Scenario-based flood risk assessment for urbanizing deltas using future land-use simulation (FLUS): Guangzhou Metropolitan Area as a case study

Ecosystem services scenario simulation in Guangzhou based on the FLUS-InVEST model

The sustainable development of the region cannot be separated from the support of ecosystem services. By investigating the effects of potential land use and land cover change (LUCC) on these services in different scenarios, we can work towards protecting the ecological environment of urban areas, thus promoting the sustainable development of the region. This paper simulates the natural, ecological and development scenarios of Guangzhou in 2035 using the FLUS model based on LUCC of Guangzhou from 2015 to 2020; on top of the three scenarios, calculates the physical quantities of three ecosystem services-annual water yield, habitat quality, and carbon storage, through the InVEST model; and uses the GeoDetector model to identify the influencing Drivers. (1) Compared to 2020, the different land use types will change differently under the three scenarios in 2035; (2) The spatial distribution of ecosystem services in Guangzhou for the years 2020 and 2035 show similar patterns across three scenarios; (3) Based on the analysis of the driving factors behind Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) in Guangzhou, it has been observed that population density has the most significant impact on LUCC.

Adaptive Management Based on the Habitat Change of Cibotium barometz Under Synergistic Impact of Climate and Land Use Change-A Case Study of Guangxi, China

With the rapidly growing demand for medicinal plants globally, the wild medicinal plant population is experiencing a sharp decline. Climate and land use change are two significant forces affecting biodiversity. Climate change impact assessment without changes in land use should mischaracterize medicinal plants' vulnerability and spatiotemporal distribution. Previous research on medicinal plants' potential distribution area by species distribution model (SDM) has focused more on their ecological suitability. However, whether the land-use types within the suitable distribution area (SDA) meet the species' survival requirements is often overlooked. These imbalances place significant limitations upon the ability to guide anticipative conservation and sustainable utilization actions and weigh the future outcomes of different policy or management options. Cibotium barometz is a highly demanded medicinal plant listed as national key protected wild plant in China. For adaptive management, we assessed the suitable habitat change of C. barometz in Guangxi under the synergistic impact of climate and land use change by maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) models between 2020 and 2040 under three Shared socio-economic pathways and proposed adaptive management countermeasure. Results indicate that climate change accelerates the loss of C. barometz's habitat;SDA and suitable habitat show a decreasing trend; the total area of suitable habitat is decreasing, but the suitability degree is increasing. Altitude and Precipitation of Warmest Quarter are key environmental variables for C. barometz distribution; SDA shows a southwest-northeast shift, and the average elevation is rising. The areas of cropland, forest, shrub, grassland, and barren that meet C. barometz's survival requirements are decreasing, and water and impervious surfaces are increasing. We propose an adaptive response to wild resource conservation based on the protected area system in southwestern Guangxi in parallel with artificial cultivation in northeastern Guangxi. The study aims to provide insights into the sustainable utilization of medicinal plants.

Space-time evolution of urban flood resilience and its scenario simulation research: A case study of Zhejiang Province, China

Recent years have seen a surge in global flood disasters, underlining the imperative for urban areas to enhance flood resilience. To quantitatively evaluate the capacity of urban areas to manage flood disasters and model the evolving trend of urban flood resilience, a system was established for evaluating urban flood resilience. This system utilized both the global entropy method and sensitivity analysis for evaluation and simulation purposes. In light of the intricate and multifaceted factors influencing urban flood resilience, and by incorporating the Guide for Safety Resilient City Evaluation along with key indicators identified in Chinese and international research, we developed an evaluation indicator system for urban resilience in dealing with flood disasters. Moreover, the global entropy method was utilized to derive the urban flood resilience indices. The study developed four scenarios to analyze varying resilience trajectories. Focusing on Zhejiang Province, a region with frequent and representative flood occurrences, the indicator system, which is constructed by the aforementioned method, was applied to evaluate its urban flood resilience from 2007 to 2021. The resilience evolution under these scenarios was also explored. The results reveal an overarching positive trend in Zhejiang Province's resilience across natural, economy, and infrastructure dimensions, with consistently high social resilience. In the absence of external disruptions, all cities within Zhejiang Province are projected to continue enhancing their flood resilience, exceeding an annual growth rate of 1.5 %. Building on these insights, the study identified weaknesses of various cities within Zhejiang Province under each scenario, offering targeted recommendations for resilience enhancement.

Desertification sensitivity and its impacts on land use change in the Tarim Basin, Northwest China

Desertification poses a major challenge in the northwestern arid areas of China. Land use activities are increasingly endangered by desertification, including direct impact (e.g., farmland abandonment) and indirect impact (e.g., farmland area control). However, previous studies have primarily focused on the impact of land use on desertification processes, while there has been limited research on the direct and indirect impacts of desertification on land use. Based on the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) and Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) models, we identify the spatiotemporal distribution of desertification sensitivity and analyze the direct and indirect impacts of desertification on land use in the Tarim Basin from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that the desertification sensitivity areas were primarily concentrated in the critical areas (proportion > 50 %), followed by the fragile and potential areas. In terms of the direct impact, the areas of abandoned farmland due to desertification were 68.25 km2 and 1444.25 km2 during the periods of 2000-2010 and 2010-2020, respectively. Additionally, 3893.25 km2 of farmland was at risk of abandonment. After being abandoned, the farmland was primarily converted into grassland. In terms of the indirect impact, the differences between predicted (simulations without farmland area control) and observed farmland area, serving as an indicator of farmland area control to reduce desertification risks, were 1065.75 km2 in 2010 and 4614.00 km2 in 2020. Our paper provides new insights into the direct and indirect impacts of desertification on land use, providing references for formulating desertification control policies and regional land use planning.

Evaluation of farmland production potential in key agricultural production areas on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under multi-scenario simulation

Predicting changes in future land use and farmland production potential (FPP) within the context of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) is crucial for devising sustainable land use strategies that balance agricultural production and ecological conservation. Therefore, the Huangshui Basin (HSB) in the northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is taken as the study area, and a LUCC-Plus-FPP (LPF) coupling framework based on the SSP-RCP scenarios is proposed to evaluate future land use patterns and FPP changes. On the basis of the predictions of land use changes from 2020 to 2070, the trade-offs in grain production resulting from bivariate changes in farmland and FPP under future scenarios are analyzed. The results indicate that the model has a high simulation accuracy for land use types, with an overall accuracy of 0.98, a kappa coefficient of 0.97, and a figure of merit value of 0.21. Under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, built-up land increases significantly, by approximately 45.89 %. Farmland and grassland conversions contribute the most to increased built-up land. Farmland area consistently decreases by approximately 5 % across all scenarios. The protection of farmland in the study area is difficult to undertake and thus requires much attention. Moreover, under the SSP126 scenario, the FPP of most districts is greater than that in 2020, and the average FPP of the HSB from 2030 to 2070 is greater than that in 2020. In the SSP585 scenario, by 2070, the average FPP of all districts decreases to different degrees compared with that in 2020. Furthermore, the compensated farmland quantities and average FPPs under all the scenarios are significantly lower than the amount of occupied farmland. The results provide a theoretical foundation and data support for farmland protection decision-making and layout optimization in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Projecting urban flood risk through hydrodynamic modeling under shared socioeconomic pathways

Under future climate change, accurate risk assessment of urban flooding disasters is paramount for effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, conventional indicator-based assessment methods often fall short of accurately capturing the complexity of flooding dynamics. Current research predominantly focuses on predicting future hazard shifts while overlooking changes in other critical indicators. In this study, we establish a comprehensive index system for risk assessment, and quantified future changes in most indicators, utilizing the InfoWorks ICM model for hazard simulation and the CLUMondo model for land use predictions. Based on risk assessment results and regional characteristics, we further analyze the key factors driving future risk and discuss corresponding measures. The results indicate an exacerbation of future urban flood risk, with an 18% increase in high risk areas, primarily concentrated in the center of the study area. The dominant indicators are inundation depth and land use over the whole study area. However microtopography significantly affects risk in low-lying areas. Overall, under higher emission scenarios, the influence of GDP and population rises. These findings offer methodological insights for future urban flood risk assessment research and provide policymakers with valuable guidance to develop targeted adaptation measures in response to climate change.

Health Co-Benefits of Environmental Changes in the Context of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality in China

IMPORTANCE

Climate change mitigation policies aimed at limiting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would bring substantial health co-benefits by directly alleviating climate change or indirectly reducing air pollution. As one of the largest developing countries and GHG emitter globally, China's carbon-peaking and carbon neutrality goals would lead to substantial co-benefits on global environment and therefore on human health. This review summarized the key findings and gaps in studies on the impact of China's carbon mitigation strategies on human health.

HIGHLIGHTS

There is a wide consensus that limiting the temperature rise well below 2 °C would markedly reduce the climate-related health impacts compared with high emission scenario, although heat-related mortalities, labor productivity reduction rates, and infectious disease morbidities would continue increasing over time as temperature rises. Further, hundreds of thousands of air pollutant-related mortalities (mainly due to PM2.5 and O3) could be avoided per year compared with the reference scenario without climate policy. Carbon reduction policies can also alleviate morbidities due to acute exposure to PM2.5. Further research with respect to morbidities attributed to nonoptimal temperature and air pollution, and health impacts attributed to precipitation and extreme weather events under current carbon policy in China or its equivalent in other developing countries is needed to improve our understanding of the disease burden in the coming decades.

CONCLUSIONS

This review provides up-to-date evidence of potential health co-benefits under Chinese carbon policies and highlights the importance of considering these co-benefits into future climate policy development in both China and other nations endeavoring carbon reductions.

How has carbon storage changed in the Yili-Tianshan region over the past three decades and into the future? What has driven it to change?

Predicting future land use changes and assessing carbon storage remain challenging. Nowadays, how nature and socioeconomics drive changes in carbon storage is a hot topic in research. In this study, through the projection of land use type and the integration of the PLUS, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST), and Geodetector models, we constructed a framework for assessing carbon storage in different land use scenarios. Utilizing this framework, it is possible to project land use change and estimate carbon storage based on different development scenarios. We applied the framework to the Yili Tianshan region and identified the main driving forces for carbon storage change. Further, we estimated the carbon storage in the Yili Tianshan region in 2035 under four scenarios (RE, NE, EP, and CLP). The results showed the following: 1) Between 1990 and 2020, there was an increase in the forest area and water bodies in the Yili-Tianshan region, mainly from bare land. 2) As shown on the time scale, carbon storage increases in the Yili-Tianshan region with a W-shaped fluctuation by converting grasslands and bare land into forests. On a spatial scale, the carbon storage was lower in the center and higher on both sides in the Yili-Tianshan region. 3) In 2035- RE, 2035-ND, and 2035-EP scenarios, the carbon storage was increased by 4.30 Tg, 6.67 Tg, and 12.08 Tg; in the 2035-CLP scenario, it was decreased by 14.63 Tg. The Yili-Tianshan region experienced a notable rise in carbon storage under the 2035-EP scenario compared to the other three scenarios. 4) Soil type played a significant role in the spatial differentiation of carbon storage in Yili-Tianshan (q value 0.5958), followed by population density (0.5394). The changes in carbon storage in the Yili-Tianshan region are the result of synergistic effects of multiple factors, in which the soil type∩soil erosion intensity are the most important. This research could provide a reference method for improving regional carbon storage.

Climate and land use/land cover changes increasing habitat overlap among endangered crested ibis and sympatric egret/heron species

Climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes have far-reaching effects on various biological processes in wildlife, particularly interspecific interactions. Unfortunately, interspecific interactions are often overlooked when assessing the impacts of environmental changes on endangered species. In this study, we examined niche similarities and habitat overlaps between wild Crested Ibis and sympatric Egret and Heron species (EHs) in Shaanxi, China, using Ecological niche models (ENMs). We aimed to forecast potential alterations in habitat overlaps due to climate and LULC changes. The results showed that although EHs possess a broader niche breadth compared to the Crested Ibis, they still share certain niche similarities, as indicated by Schoener's D and Hellinger's I values exceeding 0.5, respectively. Notably, despite varying degrees of habitat reduction, the shared habitat area of all six species expands with the changes in climate and LULC. We suggest that with the climate and LULC changes, the habitats of sympatric EHs are likely to suffer varying degrees of destruction, forcing them to seek refuge and migrate to the remaining wild Ibis habitat. This is primarily due to the effective conservation efforts in the Crested Ibis habitat in Yangxian County and neighboring areas. Consequently, due to the niche similarity, they will share and compete for limited habitat resources, including food and space. Therefore, we recommend that conservation efforts extend beyond protecting the Crested Ibis habitat. It is crucial to control human activities that contribute to LULC changes to safeguard the habitats of both Crested Ibis and other sympatric birds.

The impact of land use on eco-environment in the Dianchi Basin

(1) Studying the dynamic correlation between land use and the eco-environment in the Dianchi Basin is important for improving the basin's spatial layout and enhancing ecological development and conservation; (2) Through dynamic analysis and comprehensive evaluation of land use, the introduction of ecological and environmental quality index, and the use of FLUS models, the impacts on eco-environments in the Dianchi Basin for the recent 20 years were analyzed; (3) The past two decades witnessed a constant increase in the construction land in the Dianchi Basin and a decline in the farmland at an average annual rate of 0.93 %; The utilization level of land in the Dianchi Basin presented a negative correlation with the quality of the area's eco-environment, which reduces first and then increases; When natural production becomes a priority, both the construction land and farmland have witnessed growth. However, when ecological protection becomes a priority, it is projected that by 2035, the Dianchi Basin will achieve its highest eco-environmental quality index; (4) Studying how the change of land use types affects eco-environment is crucial for optimizing the current allocation of land resources and promoting sustainable development in the basin.

Prediction of land use for the next 30 years using the PLUS model's multi-scenario simulation in Guizhou Province, China

Land use changes significantly impact the structure and functioning of ecosystems. The current research focus lies in how to utilize economic and policy instruments to regulate conflicts among stakeholders effectively. The objective is to facilitate rational planning and sustainable development of land utilization resources. The PLUS model integrates a rule-based mining method for land expansion analysis and a CA model based on multi-type stochastic seeding mechanism, which can be used to mine the driving factors of land expansion and predict the patch-level evolution of land use landscapes. Using the PLUS model, a simulation was conducted to study the future land use distribution in the research area over the next 30 years. Based on land use data from Guizhou Province in 2000, 2010, and 2020, a total of 16 driving factors were selected from three aspects: geographical environment, transportation network, and socio-economic conditions. Four scenarios, namely natural development, urban development, ecological conservation, and farmland rotection, were established. Comparative analysis of the simulated differences among the various scenarios was performed. (1) The overall accuracy of the land use simulation using the PLUS model in the study area was 0.983, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.972 and a FoM coefficient of 0.509. The research accuracy meets the simulation requirements. (2) Through the simulation of four different scenarios, the study investigated the land use changes in Guizhou Province over the next 30 years. Each scenario exhibited distinct impacts on land utilization. Comprehensive comparison of the different simulation results revealed that the farmland protection scenario aligns with the sustainable development goals of the research area. Currently, there is a relative scarcity of research on land use simulation, particularly in model application, for Guizhou Province. This study aims to provide a reference for the rational planning of land resources and high-quality urban construction in Guizhou, promoting the high-quality economic development in tandem with advanced ecological and environmental protection.

A novel framework for urban flood risk assessment: Multiple perspectives and causal analysis

Risk assessment and adaptation have become key focuses in the examination of urban flooding risk. In recent decades, global climate change has resulted in a high incidence of extreme weather events, notably flooding. This study introduces a spatial multi-indicator model developed for assessing flood risk at the urban agglomeration scale. A crucial addition to the model is the incorporation of an adaptive capacity within the IPCC risk framework. The model systematically considers various flood risk indicators related to the economic, social, and geographic environments of the central and southern Liaoning urban agglomeration (CSLN). It generates a spatial distribution map of integrated flood risk for multiple scenario combinations. Furthermore, the intricate relationship between different risk indicators and flood risk was analyzed using correlation analysis and the Light Gradient Boosting Machine model (Light GBM). The findings reveal notable variations in flood risk under different scenarios. The inclusion of vulnerability indicators increased flood risk by 33 %, while the subsequent inclusion of adaptive indicators decreased flood risk by 45 %. Dense populations and assets contribute to high flood risk, while adaptive capacity significantly mitigates urban flood risk. The framework adopted in this paper can be applied to other areas where urban agglomeration-scale flood risk assessment is needed, and can contribute to advancing scientific research on flood forecasting and mitigation.

A novel flood risk management approach based on future climate and land use change scenarios

Climate change and increasing urbanization are two primary factors responsible for the increased risk of serious flooding around the world. The prediction and monitoring of the effects of land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change on flood risk are critical steps in the development of appropriate strategies to reduce potential damage. This study aimed to develop a new approach by combining machine learning (namely the XGBoost, CatBoost, LightGBM, and ExtraTree models) and hydraulic modeling to predict the effects of climate change and LULC change on land that is at risk of flooding. For the years 2005, 2020, 2035, and 2050, machine learning was used to model and predict flood susceptibility under different scenarios of LULC, while hydraulic modeling was used to model and predict flood depth and flood velocity, based on the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. The two elements were used to build a flood risk assessment, integrating socioeconomic data such as LULC, population density, poverty rate, number of women, number of schools, and cultivated area. Flood risk was then computed, using the analytical hierarchy process, by combining flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The results showed that the area at high and very high flood risk increased rapidly, as did the areas of high/very high exposure, and high/very high vulnerability. They also showed how flood risk had increased rapidly from 2005 to 2020 and would continue to do so in 2035 and 2050, due to the dynamics of climate change and LULC change, population growth, the number of women, and the number of schools - particularly in the flood zone. The results highlight the relationships between flood risk and environmental and socio-economic changes and suggest that flood risk management strategies should also be integrated in future analyses. The map built in this study shows past and future flood risk, providing insights into the spatial distribution of urban area in flood zones and can be used to facilitate the development of priority measures, flood mitigation being most important.

Ecosystem service valuation and multi-scenario simulation in the Ebinur Lake Basin using a coupled GMOP-PLUS model

The Ebinur Lake Basin is an ecologically sensitive area in an arid region. Investigating its land use and land cover (LULC) change and assessing and predicting its ecosystem service value (ESV) are of great importance for the stability of the basin's socioeconomic development and sustainable development of its ecological environment. Based on LULC data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, we assessed the ESV of the Ebinur Lake Basin and coupled the grey multi-objective optimization model with the patch generation land use simulation model to predict ESV changes in 2035 under four scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU) development, rapid economic development (RED), ecological protection (ELP), and ecological-economic balance (EEB). The results show that from 1990 to 2020, the basin was dominated by grassland (51.23%) and unused land (27.6%), with a continuous decrease in unused land and an increase in cultivated land. In thirty years, the total ESV of the study area increased from 18.62 billion to 67.28 billion yuan, with regulation and support services being the dominant functions. By 2035, cultivated land increased while unused land decreased in all four scenarios compared with that in 2020. The total ESV in 2035 under the BAU, RED, ELP, and EEB scenarios was 68.83 billion, 64.47 billion, 67.99 billion, and 66.79 billion yuan, respectively. In the RED and EEB scenarios, ESV decreased by 2.81 billion and 0.49 billion yuan, respectively. In the BAU scenario, provisioning and regulation services increased by 6.05% and 2.93%, respectively. The ELP scenario, focusing on ecological and environmental protection, saw an increase in ESV for all services. This paper can assist policymakers in optimizing land use allocation and provide scientific support for the formulation of land use strategies and sustainable ecological and environmental development in the inland river basins of arid regions.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of wetlands and their future multi-scenario simulation in the Yellow River Delta, China

Wetlands, known as the "kidney of the earth", are an important component of global ecosystems. However, they have been changed under multiple stresses in recent decades, which is especially true in the Yellow River Delta. This study examined the spatiotemporal change characteristics of wetlands in the Yellow River Delta from 1980 to 2020 and predicted detailed wetland changes from 2020 to 2030 with the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model under four scenarios, namely, the natural development scenario (NDS), the farmland protection scenario (FPS), the wetland protection scenario (WPS) and the harmonious development scenario (HDS). The results showed that wetlands increased 709.29 km2 from 1980 to 2020 overall, and the wetland types in the Yellow River Delta changed divergently. Over the past four decades, the tidal flats have decreased, whereas the reservoirs and ponds have increased. The gravity center movement of wetlands differed among the wetland types, with artificial wetlands moving to the northwest and natural wetlands moving to the south. The movement distance of the gravity center demonstrated apparent phase characteristics, and an abrupt change occurred from 2005 to 2010. The PLUS model was satisfactory, with an overall accuracy (OA) value greater than 83.48 % and an figure of merit (FOM) value greater than 0.1164. From 2020 to 2030, paddy fields and tidal flats decreased, whereas natural water, marshes and reservoirs and ponds increased under the four scenarios. The WPS was a relatively ideal scenario for wetlands, and the HDS was an alternative scenario for wetland restoration and food production. In the future, more attention should be paid to restoring natural wetlands to prevent further degradation in the Yellow River Delta. This study provides insights into new understandings of historical and future changes in wetlands and may have implications for wetland ecosystem protection and sustainable development.

Integrated assessment and prediction of ecological security in typical ecologically fragile areas

In order to safeguard and restore ecological security in ecologically fragile regions, a regionally appropriate land use structure and ecological security pattern should be constructed. Previous ecological security research models for ecologically fragile areas are relatively homogenous, and it is necessary to establish a multi-modeling framework to consider integrated ecological issues. This study proposes a coupled "PLUS-ESI-Circuit Theory" framework for multi-scenario ecological security assessment of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR). Firstly, the PLUS model was used to complete the simulation of four future development scenarios. Secondly, a new ecological security index (ESI) is constructed by synthesizing ecological service function, ecological health, and ecological risk. Finally, the Circuit Theory is applied to construct the ecological security pattern under multiple scenarios, and the optimization strategy of ecological security zoning is proposed. The results show that (1) from 2000 to 2030, the NHAR has about 80% of grassland and farmland. The built-up area is consistently growing. (2) Between 2000 and 2030, high ecological security areas are primarily located in Helan Mountain, Liupan Mountain, and the central part of NHAR, while the low ecological security areas are dominated by Shapotou District and Yinchuan City. (3) After 2010, the aggregation of high-security areas decreases, and the fragmentation of patches is obvious. Landscape fragmentation would increase under the economic development (ED) scenario and would be somewhat ameliorated by the ecological protection (EP) and balanced development (BD) scenarios. (4) The number of sources increases but the area decreases from 2000 to 2020. The quantity of ecological elements is on the rise. Ecological restoration and protection of this part of the country will improve its ecological security.

Flood economic vulnerability and risk assessment at the urban mesoscale based on land use: A case study in Changsha, China

With climate change and urbanization, flood disasters have significantly affected urban development worldwide. In this study, we developed a paradigm to assess flood economic vulnerability and risk at the urban mesoscale, focusing on urban land use. A hydrological simulation was used to evaluate flood hazards through inundation analyses, and a hazard-vulnerability matrix was applied to assess flood risk, enhancing the economic vulnerability assessment by quantifying the differing economic value and flood losses associated with different land types. The case study of Wangchengpo, Changsha, China, found average total economic losses of 126.94 USD/m2, with the highest risk in the settlement core. Residential areas had the highest flood hazard, vulnerability, and losses (61.10% of the total loss); transportation areas accounted for 27.87% of the total economic losses due to their high flooding depth. Despite low inundation, industrial land showed greater economic vulnerability due to higher overall economic value (10.52% of the total). Our findings highlight the influence of land types and industry differences on flood vulnerability and the effectiveness of land-use inclusion in urban-mesoscale analyses of spatial flood characteristics. We identify critical areas with hazard and economic vulnerability for urban land and disaster prevention management and planning, helping to offer targeted flood control strategies to enhance urban resilience.

Land use and habitat quality change in the Yellow River Basin: A perspective with different CMIP6-based scenarios and multiple scales

Studying the spatial distribution of land use/land cover (LULC) and habitat quality (HQ), influenced by both climate change and socio-economic factors, holds immense importance for fostering ecological sustainability. The previous scale setting was based on changes in granularity and division of spatial ranges, without considering the differences in land quantity structure and spatial expansion under different spatial ranges. Therefore, this study is based on climate and economic data at different spatial scales to determine the various land demands of provinces (YRB-P) and integration of provinces (YRB-I) in the Yellow River Basin, and to limit the expansion of LULC in corresponding regions. At the same time, we have also established three future scenarios representing different development speeds based on the latest path of shared socio-economic development in CMIP6. We found exhibit significant characteristics in ecological responses under combinations of different scales and scenarios. Shandong and Henan Provinces are the main gathering (38.7-41.7%, 24.1-26.5%) and expansion (68.54-85.99 × 102km2, 18.89-34.12 × 102km2) provinces of built-up land under the YRB-P scale, and their HQ (0.260-0.397) are significantly lower than the average HQ (0.619-0.654). Forest land, grassland, and high value regions of HQ show "45°" distribution at two scales, with high and low values clearly clustered (Moran's I is 0.5440-0.580). The HQ evolution region is larger and more dispersed at the YRB-P scale, but accumulates in local areas at the YRB-I scale. In addition, the highest and lowest HQ mean values appear under the low speed development scenario at the YRB-P scale (0.721) and the rapid development scenario at the YRB-I scale (0.689), respectively. This study helps decision-makers control different scales and development scenarios to improve the ecological level of the study area.

Identifying the impacts of land use landscape pattern and climate changes on streamflow from past to future

Identifying the individual and combined hydrological response of land use landscape pattern and climate changes is key to effectively managing the ecohydrological balance of regions. However, their nonlinearity, effect size, and multiple causalities limit causal investigations. Therefore, this study aimed to establish a comprehensive methodological framework to quantify changes in the landscape pattern and climate, evaluate trends in streamflow response, and analyze the attribution of streamflow events in five basins in Beijing from the past to the future. Future climate projections were based on three general circulation models (GCMs) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Additionally, the landscape pattern in 2035 under a natural development scenario was simulated by the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to evaluate the streamflow spatial and temporal dynamics over the period 2005-2035 with multiple scenarios. A bootstrapping nonlinear regression analysis and boosted regression tree (BRT) model were used to analyze the individual and combined attribution of landscape pattern and climate changes on streamflow, respectively. The results indicated that in the future, the overall streamflow in the Beijing basin would decrease, with a slightly reduced peak streamflow in most basins in the summer and a significant increase in the autumn and winter. The nonlinear quadratic regression more effectively explained the impact of landscape pattern and climate changes on streamflow. The trends in the streamflow change depended on where the relationship curve was in relation to the threshold. In addition, the impacts of landscape pattern and climate changes on streamflow were not isolated but were joint. They presented a nonlinear, non-uniform, and coupled relationship. Except for the YongDing River Basin, the annual streamflow change was influenced more by the landscape pattern. The dominant factors and the critical pair interactions varied from basin to basin. Our findings have implications for city planners and managers for optimizing ecohydrological functions and promoting sustainable development.

How to simulate future scenarios of urban stormwater management? A novel framework coupling climate change, urbanization, and green stormwater infrastructure development

Climate change, urbanization, and green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) planning policies lead to uncertainties in future urban sustainability. Coupling multiple influencing factors such as climate change, urbanization, and GSI development, this study proposes a novel framework for simulating future scenarios of urban stormwater. Subsequently, the changes in annual surface runoff and runoff pollutants in Shanghai's new and old urban areas were compared and analyzed based on 35 typical future and seven baseline scenarios. The following results were obtained: 1) The runoff control rate of the new urban area was significantly higher than that of the old urban area before GSI construction. After GSI construction, both areas could control stormwater runoff and pollutants, while the decline in efficiency in GSI facilities enormously impacted the old area. 2) Surface runoff in the new urban area was mainly affected by urbanization, while climate change was a major factor in the old urban area; runoff pollutants in new and old urban areas were mainly affected by urbanization, and the change in pollutants in new areas was more pronounced. 3) GSI facilities were unlikely to guarantee the quantity and quality of water resources, especially in scenarios where the efficiency of GSI facilities decreases. In old urban areas, the more extreme climate change and urbanization were, the more significant the effect of improving stormwater management facilities. Our findings showed that future studies on stormwater management should specifically consider the different characteristics of new and old urban regions, pay attention to the maintenance and management of GSI facilities, and build adaptive strategies to cope with climate change, urbanization, and GSI facility destruction.

An integrated model chain for future flood risk prediction under land-use changes

Flood is a very destructive natural disaster in the world that is strongly influenced by land-use change. Therefore, a comprehensive flood risk modeling considering the change in land-use is essential for understanding, predicting, and mitigating flood risk. However, most existing single modeling ignored the derivative effect of land-use change, which may reduce the reality of results. To further address the issue, this study presented an integrated model chain by coupling the Markov-FLUS model, the multiple linear regression and the improved TOPSIS model. By applying it in Guangdong Province, the future land-use simulation, spatialization of hazard-bearing bodies, and determination of flood risk were realized. The results show that the coupled model chain allows for good prediction of flood risk under different scenarios, which could be expressed by flood risk composite index (FRSI). In the natural growth scenario, the flood risk will show markedly increasing trend from 2020 to 2030 (FRSI = 2.06), with the high and highest risk zones will expand significantly. Spatially, these increased high flood risk zones mainly distributed on the periphery of existing built-up lands. On the contrary, the flood risk in ecological protection scenario tends to stabilize (FRSI = 1.98), which may be a reference for alternative development paths. These dynamic information identified by this model chain provides a deeper insight into the spatiotemporal characteristics of future high flood risk areas, which can facilitate reasonable flood mitigation measures to be developed at the most critical locations in the region. In further applications, more efficient spatialization models and climate factor are suggested to be introduced.

Urban flood risk differentiation under land use scenario simulation

The frequent urban floods have seriously affected the regional sustainable development in recent years. It is significant to understand the characteristics of urban flood risk and reasonably predict urban flood risk under different land use scenarios. This study used the random forest and multi-criteria decision analysis models to assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of flood risk in Zhengzhou City, China, from 2005 to 2020, and proposed a robust method coupling Bayesian network and patch-generating land use simulation models to predict future flood risk probability. We found that the flood risk in Zhengzhou City presented an upward trend from 2005 to 2020, and its spatial pattern was "high in the middle and low in the surrounding areas". In addition, land use patterns under the sustainable development scenario would be more conducive to reducing flood risk. Our results can provide theoretical support for scientifically optimizing land use to improve urban flood risk management.

Remote sensing inversion and prediction of land use land cover in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin, China

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are dynamic and have been extensively studied; the change in LULC has become a crucial factor in decision making for planners and conservationists owing to its impact on natural ecosystems. Deriving accurate LULC data and analyzing their changes are important for assessing the energy balance, carbon balance, and hydrological cycle in a region. Therefore, we investigated the best classification method from the four methods and analyzed the change in LULC in the middle Yangtze River basin (MYRB) from 2001 to 2020 using the Google Earth Engine (GEE). The results suggest that (1) GEE platform enables to rapidly acquire and process remote sensing images for deriving LULC, and the random forest (RF) algorithm was able to calculate the highest overall accuracy and kappa coefficient (KC) of 87.7% and 0.84, respectively; (2) forestland occupied the largest area from 2001 to 2020, followed by water bodies and buildings. During the study period, there was a significant change in area occupied by both water bodies (overall increase of 46.2%) and buildings (decrease of 14.3% from 2001 to 2005); and (3) the simulation of LULC in the MYRB area was based on the primary drivers in the area, of which elevation changes had the largest effect on LULC changes. The patch generated land use simulation model (PLUS) was used to produce the simulation, with an overall accuracy and KC of 89.6% and 0.82, respectively. This study not only was useful for understanding the spatial and temporal characteristics of LULC in the MYRB, but also offered the basis for the simulation of ecological quality in this region.

Assessment of Urban Flood Vulnerability Using the Integrated Framework and Process Analysis: A Case from Nanjing, China

Flooding is a serious challenge that increasingly affects residents as well as policymakers. Many studies have noted that decreasing the urban flood vulnerability (UFV) is an indispensable strategy for reducing flood risks; however, some studies have several pertinent assessment limitations. The objective of this study is to assess the UFV of the Xuanwu-Qinhuai-Jianye-Gulou-Yuhua (XQJGY) region from 2012 to 2018 by integrating various indicators into a composite index. This study uses the environment for visualizing images (ENVI) and the geographic information system (GIS) to extract indicators that have geographic attributes for the assessment of UFV and the process analysis method is then used to explore the relationship between these indicators. The results indicated that: (1) The UFV of Xuanwu, Qinhuai, and Gulou decreased from 2012 to 2018 and the UFV of Jianye and Gulou increased from 2012 to 2015 and decreased from 2015 to 2018. (2) The vegetation coverage, precipitation during the flood season, population density, and highway density significantly contributed to the UFV. (3) There also exist transformation pathways between the indicators that led to vulnerability in five districts. This study provides a theoretical basis for the government to manage floods.

Evaluating the impacts of land use change on ecosystem service values under multiple scenarios in the Hunshandake region of China

Changes in land use in an agro-pastoral region affect the delivery of ecosystem services. The trajectory of future land use change and its impacts on human society are not yet well understood, which poses a challenge to efforts to balance the socioeconomic development with the supply of ecosystem services. Taking the Hunshandake region for a case study, we developed four land use scenarios, and projected the future land use patterns under those scenarios using the GeoSOS-FLUS model. We then assessed the ecosystem service values (ESV) using a modification of the equivalent-coefficient method that accounts for differences in net primary production, and explored the impacts of land use change on ESV from 2018 to 2030. We found important land use conversions among the forest, grassland, and cropland uses, mainly in the southern part of our study area. The presence of ESV change hotspots and cold spots suggested that the changes were clustered in the southeastern part. The ESV gain and loss matrix showed that the land use changes under a scenario that prioritized ecosystem services and the comprehensive development scenario increased ESV from 2018 to 2030 with the conversion of cropland to forest. Our results provide important knowledge to inform land use decisions and facilitate sustainable development in the Hunshandake region.

Projections of land use change and habitat quality assessment by coupling climate change and development patterns

Exploring future land use changes and assessing the habitat quality remains a challenging topic for watershed ecological sustainability. However, most studies ignore the effects of coupled climate change and development patterns. In this study, a framework for assessing habitat quality under the influence of future land use change is constructed based on exploring the driving forces of land use change factors and integrating the system dynamics (SD) model, future land use simulation (FLUS) model and InVest model. The framework enables the projection of land use change and the assessment of habitat quality in the context of future climate change and different development strategies. Applying the framework to the Weihe River Basin, the main driving forces of land-use change in the Weihe River Basin were identified based on geographical detectors, and habitat quality assessment was realized for the Weihe River Basin under the coupled scenarios of three typical shared socioeconomic pathways and future development patterns (SSP126-EP, SSP245-ND, SSP585-EG). The results show that 1) population, precipitation, and temperature are the major driving factors for land use change. 2) The coupling model of SD and FLUS can effectively simulate the future trend of land use change, the relative error is within 2 %, and the overall accuracy is 93.58 %. 3) Significant differences in habitat quality as a result of modifications in land use patterns in different contexts. Affected by ecological protection, the habitat quality in SSP126-EP was significantly better than that in SSP245-ND and SSP585-EG. This research can provide references for future watershed ecological management decisions.

The effects of landscape change on habitat quality in arid desert areas based on future scenarios: Tarim River Basin as a case study

Human activities have caused spatiotemporal patterns of land use and land cover (LULC) change. The LULC change has directly affected habitat quality (HQ) and ecosystem functions. Assessing, simulating, and predicting spatiotemporal changes and future trends under different scenarios of LULC-influenced HQ is beneficial to land use planners and decision-makers, helping them to formulate plans in a sustainable and responsible way. This study assesses and simulates the HQ of the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the future land use simulation model (FLUS), the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, and partial least squares regression (PLSR). Since 2000, the TRB has experienced a declining trend in HQ from 0.449 to 0.444, especially in the lower elevations (740-2000m) and on sloped land (<10°). The decline will continue unless effective and sustainable plans are implemented to halt it. Agricultural and settlement areas have a lower HQ and a higher degree of habitat degradation than native habitats. This shows that the expansion of oasis agriculture (with an annual growth rate of 372.17 km²) and settlements (with an annual growth rate of 23.50 km²) has caused a decline in native habitat and subsequent habitat fragmentation. In other words, changes in LULC have caused a decline in the HQ. Moreover, there is a significant negative correlation between HQ and urbanization rate (p<0.01), and the PLSR also indicate that number of patches (NP), area-weighted mean fractal dimension index (FRAC_AM), percentage of landscape (PLAND), and largest patch index (LPI) were also important contributors to worsening the HQ. Therefore, the TRB urgently needs appropriate strategies to preserve its natural habitats into the future, based on the ecological priority scenario (EPS) and harmonious development scenario (HDS), which can help to maintain a high-quality habitat.

Land use/land cover prediction and analysis of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under different scenarios

Land use and land cover (LULC) projections are critical for climate models to predict the impacts of LULC change on the Earth system. Different assumptions and policies influence LULC changes, which are a key factor in the decisions of planners and conservationists. Therefore, we predicted and analyzed LULC changes in future scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP5-85) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin (MYRB). We obtain historical (i.e., 2005-2020) LULC data from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform using the random forest (RF) classification method. LULC data for different future scenarios are also obtained by the driving factors of LULC changes in future shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (SSP-RCP) scenarios (i.e., 2035-2095) and the patch-generated land use simulation (PLUS) model. The major findings are as follows: (1) simulation using the PLUS model based on the acquired classification data and the selected drivers can obtain accurate land use data in MYRB and a Kappa coefficient of 89.6% and 0.82, respectively; (2) as for the LULC changes in the MYRB, forests increased by 3.9% and decreased by 1.2% in the SSP1-26 and SSP5-85 scenarios, respectively, while farmland decreased by 9.2% and increased by 13.4% in SSP 1-26 and SSP 2-45, respectively, during 2080-2095; and (3) the main conversions in LULC in the MYRB were farmland to forest, forests/water bodies to farmland, and forests/grasslands to farmland/buildings in SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP 5-8.5, respectively. This can be mainly attributed to gross domestic product (GDP), population (POP), temperature, and precipitation. Overall, this study not only contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms of LULC changes in the MYRB but also provides a basis for ecological and climatic studies.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Changes with Ecosystem Service Value in the Yellow River Basin

Land use change plays a crucial role in global environmental change. Understanding the mode and land use change procedure is conducive to improving the quality of the global eco-environment and promoting the harmonized development of human–land relationships. Large river basins play an important role in areal socioeconomic development. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is an important ecological protective screen, economic zone, and major grain producing area in China, which faces challenges with respect to ecological degradation and water and sediment management. Simulating the alterations in ecosystem service value (ESV) owing to land use change in the YRB under multiple scenarios is of great importance to guaranteeing the ecological security of the basin and improve the regional ESV. According to the land use data of 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2018, the alterations in the land use and ESV in the YRB over the past 30 years were calculated and analyzed on the basis of six land use types: cultivated land, forestland, grassland, water area, built-up land, and unused land. The patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to simulate the land use change in the study area under three scenarios (natural development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection in 2026); estimate the ESV under each scenario; and conduct a comparative analysis. We found that the land use area in the YRB changed significantly during the study period. The ESV of the YRB has slowly increased by ~USD 15 billion over the past 30 years. The ESV obtained under the ecological protection scenario is the highest. The simulation of the YRB’s future land use change, and comparison and analysis of the ESV under different scenarios, provide guidance and a scientific basis for promoting ecological conservation and high-quality development of river basins worldwide.

Land-Use Optimization Based on Ecosystem Service Value: A Case Study of Urban Agglomeration around Poyang Lake, China

The optimal allocation of land use is a promising approach to achieving the sustainable use of land resources, to weigh ecological protection and economic development. The urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake is a crucial plate for implementing the spatial planning policy of the national urban agglomeration and supporting the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Based on the ecosystem service value (ESV), we utilize the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR), the gray multi-objective planning (GMOP) and the future land-use simulation (FLUS) model to optimize the quantitative structure and spatial pattern of the land use in 2030. The present study designs four scenarios of baseline development (BD), ecological conservation (EC), economic priority (EP) and coordinated development (CD) to discuss how to optimize land-use allocation while considering ecological security and economic development. The result suggests that the land-use structure and spatial layout in the CD_scenario are relatively reasonable, and the overall eco-economic benefits and landscape pattern levels are better than those of the other three scenarios. Additionally, the ecological security and landscape pattern indices are optimized, landscape fragmentation decreases and aggregation degree increases. This study is instructive to promote the sustainable development of urban agglomeration and land spatial planning.

Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Land Use and Carbon Storage Changes in Changchun City Based on FLUS and InVEST Model

Land use change is an important reason for changes in carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Therefore, analyzing the impact of land use change on carbon storage is important for exploring the sustainable development of cities and improving the value of ecosystem services. Taking Changchun City in the northeast of China as the research area, this paper simulates land use patterns under three scenarios up to 2030 using the FLUS model and assesses carbon storage from 2010 to 2030 using the InVEST model. It estimates the impact of land use change on carbon storage under several scenarios in Changchun. The results show that cultivated land plays an important role in carbon storage in Changchun. The transfer of cultivated land to construction land has been the main land use type conversion over the past decade, which has led to most of the carbon storage loss. In the natural growth scenario, the carbon storage would decline further. In the cultivated land protection scenario, meanwhile, this situation would be greatly improved. In the ecological protection scenario, the carbon storage would be increased due to the protection of ecological land. In the future, we should protect existing resources while simultaneously comprehensively improving the economic, social, and ecological benefits of the land.

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Future Simulation of Agricultural Land Use in Xiangxi, Central China

Researches on agricultural land use would help the stakeholders to make better decisions about agricultural resources. However, studies on agricultural land have been lacking. In this context, Xiangxi was chosen as a typical region, and five indicators (Kernel Density, change importance, etc.) and two models (gray forecasting model and GeoSoS-FLUS) were used, to explore the spatio-temporal evolution trends and simulate the future scenarios of agricultural land use. The results were as follows: (1) Xiangxi was dominated by agricultural land, and nearly 50% of total extent was forestry land. Extent of agricultural land decreased by about 56.89 km2 or 3.74% from 2000 to 2018; (2) The density of each agricultural land in the study area had considerable spatial heterogeneity, and showed a main trend of shrinkage, especially in the south regions; (3) In 2030, the spatial pattern and composition of agricultural land in Xiangxi will maintain the existing status, while both of the area and proportion of agricultural land will decline, with a loss of 241.34 km2 or 2.85% decrease from 2000. Nevertheless, the study believed that the slight shrinkage of the agricultural land in Xiangxi is in line with the objective law. At the same time, the study suggested to strengthen the scientific management and rational utilization of agricultural land, with emphasis on arable land and fishery land in the south, especially the administrative center.

Impacts of Land Use Changes on Net Primary Productivity in Urban Agglomerations under Multi-Scenarios Simulation

Land use is closely related to the sustainability of ecological development. This paper employed a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model for the multi-scenario simulation of urban agglomerations. In addition, mathematical analysis methods such as Theil-Sen Median trend analysis, R/S analysis, Getis-Ord Gi* index and unary linear regression were used to study the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of net primary productivity (NPP) for the impact of land use changes on NPP in urban agglomerations from 2000 to 2020 and to forecast the future trend of NPP. The results indicate that urban expansion is obvious in the baseline scenario and in the ecological protection scenario. In the scenario of cropland protection, the urban expansion is consistent with the land use plan of the government for 2035. The NPP in Beijing decreased gradually from northwest to southeast. The hot spot areas are concentrated in the densely forested areas in the mountainous areas of northwest. The cold spot areas are mainly concentrated in the periphery of urban areas and water areas. The NPP will continue to increase in forest and other areas under protection and remain stable in impervious surfaces. The NPP of Beijing showed a strong improvement trend and this trend will continue with the right ecological management and urban planning of the government. The study of land use in urban agglomeration and the development trend of vegetation NPP in the future can help policymakers rationally manage future land use dynamics and maintain the sustainable development of urban regional ecosystems.

Global land projection based on plant functional types with a 1-km resolution under socio-climatic scenarios

This study presents a global land projection dataset with a 1-km resolution that comprises 20 land types for 2015-2100, adopting the latest IPCC coupling socioeconomic and climate change scenarios, SSP-RCP. This dataset was produced by combining the top-down land demand constraints afforded by the CMIP6 official dataset and a bottom-up spatial simulation executed via cellular automata. Based on the climate data, we further subdivided the simulation products' land types into 20 plant functional types (PFTs), which well meets the needs of climate models for input data. The results show that our global land simulation yields a satisfactory accuracy (Kappa = 0.864, OA = 0.929 and FoM = 0.102). Furthermore, our dataset well fits the latest climate research based on the SSP-RCP scenarios. Particularly, due to the advantages of fine resolution, latest scenarios and numerous land types, our dataset provides powerful data support for environmental impact assessment and climate research, including but not limited to climate models.

Optimization of Production–Living–Ecological Space in National Key Poverty-Stricken City of Southwest China

Trade-offs and conflicts among different sectors of production, living, and ecology have become important issues in regional sustainable development planning due to both the versatility and limitation of land resources, especially in poverty-stricken mountainous areas. This study builds an optimization model to assist policymakers in simulating land demand and allocation in the future. The model takes socioeconomic and demographic development into consideration and couples local planning policy with land use data from the perspective of system integration. The model was employed for a case study of Zhaotong city to optimize production–living–ecological (PLE) space. The results show that the model provides a feasible method to explore the sustainable development pattern of territorial space, especially in distressed regions.

Dynamic characteristics and synergistic effects of ecosystem services under climate change scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) supplies many ecosystem services (ESs) that maintain local and global pan-Asian populations and ecosystems. The effects of climate change on ES provision in the QTP will have far-reaching impacts on the region and the many downstream ecosystems and countries that depend on ESs from the "Third Pole". This study undertook a systematic assessment of ES provision, trade-offs and synergies between four ESs (raw material provision, water yield, soil retention, and carbon storage) under future climate scenarios (representative concentration pathway). The results show that: (1) the total amount of the four ESs on the QTP is predicted to increase from 1980 to 2100 for three climate change scenarios. (2) The spatial pattern of ESs on the QTP will not change significantly in the future, and the grassland and forest ESs in the central and southern regions are predicted to increase significantly. (3) The synergistic interactions among ESs were generally consistent at three spatial scales (10 km (pixel), county and watershed scales), but with more significant synergistic effects at the watershed scale. This demonstrates the necessity for the examination of scale-dependent ES dynamics and interactions. This study will supply a reference for further research on long-term ES assessments, especially the dynamic ES changes and the spatial scale dependency of the ES interactions, and provide evidence-based strategies for formulating ecosystem management on the QTP under climate change.

The Spatial and Temporal Evolution and Drivers of Habitat Quality in the Hung River Valley

The survival and sustainability of regional species is constrained by habitat quality. In recent decades, the intensification of human activities on a global scale has had a profound impact on regional ecosystems and poses a serious threat to regional sustainable development. Scientific measurement of the drivers of habitat quality can provide important support for the development of effective biodiversity conservation and sustainable land-use policies. Taking the Hung River Valley as an example, the InVEST model was used to assess the habitat quality of the study area in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 and to explore its spatial and temporal variation and distribution characteristics in combination with the spatial autocorrelation model, and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was used to explore the drivers of habitat quality change. The results show the following: (1) The overall habitat quality shows an increasing trend during 2000–2020, but the expansion of construction land in the central region plays a dominant role in the degradation of regional habitat quality. (2) The “Guide-Ledu” line is the dividing line of habitat quality in the Hung River Valley, with a general distribution of “south is good, north is bad” and “south is hot, north is cold”. (3) Natural factors such as slope and elevation basically shape the overall distribution pattern of habitat quality, while urbanisation factors such as population density, gross domestic product, and the night-time lighting index are generally negatively correlated with habitat quality. The results of the study can reveal the linkage between ecosystems and land-use change in the context of urbanisation.

Gray Forecast of Ecosystem Services Value and Its Driving Forces in Karst Areas of China: A Case Study in Guizhou Province, China

A sound ecosystem is the prerequisite for the sustainable development of human society, and the karst ecosystem is a key component of the global ecosystem, which is essential to human welfare and livelihood. However, there remains a gap in the literature on the changing trend and driving factors of ecosystem services value (ESV) in karst areas. In this study, Guizhou Province, a representative region of karst mountainous areas, was taken as a case to bridge the gap. ESV in the karst areas was predicted, based on the land use change data in 2009-2018, and the driving mechanisms were explored through the gray correlation analysis method. Results show that a total loss of CNY 21.47 billion ESV from 2009 to 2018 is due to the conversion of a total of 22.566% of the land in Guizhou, with forest land as the main cause of ESV change. By 2025 and 2030, the areas of garden land, water area, and construction land in Guizhou Province will continue to increase, whereas the areas of cultivated land, forest land, and garden land will decline. The total ESV shows a downward trend and will decrease to CNY 218.71 billion by 2030. Gray correlation analysis results illuminate that the total population and tertiary industry proportion are the uppermost, among all the driving factors that affect ESV change. The findings in this study have important implications for optimizing and adjusting the land use structure ecological protection and will enrich the literature on ESV in ecologically fragile areas.

Assessment and Estimation of the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Landscape Patterns and Their Impact on Habitat Quality in Nanchang, China

Assessing and predicting the evolution of habitat quality based on land use change under the process of urbanization is important for establishing a comprehensive ecological planning system and addressing the major challenges of global sustainable development. Here, two different prediction models were used to simulate the land use changes in 2025 based on the land use distribution data of Nanchang city in three periods and integrated into the habitat quality assessment model to specifically evaluate the trends and characteristics of future habitat quality changes, explore the impact of landscape pattern evolution on habitat, and analyze the differences and advantages of the two prediction models. The results show that the overall habitat quality in Nanchang declined significantly during the period 1995–2015. Habitat degradation near cities and in various watersheds is relatively significant. During the period 2015–2025, the landscape pattern and habitat quality of Nanchang will continue to maintain the trend of changes observed between 1995 and 2015, i.e., increasing construction land and decreasing habitat quality, with high pressure on ecological restoration. This study also identified that CA-Markov simulates the quantity of land use better, while FLUS simulates the spatial pattern of land use better. Overall, this study provides a reference for exploring the complex dynamic evolution mechanism of habitats.

Spatial Pattern Simulation of Land Use Based on FLUS Model under Ecological Protection: A Case Study of Hengyang City

With rapid economic development in China, the excessive expansion of cities has led to the imbalance of land use structure, and then the ecological regulation function of the land ecosystem experiences problems, which has become an obstacle to sustainable development. Therefore, in order to protect the ecological environment, regulate urban development and pursue the maximization of ecological benefits, it is necessary to analyze, simulate and predict land use change. In this study, Hengyang City was taken as the study area, and based on the current land use data of Hengyang City in 2010, 2015, and 2018, the land use type transfer during 2010–2015 and 2015–2018 was analyzed. Then, starting from 2010, the FLUS model was used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in 2015 and 2018, and then the spatial distribution of land use in Hengyang City in 2025 was predicted with the Markov prediction method under the premise of ecological protection priority. The results show that the change in ecological land in Hengyang City is mainly distributed in the surrounding and marginal areas, because the topography of Hengyang City is a basin. Changes in land type in Hengyang City in 2015 were subtle and difficult to observe. However, in 2018, the transformation of non-ecological land into ecological land was obvious, and the distribution area of ecological land expanded significantly. The Kappa index of the results simulated by the FLUS model based on neural network is above 0.72, and overall accuracy is above 0.9, which is highly consistent with the actual situation. It is reasonable and convincing to predict the spatial distribution of land use in the context of ecological protection. The predicted results can be useful for urban planning and land use distribution and provide a reference for relevant decision-makers.

Flood Risk Assessment under Land Use and Climate Change in Wuhan City of the Yangtze River Basin, China

Frequently occurring flood disasters caused by extreme climate and urbanization processes have become the most common natural hazard and pose a great threat to human society. Therefore, urban flood risk assessment is of great significance for disaster mitigation and prevention. In this paper, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to quantify the spatiotemporal variations in flood risk in Wuhan during 2000–2018. A comprehensive flood risk assessment index system was constructed from the hazard, sensitivity, and vulnerability components with seven indices. The results showed that the central urban area, especially the area in the west bank of the Yangtze river, had high risk due to its high flood sensitivity that was determined by land use type and high vulnerability with dense population and per unit GDP. Specifically, the Jianghan, Qiaokou, Jiangan, and Wuchang districts had the highest flood risk, more than 60% of whose area was in medium or above-medium risk regions. During 2000–2018, the flood risk overall showed an increasing trend, with Hongshan district increasing the most, and the year of 2010 was identified as a turning point for rapid risk increase. In addition, the comparison between the risk maps and actual historical inundation point records showed good agreement, indicating that the assessment framework and method proposed in this study can be useful to assist flood mitigation and management, and relevant policy recommendations were proposed based on the assessment results.

Methodology for Determining the Nearest Destinations for the Evacuation of People and Equipment from a Disaster Area to a Safe Area

Floods are the most frequent natural disasters in the world. In the system of warning and flood protection of areas at risk of flooding in the event of its occurrence, it seems advisable to initially work out the possibility of evacuating the population, animals, equipment, material values, etc. In this article, a methodology for determining destinations (points of destination) for the evacuation of people and equipment from a predicted flood zone (of a natural disaster) to a safe area is proposed based upon the criterion of the shortest possible distance. In the paper, a scenario is considered that involves the contours of the flood zone boundaries for several variants of the intensity of the probable development of future events (with the aid of geoinformation technologies), and the coordinates of the objects to evacuate are permanent and known in advance. With the known coordinates of the objects and the closest points of the boundary of the predicted flood zone, the shortest distances can be calculated. Based on these calculations, the appropriate destinations for evacuation are determined. The proposed methodology can be used for flood forecasting and flood zone modeling to assess the economic and social risks of their aftereffects and to allow the public, local governments, and other organizations to better understand the potential risks of floods and to identify the measures needed to save lives and avoid damage to and loss of property and equipment. This methodology, in contrast to known approaches, allows the determination of the nearest locations for the evacuation of people and equipment from a flood zone (of a natural disaster) to safe areas, to be determined for several variants, depending on the possible development of future events. The methodology is algorithm-driven and presented in the form of a flowchart and is suitable for use in the appropriate software. The proposed methodology is an introduction to the next stages of research related to the determination of safe places for evacuation of people and their property (equipment) to safe places. This is especially important in case of sudden weather events (flash floods).

Land Use Dynamics and Optimization from 2000 to 2020 in East Guangdong Province, China

Anthropogenic land-use change is one of the main drivers of global environmental change. China has been on a fast track of land-use change since the Reform and Opening-up policy in 1978. In view of the situation, this study aims to optimize land use and provide a way to effectively coordinate the development and ecological protection in China. We took East Guangdong (EGD), an underdeveloped but populous region, as a case study. We used land-use changes indexes to demonstrate the land-use dynamics in EGD from 2000 to 2020, then identified the hot spots for fast-growing areas of built-up land and simulated land use in 2030 using the future land-use simulation (FLUS) model. The results indicated that the cropland and the built-up land changed in a large proportion during the study period. Then we established the ecological security pattern (ESP) according to the minimal cumulative resistance model (MCRM) based on the natural and socioeconomic factors. Corridors, buffer zones, and the key nodes were extracted by the MCRM to maintain landscape connectivity and key ecological processes of the study area. Moreover, the study showed the way to identify the conflict zones between future built-up land expansion with the corridors and buffer zones, which will be critical areas of consideration for future land-use management. Finally, some relevant policy recommendations are proposed based on the research result.

Multi-Scenario Analysis of Habitat Quality in the Yellow River Delta by Coupling FLUS with InVEST Model

The past decades were witnessing unprecedented habitat degradation across the globe. It thus is of great significance to investigate the impacts of land use change on habitat quality in the context of rapid urbanization, particularly in developing countries. However, rare studies were conducted to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of habitat quality under multiple future land use scenarios. In this paper, we established a framework by coupling the future land use simulation (FLUS) model with the Intergrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. We then analyzed the habitat quality change in Dongying City in 2030 under four scenarios: business as usual (BAU), fast cultivated land expansion scenario (FCLE), ecological security scenario (ES) and sustainable development scenario (SD). We found that the land use change in Dongying City, driven by urbanization and agricultural reclamation, was mainly characterized by the transfer of cultivated land, construction land and unused land; the area of unused land was significantly reduced. While the habitat quality in Dongying City showed a degradative trend from 2009 to 2017, it will be improved from 2017 to 2030 under four scenarios. The high-quality habitat will be mainly distributed in the Yellow River Estuary and coastal areas, and the areas with low-quality habitat will be concentrated in the central and southern regions. Multi-scenario analysis shows that the SD will have the highest habitat quality, while the BAU scenario will have the lowest. It is interesting that the ES scenario fails to have the highest capacity to protect habitat quality, which may be related to the excessive saline alkali land. Appropriate reclamation of the unused land is conducive to cultivated land protection and food security, but also improving the habitat quality and giving play to the versatility and multidimensional value of the agricultural landscape. This shows that the SD of comprehensive coordination of urban development, agricultural development and ecological protection is an effective way to maintain the habitat quality and biodiversity.

Research on an Analytical Framework for Urban Spatial Structural and Functional Optimisation: A Case Study of Beijing City, China

A number of severe ecological problems, and the altered structure of urban spaces, are ascribed to rapid urbanisation. Hence, an analytical framework for urban spatial structure and functional optimisation is highly beneficial to balance the contradiction between developing urban areas and protecting their ecosystems. In this paper, the proposed analytical framework included three parts. We first delineated the ecological suitability zones (ESZs) of Beijing City by applying the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model. Subsequently, considering various socioeconomic and natural environmental factors, the Markov chain model and future land-use simulation (FLUS) model were utilised to predict the urban spatial structure of Beijing in 2031. Finally, taking the ESZ results as a constraint, three scenarios were designed to optimise the extent of city sprawl: the business as usual (BAU) scenario, ecological security (ES) scenario and ecological priority (EP) scenario. We found that the ESZs contained three zones: an ecological control zone (63%), a restricted development zone (22%), and a concentrated development zone (15%). After comparing the three scenarios, we discovered that the ES scenarios ensured the bottom line in terms of Beijing’s ecological security. Additionally, under the EP scenario, the urban spatial structure and function were further optimised. Our study can provide new ideas and technical support for the reasonable layout of urban spatial structure.

Urban Coastal Flood-Prone Mapping under the Combined Impact of Tidal Wave and Heavy Rainfall: A Proposal to the Existing National Standard

The drivers for coastal flooding may vary from extremely high intensity and persistent rainfall, morphological factors of the coastal area, to extreme waves from the ocean. This means that the flood vulnerability of a coastal area does not solely depend on a single driver but can be a combination with others. A national standard for coastal flooding based on rainfall drivers has been developed. As an evaluation, this study aimed to develop a method for coastal flood-prone mapping by combining rainfall with tidal waves. The steps included the assessment of the coastal flood-prone areas driven by rainfall (CFR) and the coastal flood-prone areas by combined drivers (CFC), which was developed by employing the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), spatial-overlaid, weighted-scored, and logical tests. The coastal area of Mataram City on the Island of Lombok in Indonesia was selected as the study area, since it is frequently affected by flooding. The findings determined the essentiality of the CFC method for identifying flood vulnerability areas. Thus, the minimum standard for CFC parameters can be defined with climatic and land characteristic factors. Further, the findings also identified the need for expert judgment in the development of the CFC weighted score-based method.