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Liu H, Zhang X, Deng L, Zhao Y, Tao S, Jia H, Xu J, Xia J. A simulation and risk assessment framework for water-energy-environment nexus: A case study in the city cluster along the middle reach of the Yangtze River, China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 912:169212. [PMID: 38097084 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169212] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2023] [Revised: 11/16/2023] [Accepted: 12/06/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023]
Abstract
In the Anthropocene, there is a strong interlinkage among water, energy, and the environment. The water-energy-environment nexus (WEEN) has been vigorously advocated as an emerging development paradigm and a global research agenda. Based on the nexus concept, a framework for the WEEN complex system simulation and risk assessment is developed. The three metropolitan areas of the city cluster along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (CCMRYR) are taken as the objects. Regional policies are combined with generic shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to form a localized SSPs suitable for the research region. The dynamic simulation of the WEEN complex system and the risk analysis are carried out with the combination of system dynamics models and copula functions. Results show that: There are obvious differences in water utilization, energy consumption, air pollutant emissions, and water pollutant emissions among the three metropolitan areas. The issue of high carbon intensity in the Wuhan Metropolitan Coordinating Region needs to be emphasized and solved from the perspective of optimizing the industrial structure. Adhering to current development patterns, there will be successive peaks in water utilization, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in Wuhan, Dongting Lake, and Poyang Lake Metropolitan Coordinating Region by 2030, leading to high synergy risks at the systemic level, with maximum values of 0.84, 0.85, 0.62, respectively. A development path based on conservation priorities indicates that future policymaking needs to prioritize a resource-saving and pollution-control development pattern directed by technological upgrading against the backdrop of scarce natural resource endowments. The localized SSPs are a beneficial extension that enriches the narrative of regional-scale SSPs. The evolutionary trajectories and risk assessments of WEEN complex systems under different localized SSPs provide a sweeping insight into the consequences of policy decisions, thus enabling policymakers to appraise policy rationality and implement appropriate corrective measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haoyuan Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
| | - Xiang Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China.
| | - Liangkun Deng
- State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
| | - Ye Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
| | - Shiyong Tao
- State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
| | - Haifeng Jia
- School of environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Jing Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
| | - Jun Xia
- State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
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Nishizawa T, Kay S, Schuler J, Klein N, Conradt T, Mielewczik M, Herzog F, Aurbacher J, Zander P. Towards diverse agricultural land uses: socio-ecological implications of European agricultural pathways for a Swiss orchard region. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 2023; 23:97. [PMID: 37489177 PMCID: PMC10363045 DOI: 10.1007/s10113-023-02092-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2022] [Accepted: 06/23/2023] [Indexed: 07/26/2023]
Abstract
Diverse agricultural land uses are a typical feature of multifunctional landscapes. The uncertain change in the drivers of global land use, such as climate, market and policy technology and demography, challenges the long-term management of agricultural diversification. As these global drivers also affect smaller scales, it is important to capture the traits of regionally specific farm activities to facilitate adaptation to change. By downscaling European shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for agricultural and food systems, combined with representative concentration pathways (RCP) to regionally specific, alternative socioeconomic and climate scenarios, the present study explores the major impacts of the drivers of global land use on regional agriculture by simulating farm-level decisions and identifies the socio-ecological implications for promoting diverse agricultural landscapes in 2050. A hilly orchard region in northern Switzerland was chosen as a case study to represent the multifunctional nature of Swiss agriculture. Results show that the different regionalised pathways lead to contrasting impacts on orchard meadows, production levels and biodiversity. Increased financial support for ecological measures, adequate farm labour supplies for more labour-intensive farming and consumer preferences that favour local farm produce can offset the negative impacts of climate change and commodity prices and contribute to agricultural diversification and farmland biodiversity. However, these conditions also caused a significant decline in farm production levels. This study suggests that considering a broader set of land use drivers beyond direct payments, while acknowledging potential trade-offs and diverse impacts across different farm types, is required to effectively manage and sustain diversified agricultural landscapes in the long run. Supplementary information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-023-02092-5.
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Affiliation(s)
- Takamasa Nishizawa
- Farm Economics and Ecosystem Services, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) e.V., Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Sonja Kay
- Agricultural Landscapes and Biodiversity, Agroscope, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Johannes Schuler
- Farm Economics and Ecosystem Services, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) e.V., Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Noëlle Klein
- Agricultural Landscapes and Biodiversity, Agroscope, Zurich, Switzerland
- Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems (PLUS), ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Tobias Conradt
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Michael Mielewczik
- Department of Sustainability Assessment and Agricultural Management, Socioeconomics, Agroscope, Ettenhausen, Switzerland
| | - Felix Herzog
- Agricultural Landscapes and Biodiversity, Agroscope, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Joachim Aurbacher
- Institute of Farm and Agribusiness Management, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Giessen, Germany
| | - Peter Zander
- Farm Economics and Ecosystem Services, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) e.V., Müncheberg, Germany
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Alizadeh MR, Adamowski J, Inam A. Integrated assessment of localized SSP-RCP narratives for climate change adaptation in coupled human-water systems. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 823:153660. [PMID: 35124036 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153660] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2021] [Revised: 01/07/2022] [Accepted: 01/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The assessment of climate change impacts requires downscaled climate projections and context-specific socioeconomic scenarios. The development of practical climate change adaptation for environmental sustainability at regional and local scales is predicated on a strong understanding of future socio-economic dynamics under a range of potential climate projections. We have addressed this need using integrated assessment of a localized hybrid Shared Socio-economic Pathway - Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) framework, through an interdisciplinary and participatory storyline development process that integrates bottom-up local expert-stakeholder knowledge with top-down insights from global SSPs. We use the global SSPs (SSP1 to SSP5) as boundary conditions in conjunction with climate change pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) to create localized SSP narratives in an iterative participatory process, using a storytelling method. By using an integrated socio-economic and environmental system dynamics model developed in collaboration with local stakeholders, we explore the potential impacts of plausible local SSP-RCP narratives and quantify important socio-environmental vulnerabilities of a human-water system (e.g., crop yields, farm income, water security and groundwater depletion) by the mid-century period (i.e., by 2050). The framework is developed to inform climate adaptation for Pakistan's Rechna Doab region, which serves as a representative case of a multi-stakeholder coupled human-water system operating in a developing country. Our results suggest that even under limited socio-economic improvements (e.g., technology, policies, institutions, environmental awareness) water security would be expected to decline and environmental degradation (e.g., groundwater depletion) to worsen. Under RCP 4.5, the average projected increase in water demand in 2030 will be about 7.32% for all SSP scenario narratives, and 10.82% by mid-century. Groundwater use varies significantly across SSPs which results in an average increase of about 29.06% for all SSPs. The proposed framework facilitates the development of future adaptation policies that should consider regional and local planning as well as socio-economic conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammad Reza Alizadeh
- Department of Bioresource Engineering, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, St. Anne De Bellevue, QC, H9X 3V9, Canada.
| | - Jan Adamowski
- Department of Bioresource Engineering, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, St. Anne De Bellevue, QC, H9X 3V9, Canada
| | - Azhar Inam
- Department of Bioresource Engineering, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, St. Anne De Bellevue, QC, H9X 3V9, Canada; Department of Agricultural Engineering, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Punjab 60800, Pakistan
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Gazing into the Crystal Ball: A Review of Futures Analysis to Promote Environmental Justice in the UK Water Industry. SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14084586] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Water is a vital and multifunctional resource for our society, economy and ecosystems; thus, how water is managed now and into the future has wide-reaching consequences. Sustainable water management and environmental justice therefore become key topics; a discussion of these terms is explored in the context of the UK water industry, which provides the focus for this study. This systematic review explores how considerations of the future have been applied in water research. The literature is reviewed with respect to (1) defining the end goal, (2) the use of futures analysis and (3) possible evaluation methods, including a discussion on the boundaries applied to each of the studies. A growing body of research associated with decision-making applying future scenarios was identified. However, the methods of application varied substantially, with holistic analyses largely lacking. The formulation of methods appears to be specific to the goal that is sought as well as the cultural influence of the region in which the analysis was developed and deployed. This paper presents a case for the visualisation of catchment characteristics and interdependencies to enable transparency in decision-making. This should reflect not only the current system but also a range of potential futures to enable appraisal of impacts.
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Lyon C, Saupe EE, Smith CJ, Hill DJ, Beckerman AP, Stringer LC, Marchant R, McKay J, Burke A, O'Higgins P, Dunhill AM, Allen BJ, Riel-Salvatore J, Aze T. Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:349-361. [PMID: 34558764 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15871] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2021] [Revised: 08/14/2021] [Accepted: 08/29/2021] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Anthropogenic activity is changing Earth's climate and ecosystems in ways that are potentially dangerous and disruptive to humans. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise, ensuring that these changes will be felt for centuries beyond 2100, the current benchmark for projection. Estimating the effects of past, current, and potential future emissions to only 2100 is therefore short-sighted. Critical problems for food production and climate-forced human migration are projected to arise well before 2100, raising questions regarding the habitability of some regions of the Earth after the turn of the century. To highlight the need for more distant horizon scanning, we model climate change to 2500 under a suite of emission scenarios and quantify associated projections of crop viability and heat stress. Together, our projections show global climate impacts increase significantly after 2100 without rapid mitigation. As a result, we argue that projections of climate and its effects on human well-being and associated governance and policy must be framed beyond 2100.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher Lyon
- Department of Natural Resource Sciences, McGill University, Ste Anne de Bellevue, Quebec, Canada
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Erin E Saupe
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Christopher J Smith
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Daniel J Hill
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Andrew P Beckerman
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | | | - Robert Marchant
- Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York, UK
| | - James McKay
- School of Chemical and Process Engineering, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Ariane Burke
- Département d'Anthropologie, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Paul O'Higgins
- Department of Archaeology and Hull York Medical School, University of York, York, UK
| | | | - Bethany J Allen
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | | | - Tracy Aze
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
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