Impacts of meteorology and vegetation on surface dust concentrations in Middle Eastern countries

A coupled machine-learning and sensitivity analysis framework to link dust activity in the Tigris-Euphrates basin to climatic and human-induced drivers

This study analyzes the impact of climate-related stressors and water resources development in the Tigris-Euphrates basin on regional dust storm intensity and frequency. To this end, we first utilize remote sensing data on Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), wind speed, surface temperature, soil moisture, precipitation intensity and inter-arrival time, and vegetation cover to explore long-term trends. To identify dust hotspots, we introduce a normalized intensity-frequency index, which combines the daily average values of AOD intensity and frequency exceeding a predefined threshold. Finally, we use a coupled machine learning and sensitivity analysis framework to quantify the relative contribution of anthropogenic and climate-driven stressors of dust activity. To improve the accuracy of the sensitivity analysis, we employ a Gaussian copula to generate correlated samples that capture the natural dependencies between input variables. The results indicate that the AOD intensity-frequency index in northern Iraq and eastern Syria (NI-ES) showed a surge in dust activity from 2007 to 2012, doubling compared to other periods. Additionally, over 50 % of western Iran (WI) recorded AOD greater than 0.2 from 2007 to 2012, which aligned with peak dust emissions in NI-ES during the same period. Meanwhile, internal dust hotspots in WI constitute less than 0.4 % of its total area, which have an insignificant impact on dust emissions compared to external sources. Finally, the sensitivity analysis results identify soil surface temperature, desertification in NI-ES, and water development projects in southeastern Turkey (SET) as the primary contributors to dust events in WI, with total effect of 53 %, 36 %, and 34 %, respectively. In contrast, precipitation in NI-ES has the lowest total effect on dust events, contributing only 9 %.

Combined impact of heat and dust on diabetes hospitalization in Kuwait

INTRODUCTION

In Kuwait, a severe diabetes and obesity epidemic coexists with intense dust storms and harsh summer heat. While, theoretically, this interplay between dust, heat, and diabetes presents a serious public health problem, the empirical understanding of the actual risks remains limited. We hypothesized that increased exposure to heat and dust, independently and jointly, exacerbates the risk of hospitalization for diabetes patients.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We placed custom-designed particle samplers in Kuwait to collect daily dust samples for 2 years from 2017 to 2019. Samples were analyzed for elemental concentrations to identify and quantify dust pollution days. Temperature data were collected from meteorological stations. We then collected hospitalization data for unplanned diabetic admissions in all public hospitals in Kuwait. We used a case-crossover study design and conditional quasi-Poisson models to compare hospitalization days to control days within the same subject. Finally, we fitted generalized additive models to explore the smoothed interaction between temperature and dust days on diabetes hospitalization.

RESULTS

There were 11 155 unplanned diabetes hospitalizations over the study period. We found that each year, there was an excess of 282 diabetic admissions attributed to hot days (95% CI: -14 to 473). Additionally, for every 10 µg/m3 increase in dust levels, there were about 114 excess diabetic admissions annually (95% CI: 11 to 219). Compared with mild non-dusty days (33°C (0 µg/m3)), hot-dusty days jointly increased the relative risk of diabetic admissions from 1.11 at 42°C (85 µg/m3) to 1.36 at 42°C (150 µg/m3).

CONCLUSIONS

Both heat and dust seem to contribute to the increased diabetes morbidity, with combined hot-dusty conditions exacerbating these risks even further.

Identifying urban emission sources and their contribution to the oxidative potential of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Kuwait

In this study, we investigated the seasonal variations, chemical composition, sources, and oxidative potential of ambient PM2.5 (particles with a diameter of less than 2.5 μm) in Kuwait City. The sampling campaign was conducted within the premises of Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research from June 2022 to May 2023, covering different seasons throughout the year. The personal cascade impactor sampler (PCIS) operated at flow rate of 9 L/min was employed to collect weekly PM2.5 samples on PTFE and quarts filters. These collected samples were analyzed for carbonaceous species (i.e., elemental and organic carbon), metals and transition elements, inorganic ions, and DTT (dithiothreitol) redox activity. Furthermore, principal component analysis (PCA) and multi-linear regression (MLR) were used to identify the predominant emission sources and their percentage contribution to the redox activity of PM2.5 in Kuwait. The results of this study highlighted that the annual-averaged ambient PM2.5 mass concentrations in Kuwait (59.9 μg/m3) substantially exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline of 10 μg/m3. Additionally, the summer season displayed the highest PM2.5 mass concentration (75.2 μg/m3) compared to other seasons, primarily due to frequent dust events exacerbated by high-speed winds. The PCA identified four primary PM2.5 sources: mineral dust, fossil fuel combustion, road traffic, and secondary aerosols. The mineral dust was found to be the predominant source, contributing 36.1% to the PM2.5 mass, followed by fossil fuel combustion and traffic emissions with contributions of 23.7% and 20.3%, respectively. The findings of MLR revealed that road traffic was the most significant contributor to PM2.5 oxidative potential, accounting for 47% of the total DTT activity. In conclusion, this comprehensive investigation provides essential insights into the sources and health implications of PM2.5 in Kuwait, underscoring the critical need for effective air quality management strategies to mitigate the impacts of particulate pollution in the region.

Connections Between Air Pollution, Climate Change, and Cardiovascular Health

Globally, more people die from cardiovascular disease than any other cause. Climate change, through amplified environmental exposures, will promote and contribute to many noncommunicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease. Air pollution, too, is responsible for millions of deaths from cardiovascular disease each year. Although they may appear to be independent, interchangeable relationships and bidirectional cause-and-effect arrows between climate change and air pollution can eventually lead to poor cardiovascular health. In this topical review, we show that climate change and air pollution worsen each other, leading to several ecosystem-mediated effects. We highlight how increases in hot climates as a result of climate change have increased the risk of major air pollution events such as severe wildfires and dust storms. In addition, we show how altered atmospheric chemistry and changing patterns of weather conditions can promote the formation and accumulation of air pollutants: a phenomenon known as the climate penalty. We demonstrate these amplified environmental exposures and their associations to adverse cardiovascular health outcomes. The community of health professionals-and cardiologists, in particular-cannot afford to overlook the risks that climate change and air pollution bring to the public's health.

Burden of fine air pollution on mortality in the desert climate of Kuwait

BACKGROUND

Middle Eastern desert countries like Kuwait are known for intense dust storms and enormous petrochemical industries affecting ambient air pollution. However, local health authorities have not been able to assess the health impacts of air pollution due to limited monitoring networks and a lack of historical exposure data.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the burden of PM_2.5 on mortality in the understudied dusty environment of Kuwait.

METHODS

We analyzed the acute impact of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) on daily mortality in Kuwait between 2001 and 2016. To do so, we used spatiotemporally resolved estimates of PM_2.5 in the region. Our analysis explored factors such as cause of death, sex, age, and nationality. We fitted quasi-Poisson time-series regression for lagged PM_2.5 adjusted for time trend, seasonality, day of the week, temperature, and relative humidity.

RESULTS

There was a total of 70,321 deaths during the study period of 16 years. The average urban PM_2.5 was estimated to be 46.2 ± 19.8 µg/m³. A 10 µg/m³ increase in a 3-day moving average of urban PM_2.5 was associated with 1.19% (95% CI: 0.59, 1.80%) increase in all-cause mortality. For a 10 µg/m³ reduction in annual PM_2.5 concentrations, a total of 52.3 (95% CI: 25.7, 79.1) deaths each year could be averted in Kuwait. That is, 28.6 (95% CI: 10.3, 47.0) Kuwaitis, 23.9 (95% CI: 6.4, 41.5) non-Kuwaitis, 9.4 (95% CI: 1.2, 17.8) children, and 20.9 (95% CI: 4.3, 37.6) elderly deaths each year.

IMPACT STATEMENT

The overwhelming prevalence of devastating dust storms and enormous petrochemical industries in the Gulf and the Middle East has intensified the urgency to address air pollution and its detrimental health effects. Alarmingly, the region's epidemiological research lags behind, hindered by a paucity of ground monitoring networks and historical exposure data. In response, we are harnessing the power of big data to generate predictive models of air pollution across time and space, providing crucial insights into the mortality burden associated with air pollution in this under-researched yet critically impacted area.

Assessing the impact of sand and dust storm on agriculture: Empirical evidence from Mongolia

Assessing the economic impact of sand and dust storms provides critical insights to policy development and reforms; a subject that is gaining more attention as risk management becomes the dominant approach for hazard mitigation policies. To assess the causal impact of sand and dust storms on agriculture, specifically on crop and livestock revenue and physical production, random year-to-year variations in dust exposure were analyzed using a fixed effect regression. To complete this analysis, weather and climate data from the on-ground meteorological stations was combined with the household level socioeconomic surveys conducted by Mongolia's National Statistics Office (NSO) over a decade. The descriptive statistics of the meteorological data collected over the eight years period show that, on average, 29 dust events have occurred every year across the country, with greater variation among provinces (Aimags) and regions, reaching up to 108 events in a year in some provinces. The overall trend reveals a slight decrease in the dust events from 2009 to 2019. The econometric results show that value of crop and livestock production (gross income) and physical yields significantly decline in response to higher frequencies of sand and dust storms events. During this period, Mongolia experienced a 2.7% decline in crop revenue as a result of additional sand and dust storms. Assuming 2.7% constant decline in revenues across all agricultural sub-sectors and regions or Aimags, this could lead to about $37.8 million in losses to the economy, which is equivalent to about 0.27% of the national GDP of Mongolia. Increases in the frequency of sand and dust storms could reduce agricultural productivity by between 1.5% to 24%, depending on the crop. Estimates from the modelling exercise are robust to potential endogeneity bias in the measure of sand and dust storms; different specification and identification approaches accounting for the endogeneity bias consistently reveal negative and qualitatively similar impacts of sand and dust storms on crop and livestock productivity.

Estimation of fine particulate matter in an arid area from visibility based on machine learning

BACKGROUND

The absence of air pollution monitoring networks makes it difficult to assess historical fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) exposures for countries in the areas, such as Kuwait, which are severe impacted by desert dust and anthropogenic pollution.

OBJECTIVE

We constructed an ensemble machine learning model to predict daily PM_2.5 concentrations for regions lack of PM_2.5 observations.

METHODS

The model was constructed based on daily PM_2.5, visibility, and other meteorological data collected at two sites in Kuwait. Then, our model was applied to predict the daily level of PM_2.5 concentrations for eight airports located in Kuwait and Iraq from 2013 to 2020.

RESULTS

As compared to traditional statistic models, the proposed machine learning methods improved the accuracy in using visibility to predict daily PM_2.5 concentrations with a cross-validation R² of 0.68. The predicted level of daily PM_2.5 concentrations were consistent with previous measurements. The predicted average yearly PM_2.5 concentration for the eight stations is 50.65 µg/m³. For all stations, the monthly average PM_2.5 concentrations reached their maximum in July and their minimum in November.

SIGNIFICANCE

These findings make it possible to retrospectively estimate daily PM_2.5 exposures using the large-scale databases of historical visibility in regions with few particulate matter monitoring stations.

IMPACT STATEMENT

The scarcity of air pollution ground monitoring networks makes it difficult to assess historical fine particulate matter exposures for countries in arid areas such as Kuwait. Visibility is closely related to atmospheric particulate matter concentrations and historical airport visibility records are commonly available in most countries. Our model make it possible to retrospectively estimate daily PM_2.5 exposures using the large-scale databases of historical visibility in arid regions with few particulate matter ground monitoring stations. The product of such models can be critical for environmental risk assessments and population health studies.

Spatial distribution, pollution level, and health risk of Pb in the finer dust of residential areas: a case study of Xi'an, northwest China

The spatial distribution, pollution level, and exposure risk of Pb in the finer dust (particle size < 63 μm) of residential areas in Xi'an, northwest China were investigated in this study. Geographical information systems and geodetector methods were used to analyze the spatial variability of Pb content in the finer dust of Xi'an and its forming mechanism. The enrichment factor was used to assess the extent of Pb pollution, and the hazard index was used to evaluate the health risks to children and adults exposed to Pb. The results showed that the average content of Pb in the finer dust of residential areas in Xi'an was 99.9 mg kg^-1. In the Xi'an urban area, a higher Pb content was mainly found in the finer dust near the Second Ring Road of Xi'an City, and the Pb content in the old town of Xi'an City was relatively lower than that near the Second Ring Road. The results of geodetector analysis indicate that the spatial variability of Pb in the finer dust of the Xi'an urban area was primarily controlled by the interaction among vehicle emissions, daily behavior of residents, and industrial emissions. Pb in the finer dust from residential areas in all districts showed moderate enrichment. The non-cancer risks of Pb in the finer dust were within the safe range for both children and adults. However, the prolonged exposure risk of Pb in the finer dust of residential areas should be considered for children.

Time Series of Remote Sensing Data for Interaction Analysis of the Vegetation Coverage and Dust Activity in the Middle East

Motivated by the lack of research on land cover and dust activity in the Middle East, this study seeks to increase the understanding of the sensitivity of dust centers to climatic and surface conditions in this specific region. In this regard, we explore vegetation cover and dust emission interactions using 16-day long-term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and daily Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and conduct spatiotemporal and statistical analyses. Eight major dust hotspots were identified based on long-term AOD data (2000–2019). Despite the relatively uniform climate conditions prevailing throughout the region during the study period, there is considerable spatial variability in interannual relationships between AOD and NDVI. Three subsets of periods (2000–2006, 2007–2013, 2014–2019) were examined to assess periodic spatiotemporal changes. In the second period (2007–2013), AOD increased significantly (6% to 32%) across the studied hotspots, simultaneously with a decrease in NDVI (−0.9% to −14.3%) except in Yemen−Oman. Interannual changes over 20 years showed a strong relationship between reduced vegetation cover and increased dust intensity. The correlation between NDVI and AOD (−0.63) for the cumulative region confirms the significant effect of vegetation canopy on annual dust fluctuations. According to the results, changes in vegetation cover have an essential role in dust storm fluctuations. Therefore, this factor must be regarded along with wind speed and other climate factors in Middle East dust hotspots related to research and management efforts.

Predicting the dust events frequency around a degraded ecosystem and determining the contribution of their controlling factors using gradient boosting-based approaches and game theory

This study was aimed to evaluate the performance of gradient boosting machine (GBM) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) models with linear, tree, and DART boosters to predict monthly dust events frequency (MDEF) around a degraded wetland in southwestern Iran. The monthly required data for a long-term period from 1988 to 2018 were obtained through ground stations and satellite imageries. The best predictors were selected among the eighteen climatic, terrestrial, and hydrological variables based on the multicollinearity (MC) test and the Boruta algorithm. The models' performance was evaluated using the Taylor diagram. Game theory (i.e., SHAP values: SHV) was used to determine the contribution of factors controlling MDEF in different seasons. Mean wind speed, maximum wind speed, rainfall, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), soil moisture, erosive winds frequency, vapor pressure, vegetation area, water body area, and dried bed area of the wetland were confirmed as the best variables for predicting the MDEF around the studied wetland. The XGB-linear and XGB-tree showed a higher capability in predicting the MDEF variations in the summer and spring seasons. However, the XGB-Dart yielded better than XGB-linear and XGB-tree models in predicting the MDEF during the autumn and winter seasons. Rainfall (SHV = 1.6), surface water discharge (SHV = 2.4), mean wind speed (SHV = 10.1), and erosive winds frequency (SHV = 1.6) had the highest contribution in predicting the target variable in winter, spring, summer, and autumn, respectively. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the gradient boosting-based approaches and game theory in determining the factors affecting MDEF around a destroyed international wetland in southwestern Iran and the findings may be used to diminish their impacts on residents of this region of Iran.

Dynamic Variability of Wind Erosion Climatic Erosivity and Their Relationships with Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation in Xinjiang, China

Xinjiang has a serious wind erosion problem due to its fragile ecological condition and sensitivity to climate change. Wind erosion climatic erosivity is a measure of climatic factors influencing wind erosion; evaluating its spatiotemporal variations and relationship with the large-scale circulation pattern can contribute to the understanding of the climate change effect on wind erosion risk. Thus, this study quantified the wind erosion climatic erosivity and examined the connections between climatic erosivity and climate indices using trend analysis, geo-statistical analysis, and cross-wavelet analysis based on the observed daily meteorological data from 64 weather stations in Xinjiang, China during 1969–2019 (50 years). The results indicated that the climatic erosivity showed a significant downward trend at seasonal and annual scales over the past 50 years. Strong seasonality in the C-factor was found, with its highest values in the spring and summer and its lowest values in the winter. The average climatic erosivity was weaker during El Niño events than during La Niña events. The impact of El Niño events on climatic erosivity in Xinjiang continued from the beginning of the event to two months after the end of the events. The La Niña events had a lag effect on the climatic erosivity in Xinjiang, with a lag period of 4 months. From a statistical perspective, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices showed relationships to the climatic erosivity in Xinjiang in terms of their correlation and periodicity. The relationships between the climatic erosivity and ENSO were not clearly positive or negative, with many correlations advanced or delayed in phase. The NAO and AO indices showed a consistent in-phase relationship with climatic erosivity on significant bands, whereas the profound mechanisms involved in this require further study. The results of this study provide a preliminary perspective on the effect of large-scale atmospheric circulation on wind erosion risk in arid and semi-arid regions.

PM2.5 and PM10 during COVID-19 lockdown in Kuwait: Mixed effect of dust and meteorological covariates

This study investigated the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on particulate matter concentrations, specifically PM2.5 and PM10, in Kuwait. We studied the variations in PM2.5 and PM10 between the lockdown in 2020 with the corresponding periods of the years 2017-2019, and also investigated the differences in PM variations between the 'curfew' and 'non curfew' hours. We applied mixed-effect regression to investigate the factors that dictate PM variability (i.e., dust and meteorological covariates), and also processed satellite-based aerosol optical depths (AOD) to determine the spatial variability in aerosol loads. The results showed low PM2.5 concentration during the lockdown (33 μg/m3) compared to the corresponding previous three years (2017-2019); however, the PM10 concentration (122.5 μg/m3) increased relative to 2017 (116.6 μg/m3), and 2019 (92.8 μg/m3). After removing the 'dust effects', both PM2.5 and PM10 levels dropped by 18% and 31%, respectively. The mixed-effect regression model showed that high temperature and high wind speed were the main contributors to high PM2.5 and PM10, respectively, in addition to the dust haze and blowing dust. This study highlights that the reductions of anthropogenic source emissions are overwhelmed by dust events and adverse meteorology in arid regions, and that the lockdown did not reduce the high concentrations of PM in Kuwait.

A two-year assessment of particulate air pollution and sources in Kuwait

BACKGROUND

Kuwait and the Gulf region have a desert, hyper-arid and hot climate that makes outdoor air sampling challenging. The region is also affected by intense dust storms. Monitoring challenges from the harsh climate have limited data needed to inform appropriate regulatory actions to address air pollution in the region.

OBJECTIVES

To compare gravimetric measurements with existing networks that rely on beta-attenuation measurements in a desert climate; determine the annual levels of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ over a two-year period in Kuwait; assess compliance with air quality standards; and identify and quantify PM_2.5 sources.

METHODS

We custom-designed particle samplers that can withstand large quantities of dust without their inlet becoming overloaded. The samplers were placed in two populated residential locations, one in Kuwait City and another near industrial and petrochemical facilities in Ali Sabah Al-Salem (ASAS) to collect PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ samples for mass and elemental analysis. We used positive matrix factorization to identify PM_2.5 sources and apportion their contributions.

RESULTS

We collected 2339 samples during the period October 2017 through October 2019. The beta-attenuation method in measuring PM_2.5 consistently exceeded gravimetric measurements, especially during dust events. The annual levels for PM_2.5 in Kuwait City and ASAS were 41.6 ± 29.0 and 47.5 ± 27.6 μg/m³, respectively. Annual PM_2.5 levels in Kuwait were nearly four times higher than the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard. Regional pollution was a major contributor to PM_2.5 levels in both locations accounting for 44% in Kuwait City and 46% in ASAS. Dust storms and re-suspended road dust were the second and third largest contributors to PM_2.5, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The premise that frequent and extreme dust storms make air quality regulation futile is dubious. In this comprehensive particulate pollution analysis, we show that the sizeable regional anthropogenic particulate sources warrant national and regional mitigation strategies to ensure compliance with air quality standards.

Using multivariate adaptive regression splines and extremely randomized trees algorithms to predict dust events frequency around an international wetland and prioritize its drivers

This study aimed to evaluate the performance of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and extremely randomized trees (ERT) models for predicting the internal and external dust events frequencies (DEF) across the northeastern and southwestern regions of the Gavkhouni International Wetland. These models were also evaluated to model the internal DEF (IDEF) across the northwestern, southeastern, northern, and western regions around the wetland. Furthermore, the main factors controlling DEF and IDEF were identified based on the importance value (IV) of predictors in the best model. The results showed that the ERT model increased the prediction accuracies by an average of 40%, compared to the MARS model. According to the IV obtained from the ERT model, aerosol optical depth (IV = 0.28), wetland discharge (IV = 0.25), near-surface wind speed (IV = 0.08), and erosive winds frequency (IV = 0.07) were identified as the most important factors controlling DEF across the northeastern and southwestern regions of the wetland. However, the erosive wind speed was detected as the major factor affecting the IDEF in the northern (IV = 0.16), western (IV = 0.18), and southeastern (IV = 0.65) regions of study wetland. It was also found that vapor pressure with IV of 0.32 had the greatest effect on IDEF variations across the northwestern region of the wetland. Overall, the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ERT model in modeling the factors affecting DEF and IDEF, and the results may be used to mitigate dust events hazards around the Gavkhouni Wetland, in central Iran.

Estimation of ambient PM2.5 in Iraq and Kuwait from 2001 to 2018 using machine learning and remote sensing

Iraq and Kuwait are in a region of the world known to be impacted by high levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) attributable to sources that include desert dust and ambient pollution, but historically have had limited pollution monitoring networks. The inability to assess PM2.5 concentrations have limited the assessment of the health impact of these exposures, both in the native populations and previously deployed military personnel. As part of a Department of Veterans Affairs Cooperative Studies Program health study of land-based U.S. military personnel who were previously deployed to these countries, we developed a novel approach to estimate spatially and temporarily resolved daily PM2.5 exposures 2001-2018. Since visibility is proportional to ground-level particulate matter concentrations, we were able to take advantage of extensive airport visibility data that became available as a result of regional military operations over this time period. First, we combined a random forest machine learning and a generalized additive mixed model to estimate daily high resolution (1 km × 1 km) visibility over the region using satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) and airport visibility data. The spatially and temporarily resolved visibility data were then used to estimate PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 to 2018 by converting visibility to PM2.5 using empirical relationships derived from available regional PM2.5 monitoring stations. We adjusted for spatially resolved meteorological parameters, land use variables, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, and satellite-derived estimates of surface dust as a measure of sandstorm activity. Cross validation indicated good model predictive ability (R2 = 0.71), and there were considerable spatial and temporal differences in PM2.5 across the region. Annual average PM2.5 predictions for Iraq and Kuwait were 37 and 41 μg/m3, respectively, which are greater than current U.S. and WHO standards. PM2.5 concentrations in many U.S. bases and large cities (e.g. Bagdad, Balad, Kuwait city, Karbala, Najaf, and Diwaniya) had annual average PM2.5 concentrations above 45 μg/m3 with weekly averages as high as 150 μg/m3 depending on calendar year. The highest annual PM2.5 concentration for both Kuwait and Iraq were observed in 2008, followed by 2009, which was associated with extreme drought in these years. The lowest PM2.5 values were observed in 2014. On average, July had the highest concentrations, and November had the lowest values, consistent with seasonal patterns of air pollution in this region. This is the first study that estimates long-term PM2.5 exposures in Iraq and Kuwait at a high resolution based on measurements data that will allow the study of health effects and contribute to the development of regional environmental policies. The novel approach demonstrated may be used in other parts of the world with limited monitoring networks.

Accuracy, uncertainty, and interpretability assessments of ANFIS models to predict dust concentration in semi-arid regions

Accurate prediction of the dust concentration (DC) is necessary to reduce its undesirable environmental effects in different geographical areas. Although the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is a powerful model for predicting dust events, no attempt has been made to investigate its uncertainty and interpretability. In this study, therefore, the uncertainty of the ANFIS model was quantified using uncertainty estimation based on local errors and clustering methods. Furthermore, we used a model-agnostic interpretation to make the ANFIS model interpretable. In addition, we used the bat optimization algorithm (BAT) to increase the prediction accuracy of the ANFIS model. Seven explanatory variables were chosen for predicting DC in the cold and warm months across semi-arid regions of Iran. The results showed that the ANFIS+BAT model increased the correlation coefficient by 10% and 16% for predicting DC in the cold and warm months, respectively, compared with the ANFIS model. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis indicated a lower prediction interval (i.e., lower uncertainty) for the ANFIS+BAT model compared with the ANFIS model for predicting DC in the cold and warm months. In addition, the model-agnostic interpretation tool findings indicated the highest contributions of air temperature and maximum wind speed for predicting DC in the cold and warm months, respectively. Prediction of DC using the proposed model will allow decision-makers to better plan for measures to mitigate the risks of wind erosion and air pollution.

Dust Events and Indoor Air Quality in Residential Homes in Kuwait

Kuwait is a developed Middle Eastern country that is impacted by frequent dust storms from regional and/or remote deserts. The effectiveness of keeping homes tightly closed during these events to reduce dust exposures was assessed using indoor and outdoor particle samples at 10 residences within the metropolitan Kuwait City area. Specifically, this study compared indoor and outdoor levels of black carbon and 19 trace elements (Na, Mg, Al, Si, S, Cl, K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, Br, Sr, and Zr) during dust and non-dust events and found that particle penetration efficiencies were lower during dust storm events (less than 20–30%) than during non-dust storm events (40–60%). Coarse particles had lower penetration efficiency compared to fine particles, which is due to differences in infiltration rates and settling velocities between these two size fractions. Our findings suggest that increasing home insulation could be an effective strategy to reduce indoor exposure to crustal particles from dust storm events in residential houses of Kuwait City.