Water quality modelling of the Mekong River basin: Climate change and socioeconomics drive flow and nutrient flux changes to the Mekong Delta

Effect of climate change on the water quality of Mediterranean rivers and alternatives to improve its status

Surface water (SW) quality is particularly vulnerable to increased concentrations of nutrients, and this issue may be exacerbated by climate change. Knowledge of the effects of temperature and rainfall on SW quality is required to take the necessary measures to achieve good SW status in the future. To address this, the aims of this study were threefold: (1) to assess how a changing climate may alter the nitrate, ammonium, phosphorus and biological oxygen demand status (BOD5) of SW; (2) assess the relationship between water quality and flow; and (3) simulate diffuse and point source pollution reduction scenarios in the Júcar River Basin District in the Mediterranean region. A regionalised long-term climate scenario was used following one Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) with the data incorporated into the coupling of hydrological and water quality models. According to these climate change scenarios, SW with poor nitrate, ammonium, phosphorus and BOD5 status are expected to increase in the future by factors of 1.3, 1.9, 4 and 4, respectively. Furthermore, median ammonium and phosphorus concentration may be doubled in months with low flows. Additional measures are required to maintain current status in the water bodies, and it is necessary to reduce at least 25% of diffuse nitrate pollution, and 50% of point loads of ammonium, phosphorus, and BOD5.

Modeling, challenges, and strategies for understanding impacts of climate extremes (droughts and floods) on water quality in Asia: A review

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are among the most expected and recognized consequences of climate change. Prediction of water quality parameters becomes more challenging with these extremes since water quality is strongly related to hydro-meteorological conditions and is particularly sensitive to climate change. The evidence linking the influence of hydro-meteorological factors on water quality provides insights into future climatic extremes. Despite recent breakthroughs in water quality modeling and evaluations of climate change's impact on water quality, climate extreme informed water quality modeling methodologies remain restricted. This review aims to summarize the causal mechanisms across climate extremes considering water quality parameters and Asian water quality modeling methods associated with climate extremes, such as floods and droughts. In this review, we (1) identify current scientific approaches to water quality modeling and prediction in the context of flood and drought assessment, (2) discuss the challenges and impediments, and (3) propose potential solutions to these challenges to improve understanding of the impact of climate extremes on water quality and mitigate their negative impacts. This study emphasizes that one crucial step toward enhancing our aquatic ecosystems is by comprehending the connections between climate extreme events and water quality through collective efforts. The connections between the climate indices and water quality indicators were demonstrated to better understand the link between climate extremes and water quality for a selected watershed basin.

A synthesis of hydroclimatic, ecological, and socioeconomic data for transdisciplinary research in the Mekong

The Mekong River basin (MRB) is a transboundary basin that supports livelihoods of over 70 million inhabitants and diverse terrestrial-aquatic ecosystems. This critical lifeline for people and ecosystems is under transformation due to climatic stressors and human activities (e.g., land use change and dam construction). Thus, there is an urgent need to better understand the changing hydrological and ecological systems in the MRB and develop improved adaptation strategies. This, however, is hampered partly by lack of sufficient, reliable, and accessible observational data across the basin. Here, we fill this long-standing gap for MRB by synthesizing climate, hydrological, ecological, and socioeconomic data from various disparate sources. The data- including groundwater records digitized from the literature-provide crucial insights into surface water systems, groundwater dynamics, land use patterns, and socioeconomic changes. The analyses presented also shed light on uncertainties associated with various datasets and the most appropriate choices. These datasets are expected to advance socio-hydrological research and inform science-based management decisions and policymaking for sustainable food-energy-water, livelihood, and ecological systems in the MRB.

Climate and landuse change enhance spatio-temporal variability of Dongjiang river flow and ammonia nitrogen

The adverse impacts of climate and landuse change are threatening the availability of water quantity and its quality, yet there are limited understandings in the response of water availability to changing environment at different spatio-temporal scales. Aimed at quantifying the individual and superimposed effects of climate and landuse change on streamflow and ammonia nitrogen (NH₃-N) load in the Dongjiang River Basin (DRB), we dynamically simulated the historical (1981-2010) and future (2030-2070) variation of runoff depth and NH₃-N load coupling multiple regional climate model and landuse data. The increase in runoff depth (avg. +233.9 mm) due to climate change was about 33 times greater than that caused by landuse change (avg. -7.2 mm). Especially in the downstream of DRB (Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Dongguan cities, etc.), the maximum rise of runoff depth under climate change was near twice compared with baseline period, indicating the dominant control of climate change on runoff. Also there existed higher coefficient of variation (C_v) value of runoff in the dry season of downstream DRB, contributing potential great fluctuation in runoff. Besides, the variation of NH₃-N load was jointly influenced by climate and landuse change, revealing an offset or amplification effect. Moreover, the variability of NH₃-N load (C_v value as the metric) increased from 2030, reached a maximum in 2050, following decreased to 2070. The spatial distribution of NH₃-N load, in general, presented a downward trend and concentrated near the water body, while the monthly average NH₃-N load showed distinct peaks in spring and late summer temporally. Overall, the results highlight the significance of investigating the water availability under changing environment and more adaptive strategies should be proposed for better basin water management.

A partial least squares-path model of environmental degradation in the Paraopeba River, for rainy seasons after the rupture of B1 tailings dam, Brumadinho, Brazil

The present study aimed to investigate the rupture of B1 tailings dam of Córrego do Feijão mine, which drastically affected the region of Brumadinho (Minas Gerais, Brazil). The contamination of water resources reached 155.3 km from the dam site. In the river channel, high concentrations of Mn, Al, As and Fe were detected and correlated to the spillage of the tailings in the river. The presence of the tailings also affected the chlorophyll-a content in the water, as well as the reflectance of riparian forests. With the increase of metal(oid) concentrations above permitted levels, water management authorities suspended the use of Paraopeba River as resource in the impacted areas, namely the drinking water supply to the Metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte. This study aimed to evaluate possible links between tailings distribution, river water quality, and environmental degradation, which worked as latent variables in partial least squares regression models. The latent variables were represented by numerous physical and chemical parameters of water and sediment, measured four times in 22 locations during the rainy season of 2019, in addition to stream flow and to NDVI evaluated in satellite images processed daily. The modeling results suggested a relationship between river flow turbulence and increased arsenic release from sand fractions, as well as desorption of Mn from metal oxides, both representing causes of water quality reduction. They also revealed increasing iron concentrations affecting the forest NDVI (greening), which was interpreted as environmental degradation. The increase of chlorophyll-a concentrations (related with turbidity decreases), as well as the increase of river flows (responsible for dilution effects), seemed to work out as attenuators of degradation. Although applied to a specific site, our modeling approach can be transposed to equivalent dam failures and climate contexts, helping water resource management authorities to decide upon appropriate recovery solutions.

Cholangiocarcinoma protective factors in Greater Mekong Subregion: Critical issues for joint planning to sustainably solve regional public health problems

Although Opisthorchis viverrini (OV), lifestyle, and diet co-factors have a relatively high prevalence in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) population, cumulative (0–74) incidence rates of cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) do not reach 5% in this region. Other co-factors must influence, but in this study, we only highlighted positive factors for guiding joint planning to address public health problems at the regional level. Therefore, we aimed to study prevalence and factors associated with CCA incidence focusing only on protective factors. A cross-sectional analytic study was carried out from June to October 2017. Participants with informed consent completed the questionnaires. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze general information. Primary variables were classified into high and low levels by mean. Logistic regression was employed to investigate the correlation between interesting variables and the overall risk level of CCA. The overall prevalence of CCA protective factors of the whole region was knowledge (61.39%), health beliefs (42.32%), prevention behavior (31.93%), and community participation (14.53%). When considering the proportions at a high level, they were 49.53%, 53.72%, 35.37%, and 49.67%, respectively. Significant factors associated with CCA prevention were females with secondary or vocational education, a high level of perceived seriousness and benefits, and community participation. These findings are likely to be helpful for both the public and administrators. First, it can be information for people to be aware of CCA risk. Second, policy-driven authorities at the local or regional level should apply the critical issues from this study for joint planning to sustainably solve regional public health problems.

Groundwater in Southern Vietnam: Understanding geochemical processes to better preserve the critical water resource

A thorough understanding of groundwater geochemical characteristics and dominant hydro(bio)geochemical processes in the aquifers is valuable for sustainable groundwater protection. With this respect, this study provides a comprehensive assessment of hydrogeochemical characteristics of groundwater in sedimentary aquifers of the Southern region of Vietnam. The dataset comprised 291 water samples collected in rainy and dry seasons from 155 wells, and their chemical compositions of dissolved ions (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺, K⁺, HCO₃^-, Cl^-, SO₄^2-, NO₃^-, NH₄⁺, Fe, total dissolved solids) and pH. We calculated the groundwater quality index to determine the suitability of groundwater for drinking purposes. Accordingly, about 47% of groundwater samples range from poor to unsuitable quality for drinking purposes, in which total dissolved solid (TDS) and high iron concentrations are primary factors. We also examined hydrogeochemical characteristics by multivariate statistical analyses (Hierarchical Cluster Analysis and Principal Component Analysis). The results demonstrated four groups of water: fresh groundwater (TDS < 1 g/L) in the highland (Group 1), lowland fresh-to-saline groundwater (2a), lowland saline groundwater (2b), and lowland saline/acidic groundwater (2c). Although the highland area is currently not impacted by salinization, the contamination by nitrate and chloride associated with a dense urban population and agricultural practices is deteriorating its fresh groundwater resources. On the other hand, the lowland area of Southern Vietnam is highly vulnerable to seawater intrusion (groups 2b and 2c). Only 34% out of 191 samples collected in the lowland area of southern Vietnam remained fresh. In this light, this study depicted the specific geographical location for various groundwater groups in Southern Vietnam. This finding is significant to assist water scientists and decision-makers in implementing targetted groundwater management measures as prevention and protection strategies should be tailored to groundwater geochemical characteristics and the dominant hydro(bio)geochemical processes.

On the development of a regional climate change adaptation plan: Integrating model-assisted projections and stakeholders' perceptions

Climate change is expected to have strong social-ecological implications, with global but especially regional and local challenges. To assess the climatic vulnerability of a given territory, it is necessary to evaluate its exposure to climate change and its adaptive capacity. This study describes the development of an Action Plan for Adapting to Climate Change in the Tâmega and Sousa Region, a mountainous inter-municipal community in the North of Portugal. The goals were to identify the main impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture, forests, biodiversity, and socioeconomic sectors, as well as to develop a plan, merging local and scientific knowledge through a transdisciplinary lens. This study describes an approach that combines modelling methods, applied in the different sectors, and participatory methods, based on the analysis of the perceptions of local actors. Results indicate that the target region will experience a generalized increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation, which will negatively impact all studied social-ecological dimensions. Overall, local business and institutional agents perceive the primary and tourism sectors as the most vulnerable in the region. The described framework demonstrates the engagement process between relevant scientific experts and local practitioners, as well as how it is critical to understand the impacts of climate change and to support the co-design of an adaptation plan, which in turn can guide political and economic decision-making towards effective implementation of the plan. In addition, the difficulties and challenges encountered during this process are discussed to support future plans and strategies for local adaptation.

Linking water environmental factors and the local watershed landscape to the chlorophyll a concentration in reservoir bays

The frequency of harmful algal blooms caused by eutrophication is increasing globally, posing serious threats to human health and economic development. Reservoir bays, affected by water environment and local watershed landscape, are more prone to eutrophication and algal blooms. The chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration is an important indicator for the degree of eutrophication and algal bloom. Exploring the complex relationships between water environment and landscape background, and Chl a concentration in the reservoir bays are crucial for ensuring high-quality drinking water from reservoirs. In this study, we monitored Chl a concentrations of 66 bays in Danjiangkou Reservoir and the related water quality parameters (e.g., water temperature, turbidity, nutrients) in waterbodies of these reservoir bays in the storage and discharge periods from 2015 to 2018. Partial least squares-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to quantify the relationship between water environmental factors and watershed landscapes, and Chl a concentrations in reservoir bays. The results showed that mean Chl a concentration was higher in storage period than that in discharge period. Two optimal PLS-SEMs explained 66.8% and 53.6% of Chl a concentration variation in the storage and discharge periods, respectively. The net effect of water chemistry on Chl a concentration was more pronounced during the discharge period (total effect = 0.61, 37% of the total effect on Chl a), while the net effect of land-use composition on Chl a concentration was more significant during the storage period (total effect = 0.57, 30% of the total effect on Chl a). The landscape pattern had significant indirect effects on Chl a concentration, especially during the discharge period (indirect effect = -0.31, 19% of the total effect on Chl a). Our results provide valuable information for managers to make rational decisions, thereby contributing to the prevention of eutrophication and algal blooms in reservoir bays.

Water quality prospective in Twenty First Century: Status of water quality in major river basins, contemporary strategies and impediments: A review

Water quality improvement is one of the top priorities in the global agenda endorsed by United Nation. In this review manuscript, a holistic view of water quality degradation such as concerned pollutants, source of pollution, and its consequences in major river basins around the globe (at least 1 from each continent and a total of 16 basins) is presented. Additionally, nine contemporary techniques such as field scale evaluation, watershed scale evaluation, strategies to identify critical source areas, optimization strategies for placement of best management practices (BMPs), social component in watershed modeling, machine learning algorithms to address water quality problems in complex natural systems concomitant with spatial heterogeneity, establishing a total maximum daily loads (TMDLs), remote sensing in monitoring water quality, and developing water quality index are discussed. Next, the existing barriers to improve water quality are classified into primary and secondary impediments. A detail discussion of three primary impediments (climate change, urbanization and industrial activities, and agriculture) and ten secondary impediments (availability of water quality data, complexity of system, lack of skilled person, environmental legislation, fragmented mandate, limitation in resources, environmental awareness, resistance to change, alteration of nutrient ratio by river damming, and emerging pollutants) are illustrated. Finally, considering all the existing knowledge gaps pertaining to contemporary strategies, a future direction of water quality research is outlined to significantly improve the water quality around the globe.

Impact of dams and climate change on suspended sediment flux to the Mekong delta

The livelihoods of millions of people living in the world's deltas are deeply interconnected with the sediment dynamics of these deltas. In particular a sustainable supply of fluvial sediments from upstream is critical for ensuring the fertility of delta soils and for promoting sediment deposition that can offset rising sea levels. Yet, in many large river catchments this supply of sediment is being threatened by the planned construction of large dams. In this study, we apply the INCA hydrological and sediment model to the Mekong River catchment in South East Asia. The aim is to assess the impact of several large dams (both existing and planned) on the suspended sediment fluxes of the river. We force the INCA model with a climate model to assess the interplay of changing climate and sediment trapping caused by dam construction. The results show that historical sediment flux declines are mostly caused by dams built in PR China and that sediment trapping will increase in the future due to the construction of new dams in PDR Lao and Cambodia. If all dams that are currently planned for the next two decades are built, they will induce a decline of suspended sediment flux of 50% (47-53% 90% confidence interval (90%CI)) compared to current levels (99 Mt/year at the delta apex), with potentially damaging consequences for local livelihoods and ecosystems.

Impacts of Climate Change and Population Growth on River Nutrient Loads in a Data Scarce Region: The Upper Awash River (Ethiopia)

Assessing the impact of climate change and population growth on river water quality is a key issue for many developing countries, where multiple and often conflicting river water uses (water supply, irrigation, wastewater disposal) are placing increasing pressure on limited water resources. However, comprehensive water quality datasets are often lacking, thus impeding a full-scale data-based river water quality assessment. Here we propose a model-based approach, using both global datasets and local data to build an evaluation of the potential impact of climate changes and population growth, as well as to verify the efficiency of mitigation measures to curb river water pollution. The upper Awash River catchment in Ethiopia, which drains the city of Addis Ababa as well as many agricultural areas, is used as a case-study. The results show that while decreases in runoff and increases in temperature due to climate change are expected to result in slightly decreased nutrient concentrations, the largest threat to the water quality of the Awash River is population growth, which is expected to increase nutrient loads by 15 to 20% (nitrate) and 30 to 40% (phosphorus) in the river by the second half of the 21st century. Even larger increases are to be expected downstream of large urban areas, such as Addis Ababa. However, improved wastewater treatment options are shown to be efficient in counteracting the negative impact of population growth and returning water pollution to acceptable levels.

Assessing Land-Cover Effects on Stream Water Quality in Metropolitan Areas Using the Water Quality Index

This study evaluated the influence of different land-cover types on the overall water quality of streams in urban areas. To ensure national applicability of the results, this study encompassed ten major metropolitan areas in South Korea. Using cluster analysis, watersheds were classified into three land-cover types: Urban-dominated (URB), agriculture-dominated (AGR), and forest-dominated (FOR). For each land-cover type, factor analysis (FA) was used to ensure simple and feasible parameter selection for developing the minimum water quality index (WQImin). The chemical oxygen demand, fecal coliform (total coliform for FOR), and total nitrogen (nitrate-nitrogen for URB) were selected as key parameters for all land-cover types. Our results suggest that WQImin can minimize bias in water quality assessment by reducing redundancy among correlated parameters, resulting in better differentiation of pollution levels. Furthermore, the dominant land-cover type of watersheds, not only affects the level and causes of pollution, but also influences temporal patterns, including the long-term trends and seasonality, of stream water quality in urban areas in South Korea.

Simulation of streamflow and instream loads of total suspended solids and nitrate in a large transboundary river basin using Source model and geospatial analysis

The management of LULC changes in transboundary river basins continues to challenge water resources managers due to the differences in development and conservation priorities of the countries sharing the basin. While various watershed models (WMs) exist to support decision making, basin-wide sustainable application of the instituted WM depends on the management priorities, resources, data availability, and knowledge gaps at national and sub-basin levels. Building on the results of our prior comparative analysis of WMs for a large transboundary river basin, we applied the 'Source' model to the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). The constructed LMB-Source model was evaluated based on its streamflow and instream total suspended solids (TSS) and nitrate loads simulative performances. A combination of predictive performance metrics (PPMs) and sophisticated hydrologic signatures were used to calibrate model parameters and diagnose the model performance. Calibration results indicated strong similarity between the simulated and observed time series data and were further confirmed by the validation results. The successful model calibration generated parameters that represent hydrologic response characteristics (HRCs) and overland TSS and nitrate generation and removal dynamics (GRDs) previously not available for the LMB. The HRCs and GRDs can be regionalised with physical attributes of the LMB in future studies which can be used to support the management of ungauged sub-basins. This study confirms Source's capability as a decision support tool for the management of transboundary river basins, and provides basin-specific values of HRCs and GRDs that can be used for a better evaluation of the potential effects of LULC changes.

Spatial characteristics of total phosphorus loads from different sources in the Lancang River Basin

Lancang River, the upstream reach of Mekong River, is a hotspot region in the sustainable management of water resources and environment as it is currently facing the deterioration of aquatic ecosystems. Nutrient balance (i.e., Phosphorus) in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin has become a highly disputed issue in recent years due to the construction of cascade hydropower stations. However, the estimation of the total phosphorus (TP) load faces great difficulties and challenges due to the absent measured water quality data. This study estimates the TP load based on the social economic data, analyzes the spatial distribution of TP and the contribution of different TP sources in the Lancang River basin under the level of social-economic development in 2014. Results show that the annual average TP load in the Lancang River Basin is 1.6 × 10⁴-3.9 × 10⁴ tons, which is at a very low level compared with other large-scale basins in China. The TP load from natural soil erosion dominates all other sources, accounting for 69%, followed by agricultural production and fertilization. In general, the TP load increases from upstream to downstream, but heterogeneity also exits in different regions under the influence of various factors, such as rainfall intensity, soil properties and human activities. The results reveal a holistic picture of TP load in the Lancang River Basin, which could provide a new perspective on the trans-border international river management.

Effect of local watershed landscapes on the nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in the waterbodies of reservoir bays

Reservoir bays, which are affected by the reservoir and watershed characteristics, are the initial and most sensitive areas in the evolution process of reservoir water quality. However, the relationship between the watershed characteristics and nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in reservoir bays is poorly understood. We selected 66 bays from the Danjiangkou Reservoir and sampled twice per year (storage and discharge periods) from 2015 to 2018 to monitor the total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentration in the waterbodies of the reservoir bays. Four types of watershed characteristic indices (topographic variables, soil variables, land-use composition, and landscape patterns) around these bays were obtained. We quantified the relationship between the TN and TP concentrations and watershed characteristics in the waterbodies of the reservoir bays using partial least squares regression (PLSR). The results showed that the mean concentrations of TN and TP in the storage period (TN:1.69 mg·L^-1, TP:0.088 mg·L^-1) were higher than those in the discharge period (TN:1.22 mg·L^-1, TP:0.063 mg·L^-1). The optimal PLSR models explained 67.9% and 82.5% of the TN concentration variability, and 65.4% and 67.2% of the TP concentration variability during the storage and discharge period, respectively. Based on the variable importance in the projection (VIP) values, soil erodibility had significant effects on the TN and TP concentrations. The key factors affecting the TN concentration were the slope gradient, basin relief, topographic wetness index, forest and agricultural land use, whereas the factors controlling the TP concentration were the landscape shape index, edge density, Shannon's diversity index and grass land use, although the TP concentration was also controlled by the patch density and contagion during the storage period, and by mean patch size and largest patch index during the discharge period. This study provides critical insights into sustainable landscape planning and effective reservoir water quality management.

A Subregional Model of System Dynamics Research on Surface Water Resource Assessment for Paddy Rice Production under Climate Change in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

Effective water management plays an important role in socioeconomic development in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). The impacts of climate change and human activities (that is, domestic consumption and industrial and agricultural activities) vary in different subregions of the delta. In order to provide intersectoral data for determining the significantly impacted subregions of the VMD, the present study simulated interactions between local climatic patterns, human activities, and water resources using a system dynamics modeling (SDM) approach with each subregion as an agent of the developed model. The average rainfall and temperature of 121 subregions in the VMD were collected during 1982–2012, and the future changes of climate by provinces were based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) by the end of 21st century. The assessment was based on the levels of impact of various factors, including (1) water consumption, (2) differences between evapotranspiration and rainfall, and (3) spatial distribution of salinity intrusion over the delta scale. In the coastal areas, as well as the central and upstream areas, water resources were projected to be affected by environmental changes, whereas the former, characterized by the lack of surface freshwater, would be affected at a greater scale during the dry season. Besides, the sea level rise would lead to an increase in negative impacts in the eastern coastal areas, suggesting that water-saving techniques should be applied not only for agriculture, but also for industry and domestic water consumption during the dry season. In addition, the south subregions (that is, the western subregions of the Hau River except for An Giang) were likely to be flooded due to the simulated high rainfall and seasonal rises of sea level during the wet season. Therefore, the alternative forms of settlement and livelihood should be considered toward balance management with changing delta dynamics.

Stable isotope characteristics of water resources in the coastal area of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

The stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen can provide useful insights into water origin and hydrological processes. The present study aims to investigate the characteristics of stable H/O isotopes of groundwater and surface water in a coastal area of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. Isotopes and chloride concentrations of surface water show a highly seasonal and linearly spatial variability, depending on the distance to the sea. The seasonal variation of upstream discharge and rainfall plays an important role in changes of the isotopic compositions and chloride concentrations. Tide also influences on chloride concentrations of surface water while it does not change the isotopic compositions. Evaporation plays a crucial role in changes of isotopic compositions, while the influence of freshwater/seawater mixing on isotopic variabilities is negligible. Groundwater has a spatial heterogeneity in isotopic compositions and chloride concentrations, reflecting different recharge sources and seawater intrusion processes. Groundwater in shallow aquifers originates from rainfall and surface water with small evaporative losses, and it experienced different magnitudes of mixing with seawater. Groundwater in deep aquifers might be recharged by open-surface water evaporation in the last glacial age with minor impacts of seawater intrusion on these aquifers.