A probabilistic approach to the interpretation of milk antibody results for diagnosis of Johne’s disease in dairy cattle

Bayesian latent class modelling of true prevalence in animal subgroups with application to bovine paratuberculosis infection

The prevalence of an infectious disease of animals living in separate groups (e.g. herds) is naturally analyzed using a Bayesian hierarchical latent class model. We propose an extension to this methodology by including subgroup level prevalence measures within the groups of animals. As an application illustrating the merits of our methodology, we reassessed the prevalence of bovine paratuberculosis (PTBC) infection in Hungarian commercial dairy farms. Our aim was to consolidate previous findings using a large amount of recent data and priors based on historical data. To model the subgroup level infection prevalence within animal groups, we considered correlated prevalences following beta distributions derived from independent normally distributed random herd effects. In the application, infection status of herds was handled as latent classes, multiparous and primiparous cows as within-herd subgroups. The novel methodology allows us to estimate both the mean and median conditional within-herd true prevalence (CWHP) related to each animal subgroup as well as other measures characterizing the interrelation of subgroups. The results of the application aligned with the findings of the former PTBC study, while the more recent and considerably larger dataset and the use of historical priors increased the reliability of the results. The STAN and JAGS codes of the application are available in Supplementary material.

Dataset on risk factors for seroconversion against Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis in dairy cows

Johne's disease (JD) is a chronic wasting disease caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP). MAP is responsible for large economic losses for the dairy sector and has been linked to human disease. Susceptibly to MAP is mainly limited to young animals and diagnostic tests are poor at detecting MAP in early stages of infection. Therefore, ascertaining the contribution of the dam to the risk of calf infection and the relative role of the different infection routes is important to inform disease control measures. This data article presents MAP exposures at time of calving on a cohort of 439 calves born between 2012 and 2013 from 6 UK dairy herds. Each calf participated in routine quarterly MAP milk ELISA testing using the IDEXX Porquire ELISA. Each animal was followed until testing MAP positive, being culled or end of follow up (January 2023). The dataset includes risk factors associated with transmission via colostrum route (MAP status of cow giving colostrum); transmission via the dam (MAP status of the dam) and transmission via fecal oral route (whether at birth the calf spent a long time in a dirty yard). Ascertainment of exposure to risk factors involved video recording and self-capture data forms from time of calving in the maternity area of the farms until calf left the area. The dataset provides a unique opportunity to examine MAP infection and its relationship with different exposures at time of birth, where cows were followed up during their entire lives.

Factors that influence dairy farmers' decisions to implement Johne's Disease control practices: A systematic review

Johne's Disease (JD) is an infectious ruminant disease that can cause economic loss for famers through reduced milk yields and infertility and has negative implications for animal welfare. JD is endemic in the dairy populations of many countries and there has been significant effort by governments and industry to try and control it. However, these efforts have had limited success. Many studies look at individual control programmes or the adoption of Johne's control measures; however a wider perspective on what drives farmer participation Johne's control does not currently exist. This study seeks to fill this gap by conducting a systematic review informed by the PRISMA statement. The results suggest that psychological factors such as participation fatigue, cognitive dissidence over animal welfare and not having first-hand experience of the disease act as barriers to Johne's control. To better promote Johne's control, this review emphasises that control programmes need to engage farmers, advisers, and supply chain actors in their design and delivery of control programmes to account for differing attitudes and levels of knowledge.

The Occurrence of Mycobacterium avium Subspecies paratuberculosis Positive Milk Antibody ELISA Results in Dairy Cattle under Varying Time Periods after Skin Testing for Bovine Tuberculosis

Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) are used to screen cows for Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) infections, informing Johne's disease (JD) management practices in dairy herds. The causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), Mycobacterium bovis, and MAP share multiple antigens. Moreover, Mycobacterium avium subspecies avium is used in the single intradermal cervical comparative tests (SICCT) that are routinely used in early detection of cows infected with bTB. Although these are different types of immune responses, potentially the SICCT may interfere with the levels of MAP antibodies. This study aimed to clarify the relationship between the SICCT-MAP milk ELISA testing interval and apparent prevalence of JD risk statuses. Data from 51 herds were used, totalling 46,738 cow observations. The Poisson models showed that MAP milk ELISA testing at 14 day intervals post-SICCT statistically significantly increased the odds of detecting JD-positive cows compared to JD testing 85+ days post-SICCT. The odds ratio (OR) started at 2.5 in the first 14 day interval post-SICCT, increasing each two-week period to an OR of 4.0 at 57-70 days, to subsequently drop. Additionally, a herd history of bTB increased the odds of detecting JD-positive cows (OR = 1.2); this was relatively limited compared to the magnitude of the post-SICCT effect.

The interpretation of serial Johne's disease milk antibody results is affected by test characteristics, pattern of test results and parallel bovine tuberculosis testing

BACKGROUND

In the UK, quarterly Johne's disease milk antibody ELISAs (JD-mELISAs) are commonly used to classify animals which are likely to be infectious, termed "red cows". "Red cows" are classified following two positive results from the previous four tests (e.g. + - - +). All cattle are also regularly screened for bovine tuberculosis using intradermal avian and bovine tuberculin, and it is advised to maintain a 60 day interval between a tuberculosis test and JD-mELISA.

AIMS

To evaluate the impact of bovine tuberculosis testing on JD-mELISAs, and to quantify the impact of test specificity and "red cow" classification test pattern on the probability of infection.

METHODS

Four years of individual cow milk records with JD-mELISA results were collated from 735 dairy farms and matched to tuberculosis testing records. A two-level multivariable logistic regression model quantified the effect of tuberculosis testing on JD-mELISA result. The specificity and age-dependent sensitivity of a single JD-mELISA were estimated and used to calculate likelihood ratios following each test. Using Bayes' theorem, the posterior probability of infection with Johne's disease was calculated for different specificities, ages of cow, and patterns of test results.

RESULTS

There were increased odds of a positive JD-mELISA if it was ≤30 days (OR: 2.1) or 31-60 days (OR: 1.2) after a tuberculosis test, compared to >90 days. A larger avian skin reaction at the tuberculosis test was also associated with increased odds of a positive JD-mELISA. The proportion of cows which tested exclusively negative after their first positive JD-mELISA was higher if that JD-mELISA was ≤30 days after a tuberculosis test compared to >90 days. The posterior probability of infection reduced substantially when the test specificity was slightly reduced. In "red cows" classified following two consecutive positive tests, if the test specificity was reduced to 0.95, then the posterior probability of infection was only >95 % if the prior probability was >13 %. If the "red cow" classification was due to two non-consecutive positive tests (+ - - +), the posterior probability of infection was only >95 % if the prior probability was >43 %.

CONCLUSIONS

Testing for Johne's disease within 60 days of a tuberculosis test is associated with a higher chance of a positive JD-mELISA and this may reflect a reduction in the ELISA specificity. Relatively small reductions in JD-mELISA specificity can markedly reduce the posterior probability of infection which also depends on the pattern of test results which classifies "red cows".

Bayesian estimation of the true prevalence of paratuberculosis in Hungarian dairy cattle herds

Paratuberculosis is a chronic incurable disease caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), which leads to extensive economic losses on dairy farms, and may also pose serious public health risk to the consumers. The aim of our study was to estimate the true prevalence of paratuberculosis in commercial dairy cattle herds participating in a voluntary MAP testing programme that started in February 2018 in Hungary. Milk samples collected during official milk recording were used for MAP ELISA testing. A Bayesian two-stage hierarchical (herd and animal level) model was fitted to the data. Altogether, 26,437 cows from 51 herds were sampled, which represents 14.4 % of the Hungarian dairy cow population. The median herd size was 477 cows (interquartile range: 331-709). Each studied farm had at least one ELISA positive cow, resulting in a herd-level apparent prevalence of 100 %. The overall within herd apparent prevalence was 5.5 %. Herd-level true prevalence was estimated at 89.1 % [95 % credible interval (CrI): 80.3-95.6%]. Within the infected herds, the median animal-level true prevalence was 4.4 % (3.2-5.8%) for primiparous and 10.3 % (7.9-12.9%) for multiparous cows, respectively. The probability of having an animal-level true prevalence of at least 5% among primiparous cows, within infected herds, was 17.8 %. Similarly, the probability of having an animal-level true prevalence of at least 5% or 10 % among multiparous cows was 100 % and 56 %, respectively. Simulations assuming herd-level true prevalence varying from 50 to 100 % revealed high accuracy of our Bayesian model. Our study showed that a large percentage of the studied Hungarian dairy cattle herds was infected with MAP.

Control of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection on a New Zealand pastoral dairy farm

Background

Johne’s disease is a major production limiting disease of dairy cows caused by infection with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in calf-hood. The disease is chronic, progressive, contagious and widespread with no treatment and no cure. Economic losses arise from decreased productivity through reduced growth, milk yield, fertility and also capital losses due to premature culling or death. Control chiefly centers upon removing those animals which actively shed bacteria and protecting calves from infection. A prolonged pre-clinical shedding phase, lack of test sensitivity, organism persistence and abundance in the environment as well as management systems that expose susceptible calves to infection make control challenging, particularly in pastoral, seasonal dairy systems. Combining a novel testing strategy to remove infected cows along with limited measures to protect vulnerable calves at pasture, this study reports the successful reduction over a four-year period of seroprevalence of cows testing positive for MAP infection in a New Zealand pastoral dairy herd.

Results

For all age groups considered the apparent seroprevalence of cows testing positive decreased from 297 / 1,122 (26%) in 2013–2014, to 24 / 1,030 (2.3%) in 2016–2017. Over the same period, the apparent seroprevalence in primiparous cows decreased from 39 / 260 (15%) to 7 / 275 (2.5%) and in multiparous cows from 258 / 862 (29.9%) to 17 / 755 (2.3%). The reported proportion of calved cows culled annually from suspected clinical Johne’s disease fell from 55 / 1,201 (5%) in the year preceding the control program to 5 / 1,283 (0.4%) in the final year of the study.

Conclusions

On this farm, reduction in the prevalence of infection was achieved by reducing the infectious pressure through targeted culling of heavily shedding animals together with limited measures to protect calves at pasture from exposure to Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis. Whilst greater protection of young animals through separation from infected cows and their colostrum and milk would have reduced the risk of neonatal infection, this study demonstrates, in this case, that these management measures while prudent were not essential for effective reduction in the prevalence of MAP infection.

Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis seroconversion in dairy cattle and its association with raised somatic cell count

This retrospective case-control study investigates the relationship between seroconversion to Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) and raised somatic cell count (SCC). The study consists of 112 case cows from three dairy farms in the UK; for each case cow with a positive antibody titre, there was a seronegative control cow for comparison. Seroconversion was monitored using milk ELISA antibody titres for MAP taken at quarterly intervals. SCCs were recorded at the time a positive antibody titre was first recorded as well as at the previous and subsequent milk recording in order to explore a temporal relationship between the two events. The previous and subsequent milk recordings were a month before and after seroconversion was identified. The results showed that cows that were infected with MAP had an increased SCC around the time that they first became seropositive, providing evidence for a temporal relationship between the two events; high SCCs were particularly prevalent before and at the time of first detecting seroconversion. The explanation is being discussed that potentially an underlying, currently not studied, factor may be predisposing both events, the progression of paratuberculosis is predisposing the host to mastitis, or indeed intramammary infections help initiate paratuberculosis progression.

Risk of Lameness in Dairy Cows with Paratuberculosis Infection

Simple Summary

Johne’s disease (JD) is an important disease affecting cows in the UK dairy industry, as is lameness, and both cause milk production losses and cows losing weight. The aim of this work was to see if cows with JD were more likely to be lame and if so, what the order of occurrence of these two events is. We looked at the JD and lameness records of two farms and paired 98 JD cows (half of them with a high response to the test for JD) and compared them with herd mates. We evaluated the timing and the proportion of lameness in JD-positive cows compared to their controls and proportion of lameness before and after the first JD-positive test. JD cows turn lame on average three months earlier and are lame 2.7 times more often than non-JD cows. Further, high positive cows were 2.8 times more likely to develop lameness after JD diagnosis compared to medium positive cows. Results of this study suggest that there is a link between JD and lameness and that JD precedes lameness. The underlying mechanisms for this association remain unknown and were not the scope of this study.

Abstract

Johne’s disease (JD) is an important disease affecting the UK dairy industry, as is cattle lameness. An association between JD and lameness has been suggested; however, little evidence exists to support this. The purpose of this study was to determine if cows affected by JD were more likely to be lame and if so, what the temporal association is. Retrospective dairy cow mobility and JD status (based on milk ELISA) data were obtained from two farms of 98 JD cows (49 high and 49 medium positive) and their matched controls. We evaluated the timing and the proportion of (chronic) lameness in JD-positive cows versus controls and proportion of lameness before and after the first ELISA positive test. Compared to their controls, JD cows are lame more often (Odds Ratio = 2.7 (95% Confidence Interval = 1.2–6.0) p = 0.017) and became lame on average three months earlier (p = 0.010). High positive cows were more likely to develop lameness after seroconversion (OR = 2.8 (95% CI = 1.1–7.5), p = 0.038) versus medium positive cows. Results of this study suggest that there is a link between JD and lameness and that JD precedes lameness. The underlying mechanisms for this association remain unknown and were not the scope of this study.

Mycobacterium avium paratuberculosis infection of calves - The impact of dam infection status

Johne's disease, caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), is a chronic condition of dairy cattle, and is endemic in the UK. Lack of understanding of the relative importance of different transmission routes reduces the impact of control scheme recommendations. The long incubation period for Johne's disease makes evaluation of control schemes difficult, and so this long-term cohort study offers a rare and valuable insight into the disease epidemiology. A longitudinal study was carried out following a cohort of 440 UK dairy cows in 6 herds recruited in 2012-2013. Individuals entering the milking herd were routinely monitored for the presence of MAP using quarterly milk ELISA testing. Using a Cox proportional-hazards regression model the relationship between time until first detection of infection and dam MAP status was investigated. We then compared the magnitude of the effect of dam status with that of other risk factors in order to understand its relative importance. Dam status was found to be the only observed factor that was significantly associated with time to an individual testing MAP-positive (p = 0.012). When compared to negative dams, we found a marginally significant effect of having a positive dam at time of calving, that increased the hazard of an individual testing positive by a factor of 2.6 (95% confidence interval: 0.89-7.79, p = 0.081). Further positive associations were found with dams becoming positive after the birth of the subject; a dam seroconverting within 12 months post parturition being associated with a 3.6 fold increase in hazard (95% confidence interval: 1.32-9.77, p = 0.013), and dams seroconverting more than a year after calving increased the hazard by a factor of 2.8 (95% confidence interval: 1.39-5.76, p = 0.004). These results suggest that cows may be transmitting MAP to their offspring at an earlier stage than had previously been thought, and so raise important questions about how this transmission may be occurring. The results of the study may have important practical implications for the management on-farm of the offspring of MAP-positive animals, with the potential to vastly reduce the time required to eliminate this chronic disease.

Is There a Relationship Between Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) Herd Breakdown Risk and Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis Status? An Investigation in bTB Chronically and Non-chronically Infected Herds

Background: Bovine tuberculosis (bTB; Mycobacterium bovis) remains a significant problem in a number of countries, and is often found where M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) is also present. In the United Kingdom, bTB has been difficult to eradicate despite long-term efforts. Co-infection has been proposed as one partial mechanism thwarting eradication.

Methods: A retrospective case-control study of 4,500 cattle herds in Northern Ireland, where serological testing of cattle for MAP, was undertaken (2004–2015). Blood samples were ELISA tested for MAP; infection of M. bovis was identified in herds by the comparative tuberculin test (CTT) and through post-mortem evidence of infection. Case-herds were those experiencing a confirmed bTB breakdown; control-herds were not experiencing a breakdown episode at the time of MAP testing. A second model included additional testing data of feces samples (culture and PCR results) to better inform herd MAP status. Multi-level hierarchical models were developed, controlling for selected confounders. A sensitivity analysis of the effect of MAP sample numbers per event and the prior timing of tuberculin-testing was undertaken.

Results: 45.2% (n = 250) of case observations and 36.0% (3,480) of control observations were positive to MAP by ELISA (45.8% and 36.4% when including ancillary fecal testing, respectively). Controlling for known confounders, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for this association was 1.339 (95%CI:1.085–1.652; including ancillary data aOR:1.356;95%CI:1.099–1.673). The size-effect of the association increased with the increasing number of samples per event used to assign herd MAP status (aOR:1.883 at >2 samples, to aOR:3.863 at >10 samples), however the estimated CI increased as N decreased. 41.7% of observations from chronic herds were MAP serology-positive and 32.2% from bTB free herds were MAP positive (aOR: 1.170; 95%ci: 0.481–2.849).

Discussion: Cattle herds experiencing a bTB breakdown were associated with increased risk of having a positive MAP status. Chronic herds tended to exhibit higher risk of a positive MAP status than bTB free herds, however there was less support for this association when controlling for repeated measures and confounding. MAP co-infection may be playing a role in the success of bTB eradiation schemes, however further studies are required to understand the mechanisms and to definitively establish causation.

Evaluation of national surveillance methods for detection of Irish dairy herds infected with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis

The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility and cost-effectiveness of a range of national surveillance methods for paratuberculosis in Irish dairy herds. We simulated alternative surveillance strategies applied to dairy cattle herds for the detection of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP)-infected herds (case-detection) or for estimation of confidence of herd freedom from infection (assurance testing). Strategies simulated included whole-herd milk or serum serology, serology on cull cows at slaughter, bulk milk tank serology, environmental testing, and pooled fecal testing. None of the strategies evaluated were ideal for widespread national case-detection surveillance. Herd testing with milk or serum ELISA or pooled fecal testing were the most effective methods currently available for detection of MAP-infected herds, with median herd sensitivity >60% and 100% herd specificity, although they are relatively expensive for widespread use. Environmental sampling shows promise as an alternative, with median herd sensitivity of 69%, but is also expensive unless samples can be pooled and requires further validation under Irish conditions. Bulk tank milk testing is the lowest cost option and may be useful for detecting high-prevalence herds but had median herd sensitivity <10% and positive predictive value of 85%. Cull cow sampling strategies were also lower cost but had median herd sensitivity <40% and herd positive predictive values of <50%, resulting in an increased number of test-positive herds, each of which requires follow-up herd testing to clarify status. Possible false-positive herd testing results associated with prior tuberculosis testing also presented logistical issues for both cull cow and bulk milk testing. Whole-herd milk or serum ELISA testing are currently the preferred testing strategies to estimate confidence of herd freedom from MAP in dairy herds due to the good technical performance and moderate cost of these strategies for individual herd testing. Cull cow serology and bulk tank milk sampling provide only minimal assurance value, with confidence of herd freedom increasing only minimally above the prior estimate. Different testing strategies should be considered when deciding on cost-effective approaches for case-detection compared with those used for building confidence of herd freedom (assurance testing) as part of a national program.

Modeling of alternative testing strategies to demonstrate freedom from Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis infection in test-negative dairy herds in the Republic of Ireland

In light of the various adverse effects of Johne's disease on animal productivity and the debate on the role of its causative organism, Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis, in the etiology of Crohn's disease, major dairy-producing countries around the world have implemented national control programs aimed at reducing the prevalence of this infection in cattle. A pilot control program was initiated in Ireland in 2013, with a key objective to provide farmers with test-negative dairy herds with tools and knowledge to increase their confidence of freedom over time. The aim of this study was to estimate the confidence of freedom obtained in test-negative Irish dairy herds over time with various sampling scenarios and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative scenarios for achieving an acceptable level of confidence of freedom in herds with no evidence of infection. A stochastic model was developed to simulate repeated annual testing of individual animals using ELISA and confirmatory assays over a period of 20 yr. Two scenarios modeled the current herd-screening options, whereas 14 alternative scenarios explored the effect of varying parameters from the current testing strategies, such as the frequency of testing, the eligibility criteria for selecting animals, the type of assay, the probability of introduction, and the assay sensitivity. Results showed that the current testing strategy with milk twice a year or serum once a year in all animals over 2 yr old provided the highest annual herd sensitivity, with a median value of 55%. Although the median confidence of freedom increased over time for all scenarios, the time required to reach 90 and 95% confidence of freedom was highly variable between scenarios. Under the testing scenario where serum tests were used once a year, the confidence of freedom reached 90% after 4 yr and 95% after 7 yr of testing. Some of the alternative scenarios achieved an acceptable level of confidence of freedom in a reasonable timeframe and at lesser cost than the current testing strategies. The results of this work are used to provide recommendations for the next phases of the program.