Building a small fire database for Sub-Saharan Africa from Sentinel-2 high-resolution images

Unravelling spatiotemporal heterogeneity of wildfire carbon dioxide emissions in Southeast Asia: based on a high-resolution inventory

Wildfire carbon dioxide emissions (FCE) profoundly impact the climate and environment. Land use, meteorology, and other factors contribute to the spatial heterogeneity of FCE. High-resolution emission inventories enhance our understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics of emissions, providing critical data for climate change and environmental studies. In this study, we developed a 500-m resolution FCE inventory by integrating burned area and fire radiative energy methods. Our integrated method combines the strengths of both the burned area and fire radiative energy methods, enhancing the accuracy of FCE estimation. The results show that the method improves the overall FCE estimate by 70.2 % compared to that of the burned area method alone. Based on the high-resolution inventory and the spatiotemporal cube technique, we identified the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of FCE and high-resolution multi-modal hotspot distributions. These include the El Niño-driven intra-annual 'double peaks' observed in Southeast Asia (SEA) in 2015 and 2019 and the seasonal variability of emissions between Mainland and Equatorial SEA. Forest fires, concentrated in Myanmar and Laos, are the largest source of FCE in SEA. Meanwhile, sporadic hotspots dominate in SEA, reflecting intermittent meteorological and anthropogenic influences. Moreover, by combining this inventory with a database of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel consumption, we reveal the structural dynamics of carbon dioxide emissions, highlighting the critical role of FCE in achieving regional carbon neutrality. This study offers significant insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of FCE and provides actionable pathways for mitigation strategies and sustainable wildfire management.

Seasonal spatial-temporal trends of vegetation recovery in burned areas across Africa

Africa is entering a new fire paradigm, with climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressure shifting the patterns of frequency and severity. Thus, it is crucial to use available information and technologies to understand vegetation dynamics during the post-fire recovery processes. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the seasonal spatio-temporal trends of vegetation recovery in response to fires across Africa, from 2001 to 2020. Non-parametric tests were used to analyze MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products comparing the following three-month seasonal periods: December-February (DJF), March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), and September-November (SON). We evaluated the seasonal spatial trends of NDVI in burned areas by hemisphere, territory, or country, and by land cover types, and fire recurrences, with a focus on forested areas. The relationships between the seasonal spatial trend and three climatic variables (i.e. maximum air temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure deficit) were then analyzed. For the 8.7 million km2 burned in Africa over the past 22 years, we observed several seasonal spatial trends of NDVI. The highest proportions of areas with increasing trend (p < 0.05) was recorded in MAM for both hemispheres, with 22.0% in the Northern Hemisphere and 17.4% in the Southern Hemisphere. In contrast, areas with decreasing trends (p < 0.05), showed 4.8-5.5% of burned area in the Northern Hemisphere, peaking in JJA, while the Southern Hemisphere showed a range of 7.1 to 10.9% with the highest proportion also in JJA. Regarding land cover types, 48.0% of fires occurred in forests, 24.1% in shrublands, 16.6% in agricultural fields, and 8.9% in grasslands/savannas. Consistent with the overall trend, the area exhibiting an increasing trend in NDVI values (p < 0.05) within forested regions had the highest proportion in MAM, with 19.9% in the Northern Hemisphere and 20.6% in the Southern Hemisphere. Conversely, the largest decreasing trend (p < 0.05) was observed in DJF in the Northern Hemisphere (2.7-2.9%) and in JJA in the Southern Hemisphere (7.2-10.4%). Seasonally, we found a high variability of regeneration trends of forested areas based on fire recurrences. In addition, we found that of the three climatic variables, increasing vapor pressure deficit values were more related to decreasing NDVI levels. These results indicate a strong component of seasonality with respect to fires, trends of vegetation increase or decrease in the different vegetation covers of the African continent, and they contribute to the understanding of climatic conditions that contribute to vegetation recovery. This information is helpful for researchers and decision makers to act on specific sites during restoration processes.

Enhanced CH4 emissions from global wildfires likely due to undetected small fires

Monitoring methane (CH4) emissions from terrestrial ecosystems is essential for assessing the relative contributions of natural and anthropogenic factors leading to climate change and shaping global climate goals. Fires are a significant source of atmospheric CH4, with the increasing frequency of megafires amplifying their impact. Global fire emissions exhibit large spatiotemporal variations, making the magnitude and dynamics difficult to characterize accurately. In this study, we reconstruct global fire CH4 emissions by integrating satellite carbon monoxide (CO)-based atmospheric inversion with well-constrained fire CH4 to CO emission ratio maps. Here we show that global fire CH4 emissions averaged 24.0 (17.7-30.4) Tg yr-1 from 2003 to 2020, approximately 27% higher (equivalent to 5.1 Tg yr-1) than average estimates from four widely used fire emission models. This discrepancy likely stems from undetected small fires and underrepresented emission intensities in coarse-resolution data. Our study highlights the value of atmospheric inversion based on fire tracers like CO to track fire-carbon-climate feedback.

Spatial analysis and machine learning prediction of forest fire susceptibility: a comprehensive approach for effective management and mitigation

Forest fires (FF) in tropical seasonal forests impact ecosystem. Addressing FF in tropical ecosystems has become a priority to mitigate impacts on biodiversity loss and climate change. The escalating frequency and intensity of FF globally have become a mounting concern. Understanding their tendencies, patterns, and vulnerabilities is imperative for conserving ecosystems and facilitating the development of effective prevention and management strategies. This study investigates the trends, patterns, and spatiotemporal distribution of FF for the period of 2001-2022, and delineates the forest fire susceptibility zones in Odisha State, India. The study utilized: (a) MODIS imagery to examine active fire point data; (b) Kernel density tools; (c) FF risk prediction using two machine learning algorithms, namely Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF); (d) Receiver Operating Characteristic and Area Under the Curve, along with various evaluation metrics; and (e) a total of 19 factors, including three topographical, seven climatic, four biophysical, and five anthropogenic, to create a map indicating areas vulnerable to FF. The validation results revealed that the RF model achieved a precision exceeding 94 % on the validation datasets, while the SVM model reached 89 %. The estimated forest fire susceptibility zones using RF and SVM techniques indicated that 20.14 % and 16.72 % of the area, respectively, fall under the "Very High Forest Fire" susceptibility class. Trend analysis reveals a general upward trend in forest fire occurrences (R2 = 0.59), with a notable increase after 2015, peaking in 2021. Notably, Angul district was identified as the most affected area, documenting the highest number of forest fire incidents over the past 22 years. Additionally, forest fire mitigation plans have been developed by drawing insights from forest fire management strategies implemented in various countries worldwide. Overall, this analysis provides valuable insights for policymakers and forest management authorities to develop effective strategies for forest fire prevention and mitigation.

Coarse-resolution burned area datasets severely underestimate fire-related forest loss

Global coarse-resolution (≥250 m) burned area (BA) products have been used to estimate fire related forest loss, but we hypothesised that a significant part of fire impacts might be undetected because of the underestimation of small fires (<100 ha), especially in the tropics. In this paper, we analysed fire-related forest cover loss in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for 2016 and 2019 based on a BA product generated from Sentinel-2 data (20 m), which was observed to have significantly lower omission errors than the coarse-resolution BA products. Using these higher resolution BA datasets, we found that fires contribute to >46 % of total forest losses over SSA, more than twice the estimates from coarse-resolution BA products. In addition, burned forest areas showed more than twofold likelihood of subsequent loss compared to unburned ones. In moist tropical forests, the most fire-vulnerable biome, burning had even six times more chance to precede forest loss than unburned areas. We also found that fire-related characteristics, such as fire size and season, and forest fragmentation play a major role in the determination of tree cover fate. Our results reveal that medium-resolution BA detects more fires in late fire season, which tend to have higher impact on forests than early season ones. On the other hand, small fires represented the major driver of forest loss after fires and the vast majority of these losses occur in fragmented landscapes near forest edge (<260 m). Therefore medium-resolution BA products are required to obtain a more accurate evaluation of fire impacts in tropical ecosystems.

A European-scale analysis reveals the complex roles of anthropogenic and climatic factors in driving the initiation of large wildfires

Analysing wildfire initiation patterns and identifying their primary drivers is essential for the development of more efficient fire prevention strategies. However, such analyses have traditionally been conducted at local or national scales, hindering cross-border comparisons and the formulation of broad-scale policy initiatives. In this study, we present an analysis of the spatial variability of wildfire initiations across Europe, focusing specifically on moderate to large fires (> 100 ha), and examining the influence of both human and climatic factors on initiation areas. We estimated drivers of fire initiation using machine learning algorithms, specifically Random Forest (RF), covering the majority of the European territory (referred to as the "ET scale"). The models were trained using data on fire initiations extracted from a satellite burned area product, comprising fires occurring from 2001 to 2019. We developed six RF models: three considering all fires larger than 100 ha, and three focused solely on the largest events (> 1000 ha). Models were developed using climatic and human predictors separately, as well as both types of predictors mixed together. We found that both climatic and mixed models demonstrated moderate predictive capacity, with AUC values ranging from 79 % to 81 %; while models based only on human variables have had poor predictive capacity (AUC of 60 %). Feature importance analysis, using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), allowed us to assess the primary drivers of wildfire initiations across the European Territory. Aridity and evapotranspiration had the strongest effect on fire initiation. Among human variables, population density and aging had considerable effects on fire initiation, the former with a strong effect in mixed models estimating large fires, while the latter had a more important role in the prediction of very large fires. Distance to roads and forest-agriculture interfaces were also relevant in some initiation models. A better understanding of drivers of main fire events should help designing European forest fire management strategies, particularly in the light of growing importance of climate change, as it would affect both fire severity and areas at risk. Factors of fire initiation should also be part of a comprehensive approach for fire risk assessment, reduction and adaption, contributing to more effective wildfire management and mitigation across the continent.

Madagascar's burned area from Sentinel-2 imagery (2016-2022): Four times higher than from lower resolution sensors

Madagascar is one of the most burned regions in the world, to the point that it has been called the 'Isle of fire' or the 'Burning Island'. An accurate characterization of the burned area (BA) is crucial for understanding the true situation and impacts of fires on this island, where there is an active scientific debate on how fire affects multiple environmental and socioeconomic aspects, and how fire regimes should be in a complex context with differing interests. Despite this, recent advances have revealed that BA in Madagascar is poorly characterised by the currently available global BA products. In this work, we present, validate, and explore a BA database at 20 m spatial resolution for Madagascar covering the period 2016-2022. The database was built based on 75,010 Sentinel-2 images using a two-phase BA detection algorithm. The validation with independent long-term reference units showed Dice coefficients ≥79 %, omission errors ≤24 %, commission errors ≤18 %, and a relative bias ≥ - 8 %. An intercomparison with other available global BA products (GABAM, FireCCI51, C3SBA11, or MCD64) demonstrated that our product (i) exhibits temporal consistency, (ii) represents a significant accuracy improvement, as it reduces BA underestimations by about eightfold, (iii) yields BA estimates four times higher, and (iv) shows enhanced capability in detecting fires of all sizes. The observed BA spatial patterns were heterogeneous across the island, with 32 % of the grasslands burning annually, in contrast to other land cover types such as the dense tropical forest where <2 % burned every year. We conclude that the BA characterization in Madagascar must be addressed using imagery at spatial resolution higher than MODIS or Sentinel-3 (≥250 m), and temporal resolution higher than Landsat (16 days) to deal with cloudiness, the rapid attenuation of burn scars signals, and small fire patches.

Fire regime of peatlands in the Angolan Highlands

The Angolan Highlands region includes the Angolan miombo woodland ecoregion which supports miombo woodland, grasslands, subsistence agricultural land, and peatland deposits. Extensive fires, slash and burn agriculture, peat fuel extraction, and peatland drainage are among the anthropogenic practices that threaten these peatland deposits. Peat fires cause peatland degradation, release significant amounts of greenhouse gases, deteriorate air quality, and contribute towards climate change and biodiversity loss. This study presents an analysis of the fire regimes over the period 2001 to 2020 in an under-studied area of the Angolan Highlands. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire and vegetation data were used in combination with a land use/land cover (LULC) classification map to calculate fire frequency, burn area, and fire regimes. The fire patterns within the study site are comparable to those found in African woodland savannas. Across the study site, 6976 km² (11.31%) of the land surface area burned at least nine times from 2001 to 2020, occurring largely within in the river valley environment. Considering the different LULC classes, peatlands were calculated to (a) burn more frequently (average fire frequency from 2001 to 2020 = 9.12), (b) have the smallest proportion (4.11%) of area which remained unburnt over the fire archive, and (c) have the largest average proportion (45.65% or 746 km²) of burnt area per year. Peatland burning occurred predominantly during drier months from May to September. The results of this study highlight the strong influence of LULC on the fire frequency and distribution in the study area, requiring unique fire management strategies. As has been documented for boreal and tropical peatlands across the globe, we stress the importance of peatland conservation and protection; continued unsustainable management practices may lead to the loss of these important peatland deposits.

On the use of Earth Observation to support estimates of national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks for the Global stocktake process: lessons learned from ESA-CCI RECCAP2

The Global Stocktake (GST), implemented by the Paris Agreement, requires rapid developments in the capabilities to quantify annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals consistently from the global to the national scale and improvements to national GHG inventories. In particular, new capabilities are needed for accurate attribution of sources and sinks and their trends to natural and anthropogenic processes. On the one hand, this is still a major challenge as national GHG inventories follow globally harmonized methodologies based on the guidelines established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but these can be implemented differently for individual countries. Moreover, in many countries the capability to systematically produce detailed and annually updated GHG inventories is still lacking. On the other hand, spatially-explicit datasets quantifying sources and sinks of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions from Earth Observations (EO) are still limited by many sources of uncertainty. While national GHG inventories follow diverse methodologies depending on the availability of activity data in the different countries, the proposed comparison with EO-based estimates can help improve our understanding of the comparability of the estimates published by the different countries. Indeed, EO networks and satellite platforms have seen a massive expansion in the past decade, now covering a wide range of essential climate variables and offering high potential to improve the quantification of global and regional GHG budgets and advance process understanding. Yet, there is no EO data that quantifies greenhouse gas fluxes directly, rather there are observations of variables or proxies that can be transformed into fluxes using models. Here, we report results and lessons from the ESA-CCI RECCAP2 project, whose goal was to engage with National Inventory Agencies to improve understanding about the methods used by each community to estimate sources and sinks of GHGs and to evaluate the potential for satellite and in-situ EO to improve national GHG estimates. Based on this dialogue and recent studies, we discuss the potential of EO approaches to provide estimates of GHG budgets that can be compared with those of national GHG inventories. We outline a roadmap for implementation of an EO carbon-monitoring program that can contribute to the Paris Agreement.