VERSO: A comprehensive framework for the inference of robust phylogenies and the quantification of intra-host genomic diversity of viral samples

The Bayesian Phylogenetic Bootstrap and its Application to Short Trees and Branches

Felsenstein's bootstrap is the most commonly used method to measure branch support in phylogenetics. Current sequencing technologies can result in massive sampling of taxa (e.g. SARS-CoV-2). In this case, the sequences are very similar, the trees are short, and the branches correspond to a small number of mutations (possibly 0). Nevertheless, these trees contain a strong signal, with unresolved parts but a low rate of false branches. With such data, Felsenstein's bootstrap is not satisfactory. Due to the frequentist nature of bootstrap sampling, the expected support of a branch corresponding to a single mutation is ∼63%, even though it is highly likely to be correct. Here, we propose a Bayesian version of the phylogenetic bootstrap in which sites are assigned uninformative prior probabilities. The branch support can then be interpreted as a posterior probability. We do not view the alignment as a small subsample of a large sample of sites, but rather as containing all available information (e.g. as with complete viral genomes, which are becoming routine). We give formulas for expected supports under the assumption of perfect phylogeny, in both the frequentist and Bayesian frameworks, where a branch corresponding to a single mutation now has an expected support of ∼90%. Simulations show that these theoretical results are robust to realistic data. Analyses on low-homoplasy viral and nonviral datasets show that Bayesian bootstrap support is easier to interpret, with high supports for branches very likely to be correct. As homoplasy increases, the two supports become closer and strongly correlated.

Unveiling Inter- and Intra-Patient Sequence Variability with a Multi-Sample Coronavirus Target Enrichment Approach

Amid the global challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, unraveling the genomic intricacies of SARS-CoV-2 became crucial. This study explores viral evolution using an innovative high-throughput next-generation sequencing (NGS) approach. By taking advantage of nasal swab and mouthwash samples from patients who tested positive for COVID-19 across different geographical regions during sequential infection waves, our study applied a targeted enrichment protocol and pooling strategy to increase detection sensitivity. The approach was extremely efficient, yielding a large number of reads and mutations distributed across 10 distinct viral gene regions. Notably, the genes Envelope, Nucleocapsid, and Open Reading Frame 8 had the highest number of unique mutations per 1000 nucleotides, with both spike and Nucleocapsid genes showing evidence for positive selection. Focusing on the spike protein gene, crucial in virus replication and immunogenicity, our findings show a dynamic SARS-CoV-2 evolution, emphasizing the virus-host interplay. Moreover, the pooling strategy facilitated subtle sequence variability detection. Our findings painted a dynamic portrait of SARS-CoV-2 evolution, emphasizing the intricate interplay between the virus and its host populations and accentuating the importance of continuous genomic surveillance to understand viral dynamics. As SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve, this approach proves to be a powerful, versatile, fast, and cost-efficient screening tool for unraveling emerging variants, fostering understanding of the virus's genetic landscape.

Recoverability of ancestral recombination graph topologies

Recombination is a powerful evolutionary process that shapes the genetic diversity observed in the populations of many species. Reconstructing genealogies in the presence of recombination from sequencing data is a very challenging problem, as this relies on mutations having occurred on the correct lineages in order to detect the recombination and resolve the ordering of coalescence events in the local trees. We investigate the probability of reconstructing the true topology of ancestral recombination graphs (ARGs) under the coalescent with recombination and gene conversion. We explore how sample size and mutation rate affect the inherent uncertainty in reconstructed ARGs, which sheds light on the theoretical limitations of ARG reconstruction methods. We illustrate our results using estimates of evolutionary rates for several organisms; in particular, we find that for parameter values that are realistic for SARS-CoV-2, the probability of reconstructing genealogies that are close to the truth is low.

The race to understand immunopathology in COVID-19: Perspectives on the impact of quantitative approaches to understand within-host interactions

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the need for the increased integration of modelling and data analysis to public health, experimental, and clinical studies. Throughout the first two years of the pandemic, there has been a concerted effort to improve our understanding of the within-host immune response to the SARS-CoV-2 virus to provide better predictions of COVID-19 severity, treatment and vaccine development questions, and insights into viral evolution and the impacts of variants on immunopathology. Here we provide perspectives on what has been accomplished using quantitative methods, including predictive modelling, population genetics, machine learning, and dimensionality reduction techniques, in the first 26 months of the COVID-19 pandemic approaches, and where we go from here to improve our responses to this and future pandemics.

Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 Mutational Signatures from 1.5+ Million Raw Sequencing Samples

We present a large-scale analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) substitutions, considering 1,585,456 high-quality raw sequencing samples, aimed at investigating the existence and quantifying the effect of mutational processes causing mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genomes when interacting with the human host. As a result, we confirmed the presence of three well-differentiated mutational processes likely ruled by reactive oxygen species (ROS), apolipoprotein B editing complex (APOBEC), and adenosine deaminase acting on RNA (ADAR). We then evaluated the activity of these mutational processes in different continental groups, showing that some samples from Africa present a significantly higher number of substitutions, most likely due to higher APOBEC activity. We finally analyzed the activity of mutational processes across different SARS-CoV-2 variants, and we found a significantly lower number of mutations attributable to APOBEC activity in samples assigned to the Omicron variant.

Non-uniform aspects of the SARS-CoV-2 intraspecies evolution reopen question of its origin

Several hypotheses have been presented on the origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) from its identification as the agent causing the current coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic. So far, no solid evidence has been found to support any hypothesis on the origin of this virus, and the issue continue to resurface over and over again. Here we have unfolded a pattern of distribution of several mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 proteins in 24 geo-locations across different continents. The results showed an evenly uneven distribution of the unique protein variants, distinct mutations, unique frequency of common conserved residues, and mutational residues across these 24 geo-locations. Furthermore, ample mutations were identified in the evolutionarily conserved invariant regions in the SARS-CoV-2 proteins across almost all geo-locations studied. This pattern of mutations potentially breaches the law of evolutionary conserved functional units of the beta-coronavirus genus. These mutations may lead to several novel SARS-CoV-2 variants with a high degree of transmissibility and virulence. A thorough investigation on the origin and characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 needs to be conducted in the interest of science and for the preparation of meeting the challenges of potential future pandemics.

Phylogenetic and phylodynamic approaches to understanding and combating the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Determining the transmissibility, prevalence and patterns of movement of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections is central to our understanding of the impact of the pandemic and to the design of effective control strategies. Phylogenies (evolutionary trees) have provided key insights into the international spread of SARS-CoV-2 and enabled investigation of individual outbreaks and transmission chains in specific settings. Phylodynamic approaches combine evolutionary, demographic and epidemiological concepts and have helped track virus genetic changes, identify emerging variants and inform public health strategy. Here, we review and synthesize studies that illustrate how phylogenetic and phylodynamic techniques were applied during the first year of the pandemic, and summarize their contributions to our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and control.

Mapping Genetic Events of SARS-CoV-2 Variants

Genetic mutation and recombination are driving the evolution of SARS-CoV-2, leaving many genetic imprints which could be utilized to track the evolutionary pathway of SARS-CoV-2 and explore the relationships among variants. Here, we constructed a complete genetic map, showing the explicit evolutionary relationship among all SARS-CoV-2 variants including 58 groups and 46 recombination types identified from 3,392,553 sequences, which enables us to keep well informed of the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and quickly determine the parents of novel variants. We found that the 5' and 3' of the spike and nucleoprotein genes have high frequencies to form the recombination junctions and that the RBD region in S gene is always exchanged as a whole. Although these recombinants did not show advantages in community transmission, it is necessary to keep a wary eye on the novel genetic events, in particular, the mutants with mutations on spike and recombinants with exchanged moieties on spike gene.

Perspectives: SARS-CoV-2 Spike Convergent Evolution as a Guide to Explore Adaptive Advantage

Viruses rapidly co-evolve with their hosts. The 9 million sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes by March 2022 provide a detailed account of viral evolution, showing that all amino acids have been mutated many times. However, only a few became prominent in the viral population. Here, we investigated the emergence of the same mutations in unrelated parallel lineages and the extent of such convergent evolution on the molecular level in the spike (S) protein. We found that during the first phase of the pandemic (until mid 2021, before mass vaccination) 31 mutations evolved independently ≥3-times within separated lineages. These included all the key mutations in SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) at that time, indicating their fundamental adaptive advantage. The omicron added many more mutations not frequently seen before, which can be attributed to the synergistic nature of these mutations, which is more difficult to evolve. The great majority (24/31) of S-protein mutations under convergent evolution tightly cluster in three functional domains; N-terminal domain, receptor-binding domain, and Furin cleavage site. Furthermore, among the S-protein receptor-binding motif mutations, ACE2 affinity-improving substitutions are favoured. Next, we determined the mutation space in the S protein that has been covered by SARS-CoV-2. We found that all amino acids that are reachable by single nucleotide changes have been probed multiple times in early 2021. The substitutions requiring two nucleotide changes have recently (late 2021) gained momentum and their numbers are increasing rapidly. These provide a large mutation landscape for SARS-CoV-2 future evolution, on which research should focus now.

Host-pathogen dynamics in longitudinal clinical specimens from patients with COVID-19

Rapid dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data to public repositories has enabled widespread study of viral genomes, but studies of longitudinal specimens from infected persons are relatively limited. Analysis of longitudinal specimens enables understanding of how host immune pressures drive viral evolution in vivo. Here we performed sequencing of 49 longitudinal SARS-CoV-2-positive samples from 20 patients in Washington State collected between March and September of 2020. Viral loads declined over time with an average increase in RT-QPCR cycle threshold of 0.87 per day. We found that there was negligible change in SARS-CoV-2 consensus sequences over time, but identified a number of nonsynonymous variants at low frequencies across the genome. We observed enrichment for a relatively small number of these variants, all of which are now seen in consensus genomes across the globe at low prevalence. In one patient, we saw rapid emergence of various low-level deletion variants at the N-terminal domain of the spike glycoprotein, some of which have previously been shown to be associated with reduced neutralization potency from sera. In a subset of samples that were sequenced using metagenomic methods, differential gene expression analysis showed a downregulation of cytoskeletal genes that was consistent with a loss of ciliated epithelium during infection and recovery. We also identified co-occurrence of bacterial species in samples from multiple hospitalized individuals. These results demonstrate that the intrahost genetic composition of SARS-CoV-2 is dynamic during the course of COVID-19, and highlight the need for continued surveillance and deep sequencing of minor variants.

Large-Scale Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Synonymous Mutations Reveals the Adaptation to the Human Codon Usage During the Virus Evolution

Many large national and transnational studies have been dedicated to the analysis of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genome, most of which focused on missense and nonsense mutations. However, approximately 30 per cent of the SARS-CoV-2 variants are synonymous, therefore changing the target codon without affecting the corresponding protein sequence.

By performing a large-scale analysis of sequencing data generated from almost 400,000 SARS-CoV-2 samples, we show that silent mutations increasing the similarity of viral codons to the human ones tend to fixate in the viral genome overtime. This indicates that SARS-CoV-2 codon usage is adapting to the human host, likely improving its effectiveness in using the human aminoacyl-tRNA set through the accumulation of deceitfully neutral silent mutations.

One-Sentence Summary. Synonymous SARS-CoV-2 mutations related to the activity of different mutational processes may positively impact viral evolution by increasing its adaptation to the human codon usage.

Controlling long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections can slow viral evolution and reduce the risk of treatment failure

The rapid emergence and expansion of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants threatens our ability to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19. These novel SARS-CoV-2 variants often harbor multiple point mutations, conferring one or more evolutionarily advantageous traits, such as increased transmissibility, immune evasion and longer infection duration. In a number of cases, variant emergence has been linked to long-term infections in individuals who were either immunocompromised or treated with convalescent plasma. In this paper, we used a stochastic evolutionary modeling framework to explore the emergence of fitter variants of SARS-CoV-2 during long-term infections. We found that increased viral load and infection duration favor emergence of such variants. While the overall probability of emergence and subsequent transmission from any given infection is low, on a population level these events occur fairly frequently. Targeting these low-probability stochastic events that lead to the establishment of novel advantageous viral variants might allow us to slow the rate at which they emerge in the patient population, and prevent them from spreading deterministically due to natural selection. Our work thus suggests practical ways to achieve control of long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections, which will be critical for slowing the rate of viral evolution.

Jumper enables discontinuous transcript assembly in coronaviruses

Genes in SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses in the order of Nidovirales are expressed by a process of discontinuous transcription which is distinct from alternative splicing in eukaryotes and is mediated by the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. Here, we introduce the DISCONTINUOUS TRANSCRIPT ASSEMBLYproblem of finding transcripts and their abundances given an alignment of paired-end short reads under a maximum likelihood model that accounts for varying transcript lengths. We show, using simulations, that our method, JUMPER, outperforms existing methods for classical transcript assembly. On short-read data of SARS-CoV-1, SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV samples, we find that JUMPER not only identifies canonical transcripts that are part of the reference transcriptome, but also predicts expression of non-canonical transcripts that are supported by subsequent orthogonal analyses. Moreover, application of JUMPER on samples with and without treatment reveals viral drug response at the transcript level. As such, JUMPER enables detailed analyses of Nidovirales transcriptomes under varying conditions.

Mutation Rates and Selection on Synonymous Mutations in SARS-CoV-2

The COVID-19 pandemic has seen an unprecedented response from the sequencing community. Leveraging the sequence data from more than 140,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we study mutation rates and selective pressures affecting the virus. Understanding the processes and effects of mutation and selection has profound implications for the study of viral evolution, for vaccine design, and for the tracking of viral spread. We highlight and address some common genome sequence analysis pitfalls that can lead to inaccurate inference of mutation rates and selection, such as ignoring skews in the genetic code, not accounting for recurrent mutations, and assuming evolutionary equilibrium. We find that two particular mutation rates, G →U and C →U, are similarly elevated and considerably higher than all other mutation rates, causing the majority of mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome, and are possibly the result of APOBEC and ROS activity. These mutations also tend to occur many times at the same genome positions along the global SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny (i.e., they are very homoplasic). We observe an effect of genomic context on mutation rates, but the effect of the context is overall limited. Although previous studies have suggested selection acting to decrease U content at synonymous sites, we bring forward evidence suggesting the opposite.

SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity and the implications for qRT-PCR diagnostics and transmission

The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked an urgent need to uncover the underlying biology of this devastating disease. Though RNA viruses mutate more rapidly than DNA viruses, there are a relatively small number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that differentiate the main SARS-CoV-2 lineages that have spread throughout the world. In this study, we investigated 129 RNA-seq data sets and 6928 consensus genomes to contrast the intra-host and inter-host diversity of SARS-CoV-2. Our analyses yielded three major observations. First, the mutational profile of SARS-CoV-2 highlights intra-host single nucleotide variant (iSNV) and SNP similarity, albeit with differences in C > U changes. Second, iSNV and SNP patterns in SARS-CoV-2 are more similar to MERS-CoV than SARS-CoV-1. Third, a significant fraction of insertions and deletions contribute to the genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2. Altogether, our findings provide insight into SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity, inform the design of detection tests, and highlight the potential of iSNVs for tracking the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Mutational signatures and heterogeneous host response revealed via large-scale characterization of SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity

To dissect the mechanisms underlying the inflation of variants in the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genome, we present a large-scale analysis of intra-host genomic diversity, which reveals that most samples exhibit heterogeneous genomic architectures, due to the interplay between host-related mutational processes and transmission dynamics. The decomposition of minor variants profiles unveils three non-overlapping mutational signatures related to nucleotide substitutions and likely ruled by APOlipoprotein B Editing Complex (APOBEC), Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS), and Adenosine Deaminase Acting on RNA (ADAR), highlighting heterogeneous host responses to SARS-CoV-2 infections. A corrected-for-signatures dN/dS analysis demonstrates that such mutational processes are affected by purifying selection, with important exceptions. In fact, several mutations appear to transit toward clonality, defining new clonal genotypes that increase the overall genomic diversity. Furthermore, the phylogenomic analysis shows the presence of homoplasies and supports the hypothesis of transmission of minor variants. This study paves the way for the integrated analysis of intra-host genomic diversity and clinical outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infections.