Can large-scale tree planting in China compensate for the loss of climate connectivity due to deforestation?

Extensive deforestation has been a major reason for the loss of forest connectivity, impeding species range shifts under current climate change. Over the past decades, the Chinese government launched a series of afforestation and reforestation projects to increase forest cover, yet whether the new forests can compensate for the loss of connectivity due to deforestation-and where future tree planting would be most effective-remains largely unknown. Here, we evaluate changes in climate connectivity across China's forests between 2015 and 2019. We find that China's large-scale tree planting alleviated the negative impacts of forest loss on climate connectivity, improving the extent and probability of climate connectivity by 0-0.2 °C and 0-0.03, respectively. The improvements were particularly obvious for species with short dispersal distances (i.e., 3 km and 10 km). Nevertheless, only ~55 % of the trees planted in this period could serve as stepping stones for species movement. This indicates that focusing solely on the quantitative target of forest coverage without considering the connectivity of forests may miss opportunities in tree planting to facilitate climate-induced range shifts. More attention should be paid to the spatial arrangement of tree plantations and their potential as stepping stones. We then identify priority areas for future tree planting to create effective stepping stones. Our study highlights the potential of large-scale tree planting to facilitate range shifts. Future tree-planting efforts should incorporate the need for species range shifts to achieve more biodiversity conservation benefits under climate change.

Coarse-resolution burned area datasets severely underestimate fire-related forest loss

Global coarse-resolution (≥250 m) burned area (BA) products have been used to estimate fire related forest loss, but we hypothesised that a significant part of fire impacts might be undetected because of the underestimation of small fires (<100 ha), especially in the tropics. In this paper, we analysed fire-related forest cover loss in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for 2016 and 2019 based on a BA product generated from Sentinel-2 data (20 m), which was observed to have significantly lower omission errors than the coarse-resolution BA products. Using these higher resolution BA datasets, we found that fires contribute to >46 % of total forest losses over SSA, more than twice the estimates from coarse-resolution BA products. In addition, burned forest areas showed more than twofold likelihood of subsequent loss compared to unburned ones. In moist tropical forests, the most fire-vulnerable biome, burning had even six times more chance to precede forest loss than unburned areas. We also found that fire-related characteristics, such as fire size and season, and forest fragmentation play a major role in the determination of tree cover fate. Our results reveal that medium-resolution BA detects more fires in late fire season, which tend to have higher impact on forests than early season ones. On the other hand, small fires represented the major driver of forest loss after fires and the vast majority of these losses occur in fragmented landscapes near forest edge (<260 m). Therefore medium-resolution BA products are required to obtain a more accurate evaluation of fire impacts in tropical ecosystems.

Long-term monitoring of forest cover change resulting in forest loss in the capital of Luang Prabang province, Lao PDR

Loss of forest cover has an important impact on global climate change. This study investigated variation in forest cover in Luang Prabang district, the capital of Luang Prabang province, Lao PDR, using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Operational Land Imager (OLI) satellite imagery over the period 1988-2021. The maximum likelihood classification technique was used to classify Landsat images of the years 1988, 2001, 2011, and 2021 and was evaluated for accuracy using the kappa coefficient for each year (0.860, 0.869, 0.878, and 0.950, respectively). The potential of classification based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) to detect changes in natural forest and cultivated forest cover compared with supervised classification was also evaluated. The natural forest cover of the study area was estimated at 84.09% (687.82 km2) of the total land area in 1988. This number decreased to 56.93% (465.69 km2) in 2001 and subsequently increased to 60.85% (497.77 km2) in 2011 and 66.49% (543.92 km2) in 2021. Cultivated forest cover in 1988 was 4.96% (40.58 km2) and increased to 16.84% (137.76 km2) in 2001, however it decreased to 13.57% (110.97 km2) in 2011 and 9.67% (79.10 km2) in 2021. Severely reduced forest cover is often associated with the expansion of agriculture on the forest edge. Logging and charcoal production are other problems that contribute to the reduction of forest cover. Overall, our results show the necessity of forest management, rational land-use planning policy, and increased community awareness of conservation and sustainable development of forest resources in the study area in the future.

Local stakeholder perceptions of forest degradation: Keys to sustainable tropical forest management

Land use policies and planning in Latin America have been partially successful in halting deforestation yet have not stopped forest degradation. Here, we study the different stakeholders' perspectives of the drivers of forest degradation. We use Colombia as a case study for understanding synergies and trade-offs of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and analyzed what the most important causes are, to whom it matters, and their regional contribution. We identified a common perception, but miscommunication and misunderstandings occur between local- and national-level actors in terms of their views on responsibilities and rates of change. The results are a call for action. Cross-scale governance is necessary to improve the design and implementation of policies for forest management at the subnational and local levels and to ensure that we move toward sustainable development without worsening existing inequalities. It is essential that countries provide the enabling conditions to develop a coherent governing framework.

Direct and indirect effects of agricultural land cover on avian biodiversity in eastern Canada

Agriculture is one of the largest threats to global biodiversity. However, most studies have focused only on the direct effects of agriculture on biodiversity, and few have addressed the indirect effects, potentially over or under-estimating the overall impacts of agriculture on biodiversity. The indirect effect is the response not to the agricultural cover types or operations per se, but instead, to the way that agriculture influences the extent and configuration of different types of natural land cover in the landscape. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to evaluate the direct, indirect, and total effects of agriculture on species richness of three bird guilds: forest birds, shrub-edge birds, and open country birds. We found that forest bird richness was driven by the negative indirect effect of cropland via forest loss. Shrub-edge and open country bird richness increased with the amount of agriculture land covers; however, importantly, we found negative indirect effects of agriculture on both guilds via a reduction in more natural land covers. This latter result highlights how we would have over-estimated the positive effects of agriculture on shrub-edge and open country bird richness had we not measured both direct and indirect effects (i.e., the total effect size is less than the direct effect size). Overall, our results suggest that a bird-friendly agricultural landscape in our region would have forest that is configured to maximize forest edge, and a high proportion of perennial forage within the agricultural portion of the landscape.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10531-023-02559-1.

Large net forest loss in Cambodia's Tonle Sap Lake protected areas during 1992-2019

Historical land-use practices have caused forest loss in Cambodia's Tonle Sap Lake area (TSLA), the largest freshwater lake in Southeast Asia. However, it remains unclear if this deforestation trend had continued since 2001 when the land was designated as protected areas. Using satellite imagery, we investigated forest conversion flows and fragmentation patterns in the TSLA for 1992-2001, 2001-2010, and 2010-2019, respectively. Results show substantial forest losses and fragmentations occurring at the lower floodplain where the protected areas are located until 2010, with some forest regain during 2010-2019. The land conversions indicated that forest clearing and agricultural farming were the primary causes for observed extensive forest loss during 1992-2010. Hence, despite the creating of protected areas in 2001, our findings reveal the persistence of alarming forest loss in the TSLA until 2010. On the other hand, while net forest loss has stopped after 2010, forest regain during 2010-2019 is way too small to restore the region's total forest area to even the level when the protected areas were established. Thus, more effective planning and implementations of forest management and restoration policies are needed for the TSLA.

Climate change, fire return intervals and the growing risk of permanent forest loss in boreal Eurasia

Climate change has driven an increase in the frequency and severity of fires in Eurasian boreal forests. A growing number of field studies have linked the change in fire regime to post-fire recruitment failure and permanent forest loss. In this study we used four burned area and two forest loss datasets to calculate the landscape-scale fire return interval (FRI) and associated risk of permanent forest loss. We then used machine learning to predict how the FRI will change under a high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0) by the end of the century. We found that there are currently 133,000 km² forest at high, or extreme, risk of fire-induced forest loss, with a further 3 M km² at risk by the end of the century. This has the potential to degrade or destroy some of the largest remaining intact forests in the world, negatively impact the health and economic wellbeing of people living in the region, as well as accelerate global climate change.

Impacts of forest loss on local climate across the conterminous United States: Evidence from satellite time-series observations

Forest disturbances alter land biophysics. Their impacts on local climate and land surface temperature (LST) cannot be directly measured by comparing pre- and post-disturbance observations of the same site over time (e.g., due to confounding such as background climate fluctuations); a common remedy is to compare spatially-adjacent undisturbed sites instead. This space-for-time substitution ignores the inherent biases in vegetation between two paired sites, interannual variations, and temporal dynamics of forest recovery. Besides, there is a lack of observation-based analyses at fine spatial resolutions capable of capturing spatial heterogeneity of small-scale forest disturbances. To address these limitations, here we report new satellite analyses on local climate impacts of forest loss at 30 m resolution. Our analyses combined multiple long-term satellite products (e.g., albedo and evapotranspiration [ET]) at 700 sites across major climate zones in the conterminous United States, using time-series trend and changepoint detection methods. Our method helped isolate the biophysical changes attributed to disturbances from those attributed to climate backgrounds and natural growth. On average, forest loss increased surface albedo, decreased ET, and reduced leaf area index (LAI). Net annual warming-an increase in LST-was observed after forest loss in the arid/semiarid, northern, tropical, and temperate regions, dominated by the warming from decreased ET and attenuated by the cooling from increased albedo. The magnitude of post-disturbance warming was related to precipitation; climate zones with greater precipitation showed stronger and longer warming. Reduction in leaf or LAI was larger in evergreen than deciduous forests, but the recovery in LAI did not always synchronize with those of albedo and ET. Overall, this study presents new evidence of biophysical effects of forest loss on LST at finer spatial resolutions; our time-series method can be further leveraged to derive local policy-relevant ecosystem climate regulation metrics or support model-based climate-biosphere studies.

Does leakage exist in China's typical protected areas? Evidence from 13 national nature reserves

There is profound interest in knowing the degree to which the effectiveness of China's nature reserves, and whether leakage is common around the reserves, in the face of the most drastic conflicts between conservation and development in the world. To answer these questions, we employed the Landsat-derived Global Forest Change Dataset with 30-m resolution to examine forest change patterns during 2001 and 2017 both inside and outside of 13 typically national nature reserves in China. The average forest loss rates inside the reserves were significantly lower than those of outside the reserves (i.e., both in buffer and landscape zones), suggesting the success in protecting forest of these reserves in China. We found that the protection practice reduced approximately 10% of deforestation. Protection efficiency may be substantially overestimated (about 13-43%) if failing to control the related variables, such as altitude, climate, and human interference. The forest loss rates in the buffer zones were not significantly higher than those in the broader landscape zones, suggesting that leakage is not a frequent occurrence in the buffer zones of the reserves. However, the forest loss rates showed a slightly increasing tendency from 2001 to 2017, the loss rates increased gradually from inside to their outside buffer zones, and leakage was observed in certain zones of some years for most of the reserves. The conversions of forest to grassland and cultivated land were the primary trajectories of forest loss both inside and outside of the reserves. Though the leakage is not universal in the reserves across the country, forest loss rates are much higher in the buffer zones than those inside the reserves, resulting in increased insulation of the reserves that could undermine the provisioning of ecosystem services and the biodiversity conservation efficiency.

Recent changes in heatwaves and maximum temperatures over a complex terrain in the Himalayas

The temperature response to anthropogenic global warming and forest cover changes is dependent on regional climatic characteristics. It is challenging to segregate the impacts of the two anthropogenic changes on local temperatures and heatwaves over complex mountainous regions. Here we present estimates of regional and local heat stress responses to the recent global climate change and local forest cover loss in complex terrain in the Himalayas using a satellite-based high-resolution land-surface temperature dataset. We find large-scale decreasing trends in the observed frequency of heatwaves and heat days, and localized increases in urbanized and high-elevation regions. Our results show large-scale significant decreasing trends in annual maximum and mean surface temperatures over the period 2003-2019. In locations that have witnessed large-scale forest losses, the declines in the surface temperatures were steeper compared to no-loss regions. We develop a regional multiple linear regression model to estimate the regional and local temperature responses to global climatic change and to segregate them from the response to forest cover losses. Our model estimates a regional decrease of about 2.0 °C in annual maximum temperature over the recent 2003-2019 period, which is locally modulated by the extent of urbanization, forest cover, and elevation. At the locations of intense deforestation, our model successfully predicts a steeper decrease in maximum surface temperature, and estimates the temperature response due to forest loss, after controlling for elevation and initial forest cover. The local cooling effect due to deforestation was reaffirmed by comparing the regions with contrasting forest cover losses. The results suggest that forest clearing amplifies the anthropogenic climate change over the region.

Contemporary forest loss in Myanmar: Effect of democratic transition and subsequent timber bans on landscape structure and composition

This study addresses the effect of political transition and subsequent timber bans on forest loss in Myanmar, in the context of identified drivers. Cook's Distance (CD) was applied to remotely sensed time-series forest loss dataset to measure the effect of the events. Forest loss derived fragmentation metrics were linked to drivers at a landscape scale. Results show that at the national level, the political transition in 2011 had maximum effect (CD 0.935) on forest loss while the timber bans decreased forest loss by 612.04 km² and 213.15 km² in 2015 and 2017 (CD 0.146 and 0.035), respectively. The effect of the events varied for different States/Regions. The dominant drivers of change shifted from plantations in 2011 to infrastructure development in 2015. This study demonstrates the effects of policy on forest loss at various scales and can inform decision-makers for forest conservation, planning and development of mitigation measures.

Support for the habitat amount hypothesis from a global synthesis of species density studies

Decades of research suggest that species richness depends on spatial characteristics of habitat patches, especially their size and isolation. In contrast, the habitat amount hypothesis predicts that (1) species richness in plots of fixed size (species density) is more strongly and positively related to the amount of habitat around the plot than to patch size or isolation; (2) habitat amount better predicts species density than patch size and isolation combined, (3) there is no effect of habitat fragmentation per se on species density and (4) patch size and isolation effects do not become stronger with declining habitat amount. Data on eight taxonomic groups from 35 studies around the world support these predictions. Conserving species density requires minimising habitat loss, irrespective of the configuration of the patches in which that habitat is contained.

Socio-economic factors and management regimes as drivers of tree cover change in Nepal

Despite the local and global importance of forests, deforestation is driven by various socio-economic and biophysical factors continues in many countries. In Nepal, in response to massive deforestation, the community forestry program has been implemented to reduce deforestation and support livelihoods. After four decades of its inception, the effectiveness of this program on forest cover change remains mostly unknown. This study analyses the spatial and temporal patterns of tree cover change along with a few socio-economic drivers of tree cover change to examine the effectiveness of the community forestry program for conserving forests or in reducing deforestation. We also investigate the socio-economic factors and policy responses as manifested through the community forestry program responsible for the tree cover change at the district level. The total tree cover area in the year 2000 in Nepal was ∼4,746,000 hectares, and our analysis reveals that between 2001 and 2016, Nepal has lost ∼46,000 ha and gained ∼12,200 ha of areas covered by trees with a substantial spatial and temporal variations. After accounting socio-economic drivers of forest cover change, our analysis showed that districts with the larger number of community forests had a minimum loss in tree cover, while districts with the higher proportion of vegetation covered by community forests had a maximum gain in tree cover. This indicates a positive contribution of the community forestry program to reducing deforestation and increasing tree cover.

Environmental and spatial drivers of taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic characteristics of bat communities in human-modified landscapes

Background

Assembly of species into communities following human disturbance (e.g., deforestation, fragmentation) may be governed by spatial (e.g., dispersal) or environmental (e.g., niche partitioning) mechanisms. Variation partitioning has been used to broadly disentangle spatial and environmental mechanisms, and approaches utilizing functional and phylogenetic characteristics of communities have been implemented to determine the relative importance of particular environmental (or niche-based) mechanisms. Nonetheless, few studies have integrated these quantitative approaches to comprehensively assess the relative importance of particular structuring processes.

Methods

We employed a novel variation partitioning approach to evaluate the relative importance of particular spatial and environmental drivers of taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic aspects of bat communities in a human-modified landscape in Costa Rica. Specifically, we estimated the amount of variation in species composition (taxonomic structure) and in two aspects of functional and phylogenetic structure (i.e., composition and dispersion) along a forest loss and fragmentation gradient that are uniquely explained by landscape characteristics (i.e., environment) or space to assess the importance of competing mechanisms.

Results

The unique effects of space on taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic structure were consistently small. In contrast, landscape characteristics (i.e., environment) played an appreciable role in structuring bat communities. Spatially-structured landscape characteristics explained 84% of the variation in functional or phylogenetic dispersion, and the unique effects of landscape characteristics significantly explained 14% of the variation in species composition. Furthermore, variation in bat community structure was primarily due to differences in dispersion of species within functional or phylogenetic space along the gradient, rather than due to differences in functional or phylogenetic composition.

Discussion

Variation among bat communities was related to environmental mechanisms, especially niche-based (i.e., environmental) processes, rather than spatial mechanisms. High variation in functional or phylogenetic dispersion, as opposed to functional or phylogenetic composition, suggests that loss or gain of niche space is driving the progressive loss or gain of species with particular traits from communities along the human-modified gradient. Thus, environmental characteristics associated with landscape structure influence functional or phylogenetic aspects of bat communities by effectively altering the ways in which species partition niche space.

Differences in the impacts of formal and informal recreational trails on urban forest loss and tree structure

Recreational trails are one of the most common types of infrastructure used for nature-based activities such as hiking and mountain biking worldwide. Depending on their design, location, construction, maintenance and use, these trails differ in their environmental impacts. There are few studies, however, comparing the impacts of different trail types including between formal management-created trails and informal visitor-created trails. Although both types of trails can be found in remote natural areas, dense networks of them often occur in forests close to cities where they experience intense visitor use. To assess the relative impacts of different recreational trails in urban forests, we compared the condition of the trail surface, loss of forest strata and changes in tree structure caused by seven types of trails (total network 46.1 km) traversing 17 remnants of an endangered urban forest in Australia. After mapping and classifying all trails, we assessed their impact on the forest condition at 125 sites (15 sites per trail type, plus 15 control sites within undisturbed forest). On the trail sites, the condition of the trail surface, distance from the trail edge to four forest strata (litter, understory, midstorey and tree cover) and structure of the tree-line were assessed. Informal trails generally had poorer surface conditions and were poorly-designed and located. Per site, formal and informal trails resulted in similar loss of forest strata, with wider trails resulting in greater loss of forest. Because there were more informal trails, however, they accounted for the greatest cumulative forest loss. Structural impacts varied, with the widest informal trails and all formal hardened trails resulting in similar reductions in canopy cover and tree density but an increase in saplings. These structural impacts are likely a function of the unregulated and intense use of large informal trails, and disturbance from the construction and maintenance of formal trails. The results demonstrate that different types of recreational trails vary in the type and range of impacts they cause to forests. They highlight the importance of careful consideration towards management options when dealing with trail networks especially in areas of high conservation value.