Vulnerability of forest vegetation to anthropogenic climate change in China

Low functional redundancy revealed high vulnerability of the subtropical evergreen broadleaved forests to environmental change

Anthropogenic-induced environmental changes threaten forest ecosystems by reducing their biodiversity and adaptive capacity. Understanding the sensitivity of ecosystem function to loss of diversity is vital in designing conservation strategies and maintaining the resilience of forest ecosystems in a changing world. Here, based on unique combinations of ten functional traits (termed as functional entities; FEs), we quantified the metrics of functional redundancy (FR) and functional vulnerability (FV) in 250 forest plots across five locations in subtropical evergreen broadleaved forests. We then examined the potential impacts of species loss on functional diversity in subtropical forest communities along environmental gradients (climate and soil). Results showed that the subtropical forests displayed a low level of functional redundancy (FR < 2). Over 75 % of the FEs in these subtropical forest communities were composed of only one species, with rare species emerging as pivotal contributors to these vulnerable FEs. The number of FEs and functional redundancy both increased with the rise in species richness, but functional vulnerability decreased with increasing species richness. Climatic factors, especially mean diurnal range, played crucial roles in determining the functions that the forest ecosystem delivers. Under variable temperature conditions, species in each plot were packed into a few FEs, leading to higher functional redundancy and lower functional vulnerability. These results highlighted that rare species contribute significantly to ecosystem functions and the highly diverse subtropical forest communities could show more insurance effects against species loss under stressful environmental conditions.

Enhancing vulnerability assessment through spatially explicit modeling of mountain social-ecological systems exposed to multiple environmental hazards

The evaluation of the vulnerability of coupled socio-ecological systems is critical for addressing and preventing the adverse impacts of various environmental hazards and devising strategies for climate change adaptation. The initial step in vulnerability assessment involves exposure assessment, which entails quantifying and mapping the risks posed by multiple environmental hazards, thereby offering valuable insights for the implementation of vulnerability assessment methodologies. Consequently, this study sought to model the exposure of coupled social-ecological systems in mountainous regions to various environmental hazards. By a set of socio-economic, climatic, geospatial, hydrological, and demographic data, as well as satellite imagery, and examining 11 hazards, including droughts, pests, dust storms, winds, extreme temperatures, evapotranspiration, landslides, floods, wildfires, and social vulnerability, this research employed machine learning (ML) techniques and the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP). Expert opinions were utilized to guide hazard weighting and calculate the exposure index (EI). Through the precise spatial mapping of EI variations across the socio-ecological systems in mountainous areas, this investigation provides insights into vulnerability to multiple environmental hazards, thereby laying the groundwork for future endeavors in supporting national-level vulnerability assessments aimed at fostering sustainable environments. The findings reveal that social vulnerability and pests receive the highest weighting, while floods and landslides are ranked lower. All hazards demonstrate significant correlations with the EI, with droughts exhibiting the strongest correlation (r > 0.81). Spatial analysis indicates a north-south gradient in forest exposure, with southern regions showing higher exposure hotspots (EI 29.08) compared to northern areas (EI 10.60). Validation based on Area Under Curve (AUC) and Consistency Rate (CR) in FAHP demonstrates robustness, with AUC values exceeding 0.78 and CR values below 0.1. Considering the anticipated intensification of hazards, management strategies should prioritize reducing social vulnerability, restore degraded areas using drought-resistant species, combat pests, and mitigate desertification. By integrating multidisciplinary data and expert opinions, this research contributes to informed decision-making regarding sustainable forest management and climate resilience in mountain ecosystems.

Past and projected future patterns of fractional vegetation coverage in China

With the intensifying climate change and the strengthening ecosystem management, quantifying the past and predicting the future influence of these two factors on vegetation change patterns in China need to be analyzed urgently. By constructing a framework model to accurately identify fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) change patterns, we found that FVC in China from 1982 to 2018 mainly showed linear increase (29.5 %) or Gaussian decrease (27.4 %). FVC variation was mainly affected by soil moisture in the Qi-North region and by vapor pressure deficit in other regions. The influence of environmental change on FVC, except for Yang-Qi region in the southwest (-2.0 %), played a positive role, and weakened from the middle (Hu-Yang region: 2.7 %) to the northwest (Qi-North region: 2.4 %) to the east (Hu-East region: 0.8 %). Based on five machine learning algorithms, it was predicted that under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, including SSP126、SSP245、SSP370、SSP585) from 2019 to 2060, FVC would maintain an upward trend, except for the east, where FVC would rapidly decline after 2039. FVC in the eastern region experienced a transition from past growth to future decline, suggesting that the focus of future ecosystem management should be on this region.

Analysis of the Potential Range of Mountain Pine-Broadleaf Ecotone Forests and Its Changes under Moderate and Strong Climate Change in the 21st Century

Climatic changes have a significant impact on the composition and distribution of forests, especially on ecotone ones. In the Southern Ural, pine-broadleaf ecotone forests were widespread during the early Holocene time, but now have persisted as relic plant communities. This study aimed to analyze the current potential range and to model changes in habitat suitability of relic pine-broadleaf ecotone forests of the suballiance Tilio-Pinenion under scenarios of moderate (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) climate change. For modelling, we used MaxEnt software with the predictors being climate variables from CHELSA Bioclim, the global digital soil mapping system SoilGrids and the digital elevation model. In the Southern and Middle Urals, climate change is expected to increase the areas with suitable habitat conditions of these forests by the middle of the 21st century and decrease them in the second half of the century. By the middle of the 21st century, the eastern range boundary of these forests will shift eastward due to the penetration of broad-leaved tree species into coniferous forests of the Southern Ural. In the second half of the century, on the contrary, it is expected that climate aridization will again shift the potential range border of these forests to the west due to their gradual replacement by hemiboreal coniferous forests. The relationship between the floristic composition of pine-broadleaf forests and habitat suitability was identified. In low and medium habitat suitability, pine-broadleaf forests contain more nemoral species characteristic of deciduous forests of the temperate zone, and can be replaced by broadleaf forests after thinning and removal of pine. In the Volga Upland, suitable habitats are occupied by pine-broadleaf forests of the vicariant suballiance Querco robori-Tilienion cordatae. Projected climatic changes will have a significant impact on these ecotone forests, which remained completely unaltered for a long time.

Quantifying the spatial nonstationary response of influencing factors on ecosystem health based on the geographical weighted regression (GWR) model: an example in Inner Mongolia, China, from 1995 to 2020

The identification of ecosystem health and its influencing factors is crucial to the sustainable management of ecosystems and ecosystem restoration. Although numerous studies on ecosystem health have been carried out from different perspectives, few studies have systematically investigated the spatiotemporal heterogeneity between ecosystem health and its influencing factors. Considering this gap, the spatial relationships between ecosystem health and its factors concerning climate, socioeconomic, and natural resource endowment at the county level were estimated based on a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The spatiotemporal distribution pattern and driving mechanism of ecosystem health were systematically analysed. The results showed the following: (1) the ecosystem health level in Inner Mongolia spatially increases from northwest to southeast, displaying notable global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial aggregation. (2) The factors influencing ecosystem health exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity. Annual average precipitation (AMP) and biodiversity (BI) are positively correlated with ecosystem health, and annual average temperature (AMT) and land use intensity (LUI) are estimated to be negatively correlated with ecosystem health. (3) Annual average precipitation (AMP) significantly improves ecosystem health, whereas annual average temperature (AMT) significantly worsens eco-health in the eastern and northern regions. LUI negatively impacts ecosystem health in western counties (such as Alxa, Ordos, and Baynnur). This study contributes to extending our understanding of ecosystem health depending on spatial scale and can inform decision-makers about how to control various influencing factors to improve the local ecology under local conditions. Finally, this study also proposes some relevant policy suggestions and provides effective ecosystem preservation and management support in Inner Mongolia.

Horizontal Distribution Characteristics and Environmental Factors of Shrubland Species Diversity in Hainan Island, China

Tropical forests play a vital role in preserving world biodiversity and supporting ecological services. Moreover, the spatial distribution of species diversity and its causes are one of the core issues in community ecology. Therefore, the aim of this study was to explore the horizontal distribution characteristics of shrub community diversity in the tropical region of Hainan and reveal the relationship between species diversity and environmental factors under anthropogenic disturbances. Based on a survey of 39 shrubland plots, we evaluated shrub community diversity by calculating Hill number and Pielou evenness index. Regression analysis was employed to determine the horizontal distribution pattern, and Pearson correlation and redundancy analysis were applied to reveal the relationship between species diversity and environmental factors. The results reveal that species richness increased from west to east and the horizontal distribution of shrubland species diversity in Hainan was largely determined by rainfall and edaphic factors and not by topographic factors. Rainfall factors were the most influential. Although there was a significant human disturbance in Hainan shrublands, environmental factors were still influencing the distribution of these shrublands, and there was a lower shrub diversity in areas with poor moisture conditions, which should be studied more. Our results are of great significance to the study of tropical vegetation and regional biodiversity conservation.

Estimating the Applicability of NDVI and SIF to Gross Primary Productivity and Grain-Yield Monitoring in China

Vegetation, a key intermediary linking water, the atmosphere, and the ground, performs extremely important functions in nature and for our existence. Although satellite-based remote-sensing technologies have become important for monitoring vegetation dynamics, selecting the correct remote-sensing vegetation indicator has become paramount for such investigations. This study investigated the consistencies between a photosynthetic activity index (the solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) indicator) and the traditional vegetation index (the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)) among different land-cover types and in different seasons and explored the applicability of NDVI and SIF in different cases by comparing their performances in gross primary production (GPP) and grain-yield-monitoring applications. The vegetation cover and photosynthesis showed decreasing trends, which were mainly concentrated in northern Xinjiang and part of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau; a decreasing trend was also identified in a small part of Northeast China. The correlations between NDVI and SIF were strong for all land-cover types except evergreen needleleaf forests and evergreen broadleaf forests. Compared with NDVI, SIF had some advantages when monitoring the GPP and grain yields among different land-cover types. For example, SIF could capture the effects of drought on GPP and grain yields better than NDVI. To summarize, as the temporal extent of the available SIF data is extended, SIF will certainly perform increasingly wide applications in agricultural-management research that is closely related to GPP and grain-yield monitoring.

A Drought Index: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Irrigation Index

Drought has had an increasingly serious impact on humans with global climate change. The drought index is an important indicator used to understand and assess different types of droughts. At present, many drought indexes do not sufficiently consider human activity factors. This study presents a modified drought index and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration irrigation index (SPEII), considering the human activity of irrigation that is based on the theory of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). This study aims to compare the modified drought index (SPEII) and ·SPEI and self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) in the major crop-producing areas and use SPEII to evaluate the possible future drought characteristics based on CMIP5 Model. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to assess the relevance between drought indexes (SPEII, SPEI, and scPDSI) and vegetation dynamics. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used to represent the vegetation dynamics change. The results showed that SPEII had better performance than the SPEI and scPDSI in monitoring cropland vegetation drought, especially in cropland areas with high irrigation. The winter wheat growth period of the SPEII had better performance than that of summer maize in croplands with higher irrigation levels on the North China Plain (NCP) and Loess Plateau (LP). In general, future drought on the NCP and LP showed small changes compared with the base period (2001–2007). The drought intensity of the winter wheat growth period showed an increasing and steady trend in 2020–2080 under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario on the NCP and LP; additionally, the severe drought frequency in the central LP showed an increasing trend between 2020 and 2059. Therefore, the SPEII can be more suitable for analyzing and evaluating drought conditions in a large area of irrigated cropland and to assess the impacts of climate change on vegetation.

NDVI-Based Greening of Alpine Steppe and Its Relationships with Climatic Change and Grazing Intensity in the Southwestern Tibetan Plateau

Alpine vegetation on the Southwestern Tibetan Plateau (SWTP) is sensitive and vulnerable to climate change and human activities. Climate warming and human actions (mainly ecological restoration, social-economic development, and grazing) have already caused the degradation of alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) to some extent. However, it remains unclear how human activities (mainly grazing) have regulated vegetation variation under climate change and ecological restoration since 2000. This study used the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and social statistic data to explore the spatiotemporal changes and the relationship between the NDVI and climatic change, human activities, and grazing intensity. The results revealed that the NDVI increased by 0.006/10a from 2000 to 2020. Significant greening, mainly distributed in Rikaze, with partial browning, has been found in the SWTP. The correlation analysis results showed that precipitation is the most critical factor affecting the spatial distribution of NDVI, and the NDVI is correlated positively with temperature and precipitation in most parts of the SWTP. We found that climate change and human activities co-affected the vegetation change in the SWTP, and human activities leading to vegetation greening since 2000. The NDVI and grazing intensity were mainly negatively correlated, and the grazing caused vegetation degradation to some extent. This study provides practical support for grassland use, grazing management, ecological restoration, and regional sustainable development for the TP and similar alpine areas.

Forest Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Review for Future Research Framework

Climate change has caused vulnerability not only to the forest ecosystem but also to forest-dependent communities. Therefore, its management is essential to increase forest ecosystem services and reduce vulnerability to climate change using an integrated approach. Although many scientific studies examined climate change impact on forest ecosystems, forest vulnerability assessment, including forest sensitivity, adaptability, sustainability and effective management was found to be scant in the existing literature. Through a systematic review from 1990 to 2019, this paper examined forest vulnerability to climate change and its management practices. In this paper, descriptive, mechanism and thematic analyses were carried out to analyze the state of existing research, in order to understand the concept of vulnerability arising from climate change and forest management issues. The present study proposed a framework for integrated forest assessment and management for addressing such issues in future research. The conversion of forest land into other land uses, forest fragmentation, forest disturbance and the effects of climate change on the forest ecosystem are the existing problems. Forest vulnerability, effective adaptation to forest ecosystems and long-term sustainability are priority areas for future research. This study also calls for undertaking researchers at a local scale to involve communities for the effective management of forest ecosystems.

Carbon Storage in Biomass and Soil after Mountain Landscape Restoration: Pinus nigra and Picea abies Plantations in the Hyrcanian Region

Forest plantations have significantly more potential for carbon storage than non-forested areas. In this study, the amount of carbon stored in the biomass (trees, shrubs, herb, litter, and deadwood) and soil of 25-year-old plantations with P. nigra and P. abies species was measured and compared with the non-planted adjacent area (control) in a mountainous region of northern Iran. The results show that the amount of carbon stored in the biomass of P. nigra and P. abies plantations was 4.4 and 3.3 times higher than the value of the control (4.59 C Mg ha−1), respectively. In addition, the amount of carbon stored in soil was 1.5 and 1.2 times higher than the value at the control site (47.91 C Mg ha−1), respectively. Of the total carbon stored in the biomass of plantations, the highest level was observed in trees (86.5–88.5%), followed by shrubs (4.6–6.5%), litter (2.7–2.8%), the herbaceous layer (1.8–2.5%), and deadwood (1.7–2.4%), while 45.5%, 34.6%, 10.8%, 5.8%, and 3.3% of the total carbon stored in the biomass of the control site were in shrubs, trees, the herbaceous layer, litter, and deadwood, respectively. The soil carbon sequestration rate (SCSR) in soil depths of 0–10 and 10–20 cm was 0.46 and 0.44 C Mg ha−1 yr−1 in the P. nigra plantation and 0.15 and 0.23 C Mg ha−1 yr−1 in the P. abies plantation, respectively. According to the results, we conclude that the restoration of the landscape by tree plantation has a substantially determining impact on the acceleration of carbon sequestration.

Household Livelihood Vulnerability to Climate Change in West China

Climate change disproportionately affects natural resource-dependent communities in the ecologically vulnerable regions of western China. This study used the household livelihood vulnerability index under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (HLV-IPCC) to assess vulnerability. Data were collected from 823 households in Ningxia, Gansu, Guangxi, and Yunnan provinces, these being ecologically vulnerable regions in China. With a composite HLVI-IPCC and multiple regression model, the factors that affect households’ adaptive capability to HLVI-IPCC was estimated. Results indicate that Ningxia is the most vulnerable community, while Guangxi is the least vulnerable community across all indices. Moreover, Gansu has the heaviest sensitivity and exposure to climate change, whereas Ningxia has the highest adaptive capability to climate change. In addition, the age of household head and distance of the home to the town center had significant negative impacts on households’ adaptive capacity to HLVI-IPCC. The results also suggest that the HLVI assessment can provide an effective tool for local authorities to formulate prioritizing strategies with promoting climate-resilient development and increasing long-term adaptive capacity.

Regeneration and Endogenous Phytohormone Responses to High-Temperature Stress Drive Recruitment Success in Hemiepiphytic Fig Species

Exposure to high-temperature stress (HTS) during early regeneration in plants can profoundly shape seed germination, seedling growth, and development, thereby providing stress resilience. In this study, we assessed how the timing of HTS, which was implemented as 8 h in 40°C, could affect the early regeneration stages and phytohormone concentration of four hemiepiphytic (Hs) and four non-hemiepiphytic (NHs) Ficus species. Their seed germination, seedling emergence, and seedling survival probabilities and the concentrations of three endogenous phytohormones, abscisic acid (ABA), indole-3-acetic acid (IAA), and salicylic acid (SA) were assessed after HTS imposed during imbibition, germination, and emergence. In both groups, seeds were more sensitive to HTS in the early regeneration process; stress experienced during imbibition affected emergence and survival, and stress experienced during germination affected subsequent emergence. There was no effect from HTS when received after emergence. Survival was highest in hemiepiphytes regardless of the HTS treatment. The phytohormones showed growth form- and regeneration stage-specific responses to HTS. Due to the HTS treatment, both SA and ABA levels decreased in non-hemiepiphytes during imbibition and germination; during germination, IAA increased in hemiepiphytes but was reduced in non-hemiepiphytes. Due to the HTS treatment experienced during emergence ABA and IAA concentrations were greater for hemiepiphytes but an opposite effect was seen in the two growth forms for the SA concentration. Our study showed that the two growth forms have different strategies for regulating their growth and development in the early regeneration stages in order to respond to HTS. The ability to respond to HTS is an ecologically important functional trait that allows plant species to appropriately time their seed germination and seedling development. Flexibility in modulating species regeneration in response to HTS in these subtropical and tropical Ficus species could provide greater community resilience under climate change.

Comparing global and local maps of the Caribbean pine forests of Andros, home of the critically endangered Bahama Oriole

Forest loss is occurring at alarming rates across the globe. The pine rockland forests of Andros, The Bahamas, likely represent some of the largest stands of Bahamian subspecies of Caribbean pine in the world. Given the unique species that inhabit these pine forests, such as the endemic and critically endangered Bahama Oriole, monitoring habitats on Andros is crucial to inform conservation planning. We developed a 2019 land classification map to assess the status of nine terrestrial habitats on Andros. Our Random Forest classification model predicted habitat classes with high overall accuracy. Caribbean pine was the dominant land class making up roughly one-third of the total terrestrial area. Whereas much of the pine forest area was found as small patches, most were close to other patches of pine suggesting isolation of forest patches is low. We compared our known intact forest areas to recent forest loss identified by the Hansen et al. Global Forest Change product and assessed areas of habitat disturbance in high-resolution imagery. Our results suggest that this global map overpredicted forest loss on Andros. The small degree of true forest loss on Andros was driven mostly by anthropogenic activity. A cross-tabulation of the Hansen forest loss with fire data showed that understory fires were frequently associated with falsely classified deforestation. Given the threats of climate change to this open forest type-intensifying fire regimes, strengthening hurricanes, and sea level rise-monitoring changes in open forest extent is a critical task across the Caribbean region and the world.

The contribution of forest and grassland change was greater than that of cropland in human-induced vegetation greening in China, especially in regions with high climate variability

Vegetation growth is strongly affected by both human activities and climate change. The contribution of land use change caused by human activities to vegetation growth may correlate with climate change, whereas climate variability has often been overlooked. To quantify vegetation growth during 1982-2017 in China, we used the Leaf Area Index (LAI). We also introduced climate variability to divide climate regimes using assignment entropy and built a relative greening performance indicator to identify the contribution of land use (forest, grassland, and cropland) changes to vegetation growth. The results showed that climate variability increased based on precipitation classification, and the regions with low and high climate variability accounted for 33.38%-34.41% and 12.18%-32.38% of China before and after 2000, respectively. Areas of vegetation growth affected by human activities accounted for 7.71%-19.31% and were located mainly in low variability regimes. The contribution of forest and grassland change was greater than that of cropland to vegetation greening in China, especially in high variability regimes. However, the contribution of cropland change was greater than that of forest and grassland in low variability regimes. These results imply the importance of forest and grassland change in human-induced vegetation greening, and this information can provide guidance for regional ecosystem management.

Quantifying the Variability of Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability in the Largest Water Tower Region Globally

Forests are critical ecosystems for environmental regulation and ecological security maintenance, especially at high altitudes that exhibit sensitivity to climate change and human activities. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau—the world’s largest water tower region—has been breeding many large rivers in Asia where forests play important roles in water regulation and water quality improvement. However, the vulnerability of these forest ecosystems at the regional scale is still largely unknown. Therefore, the aim of this research is to quantitatively assess the temporal–spatial variability of forest vulnerability on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to illustrate the capacity of forests to withstand disturbances. Geographic information system (GIS) and the spatial principal component analysis (SPCA) were used to develop a forest vulnerable index (FVI) to assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystems. This research incorporates 15 factors covering the natural context, environmental disturbances, and socioeconomic impact. Results indicate that the measure of vulnerability was unevenly distributed spatially across the study area, and the whole trend has intensified since 2000. The three factors that contribute the most to the vulnerability of natural contexts, environmental disturbances, and human impacts are slope aspect, landslides, and the distance to the farmland, respectively. The vulnerability is higher in forest areas with lower altitudes, steeper slopes, and southerly directions. These evaluation results can be helpful for forest management in high altitude water tower regions in the forms of forest conservation or restoration planning and implementation towards sustainable development goals.

How Large-Scale Anthropogenic Activities Influence Vegetation Cover Change in China? A Review

Vegetation cover plays a key role in terrestrial ecosystem; therefore, it is important for researchers to investigate the variation and influencing factors of vegetation cover. China has experienced a large-scale vegetation cover change in recent years. We summarized the literature of vegetation cover change and revealed how large-scale anthropogenic activities influence vegetation cover change in China. Afforestation and intensification of cropland played a key role in large-scale greening. Urbanization showed a “U” shape to influence vegetation cover change. Mining and reclamation, land abandonment and land consolidation, and regional natural protection all had a unique influence on the change of vegetation cover. Indeed, the large-scale vegetation cover change was caused by interaction of anthropogenic factors and part human-driven climate change. Anthropogenic factors influenced climate change to indirectly alter the condition of plant growth. Interaction between climate change and human activities influence on vegetation cover still needs to be further investigated in the future.

An updated Vegetation Map of China (1:1000000)

Vegetation maps are important sources of information for biodiversity conservation, ecological studies, vegetation management and restoration, and national strategic decision making. The current Vegetation Map of China (1:1000000) was generated by a team of more than 250 scientists in an effort that lasted over 20 years starting in the 1980s. However, the vegetation distribution of China has experienced drastic changes during the rapid development of China in the last three decades, and it urgently needs to be updated to better represent the distribution of current vegetation types. Here, we describe the process of updating the Vegetation Map of China (1:1000000) generated in the 1980s using a "crowdsourcing-change detection-classification-expert knowledge" vegetation mapping strategy. A total of 203,024 field samples were collected, and 50 taxonomists were involved in the updating process. The resulting updated map has 12 vegetation type groups, 55 vegetation types/subtypes, and 866 vegetation formation/sub-formation types. The overall accuracy and kappa coefficient of the updated map are 64.8% and 0.52 at the vegetation type group level, 61% and 0.55 at the vegetation type/subtype level and 40% and 0.38 at the vegetation formation/sub-formation level. When compared to the original map, the updated map showed that 3.3 million km² of vegetated areas of China have changed their vegetation type group during the past three decades due to anthropogenic activities and climatic change. We expect this updated map to benefit the understanding and management of China's terrestrial ecosystems.

Vulnerability of African Rosewood (Pterocarpus erinaceus, Fabaceae) natural stands to climate change and implications for silviculture in West Africa

Pterocarpus erinaceus is a native tree species of the Guineo-Sudanian and Sudano-Sahelian zones where natural stands are under constant pressure and heavily exploited for timber, animal feeding and others uses. A part from the overexploitation, climate change could also become a serious threat to the species natural distribution. For that purposes, this study aims to assess the vulnerability of P. erinaceus potential niche to climate change within its natural distribution area in West Africa. Niche predictions are based on 6,981 natural occurrence of the species and 19 global bioclimatic variables available through WorldClim. The future niche of the species is predicted according to three concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) of BC model for 2050 and 2070, thanks to Maxent software. P. erinaceus is currently reported from Senegal to Cameroon. Its potential niche covers the Sudano-Sahelian zone and the Dahomey gap on approximately 17.42% of the total area of these countries. In general, the niche of the species is not sensitive to climate change, regardless of the climate scenario and the year. Compared to its initial niche, the niche of the species will increase from 22.33% to 43.61% in 2050 and from 27.12% to 53.61% in 2070. However, this ecological expansion observed mainly in the Gulf of Guinea, will be associated with a considerable decrease in the Sahel and central Nigeria. This study shows the importance of promoting the development of innovative silvicultural strategies for the extension and restoration of natural stands of P. erinaceus in order to meet sustainably the timber needs of the West African region. It helps also to strengthening the roles of natural forests in providing ecosystem services and mitigating climate change effects.

Spatial and temporal effects of drought on Chinese vegetation under different coverage levels

Land surface vegetation dynamics are strongly affected by drought. Thus, understanding the responses of vegetation to drought can inform measures to increase biome stability. In this study, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) were utilized to investigate the relationship between vegetation activity and drought across different drought regions and ecological community types from 1982 to 2015. Our results showed that the highest correlation between monthly NDVI and PDSI at different timescales (1-36 months) indicated the degree of drought impact on vegetation. There were diverse responses of vegetation to drought according to the drought features and climatic environment. The northern grassland, cropland, and desert ecosystems were strongly impacted by drought. These vegetation ecosystems had a low sensitivity to drought in southern China. Drought had the strongest impact on grassland in summer, which is the high frequency drought season. The most susceptible ecosystem types to drought were those with homogenous vegetation, especially under long-term drought conditions (such as the Inner Mongolia Plateau dominated by grassland). Under global warming, drought with high-temperature characteristics is expected to become more frequent and severe. Such drought could threaten the survival of plateau grassland, arid plain grassland, and rain-fed cropland, as high temperatures accelerate evaporation, leading to water deficit. However, moist forests showed little threat under normal drought. We suggest that future research should focus on vegetation activity in northern and southwestern China, where the vegetation shows the greatest sensitivity to drought.

Dynamic change of vegetation and its response to climate and topographic factors in the Xijiang River basin, China

Vegetation plays an important role in the energy exchange, water cycle, carbon cycle, biogeochemical cycle, and maintenance of surface ecosystems. In recent years, regional vegetation cover has changed significantly. This study used statistical analyses, including the Mann-Kendall trend test, the Hurst exponent, and Pettitt test, to analyze the characteristics of temporal and spatial variation of vegetation coverage in the Xijiang River basin from 2000 to 2013. The results showed that vegetation coverage of 98.76% of the Xijiang River basin is weakly variable (Cv < 0.1). The area with significantly increased vegetation accounts for 43.45% of the total area (p < = 0.05). A total of 19.47% of vegetation coverage in the Xijiang River basin had significant change-points from 2004 to 2008 (p < = 0.05), and the area of concave change-points accounted for 25.99% of the total area of point increased the vegetation coverage. At an altitude of 500-2000 m, the altitude has an inhibitory effect on vegetation coverage. When the slope is less than 35 degrees, the slope has a promoting effect on vegetation coverage. Rich precipitation resources are the main source of soil water supply, and higher temperature provides better thermal energy resources, which may have a significant impact on vegetation growth in the future and cause time lag effects of climatic factors on vegetation coverage. The vegetation coverage and the area affected by the precipitation and temperature (time lag factors) accounted for 32.99% and 31.47% of the total watershed, respectively. The correlation between climatic factors, topographic factors, and vegetation coverage increased over time. The results from this study will help to further deepen the understanding of vegetation cover and its influencing factors, and provide a scientific basis for ecological restoration projects such as vegetation restoration in the Xijiang River basin of China.

Assessing differences in the response of forest aboveground biomass and composition under climate change in subtropical forest transition zone

The subtropical forest transition zone in southern China is a typical transition zone with high coverage and diverse vegetation. Projected climate change will affect physiological processes of trees, which would consequently alter the forest aboveground biomass (AGB) and composition at broad spatial scales. However, spatially heterogeneous responses may also be shaped by climate change, succession, and harvesting in different forest habitats. The objectives of this study were to assess the changes in subtropical forest AGB and composition in response to climate change, while comparing the responses of two similar forest landscapes: Taihe County (TH) and Longnan County (LN). We used a loose-coupling of PnET-II with LANDIS-II to simulate changes in forest AGB and composition under climate change scenarios (Current climate, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) with harvest disturbances. Our simulation results demonstrated that forest AGB and composition were significantly affected by climate change in both landscapes. Changes in forest AGB was mostly driven by succession and harvest, but climate change also greatly contribute to the variation in AGB of deciduous broad-leaved forests (DBF), and coniferous forests (CF). Moreover, a larger area of LN experienced biomass reduction compared to TH, specifically under the RCP8.5 scenario. Given our estimates of the response in forest AGB and composition under climate change scenarios across different periods, we recommend that the regional forest management should be localized and should consider the effects of climate change through time in their planning schemes.

Determinants of the beta diversity of tree species in tropical forests: Implications for biodiversity conservation

The mapping of earth's biodiversity has advanced our theoretical and empirical understanding of biodiversity and has thus guided conservation efforts. Yet, early biodiversity maps often relied on alpha diversity indices, while beta diversity has rarely been used for practical conservation actions. We used generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDM) and variance partitioning to map beta diversity patterns of Hainan Island, China, and explore its underlying factors based on a large dataset of 248,538 individual trees belonging to 1,016 species in 902 forest plots. We used principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to visualize community similarity, and spatial overlap analysis to assess the ability of the current protected areas (PAs) to encompass beta diversity. The GDMs explained 27.65% and 26.58% of the variation in beta diversity at the genus and species levels, respectively. The community composition of tree species in Hainan presented a general east-to-west gradient, and three floristic regions were delineated. This biogeographical pattern is predominantly structured by mean annual precipitation. Environmental variables, rather than geographical distance, were the most important factors determining present beta diversity patterns. Currently, PAs of Hainan Island are concentrated on mountain forest areas, while the lowland forest has largely been ignored. Thus, we suggest that biodiversity mapping based only on alpha diversity is not enough to identify conservation gaps, and the inclusion of beta diversity in such maps constitutes a promising tool to maximize the biodiversity coverage of PAs. Our study provides empirical evidence that a spatially explicit analysis of beta diversity in a specific region can be used for conservation planning.

Exploring the regional differences of ecosystem health and its driving factors in China

A better understanding of regional differences in ecosystem health and its driving factors is conducive to ecosystem management and restoration. Although various studies on ecosystem health have been carried out in different regions, few studies have been devoted to the insightful exploration of the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem health and its driving forces at a national scale. In this study, we used an evaluation framework in terms of vigor, organization, resilience, and ecosystem service functions to assess the ecosystem health level in China from 2000 to 2015. Then, spatial agglomeration and regional differences in ecosystem health were examined using the spatial autocorrelation method and K-means clustering analysis, and the factors driving the regional differences of ecosystem health were explored based on the geographical detector model. Our results showed the following: (1) the ecosystem health level in China spatially increases from the northwest to the southeast, exhibiting significant global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial agglomeration; (2) eleven zones with three types were identified to indicate the regional differences of ecosystem health; (3) In terms of the driving factors, the moisture index and land use intensity contributed 24.5% and 20.7% to the variation in ecosystem health at the national scale. The ecosystem health changes were influenced by the interaction of meteorological and socio-economic factors in most regions with high ecosystem health types. Socio-economic factors act as a bridge that linked and reinforced the other factors in most regions with low and medium ecosystem health types. Ecologically protected factors were found to exert a remarkable impact in the southwestern region and the Loess Plateau region. Our findings can provide more effective and detailed decision-making support for ecosystem conservation and management in China.

Spatial Assessment of Urban Climate Change Vulnerability during Different Urbanization Phases

In urban areas, concentrated populations and societal changes intensify the influence of climate change. However, few studies have focused on vulnerability to climate-related risks on the scale of a single urban area. Against this backdrop, we reconstructed a spatial vulnerability framework based on the drivers-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model to reflect the complex interactions between urbanization and climate change and to integrate the natural and socio-economic factors of urban areas into this framework. Furthermore, to explore the relationship between rapid urbanization and climate change, we studied data from two years that represented different stages of urbanization. The results showed that the index framework was able to reconcile these two concepts to reflect the complex interactions between urbanization and climate change. The assessment results indicate that the overall degree of climate change vulnerability exhibits a generally increasing and dispersing trend after rapid urbanization. The increasing trend is influenced by an increase in low-vulnerability areas, and the dispersing trend is influenced by anthropogenic activities caused by rapid urbanization. The changes are reflected in the following observations: 1. The suburbs are affected by their own natural environmental characteristics and rapid urbanization; the vulnerability level has risen in most areas but has declined in certain inland areas. 2. High-vulnerability regions show minor changes during this stage due to the lasting impact of climate change. Finally, the main environmental problems faced by high-vulnerability areas are discussed based on existing research.

Planning priority conservation areas under climate change for six plant species with extremely small populations in China

The concept of Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations (PSESP) has been employed to guide conservation of threatened plant species in China. Climate change has a high potential to threaten PSESP. As a result, it is necessary to integrate climate change effects on PSESP into conservation planning in China. Here, ecological niche modelling is used to project current and future habitat distributions of six PSESP in China under climate change scenarios and conservation planning software is applied to identify priority conservation areas (PCAs) for these PSESP based on habitat distributions. These results were used to provide proposals for in-situ and ex-situ conservation measures directed at PSESP. It was found that annual precipitation was important for habitat distributions for all six PSESP (with the percentage contribution to habitat distributions ranging from 18.1 % to 74.9 %) and non-climatic variables including soil and altitude have a large effect on habitat suitability of PSESP. Large quantities of PCAs occurred within some provincial regions for these six PSESP (e.g. Sichuan and Jilin for the PSESP Cathaya argyrophylla, Taxus cuspidata, Annamocarya sinensis and Madhuca pasquieri), indicating that these are likely to be appropriate areas for in-situ and ex-situ conservation measures directed at these PSESP. Those nature reserves with large quantities of PCAs were identified as promising sites for in-situ conservation measures of PSESP; such reserves include Yangzie and Dongdongtinghu for C. argyrophylla, Songhuajiangsanhu and Changbaishan for T. cuspidata and Shiwandashanshuiyuanlian for Tsoongiodendron odorum. These results suggest that existing seed banks and botanical gardens occurring within identified PCAs should allocate more resources and space to ex-situ conservation of PSESP. In addition, there should be additional botanical gardens established for ex-situ conservation of PSESP in PCAs outside existing nature reserves. To address the risk of negative effects of climate change on PSESP, it is necessary to integrate in-situ and ex-situ conservation as well as climate change monitoring in PSESP conservation planning.