Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part I: an integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

Cluster and multivariate analysis to study the diffuse contamination of emerging per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in the Veneto Region plain (North-eastern Italy)

In recent years, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have emerged as major pollutants of concern. This study considered a real case of superficial and groundwater contamination caused by a set of 15 persistent, carcinogenic, and bioaccumulative compounds. The study area is the Veneto Region floodplain in Italy, where a huge contamination mainly caused by a persistent spill-over from a former chemical factory was discovered in 2013. The contamination path studied in 2013 followed mainly two directions: the first towards east, to the city of Vicenza, and the second following the course of Chiampo and Agno streams, southwards. To identify the major patterns of contamination, a Factor Analysis (PCA) in conjunction with a Cluster Analysis (CA) was performed. The reviewed dataset is composed by PFAS concentration values collected from 2013 to 2021 in groundwater, superficial waters, in natural sources, and in proximity to three industrial discharges, throughout a 3600 km² area. The CA results were cross-referenced with the water table interpolation, yielding a match between the groundwater flow directions and the observed patterns of the two main plumes. The persistence of pollutants was finally investigated by analyzing distances between the former chemical factory, an industrial wastewater collector which lies along Chiampo and Agno valleys that host residential and industrial areas, and the other sampling points collected in the dataset. The findings confirmed the importance of assessing anthropic background levels of contamination and highlighted the necessity to include the PFAS issue in a national health-based drinking water quality guideline.

Evapotranspiration Trends and Interactions in Light of the Anthropogenic Footprint and the Climate Crisis: A Review

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a parameter of major importance participating in both hydrological cycle and surface energy balance. Trends of ET are discussed along with the dependence of evaporation to key environmental variables. The evaporation paradox can be approached via natural phenomena aggravated by anthropogenic impact. ET appears as one of the most affected parameters by human activities. Complex hydrological processes are governed by local environmental conditions thus generalizations are difficult. However, in some settings, common hydrological interactions could be detected. Mediterranean climate regions (MCRs) appear vulnerability to the foreseen increase in ET, aggravated by precipitation shifting and air temperature warming, whereas in tropical forests its role is rather beneficial. ET determines groundwater level and quality. Groundwater level appeared to be a robust predictor of annual ET for peatlands in Southeast Asia. In semi-arid to arid areas, increases in ET have implications on water availability and soil salinization. ET-changes after a wildfire can be substantial for groundwater recharge if a canopy-loss threshold is surpassed. Those consequences are site-specific. Post-fire ET rebound seems climate and fire-severity-dependent. Overall, this qualitative structured review sets the foundations for interdisciplinary researchers and water managers to deploy ET as a means to address challenging environmental issues such as water availability.

Ecosystem Services Evaluation of Nature-Based Solutions with the Help of Citizen Scientists

Ecosystem services are increasingly being considered in decision-making with respect to mitigating future climate impacts. In this respect, there is a clear need to identify how nature-based solutions (NBS) can benefit specific ecosystem services, in particular within the complex spatial and temporal dynamics that characterize most river catchments. To capture these changes, ecosystem models require spatially explicit data that are often difficult to obtain for model development and validation. Citizen science allows for the participation of trained citizen volunteers in research or regulatory activities, resulting in increased data collection and increased participation of the general public in resource management. Despite the increasing experience in citizen science, these approaches have seldom been used in the modeling of provisioning ecosystem services. In the present study, we examined the temporal and spatial drivers in nutrient delivery in a major Italian river catchment and under different NBS scenarios. Information on climate, land use, soil and river conditions, as well as future climate scenarios, were used to explore future (2050) benefits of NBS on local and catchment scale nutrient loads and nutrient export. We estimate the benefits of a reduction in nitrogen and phosphorus export to the river and the receiving waters (Adriatic Sea) with respect to the costs associated with individual and combined NBS approaches related to river restoration and catchment reforestation.

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts in the North Adriatic Coastal Area. Part I: A Multi-Model Chain for the Definition of Climate Change Hazard Scenarios

Climate scenarios produce climate change-related information and data at a geographical scale generally not useful for coastal planners to study impacts locally. To provide a suitable characterization of climate-related hazards in the North Adriatic Sea coast, a model chain, with progressively higher resolution was developed and implemented. It includes Global and Regional Circulation Models representing atmospheric and oceanic dynamics for the global and sub-continental domains, and hydrodynamic/wave models useful to analyze physical impacts of sea-level rise and coastal erosion at a sub-national/local scale. The model chain, integrating multiple types of numerical models running at different spatial scales, provides information about spatial and temporal patterns of relevant hazard metrics (e.g., sea temperature, atmospheric pressure, wave height), usable to represent climate-induced events causing potential environmental or socio-economic damages. Furthermore, it allows the discussion of some methodological problems concerning the application of climate scenarios and their dynamical downscaling to the assessment of the impacts in coastal zones. Based on a balanced across all energy sources emission scenario, the multi-model chain applied in the North Adriatic Sea allowed to assess the change in frequency of exceedance of wave height and bottom stress critical thresholds for sediment motion in the future scenario (2070–2100) compared to the reference period 1960 to 1990. As discussed in the paper, such projections can be used to develop coastal erosion hazard scenarios, which can then be applied to risk assessment studies, providing valuable information to mainstream climate change adaptation in coastal zone management.

Alteration of freshwater ecosystem services under global change - A review focusing on the Po River basin (Italy) and the Red River basin (Vietnam)

Freshwater ecosystem services are negatively affected by factors such as climate change (e.g. changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise) and human interventions (e.g. agriculture practices, impoundment of dams, and land use/land cover change). Moreover, the potential synergic impacts of these factors on ecosystems are unevenly distributed, depending on geographical, climatic and socio-economic conditions. The paper aims to review the complex effects of climatic and non-climatic drivers on the supply and demand of freshwater ecosystem services. Based on the literature, we proposed a conceptual framework and a set of indicators for assessing the above-mentioned impacts due to global change, i.e. climate change and human activities. Then, we checked their applicability to the provisioning services of two well-known case studies, namely the Po River basin (Italy) and the Red River basin (Vietnam). To define the framework and the indicators, we selected the most relevant papers and reports; identified the major drivers and the most relevant services; and finally summarized the fundamental effects of these drivers on those services. We concluded that the proposed framework was applicable to the analyzed case studies, but it was not straightforward to consider all the indicators since ecosystem services were not explicitly considered as key assessment endpoints in these areas. Additionally, the supply of ecosystem services was found to draw much more attention than their demand. Finally, we highlighted the importance of defining a common and consistent terminology and classification of drivers, services, and effects to reduce mismatches among ecosystem services when conducting a risk assessment.

Water resources vulnerability assessment in the Adriatic Sea region: the case of Corfu Island

Cross-border water resources management and protection is a complicated task to achieve, lacking a common methodological framework. Especially in the Adriatic region, water used for drinking water supply purposes pass from many different countries, turning its management into a hard task to achieve. During the DRINKADRIA project, a common methodological framework has been developed, for efficient and effective cross-border water supply and resources management, taking into consideration different resources types (surface and groundwater) emphasizing in drinking water supply intake. The common methodology for water resources management is based on four pillars: climate characteristics and climate change, water resources availability, quality, and security. The present paper assesses both present and future vulnerability of water resources in the Adriatic region, with special focus on Corfu Island, Greece. The results showed that climate change is expected to impact negatively on water resources availability while at the same time, water demand is expected to increase. Water quality problems will be intensified especially due to land use changes and salt water intrusion. The analysis identified areas where water resources are more vulnerable, allowing decision makers develop management strategies.

To transfer or not to transfer? Evidence from validity and reliability tests for international transfers of non-market adaptation benefits in river basins

The attempt to design cost-effective adaptation policies incorporating non-market values to inhibit climate change impacts on water resources may increase the interest in applying the Benefit Transfer method. Benefit Transfer is a practical way to consider non-market values using functions and estimates acquired through primary valuation methods from other sites. Among the primary methods, Choice Experiments appear to particularly accommodate Benefit Transfer. Nevertheless, validity and reliability of international value transfers obtained from Choice Experiments have not been adequately examined. To this end, two identical Choice Experiments were conducted in Greece and Italy in the context of river services adaptation, testing validity and reliability of Benefit Transfer. The application of validity and reliability tests for different types of transfers is supportive for the use of Benefit Transfer, at least for the value transfer types. In particular the reliability of value transfer was higher when income adjustments were taken into account. Overall, Benefit Transfer can be attentively considered to evaluate cost-effective adaptation policies across countries experiencing similar climate change trends. The latter gains more importance given that an international Benefit Transfer setting as regards the non-market benefits of adaptation to climate change for river services is absent in the relevant literature.

Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers

Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems.

Handling preference heterogeneity for river services' adaptation to climate change

Climate projection models for the Southern Mediterranean basin indicate a strong drought trend. This pattern is anticipated to affect a range of services derived from river ecosystems and consecutively deteriorate the sectoral outputs and household welfare. This paper aims to evaluate local residents' adaptation preferences for the Piave River basin in Italy. A Discrete Choice Experiment accounting for adaptation scenarios of the Piave River services was conducted and the collected data were econometrically analyzed using Random Parameters Logit, Latent Class and Covariance Heterogeneity models. In terms of policy-relevant outcomes, the analysis indicates that respondents are willing to pay for adaptation plans. This attitude is reflected on the compensating surplus to sustain the current state of the Piave, which corresponds to a monthly contribution of 80€ per household. From an econometric point of view, the results show that it is not sufficient to take solely into account general heterogeneity, provided that distinct treatment of the heterogeneity produces rather different welfare estimates. This implies that analysts should examine a set of criteria when deciding on how to better approach heterogeneity for each empirical data set. Overall, non-market values of environmental services should be considered when formulating cost-effective adaptation measures for river systems undergoing climate change effects and appropriate heterogeneity approximation could render these values unbiased and accurate.

Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment

Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant outcomes from the described RRA application highlighted that potential climate change impacts will occur with different extension and magnitude in the case study area. Particularly, qualitative and quantitative impacts on groundwater will occur with more severe consequences in the wettest and in the driest scenario (respectively). Moreover, such impacts will likely have little direct effects on related ecosystems - croplands, forests and natural environments - lying along the spring area (about 12% of croplands and 2% of natural environments at risk) while more severe consequences will indirectly occur on natural and anthropic systems through the reduction in quality and quantity of water availability for agricultural and other uses (about 80% of agricultural areas and 27% of groundwater bodies at risk).