Quantifying faecal indicator organism hydrological transfer pathways and phases in agricultural catchments

Eliciting expert judgements to underpin our understanding of faecal indicator organism loss from septic tank systems

Septic tank systems (STS) in rural catchments represent a potential source of microbial pollution to watercourses; however, data concerning the risk of faecal indicator organism (FIO) export from STS to surface waters are scarce. In the absence of empirical data, elicitation of expert judgements can provide an alternative approach to aid understanding of FIO pollution risk from STS. Our study employed a structured elicitation process using the Sheffield Elicitation Framework to obtain expert judgements on the proportion of FIOs likely to be delivered from STS to watercourses, based on 36 scenarios combining: (i) septic tank effluent movement risk, driven by soil hydro-morphological characteristics; (ii) distance of septic tank to watercourse; and (iii) degree of slope. Experts used the tertile method to elicit a range of values representing their beliefs of the proportion of FIOs likely to be delivered to a watercourse for each scenario. The experts judged that 93 % of FIOs would likely be delivered from an STS to a watercourse under the highest risk scenario that combined (i) very high STS effluent movement risk, (ii) STS distance to watercourse <10 m, and (iii) a location on a steep slope with gradient >25 %. Under the lowest risk scenario, the proportion of FIOs reaching a watercourse would likely reduce to 5 %. Expert confidence was high for scenarios that represented extremes of risk, while uncertainty increased for scenarios depicting intermediate risk conditions. The behavioural aggregation process employed to obtain a consensus among the experts proved to be useful for highlighting both areas of strong consensus and high uncertainty. The latter therefore represent priorities for future empirical research to further improve our understanding of potential pollution risk from septic tanks and in turn enable better assessments of potential threats to water quality in rural catchments throughout the world where decentralised wastewater systems are common.

Riparian buffers: Disrupting the transport of E. coli from rural catchments to streams

High levels of E. coli and associated faecal microbes in waterways as a result of agricultural and residential land use can pose environmental, human health, and economic risks. This study aims to understand the impacts of land use, climatic variables, and riparian buffers on in-stream E. coli concentrations. Flow, temperature, and E. coli were monitored during three sampling campaigns within eleven independent catchments. These catchments have varying land use and extents of riparian buffer coverage. Results showed that catchments with predominantly agricultural and residential land uses (average = 349.7 MPN/100 mL) had higher E. coli concentrations than predominantly forested catchments (average = 111.8 MPN/100 mL). However, there were no statistically significant differences in E. coli concentrations between the agricultural and residential land uses. Riparian buffers appear to reduce E. coli concentrations in streams, as indicated by significant negative correlations between in-stream E. coli concentrations with the riparian buffer areal coverage (Pearson's r = -0.95, Spearman's ρ = -0.90) and the ratio of buffer length to stream length (Pearson's r = -0.87, Spearman's ρ = -0.90). We find that riparian buffers potentially disrupt transport pathways that govern E. coli movement, which in-turn can affect the concentration-discharge relationship. This reinforces the importance of protecting and restoring riparian buffers along drainage lines in agricultural and rural-residential catchments to improve downstream microbial water quality.

Flow Cytometry and Fecal Indicator Bacteria Analyses for Fingerprinting Microbial Pollution in Karst Aquifer Systems

Microbial pollution of aquifers is a persistent water quality problem globally which poses significant risks to public health. Karst aquifer systems are exceptionally vulnerable to pollution from fecal contamination sources as a result of rapid recharge of water from the surface via discrete pathways linked to highly conductive, solutionally enlarged conduits alongside strong aquifer heterogeneity. Consequently, rapid changes in microbial water quality, which are difficult to monitor with expensive and time-consuming conventional microbiological methods, are a major concern in karst environments. This study examined flow cytometric (FCM) fingerprinting of bacterial cells in groundwater together with fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) at nine separate karst springs of varying catchment size over a 14 month period in order to assess whether such a technique can provide faster and more descriptive information about microbial pollution through such karst aquifer systems. Moreover, the data have also been evaluated with respect to the potential of using turbidity as an easy-to-measure proxy indicator of microbial pollution in a novel way. We argue that FCM provides additional data from which enhanced insights into fecal pollution sources and its fate and transport in such karst catchments can be gained. We also present valuable new information on the potential and limitations of turbidity as an indicator of fecal groundwater contamination in karst. FCM has the potential to become a more widely used tool in the field of contaminant hydrogeology.

Chronic urban hotspots and agricultural drainage drive microbial pollution of karst water resources in rural developing regions

Contamination of surface and groundwater systems with human and animal faecal matter leads to exposure of reliant populations to disease causing micro-organisms. This exposure route remains a major cause of infection and mortality in developing countries, particularly rural regions. To meet the UN's sustainable development goal 6: Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all, we need to identify the key controls on faecal contamination across relevant settings. We conducted a high-resolution spatial study of E. coli concentration in catchment drainage waters over 6 months in a mixed land-use catchment in the extensive karst region extending across impoverished southwest China. Using a mixed effects modelling framework, we tested how land-use, karst hydrology, antecedent meteorological conditions, agricultural cycles, hydrochemistry, and position in the catchment system affected E. coli concentrations. Land-use was the best predictor of faecal contamination levels. Sites in urban areas were chronically highly contaminated, but water draining from agricultural land was also consistently contaminated and there was a catchment wide pulse of higher E. coli concentrations, turbidity, and discharge during paddy field drainage. E. coli concentration increased with increasing antecedent rainfall across all land-use types and compartments of the karst hydrological system (underground and surface waters), but decreased with increasing pH. This is interpreted to be a result of processes affecting pH, such as water residence time, rather than the direct effect of pH on E. coli survival. Improved containment and treatment of human waste in areas of higher population density would likely reduce contamination hotspots, and further research is needed to identify the nature and distribution of sources in agricultural land.

Rainfall-driven E. coli transfer to the stream-conduit network observed through increasing spatial scales in mixed land-use paddy farming karst terrain

Karst aquifers have distinctive hydrology and supply 25% of the world's population with drinking water, making them a critical geological setting for understanding and managing microbial water pollution. Rainfall causes elevated concentrations and loading of faecal microorganisms, e.g. E. coli, in catchment surface and groundwater systems, increasing the risk of human exposure to faecally-contaminated water. However, effective management of microbial water quality in complex karst catchments is constrained by limited understanding of E. coli - discharge responses to rainfall. We analysed how rainfall events of varying magnitude (2.4-100 mm) control E. coli-discharge dynamics at increasing spatial scales in a mixed land-use karst catchment in southwest China. During the wet season, hourly water sampling was undertaken throughout five storm events to characterise in high detail E. coli emergence with resulting flow across multiple sites of varying catchment area, stream order, and land-use. E. coli concentration was found to increase by 1-3 orders of magnitude following rainfall events. Maximum E. coli concentration and speed of E. coli recession were influenced by rainfall (amount, intensity), timing of agricultural activities, and position in the hydrological system. For high intensity events ∼90% of the cumulative E. coli export occurred within 48 h. E. coli concentration increased with increasing discharge at all sites. E. coli concentration at low discharge was higher in the headwaters than at the catchment outlet, while the rate of increase in E. coli concentration with increasing discharge appears to follow the opposite trend, being higher at the catchment outlet than the headwaters. This was attributed to the decreasing flow path gradient and increasing degree of development of the fissure network, but further event monitoring at varying catchment scales is required to confirm this relationship. The results provide novel insight into how rainfall characteristics combine with land-use and catchment hydrology to control E. coli export in karst landscapes.

The Environmental Impact of Cattle Access to Watercourses: A Review

The degradation of freshwater resources and loss of freshwater biodiversity by anthropogenic activities, including agriculture, are of major global concern. Together with diffuse pollutants, point sources, such as where cattle have direct access to riparian margins and watercourses, can potentially present significant environmental challenges. These can include impacts on stream morphology, increased sedimentation, nutrient additions, microbial contamination, and impacts on aquatic biota. Mitigation measures aimed at reducing these frequently include reducing the amount of time cattle spend in riparian margins and watercourses. This is often accomplished through the provision of an alternative water supply and grazing management, or even cattle exclusion measures. Although a number of studies refer to potential negative impacts, there has been little attempt to review previous research on this topic. The key aim of this paper is to collate and review these disparate studies, as well as those relating to the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Although it is difficult to draw generalizations from studies due to the inherent variability between and within catchments, evidence pertaining to impacts in relation to sedimentation, pathogens, and riparian margin vegetation were strong. Conclusions in relation to impacts on stream morphology and nutrient parameters were less clear, whereas studies on responses of macroinvertebrate communities were particularly variable, with differences due to cattle access difficult to separate from catchment scale effects. A greater understanding of the impact of cattle access on watercourses under varying conditions will help inform policymakers on the cost effectiveness of existing management criteria and will help in revising existing measures.

The application of high temporal resolution data in river catchment modelling and management strategies

Modelling changes in river water quality, and by extension developing river management strategies, has historically been reliant on empirical data collected at relatively low temporal resolutions. With access to data collected at higher temporal resolutions, this study investigated how these new dataset types could be employed to assess the precision and accuracy of two phosphorus (P) load apportionment models (LAMs) developed on lower resolution empirical data. Predictions were made of point and diffuse sources of P across ten different sampling scenarios. Sampling resolution ranged from hourly to monthly through the use of 2000 newly created datasets from high frequency P and discharge data collected from a eutrophic river draining a 9.48 km² catchment. Outputs from the two LAMs were found to differ significantly in the P load apportionment (51.4% versus 4.6% from point sources) with reducing precision and increasing bias as sampling frequency decreased. Residual analysis identified a large deviation from observed data at high flows. This deviation affected the apportionment of P from diffuse sources in particular. The study demonstrated the potential problems in developing empirical models such as LAMs based on temporally relatively poorly-resolved data (the level of resolution that is available for the majority of catchments). When these models are applied ad hoc and outside an expert modelling framework using extant datasets of lower resolution, interpretations of their outputs could potentially reduce the effectiveness of management decisions aimed at improving water quality.

A quantitative microbial risk assessment model for total coliforms and E. coli in surface runoff following application of biosolids to grassland

In Ireland, the land application of biosolids is the preferred option of disposing of municipal sewage waste. Biosolids provide nutrients in the form of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and increases organic matter. It is also an economic way for a country to dispose of its municipal waste. However, biosolids may potentially contain a wide range of pathogens, and following rainfall events, may be transported in surface runoff and pose a potential risk to human health. Thus, a quantitative risk assessment model was developed to estimate potential pathogens in surface water and the environmental fate of the pathogens following dilution, residence time in a stream, die-off rate, drinking water treatment and human exposure. Surface runoff water quality data was provided by project partners. Three types of biosolids, anaerobically digested (AD), lime stabilised (LS), and thermally dried (TD)) were applied on micro plots. Rainfall was simulated at three time intervals (24, 48 and 360 h) following land application. It was assumed that this water entered a nearby stream and was directly abstracted for drinking water. Consumption data for drinking water and body weight was obtained from an Irish study and assigned distributions. Two dose response models for probability of illness were considered for total and faecal coliform exposure incorporating two different exposure scenarios (healthy populations and immuno-compromised populations). The simulated annual risk of illness for healthy populations was below the US EPA and World Health Organisation tolerable level of risk (10^-4 and 10^-6, respectively). However, immuno-compromised populations may still be at risk as levels were greater than the tolerable level of risk for that subpopulation. The sensitivity analysis highlighted the importance of residence time in a stream on the bacterial die-off rate.

Incidental nutrient transfers: Assessing critical times in agricultural catchments using high-resolution data

Managing incidental losses associated with liquid slurry applications during closed periods has significant cost and policy implications and the environmental data required to review such a measure are difficult to capture due to storm dependencies. Over four years (2010-2014) in five intensive agricultural catchments, this study used high-resolution total and total reactive phosphorus (TP and TRP), total oxidised nitrogen (TON) and suspended sediment (SS) concentrations with river discharge data to investigate the magnitude and timing of nutrient losses. A large dataset of storm events (defined as 90th percentile discharges), and associated flow-weighted mean (FWM) nutrient concentrations and TP/SS ratios, was used to indicate when losses were indicative of residual or incidental nutrient transfers. The beginning of the slurry closed period was reflective of incidental and residual transfers with high storm FWM P (TP and TRP) concentrations, with some catchments also showing elevated storm TP:SS ratios. This pattern diminished at the end of the closed period in all catchments. Total oxidised N behaved similarly to P during storms in the poorly drained catchments and revealed a long lag time in other catchments. Low storm FWM P concentrations and TP:SS ratios during the weeks following the closed period suggests that nutrients either weren't applied during this time (best times chosen) or that they were applied to less risky areas (best places chosen). For other periods such as late autumn and during wet summers, where storm FWM P concentrations and TP:SS ratios were high, it is recommended that an augmentation of farmer knowledge of soil drainage characteristics with local and detailed current and forecast soil moisture conditions will help to strengthen existing regulatory frameworks to avoid storm driven incidental nutrient transfers.

Predicting microbial water quality with models: Over-arching questions for managing risk in agricultural catchments

The application of models to predict concentrations of faecal indicator organisms (FIOs) in environmental systems plays an important role for guiding decision-making associated with the management of microbial water quality. In recent years there has been an increasing demand by policy-makers for models to help inform FIO dynamics in order to prioritise efforts for environmental and human-health protection. However, given the limited evidence-base on which FIO models are built relative to other agricultural pollutants (e.g. nutrients) it is imperative that the end-user expectations of FIO models are appropriately managed. In response, this commentary highlights four over-arching questions associated with: (i) model purpose; (ii) modelling approach; (iii) data availability; and (iv) model application, that must be considered as part of good practice prior to the deployment of any modelling approach to predict FIO behaviour in catchment systems. A series of short and longer-term research priorities are proposed in response to these questions in order to promote better model deployment in the field of catchment microbial dynamics.