Predicted range shifts of invasive giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum) in Europe

Predicted climate-induced range shifts and conservation challenges of the western barbastelle bat (Barbastella barbastellus)

Climate change is driving changes in species distributions, particularly affecting specialists and species with limited adaptability. A notable example is the European bat, Barbastella barbastellus, which hibernates in cold, less insulated shelters, is closely associated with old mixed or deciduous forests, and is adapted to feed on moths. Populations of this species are declining and climate change is recognised as a significant contributing factor. In this study, we used species distribution modelling (SDM) techniques to evaluate current and future potential habitat suitability across Europe, incorporating three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585. Additionally, we assessed the extent of habitat suitability changes under projected climatic conditions within Natura 2000 sites that are aimed at conserving this species. Our projections indicate a possible northward range shift for B. barbastellus, coupled with fragmentation and habitat loss in southern Europe. Furthermore, areas currently protected by the Natura 2000 network may no longer provide suitable conditions for this species in the future. Our study highlights the urgent need for adaptive conservation strategies within networks such as Natura 2000 to protect species increasingly threatened by climate change, with B. barbastellus serving as an example.

Predicting suitable habitats of parasitic desert species based on Biomod2 ensemble model: Cynomorium songaricum rupr and its host plants as an example

BACKGROUND

As a species of considerable medicinal, ecological, and economic significance, the protection of C. songaricum and its host plants is of paramount importance. Biodiversity patterns and species distribution are profoundly influenced by climate change. Understanding the adaptive mechanisms of organisms in response to these changes is essential for effective species conservation. However, there is currently limited information available on simulating habitat suitability and assessing key environmental factors associated with parasite species using niche models.

METHODS

This study utilized environmental and species distribution data to analyze the shifts in the geographic range of C. songaricum and its host plants under current and projected future climate scenarios using the Biomod2 platform, which integrates multiple individual models into an ensemble framework. Additionally, the study quantified the environmental variables influencing the observed distribution patterns.

RESULTS

The potential geographical distribution and overlapping areas of C. songaricum and its host plants are primarily concentrated in Asia and North America. Under all four scenarios within the two timeframes (2041-2060 and 2061-2080), the overall suitable habitat areas for C. songaricum, Nitraria tangutorum Bobr., N. sphaerocarpa Maxim., and Peganum multisectum (Maxim.) Bobrov are expected to decrease compared with current climatic conditions. Conversely, the total area of suitable habitat for Kalidium foliatum (Pall.) Moq., Nitraria sibirica Pall., and Zygophyllum xanthoxylum (Bunge) Maxim. is predicted to increase. All species except K. foliatum will experience greater reductions between 2041 and 2060 than between 2061 and 2080 under more severe climate change scenarios. There is significant ecological niche overlap among C. songaricum, N. sphaerocarpa, N. tangutorum, and P. multisectum. Key factors influencing the future distribution of C. songaricum include the mean ultraviolet-B light of the lowest month, altitude, and annual mean temperature.

CONCLUSION

A comprehensive analysis demonstrated that the accuracy of predictions could be significantly enhanced and the distributional error for individual species could be minimized by employing the Biomod2 ensemble model to simulate the suitable habitats of parasitic species. The findings of this study can significantly inform both the management of C. songaricum plantations and the conservation of C. songaricum and its host plants.

Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Papilio xuthus

The Papilio xuthus is a widely distributed species in the genus Papilio of the family Papilionidae, possessing ecological, ornamental, and socio-economic service values. To determine the ecological role of P. xuthus and assess its population distribution under future climate change scenarios, this study utilized the MaxEnt model to predict the geographic distribution of P. xuthus in the future and evaluate its population dynamics. The results indicated that P. xuthus is currently widely distributed in East Asia, with a high suitability area of 1827.83 × 103 km2, primarily in China, Japan, North Korea, and South Korea. Climate change has a significant impact on the geographic distribution of P. xuthus, with its high suitability areas decreasing in the future, particularly within China, where the change is projected to be as high as 46.46% under the SSP126 scenario by the 2050s. The centroid of its high-suitability area is expected to shift northeastward. Key environmental variable analysis revealed that Temperature Seasonality, Mean Temperature of the Wettest Quarter, Precipitation of the Wettest Month, and Precipitation of the Warmest Quarter are critical factors influencing the selection of suitable habitats by P. xuthus. This study assessed the distribution of P. xuthus and provided conservation recommendations, offering a reference for future population control and conservation efforts.

MaxEnt-Based Predictions of Suitable Potential Distribution of Leymus secalinus Under Current and Future Climate Change

Grassland degradation is a serious ecological issue in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China. Utilizing native grasses for the restoration of degraded grasslands is an effective technological approach. Leymus secalinus is a superior indigenous grass species for grassland ecological restoration in northern China. Therefore, the excavation of potential distribution areas of L. secalinus and important ecological factors affecting its distribution is crucial for grassland conservation and restoration of degraded grasslands. Based on 357 data points collected on the natural distribution of L. secalinus, this study employs the jackknife method and Pearson correlation analysis to screen out 23 variables affecting its spatial distribution. The MaxEnt model was used herein to predict the current suitable distribution area of L. secalinus and the suitable distribution of L. secalinus under different SSP scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, and SSP5-85) for future climate. The results showed the following: (1) Mean diurnal temperature range, annual mean temperature, precipitation of the wettest quarter, and elevation are the major factors impacting the distribution of L. secalinus. (2) Under the current climatic conditions, L. secalinus is mainly distributed in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China; in addition, certain suitable areas also exist in parts of Xinjiang, Tibet, Sichuan, Heilongjiang, and Jilin. (3) Under future climate change scenarios, the suitable areas for L. secalinus are generally the same as at present, with slight changes in area under different scenarios, with the largest expansion of 97,222 km2 of suitable area in 2021-2040 under the SSP1-26 scenario and the largest shrinkage of potential suitable area in 2061-2080 under the SSP2-45 scenario, with 87,983 km2. Notably, the northern boundary of the middle- and high-suitability areas is reduced, while the northeastern boundary and some areas of Heilongjiang and Jilin are expanded. The results of this study revealed the suitable climatic conditions and potential distribution range of L. secalinus, which can provide a reference for the conservation, introduction, and cultivation of L. secalinus in new ecological zones, avoiding the blind introduction of inappropriate habitats, and is also crucial for sustaining the economic benefits associated with L. secalinus ecological services.

Shifts in native tree species distributions in Europe under climate change

Key European tree species are expected to contract their ranges under changing climate, thus there is a need to assess range shifts for other native tree species that could fill their forest niche. Recent studies have focused on economically important species, revealing a wide range of shifts in their distribution worldwide and highlighting several pathways for potential future changes. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat levels by the years 2041-60 and 2061-80, for 20 European temperate forest tree species under four climate change scenarios. We compared ten standard stock tree species with ten alternative stock species, that are less frequent and less preferred by managers. We combined distribution data from several sources for each tree species and developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and seven bioclimatic variables. We applied these models to projections of future climate from four global circulation models, under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and for near and middle terms: 2041-60 and 2061-80. We also assessed the relationships between predicted range contraction and their functional traits. Analysis of MaxEnt models divided the studied tree species into three groups: non-threatened (Sorbus torminalis, Ulmus minor, Tilia platyphyllos, Acer pseudoplatanus, Prunus avium, and Carpinus betulus), partially threatened (U. laevis, Betula pendula, Quercus robur, Q. petraea, A. platanoides, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, T. cordata, Alnus glutinosa, and U. glabra), and the most threatened (Abies alba, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris). For the last group, almost half of the range contraction will occur earlier (2041-2060) compared to our previous predictions (2061-2080). The proportion of range contraction decreased with increasing specific leaf area, leaf area, leaf nitrogen content, seed mass, and specific stem density while it increased with increasing height. Our study provides novel predictions of shifts in climatic optima under the most recent climate change scenarios, which would be useful for evidence-based conservation and management of European forests. The near-term predicted threats to the main standard stock tree species call for intensified preparation for incoming changes. We recommend splitting the silvicultural risks over a wider range of tree species, also including alternative stock species.

Unveiling the suitable habitats and future conservation strategies of Tridacna maxima in the Indo-Pacific core area based on species distribution model

Climate change is exerting unprecedented impacts on marine habitats, and many sessile invertebrate species, such as the endangered giant clam Tridacna maxima, are particularly sensitive to climate driven changes in their environment. Understanding its spatial distribution and conservation requirements is of crucial significance in formulating effective protection strategies. However, the species has been extensively harvested and depleted in many regions, leading to its listing as endangered species by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). While marine protected areas (MPAs) are considered effective conservation tools, it remains uncertain whether existing MPAs adequately protect these vulnerable giant clams. To enhance the management and conservation of this species, we employed a Species Distribution Models (SDMs) approach, integrating occurrence records of T. maxima with environmental variables, to predict its potential distribution based on habitat suitability and capture spatiotemporal changes. Based on geographical and genetic variations, the T. maxima in the Indo-Pacific core region is primarily divided into two populations: the East Indian Ocean-South China Sea population (EIOS) and the West Pacific-Indonesia population (WPI). We first quantified realized niche to reveal significant differences in ecological niche space among different populations. Subsequently, SDMs were constructed at both species and population levels, demonstrating that population-level SDMs provide more reliable predictions of population distributions due to differential responses to climatic predictor variables. Finally, we conducted an assessment to identify conservation gaps for T. maxima beyond the existing MPAs and proposed recommendations for future establishment of MPAs within the current framework. Based on these findings, appropriate conservation policies have been proposed to effectively protect the habitat of different geographical populations of T. maxima. Additionally, spatiotemporal predictions of habitat suitability provide crucial information for developing adaptive management strategies for T. maxima in response to climate change, including designing new protected areas and adjusting the location and extent of existing protected areas based on their geographical distribution.

Forest Orchids under Future Climate Scenarios: Habitat Suitability Modelling to Inform Conservation Strategies

Orchidaceae is one of the largest and most diverse families of flowering plants in the world but also one of the most threatened. Climate change is a global driver of plant distribution and may be the cause of their disappearance in some regions. Forest orchids are associated with specific biotic and abiotic environmental factors, that influence their local presence/absence. Changes in these conditions can lead to significant differences in species distribution. We studied three forest orchids belonging to different genera (Cephalanthera, Epipactis and Limodorum) for their potential current and future distribution in a protected area (PA) of the Northern Apennines. A Habitat Suitability Model was constructed for each species based on presence-only data and the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) was used for the modelling. Climatic, edaphic, topographic, anthropogenic and land cover variables were used as environmental predictors and processed in the model. The aim is to identify the environmental factors that most influence the current species distribution and the areas that are likely to contain habitats suitable for providing refuge for forest orchids and ensuring their survival under future scenarios. This will allow PA authorities to decide whether to invest more resources in conserving areas that are potential refuges for threatened species.

Biochemistry of microwave controlled Heracleum sosnowskyi (Manden.) roots with an ecotoxicological aspect

Sosnowski hogweed is an invasive weed in eastern-middle Europe that is dangerous to human health and the environment. The efficacy of its control using chemical and mechanical methods is limited. Electromagnetic radiation (microwaves) could be an environmentally friendly alternative for controlling this species. This study aims to: (1) Determine the effect of varying microwave treatment (MWT) durations on the control of S. hogweed using a device emitting microwaves at 2.45 GHz, 32.8 kW/m2; (2) Evaluate the impact of MWT on soil by an ecotoxicological bioassays; (3) Analyze biochemical changes occurring in the roots during the process. A field study was performed to assess the efficacy of S. hogweed control using MWT in times from 2.5 to 15 min. The MWT-treated soil was collected immediately after treatment (AT) and tested using bioassays (Phytotoxkit, Ostracodtoxkit, and Microtox). Fourteen days AT, the MWT hogweed roots were dug out, air-dried, and analyzed for the content and composition of essential oil, sugars, and fatty acids. According to the ecotoxicological biotests, the MWT soils were classified as non-toxic or low-toxic. The regeneration of hogweed was observed only in non-treated plants (control). Hogweed MWT for 2.5-15 min did not regenerate up to 14 days AT. The average weight of roots in hogweed MWT for 15.0 min was ca. two times smaller than the control plants. Those roots contained significantly higher amounts of sugars and saturated fatty acids than the control. We did not find a correlation between S. hogweed root essential oil content and composition and MWT time. The main compounds of essential oil were p‑cymene and myristicin. No highly photosensitizing compounds were identified in the tested root oil. We conclude that MWT of S. hogweed could be an environmentally safe and prospective control method, but more studies are needed.

Potential distribution patterns and species richness of avifauna in rapidly urbanizing East China

In recent years, increased species extinction and habitat loss have significantly reduced biodiversity, posing a serious threat to both nature and human survival. Environmental factors strongly influence bird distribution and diversity. The potential distribution patterns and species richness offer a conservation modeling framework for policymakers to assess the effectiveness of natural protected areas (PAs) and optimize their existing ones. Very few such studies have been published that cover a large and complete taxonomic group with fine resolution at regional scale. Here, using birds as a study group, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to analyze the pattern of bird species richness in Jiangsu Province. Using an unparalleled amount of occurrence data, we created species distribution models (SDMs) for 312 bird species to explore emerging diversity patterns at a resolution of 1 km2. The gradient of species richness is steep, decreasing sharply away from water bodies, particularly in the northern part of Jiangsu Province. The migratory status and feeding habits of birds also significantly influence the spatial distribution of avian species richness. This study reveals that the regions with high potential bird species richness are primarily distributed in three areas: the eastern coastal region, the surrounding area of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the surrounding area of Taihu Lake. Compared with species richness hotspots and existing PAs, we found that the majority of hotspots are well-protected. However, only a small portion of the regions, such as coastal areas of Sheyang County in Yancheng City, as well as some regions along the Yangtze River in Nanjing and Zhenjiang, currently have relatively weak protection. Using stacked SDMs, our study reveals effective insights into diversity patterns, directly informing conservation policies and contributing to macroecological research advancements.

Forest herb species with similar European geographic ranges may respond differently to climate change

Many phenological studies have shown that spring geophytes are very sensitive to climate change, responding by shifting flowering and fruiting dates. However, there is a gap in knowledge about climatic drivers of their distributions and range shifts under climate change. Here we aimed to estimate climate niche shifts for four widely distributed and common geophytes of the nemoral zone of Europe (Anemone nemorosa, Anemone ranunculoides, Convallaria majalis and Maianthemum bifolium) and to assess the threat level under various climate change scenarios. Using MaxEnt species distribution models and future climate change scenarios we found that the precipitation of the warmest quarter was the most important factor shaping their ranges. All species studied will experience more loss in the 2061-2080 period than in 2041-2060, and under more pessimistic scenarios. M. bifolium will experience the highest loss, followed by A. nemorosa, A. ranunculoides, and the smallest for C. majalis. A. ranunculoides will gain the most, while M. bifolium will have the smallest potential range expansion. Studied species may respond differently to climate change despite similar current distributions and climatic variables affecting their potential distribution. Even slight differences in climatic niches could reduce the overlap of future ranges compared to present. We expect that due to high dependence on the warmest quarter precipitation, summer droughts in the future may be particularly severe for species that prefer moist soils. The lack of adaptation to long-distance migration and limited availability of appropriate soils may limit their migration and lead to a decline in biodiversity and changes in European forests.

Dynamics of the distribution of invasive alien plants (Asteraceae) in China under climate change

Climate change and biological invasions pose significant threats to the conservation of biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. With the rapid development of international trade and economy, China has become one of the countries most seriously affected by invasive alien plants (IAPs), especially the Asteraceae IAPs. For this end, we selected occurrence data of 31 Asteraceae IAPs and 33 predictor variables to explore the distribution pattern under current climate using MaxEnt model. Based on future climate data, the changes in distribution dynamics of Asteraceae IAPs were predicted under two time periods (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) and three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585). The results indicated that the potential distribution of IAPs was mainly in the southeast of China under current climate. Climatic variables, including precipitation of coldest quarter (BIO19), temperature annual range (BIO07) and annual precipitation (BIO12) were the main factors affecting the potential distribution. Besides, human footprint (HFP), population (POP) and soil moisture (SM) also had a great contribution for shaping the distribution pattern. With climate change, the potential distribution of IAPs would shift to the northwest and expand. It would also accelerate the expansion of most Asteraceae IAPs in China. The results of our study can help to understand the dynamics change of distributions of Asteraceae IAPs under climate change in advance so that early strategies can be developed to reduce the risk and influence of biological invasions.

Impacts of physiological characteristics and human activities on the species distribution models of orchids taking the Hengduan Mountains as a case

The biogeography research of orchids through species distribution models (SDMs), a vital tool in the biogeography field, is critical to understanding the fundamental geographic distribution patterns and identifying conservation priorities. The correspondence between species occurrence and environmental information is crucial to the model's performance. However, ecological preferences unique to different orchid species, such as their life forms, are often overlooked during the modeling process. This oversight can introduce bias and increase model uncertainty. Additionally, human activities, as an important potential predictor, have not been quantified in any orchid SDMs. Taking the Hengduan Mountains as an example, we preprocessed all orchid species' occurrences based on physiological characteristics. Choosing five spatial factors related to human activities to quantify the interference and enter into models as HI factor. Using different modeling methods (GLM, MaxEnt, and RF) and evaluation indices (AUC, TSS, and Kappa), diverse modeling strategies have been constructed in the study. A double-ranking method has been adopted to select the critical orchid distribution regions. The results showed that classification models based on physiological characteristics significantly improved the model's accuracy while adding the HI factor had the same effect but the absence of enough significance. Suitability maps indicated that highly heterogeneous mountainous areas were vital for the distribution of orchids in the Hengduan Mountains. Different distribution patterns and critical regions existed between various orchid life forms geographically - terrestrial orchids were dominant in the mountain, and mycoherterophical orchids were primarily located in the north, more influenced by vegetation and temperature. Critical regions of epiphytic orchids were in the south due to a greater dependence on precipitation and temperature. These studies are informative for understanding the orchids' geographic distribution patterns in the Hengduan Mountains, promoting conservation and providing references for similar research beyond orchids.

Differences in the Suitable Distribution Area between Northern and Southern China Landscape Plants

Climate change, a global biodiversity threat, largely influences the geographical distribution patterns of species. China is abundant in woody landscape plants. However, studies on the differences in the adaptive changes of plants under climate change between northern and southern China are unavailable. Therefore, herein, the MaxEnt model was used to predict changes in the suitable distribution area (SDA) and dominant environmental variables of 29 tree species under two climate change scenarios, the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 126 and 585, based on 29 woody plant species and 20 environmental variables in northern and southern China to assess the differences in the adaptive changes of plants between the two under climate change. Temperature factors dominated the SDA distribution of both northern and southern plants. Southern plants are often dominated by one climatic factor, whereas northern plants are influenced by a combination of climatic factors. Northern plants are under greater pressure from SDA change than southern plants, and their SDA shrinkage tendency is significantly higher. However, no significant difference was observed between northern and southern plants in SDA expansion, mean SDA elevation, and latitudinal change in the SDA mass center. Future climate change will drive northern and southern plants to migrate to higher latitudes rather than to higher elevations. Therefore, future climate change has varying effects on plant SDAs within China. The climate change intensity will drive northern landscape plants to experience greater SDA-change-related pressure than southern landscape plants. Therefore, northern landscape plants must be heavily monitored and protected.

Tracing the future of epidemics: Coincident niche distribution of host animals and disease incidence revealed climate-correlated risk shifts of main zoonotic diseases in China

Climate has critical roles in the origin, pathogenesis and transmission of infectious zoonotic diseases. However, large-scale epidemiologic trend and specific response pattern of zoonotic diseases under future climate scenarios are poorly understood. Here, we projected the distribution shifts of transmission risks of main zoonotic diseases under climate change in China. First, we shaped the global habitat distribution of main host animals for three representative zoonotic diseases (2, 6, and 12 hosts for dengue, hemorrhagic fever, and plague, respectively) with 253,049 occurrence records using maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling. Meanwhile, we predicted the risk distribution of the above three diseases with 197,098 disease incidence records from 2004 to 2017 in China using an integrated Maxent modeling approach. The comparative analysis showed that there exist highly coincident niche distributions between habitat distribution of hosts and risk distribution of diseases, indicating that the integrated Maxent modeling is accurate and effective for predicting the potential risk of zoonotic diseases. On this basis, we further projected the current and future transmission risks of 11 main zoonotic diseases under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) in 2050 and 2070 in China using the above integrated Maxent modeling with 1,001,416 disease incidence records. We found that Central China, Southeast China, and South China are concentrated regions with high transmission risks for main zoonotic diseases. More specifically, zoonotic diseases had diverse shift patterns of transmission risks including increase, decrease, and unstable. Further correlation analysis indicated that these patterns of shifts were highly correlated with global warming and precipitation increase. Our results revealed how specific zoonotic diseases respond in a changing climate, thereby calling for effective administration and prevention strategies. Furthermore, these results will shed light on guiding future epidemiologic prediction of emerging infectious diseases under global climate change.

Priority planting area planning for cash crops under heavy metal pollution and climate change: A case study of Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort

INTRODUCTION

Soil pollution by heavy metals and climate change pose substantial threats to the habitat suitability of cash crops. Discussing the suitability of cash crops in this context is necessary for the conservation and management of species. We developed a comprehensive evaluation system that is universally applicable to all plants stressed by heavy metal pollution.

METHODS

The MaxEnt model was used to simulate the spatial distribution of Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort within the study area (Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Chongqing) based on current and future climate conditions (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios). We established the current Cd pollution status in the study area using kriging interpolation and kernel density. Additionally, the three scenarios were used in prediction models to simulate future Cd pollution conditions based on current Cd pollution data. The current and future priority planting areas for L. chuanxiong were determined by overlay analysis, and two levels of results were obtained.

RESULTS

The results revealed that the current first- and secondary-priority planting areas for L. chuanxiong were 2.06 ×10³ km² and 1.64 ×10⁴ km², respectively. Of these areas, the seven primary and twelve secondary counties for current L. chuanxiong cultivation should be given higher priority; these areas include Meishan, Qionglai, Pujiang, and other regions. Furthermore, all the priority zones based on the current and future scenarios were mainly concentrated on the Chengdu Plain, southeastern Sichuan and northern Chongqing. Future planning results indicated that Renshou, Pingwu, Meishan, Qionglai, Pengshan, and other regions are very important for L. chuanxiong planting, and a pessimistic scenario will negatively impact this potential planting. The spatial dynamics of priority areas in 2050 and 2070 clearly fluctuated under different prediction scenarios and were mainly distributed in northern Sichuan and western Chongqing.

DISCUSSION

Given these results, taking reasonable measures to replan and manage these areas is necessary. This study provides. not only a useful reference for the protection and cultivation of L. chuanxiong, but also a framework for analyzing other cash crops.

The effects of intraspecific variation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change

As global climate change is altering the distribution range of macroalgae across the globe, it is critical to assess its impact on species range shifts to inform the biodiversity conservation of macroalgae. Latitude/environmental gradients could cause intraspecific variability, which may result in distinct responses to climate change. It remains unclear whether geographical variation occurs in the response of species' populations to climate change. We tested this assumption using the brown alga Sargassum thunbergii, a habitat-forming macroalgae encompassing multiple divergent lineages along the Northwest Pacific. Previous studies revealed a distinct lineage of S. thunbergii in rear-edge populations. Given the phylogeographic structure and temperature gradients, we divided these populations into the southern and northern groups. We assessed the physiological responses of the two groups to temperature changes and estimated their niche differences using n-dimensional hypervolumes. A higher photosynthetic rate and antioxidative abilities were detected in the southern group of S. thunbergii than in the northern group. In addition, significant niche differentiation was detected between the two groups, suggesting the possibility for local adaptation. Given these results, we inferred that the southern group (rear-edge populations) may be more resilient to climate change. To examine climate-driven range shifts of S. thunbergii, we constructed species- and lineage-level species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions of both levels showed considerable distribution contracts along the Chinese coasts in the future. For the southern group, the lineage-level model predicted less habitat loss than the species-level model. Our results highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation in climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal species.

Potential European Geographical Distribution of Gnathotrichus materiarius (Fitch, 1858) (Coleoptera: Scolytinae) under Current and Future Climate Conditions

Gnathotrichus materiarius (Fitch, 1858) is an alien ambrosia beetle from North America, that has been spreading across Europe since the 1930s. The species infests coniferous trees, excavating galleries in sapwood. However, to date very few studies have predicted changes in ambrosia beetle habitat suitability under changing climate conditions. To fill that gap in the current knowledge, we used the MaxEnt algorithm to estimate areas potentially suitable for this species in Europe, both under current climate conditions and those forecasted for the years 2050 and 2070. Our analyses showed areas where the species has not been reported, though the climatic conditions are suitable. Models for the forecasted conditions predicted an increase in suitable habitats. Due to the wide range of host trees, the species is likely to spread through the Balkans, the Black Sea and Caucasus region, Baltic countries, the Scandinavian Peninsula, and Ukraine. As a technical pest of coniferous sapwood, it can cause financial losses due to deterioration in quality of timber harvested in such regions. Our results will be helpful for the development of a climate-change-integrated management strategy to mitigate potential adverse effects.