Severe drought events inducing large decrease of net primary productivity in mainland China during 1982-2015

Meteorological drought migration characteristics based on an improved spatiotemporal structure approach in the Loess Plateau of China

The development of drought has spatial and temporal synchronization. Previous studies usually explore the spatial and temporal evolution of drought separately. Moreover, existing approaches are based on a fixed overlapping area and do not consider the variable drought cluster area during development. This study proposes an improved and simple approach to derive dynamic overlapping area threshold for 3-dimensional droughts extraction. Based on the one monthly Nonparametric Standardized Precipitation Index (NSPI), this improved approach was applied for investigating the migration characteristics of meteorological drought events in the Loess Plateau of China. Then, Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting model with Shapley additive explanation values were used to quantify the importance of driving factors on the dynamics of drought characteristics. The results showed that: (1) the improved approach has a better performance on identifying prolonged droughts than the method using a fixed overlap area threshold; (2) spatially, meteorological drought events with high severity (DS), long duration (DD), large effected area (DA) and fast migration velocity (DV) mainly occur in the central region; (3) temporally, droughts are expected to aggravate with significantly increased DS and DA which are mainly caused by increased temperature and vegetation; and (4) meteorological droughts have a preferred westward migration direction and three dominant migration paths, which are crucial for local drought prevention and control. The findings of this study provide new perspectives on drought migration characteristics, which are important for the exploration of drought-driven mechanisms, risk assessment and future prediction.

Drought characteristics and dominant factors across China: Insights from high-resolution daily SPEI dataset between 1979 and 2018

Drought, a complex phenomenon exacerbated by climate change, is influenced by various climate factors. The escalating global temperatures associated with climate change, impact precipitation patterns and water cycle processes, consequently intensifying the occurrence and severity of droughts. To effectively address and adapt to these challenges, it is crucial to identify the dominant climate factors driving drought events. In this study, we utilized the 1979-2018 Chinese meteorological forcing dataset to calculate the daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The Theil-Sen and Mann-Kendall (M-K) tests were employed to analyze the spatial and temporal trends of drought severity and duration. Additionally, partial correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between climate factors (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET)) and drought characteristic (drought severity and duration). Through this comprehensive analysis, we aimed to identify the primary factors influencing drought severity and duration. The findings revealed the following key results: (1) Over the 40-year period from 1979 to 2018, drought trends in China and its seven climate divisions exhibited an increasing pattern. (2) During drought periods, most regions exhibited a positive correlation between PET and drought severity and duration, while precipitation demonstrated a negative correlation. However, certain areas experiencing severe drought displayed a negative correlation between PET and drought severity and duration, precipitation demonstrated a positive correlation with drought severity and duration. (3) PET emerged as the dominant climatic factor for meteorological drought in the majority of China. These findings contribute valuable insights for policymakers in the development of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. By understanding the dominant climate factors driving drought events, policymakers can implement effective measures to mitigate the adverse socioeconomic and environmental impacts associated with climate change.

Refined assessment of space-time changes, influencing factors and socio-economic impacts of the terrestrial ecosystem quality: A case study of the GBA

The terrestrial ecosystem is the cradle of energy and material basis for human survival and development. However, there are large research deficits in accurately and finely depicting the quality of the terrestrial ecosystem (QTE) and assessing its changing triggers' contribution. Here, we summarized three major principles for selecting image sources in remote sensing data fusion. A continuous 30-m net vegetation productivity (NPP) dataset during 2000-2019 for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) was derived by using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach model and pre-fused normalized difference vegetation index. The factors' contributions to the QTE changes were quantitatively assessed. The role of the QTE in affecting the socio-economic and its behind mechanisms was quantitatively investigated. The results showed that: (1) High-quality images sources are the preference for spatio-temporal fusion of remote sensing data. Images with close month, the same season and year, and sensors should be then selected. Images of different sensors with similar spectral bandwidth, the ones from adjacent years and seasons, can be alternately considered. (2) Fine-resolution NPP has higher accuracy than coarse-resolution NPP and has marked advantages in finely characterizing the QTE. In the past 20 years, the QTE in the GBA has shown a fluctuating increasing trend (0.20 Tg C/yr). (3) Human activities contributed 54.19% of the QTE changes in the GBA, and dominates the QTE changes in the central rapidly urbanizing areas. Residual factors accounted for an overall contribution ratio of 35.71%. Climate change dominants the peripheral forest variations in the GBA. (4) In the GBA, the improvement of QTE has a significant positive socio-economic impact, it contributes to the GDP increment firstly then the GDP aggregate indirectly. Our results highlight that it is of great urgent to estimate long-term continuous NPP with high spatio-temporal resolution globally. Controlling strategies should be implemented to reduce factitious impacts on QTE. High level of ecological and environmental protection promotes the sustainable development.

Impacts of LULC and climate changes on hydropower generation and development: A systematic review

There is a growing concern on a global scale that the world should transition towards the utilisation of energy-efficient technologies. Hydropower plays a very significant part in the fight against climate change, and as a result, it lessens the impact that climate changewill have on our ability to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Both the effectiveness of hydropower generation and the amount of streamflow are impacted by climate change as well as land use and land cover (LULC). Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to conduct a literature review on the topic of the past and future effects of climate, land use, and land cover changes on hydropower generation. This review will be based on the entries found in a number of reliable databases. A systematic literature review was carried out to analyse how LULC and climate change will affect hydropower generation and development. The research was based on 158 pieces of relevant literature that had been reviewed by experts and indexed in Scopus, Google Scholar, and ScienceDirect. The review was carried out to determine three goals in mind: the impact of climate change on hydropower generation and development; the impact of climate change on streamflow; and the combined impact of changes in climate and changes in LULC on hydropower. The findings bring to light the primary factors contributing to climate change as well as shifts in LULC which are essential to the generation of hydropower on all scales. The study identifies factors such as precipitation, temperature, floods, and droughts as examples of climate change. Deforestation, afforestation, and urbanisation are identified as the primary causes of changes in LULC over the past several decades. These changes have a negative impact on the generation and development of hydropower.

Using composite system index to identify China's ecological and socio-economic transition zone

Regions with synthetic geographical gradients tend to exhibit distinct ecological transitions. As a compound ecosystem, transition zone can provide a basis for decision-making in the sustainable ecological management by investigating its boundary and complexity. To determine the characteristics of the transition zone where natural ecological and socio-economic factors interact, a conceptual framework and a quantitative identification method for the ecotone of coupled human and natural systems have been proposed. The composite system index can be used to ascertain the coupling intensity, coupling direction, and ecological transition of the system. Taking China as an example, this study showed evidence of the existence of a tremendous amount of ecological and socio-economic transition zone (complex coupled areas) between the east and west of China, and sporadic ecotone in other regions of the country. This transition zone accounted for about 1/4 of China's land surface area, and had a fragile environment that faced challenges of environmental protection and economic development. In the area across the Hu Line, human and natural factors jointly explain a low proportion of the variance in ecological and socio-economic transition zone (the complexity of coupled systems, with 62.01% of unexplained proportion higher than that in other regions). In this region, the topographic position index was the critical element associated with the transition zone, and accounted for nearly 20% of the variation of composite system index. The discovery and characterization of the ecological and socio-economic transition zone is crucial for understanding its uncertainty and diversity and the complex of coupled ecosystems.

A Framework on Analyzing Long-Term Drought Changes and Its Influential Factors Based on the PDSI

Drought is one of the most frequent and most widespread natural disasters worldwide, significantly impacting agricultural production and the ecological environment. An investigation of long-term drought changes and its influencing factors provides not only an understanding of historical droughts but also a scientific basis for the protection of future water resources. This study investigated the temporal characteristics of drought in a study site located in the center of Southwest China (SWC) over a 700-year period (AD 1300–2005) using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The linkage between drought and its influencing factors is discussed. An algorithm based on the random forest (RF) method was proposed to analyze the dynamic influence of the factors on drought. We also examined the linkages between the demise of two dynasties and historical drought events. The results showed that the study site was a drought-prone area in the study period and experienced a non-significant drying trend in all centuries, except for the 17th century; a total of 232 droughts were detected in the study site from AD 1300–2005. The wavelet spectrum of the PDSI series showed the existence of 4-, 8-, 16-, 32-, and 128-year-periods. A strong correlation existed between the sunspot numbers and the PDSI. The correlation of the period between the PDSI and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) series in the same frequency domain was weak, while the ENSO exhibited a strong interaction with the PDSI in some time periods. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and PDSI had no resonance period in the low-frequency region, but there was a period of 80–130 years in the high-frequency region. The relative rates of influence of the ENSO, sunspot numbers, and PDO during AD 1700–1996 were 38.40%, 31.81%, and 29.8%, respectively. However, the mechanism of the interaction between droughts and the influential factors is complex, and the dominant factor changed over time. The analysis of long-term drought changes based on the PDSI series may provide clues to understand the development of historical events.

Elevational Gradient of Climate-Driving Effects on Cropland Ecosystem Net Primary Productivity in Alpine Region of the Southwest China

Investigating elevational gradient of climate driving effects on cropland ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) plays an important role in food security in alpine region. We simulated cropland NPP by coupling a remote sensing model with an ecosystem process model and explored elevational gradient of climate driving effects on it in an alpine region of the southwest China during 1981–2014. The results showed that cropland NPP increased significantly with a rate of 3.85 gC m−2 year−1 year−1 under significant increasing solar radiation and climate warming and drying, among which the increasing solar radiation was the main driving factor of the increasing NPP. The driving effect of climate warming on cropland NPP shifted from negative at low elevations to positive at high elevations, which was caused by the fragile ecosystem characteristics and frequent drought at low elevations and a higher temperature sensitivity of cropland ecosystem at high elevations. Different effects of climate warming on NPP change at different elevations caused different results when we analyzed the climate-driving effects on cropland NPP at different spatial scales. These results reminded us that we should take the elevational gradient of climate driving effects into account when we manage food security in the alpine region.

Amplified signals of soil moisture and evaporative stresses across Poland in the twenty-first century

In Poland, recent summer droughts have had devastating environmental, social, and economic consequences, but the trend of growing season dryness remains unclear. This study focuses on the soil moisture and evaporative stress conditions, analyzed in a multiyear period between 1981 and 2019. Country scale trends in growing season drought severities are assessed using indices derived from the model-based estimates of soil moisture and evapotranspiration. These are compared with indices derived from meteorological variables. Soil droughts are assessed by the Standardized Soil Index (SSI), while the ecological droughts are related to evapotranspiration by the Standardized Evaporative Stress Ratio (SESR). Moreover, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI) are used for comparison. A Drought-Prone Area (DPA) is delineated based on a criterion defined as simultaneous occurrence of statistically significant drying trends in surface and root zone soil moisture and evaporative stress. It was found that soil and ecological drought severities have remarkably increased in the growing season. This confirms the hypothesis that intensified soil drying is accompanied by intensified water stress imprinted in evapotranspiration. The most severe drought sequence has occurred in recent years, amplified by exceptionally high air temperature, low precipitation, and high deficit in the climatic water balance. The highest correlation is observed between annual growing season drought severities derived from the SSI and SESR; only SPEI approximates an increasing trend, while the SPI and sc-PDSI do not follow such a trajectory. The study shows an almost contiguous spatial pattern of DPA, which takes 42% of the country. One important implication of this study is that soil moisture and evapotranspiration should be considered in assessing drought severity in addition to traditionally used meteorological variables.

Impacts of Drought and Climatic Factors on Vegetation Dynamics in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin, China

Understanding the impacts of drought and climate change on vegetation dynamics is of great significance in terms of formulating vegetation management strategies and predicting future vegetation growth. In this study, Pearson correlation analysis was used to investigate the correlations between drought, climatic factors and vegetation conditions, and linear regression analysis was adopted to investigate the time-lag and time-accumulation effects of climatic factors on vegetation coverage based on the standardized evapotranspiration deficit index (SEDI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and gridded meteorological dataset in the Yellow River Basin (YLRB) and Yangtze River Basin (YTRB), China. The results showed that (1) the SEDI in the YLRB showed no significant change over time and space during the growing season from 1982 to 2015, whereas it increased significantly in the YTRB (slope = 0.013/year, p < 0.01), and more than 40% of the area showed a significant trend of wetness. The NDVI of the two basins, YLRB and YTRB, increased significantly at rate of 0.011/decade and 0.016/decade, respectively (p < 0.01). (2) Drought had a significant impact on vegetation in 49% of the YLRB area, which was mainly located in the northern region. In the YTRB, the area significantly affected by drought accounted for 21% of the total area, which was mainly distributed in the Sichuan Basin. (3) In the YLRB, both temperature and precipitation generally had a one-month accumulated effect on vegetation conditions, while in the YTRB, temperature was the major factor leading to changes in vegetation. In most of the area of the YTRB, the effect of temperature on vegetation was also a one-month accumulated effect, but there was no time effect in the Sichuan Basin. Considering the time effects, the contribution of climatic factors to vegetation change in the YLRB and YTRB was 76.7% and 63.2%, respectively. The explanatory power of different vegetation types in the two basins both increased by 2% to 6%. The time-accumulation effect of climatic factors had a stronger explanatory power for vegetation growth than the time-lag effect.

Decoupling Relationship between Urbanization and Carbon Sequestration in the Pearl River Delta from 2000 to 2020

Rapid urbanization has a significant impact on the ecological environment. Net primary productivity (NPP) can effectively reflect the growth of urban vegetation and the carbon sequestration capacity of an ecosystem. Taking the rapidly growing Pearl River Delta (PRD) as our study area, the relative contributions of human activities and climate change to NPP were analyzed using an improved two-step method based on residual trend analysis. The decoupling index was used to compare the coordinated development of socioeconomic factors and the NPP in different time periods. This study lays the foundation for formulating comprehensive and reasonable urban low-carbon development measures. The results showed that (1) NPP decreased significantly before 2010, but by 2019, NPP in most regions of the PRD showed a slight increase. The NPP of new urban land was better than that of original urban land. (2) The negative contribution of climatic factors to NPP was clearer than that of human activities, and human activities contributed positively to NPP outside urban land. (3) The decoupling status of socioeconomic factors and NPP is improving, and the degree of decoupling in 2010–2019 was higher than that in 2000–2010. In conclusion, as the first forest urban agglomeration in China, the PRD has shown a good implementation of carbon sequestration policies, which can provide a reference for the coordinated development of urbanization and carbon sequestration.

The spatiotemporal variations and propagation of droughts in Plateau Mountains of China

Drought incidents and the pressure on water resources have increased in recent years, which has threatened sustainable development. Recently, research has been conducted on drought propagation. However, few studies have investigated the characteristics and mechanisms of drought propagation in plateau mountainous regions with complex topography, which limits the efforts to mitigate drought. We used the Longchuan River Basin (LRB) in Southwest China as a case study to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts and the process of drought propagation in plateau mountainous regions. Our results demonstrated that: (1) the variation in the intensity, frequency, and coverage of droughts indicated that meteorological droughts and hydrological droughts were increasingly serious, while agricultural droughts were eased from 2000 to 2015; (2) the propagation time between different types of droughts was approximately 2 months; and (3) the propagation sequences of droughts varied by altitude; in particular, agricultural droughts propagated to hydrological droughts at higher altitudes, and the opposite occurred at lower altitudes. We concluded that elevation plays a critical role in the time-space differentiation of drought propagation in plateau mountains. More attention should be paid to the spatial differentiation of drought propagation based on land use under different topographic conditions. The results of this study can provide a new perspective for future drought propagation studies.

Drought Monitoring over Yellow River Basin from 2003–2019 Using Reconstructed MODIS Land Surface Temperature in Google Earth Engine

Drought is one of the most complex and least-understood environmental disasters that can trigger environmental, societal, and economic problems. To accurately assess the drought conditions in the Yellow River Basin, this study reconstructed the Land Surface Temperature (LST) using the Annual Temperature Cycle (ATC) model and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Vegetation Health Index (VHI), and Temperature-Vegetation Drought Index (TVDI), which are four typical remote sensing drought indices, were calculated. Then, the air temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture data were used to evaluate the applicability of each drought index to different land types. Finally, this study characterized the spatial and temporal patterns of drought in the Yellow River Basin from 2003 to 2019. The results show that: (1) Using the LST reconstructed by the ATC model to calculate the drought index can effectively improve the accuracy of drought monitoring. In most areas, the reconstructed TCI, VHI, and TVDI are more reliable for monitoring drought conditions than the unreconstructed VCI. (2) The four drought indices (TCI, VCI, VH, TVDI) represent the same temporal and spatial patterns throughout the study area. However, in some small areas, the temporal and spatial patterns represented by different drought indices are different. (3) In the Yellow River Basin, the drought level is highest in the northwest and lowest in the southwest and southeast. The dry conditions in the Yellow River Basin were stable from 2003 to 2019. The results in this paper provide a basis for better understanding and evaluating the drought conditions in the Yellow River Basin and can guide water resources management, agricultural production, and ecological protection of this area.

Spatial identification and determinants of trade-offs among multiple land use functions in Jiangsu Province, China

Understanding the relationships among multiple land use functions (LUFs) is crucial for land-based spatial planning that can guide targeted land use policy-making in complex socio-ecological systems. However, few studies concerned the interactions among various LUFs integrating the issues of economy, environment, and society at a fine scale. In this study, we quantified 12 LUFs using a geospatial model and statistical analysis at the grid scale in Jiangsu Province. Then, we identified the relationships among three primary LUFs-agricultural production function (APF), urban-rural living function (ULF), and ecological maintenance function (EMF)-and further explored the determinants of LUF trade-offs aimed to provide a reference for policy-makers to make decisions in future land use planning and management. The results revealed that the high trade-off areas for APF and ULF are mainly distributed in central and northern Jiangsu, and the trade-offs for both APF-EMF and ULF-EMF were higher in the area covered with water and forest. The determinants of LUF trade-offs mainly refers to land use/land cover, potential evapotranspiration, and vegetation coverage ratio. Moreover, landscape configuration metrics and distance to the nearest county and nearest road also have remarkable impacts on the trade-offs of APF-EMF and ULF-EMF. Finally, we proposed that the concepts of LUF trade-offs should be incorporated into the processes of delineating boundaries for urban growth, farmland, and natural areas. We also propose that land consolidation projects should be implemented in an orderly manner to alleviate LUF trade-offs.

Spatiotemporal Drought Risk Assessment Considering Resilience and Heterogeneous Vulnerability Factors: Lempa Transboundary River Basin in The Central American Dry Corridor

Drought characterization and risk assessment are of great significance due to drought’s negative impact on human health, economy, and ecosystem. This paper investigates drought characterization and risk assessment in the Lempa River basin in Central America. We applied the Standardized Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (SEDI) for drought characterization and drought hazard index (DHI) calculation. Although SEDI’s applicability is theoretically proven, it has been rarely applied. Drought risk is generally derived from the interactions between drought hazard (DHI) and vulnerability (DVI) indices but neglects resilience’s inherent impact. Accordingly, we propose incorporating DHI, DVI, and drought resilience index (DREI) to calculate drought risk index (DRI). Since system factors are not equally vulnerable, i.e., they are heterogeneous, our methodology applies the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to find the weights of the selected factors for the DVI computation. Finally, we propose a geometric mean method for DRI calculation. Results show a rise in DHI during 2006–2010 that affected DRI. We depict the applicability of SEDI via its relationship with El Nino-La Nina and El Salvador’s cereal production. This research provides a systematic drought risk assessment approach that is useful for decision-makers to allocate resources more smartly or intervene in Drought Risk Reduction (DRR). This research is also useful for those interested in socioeconomic drought.

Decomposing the global carbon balance pressure index: evidence from 77 countries

Understanding the relationship between carbon emissions and vegetation carbon sequestration is essential for reducing the greenhouse effect. In this study, we constructed a carbon balance pressure index to measure the eco-environment pressure caused by carbon emissions in 77 countries from 2000 to 2015, and the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition method was used to identify the key factors related to carbon balance pressure. As the change in vegetation carbon sequestration is relatively stable, carbon emissions have become the direct cause of the rise in the global carbon balance pressure. The carbon balance pressure in advanced economies decreased slowly, while that in emerging economies increased but the growth rate decreased. The decomposition results showed that carbon intensity is the main factor restraining the rise of carbon balance pressure, while GDP per capita and land population pressure are the main driving forces, and vegetation carbon sequestration intensity plays only a small role. Further analysis showed that the restraining effect of carbon intensity can offset the incremental effect of GDP per capita in advanced economies, and the vegetation carbon sequestration intensity also has a positive impact, but not in emerging economies. Besides, different factors play different roles depending on the country. The conclusions were also supported by various robustness tests.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity on an Intensively-Used Estuarine Alluvial Island

Net Primary Productivity (NPP) can effectively reflect the characteristics and strength of the response to external disturbances on estuarine alluvial island ecosystems, which can provide evidence for regulating human development and utilization activities and improving blue carbon capacity. However, there are a few studies on NPP of estuarine alluvial islands. We established a model based on a Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) to estimate NPP on Chongming Island, a typical estuarine alluvial island, by considering the actual ecological characteristics of the island. The NPP of different land-cover types and protected areas in different years and seasons were estimated using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System as the main tools. Correlations between NPP and Remote Sensing-based spatially heterogeneous factors were then conducted. In the last 30 years, the mean NPP of Chongming Island initially increased and then slowly decreased, while total NPP gradually increased. In 2016–2017, Chongming Island total NPP was 422.32 Gg C·a−1, and mean NPP was 287.84 g C·m−2·a−1, showing significant seasonal differences. NPP showed obvious spatial differentiation in both land-cover and protected area types, resulting from joint influences of natural and human activities. Chongming Island vegetation growth status and cover were the main factors that positively affected NPP. Soil surface humidity increased NPP, while soil salinity, surface temperature, and surface aridity were important NPP limiting factors.

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Drought Events and Their Effects on Vegetation: A Case Study in Southern Tibet, China

Frequent droughts in a warming climate tend to induce the degeneration of vegetation. Quantifying the response of vegetation to variations in drought events is therefore crucial for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems. In this study, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated using the precipitation data sourced from the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD), and then the drought events in southern Tibet from 1982 to 2015 were identified based on the SPI index. The results showed that the frequency, severity, and intensity of drought events in southern Tibet decreased from 1982 to 2015, and the highest frequency of drought was found between 1993 and 2000. To evaluate the impact of drought events on vegetation, the vegetation characteristic indexes were developed based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the drought characteristics. The assessment of two drought events showed that the alpine grasslands and alpine meadows had high vegetation vulnerability (AI). The assessment of multiple drought events showed that responses of vegetation to drought were spatially heterogeneous, and the total explain rate of environmental factors to the variations in AI accounted for 40%. Among the many environmental factors investigated, the AI were higher at middle altitudes (2000–3000 m) than low altitudes (<2000 m) and high altitudes (3000–4500 m). Meanwhile, the silt soil fraction in the upper soil layer (0–30 cm) had the greatest positive correlation with AI, suggesting that areas with a high silt soil fraction were more sensitive to drought. The relative contribution rates of environmental factors were predicted by a multivariate linear regression (MLR) model. The silt soil fraction was found to make the greatest relative contribution (23.3%) to the changes in AI.

Impacts of preseason drought on vegetation spring phenology across the Northeast China Transect

Vegetation phenology is undergoing profound changes in response to the recent increases in the intensity and frequency of drought events. However, the mechanisms by which drought affects the start of the growing season (SGS) are poorly understood particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. Here, we identified varying degrees of preseason drought events and analyzed the sensitivity of the SGS to preseason drought across the Northeast China Transect (NECT). Our results showed that drought caused a delayed SGS in grassland ecosystems, but an advanced SGS within forest ecosystems. These contrasting responses to preseason drought reflected different adaptive strategies between vegetation types. The SGS was shown to be highly sensitive to short timescales drought (1-3 months) in semi-arid grasslands where annual precipitation is 200-300 mm (i.e. SAGE_200-300). Biomes within this region were found to be most vulnerable out of all the ecosystems to drought. Given the frequent nature of droughts in the mid-latitudes, a drought early warning system was recommended accompanied by improved modeling of how the SGS will be affected by intensified drought under future climate change.

Reservoir-Induced Hydrological Alterations Using Ecologically Related Hydrologic Metrics: Case Study in the Beijiang River, China

Anthropogenic activities have a tremendous impact on water ecosystems worldwide, especially in China. To quantitatively evaluate the hydrological alteration connected with aquatic lives and river ecological risks, we took the Beijiang River located in South China as the case study and used ecosurplus (defined as ecological carrying capacity exceeding ecological consumption)/ecodeficit (defined as ecological consumption exceeding carrying capacity) and Indicators of Hydrological Alterations to evaluate hydrological changes. The Ecologically Relevant Hydrologic Indicators were employed to select the key indices of Indicators of Hydrological Alterations, and the eco-environmental water demand calculation provide an effective way for the reservoir operation. Results showed that: (1) High flows contributed more to the ecodeficit, while low flows contributed more to the ecosurplus; (2) the ecodeficit in some parts of the river basin might exceed the ecosurplus after reservoir construction, especially along the main stream; and (3) the determination of eco-environmental water demand is a feasible way for improving the environment by controlling reservoirs. The current study can help guide the optimization of hydrological operation in the basin toward making the ecosystem healthier and has potential to further provide a reference for other basins in terms of hydrological alterations driven by anthropogenic activities.

Flood Risk Assessment and Regionalization from Past and Future Perspectives at Basin Scale

Flooding is a major natural disaster that has brought tremendous losses to mankind throughout the ages. Even so, floods can be controlled by appropriate measures to minimize loss and damage. Flood risk assessment is an essential analytic step in preventing floods and reducing losses. Identifying previous flood risk and predicting future features are conducive to understanding the changing patterns and laws of flood risk. Taking the Dongjiang River basin as a study case, we assessed and regionalized flood risk in 1990, 2000, and 2010 from the past perspective and explored dynamic expansion during 1990-2010. Then, we projected land-use type, population, and gross domestic product in 2030 and 2050 and finally assessed and regionalized the risk from a future perspective. Results show that areas with very high risk accounted for 14.98-18.08% during 1990-2010; approximately 13.90% areas of the basin transformed from lower-level risk to higher-level risk whereas 9.07% fell from a higher level to a lower level during the period. For the future scenario, areas with very high and high risk in 2030 and 2050 are expected to account for 21.55% and 24.84%, respectively. Generally, our study can better identify changes in flood risk at a spatial scale and reveal the dynamic evolution rule, which provides a synthetical means of flood prevention and reduction, flood insurance, urban planning, and water resource management in the future under global climate change, especially for developing or high-speed urbanization regions.

Small and Medium-Scale River Flood Controls in Highly Urbanized Areas: A Whole Region Perspective

While rapid urbanization promotes social and economic development, it poses a serious threat to the health of rivers, especially the small and medium-scale rivers. Flood control for small and medium-scale rivers in highly urbanized areas is particularly important. The purpose of this study is to explore the most effective flood control strategy for small and medium-scale rivers in highly urbanized areas. MIKE 11 and MIKE 21 were coupled with MIKE FLOOD model to simulate flooding with the flood control standard, after which the best flooding control scheme was determined from a whole region perspective (both the mainstream and tributary conditions were considered). The SheGong River basin located near the Guangzhou Baiyun international airport in Guangzhou city over south China was selected for the case study. The results showed that the flooding area in the basin of interest accounts for 42% of the total, with maximum inundation depth up to 0.93 m under the 20-year return period of the designed flood. The flood-prone areas are the midstream and downstream where urbanization is high; however the downstream of the adjacent TieShan River is still able to bear more flooding. Therefore, the probable cost-effective flood control scheme is to construct two new tributaries transferring floodwater in the mid- and downstream of the SheGong River into the downstream of the TieShan River. This infers that flood control for small and medium-scale rivers in highly urbanized areas should not simply consider tributary flood regimes but, rather, involve both tributary and mainstream flood characters from a whole region perspective.