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Bispo R, Marques FJ, Penha A, Espadinha-Cruz P, Grilo A. A decade of urban fires: Portuguese events between 2013 and 2022. Sci Data 2023; 10:569. [PMID: 37634018 PMCID: PMC10460431 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02476-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2023] [Accepted: 08/15/2023] [Indexed: 08/28/2023] Open
Abstract
This study describes a dataset containing urban fire events that took place in mainland Portugal between 2013 and 2022. The Regulation n.º3317-A/2018, established by the Portuguese National Emergency and Civil Protection Authority (Autoridade Nacional de Emergência e Proteção Civil, ANEPC), defines the Operations Management System (Sistema de Gestão de Operações, SGO). Among other attributions, this system allows to manage the lyfe-cycle of the urban fire events, from ignition to extinction, through the Operations Decision Support System (Sistema de Apoio à Decisão Operacional, SADO). This system supports the systematic collection of a minimum set of data on each event. All instances included in the dataset were retrieved from SADO. To make the data suitable for analytic purposes, several pre-processing actions were taken, including the steps of data transformation and cleaning. The dataset was further validated by a set of technical procedures aiming to verify both data correctness and utility. The final dataset provides the most recent multi-year record of Portuguese urban fires including 27 variables on 72641 events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Regina Bispo
- Center for Mathematics and Applications (NOVAMath) and Department of Mathematics, NOVA School of Science and Technology, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, 2829-516, Caparica, Portugal.
| | - Filipe J Marques
- Center for Mathematics and Applications (NOVAMath) and Department of Mathematics, NOVA School of Science and Technology, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, 2829-516, Caparica, Portugal
| | - Alexandre Penha
- Comando Nacional de Emergência e Proteção Civil, ANEPC Autoridade Nacional de Emergência e Proteção Civil, 2794-112, Carnaxide, Portugal
| | - Pedro Espadinha-Cruz
- UNIDEMI, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, NOVA School of Science and Technology, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, 2829-516, Caparica, Portugal
| | - António Grilo
- UNIDEMI, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, NOVA School of Science and Technology, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, 2829-516, Caparica, Portugal
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Bugallo M, Esteban MD, Marey-Pérez MF, Morales D. Wildfire prediction using zero-inflated negative binomial mixed models: Application to Spain. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 328:116788. [PMID: 36525738 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116788] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2022] [Revised: 11/04/2022] [Accepted: 11/12/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Wildfires have changed in recent decades. The catastrophic wildfires make it necessary to have accurate predictive models on a country scale to organize firefighting resources. In Mediterranean countries, the number of wildfires is quite high but they are mainly concentrated around summer months. Because of seasonality, there are territories where the number of fires is zero in some months and is overdispersed in others. Zero-inflated negative binomial mixed models are adapted to this type of data because they can describe patterns that explain both number of fires and their non-occurrence and also provide useful prediction tools. In addition to model-based predictions, a parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating mean squared errors and constructing prediction intervals. The statistical methodology and developed software are applied to model and to predict number of wildfires in Spain between 2002 and 2015 by provinces and months.
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Affiliation(s)
- María Bugallo
- Universidad Miguel Hernández de Elche, Centro de Investigación Operativa, Spain.
| | | | | | - Domingo Morales
- Universidad Miguel Hernández de Elche, Centro de Investigación Operativa, Spain
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Galantinho A, Santos S, Eufrázio S, Silva C, Carvalho F, Alpizar-Jara R, Mira A. Effects of roads on small-mammal movements: Opportunities and risks of vegetation management on roadsides. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2022; 316:115272. [PMID: 35580507 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115272] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2021] [Revised: 05/06/2022] [Accepted: 05/07/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Roads can block animal movement and reduce persistence of species living in road surroundings. Movement restrictions on local populations may even increase extinction risk of abundant small mammals. However, road verges (road managed area between the edge of the road and the beginning of private land) may provide refuge and corridors for small mammals when properly managed. Information on the effects of roads and roadside management on small-mammal movement is still scarce for low traffic roads (<20,000 vehicles per day) crossing well-preserved habitats. We aimed to fill this gap by comparing fine-scale movement patterns of wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) in a road and in a similar roadless area without management. Both areas consisted of a well-preserved Mediterranean agro-silvo pastoral system. We studied several movement patterns: road crossings, verge use, length, and direction of movement. Additionally, we assessed how roadside management, animals' sex and residency status, season and microhabitat affect movement at the road area. At the roadless area, we defined a virtual road and verges at equivalent locations to the road area for comparison purposes. We gathered capture-mark-recapture data for two years to characterize movement patterns. Wood mice tended to avoid the road by crossing it less often and moving away from it more frequently than from equivalent locations in the roadless area. Wood mice used road verges more frequently than virtual verges and moved more often parallel to the road than to the virtual road. Road crossings were more frequent after firebreak openings (strips of mowed land) in surrounding areas and near taller shrubs. Also, males used road verges more often than females. Differences on several movement patterns between areas and their trends within the road area can be explained mainly by the presence of the road and roadside vegetation management (e.g., firebreaks openings). We suggest roadside vegetation management practices (e.g., avoid land mowing; maintain vegetation strips) to promote the role of verges as refuges and/or corridors for small mammals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana Galantinho
- UBC - Conservation Biology Unit, Biology Department, University of Évora, Pólo da Mitra, 7002-554, Évora, Portugal; MED - Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development, Institute for Advanced Studies and Research, Universidade de Évora, Pólo da Mitra, Ap. 94, 7006-554, Évora, Portugal.
| | - Sara Santos
- UBC - Conservation Biology Unit, Biology Department, University of Évora, Pólo da Mitra, 7002-554, Évora, Portugal; MED - Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development, Institute for Advanced Studies and Research, Universidade de Évora, Pólo da Mitra, Ap. 94, 7006-554, Évora, Portugal
| | - Sofia Eufrázio
- MED - Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development, Institute for Advanced Studies and Research, Universidade de Évora, Pólo da Mitra, Ap. 94, 7006-554, Évora, Portugal
| | - Carmo Silva
- UBC - Conservation Biology Unit, Biology Department, University of Évora, Pólo da Mitra, 7002-554, Évora, Portugal; MED - Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development, Institute for Advanced Studies and Research, Universidade de Évora, Pólo da Mitra, Ap. 94, 7006-554, Évora, Portugal
| | - Filipe Carvalho
- Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources (CIBIO-InBIO), University of Porto, Campus Agrário de Vairão, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal; Department of Zoology and Entomology, School of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Fort Hare, Private Bag X1314, Alice, 5700, South Africa
| | - Russell Alpizar-Jara
- Research Center in Mathematics and Applications (CIMA-UE), Institute for Advanced Studies and Research, Department of Mathematics, School of Science and Technology, University of Évora, Rua Romão Ramalho 59, 7000-671, Évora, Portugal
| | - António Mira
- UBC - Conservation Biology Unit, Biology Department, University of Évora, Pólo da Mitra, 7002-554, Évora, Portugal; MED - Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development & Departamento de Biologia, Escola de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade de Évora, Pólo da Mitra, Ap. 94, 7006-554, Évora, Portugal
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Modelling the Atmospheric Environment Associated with a Wind-Driven Fire Event in Portugal. ATMOSPHERE 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos13071124] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Increased knowledge of the meteorological conditions that lead to mega-fires is important to prevent wildfires and improve firefighting. This study analyses the atmospheric conditions that led to the largest forest fire ever observed in Portugal in 2019. The fire burned an estimated total area of around 9000 hectares in 12 h. The study is based on two simulations performed with the Meso-NH atmospheric model. The control simulation was configured in a single and large domain with 2500 m resolution, whereas a second simulation was configured using the grid nesting technique with an inner domain with 500 m resolution. The fire developed under typical summer conditions, under the influence of the Azores anticyclone and the presence of the Iberian thermal low. The weather pattern included intense northwest winds in the western region of the Iberian Peninsula. In the fire area, the wind speed was around 7 m s−1 with maximum wind gusts of 15 m s−1, favouring the rapid spread of the fire and characterising the event as a wind-driven fire. This study demonstrates the benefits of the use of large domains and high-resolution numerical simulations to explore the regional and local effects, which are crucial for the evolution of some fires.
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Study on Spatial-Distribution Characteristics Based on Fire-Spot Data in Northern China. SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14116872] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Forest fires are an important disturbance in forest ecosystems and can affect the structure and function of forests. These must be mitigated, to eliminate the associated harmful impacts on forests and the environment as well as to have a healthy and sustainable environment for wildlife. The northern region of China (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, and Hebei provinces) is one of the important deciduous broadleaf forests and boreal-forest ecosystems in China. Based on the monitoring of historical remote-sensing products, this study analyzes and explores the spatial- and temporal-distribution patterns of forest fires in Northern China in 2020 and 2021, providing a strong scientific basis for forest-fire prevention and management. The number of monthly forest fires in the northern region in 2020 and 2021 was counted, to obtain seasonal and interannual forest-fire variation. The results show that the number of forest fires occurring in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning provinces in 2021 is smaller than that in 2020. The occurrence of forest fires is, mainly, concentrated in spring and autumn, especially in April and October. The number of forest fires that occurred in Hebei Province in 2020 and 2021 was almost the same, showing a slight increasing trend, especially with more growth in February. It is worth noting that Heilongjiang Province is the region with the highest number of forest fires, regardless of the comparison of the total number of forest fires in two years or the number of forest fires in a single year. Spatial-clustering analysis (Ripley’s K) was used to analyze the spatial-distribution pattern of forest fires, in each province of northern China, and the results showed that forest fires were significantly aggregated in all four provinces. The experimental analysis conducted in this paper can provide local forest managers and firefighting agencies with the opportunity to better plan for fighting fires and improve forest-management effectiveness. Based on mastering the characteristics of the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest fires, fire-prevention publicity and education should be strengthened, and scientific forest-fire-prevention measures should be applied to plan reasonable forest-protection policies. This will contribute towards a healthy and sustainable environment.
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Abstract
Fires can have an anthropogenic or natural origin. The most frequent natural fire cause is lightning. Since anthropogenic and lightning fires have different climatic and socio-economic drivers, it is important to distinguish between these different fire causes. We developed random forest models that predict the fraction of anthropogenic and lightning fire incidences, and their burned area, at the level of the Nomenclature des Unités Territoriales Statistiques level 3 (NUTS3) for Europe. The models were calibrated using the centered log-ratio of fire incidence and burned area reference data from the European Forest Fire Information System. After a correlation analysis, the population density, fractional human land impact, elevation and burned area coefficient of variation—a measure of interannual variability in burned area—were selected as predictor variables in the models. After parameter tuning and running the models with several train-validate compositions, we found that the vast majority of fires and burned area in Europe has an anthropogenic cause, while lightning plays a significant role in the remote northern regions of Scandinavia. Combining our results with burned area data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, we estimated that 96.5 ± 0.9% of the burned area in Europe has an anthropogenic cause. Our spatially explicit fire cause attribution model demonstrates the spatial variability between anthropogenic and lightning fires and their burned area over Europe and could be used to improve predictive fire models by accounting for fire cause.
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Exploratory Spatial Analysis of Social Vulnerability and Forest Fire Risk in the Pinhal Interior Sul (Central Portugal). SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14053010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Mainland Portugal is a Mediterranean country, particularly known for the recurrence of forest fires in terms of burnt areas, losses, and damage. The central Portugal administrative area has been in a “stage” of prominence for this dangerous phenomenon, with the sub-region Pinhal Interior Sul being one of the most critical territories. In addition to the manifestation of the dangerous process itself, it is important to state the importance of vulnerability, which has been relatively ignored in the definition of public policies in terms of spatial planning. Vulnerability concerns the way people and their assets are exposed to forest fires (as they represent the main targets of their harmful consequences), as well as how they are affected by, resist, and recover from them. This paper investigates only one of the components of vulnerability—social vulnerability—in terms of demographic, cultural, socio-economic, and infrastructural conditions to establish a comparative analysis among the parishes of the sub-region Pinhal Interior Sul (in particular, between the more urban and rural ones in each municipality). In the studied area, the high values of social vulnerability reinforce the high hazard level. At the municipality level, it is possible to conclude that the population living in more markedly rural and peripheral parishes is more vulnerable to forest fires than those living in the more urban conditions.
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Bellanova P, Feist L, Costa PJM, Orywol S, Reicherter K, Lehmkuhl F, Schwarzbauer J. Contemporary pollution of surface sediments from the Algarve shelf, Portugal. MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN 2022; 176:113410. [PMID: 35189532 DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.113410] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2021] [Revised: 01/28/2022] [Accepted: 01/29/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The present-day human footprint is traceable in all environments. Growing urban centers, tourism, agricultural and industrial activities in combination with fishery, aquacultures and intense naval traffic, result in a large output of pollutants onto coastal regions. The Algarve shelf (Portugal) is one exemplary highly affected coastal system. With this study the contemporary pollution was followed in eighteen offshore surface sediment samples. Heavy metals (e.g., Cr, Pb, Cu, Hg) and organic contaminants, such as linear alkylbenzenes, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane metabolites, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and hopanes, have been identified and quantified, that pose hazardous effects on the marine environment and biota. This study correlates spatial distribution patterns with the pollutant composition, potential sources and pathways, each sample's grain size, and local influences, such as discharging river systems and ocean currents. This study presents a blueprint-study that allows the methodological adaption to new shelf systems with regionally different ocean current-driven distribution patterns of anthropogenic pollutants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Piero Bellanova
- Institute of Neotectonics and Natural Hazards, RWTH Aachen University, Germany; Institute of Geology and Geochemistry of Petroleum and Coal, RWTH Aachen University, Germany.
| | - Lisa Feist
- Institute of Neotectonics and Natural Hazards, RWTH Aachen University, Germany
| | - Pedro J M Costa
- Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Sciences and Technologies, University of Coimbra, Portugal; Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculty of Science, University of Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Sarah Orywol
- Institute of Geology and Geochemistry of Petroleum and Coal, RWTH Aachen University, Germany
| | - Klaus Reicherter
- Institute of Neotectonics and Natural Hazards, RWTH Aachen University, Germany
| | - Frank Lehmkuhl
- Chair for Physical Geography and Geoecology, Department of Geography, RWTH Aachen University, Germany
| | - Jan Schwarzbauer
- Institute of Geology and Geochemistry of Petroleum and Coal, RWTH Aachen University, Germany
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Livestock Management for the Delivery of Ecosystem Services in Fire-Prone Shrublands of Atlantic Iberia. SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14052775] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
In the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, characterized by its humid climate, large rural areas are being abandoned, mostly in less-favoured areas covered by heathlands, which present a low nutritive quality for livestock production. The high combustibility of these shrublands is driving a high wildfire incidence with negative environmental and economic effects. In this review, some aspects on wildfire occurrence and the potential of grazing livestock to reduce woody phytomass and fire risk in heathland-dominated areas whilst maintaining quality production and preserving biodiversity are summarized. Heathlands may be partially improved—converted to grassland—to better meet animals’ nutritional requirements while acting as ‘natural’ firebreaks. The specific grazing behaviour offers the opportunity to combine different domestic herbivores (mixed grazing) to achieve sustainable systems utilizing heterogeneous resources. Cattle, sheep, goats, and horses may have a role in the provision of different ecosystem services such as food production and biodiversity conservation. Genotype x environment interactions shape the ability of animals to cope with poor vegetation conditions, with smaller species and breeds performing better than larger animals. Goats and horses are indicated to arrest woody encroachment. Sustainable grazing systems are affordable in heathland–grassland mosaics by selecting appropriate livestock species and breeds for quality production, thus favouring rural economies and lowering fire risk.
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Differences in Disaster Preparedness Among Dog and Other Pet Owners in Oporto, Portugal. Disaster Med Public Health Prep 2021; 16:1490-1495. [PMID: 34275503 DOI: 10.1017/dmp.2021.159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to assess the knowledge and practices related to disaster preparedness among pet owners in North Portugal. The present research provides an evaluation of differences among pet owners regarding preparedness in the event of disasters. METHODS A cross-sectional study was conducted among a convenience sample of 155 pet owners between September and November 2018. Subjects were interviewed using a structured questionnaire with items addressing sociodemographic characteristics and questions related to owners' emergency preparedness and practices. RESULTS In this study, 53.5% of the respondents thought about the possibility of a disaster. Only 21.3% of respondents reported having knowledge on the existence of a disaster kit for pets in case of an emergency. The majority (94.8%) of respondents said they were not aware of the preparedness county-level organization plans. Knowledge and preparedness were found to be significantly higher among dog owners compared with owners of other pet species. CONCLUSIONS The results suggest that Portuguese pet owners have inadequate knowledge on how to prepare for inclusion of their pets in a disaster.
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Abstract
Every year forest fires destroy millions of hectares of land worldwide. Detecting forest fire ignition in the early stages is fundamental to avoid forest fires catastrophes. In this approach, Wireless Sensor Network is explored to develop a monitoring system to send alert to authorities when a fire ignition is detected. The study of sensors allocation is essential in this type of monitoring system since its performance is directly related to the position of the sensors, which also defines the coverage region. In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed to solve the sensor allocation problem. This model considers the sensor coverage limitation, the distance, and the forest density interference in the sensor reach. A Genetic Algorithm is implemented to solve the optimisation model and minimise the forest fire hazard. The results obtained are promising since the algorithm could allocate the sensor avoiding overlaps and minimising the total fire hazard value for both regions considered.
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Calheiros T, Pereira MG, Nunes JP. Assessing impacts of future climate change on extreme fire weather and pyro-regions in Iberian Peninsula. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 754:142233. [PMID: 32920419 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2020] [Revised: 09/03/2020] [Accepted: 09/03/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Weather conditions play an important role in wildfire activity. In many regions, future climate could lead to different fire weather, with impacts on the ignition, behaviour, and suppression of wildfires, which may, therefore, force new fire regimes. This study aimed to assess the evolution of fire weather indices and the Number of Extreme Days (NED) in the context of climate change. We estimated the impact of these changes on monthly Normalized Burnt Area (NBA) and in the spatial distribution of Pyro-Regions (PR), using a recently identified relationship between NED and NBA intra-annual patterns. The components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) in the Iberian Peninsula were analysed for present-day conditions and future climate scenarios, using daily data from ERA-Interim (1980-2014) and an ensemble of simulations from 11 EURO-CORDEX high spatial resolution models, for two future periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results suggest a significant increase in future fire weather risk, especially in late spring and early autumn, and also in southern and eastern Iberian Peninsula. NED is expected to strongly increase in summer months in the four PRs, but also to decrease in March and April in the northwestern and southwestern PR. This could change the spatial distribution of PRs, with a general northwards movement: the northern PR is expected to disappear except north of the Cantabrian Mountains, being replaced by the northwestern PR; the southwestern PR is expected to grow and occupy part of the area currently in the northwestern PR; and a new PR could appear in parts of the current eastern PR. These PR changes follow the projected modifications in the major climate regions. Results suggest different fire regimes in the future, with higher fire weather risk, and a longer and harsher fire season.
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Affiliation(s)
- T Calheiros
- cE3c: centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental changes, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal.
| | - M G Pereira
- Centro de Investigação e de Tecnologias Agro-Ambientais e Biológicas (CITAB), Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real, Portugal; IDL, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal.
| | - J P Nunes
- cE3c: centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental changes, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal.
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Shrub Biomass Estimates in Former Burnt Areas Using Sentinel 2 Images Processing and Classification. FORESTS 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/f11050555] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
Shrubs growing in former burnt areas play two diametrically opposed roles. On the one hand, they protect the soil against erosion, promote rainwater infiltration, carbon sequestration and support animal life. On the other hand, after the shrubs’ density reaches a particular size for the canopy to touch and the shrubs’ biomass accumulates more than 10 Mg ha−1, they create the necessary conditions for severe wild fires to occur and spread. The creation of a methodology suitable to identify former burnt areas and to track shrubs’ regrowth within these areas in a regular and a multi temporal basis would be beneficial. The combined use of geographical information systems (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) supported by dedicated land survey and field work for data collection has been identified as a suitable method to manage these tasks. The free access to Sentinel images constitutes a valuable tool for updating the GIS project and for the monitoring of regular shrubs’ accumulated biomass. Sentinel 2 VIS-NIR images are suitable to classify rural areas (overall accuracy = 79.6% and Cohen’s K = 0.754) and to create normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images to be used in association to allometric equations for the shrubs’ biomass estimation (R2 = 0.8984, p-value < 0.05 and RMSE = 4.46 Mg ha−1). Five to six years after a forest fire occurrence, almost all the former burnt area is covered by shrubs. Up to 10 years after a fire, the accumulated shrubs’ biomass surpasses 14 Mg ha−1. The results described in this paper demonstrate that Northwest Portugal presents larger shrubland areas and greater shrub biomass accumulation (average 18.3 Mg ha−1) than the Northeast (average 7.7 Mg ha−1) of the country.
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Oliveira M, Delerue-Matos C, Pereira MC, Morais S. Environmental Particulate Matter Levels during 2017 Large Forest Fires and Megafires in the Center Region of Portugal: A Public Health Concern? INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:E1032. [PMID: 32041266 PMCID: PMC7036973 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17031032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2020] [Revised: 01/31/2020] [Accepted: 02/04/2020] [Indexed: 01/02/2023]
Abstract
This work characterizes the dimension and the exceptionality of 2017 large- and mega-fires that occurred in the center region of Portugal through the assessment of their impact on the ambient levels of particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5), retrieved from local monitoring stations, and the associated public health risks. PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were increased during the occurrence of large fires and megafires, with daily concentrations exceeding the European/national guidelines in 7-14 and 1-12 days of 2017 (up to 704 µg/m3 for PM10 and 46 µg/m3 for PM2.5), respectively. PM10 concentrations were correlated with total burned area (0.500 < r < 0.949; p > 0.05) and with monthly total burned area/distance2 (0.500 < r < 0.667; p > 0.05). The forest fires of 2017 took the life of 112 citizens. A total of 474 cases of hospital admissions due to cardiovascular diseases and 3524 cases of asthma incidence symptoms per 100,000 individuals at risk were assessed due to exposure to 2017 forest fires. Real-time and in situ PM methodologies should be combined with protection action plans to reduce public health risks. Portuguese rural stations should monitor other health-relevant pollutants (e.g., carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds) released from wildfires to allow performing more robust and comprehensive measurements that will allow a better assessment of the potential health risks for the exposed populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marta Oliveira
- REQUIMTE/LAQV, Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Instituto Politécnico do Porto, 4249-015 Porto, Portugal;
| | - Cristina Delerue-Matos
- REQUIMTE/LAQV, Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Instituto Politécnico do Porto, 4249-015 Porto, Portugal;
| | - Maria Carmo Pereira
- LEPABE, Departamento de Engenharia Química, Faculdade de Engenharia, Universidade do Porto, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal;
| | - Simone Morais
- REQUIMTE/LAQV, Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Instituto Politécnico do Porto, 4249-015 Porto, Portugal;
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Abstract
This paper presents a spatial characterization of the distribution at district level of the forest fire events that occurred in mainland Portugal between 1996 and 2015 and whose causes were investigated. We further examine the breakdown of the causes of these forest fires over this period. Results supported by relevant validated statistics show that of the total fire events recorded, 94.4% were identified as an effective occurrence, of which 22.2% had burned an area greater than 1 ha, and of these only 42.1% were investigated. False alarms or fires without a recorded burning area are more significant in the districts of Aveiro, Lisbon and Porto, the biggest municipalities. Of the fires whose causes were investigated, the largest number of recorded events were in NE regions (49.0%), followed by NW regions (41.7%), and finally in the rest of the country (9.3%). Taking into account the ratio between the investigated fires and the total number of fires and the behavior profile produced for cluster analysis, a different panorama is brought to light, with the center and south regions showing greater effort to investigate the fires. A thorough analysis of the causes and motivations of the ignition of these forest fire occurrences showed that human activity, either deliberate (20.4%) or negligent (29.9%), outweigh natural phenomena (0.6%). Reactivations (14.6%) and Unknown (34.5%) causes decreased as time passed, whereas negligent and deliberate causes increased. However, these results could change if the percentage of unknown information in relation to the origin of the forest fires is considerable. The outcome of this research will support an efficient management related to fire mitigation and suppression including establishing preventive actions to reduce the occurrence of forest fires and emphasize the need to improve the procedure for recording forest fire events in Portugal, especially in relation to identifying their cause.
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Determinants of Land Use/Cover Change in the Iberian Peninsula (1990–2012) at Municipal Level. LAND 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/land9010005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
This work analyzes the determinants associated with main land use/cover changes in the Iberian Peninsula during the 1990–2012 period using a decision tree model. Our main objective is to identify broad-scale patterns that associate the characteristics of geographic areas with the dominant land use/cover change process based on CORINE Land Cover (Coordination of Information on the Environment) and defined in a previously published work. Biophysical, structural and socioeconomic variables were considered as potentially explanatory of the dominant change process at municipal scale. The resulting model allowed identification of a common pattern in Portugal and Spain (urbanization being highly associated to areas already densely populated in the previous period), but also some diverging ones. In particular, dominant trends in Portuguese territory appear to be highly determined by wildfire occurrence. In contrast, Spanish municipalities showed more diverse patterns, usually associated to biophysical determinants like average forest productivity or average terrain slope.
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Hydrological Impacts of Large Fires and Future Climate: Modeling Approach Supported by Satellite Data. REMOTE SENSING 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/rs11232832] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Fires have significant impacts on soil erosion and water supply that may be exacerbated by future climate. The aims of this study were: To simulate the effects of a large fire event in the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model previously calibrated to a medium-sized watershed in Portugal; and to predict the hydrological impacts of large fires and future climate on water supply and soil erosion. For this, post-fire recovery was parametrized in SWAT based on satellite information, namely, the fraction of vegetation cover (FVC) calculated from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The impact of future climate was based on four regional climate models under the stabilization (RCP 4.5) and high emission (RCP 8.5) scenarios, focusing on mid-century projections (2020–2049) compared to a historical period (1970–1999). Future large fire events (>3000 ha) were predicted from a multiple linear regression model, which uses the daily severity rating (DSR) fire weather index, precipitation anomaly, and burnt area in the previous three years; and subsequently simulated in SWAT under each climate model/scenario. Results suggest that time series of satellite indices are useful to inform SWAT about vegetation growth and post-fire recovery processes. Different land cover types require different time periods for returning to the pre-fire fraction of vegetation cover, ranging from 3 years for pines, eucalypts, and shrubs, to 6 years for sparsely vegetated low scrub. Future climate conditions are expected to include an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation with marked uneven seasonal distribution, and this will likely trigger the growth of burnt area and an increased frequency of large fires, even considering differences across climate models. The future seasonal pattern of precipitation will have a strong influence on river discharge, with less water in the river during spring, summer, and autumn, but more discharge in winter, the latter being exacerbated under the large fire scenario. Overall, the decrease in water supply is more influenced by climate change, whereas soil erosion increase is more dependent on fire, although with a slight increase under climate change. These results emphasize the need for adaptation measures that target the combined hydrological consequences of future climate, fires, and post-fire vegetation dynamics.
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Fernandes ACP, Sanches Fernandes LF, Moura JP, Cortes RMV, Pacheco FAL. A structural equation model to predict macroinvertebrate-based ecological status in catchments influenced by anthropogenic pressures. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 681:242-257. [PMID: 31103662 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2019] [Revised: 05/07/2019] [Accepted: 05/08/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
A Partial Least Squares-Path Model (PLS-PM) was developed for the Ave River Basin (North of Portugal), and the results used in a scenario analysis. The data for PLS-PM comprised a set of anthropogenic pressures, water quality parameters, and a macroinvertebrate-based biodiversity index (IPtIN) used to assess the ecological status of streams. These groups of measured parameters (called latent variables) were given the names "Pressures", "Contamination" and "Ecological Integrity". Besides, latent variables were connected through path coefficients representing potential causal effects among them. In a large portion of Ave the ecological status of streams is currently bad or poor. Nitrate and coliforms were the most weighted measured variables of latent variable "Contamination", with w ≈ 0.7 and w ≈ 0.2, respectively. The highest "Pressures" weights were ascribed to livestock farming (0.7) and population density (0.4). The connections "Pressures"-"Contamination" and "Contamination" - "Ecological Integrity" exposed a sequence of direct negative effects between the three variables, expressed in the corresponding path coefficients (pc = 0.87 and pc = -1.11). Paradoxically, a direct negative effect of "Pressures" over "Ecological Integrity" was absent (pc = 0.29). Therefore, the poor ecological status of local stream waters might not be directly related to the presence of potentially threatening contaminant sources (the "Pressures"), but to ineffective monitoring of livestock farming and wastewater treatment activities that potentiate (accidental) releases of contaminants into the streams. The lack of a direct link "Pressures" - "Ecological Integrity" supported the results of pressure change versus IPtIN change scenarios. Regardless of some significant reductions of anthropogenic activity and population density until 2027, announced by the Portuguese Environmental Agency, the scenarios could not predict improvement of ecological status beyond the "moderate" category. The study recommendations were therefore to prevent contamination through proper implementation and monitoring of existing watershed management plans. The adequate treatment of domestic effluents and the control of livestock farming residues are urgent.
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Affiliation(s)
- A C P Fernandes
- Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, Ap. 1013, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal
| | - L F Sanches Fernandes
- Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, Ap. 1013, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal
| | - J P Moura
- Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, Ap. 1013, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal
| | - R M V Cortes
- Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, Ap. 1013, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal
| | - F A L Pacheco
- Chemistry Research Centre, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, Ap. 1013, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal.
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Abstract
This work aims to provide a comprehensive, wall-to-wall analysis of land use/cover changes in the continental areas of Portugal and Spain between 1990 and 2012. This overall objective is developed into two main research questions: (1) Whether differences between the extent and prevalence of changes exist between both countries and (2) which are the hotspots of change (areas where a given land use/cover transition dominates the landscape) in each country. We used Corine Land Cover in three different points in time (1990, 2000, 2012) to explore eight characteristic land cover transitions and carried out a cluster analysis at LAU2 level (municipalities in Spain, parishes in Portugal) that allowed to identify the areas in which each transition was dominant. The main findings include the decline of agricultural area and the increase of urbanized and artificial covers in both countries, but different trends followed by forest cover, with an increase in Spain and a decrease in Portugal. At the same time, the spatial analysis provided an overview of the main gradients of change related to tensions between agricultural intensification–extensification, on the one hand, and deforestation–afforestation, on the other.
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Evaluation of the Physical, Chemical and Thermal Properties of Portuguese Maritime Pine Biomass. SUSTAINABILITY 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/su10082877] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
A characterisation of Pinus pinaster Aiton. (Maritime Pine) woody biomass and ashes is presented in this study. Physical, thermal and chemical analysis, including density, moisture content, calorific value, proximate and ultimate analysis, were carried out. The fuel Energy Density (Ed) and the Fuelwood Value Index (FVI) were assessed by ranking the fuelwood quality. Furthermore, the determination of the ash metal elementals was performed. The results from this study indicated, for Pinus pinaster biomass tree components, carbon content ranging from 46.5 to 49.3%, nitrogen content from 0.13 to 1.18%, sulphur content from 0.056 to 0.148% and hydrogen content around 6–7%. The ash content in the tree components ranged from 0.22 to 1.92%. The average higher heating value (HHV) was higher for pine needles (21.61 MJ·kg−1). The Ed of 8.9 GJ·m−3 confirm the good potential of Pinus pinaster biomass tree components as fuel. The FVI ranked the wood stem (4658) and top (2861.8) as a better fuelwood and pine needles (394.2) as inferior quality. The chemical composition of the ashes revealed that the elemental contents are below the national and most European countries legislation guidelines for the employment of ash as a fertiliser.
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