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Wen X, Fang G, Chai S, He C, Sun S, Zhao G, Lin X. Can ecological niche models be used to accurately predict the distribution of invasive insects? A case study of Hyphantria cunea in China. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11159. [PMID: 38487749 PMCID: PMC10940052 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2023] [Revised: 01/19/2024] [Accepted: 03/01/2024] [Indexed: 03/17/2024] Open
Abstract
In recent decades, ecological niche models (ENMs) have been widely used to predict suitable habitats for species. However, for invasive organisms, the prediction accuracy is unclear. In this study, we employed the most widely used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and ensemble model (EM) Biomod2 and verified the practical effectiveness of the ENM in predicting the distribution areas of invasive insects based on the true occurrence of Hyphantria cunea in China. The results showed that when only limited data of invasive areas were used, the two ENMs could not effectively predict the distribution of suitable habitats of H. cunea, although the use of global data can greatly improve the prediction accuracy of ENMs. When analyzing the same data, Biomod2's prediction accuracy was significantly better than that of MaxEnt. For long-term predictions, the area of suitable habitat predicted by the ENMs was much greater than the occurrence area; for short-term predictions, the accuracy of the predicted area was significantly improved. Under the current conditions, the area of suitable habitat for H. cunea in China is 118 × 104 km2, of which 59.32% is moderately or highly suitable habitat. Future climate change could significantly increase the suitable habitat area of H. cunea in China, and the predicted area of suitable habitats in all climate scenarios exceeded 355 × 104 km2, accounting for 36.98% of the total land area in China. This study demonstrates the use of ENMs to study invasive insects and provides a reference for the management of H. cunea in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuanye Wen
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and ControlNational Forestry and Grassland AdministrationShenyangChina
| | - Guofei Fang
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and ControlNational Forestry and Grassland AdministrationShenyangChina
| | - Shouquan Chai
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and ControlNational Forestry and Grassland AdministrationShenyangChina
| | - Chuanjie He
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and ControlNational Forestry and Grassland AdministrationShenyangChina
| | - Shouhui Sun
- College of ForestryShenyang Agricultural UniversityShenyangChina
| | - Guanghua Zhao
- College of Life SciencesShanxi Normal UniversityTaiyuanChina
| | - Xiao Lin
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and ControlNational Forestry and Grassland AdministrationShenyangChina
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He P, Li Y, Huo T, Meng F, Peng C, Bai M. Priority planting area planning for cash crops under heavy metal pollution and climate change: A case study of Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort. Front Plant Sci 2023; 14:1080881. [PMID: 36818883 PMCID: PMC9928953 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2023.1080881] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2022] [Accepted: 01/05/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Soil pollution by heavy metals and climate change pose substantial threats to the habitat suitability of cash crops. Discussing the suitability of cash crops in this context is necessary for the conservation and management of species. We developed a comprehensive evaluation system that is universally applicable to all plants stressed by heavy metal pollution. METHODS The MaxEnt model was used to simulate the spatial distribution of Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort within the study area (Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Chongqing) based on current and future climate conditions (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios). We established the current Cd pollution status in the study area using kriging interpolation and kernel density. Additionally, the three scenarios were used in prediction models to simulate future Cd pollution conditions based on current Cd pollution data. The current and future priority planting areas for L. chuanxiong were determined by overlay analysis, and two levels of results were obtained. RESULTS The results revealed that the current first- and secondary-priority planting areas for L. chuanxiong were 2.06 ×103 km2 and 1.64 ×104 km2, respectively. Of these areas, the seven primary and twelve secondary counties for current L. chuanxiong cultivation should be given higher priority; these areas include Meishan, Qionglai, Pujiang, and other regions. Furthermore, all the priority zones based on the current and future scenarios were mainly concentrated on the Chengdu Plain, southeastern Sichuan and northern Chongqing. Future planning results indicated that Renshou, Pingwu, Meishan, Qionglai, Pengshan, and other regions are very important for L. chuanxiong planting, and a pessimistic scenario will negatively impact this potential planting. The spatial dynamics of priority areas in 2050 and 2070 clearly fluctuated under different prediction scenarios and were mainly distributed in northern Sichuan and western Chongqing. DISCUSSION Given these results, taking reasonable measures to replan and manage these areas is necessary. This study provides. not only a useful reference for the protection and cultivation of L. chuanxiong, but also a framework for analyzing other cash crops.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ping He
- Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Yunfeng Li
- Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
- Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Research and Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengde Medical University, Chengde, China
| | - Tongtong Huo
- Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Fanyun Meng
- Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Cheng Peng
- School of Pharmacy, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China
| | - Ming Bai
- Key Laboratory of Zoological Systematics and Evolution, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
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Ding W, Li H, Wen J. Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae). Insects 2022; 13:insects13010059. [PMID: 35055902 PMCID: PMC8778446 DOI: 10.3390/insects13010059] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2021] [Revised: 12/27/2021] [Accepted: 12/27/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Among the impacts of ongoing and projected climate change are shifts in the distribution and severity of insect pests. Projecting those impacts is necessary to ensure effective pest management in the future. Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) is an important polyphagous forest pest in China where causes huge economic and ecological losses in 20 provinces. Under historical climatic conditions, the suitable areas for A. cinerarius in China are mainly in the northern temperate zone (30-50° N) and the southern temperate zone (20-60° S). Using the CLIMEX model, the potential distribution of the pest in China and globally, both historically and under climate change, were estimated. Suitable habitats for A. cinerarius occur in parts of all continents. With climate change, its potential distribution extends northward in China and generally elsewhere in the northern hemisphere, although effects vary depending on latitude. In other areas of the world, some habitats become less suitable for the species. Based on the simulated growth index in CLIMEX, the onset of A. cinerarius would be earlier under climate change in some of its potential range, including Spain and Korea. Measures should anticipate the need for prevention and control of A. cinerarius in its potential extended range in China and globally.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weicheng Ding
- College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China; (W.D.); (H.L.)
- Beijing Key Laboratory for Forest Pest Control, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
| | - Hongyu Li
- College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China; (W.D.); (H.L.)
- Beijing Key Laboratory for Forest Pest Control, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
| | - Junbao Wen
- College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China; (W.D.); (H.L.)
- Beijing Key Laboratory for Forest Pest Control, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
- Correspondence:
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Warmuth VM, Burgess MD, Laaksonen T, Manica A, Mägi M, Nord A, Primmer CR, Sætre GP, Winkel W, Ellegren H. Major population splits coincide with episodes of rapid climate change in a forest-dependent bird. Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20211066. [PMID: 34727712 PMCID: PMC8564624 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2021.1066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2021] [Accepted: 10/07/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change influences population demography by altering patterns of gene flow and reproductive isolation. Direct mutation rates offer the possibility for accurate dating on the within-species level but are currently only available for a handful of vertebrate species. Here, we use the first directly estimated mutation rate in birds to study the evolutionary history of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca). Using a combination of demographic inference and species distribution modelling, we show that all major population splits in this forest-dependent system occurred during periods of increased climate instability and rapid global temperature change. We show that the divergent Spanish subspecies originated during the Eemian-Weichselian transition 115-104 thousand years ago (kya), and not during the last glacial maximum (26.5-19 kya), as previously suggested. The magnitude and rates of climate change during the glacial-interglacial transitions that preceded population splits in pied flycatchers were similar to, or exceeded, those predicted to occur in the course of the current, human-induced climate crisis. As such, our results provide a timely reminder of the strong impact that episodes of climate instability and rapid temperature changes can have on species' evolutionary trajectories, with important implications for the natural world in the Anthropocene.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vera M. Warmuth
- Department of Evolutionary Biology, Biozentrum Martinsried, Ludwig-Maximilians Universität München, Planegg-Martinsried, Germany
- Department of Evolutionary Biology, Evolutionary Biology Centre (EBC), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Malcolm D. Burgess
- Centre for Animal Behaviour, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Sandy, UK
| | - Toni Laaksonen
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
| | - Andrea Manica
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Marko Mägi
- Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Andreas Nord
- Department of Biology, Section for Evolutionary Ecology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Craig R. Primmer
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Program, University of Helsinki, Finland
- Institute of Biotechnology, Helsinki Institute of Life Sciences (HiLIFE), University of Helsinki, Finland
| | - Glenn-Peter Sætre
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Wolfgang Winkel
- Institute of Avian Research, ‘Vogelwarte Helgoland’, Wilhelmshaven, Germany
| | - Hans Ellegren
- Department of Evolutionary Biology, Evolutionary Biology Centre (EBC), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
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Saxton NA, Paxman EM, Dean AM, Jensen CR, Powell GS, Bybee SM. Factors Influencing the Distribution of Endemic Damselflies in Vanuatu. Insects 2021; 12:670. [PMID: 34442236 DOI: 10.3390/insects12080670] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2021] [Revised: 06/24/2021] [Accepted: 07/07/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Simple Summary Predicting the distribution of endemic insects is vital to continual study and conservation efforts. Here we used ecological niche models and pH data to determine which environmental factors may be influencing the distribution of a group of damselflies in Vanuatu. We tested the utility of niche models in this context and found pH to be a strong predictor for this genus. Abstract Vanuatubasis Ober and Staniczek is a genus of damselfly endemic to Vanuatu. Little is known about the distribution and general natural history of the genus. We present the results of 14 weeks of fieldwork in Vanuatu to provide a better understanding of the biology of this genus. Specifically, we tested ecological niche models to predict the presence of Vanuatubasis throughout the region and explored how water pH may play a role in their distribution and ecology. The results of this fieldwork refined our model and further predicted the presence of this genus on additional islands. We also found stream pH as a strong predictor for the presence of Vanuatubasis, with their presence in alkaline streams significantly higher (p < 0.001). The mean pH for those streams where the genus was collected was 8.44 (n = 53).
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Finch EA, Beale T, Chellappan M, Goergen G, Gadratagi BG, Khan MAM, Rehman A, Rwomushana I, Sarma AK, Wyckhuys KAG, Kriticos DJ. The potential global distribution of the papaya mealybug, Paracoccus marginatus, a polyphagous pest. Pest Manag Sci 2021; 77:1361-1370. [PMID: 33089608 PMCID: PMC7894313 DOI: 10.1002/ps.6151] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2020] [Revised: 09/30/2020] [Accepted: 10/21/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The papaya mealybug, Paracoccus marginatus, is a highly polyphagous invasive pest that affects more than 200 plants, many of which are of economic importance. We modelled the potential distribution of P. marginatus using CLIMEX, a process-oriented, climate-based niche model. We combined this model with spatial data on irrigation and cropping patterns to increase the real-world applicability of the model. RESULTS The resulting model agreed with known distribution points for this pest and with broad areas where P. marginatus has been reported, but for which no GPS data were available. Our model highlights the potential expansion of P. marginatus into novel areas in Central and East Africa, as well as further expansion in Central America and Asia, as these areas are highly climatically suitable, and have large expanses of suitable crop hosts. It also highlights areas, such as the central and eastern states of the USA as well as the western provinces of China, that are suitable for seasonal invasions of P. marginatus. CONCLUSION Our results offer refined resolution on areas with high potential for invasion by P. marginatus. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Georg Goergen
- International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA)CotonouBenin
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Kris AG Wyckhuys
- Chrysalis ConsultingHanoiVietnam
- Fujian Agriculture and Forestry UniversityFuzhouChina
- University of QueenslandBrisbaneQueenslandAustralia
| | - Darren J Kriticos
- University of QueenslandBrisbaneQueenslandAustralia
- CSIROCanberraAustralian Capital TerritoryAustralia
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Mod HK, Scherrer D, Di Cola V, Broennimann O, Blandenier Q, Breiner FT, Buri A, Goudet J, Guex N, Lara E, Mitchell EAD, Niculita‐Hirzel H, Pagni M, Pellissier L, Pinto‐Figueroa E, Sanders IR, Schmidt BR, Seppey CVW, Singer D, Ursenbacher S, Yashiro E, van der Meer JR, Guisan A. Greater topoclimatic control of above- versus below-ground communities. Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:6715-6728. [PMID: 32866994 PMCID: PMC7756268 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15330] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2020] [Revised: 06/04/2020] [Accepted: 08/04/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Assessing the degree to which climate explains the spatial distributions of different taxonomic and functional groups is essential for anticipating the effects of climate change on ecosystems. Most effort so far has focused on above-ground organisms, which offer only a partial view on the response of biodiversity to environmental gradients. Here including both above- and below-ground organisms, we quantified the degree of topoclimatic control on the occurrence patterns of >1,500 taxa and phylotypes along a c. 3,000 m elevation gradient, by fitting species distribution models. Higher model performances for animals and plants than for soil microbes (fungi, bacteria and protists) suggest that the direct influence of topoclimate is stronger on above-ground species than on below-ground microorganisms. Accordingly, direct climate change effects are predicted to be stronger for above-ground than for below-ground taxa, whereas factors expressing local soil microclimate and geochemistry are likely more important to explain and forecast the occurrence patterns of soil microbiota. Detailed mapping and future scenarios of soil microclimate and microhabitats, together with comparative studies of interacting and ecologically dependent above- and below-ground biota, are thus needed to understand and realistically forecast the future distribution of ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heidi K. Mod
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Department of Geosciences and GeographyUniversity of HelsinkiHelsinkiFinland
| | - Daniel Scherrer
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSLBirmensdorfSwitzerland
| | - Valeria Di Cola
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Olivier Broennimann
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Institute of Earth Surface DynamicsUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Quentin Blandenier
- Laboratory of Soil BiodiversityInstitute of BiologyUniversity of NeuchâtelNeuchâtelSwitzerland
- Real Jardín BotánicoCSICMadridSpain
| | - Frank T. Breiner
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Aline Buri
- Institute of Earth Surface DynamicsUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Jérôme Goudet
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Swiss Institute of BioinformaticsUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Nicolas Guex
- Bioinformatics Competence CenterUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Vital‐IT GroupSwiss Institute of BioinformaticsLausanneSwitzerland
| | | | - Edward A. D. Mitchell
- Laboratory of Soil BiodiversityInstitute of BiologyUniversity of NeuchâtelNeuchâtelSwitzerland
- Jardin Botanique de NeuchâtelNeuchâtelSwitzerland
| | - Hélène Niculita‐Hirzel
- Department of Occupational Health and EnvironmentCenter for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté)University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Marco Pagni
- Vital‐IT GroupSwiss Institute of BioinformaticsLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Loïc Pellissier
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSLBirmensdorfSwitzerland
- Landscape EcologyDepartment of Environmental Systems ScienceETH ZürichZürichSwitzerland
| | | | - Ian R. Sanders
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Benedikt R. Schmidt
- Info Fauna KarchNeuchâtelSwitzerland
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental StudiesUniversity of ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | | | - David Singer
- Laboratory of Soil BiodiversityInstitute of BiologyUniversity of NeuchâtelNeuchâtelSwitzerland
- Department of ZoologyInstitute of BiosciencesUniversity of São PauloSão PauloBrazil
| | - Sylvain Ursenbacher
- Info Fauna KarchNeuchâtelSwitzerland
- Department of Environmental SciencesSection of Conservation BiologyUniversity of BaselBaselSwitzerland
| | - Erika Yashiro
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Department of Fundamental MicrobiologyUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Jan R. van der Meer
- Department of Fundamental MicrobiologyUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Antoine Guisan
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Institute of Earth Surface DynamicsUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
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Armitage DW, Jones SE. Coexistence barriers confine the poleward range of a globally distributed plant. Ecol Lett 2020; 23:1838-1848. [PMID: 33022085 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13612] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2020] [Revised: 05/17/2020] [Accepted: 08/24/2020] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
In the study of factors shaping species' poleward range boundaries, climatic constraints are often assigned greater importance than biotic interactions such as competition. However, theory suggests competition can truncate a species' fundamental niche in harsh environments. We test this by challenging a mechanistic niche model - containing explicit competition terms - to predict the poleward range boundaries of two globally distributed, ecologically similar aquatic plant species. Mechanistic competition models accurately predicted the northern range limits of our study species, outperforming competition-free mechanistic models and matching the predictive ability of statistical niche models fit to occurrence records. Using the framework of modern coexistence theory, we found that relative nonlinearity in competitors' responses to temperature fluctuations maintains their coexistence boundary, highlighting the importance of this fluctuation-dependent mechanism. Our results support a more nuanced, interactive role of climate and competition in determining range boundaries, and illustrate a practical, process-based approach to understanding the determinants of range limits.
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Affiliation(s)
- David W Armitage
- Department of BioSciences, Rice University, Houston, TX, 77005, USA
| | - Stuart E Jones
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, 46556, USA
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Kling MM, Auer SL, Comer PJ, Ackerly DD, Hamilton H. Multiple axes of ecological vulnerability to climate change. Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:2798-2813. [PMID: 31960540 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2019] [Accepted: 12/17/2019] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Observed ecological responses to climate change are highly individualistic across species and locations, and understanding the drivers of this variability is essential for management and conservation efforts. While it is clear that differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity all contribute to heterogeneity in climate change vulnerability, predicting these features at macroecological scales remains a critical challenge. We explore multiple drivers of heterogeneous vulnerability across the distributions of 96 vegetation types of the ecologically diverse western US, using data on observed climate trends from 1948 to 2014 to highlight emerging patterns of change. We ask three novel questions about factors potentially shaping vulnerability across the region: (a) How does sensitivity to different climate variables vary geographically and across vegetation classes? (b) How do multivariate climate exposure patterns interact with these sensitivities to shape vulnerability patterns? (c) How different are these vulnerability patterns according to three widely implemented vulnerability paradigms-niche novelty (decline in modeled suitability), temporal novelty (standardized anomaly), and spatial novelty (inbound climate velocity)-each of which uses a distinct frame of reference to quantify climate departure? We propose that considering these three novelty paradigms in combination could help improve our understanding and prediction of heterogeneous climate change responses, and we discuss the distinct climate adaptation strategies connected with different combinations of high and low novelty across the three metrics. Our results reveal a diverse mosaic of climate change vulnerability signatures across the region's plant communities. Each of the above factors contributes strongly to this heterogeneity: climate variable sensitivity exhibits clear patterns across vegetation types, multivariate climate change data reveal highly diverse exposure signatures across locations, and the three novelty paradigms diverge widely in their climate change vulnerability predictions. Together, these results shed light on potential drivers of individualistic climate change responses and may help to inform effective management strategies.
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Dallas TA, Laine AL, Ovaskainen O. Detecting parasite associations within multi-species host and parasite communities. Proc Biol Sci 2019; 286:20191109. [PMID: 31575371 PMCID: PMC6790755 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2019.1109] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2019] [Accepted: 09/11/2019] [Indexed: 01/23/2023] Open
Abstract
Understanding the role of biotic interactions in shaping natural communities is a long-standing challenge in ecology. It is particularly pertinent to parasite communities sharing the same host communities and individuals, as the interactions among parasites-both competition and facilitation-may have far-reaching implications for parasite transmission and evolution. Aggregated parasite burdens may suggest that infected host individuals are either more prone to infection, or that infection by a parasite species facilitates another, leading to a positive parasite-parasite interaction. However, parasite species may also compete for host resources, leading to the prediction that parasite-parasite associations would be generally negative, especially when parasite species infect the same host tissue, competing for both resources and space. We examine the presence and strength of parasite associations using hierarchical joint species distribution models fitted to data on resident parasite communities sampled on over 1300 small mammal individuals across 22 species and their resident parasite communities. On average, we detected more positive associations between infecting parasite species than negative, with the most negative associations occurring when two parasite species infected the same host tissue, suggesting that parasite species associations may be quantifiable from observational data. Overall, our findings suggest that parasite community prediction at the level of the individual host is possible, and that parasite species associations may be detectable in complex multi-species communities, generating many hypotheses concerning the effect of host community changes on parasite community composition, parasite competition within infected hosts, and the drivers of parasite community assembly and structure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tad A. Dallas
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, Helsinki 00014, Finland
- Department of Biological Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA
| | - Anna-Liisa Laine
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, Helsinki 00014, Finland
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zürich, Zürich 8057, Switzerland
| | - Otso Ovaskainen
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, Helsinki 00014, Finland
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway
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Gorris ME, Treseder KK, Zender CS, Randerson JT. Expansion of Coccidioidomycosis Endemic Regions in the United States in Response to Climate Change. Geohealth 2019; 3:308-327. [PMID: 32159021 PMCID: PMC7007157 DOI: 10.1029/2019gh000209] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/23/2019] [Revised: 08/16/2019] [Accepted: 08/20/2019] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever) is a fungal disease endemic to the southwestern United States. Across this region, temperature and precipitation influence the extent of the endemic region and number of Valley fever cases. Climate projections for the western United States indicate that temperatures will increase and precipitation patterns will shift, which may alter disease dynamics. We estimated the area potentially endemic to Valley fever using a climate niche model derived from contemporary climate and disease incidence data. We then used our model with projections of climate from Earth system models to assess how endemic areas will change during the 21st century. By 2100 in a high warming scenario, our model predicts that the area of climate-limited endemicity will more than double, the number of affected states will increase from 12 to 17, and the number of Valley fever cases will increase by 50%. The Valley fever endemic region will expand north into dry western states, including Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. Precipitation will limit the disease from spreading into states farther east and along the central and northern Pacific coast. This is the first quantitative estimate of how climate change may influence Valley fever in the United States. Our predictive model of Valley fever endemicity may provide guidance to public health officials to establish disease surveillance programs and design mitigation efforts to limit the impacts of this disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Morgan E. Gorris
- Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineCAUSA
| | - Kathleen K. Treseder
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary BiologyUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineCAUSA
| | - Charles S. Zender
- Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineCAUSA
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12
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Wu A, Deng X, He H, Ren X, Jing Y, Xiang W, Ouyang S, Yan W, Fang X. Responses of species abundance distribution patterns to spatial scaling in subtropical secondary forests. Ecol Evol 2019; 9:5338-5347. [PMID: 31110683 PMCID: PMC6509376 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.5122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2018] [Revised: 03/05/2019] [Accepted: 03/08/2019] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
To quantify and assess the processes underlying community assembly and driving tree species abundance distributions(SADs) with spatial scale variation in two typical subtropical secondary forests in Dashanchong state-owned forest farm, two 1-ha permanent study plots (100-m × 100-m) were established. We selected four diversity indices including species richness, Shannon-Wiener, Simpson and Pielou, and relative importance values to quantify community assembly and biodiversity. Empirical cumulative distribution and species accumulation curves were utilized to describe the SADs of two forests communities trees. Three types of models, including statistic model (lognormal and logseries model), niche model (broken-stick, niche preemption, and Zipf-Mandelbrodt model), and neutral theory model, were estimated by the fitted SADs. Simulation effects were tested by Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Results found that the Fagaceae and Anacardiaceae families were their respective dominance family in the evergreen broad-leaved and deciduous mixed communities. According to original data and random sampling predictions, the SADs were hump-shaped for intermediate abundance classes, peaking between 8 and 32 in the evergreen broad-leaved community, but this maximum increased with size of total sampled area size in the deciduous mixed community. All niche models could only explain SADs patterns at smaller spatial scales. However, both the neutral theory and purely statistical models were suitable for explaining the SADs for secondary forest communities when the sampling plot exceeded 40 m. The results showed the SADs indicated a clear directional trend toward convergence and similar predominating ecological processes in two typical subtropical secondary forests. The neutral process gradually replaced the niche process in importance and become the main mechanism for determining SADs of forest trees as the sampling scale expanded. Thus, we can preliminarily conclude that neutral processes had a major effect on biodiversity patterns in these two subtropical secondary forests but exclude possible contributions of other processes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anchi Wu
- Faculty of Life Science and TechnologyCentral South University of Forestry and TechnologyChangshaChina
- National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry&Ecology in South ChinaChangshaChina
- Huitong National Station for Scientific Observation and Research of Chinese Fir Plantation Ecosystems in Hunan ProvinceHuitongChina
| | - Xiangwen Deng
- Faculty of Life Science and TechnologyCentral South University of Forestry and TechnologyChangshaChina
- National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry&Ecology in South ChinaChangshaChina
- Huitong National Station for Scientific Observation and Research of Chinese Fir Plantation Ecosystems in Hunan ProvinceHuitongChina
| | - Honglin He
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institution of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of ScienceBeijingChina
- Graduate University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
| | - Xiaoli Ren
- Graduate University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
| | - Yiran Jing
- Chinese Research Academy of Environmental SciencesBeijingChina
| | - Wenhua Xiang
- Faculty of Life Science and TechnologyCentral South University of Forestry and TechnologyChangshaChina
- National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry&Ecology in South ChinaChangshaChina
- Huitong National Station for Scientific Observation and Research of Chinese Fir Plantation Ecosystems in Hunan ProvinceHuitongChina
| | - Shuai Ouyang
- Faculty of Life Science and TechnologyCentral South University of Forestry and TechnologyChangshaChina
- National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry&Ecology in South ChinaChangshaChina
- Huitong National Station for Scientific Observation and Research of Chinese Fir Plantation Ecosystems in Hunan ProvinceHuitongChina
| | - Wende Yan
- Faculty of Life Science and TechnologyCentral South University of Forestry and TechnologyChangshaChina
- National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry&Ecology in South ChinaChangshaChina
- Huitong National Station for Scientific Observation and Research of Chinese Fir Plantation Ecosystems in Hunan ProvinceHuitongChina
| | - Xi Fang
- Faculty of Life Science and TechnologyCentral South University of Forestry and TechnologyChangshaChina
- National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry&Ecology in South ChinaChangshaChina
- Huitong National Station for Scientific Observation and Research of Chinese Fir Plantation Ecosystems in Hunan ProvinceHuitongChina
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Bland S, Valdovinos FS, Hutchings JA, Kuparinen A. The role of fish life histories in allometrically scaled food-web dynamics. Ecol Evol 2019; 9:3651-3660. [PMID: 30988900 PMCID: PMC6434563 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.4996] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2018] [Revised: 01/23/2019] [Accepted: 01/28/2019] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Body size determines key ecological and evolutionary processes of organisms. Therefore, organisms undergo extensive shifts in resources, competitors, and predators as they grow in body size. While empirical and theoretical evidence show that these size-dependent ontogenetic shifts vastly influence the structure and dynamics of populations, theory on how those ontogenetic shifts affect the structure and dynamics of ecological networks is still virtually absent.Here, we expand the Allometric Trophic Network (ATN) theory in the context of aquatic food webs to incorporate size-structure in the population dynamics of fish species. We do this by modifying a food web generating algorithm, the niche model, to produce food webs where different fish life-history stages are described as separate nodes which are connected through growth and reproduction. Then, we apply a bioenergetic model that uses the food webs and the body sizes generated by our niche model to evaluate the effect of incorporating life-history structure into food web dynamics.We show that the larger the body size of a fish species respective to the body size of its preys, the higher the biomass attained by the fish species and the greater the ecosystem stability. We also find that the larger the asymptotic body size attained by fish species the larger the total ecosystem biomass, a result that holds true for both the largest fish in the ecosystem and each fish species in the ecosystem.This work provides an expanded ATN theory that generates food webs with life-history structure for chosen species. Our work offers a systematic approach for disentangling the effects of increasing life-history complexity in food-web models.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Fernanda S. Valdovinos
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary BiologyUniversity of MichiganMichigan
- Center for the Study of Complex SystemsUniversity of MichiganMichigan
| | - Jeffrey A. Hutchings
- Department of BiologyDalhousie UniversityHalifaxNSCanada
- Institute of Marine ResearchFlødevigen Marine Research StationHisNorway
| | - Anna Kuparinen
- Department of Biological and Environmental ScienceUniversity of JyväskyläJyväskyläFinland
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14
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Donoso I, Schleuning M, García D, Fründ J. Defaunation effects on plant recruitment depend on size matching and size trade-offs in seed-dispersal networks. Proc Biol Sci 2017; 284:20162664. [PMID: 28566481 PMCID: PMC5454253 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2016.2664] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2016] [Accepted: 05/02/2017] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Defaunation by humans causes a loss of large animals in many ecosystems globally. Recent work has emphasized the consequences of downsizing in animal communities for ecosystem functioning. However, no study so far has integrated network theory and life-history trade-offs to mechanistically evaluate the functional consequences of defaunation in plant-animal networks. Here, we simulated an avian seed-dispersal network and its derived ecosystem function seedling recruitment to assess the relative importance of different size-related mechanisms. Specifically, we considered size matching (between bird size and seed size) and size trade-offs, which are driven by differences in plant or animal species abundance (negative size-quantity relationship) as well as in recruitment probability and disperser quality (positive size-quality relationship). Defaunation led to impoverished seedling communities in terms of diversity and seed size, but only if models accounted for size matching. In addition, size trade-off in plants, in concert with size matching, provoked rapid decays in seedling abundance in response to defaunation. These results underscore a disproportional importance of large animals for ecosystem functions. Downsizing in ecological networks will have severe consequences for ecosystem functioning, especially in interaction networks that are structured by size matching between plants and animals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isabel Donoso
- Departamento de Biología de Organismos y Sistemas and Unidad Mixta de Investigación en Biodiversidad (UMIB, CSIC-Uo-PA), University of Oviedo, Valentín Andrés Álvarez s/n, 33071 Oviedo, Spain
| | - Matthias Schleuning
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt (Main), Germany
| | - Daniel García
- Departamento de Biología de Organismos y Sistemas and Unidad Mixta de Investigación en Biodiversidad (UMIB, CSIC-Uo-PA), University of Oviedo, Valentín Andrés Álvarez s/n, 33071 Oviedo, Spain
| | - Jochen Fründ
- Biometry and Environmental System Analysis, University of Freiburg, Tennenbacher Strasse 4, 79106 Freiburg, Germany
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Case MJ, Lawler JJ. Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America. Glob Chang Biol 2017; 23:2005-2015. [PMID: 27859937 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13570] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2016] [Revised: 10/29/2016] [Accepted: 11/02/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate-driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species-specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate-driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over-predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael J Case
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Box 352100, Seattle, WA, 98195-2100, USA
| | - Joshua J Lawler
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Box 352100, Seattle, WA, 98195-2100, USA
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16
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Gallien L, Mazel F, Lavergne S, Renaud J, Douzet R, Thuiller W. Contrasting the effects of environment, dispersal and biotic interactions to explain the distribution of invasive plants in alpine communities. Biol Invasions 2015; 17:1407-1423. [PMID: 26290653 PMCID: PMC4538782 DOI: 10.1007/s10530-014-0803-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Despite considerable efforts devoted to investigate the community assembly processes driving plant invasions, few general conclusions have been drawn so far. Three main processes, generally acting as successive filters, are thought to be of prime importance. The invader has to disperse (1st filter) into a suitable environment (2nd filter) and succeed in establishing in recipient communities through competitive interactions (3rd filter) using two strategies: competition avoidance by the use of different resources (resource opportunity), or competitive exclusion of native species. Surprisingly, despite the general consensus on the importance of investigating these three processes and their interplay, they are usually studied independently. Here we aim to analyse these three filters together, by including them all: abiotic environment, dispersal and biotic interactions, into models of invasive species distributions. We first propose a suite of indices (based on species functional dissimilarities) supposed to reflect the two competitive strategies (resource opportunity and competition exclusion). Then, we use a set of generalised linear models to explain the distribution of seven herbaceous invaders in natural communities (using a large vegetation database for the French Alps containing 5,000 community-plots). Finally, we measure the relative importance of competitive interaction indices, identify the type of coexistence mechanism involved and how this varies along environmental gradients. Adding competition indices significantly improved model's performance, but neither resource opportunity nor competitive exclusion were common strategies among the seven species. Overall, we show that combining environmental, dispersal and biotic information to model invasions has excellent potential for improving our understanding of invader success.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laure Gallien
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France ; CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France ; Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Florent Mazel
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France ; CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Sébastien Lavergne
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France ; CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Julien Renaud
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France ; CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Rolland Douzet
- Station Alpine Joseph Fourier, CNRS, Univ. Grenoble, F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Wilfried Thuiller
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France ; CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France
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17
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Wood CC, Bickham JW, John Nelson R, Foote CJ, Patton JC. Recurrent evolution of life history ecotypes in sockeye salmon: implications for conservation and future evolution. Evol Appl 2015; 1:207-21. [PMID: 25567627 PMCID: PMC3352436 DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-4571.2008.00028.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2007] [Accepted: 01/28/2008] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
We examine the evolutionary history and speculate about the evolutionary future of three basic life history ecotypes that contribute to the biocomplexity of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka). The ‘recurrent evolution’ (RE) hypothesis claims that the sea/river ecotype is ancestral, a ‘straying’ form with poorly differentiated (meta)population structure, and that highly structured populations of lake-type sockeye and kokanee have evolved repeatedly in parallel adaptive radiations between recurrent glaciations of the Pleistocene Epoch. Basic premises of this hypothesis are consistent with new, independent evidence from recent surveys of genetic variation in mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA: (1) sockeye salmon are most closely related to pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon with sea-type life histories; (2) the sockeye life history ecotypes exist as polyphyletic lineages within large drainages and geographic regions; (3) the sea/river ecotype exhibits less genetic differentiation among populations than the lake or kokanee ecotypes both within and among drainages; and (4) genetic diversity is typically higher in the sea/river ecotype than in the lake and kokanee ecotypes. Anthropogenic modification of estuarine habitat and intensive coastal fisheries have likely reduced and fragmented historic metapopulations of the sea/river ecotype, particularly in southern areas. In contrast, the kokanee ecotype appears to be favoured by marine fisheries and predicted changes in climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris C Wood
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada V9T 6N7
| | - John W Bickham
- Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University 195 Marstellar Street, West Lafayette, Indiana, 47907, USA
| | - R John Nelson
- University of Victoria, Department of Biology-Centre for Biomedical Research Post Office Box 3020, Victoria, British Columbia Canada V8W 3N5
| | - Chris J Foote
- Malaspinia University-College 900 5th Street, Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada V9R 5S5
| | - John C Patton
- Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University 195 Marstellar Street, West Lafayette, Indiana, 47907, USA
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18
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Crase B, Liedloff A, Vesk PA, Fukuda Y, Wintle BA. Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate-mediated range shifts. Glob Chang Biol 2014; 20:2566-2579. [PMID: 24845950 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12598] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2013] [Revised: 03/13/2014] [Accepted: 03/18/2014] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad-scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation in model residuals is known to result in biased parameter estimates and the inflation of type I errors, the influence of unmodeled SA on species' range forecasts is poorly understood. Here we quantify how accounting for SA in SDMs influences the magnitude of range shift forecasts produced by SDMs for multiple climate change scenarios. SDMs were fitted to simulated data with a known autocorrelation structure, and to field observations of three mangrove communities from northern Australia displaying strong spatial autocorrelation. Three modeling approaches were implemented: environment-only models (most frequently applied in species' range forecasts), and two approaches that incorporate SA; autologistic models and residuals autocovariate (RAC) models. Differences in forecasts among modeling approaches and climate scenarios were quantified. While all model predictions at the current time closely matched that of the actual current distribution of the mangrove communities, under the climate change scenarios environment-only models forecast substantially greater range shifts than models incorporating SA. Furthermore, the magnitude of these differences intensified with increasing increments of climate change across the scenarios. When models do not account for SA, forecasts of species' range shifts indicate more extreme impacts of climate change, compared to models that explicitly account for SA. Therefore, where biological or population processes induce substantial autocorrelation in the distribution of organisms, and this is not modeled, model predictions will be inaccurate. These results have global importance for conservation efforts as inaccurate forecasts lead to ineffective prioritization of conservation activities and potentially to avoidable species extinctions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Beth Crase
- The Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Melbourne, Vic., 3010, Australia
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19
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Barnes MA, Jerde CL, Wittmann ME, Chadderton WL, Ding J, Zhang J, Purcell M, Budhathoki M, Lodge DM. Geographic selection bias of occurrence data influences transferability of invasive Hydrilla verticillata distribution models. Ecol Evol 2014; 4:2584-93. [PMID: 25360288 PMCID: PMC4203300 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.1120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2013] [Revised: 04/28/2014] [Accepted: 04/30/2014] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Due to socioeconomic differences, the accuracy and extent of reporting on the occurrence of native species differs among countries, which can impact the performance of species distribution models. We assessed the importance of geographical biases in occurrence data on model performance using Hydrilla verticillata as a case study. We used Maxent to predict potential North American distribution of the aquatic invasive macrophyte based upon training data from its native range. We produced a model using all available native range occurrence data, then explored the change in model performance produced by omitting subsets of training data based on political boundaries. We also compared those results with models trained on data from which a random sample of occurrence data was omitted from across the native range. Although most models accurately predicted the occurrence of H. verticillata in North America (AUC > 0.7600), data omissions influenced model predictions. Omitting data based on political boundaries resulted in larger shifts in model accuracy than omitting randomly selected occurrence data. For well-documented species like H. verticillata, missing records from single countries or ecoregions may minimally influence model predictions, but for species with fewer documented occurrences or poorly understood ranges, geographic biases could misguide predictions. Regardless of focal species, we recommend that future species distribution modeling efforts begin with a reflection on potential spatial biases of available occurrence data. Improved biodiversity surveillance and reporting will provide benefit not only in invaded ranges but also within under-reported and unexplored native ranges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew A Barnes
- Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame Notre Dame, Indiana
| | - Christopher L Jerde
- Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame Notre Dame, Indiana
| | - Marion E Wittmann
- Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame Notre Dame, Indiana
| | | | - Jianqing Ding
- Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences Wuhan, China
| | - Jialiang Zhang
- Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences Wuhan, China
| | - Matthew Purcell
- Agricultural Research Service, Australian Biological Control Laboratory, United States Department of Agriculture Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Milan Budhathoki
- Center for Research Computing, University of Notre Dame Notre Dame, Indiana
| | - David M Lodge
- Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame Notre Dame, Indiana
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20
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Dunne JA, Labandeira CC, Williams RJ. Highly resolved early Eocene food webs show development of modern trophic structure after the end-Cretaceous extinction. Proc Biol Sci 2014; 281:20133280. [PMID: 24648225 PMCID: PMC3973268 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.3280] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Generalities of food web structure have been identified for extant ecosystems. However, the trophic organization of ancient ecosystems is unresolved, as prior studies of fossil webs have been limited by low-resolution, high-uncertainty data. We compiled highly resolved, well-documented feeding interaction data for 700 taxa from the 48 million-year-old latest early Eocene Messel Shale, which contains a species assemblage that developed after an interval of protracted environmental and biotal change during and following the end-Cretaceous extinction. We compared the network structure of Messel lake and forest food webs to extant webs using analyses that account for scale dependence of structure with diversity and complexity. The Messel lake web, with 94 taxa, displays unambiguous similarities in structure to extant webs. While the Messel forest web, with 630 taxa, displays differences compared to extant webs, they appear to result from high diversity and resolution of insect–plant interactions, rather than substantive differences in structure. The evidence presented here suggests that modern trophic organization developed along with the modern Messel biota during an 18 Myr interval of dramatic post-extinction change. Our study also has methodological implications, as the Messel forest web analysis highlights limitations of current food web data and models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer A Dunne
- Santa Fe Institute, , 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA, Pacific Ecoinformatics and Computational Ecology Lab, , Berkeley, CA 94703, USA, Department of Paleobiology, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, , Washington, DC 20013-7012, USA, Department of Entomology and Behavior, Ecology, Evolution and Systematics Program, University of Maryland, , College Park, MD 20742, USA, Microsoft Research, , Cambridge CB3 OFB, UK
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21
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Albouy C, Velez L, Coll M, Colloca F, Le Loc'h F, Mouillot D, Gravel D. From projected species distribution to food-web structure under climate change. Glob Chang Biol 2014; 20:730-741. [PMID: 24214576 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12467] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2013] [Revised: 10/01/2013] [Accepted: 09/18/2013] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is inducing deep modifications in species geographic ranges worldwide. However, the consequences of such changes on community structure are still poorly understood, particularly the impacts on food-web properties. Here, we propose a new framework, coupling species distribution and trophic models, to predict climate change impacts on food-web structure across the Mediterranean Sea. Sea surface temperature was used to determine the fish climate niches and their future distributions. Body size was used to infer trophic interactions between fish species. Our projections reveal that 54 fish species of 256 endemic and native species included in our analysis would disappear by 2080-2099 from the Mediterranean continental shelf. The number of feeding links between fish species would decrease on 73.4% of the continental shelf. However, the connectance of the overall fish web would increase on average, from 0.26 to 0.29, mainly due to a differential loss rate of feeding links and species richness. This result masks a systematic decrease in predator generality, estimated here as the number of prey species, from 30.0 to 25.4. Therefore, our study highlights large-scale impacts of climate change on marine food-web structure with potential deep consequences on ecosystem functioning. However, these impacts will likely be highly heterogeneous in space, challenging our current understanding of climate change impact on local marine ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Camille Albouy
- Laboratoire Écologie des Systèmes Marins Côtiers UMR 5119 CNRS-UM2-IRD-IFREMER ECOSYM, Place E. Bataillon, Montpellier Cedex 5, 34095, France; Laboratoire Écosystèmes Marins Exploités UMR 212, IRD-IFREMER-UM2, avenue Jean Monnet BP171, Sète Cedex, 34203, France; Département de biologie, Chimie et Géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 Allée des Ursulines, Québec, G5L 3A1, Canada
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22
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Ladau J, Sharpton TJ, Finucane MM, Jospin G, Kembel SW, O'Dwyer J, Koeppel AF, Green JL, Pollard KS. Global marine bacterial diversity peaks at high latitudes in winter. ISME J 2013; 7:1669-77. [PMID: 23514781 PMCID: PMC3749493 DOI: 10.1038/ismej.2013.37] [Citation(s) in RCA: 118] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2012] [Revised: 01/25/2013] [Accepted: 01/31/2013] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Genomic approaches to characterizing bacterial communities are revealing significant differences in diversity and composition between environments. But bacterial distributions have not been mapped at a global scale. Although current community surveys are way too sparse to map global diversity patterns directly, there is now sufficient data to fit accurate models of how bacterial distributions vary across different environments and to make global scale maps from these models. We apply this approach to map the global distributions of bacteria in marine surface waters. Our spatially and temporally explicit predictions suggest that bacterial diversity peaks in temperate latitudes across the world's oceans. These global peaks are seasonal, occurring 6 months apart in the two hemispheres, in the boreal and austral winters. This pattern is quite different from the tropical, seasonally consistent diversity patterns observed for most macroorganisms. However, like other marine organisms, surface water bacteria are particularly diverse in regions of high human environmental impacts on the oceans. Our maps provide the first picture of bacterial distributions at a global scale and suggest important differences between the diversity patterns of bacteria compared with other organisms.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joshua Ladau
- The Gladstone Institutes, University of California, San Francisco, CA 94158, USA.
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23
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Abstract
Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Colin M Beale
- Department of Biology, University of York, Wentworth Way, York YO10 5DD, UK.
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Wenger SJ, Isaak DJ, Luce CH, Neville HM, Fausch KD, Dunham JB, Dauwalter DC, Young MK, Elsner MM, Rieman BE, Hamlet AF, Williams JE. Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2011; 108:14175-80. [PMID: 21844354 PMCID: PMC3161569 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1103097108] [Citation(s) in RCA: 177] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km(2)), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species' physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.
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25
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Abstract
Our ability to predict consequences of climate change is severely impaired by the lack of knowledge on the ability of species to adapt to changing environmental conditions. We used distribution data for 140 mammal species in Europe, together with data on climate, land cover and topography, to derive a statistical description of their realized climate niche. We then compared climate niche overlap of pairs of species, selected on the basis of phylogenetic information. In contrast to expectations, related species were not similar in their climate niche. Rather, even species pairs that had a common ancestor less than 1 Ma already display very high climate niche distances. We interpret our finding as a strong interspecific competitive constraint on the realized niche, rather than a rapid evolution of the fundamental niche. If correct, our results imply a very limited usefulness of climate niche models for the prediction of future mammal distributions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carsten F Dormann
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, Permoserstrasse 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany.
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