Accuracy of SIRS, age-adapted pSOFA, and quick SOFA scoring systems for predicting outcomes in paediatric patients with sepsis: a meta-analysis

Validation of Pediatric Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (pSOFA) Scores to Predict Critical Events in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit

Objective: To determine the prognostic value of the Pediatric Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (pSOFA) to discriminate critical events, including code events and intubations, in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Methods: We performed an observational cohort study of all critical events in a quaternary care PICU between 5/2020 and 4/2023. Critical events were extracted from our hospital communications platform and from the electronic health record (EHR). The pediatric sequential organ failure assessment (pSOFA) scores were prospectively calculated in real-time in our EHR every 15 min during the study period for data-driven situational awareness and were retrospectively analyzed for this study. Each encounter was divided into 6-h time blocks and we assessed the performance of the highest pSOFA score in each block at discriminating the occurrence of a critical event in the subsequent block. Results:There were 5687 unique patient encounters included in the analysis. Critical events were identified in 578 out of 169 486 time blocks (prevalence 0.3%), which included 103 code events and 498 intubation events, in 392 unique PICU encounters. The total pSOFA score in a 6-h time block was significantly associated with a subsequent code event (odds ratio [OR] 1.19, 95% CI 1.13-1.24) or intubation (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.10-1.15). Several organ-specific pSOFA subscores were also significantly associated with the outcomes. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the total pSOFA score was 0.67 for a code event and 0.65 for intubation. Using a pSOFA score cutoff of ≥8, the positive predictive value was 0.8% and the negative predictive value was 99.7% for any critical event. Conclusions: The pSOFA score is significantly associated with critical events in the PICU, however, it does not have adequate performance to be used for situational awareness by itself.

Evolution of the Concept of Sepsis Scoring Systems in Pediatrics to Predict Mortality and Outcomes

Sepsis continues to be a major contributor to illness and death in children, necessitating effective risk assessment tools. Incidence of pediatric sepsis in intensive care units is on increasing trend. Over the years, the concept of sepsis scoring systems has evolved to enhance the prediction of outcomes and mortality in pediatric age group. To better identify sepsis and septic shock status in the pediatric age group, various sepsis scores were developed. Properly applying these scores can significantly enhance timely decision making and ultimately reduce mortality rates. Selecting appropriate score should match the settings where they were designed. Scoring system is broadly categorized into two types - prognostic scores and descriptive or outcome scores. To improve care for critically ill children, it is important to develop tools that can better predict long-term mortality and morbidity and identify factors related to intensive care related events. This review article aims to discuss the evolution of various sepsis scoring systems, highlighting their development over time and their practical utility in clinical settings.

Clinical prognostic models in children with sepsis in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Sepsis is the leading cause of child death worldwide, with the majority of these deaths occurring in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to describe clinical prognostic scores and models for pediatric sepsis outcomes and assess the performance of these scores for predicting mortality in LMICs.

Methods

Ovid Medline, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, EBSCO Global Health, and Web of Science, were searched through September 2022 for citations related to the development or validation of a clinical prognostic score or model among children with sepsis, conducted in LMIC. Titles, abstracts, and full texts were screened by two independent reviewers and data extracted included population characteristics, variables included, outcomes, and model performance. Risk of bias was assessed with the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST).

Results

4,251 titles/abstracts and 315 full-text studies were screened, with 12 studies meeting inclusion criteria. Study countries included India, China, Egypt, Indonesia, Tanzania, and a multi-site study in Latin America. Prognostic scores/models included existing scores such as PELOD-2, pSOFA, PRISM, P-MODS, refractory shock criteria. There was high risk of bias in all studies. Meta-analysis was possible for pSOFA, PELOD-2, PRISM, and P-MODS, with pooled area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of 0.86 (95%CI 0.78-0.94), 0.83 (95% CI 0.76-0.91), respectively.

Conclusion

Relatively few clinical scores and models have been externally validated for prognostication and risk-stratification among children with sepsis in diverse LMIC settings. Notably there were no studies from low-income countries. Some potentially relevant studies were excluded due to lack of clarity regarding the presence of sepsis in the study populations. More widespread and standardized use of sepsis criteria may aid in better understanding the burden of sepsis and prognostic model performance at the bedside among children in LMICs. Further research to externally validate, implement and adapt these models is needed to account for challenges in use of these scores in resource-limited settings.

Systematic Review Registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42022340126, PROSPERO [CRD42022340126].

The effects of delayed appropriate antimicrobial therapy on children with Staphylococcus aureus blood infection

Early appropriate antimicrobial therapy plays a critical role for patients with Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection (SAB). We aim to determine the optimal time-window for appropriate antimicrobial therapy and evaluate the effects of delayed therapy on adverse clinical outcomes (in-hospital mortality, sepsis, and septic shock) in children with SAB by propensity score matching (PSM) analysis. Receiver-operating characteristic was used to determine the cut-off point of the time to appropriate therapy (TTAT), the patients were divided into timely and delayed appropriate antimicrobial therapy (delayed therapy) groups accordingly. The PSM was used to balance the characteristics between the two groups, controlling the effects of potential confounders. Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazards regression were applied to the matched groups to analyze the association between delayed therapy and clinical outcomes. Inverse probability of treatment weighting and propensity score covariate adjustment were also performed to investigate the sensitivity of the results under different propensity score-based approaches. In total, 247 patients were included in this study. The optimal cut-off point of TTAT was identified as 6.4 h, with 85.0% sensitivity and 69.2% specificity (AUC 0.803, 95% confidence interval 0.702-0.904). Eighty-seven (35.22%) of the 247 patients who received delayed therapy (TTAT ≥ 6.4 h) had higher in-hospital mortality (19.54% vs 1.88%, p < 0.001), higher incidences of sepsis (44.83% vs 15.00%, p < 0.001) and septic shock (32.18% vs 6.25%, p < 0.001) when compared to timely therapy (TTAT < 6.4 h) patients. After PSM analysis, a total of 134 episodes (67 in each of the two matched groups) were further analyzed. No statistically significant difference was observed in in-hospital mortality between delayed and timely -therapy groups (log-rank test, P = 0.157). Patients with delayed therapy had a higher incidence of sepsis or septic shock than those with timely therapy (log-rank test, P = 0.009; P = 0.018, respectively). Compared to the timely-therapy group, the hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval in delayed-therapy group were 2.512 (1.227-5.144, P = 0.012) for sepsis, 3.109 (1.166-8.290, P = 0.023) for septic shock.    Conclusion: Appropriate therapy delayed 6.4 h may increase the incidence of sepsis and septic shock, with similar in-hospital mortality in patients with SAB. What is Known: • Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) is a major cause of bloodstream infections in children. Undoubtedly, early antimicrobial application plays a critical role in the treatment of children with Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infections (SAB). • However, rapid, and aggressive administration of antimicrobials may lead to the overuse of these drugs and the emergence of multidrug-resistant microorganisms. Therefore, it is crucial to determine the optimal time-window for appropriate antimicrobial administration in children with SAB. Unfortunately, the optimal time-window for appropriate antimicrobial administration in children with SAB remains unclear. What is New: • Determining the optimal time-window for appropriate antimicrobial administration in patients with matched data variables is particularly important. The Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis effectively controls for confounding factors to a considerable extent when assessing the impact of treatment, thereby approximating the effects observed in randomized controlled trials. • To our knowledge, this is the first study using PSM method to assess the effects of delayed appropriate antimicrobial therapy on adverse outcomes in children with SAB. In low-risk populations with SAB, a delay of 6.4 h in appropriate therapy might increase the occurrence rate for sepsis and septic shock; however, no correlation has been found between this delay and an increased risk for hospital mortality.

Pediatric Sequential Organ Assessment Score: A Comprehensive Review of the Prognostic Marker in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit

Critically ill children admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) face a substantial risk of morbidity and mortality, regardless of whether they are in developed or developing countries. To aid in treatment planning, various prognostic scoring systems have been developed to predict the likelihood of morbidity and death in these young patients. While the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score has been validated as an independent risk predictor for adult mortality in cases of confirmed or suspected sepsis, it is not suitable for use in children due to its lack of age normalization. Children in critical condition often exhibit significant deviations from the normal physiological balance of their bodies. These deviations from the typical range of physiological variables can be leveraged to estimate the extent of these variations and create scoring systems. In this context, the pediatric SOFA (pSOFA) score was developed by modifying the original SOFA score and incorporating age-adjusted cutoffs for various bodily systems. The objective of this review is to assess the effectiveness of the pSOFA score in predicting sepsis-related mortality in pediatric patients within the PICU setting.

Pediatric sepsis diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers: pancreatic stone protein, copeptin, and apolipoprotein A-V

BACKGROUND

We assessed serum concentrations of pancreatic stone protein (PSP), copeptin, and apolipoprotein A-V (APOA5) biomarkers for the diagnosis and prognosis of pediatric sepsis, a condition associated with high mortality.

METHODS

This prospective study included 180 children admitted to the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit and 100 healthy controls at Menoufia University Hospital. Pediatric Risk of Mortality (PRISM), Pediatric Index of Mortality-2 (PIM2), and Pediatric Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (pSOFA) scores were calculated. Serum PSP, copeptin and APOA5 were measured once within 24 h of admission.

RESULTS

PSP, copeptin, and APOA5 were significantly higher in the patients than in the controls (p < 0.001). PSP and copeptin were increased among children who required mechanical ventilation (MV), had multiple organ dysfunctions, and were non-survivors, but APOA5 was decreased in those children. Logistic regression analyses showed that high pSOFA, high PSP and copeptin, low APOA5, and use of MV were associated with mortality. The receiver operating characteristic revealed that the area under the curve (AUC) for APOA5, copeptin, and PSP (0.965, 0.960, and 0.868, respectively) demonstrated high sensitivity (96%, 94%, and 80%) for sepsis diagnosis. The AUC values for PSP, copeptin, and APOA5 were 0.709, 0.705, and 0.571, respectively, with sensitivities of 74%, 58%, and 58% for mortality prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

PSP, copeptin, and APOA5 are promising diagnostic biomarkers for pediatric sepsis but inadequate predictors of mortality.

IMPACT

Apolipoprotein A-V (APOA5), copeptin, and pancreatic stone protein (PSP) are acute-phase proteins with diagnostic value in evaluating critically ill pediatric patients with sepsis and detecting sepsis severity. PSP and copeptin had the power to discriminate non-survivors from survivors. APOA5 was less powerful than the other biomarkers in discriminating between survivors and non-survivors.

Neonatal Sequential Organ Failure Assessment as a late-onset sepsis mortality predictor in very low birth weight newborns: a Brazilian cohort study

Death is a frequent occurrence in late-onset neonatal sepsis (LOS). We aimed to evaluate if the Neonatal Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (nSOFA) is associated with mortality due to LOS in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants. This is a single-center Brazilian cohort study including VLBW infants admitted between 2006 and 2020 who were diagnosed with LOS caused by Staphylococcus aureus, Enterococcus sp or Gram-negative bacteria. The primary outcome was mortality associated with sepsis. Two groups of patients-survivors and non-survivors-were compared regarding descriptive maternal and neonatal variables and the nSOFA score, evaluated at nine moments, from 48 hours before the diagnosis of sepsis to 48 hours later (T-48, T-24, T-12, T-6, T0, T+6, T+12, T+24, T+48). Diagnostic accuracy was expressed as the area under the curve (AUC). Among the 1574 VLBW infants hospitalized in the period, 114 episodes of culture-confirmed LOS occurred. There were 21 sepsis-related deaths (18.4%), mostly from Gram-negative bacteria and Enterococcus sp. There were no statistically significant differences between the groups regarding maternal and neonatal variables. Median nSOFA was significantly higher in the non-survivor group at all time points (range 2 to 13 versus 1 to 3). In the logistic regression analysis, each increment of one point in the score significantly increases the risk of death in eight of the nine moments, but no difference was found in T-24. Time T-6 had the best accuracy (88.1%).   Conclusion: The nSOFA score was significantly associated with the risk of death from LOS in VLBW infants. What is Known: • The neonatal sepsis may result in organ dysfunction and death, and it is important to find indicators that could identify this clinical progression. • The nSOFA score was proposed in 2020 to predict mortality from LOS, but since it is recent and still in the research phase, further studies are important to improve it before being widely used in clinical practice. What is New: • We showed a significative association between higher nSOFA scores and mortality. Our results corroborate the validity and the importance of the nSOFA score and highlight its high NPV.