The role of land use change in affecting ecosystem services and the ecological security pattern of the Hexi Regions, Northwest China

Advancing multiscale sustainable development in lake-dense regions: A dynamic management chain for ecosystem service supply-demand and ecological risks interactions

Dynamic management of lake-dense regions based on interactions between ecosystem service supply-demand (ESSD) and ecological risk (ER) is essential for sustainable development. This study integrates the ecosystem service value supply model, a land-population-economy-society demand model, and the landscape ER assessment to develop a comprehensive ESSD-ER framework for lake-dense regions. Bivariate spatial autocorrelation and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) models are applied to reveal the spatiotemporal interaction intensity between ESSD and ER. Subsequently, an integrated ESSD-ER sustainable management framework is constructed based on a six-quadrant model and dynamic change rate index. Applying this framework to the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomerations (MRYRUA) at multiscale, the results indicate: (1) A persistent mismatch existed in the study area, where ecosystem service supply remains lower than demand, with ER rising annually. (2) High ESSD-high ER clusters showed positive interactions within lake areas. Negative interactions intensify progressively from low-high clustered nearshore areas to high-low clustered inland forested areas. (3) MRYRUA comprised six management zones: optimal balance sustainable zones, potential balance sustainable zones, imbalanced improvement transitional zones, worsening imbalance transitional zones, risk alert transitional zones, and dual crisis unsustainable zones. At the macroscale, northern regions displayed higher unsustainable categories than southern regions, showing apparent spatial heterogeneity. Risk-alert transitional zones dominated (51.61 %), primarily distributed adjacent to water bodies. At the microscale, cropland-forest interlaced zones serve as optimal balance sustainable zones. Green industrial upgrading mechanisms are recommended in dual crisis unsustainable zones in northern regions. Southern regions should maintain their advantages in optimal and potential balance sustainable zones. These findings provide scientific guidance to achieve multiscale sustainable development in lake-dense regions.

Anthropogenic activities accelerate LULC conversion and only a sustainable development scenario is optimal for agro-pastoral ecotone development

Despite the ecological and socioeconomic importance of agro-pastoral ecotones, changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and their driving mechanisms are not comprehensively understood. In this study, a systematic framework for LULC assessment covering comprehensive timeframes was constructed for the Tabu watershed. Results demonstrated that a new process of LULC changes began in 1998, with a significant increase in farmland and decrease in grassland. The increase in dynamic degrees and structural variation coefficients indicated intensive and frequent changes in LULC. Conversion ratios between grassland and farmland exceeded 95%, and construction land encroached upon grassland. Grassland changes were driven mainly by natural factors based on the random forest regression, as well as changes in farmland and construction land. The influence of anthropogenic drivers on LULC became significant. Under the sustainable development scenario, the increase in grassland with a high fractional vegetation cover in 2034 was the most significant, the area of bare land decreased, the area of construction land steadily increased, and the reduction in farmland area was under control. Under this scenario, both socioeconomic development and ecosystem stability can be achieved. This study provides insights into regional land dynamics and provides systematic guidance for sustainable land management.

Spatial-temporal distribution of farmland occupation and compensation and its impact on ecological service value in China from 1990 to 2021

Land transformation during global urbanization has led to a sharp decrease in farmland, causing not only food security issues but also ecological problems. To address this issue, the Chinese government has implemented the Requisition-Compensation Balance Policy for Farmland (RCBF) in 1997. This policy effectively curbed the reduction of farmland, but the compensated land often comes from mountainous and desert areas, leading to fragmentation of farmland and subsequent ecological security issues. The balance between farmland requisition and compensation is closely related to ecological security. However, current research on farmland occupation and compensation is mostly based on farmland area. The area occupied and compensated for by farmland in different regions is inconsistent, and using only net increase or decrease in area to represent farmland occupation and compensation cannot accurately and fairly compare the degree of farmland occupation and compensation between regions. Therefore, this study has proposed a novel index to measure the balance of farmland requisition and compensation-the Farmland Requisition and Compensation Index (FOCI). FOCI can transform dimensional expressions that represent the area of farmland occupation and compensation into dimensionless expressions, namely scalars, which makes it possible to visually and fairly compare the degree of farmland occupation in each region. Then, this new index has been used to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of farmland requisition and compensation in China at the national and provincial levels over the past 30 years (1990-2021), as well as the impact of this change on the fragmentation of farmland landscape and ecological service value. The results indicate that (1) FOCI shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing at both national and provincial scales; (2) Provinces with increasing FOCI are mainly concentrated in the southeast and northwest regions, while significant decreases in FOCI are observed in the southwest region, indicating a shift of the FOCI center of gravity towards the southeast; (3) FOCI and farmland landscape fragmentation are significantly positively correlated spatially, suggesting that provinces with higher levels of farmland requisition and compensation also exhibit higher levels of farmland landscape fragmentation; (4) FOCI and ecological service value are significantly negatively correlated spatially, indicating that provinces with higher levels of farmland requisition and compensation have lower ecological service values, with these areas mainly concentrated in the northwest region of China. In general, FOCI has the advantage of eliminating the dimensional influence in different regions and could be a reliable alternative for evaluating the balance of farmland requisition and compensation between regions.

Optimizing land use spatial patterns to balance urban development and resource-environmental constraints: A case study of China's Central Plains Urban Agglomeration

The unprecedented urbanization of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA) has significantly improved human well-being but has also led to severe land degradation and environmental challenges. Spatial zoning is a crucial tool for advancing sustainable land management in urban agglomerations. However, spatial zoning has become increasingly challenging due to the diversity associated with future land-use changes and the vulnerability of the ecological environment. This study applies a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) neural network model to emphasize the dual pivotal role of future land-use scenarios and resource-environment carrying capacity in optimizing sustainable land management zoning. Focusing on the CPUA in China, the study reveals several key findings: (1) Under the natural evolution scenario, the proportion of cultivated land decreases from 58.76 % to 55.58 %, resulting in a reduction of 9146 km2, while construction land expands from 14.72 % to 21.96 %, with an increase of 23,100 km2 and an average annual growth rate of 1.17 %. (2) The resource-environment carrying capacity across the CPUA is generally low to medium, with an average index value of 35.28. Spatially, the surrounding areas concentrate higher carrying capacity, while the central regions exhibit lower values. The western, northern, and southern edge regions show relatively higher capacities. (3) Based on comprehensive assessments of land-use patterns, ecological quality, and resource-environment carrying capacity, the CPUA is divided into nine distinct sustainable land management zones. Each zone requires tailored strategies that consider its specific resource endowments, ecological conditions, agricultural productivity, and urban development potential. Coordinated infrastructure development and resource-sharing initiatives are essential for promoting sustainable land management throughout the urban agglomeration. The proposed zoning optimization strategy strikes a balance between urban development demands and resource-environment constraints, offering a practical framework for refining land management policies and advancing sustainable development goals in large urban agglomerations.

Land use and landscape pattern changes in the Fenhe River Basin, China

The composition and pattern of ecosystems play a crucial role in determining the overall condition and spatial variations of ecosystem services. In this study, we explored the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), six land use/land cover change (LULC) types, and their landscape patterns to reflect spatial-temporal dynamics from 2010 to 2020 in the upper and middle reaches of the Fenhe River Basin. The trend analysis of Mann-Kendall tests was used to assess the NDVI variation of each pixel over the past decade. Shannon's Diversity Index (SHDI) was used to quantify the complexity of the landscape pattern of local LULC. Meanwhile, the spatial-temporal dynamic variations of vegetation NDVI and six LULC types were illustrated using geographic mapping methods. The results were presented as follows: (1) From 2010 to 2020, vegetation cover increased, with an annual NDVI increment of 0.003 (P < 0.001). Spatially, there was a significant increasing trend in NDVI, particularly in high-altitude mountainous areas where the vegetation cover mostly consisted of forests or grasslands. However, there was no significant change in vegetation cover in the low-lying urban agglomeration area. (2) During the period from 2010 to 2020, there was a significant decrease in the area of water bodies and wetlands, the rate of decrease slowed from 2015 to 2020. Specifically, the percentage of decrease from 2010 to 2015 increased by more than 14%. This proportion exceeded 30% when compared to the final governmental ecological management goal set during the 13th Five-Year Plan Period (2016-2020). (3) During the same period, the SHDI of LULC exhibited heterogeneous characteristics. In the high-altitude areas near the river basin boundary, SHDI values were below 1.0. Conversely, in the low-altitude plains and urban areas with frequent human activities, SHDI values exceeded 1.0, reaching above 1.5 in urban areas. This study provides a scientific reference for the construction and management of the ecological environment in the Fenhe River Basin, along with practice insights for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.

Integrating revised DPSIR and ecological security patterns to assess the health of alpine grassland ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Alpine grassland ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) provide critical services but face threats from human activity and climate change. Ensuring ecosystem health is vital for sustainability and preserving ecosystem services and processes, especially in delicate ecosystems such as the Gannan alpine grasslands. However, there is currently a lack of a comprehensive model that integrates ecosystem structure, function, processes, and socioeconomic factors. This study proposes a comprehensive ecosystem health assessment approach that combines the revised driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework with ecological security patterns (ESPs), overcoming the limitations of previous models that focused primarily on ecosystem structure without sufficiently addressing dynamic ecosystem processes. This method aims to diagnose the health of the Gannan alpine grasslands on the QTP from 2000 to 2020. We found that in the context of global climate change, the ecological health was maintained at a relatively high level (covering 75.41 % of the area) in most areas of Gannan, whereas lower levels (12.09 %), were found in the northern areas of Gannan and southwestern areas of Maqu likely resulting from higher livestock density, increased population density, and weaker landscape connectivity. The results of the driver analysis showed that livestock inventory (with an influence Q-value of 0.70) significantly affected the health of the Gannan alpine grassland ecosystem, suggesting that sustainable livestock management is essential for maintaining ecological corridor connectivity, protecting core zones and promoting regional sustainability.

Construction and optimization of ecological corridors in coastal cities based on the perspective of "structure-function"

The contradiction between the demand of urban economic development and ecological environmental protection is becoming more and more prominent, and the reasonable construction of ecological corridors is of great significance for the protection of urban ecosystems. Taking Changle District of Fuzhou coastal city as an example, this study proposes an ecological source identification method from the perspective of "structure-function" by combining Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) and Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) methods, and constructs and optimizes ecological corridors by means of the model of Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) and Circuit Theory. The results show that: (1) a total of 20 ecological sources were extracted based on MSPA-RSEI; (2) a total of 31 ecological corridors were extracted based on Linkage Mapper, including 8 Level 1 corridors, 13 Level 2 corridors, and 10 Level 3 corridors; (3) the Pinch Point and Barrier Mapper software was utilized to identify 6.01 km2 and 2.59 km2, respectively, as Level 1 "pinch points" and barrier points within the study area. The land use types of these areas were as follows: The majority of "pinch points" were forested (60.72%), while the majority of barrier points were composed of construction land (55.27%), bare land (17.27%), and cultivated land (13.90%). (4) the optimal width of the corridor was determined by using the buffer zone method and gradient analysis: 30 m for the Level 1 corridor, 60 m for the Level 2 and Level 3 corridors, and the average current density before and after the construction of the eco-corridor was increased from 0.1881 to 0.4992. The results of the study can provide a reference for the decision-making of the ecological construction of the Changle District and the coastal urban areas of eastern China.

Evaluating the influence of human disturbance on the ecosystem service scarcity value: an insightful exploration in Guangxi region

Investigating how human disturbance affects the ecosystem service scarcity value (ESSV) is crucial for maintaining ecosystem stability and achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs). This study separately assessed ESSV and human disturbance in Guangxi from 1990 to 2020, revealing their spatiotemporal distribution differences over time. The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is used to analyze the interrelationship between the two, with the purpose of filling the gap in current research. The main results are as follows: (1) From 1990 to 2020, ESSV in Guangxi increased significantly and reached its highest value in 2020. Under the four scenarios, ESSV increased significantly in Scenarios 2 and 4. Spatially, high ESSV was mainly distributed in some cities in central, southern, western and northeastern Guangxi. (2) The index of human disturbance in Guangxi continued to increase during the study period, with a high level of human disturbance in the central urban area and a low level of human disturbance in the peripheral areas, which were distributed in a radial pattern. (3) According to the EKC, the relationship between ESSV and human disturbance in Guangxi followed an inverted N-shaped curve. In addition, after 2010, the coupling and coordination level was dominated by "slightly balanced development", and the area of "ESSV significantly lagged" gradually increased. This study provides a new perspective for understanding ESSV and its relationship with human disturbances, and provides an important reference for the sustainable management of ecosystems and the formulation of ecological conservation policies.

Assessment and forecasting of water ecological security and obstacle factor diagnosis in the Hexi Corridor of Northwest China

The water ecological security pattern is a core factor. A scientific, accurate, and practical evaluation of water ecological security provides a theoretical basis for regional water ecological management. Using water resource data from five cities in the Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province (Jiuquan (JQ), Jiayuguan (JYG), Zhangye (ZY), Jinchang (JC), and Wuwei (WW)) from 2006 to 2021, a water ecological security evaluation index system based on the PSR (pressure-state-response) framework was constructed, covering 27 factors related to water resources, socio-economics, and the ecological environment. The main obstacle factors of water ecological security were identified using the obstacle degree model, and the grey GM(1,1) model was employed to predict water ecological security. Results indicated that the comprehensive assessment index of water ecology in the Hexi Corridor increased from 2006 to 2021, showing a transition from relatively unsafe (0.319) to basic safety and then to relatively safe (0.672). The pressure and response systems were the main limiting factors affecting water ecological security in the Hexi Corridor. After a slight decline in 2008, the overall spatial distribution continued to rise, with WW City and ZY City leading since 2016. ZY had a higher safety grade proportion (25%) compared to other areas in the Hexi region. The pressure system was the most significant obstacle to water ecological security after 2006. Prediction results indicated that the comprehensive evaluation index of water ecological security would continue to rise annually from 2022 to 2031, reaching a very safe level by 2025. The evaluation results provide a scientific basis for ecological security and risk decision-making in the study area.

Landscape ecological risk assessment and driving factor analysis in southwest china

Landscape ecological risk assessment and ecological network construction are of great significance for optimizing territorial functions and reducing regional ecological risks. Based on the production-living-ecological space perspective, this study evaluated the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of landscape ecological risk and its driving mechanism in Southwest China and constructed a landscape ecological network. The results showed that the proportions of ecological space, production space and living space to the total space in 2020 were 74.35%, 24.55% and 1.10%, respectively. The industrial production space had the highest growth rate, increasing by 9.8 times from 2000 to 2020. During the study period, the average value of the ecological risk index ranged from 0.2 to 0.21 for the whole landscape. The geographical distribution of ecological risk zones showed significant differences, with risk zones showing a transition from high-risk and low-risk to medium-risk zones. A total of 105 ecological corridors and 156 ecological nodes have been constructed in the 2020 ecological network. The northeastern part of the study area needs better landscape connectivity and should be focused on ecological protection. Random Forest (RF) and Geodetector modeling showed that anthropogenic disturbance and land use levels have strong explanatory power for the evolution of ecological risk in the landscape. The interactions between anthropogenic disturbance, natural climate and regional economy are essential factors in the spatiotemporal differentiation of ecological risk. This study provides scientific references for ecological risk research and the promotion of high-quality development in Southwest China.

Multi-scenario analysis and optimization strategy of ecological security pattern in the Weihe river basin

For many years, the Weihe River Basin (WRB) has struggled to achieve a balance between ecological protection and economic growth. Constructing an Ecological Security Pattern (ESP) is extremely important for ensuring ecological security (ES). This study employed a coupling of multi-objective programming (MOP) and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to project land use change (LUCC) in 2040 across three scenarios. Leveraging circuit theory, we generated ecological corridors and identified key ecological nodes, enabling a comparative analysis of ESPs within the WRB. The main results showed that: (1) The Ecological Protection (EP) scenario showed the highest proportions of forestland, grassland, and water, indicating an optimal ecological environment. Conversely, the Economic Development (ED) scenario features the greatest proportion of construction land, particularly evident in the rapid urban expansion. The Natural Development (ND) scenario exhibits a more balanced change, aligning closely with historical trends. (2) The ecological source areas in the EP scenario is 13,856.70 km2, with the largest and most intact patch area. The ecological source patches that have been identified in the ED scenario exhibit fragmentation and dispersion, encompassing a total area of 8018.82 km2. The ecological source areas in the ND scenario is most similar to the actual situation in 2020, encompassing 8474.99 km2. (3) The EP scenario demonstrates minimal landscape fragmentation. The ED scenario presents a more intricate corridor pattern, hindering species and energy flow efficiency. The ND scenario is more similar to the actual distribution in 2020. Protecting and restoring key ecological nodes, and ensuring the integrity and connectivity of ecological sources are crucial for ESP optimization in various scenarios. Combining all results, we categorize the WRB's spatial pattern into "three zones, three belts, and one center" and offer strategic suggestions for ecological preservation, promoting sustainable local ecological and socioeconomic development.

Assessing land-use changes and carbon storage: a case study of the Jialing River Basin, China

Land-use change is the main driver of carbon storage change in terrestrial ecosystems. Currently, domestic and international studies mainly focus on the impact of carbon storage changes on climate, while studies on the impact of land-use changes on carbon storage in complex terrestrial ecosystems are few. The Jialing River Basin (JRB), with a total area of ~ 160,000 km2, diverse topography, and elevation differences exceeding 5 km, is an ideal case for understanding the complex interactions between land-use change and carbon storage dynamics. Taking the JRB as our study area, we analyzed land-use changes from 2000 to 2020. Subsequently, we simulated land-use patterns for business-as-usual (BAU), cropland protection (CP), and ecological priority (EP) scenarios in 2035 using the PLUS model. Additionally, we assessed carbon storage using the InVEST model. This approach helps us to accurately understand the carbon change processes in regional complex terrestrial ecosystems and to formulate scientifically informed land-use policies. The results revealed the following: (1) Cropland was the most dominant land-use type (LUT) in the region, and it was the only LUT experiencing net reduction, with 92.22% of newly designated construction land originating from cropland. (2) In the JRB, total carbon storage steadily decreased after 2005, with significant spatial heterogeneity. This pattern was marked by higher carbon storage levels in the north and lower levels in the south, with a distinct demarcation line. The conversion of cropland to construction land is the main factor driving the reduction in carbon storage. (3) Compared with the BAU and EP scenarios, the CP scenario demonstrated a smaller reduction in cropland area, a smaller addition to construction land area, and a lower depletion in the JRB total carbon storage from 2020 to 2035. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of the PLUS and InVEST models in analyzing complex ecosystems and offers data support for quantitatively assessing regional ecosystem services. Strict adherence to the cropland replenishment task mandated by the Chinese government is crucial to increase cropland areas in the JRB and consequently enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of its ecosystem. Such efforts are vital for ensuring the food and ecological security of the JRB, particularly in the pursuit of the "dual-carbon" objective.

A new multivariate index for ecological security assessment in the China-Myanmar border region

The coordination of development efforts and ecological conservation in China's border regions is a significant challenge due to the overlap of biodiversity hotspots, ecologically fragile zones, and impoverished areas. Achieving the harmonious integration of ecological preservation and economic development relies on the fundamental assessment of ecological security (ES). However, comprehensive assessments of ES in border regions remain limited. This study introduces a new index, the multivariate ecological security index (MESI), which integrates ecosystem vigor, organization, elasticity, services and risk. Here, the MESI was utilized to assess the temporal and spatial changes in ES and its associated impact factors in the China-Myanmar border region (CMBR) from 2000 to 2020. The MESI provides a clear representation of the actual ES status in the CMBR, exhibiting a significant correlation with the eco-environmental quality index (EEQI; p < 0.01). The ES status exhibited notable spatial heterogeneity in the CMBR, consisting primarily of both relatively safe and safe levels, which accounted for approximately 85% of the total area. From 2000 to 2020, the CMBR experienced a gradual improvement in ES status, with the area experiencing an increase in the ES level accounting for 23.41% of the total area, which exceeded the proportion of the area experiencing a decrease in the ES level (4.71%). The combined impact of multiple factors exerted a greater influence on ES than did individual factors alone. Notably, human factors increasingly influenced the ES status during the study period. The results of this study provide valuable insights for ecological preservation and sustainable management in the CMBR, and the MESI can be extended to assess the ES of other regions.

Identification of ecological security patterns of alpine wetland grasslands based on landscape ecological risks: A study in Zoigê County

Climate change and human activities have increased ecological risks and degraded ecosystem functions in alpine wetland grassland regions, where ecological security remains largely unexplored. The construction of ecological security patterns (ESP) can help to synchronize regional ecological security and sustainable development and provide ideas to address these challenges. This article determines the current ESP of Zoigê County, China, by analyzing the spatial and temporal characteristics of landscape ecological risk (LER) and generating an ecological network by combining the InVEST model, the landscape connectivity index, and the circuit theory model. Management zoning and targeted conservation recommendations are proposed. The results indicate that the region has significant spatial heterogeneity in IER. Ecological risk exposure is increasing, with high values mainly concentrated in the central part of the region. Meanwhile, ecological protection areas were identified, which included 2578.44 km2 of ecological sources, 71 key ecological corridors, 25 potential ecological corridors, 4 river ecological corridors, 66 pinch points, and 58 barriers. This study provides a valuable reference for the ecological development of Zoigê County, as well as insights into the formation of ESP in other alpine wetland grassland regions.

Stability in change: building a stable ecological security pattern in Northeast China under climate and land use changes

Climate change and land use change caused by human activities have a profound impact on ecological security. Simulating the spatio-temporal changes in ecosystem service value and ecological security patterns under different carbon emission scenarios in the future is of great significance for formulating sustainable development policies. This study quantified the four major ecosystem services (habitat quality, water retention, soil erosion, and carbon storage) in Northeast China (NC), identified ecological source areas, and constructed a stable ecological security pattern. The results show that the spatial patterns of soil erosion, carbon storage, water retention, and habitat quality, the four major ecosystem services in NC, are relatively stable in the next 30 years, and there is no significant difference from the current spatial pattern distribution. The SSP1-2.6 carbon emission scenario is a priority model for the development of NC in the next 30 years. In this carbon emission scenario, the NC has the largest ecological resources (191,177 km2) and the least comprehensive resistance value (850.006 × 10-4). At the same time, the relative resistance of the corridor in this scenario is the smallest, and the area of the mandatory reserve pinch points is the least. The ecological corridors in the SSP1-2.6 scenario form a network distribution among the ecological sources, connecting several large ecological sources as a whole. This study fills the knowledge gap in building a stable ecological security pattern in NC under the background of global change, and provides a scientific basis for the decision-making of regional ecological security and land resource management.

Spatial response of urban land use intensity to ecological networks: a case study of Xi'an Metropolitan Region, China

In the face of the persistent degradation of ecological environments and fragmentation of ecological networks brought about by rapid urbanization, this study focuses on examining the interaction between urban land use intensity and ecological networks in the Xi'an Metropolitan Region (XAMR), China, and their impact on ecological equilibrium and sustainable development. By comprehensively evaluating the changes in land use intensity in XAMR from 2010 to 2020, the aim is to underscore the pivotal role of ecological networks in maintaining urban ecological balance and promoting sustainable development. The findings indicate a transition in land use intensity in the XAMR from low to high concentration, reflecting an intensification in land resource utilization during urbanization. However, the establishment and management of ecological networks can significantly enhance urban ecological security and biodiversity. Notably, this research identified crucial ecological corridors and source areas, augmenting the connectivity of urban green infrastructure and providing vital support for urban biodiversity. Additionally, a significant finding of this study is the spatial spillover effects generated by socioeconomic factors such as the proportion of tertiary and secondary industries and per capita GDP through the ecological network, which have profound impacts on land use intensity in the surrounding areas. These insights offer a novel understanding of the complex interactions within urban ecosystems, emphasizing the importance of incorporating ecological network construction in urban planning. Overall, through a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between the ecological network and land use intensity in the XAMR, this study proposes new directions for urban ecosystem management and land use planning, highlighting the significance of scientific ecological network planning and management in achieving long-term sustainable development in urbanization processes.

Differential responses of ecosystem stability to climatic and anthropogenic factors in connected and isolated lake basins on the Yangtze River

Maintaining optimal ecological security in the Yangtze River-connected and isolated lake basins is of great significance to national projects involving Yangtze River protection. Ecosystem stability and associated factors are important components of ecological security in these basins. However, few studies have focused on ecosystem stability and its driving factors over long periods in the Yangtze River Basin. In this study, a remote sensing index was used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation in the ecosystem stability of the Dongting Lake Basin (DTL), Poyang Lake Basin (PYL), and the isolated Chaohu Lake Basin (CHL) and Taihu Lake Basin (THL) in the Yangtze River over the period 2000-2022 to determine the potential affecting factors. The results showed fluctuations in the ecosystem stability of the DTL and PYL, while a V-shape was observed for the CHL and THL during the same period; the closer to the lake, the weaker the stability of the ecosystem, especially in the DTL and PYL. Moreover, the ecosystem stability was greater in the DTL and PYL than in the CHL and THL. The spillover effect of anthropogenic activities on the ecosystem stability of the four basins and the direct effect of temperature have the greatest effect on the ecosystem stability. Specifically, the ecosystem stability index for the area around the DTL and PYL decreased with increasing human interference, whereas the opposite was observed in the CHL and THL. The effect of temperature was negative for the ecosystem stability of DTL and PYL and significantly positive for CHL and THL, at a level of 0.01 %. The findings of this study provide significant information for targeted ecological restoration of the Yangtze River Basin.

Future land use prediction and optimization strategy of Zhejiang Greater Bay Area coupled with ecological security multi-scenario pattern

The land use changes driven by human activities press a incredible menace to zonal ecological security. As the most active urban cluster, the uncontrolled expansion of cities in the bay area exerts enormous pressure on the ecosystem. Therefore, from the perspective of ecological conservation, exploring future land use optimization patterns and spatial structure is extremely essential for the long-term thriving of the bay area. On this basis, this research integrated the System Dynamics model (SD) as the quantity forecast model and the PLUS model as the spatial emulation model and established the Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) Simulation Framework by setting the constraints of Ecological Security Multi-Scenario Patterns (ESMP). By setting four scenarios in future, that is, Business As Usual (BAU), Priority of Ecological Protection (PEP), Balanced Development Scenario (BD), and Priority of Urban development (PUD), this research predicts LUCC in the Zhejiang Greater Bay Area (ZGBA) in 2035 and explored land use optimization patterns. The results indicate that by 2035, under the scenarios of BAU, BD, and PUD, the construction land will observably grow by 38.86%, 19.63%, and 83.90%, respectively, distributed mainly around the Hangzhou Bay Area, Taizhou Bay Area, and Wenzhou Bay Area, primarily achieved by sacrificing ecologically sensitive lands such as forests to achieve regional high economic growth. Under PEP, the growth of construction land retards, and forest experiences net growth (11.27%), with better landscape connectivity and more cohesive patches compared to other scenarios. Combining regional planning and analysis at the city scale, Hangzhou Bay area (Hangzhou, Huzhou, Jiaxing, Shaoxing, Ningbo) can adopt the BD development scenario, while Zhoushan, Taizhou, Wenzhou and Fuyang County of Hangzhou can adopt the PEP development scenario. This research furnishes a novel mechanism for optimizing land use pattern in ecological security perspective and offers scientific guidance for land resource management and spatial planning in ZGBA.

Ecosystem service valuation and multi-scenario simulation in the Ebinur Lake Basin using a coupled GMOP-PLUS model

The Ebinur Lake Basin is an ecologically sensitive area in an arid region. Investigating its land use and land cover (LULC) change and assessing and predicting its ecosystem service value (ESV) are of great importance for the stability of the basin's socioeconomic development and sustainable development of its ecological environment. Based on LULC data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, we assessed the ESV of the Ebinur Lake Basin and coupled the grey multi-objective optimization model with the patch generation land use simulation model to predict ESV changes in 2035 under four scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU) development, rapid economic development (RED), ecological protection (ELP), and ecological-economic balance (EEB). The results show that from 1990 to 2020, the basin was dominated by grassland (51.23%) and unused land (27.6%), with a continuous decrease in unused land and an increase in cultivated land. In thirty years, the total ESV of the study area increased from 18.62 billion to 67.28 billion yuan, with regulation and support services being the dominant functions. By 2035, cultivated land increased while unused land decreased in all four scenarios compared with that in 2020. The total ESV in 2035 under the BAU, RED, ELP, and EEB scenarios was 68.83 billion, 64.47 billion, 67.99 billion, and 66.79 billion yuan, respectively. In the RED and EEB scenarios, ESV decreased by 2.81 billion and 0.49 billion yuan, respectively. In the BAU scenario, provisioning and regulation services increased by 6.05% and 2.93%, respectively. The ELP scenario, focusing on ecological and environmental protection, saw an increase in ESV for all services. This paper can assist policymakers in optimizing land use allocation and provide scientific support for the formulation of land use strategies and sustainable ecological and environmental development in the inland river basins of arid regions.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of wetlands and their future multi-scenario simulation in the Yellow River Delta, China

Wetlands, known as the "kidney of the earth", are an important component of global ecosystems. However, they have been changed under multiple stresses in recent decades, which is especially true in the Yellow River Delta. This study examined the spatiotemporal change characteristics of wetlands in the Yellow River Delta from 1980 to 2020 and predicted detailed wetland changes from 2020 to 2030 with the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model under four scenarios, namely, the natural development scenario (NDS), the farmland protection scenario (FPS), the wetland protection scenario (WPS) and the harmonious development scenario (HDS). The results showed that wetlands increased 709.29 km2 from 1980 to 2020 overall, and the wetland types in the Yellow River Delta changed divergently. Over the past four decades, the tidal flats have decreased, whereas the reservoirs and ponds have increased. The gravity center movement of wetlands differed among the wetland types, with artificial wetlands moving to the northwest and natural wetlands moving to the south. The movement distance of the gravity center demonstrated apparent phase characteristics, and an abrupt change occurred from 2005 to 2010. The PLUS model was satisfactory, with an overall accuracy (OA) value greater than 83.48 % and an figure of merit (FOM) value greater than 0.1164. From 2020 to 2030, paddy fields and tidal flats decreased, whereas natural water, marshes and reservoirs and ponds increased under the four scenarios. The WPS was a relatively ideal scenario for wetlands, and the HDS was an alternative scenario for wetland restoration and food production. In the future, more attention should be paid to restoring natural wetlands to prevent further degradation in the Yellow River Delta. This study provides insights into new understandings of historical and future changes in wetlands and may have implications for wetland ecosystem protection and sustainable development.

Ecological security warning in Central Asia: Integrating ecosystem services protection under SSPs-RCPs scenarios

Ecological security patterns (ESPs) are designed to enhance ecosystem structure and functionality while preserving vital ecosystem services (ESs). This study not only integrated the ES trade-offs related to ecological security warning, but also considered the effects of future climate changes and human activities on ESPs. By combining the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE), the revised wind erosion equation (RWEQ), the dry sedimentation (DS) model, the recreation opportunity map (ROM) and the integrated valuation of ESs and trade-offs (InVEST) model, this study projected provisioning services, regulation services and cultural services in Central Asia (CA) for historical periods (1995-2014) and future scenarios (2021-2099). An ecological security early-warning (source - corridor - barriers) framework was constructed based on the protection of ESs under the SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The ordered weighted averaging method (OWA) was applied to this framework to identify ecological sources. The Minimum cumulative resistance model (MCR) and circuit theory were used to construct ecological corridors and barriers. Our results revealed that ES hotspot areas will decrease by 11.75 % to 16.42 % in CA under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios. Under the ecological warning framework, the ecological source warning area will reach 792 km2-1942 km2 and 6591 km2-17,465 km2 under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. In particular, in the 2050s under the SSP245 scenario, the number of key ecological corridor warnings will exceed 50 % of the total number of corridors. We found that ecological barrier warnings will mainly be distributed in desert areas with low vegetation coverage in southwestern CA. Building upon the reorganization of ESs within the ESP framework, we propose an ecological early warning strategy referred to as "one axis, two belts, two cores, and three zones". This novel approach aims to enhance our ability to predict and respond to ecological threats and challenges.

Incorporating network topology and ecosystem services into the optimization of ecological network: A case study of the Yellow River Basin

Human activity-induced landscape fragmentation seriously affects regional connectivity and biodiversity and hinders human well-being and sustainable development. These effects can be mitigated by the construction of ecological networks (ENs), but building extensive ENs requires cross-regional planning and coordination. Since ecosystems in different regions provide varying benefits to humans, optimizing ENs based on the quality of ecosystem services (ESs) is an effective way to rapidly improve regional landscape connectivity. In this study, we constructed an EN in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) according to landscape ecology and complex network theory, examined the network topology, measured three ESs using the InVEST model, and optimized the EN based on the coupling of EN topology and ES quality. In the YRB, the biodiversity index and carbon storage capacity were relatively higher and invariable. However, the wind-breaking and sand-fixing index was poorer, but it increased by 146 % during the study period. The number of ecological patches was roughly 48, accounting for about 40 % of the YRB region. From 1995 to 2020, the average ecological resistance decreased by 29 %, and the average number of corridors was 99, but the average corridor length first increased and then decreased. The number and area of ecological pinch points and barriers changed significantly. The EN topology strongly correlated with biodiversity and wind-breaking and sand-fixing, but not with carbon storage. In the face of random attacks, the optimized EN demonstrated significantly greater connectivity robustness. Under deliberate attacks, it exhibited better resilience and buffering power when the percentage of attacking nodes is in the 30 %-80 % range. For the ecological patches within a certain range of the attacking node, appropriate development and planning can be carried out in the future, while for the patches outside the range, strict ecological protection measures need to be implemented. This study provides theoretical references for improving EN planning efficiency and promoting synergistic cooperation in the YRB.

Thriving arid oasis urban agglomerations: Optimizing ecosystem services pattern under future climate change scenarios using dynamic Bayesian network

The effects of global climate change and human activities are anticipated to significantly impact ecosystem services (ESs), particularly in urban agglomerations of arid regions. This paper proposes a framework integrating the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), system dynamics (SD) model, patch generation land use simulation (PLUS) model, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model for predicting land use change and optimizing ESs spatial patterns that is built upon the SSP-RCP scenarios from CMIP6. This framework is applied to the oasis urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang (UANSTM), China. The findings indicate that both the SD model and PLUS model can accurately forecast the distribution of future land use. The SD model shows a relative error of less than 2.32%, while the PLUS model demonstrates a Kappa coefficient of 0.89. The land use pattern displays obvious spatial heterogeneity under different climate scenarios. The expansion of cultivated land and construction land is the main form of land use change in UANSTM in the future. The DBN model proficiently simulates the interactive relationships between ESs and diverse factors. The classification error rates for net primary productivity (NPP), habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY), and soil retention (SR) are 20.04%, 3.47%, 4.45%, and 13.42%, respectively. The prediction and diagnosis of DBN determine the optimal ESs development scenario and the optimal ESs region in the study area. It is found that the majority of ESs in UANSTM are predominantly influenced by natural factors with the exception of HQ. The socio-economic development plays a minor role in such urban agglomerations. This study offers significant insights that can contribute to the fields of ecological protection and land use planning in arid urban agglomerations worldwide.

Integrating land-sea coordination into construction of an ecological security pattern for urban agglomeration: a case study in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

The construction of ecological security pattern (ESP) is of great scientific significance for solving the problem of habitat fragmentation in urban environment. However, previous studies mainly focused on the ESP in land area, leaving the sea area to be ignored. This study took the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) and its offshore area as an example and integrated the land-sea coordination into the construction of ESP based on the minimum resistance model, gravity model, and graph theory centrality. The results showed that there are 171 and 56 ecological sources for land area and offshore area, accounting for 31.46% and 21.51% of total area, respectively. Twenty-four important ecological corridors with a total length of 2738.05 km were identified in GBA, and the width is proposed to be less than 100 m. Moreover, the α, β, and γ index of the ecological network in the study area is 0.19, 1.33, and 0.5, respectively, indicating that the ecological network structure is complex and the connectivity between ecological nodes is good. The ecological restoration area includes 286.6 km2 of ecological pinch points and 140.44 km2 of ecological barrier. The overall ESP of the study area is "one ring, two belts, and four zones." The main body of the area with a superior ecological environment is distributed in a ring-like pattern near the outer edge of the study area, and two belts (important ecological corridor and ecological corridor) are distributed in a network. According to the ecological characteristics, the study area was divided into four zones: ecological preservation areas, ecological restoration areas, limited construction areas, and optimized construction areas. The ESP established herein institute provides a reference for the revision of ecological space control and optimization measures in the GBA. It also provides effective and systematic means to solve ecological problems in the current territorial spatial planning and territorial ecological restoration of coastal urban agglomeration.

Understanding ecological civilization in China: From political context to science

China's concept of "ecological civilization" can be understood as a new system of development and governance based on the perspective of political decision-making. Environmental management, ecological restoration, and green development are its primary principles-distinctly different from industrial and agricultural-oriented civilizations. In this paper, we evaluate the evolution of political connotations of the ecological civilization concept in China over the past 15 years through a textual analysis approach. Additionally, we systematically outline an ecological civilization indicator system and analyze its evolutionary process, applicable scales, and role in guiding the implementation of the ecological civilization concept. Eco-civilization demonstration sites and experiences are also discussed, followed by a review of academic research and policy-making responses. Finally, we propose different perspectives on the outlook for the future of ecological civilization development in China.

The response of ecological security to land use change in east and west subtropical China

Regional land use change and ecological security have received considerable attention in recent years. The rapid economic development of Kunming and Fuzhou has resulted in environmental damage such as water pollution and urban heat island effect. It is thus important to conduct a comparative analysis of the ecological security response to land use/land cover change (LUCC) in different natural zones. Using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, random forest and support vector machine methods were used to classify land cover types in the study area, after which the ArcGIS platform was used to analyze LUCC. The driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model and entropy weight method were used to construct an ecological security evaluation system, and gray correlation was used to compare the ecological security responses to LUCC in Kunming and Fuzhou. The findings revealed that: (1) The average dynamic degrees of comprehensive land use in Kunming and Fuzhou from 1995 to 2020 were 1.05% and 0.55%, respectively; (2) From 1995 to 2020, the ecological security index values for Kunming and Fuzhou increased from 0.42 to 0.52 and from 0.36 to 0.68, respectively, indicating that Fuzhou's index is rising more rapidly; and (3)There is a strong correlation between LUCC and ecological security, the correlation between the woodland and the ecological security index is very strong in both places. The expansion of construction land may be an important reason for the reduced ecological security level in Fuzhou City, while water resources have a significant impact on the ecological security level of Kunming City.

Evolution and spatial reconstruction of rural settlements based on composite features of agglomeration effect and ecological effects in the Hexi Corridor, Northwest China

Rural reconstruction plays a pivotal role in the revitalization of rural areas and the development of regions. Understanding the pattern and direction of rural settlement reconstruction is crucial for effectively coordinating urban and rural development, as well as promoting regional rural revitalization. The present study proposes a novel approach to elucidate the evolution and spatial reconstruction of rural settlements by integrating features of agglomeration effect and ecological effect. By employing GIS spatial analysis technology and ecosystem service value modeling, the research analyzes the combined spatial agglomeration and ecological value characteristics of rural settlements in an arid oasis area, specifically focusing on the Hexi Corridor. Based on the analysis, the study identifies specific rural settlement reconstruction zoning and directions for optimization, considering rural settlement accessibility. The study reveals three key findings: (1) There are significant differences in the scale density and spatial distribution of rural settlements across the Hexi Corridor. (2) The overall ecological environment quality is good, and there is significant spatial differentiation in the ecosystem service value, influenced by topographic factors. (3) The optimal layout mode for rural settlements in the Hexi Corridor is the combination type of 'higher-ecological higher-density'. Based on the combined agglomeration effect and ecological effect features, the research determines the reconstruction scope of alienated rural settlements. Additionally, four predominant reconstruction modes are identified: urban agglomeration type, central village construction type, internal coordination type, and ecological protection type. The study proposes viable reconstruction paths for rural settlements based on these modes.

Linking ecosystem service flow to water-related ecological security pattern: A methodological approach applied to a coastal province of China

Water security is a critical concern due to intensifying anthropogenic activities and climate change. Delineating a water-related ecological security pattern can help to optimize spatial configuration, which in turn can inform sustainable water management. However, the methodology remains unclear. In this study, we developed a framework linking ecosystem service flow to water-related ecological security pattern; hence, we identified the sources, sinks, key corridors, and vulnerable nodes in Fujian Province, China. Our results revealed that the sources were located inland at high altitudes with a decreasing area trend in the south and an increasing area trend in the north, whereas the sinks were spread in coastal areas and exhibited a decreasing trend with relatively stable spatial distribution. The water-related ecological security has degraded as represented by a decreasing ecological supply-demand ratio over the last 30 years. Key corridors were identified in 17.12% of the rivers, and 22.5% of the vulnerable nodes were recognized as early warning nodes. Climate variability affected source distribution, while anthropogenic activities drove sink dynamics. These findings have important implications including landscape pattern planning and sustainable water management in the context of accelerated land use/cover and climate changes.

Integrating Landscape Ecological Risks and Ecosystem Service Values into the Ecological Security Pattern Identification of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration

Urban agglomerations are the main form of China's future promotion of new urbanization development. Nevertheless, their accelerated expansion and development are increasingly threatening the security of regional ecosystems. The identification and optimization of ecological safety patterns (ESPs) is the fundamental spatial way to guarantee the ecological safety of urban circles and realize the sustainable development of the socio-economic and ecological environment. Nevertheless, from the perspective of urban green, low-carbon, and ecological restoration, regional safety evaluation still lacks a complete framework integrating ecological elements and social and natural indicators. Moreover, the evaluation method of ESPs also has a lack of judgment on the long-term change dynamics of regional landscape ecological risks and ecosystem service values. Thus, we proposed a new regional ecological security evaluation system based on ecosystem service value (ESV) and landscape ecological risk (LER), using the Wuhan urban agglomeration (WUA) as the research object. This study analyzed LER and ESV's spatial and temporal changes over nearly 40 years from 1980 to 2020. LER and LSV were used as ecological elements combined with natural and human-social elements to jointly model the resistance surface of the landscape pattern. Applying the minimum cumulative resistance model (MCR), we identified green ecological corridors, constructed the ESPs of WUA, and proposed optimization measures. Our results show that: (1) The proportion of higher- and high-ecological-risk areas in WUA has decreased from 19.30% to 13.51% over the past 40 years. Over time, a "low-high-low" hierarchical distribution characteristic centered on Wuhan city was gradually formed in the east, south, and north; the total value of ecosystem services increased from CNY1110.998 billion to CNY1160.698 billion. The ESV was higher in the northeastern, southern, and central parts of the area. (2) This study selected 30 ecological source areas with a total area of about 14,374 km2 and constructed and identified 24 ecological corridors and 42 ecological nodes, forming a multi-level ecological network optimization pattern with intertwined points, lines, and surfaces, increasing the connectivity of the ecological network and improving the ecological security level of the study area to a large extent, which is of great significance to promote the ecological priority and green-rise strategy of WUA and the high-quality development path of the green ecological shelter.

Determining the ecological security pattern and important ecological regions based on the supply-demand of ecosystem services: A case study of Xuzhou City, China

The supply-demand for ecosystem services (ESs) is the bridge between ecological security patterns (ESPs) and human wellbeing. This study proposed a research framework of ESP of "supply-demand-corridor-node" and took Xuzhou, China, as a research case, providing a new perspective for the construction of ESPs. The framework was divided into four sections: identifying the ecological source based on the ESs supply; utilizing multi-source economic-social data to characterize the demand of ESs and constructing a resistance surface; defining the ecological corridor in the study area by employing the Linkage Mapper; and identifying crucial ecological protection/restoration areas along the ecological corridor. The results showed that the area of the supply source of ESs in Xuzhou City is 573.89 km², accounting for 5.19% of the city's total area. The spatial distribution of 105 ecological corridors revealed that there were multiple and dense ecological corridors in the middle of the city, but few in the northwest and southeast. A total of 14 ecological protection areas were located primarily in the south of the urban area, and 10 ecological restoration areas were located primarily in the middle and north of the urban area, with a total area of 4.74 km². The findings of this article will be useful in developing ESPs and determining important ecological protection/restoration areas in Xuzhou, China. The research framework could potentially be used in other areas.

Progress of Ecological Restoration Research Based on Bibliometric Analysis

With the deterioration of the global/regional ecological environment, ecological restoration plays an important role in sustainable development. However, due to the differences in research methods, objectives, and perspectives, the research results are highly diverse. This makes it necessary to sort the publications related to ecological restoration, clarify the research status, grasp the research hotspots, and predict the future research trends. Here, 23,755 articles from the core database of Web of Science were retrieved, and bibliometric analysis was carried out to understand the global ecological restoration research progress from 1990 to 2022 from a macro perspective, with the aim to determine the future development direction. The results are as follows. (1) From 1990 to 2022, the number of publications in the field of ecological restoration constantly increased, and the fluctuation of the average annual citations increased. The most important articles were published in high-ranking journals. (2) Ecological restoration covers a wide range of research areas, including biodiversity, ecosystem services, climate change, land use, and ecological restoration theories and technologies. The four main hotspots in this field are heavy metal removal, soil microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen concentrations, grassland ecological restoration, and evaluation framework and modeling of ecological restoration's effects. Currently, studies focus on river basin remediation, heavy metal removal, and forest restoration. (3) Future ecological restoration research should strengthen the multi-object aspect and multi-scale ecological restoration research, improve the ecological restoration effect evaluation system, and incorporate social and economic issues. This study identified current research hotspots and predicted potential future research directions, providing a scientific reference for future studies in the field of ecological restoration.

Construction of Ecological Security Pattern and Identification of Ecological Restoration Zones in the City of Changchun, China

Identification of crucial regions in need of ecological conservation and restoration based on ecological security patterns is of utmost importance for ecological restoration across national land space with regard to China's promotion of ecological civilization. Using Changchun, the capital of northeast China, as an illustration, the study chooses ecological sources based on the importance of ecosystem services, builds an ecological security pattern using circuit theory, and organizes critical regions for ecological conservation and restoration. The findings reveal that the 20 ecological sources chosen based on ecosystem services are more concentrated on the eastern side of the city, whereas the western side of the city has a smaller overall area; 41 ecological corridors show a network distribution, among which the southeast is relatively densely distributed; 31 ecological pinch points and 15 ecological barrier points are also identified. Prioritized restoration zones, prioritized protection zones, key conservation zones, and general conservation zones were the four different types of ecological restoration regions identified by the study. Each district's prioritized restoration zones in the main metropolitan area are larger than the others; Gongzhuling's priority protection zones are the largest, and Yushu's natural substrate is the best. According to the grading, targeted solutions are suggested, offering helpful advice for the improvement of ecological patterns and ecological restoration of the aforementioned national areas.