and hedges) and solid (e.g. kerbside parked cars, noise fences and viaducts) barriers that utilize their aerodynamic advantages to ease roadside air pollution. Post-evaluations are needed to review these strategies by real-world field experiments and more detailed modelling in the practical perspective.

Impact of socioeconomic status，population mobility and control measures on COVID-10 development in major cities of China

:To evaluate the impact of socioeconomic status，population mobility，prevention and control measures on the early-stage coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) development in major cities of China. : The rate of daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases in the 51 cities with the largest number of cumulative confirmed cases as of February 19，2020 (except those in Hubei province) were collected and analyzed using the time series cluster analysis. It was then assessed according to three aspects，that is, socioeconomic status，population mobility，and control measures for the pandemic. : According to the analysis on the 51 cities，4 development patterns of COVID-19 were obtained，including a high-incidence pattern (in Xinyu)，a late high-incidence pattern (in Ganzi)，a moderate incidence pattern (in Wenzhou and other 12 cities)，and a low and stable incidence pattern (in Hangzhou and other 35 cities). Cities with different types and within the same type both had different scores on the three aspects. : There were relatively large difference on the COVID-19 development among different cities in China，possibly affected by socioeconomic status，population mobility and prevention and control measures that were taken. Therefore，a timely public health emergency response and travel restriction measures inside the city can interfere the development of the pandemic. Population flow from high risk area can largely affect the number of cumulative confirmed cases.

Prevention and control measures significantly curbed the SARS-CoV-2 and influenza epidemics in China

At the end of 2019, an outbreak of pneumonia took place caused by a new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 virus), named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A series of strict prevention and control measures were then implemented to reduce the spread of the epidemic. Influenza, another respiratory tract virus, may also respond to these measures. To assess the impact of these measures, we used the total number of passengers movement in mainland China from 2018 to 2020 and daily number of railway passenger flow during the 2020 Spring Festival travel rush to reflect the population movement and to analyze newly and cumulatively confirmed COVID-19 and influenza cases. We found that implementing the series of measures against COVID-19 mitigated both COVID-19 and influenza epidemics in China. Prevention and control measures for COVID-19 might be used to control respiratory tract infections to reduce the national health economic burden caused by these pathogens.

Food-trade-associated COVID-19 outbreak from a contaminated wholesale food supermarket in Beijing

The re-emerging outbreak of COVID-19 in Beijing, China, in the summer of 2020 originated from a SARS-CoV-2-infested wholesale food supermarket. We postulated that the Xinfadi market outbreak has links with food-trade activities. Our Susceptible to the disease, Infectious, and Recovered coupled Agent Based Modelling (SIR-ABM) analysis for studying the diffusion of SARS-CoV-2 particles suggested that the trade-distancing strategy effectively reduces the reproduction number (R0). The retail shop closure strategy reduced the number of visitors to the market by nearly half. In addition, the buy-local policy option reduced the infection by more than 70% in total. Therefore, retail closures and buy-local policies could serve as significantly effective strategies that have the potential to reduce the size of the outbreak and prevent probable outbreaks in the future.

Occupational health risk among healthcare workers during COVID-19 pandemic: actions to limit the risk

The World Health Organization declared coronavirus infection 2019 (COVID-19) as a pandemic in March 2020. The infection with coronavirus started in Wuhan city, China, in December 2019. As of October 2020, the disease was reported in 235 countries. The coronavirus infection 2019 (COVID-19) is a disease with high morbidity and mortality. As of February 2021, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally is 102,942,987 and 2,232,233 deaths according to WHO report. This infection is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), which is a ribonucleic acid (RNA) β-coronavirus. The infection is mainly transmitted through respiratory droplets.

Healthcare workers (HCWs) play an essential role at the front lines, providing care for patients infected with this highly transmittable disease. They are exposed to very high occupational health risk as they frequently contact the infective persons. In order to limit the number of infected cases and deaths among healthcare workers, it is crucial to have better awareness, optimistic attitude, efficient PPE, and adequate health practices about COVID-19.

Case fatality rates of COVID-19 across the globe: are the current draconian measures justified?

Aim

The current study assessed the case fatality rate (CFR) across different income level countries of the world, and the virulence pattern of COVID-19, against the backdrop of panic and uncertainty faced by many governments, who are trying to impose draconian containment measures to control the outbreak. Subjects and Methods: Data on confirmed cases and number of deaths due to coronavirus infection were retrieved from the WHO as on 30 March 2020, and examined for the various income level countries, per the World Bank criteria. The CFR was calculated country-wise and estimated for the various groups such as low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high-income, and the data was analyzed.

Results

The overall CFR for the high income countries was 5.0%, compared with a CFR of 2.8% for low-income countries. The upper-middle-income countries showed a CFR of 4.3%, while the lower-middle-income countries stood at 3.7%. The results from our study predict that the maximum CFR in high-income countries will be contained at approximately 5% (95% CI). The CFR for the low, lower-middle, and upper-middle-income countries will range between 2.8 and 4.3% (95% CI).

Conclusion

COVID-19, irrespective of its transmissibility, produces a lower CFR compared with that of SARS-Cov and MERS-Cov, although COVID-19 has infected eight times more countries than MERS-Cov and SARS-Cov, and caused a higher number of deaths. The nation-wide lockdown measures to prevent the spread of the virus may be reconsidered, given the hardships for the population and their impact on the economic system.

The first wave of COVID-19 in hospital staff members of a tertiary care hospital in the greater Paris area: A surveillance and risk factors study

Introduction

Understanding how hospital staff members (HSMs), including healthcare workers, acquired severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during the first wave can guide the control measures in the current second wave in Europe.

Methods

From March 5 to May 10, 2020, the Raymond-Poincaré Hospital held a weekday consultation for HSMs for PCR testing. HSMs were requested to complete a questionnaire on their potential exposure to SARS-CoV-2.

Results

Of 200 HSMs screened, 70 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Ninety-nine HSMs completed the questionnaire of whom 28 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. In the multivariable analysis, age of ≥44 years (aOR = 5.2, 95% CI [1.4–22.5]) and not systematically using a facemask when caring for a patient (aOR = 13.9, 95% CI [1.8–293.0]) were significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Working in a COVID-19-dedicated ward (aOR = 0.7, 95% CI [0.2–3.2]) was not significantly associated with infection. Community-related exposure in and outside the hospital, hospital meetings without facemasks (aOR = 21.3, 95% CI [4.5–143.9]) and private gatherings (aOR = 10, 95% CI [1.3–91.0]) were significantly associated with infection.

Conclusions

Our results support the effectiveness of barrier precautions and highlight in-hospital infections not related to patient care and infections related to exposure in the community. Protecting HSMs against COVID-19 is crucial in fighting the second wave of the epidemic.

Combined effects of increased O3 and reduced NO2 concentrations on short-term air pollution health risks in Hong Kong

The reduction of NO_x emissions in a VOC-limited region can lead to an increase of the local O₃ concentration. An evaluation of the net health effects of such pollutant changes is therefore important to ascertain whether the emission control measures effectively improve the overall protection of public health. In this study, we use a short-term health risk (added health risk or AR) model developed for the multi-pollutant air quality health index (AQHI) in Hong Kong to examine the overall health impacts of these pollutant changes. We first investigate AR changes associated with NO₂ and O₃ changes, followed by those associated with changes in all four AQHI pollutants (NO₂, O₃, SO₂, and particulate matter (PM)). Our results show that for the combined health effects of NO₂ and O₃ changes, there is a significant reduction in AR in urban areas with dense traffic, but no statistically significant changes in other less urbanized areas. The increase in estimated AR for higher O₃ concentrations is offset by a decrease in the estimated AR for lower NO₂ concentrations. In areas with dense traffic, the reduction in AR as a result of decreased NO₂ is substantially larger than the increase in AR associated with increased O₃. When additionally accounting for the change in ambient SO₂ and PM, we found a statistically significant reduction in total AR everywhere in Hong Kong. Our results show that the emission control measures resulting in NO₂, SO₂, and PM reductions over the past decade have effectively reduced the AR over Hong Kong, even though these control measures may have partially contributed to an increase in O₃ concentrations. Hence, efforts to reduce NOx, SO₂, and PM should be continued.

Modeling and prediction of COVID-19 spread in the Philippines by October 13, 2020, by using the VARMAX time series method with preventive measures

COVID-19 outbreak is the serious public health challenge the world is facing in recent days as there is no effective vaccine and treatment for this virus. It causes 257,863 confirmed cases as of September 13, 2020, with 4292 deaths in the Philippines up till now. Understanding the transmission dynamics of the infection is a crucial step for evaluating the effectiveness of control measures. Owing to this, forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, cases per million, and deaths per million are necessary for the Philippines. We examine the characteristics of COVID-19 affected populations based on the data provided by WHO from December 31, 2019, to September 13, 2020. In this paper, forecasts, and analysis of the COVID-19 cases, deaths, cases per million, and deaths per million were presented for 30 days ahead. The projection results are compared with the actual data values and simulated results from the VARMAX time series method. Societal growth is assessed by the median growth rate (MGR). President Rodrigo R Duterte of the Philippines has taken good steps but much more needs to be done. We suggest Philippines governments must rapidly mobilize and make good policy decisions to mitigate the COVID-19 spread. This paper mentions major contributions, current concerns, and challenges during and post COVID-19 epidemic in the Philippines with few non-considered measures to reduce the spread of the COVID-19.

Scientific Opinion on the assessment of the control measures of the category A diseases of Animal Health Law: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

EFSA received a mandate from the European Commission to assess the effectiveness of some of the control measures against diseases included in the Category A list according to Regulation (EU) 2016/429 on transmissible animal diseases ('Animal Health Law'). This opinion belongs to a series of opinions where these control measures will be assessed, with this opinion covering the assessment of control measures for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). In this opinion, EFSA and the AHAW Panel of experts review the effectiveness of: (i) clinical and laboratory sampling procedures, (ii) monitoring period and (iii) the minimum radius of the protection and surveillance zone, and the minimum length of time the measures should be applied in these zones. The general methodology used for this series of opinions has been published elsewhere; nonetheless, specific details of the model used for the assessment of the laboratory sampling procedures for HPAI are presented here. Here, also, the transmission kernels used for the assessment of the minimum radius of the protection and surveillance zones are shown. Several scenarios for which these control measures had to be assessed were designed and agreed prior to the start of the assessment. In summary, sampling procedures as described in the diagnostic manual for HPAI were considered efficient for gallinaceous poultry, whereas additional sampling is advised for Anseriformes. The monitoring period was assessed as effective, and it was demonstrated that the surveillance zone comprises 95% of the infections from an affected establishment. Recommendations provided for each of the scenarios assessed aim to support the European Commission in the drafting of further pieces of legislation, as well as for plausible ad hoc requests in relation to HPAI.

The Impact of Control Measures and Holiday Seasons on Incidence and Mortality Rate of COVID-19 in Iran

BACKGROUND

Preventive measures on the COVID-19 pandemic is an effective way to control its spread. We aimed to investigate the effect of control measures and holiday seasons on the incidence and mortality rate of COVID-19 in Iran.

STUDY DESIGN

An observational study.

METHODS

The daily data of confirmed new cases and deaths in Iran were taken from the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 database. We calculated weekly data from 19 Feb to 6 Oct 2020. To estimate the impact of control measures and holiday seasons on the incidence rate of new cases and deaths, an autoregressive hidden Markov model (ARHMM) with two hidden states fitted the data. The hidden states of the fitted model can distinguish the peak period from the non-peak period.

RESULTS

The control measures with a delay of one-week and two-week had a decreasing effect on the new cases in the peak and non-peak periods, respectively (P=0.005). The holiday season with a two-week delay increased the total number of new cases in the peak periods (P=0.031). The peak period for the occurrence of COVID-19 was estimated at 3 weeks. In the peak period of mortality, the control measures with a three-week delay decreased the COVID-19 mortality (P=0.010). The expected duration of staying in the peak period of mortality was around 6 weeks.

CONCLUSION

When an increasing trend was seen in the country, the control measures could decline the incidence and mortality related to COVID-19. Implementation of official restrictions on holiday seasons could prevent an upward trend of incidence for COVID-19 during the peak period.

Hunters' view on the control of African swine fever in wild boar. A participatory study in Latvia

African swine fever (ASF) has massively spread in recent years and threatens the global pig industry. ASF has been present in Latvia since 2014. Hunters play a major role in the implementation of measures to control ASF and in passive disease surveillance. The probability to detect an ASF-positive wild boar is much higher in animals found dead than in hunted animals. Thus, the willingness and the motivation of hunters to support passive surveillance is of utmost importance. Using participatory methods, this study aimed to assess the acceptability of control measures for ASF in wild boar among hunters. In addition, new approaches to increase hunters' motivation to report wild boar found dead were investigated. A total of ten focus group discussions with hunters from different regions in Latvia were conducted. To assess the quantity and quality of contacts between hunters and stakeholders involved in the control of ASF, relation diagrams were used. Using ranking tools, the trust of the participants in stakeholders to implement control measures successfully was evaluated. Defined control measures were presented to the hunters and their acceptability investigated. An impact diagram and a list of defined motivation options for passive surveillance were offered to identify new ways to increase the willingness of hunters to support passive surveillance actively. A satisfactory and regular relationship was identified between the hunters, the Food and Veterinary Service (FVS) and the State Forest Service (SFS). The hunters' trust in these authorities was high. Although there is no vaccine against ASF, hunters were convinced of the potential of vaccination in controlling ASF. However, building fences was considered as useless and ineffective. To increase the willingness of hunters to support passive surveillance, reducing the infection pressure in the forests was regarded as most motivating. Furthermore, hunters would appreciate a decrease in their costs and workload. The study provides new insight into the concerns and experiences of hunters. Including their views and expectations in the further design and implementation of control and surveillance activities may help to improve current efforts to control ASF in wild boar populations. Although representing the perceptions of Latvian hunters, the main conclusions may be adaptable to adjust ASF control and surveillance in other countries.

Intermittent occupancy combined with ventilation: An efficient strategy for the reduction of airborne transmission indoors

It is important that efficient measures to reduce the airborne transmission of respiratory infectious diseases (including COVID-19) should be formulated as soon as possible to ensure a safe easing of lockdown. Ventilation has been widely recognized as an efficient engineering control measure for airborne transmission. Room ventilation with an increased supply of clean outdoor air could dilute the expiratory airborne aerosols to a lower concentration level. However, sufficient increase is beyond the capacity of most of the existing mechanical ventilation systems that were designed to be energy efficient under non-pandemic conditions. We propose an improved control strategy based on source control, which would be achieved by implementing intermittent breaks in room occupancy, specifically that all occupants should leave the room periodically and the room occupancy time should be reduced as much as possible. Under the assumption of good mixing of clean outdoor supply air with room air, the evolution of the concentration in the room of aerosols exhaled by infected person(s) is predicted. The risk of airborne cross-infection is then evaluated by calculating the time-averaged intake fraction. The effectiveness of the strategy is demonstrated for a case study of a typical classroom. This strategy, together with other control measures such as continuous supply of maximum clean air, distancing, face-to-back layout of workstations and reducing activities that increase aerosol generation (e.g., loudly talking and singing), is applicable in classrooms, offices, meeting rooms, conference rooms, etc.

Balantioides coli

Balantioides coli (=Balantidium coli) is the only ciliate that parasitizes humans. Pigs are the main reservoir. Other species, as camels, cattle, donkey, sheep and goat have been also proposed as reservoirs for human infections. The parasite has a direct life cycle, being transmitted by the faecal-oral route. This type of cycle and the large number of host species imply an important potential for zoonotic transmission of the parasite. Infections are most commonly found in tropical and temperate regions, with prevalence up to 100% in pigs; high prevalence values have been also recorded in some non-human primates and camels. In humans, prevalence is usually under 10% in the population at risk. The main epidemiological factors involved in the transmission of this parasite include close contact with pigs, lack of basic sanitation infrastructures (water supply, wastewater disposal) and hygiene. Individual health status, intestinal microbiota and diet are also important for the onset of the infection. Outbreaks caused by this parasite are rare; those reported to date were related to poor hygienic conditions or to catastrophic natural disasters. Balantioides coli infections can be asymptomatic and symptomatic, which can be chronic (with intermittent diarrhoea), or acute (a dysenteric form which can be life-threatening). Efective treatments include tetracycline, iodoquinol and 5-nitroimidazole compounds (metronidazole, secnidazole). The main effective individual preventive measure is the use of disinfected water for drinking and other uses. Adequate water supply infrastructures, proper disposal of wastewater and animal faeces, and regular monitoring programs on farms will help limit transmission.

Controlling urban traffic-one of the useful methods to ensure safety in Wuhan based on COVID-19 outbreak

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, China. As of March 9, 2020, this epidemic has occurred in 102 countries and caused 3584 deaths with global serious concern. To cope with the outbreak, Chinese governments have strictly controlled urban traffic at all levels, especially in Wuhan. This article firstly reviews the urban traffic situation from January 23, 2020 to March 8, 2020, including safety problems of urban public transportation, traffic control methods, and emergency public transportation planning. Based on this, we present some emergency traffic control measures that are very urgent in the early stage of epidemic. Between cities, we strongly recommend blocking and controlling the flow of traffic in the early stage of epidemic. Inside a city, it is imperative to suspend the public transports, block all roads, restrict private cars, and close bridges and tunnels. Material isolation transfer stations are suggested to be established. A number of public transports should be organized to ensure transport of medical workers, patients, and daily necessities. We also give suggestions about the long-term planning and improvement methods. Considering the great success China has achieved in fighting COVID-19, we believe that this article offers a valuable reference of urban traffic control.

Short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic: a study case of Cameroon

In this paper, an Ensemble of Kalman filter (EnKf) approach is developed to estimate unmeasurable state variables and unknown parameters in a COVID-19 model. We first formulate a mathematical model for the dynamic transmission of COVID-19 that takes into account the circulation of free coronaviruses in the environment. We provide the basic properties of the model and compute the basic reproduction number R 0 that plays an important role in the outcome of the disease. After, assuming continuous measurement of newly COVID-19 reported cases, deceased and recovered individuals, the EnKf approach is used to estimate the unmeasured variables and unknown COVID-19 transmission rates using real data of the current COVID-19 pandemic in Cameroon. We present the forecasts of the current pandemic in Cameroon and explore the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as mass media-based sensitization, social distancing, face-mask wearing, contact tracing and the desinfection and decontamination of infected places by using suitable products against free coronaviruses in the environment in order to reduce the spread of the disease. Through numerical simulations, we find that at that time (i)R 0 ≈ 2.9495 meaning that the disease will not die out without any control measures, (ii) the infection from COVID-19 infected cases is more important than the infection from free coronaviruses in the environment, (iii) the number of new COVID-19 cases will still increase and there is a necessity to increase timely the surveillance by using contact tracing and sensibilisation of the population to respect social distancing, face-masks wearing through awareness programs and (iv) the eradication of the pandemic is highly dependent on the control measures taken by governments.

Foodborne transmission of Toxoplasma gondii infection in the last decade. An overview

Toxoplasmosis is a zoonotic disease of global distribution and importance. It is caused by the protozoan parasite Toxoplasma gondii, the only species in the Toxoplasma genus. This parasite can infect most warm-blooded animals, including humans and livestock. Main routes of transmission are by ingestion of tissue cysts in raw or undercooked meat of infected animals, ingestion of raw vegetables or water contaminated with T. gondii oocysts from cat feces, and transplacental. Around one-third of human beings are chronically infected with T. gondii. Most infections appear to be asymptomatic in immunocompetent persons, but toxoplasmosis can be fatal to the fetus and immunocompromised adults. Water and foodborne outbreaks have been caused by this parasite worldwide, but few are well documented. Importantly, T. gondii is a parasite of high importance in animal health, causing reproductive failure, particularly in small ruminants, and clinical toxoplasmosis in many species. This overview discusses the knowledge of T. gondii infections in the last decade focusing on the foodborne transmission of this parasite.

The effect of control measures on COVID-19 transmission in Italy: Comparison with Guangdong province in China

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has spread all around the world. Italy is one of the worst affected countries in Europe. Although there is a trend of relief, the epidemic situation hasn't stabilized yet. This study aims to investigate the dynamics of the disease spread in Italy and provide some suggestions on containing the epidemic.

METHODS

We compared Italy's status at the outbreak stage and control measures with Guangdong Province in China by data observation and analysis. A modified autonomous SEIR model was used to study the COVID-19 epidemic and transmission potential during the early stage of the outbreak in Italy. We also utilized a time-dependent dynamic model to study the future disease dynamics in Italy. The impact of various non-pharmaceutical control measures on epidemic was investigated through uncertainty and sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

The comparison of specific measures implemented in the two places and the time when the measures were initiated shows that the initial prevention and control actions in Italy were not sufficiently timely and effective. We estimated parameter values based on available cumulative data and calculated the basic reproduction number to be 4.32 before the national lockdown in Italy. Based on the estimated parameter values, we performed numerical simulations to predict the epidemic trend and evaluate the impact of contact limitation, detection and diagnosis, and individual behavior change due to media coverage on the epidemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Italy was in a severe epidemic status and the control measures were not sufficiently timely and effective in the beginning. Non-pharmaceutical interventions, including contact restrictions and improvement of case recognition, play an important role in containing the COVID-19 epidemic. The effect of individual behavior changes due to media update of the outbreak cannot be ignored. For policy-makers, early and strict blockade measures, fast detection and improving media publicity are key to containing the epidemic.

Research progress in sources, analytical methods, eco-environmental effects, and control measures of microplastics

Microplastics are plastic particles which are widely distributed in the environment. The pollution of microplastics in environment have attracted increasing attention in recent years. This paper reviews research progress in sources, analytical methods, eco-environmental effects and control in environment, and suggests relevant countermeasures in governance and research. Microplastics mainly originate from two sources: firstly, a significant direct input of primary microplastics; second, secondary microplastics generate from the fragmentations of larger plastic materials. The analysis and identification of microplastics are critical to other researches, and related instrument methods have also been applied to the analysis and identification of microplastics. The advantages and disadvantages of microplastics analytical methods were reviewed. The eco-environmental effects of microplastics can be divided into four aspects: adsorption, biological uptake, ecotoxicological and combined pollution. Control measures need to strengthen the systematic research of microplastics pollution control and management technology system from the aspects of organizational cooperation, technological research and development, laws and regulations. In the future, a unified quantitative analysis method for microplastics should be established, and more accurate traceability analysis techniques should be developed to further explore its environmental behavior and fate. To strengthen scientific research on microplastic pollution in terrestrial, freshwater and atmospheric environments, and develop more scientific and rational control policies. This paper aims to provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of microplastics pollution, and also provides insights for the next step of research.