Climate change has increased the global threats posed by three ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in the Anthropocene

Ectoparasites enhance survival by suppressing host exploration and limiting dispersal

Parasites enhance their fitness by manipulating host dispersal. However, the strategies used by ectoparasites to influence host movement and the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here, we show that ectoparasites alter metabolic activity in specific brain regions of mice, with evidence pointing to a potential role for microglial activation in the prefrontal cortex. This activation appears to contribute to synaptic changes and altered neuronal differentiation, particularly in GABAergic neurons. Consequently, exploratory behavior decreases-an effect likely mediated through the skin-brain axis. In both indoor and field experiments with striped hamsters, ectoparasites reduce host exploration and modify their dispersal patterns. This behavioral shift ultimately restricts the host's distribution, enabling parasites to avoid environmental pressures. Our findings reveal that ectoparasites limit host dispersal to improve their own fitness, offering key insights for parasite control strategies that promote health and preserve ecological stability within the One Health framework.

Investigating the Distribution Dynamics of the Camellia Subgenus Camellia in China and Providing Insights into Camellia Resources Management Under Future Climate Change

Rapid climate change has significantly impacted species distribution patterns, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of dominant tree dynamics for effective forest resource management and utilization. The Camellia subgenus Camellia, a widely distributed taxon in subtropical China, represents an ecologically and economically important group of woody plants valued for both oil production and ornamental purposes. In this study, we employed the BIOMOD2 ensemble modeling framework to investigate the spatial distribution patterns and range dynamics of the subgenus Camellia under projected climate change scenarios. Our analysis incorporated 1455 georeferenced occurrence records from 15 species, following the filtering of duplicate points, along with seven bioclimatic variables selected after highly correlated factors were eliminated. The ensemble model, which integrates six single species distribution models, demonstrated robust predictive performance, with mean true skil l statistic (TSS) and area under curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.8. Our results identified precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) and temperature seasonality (Bio4) as the primary determinants influencing species distribution patterns. The center of species richness for the subgenus Camellia was located in the Nanling Mountains and eastern Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The projections indicate an overall expansion of suitable habitats for the subgenus under future climate conditions, with notable scenario-dependent variations: distribution hotspots are predicted to increase by 8.86% under the SSP126 scenario but experience a 2.53% reduction under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, a westward shift in the distribution centroid is anticipated. To ensure long-term conservation of Camellia genetic resources, we recommend establishing a germplasm conservation center in the Nanling Mountains region, which represents a critical biodiversity hotspot for this taxon.

Modeling the potential distribution of Hippophae rhamnoides in China under current and future climate scenarios using the biomod2 model

Introduction

Hippophae rhamnoides, a temperate species with a transcontinental distribution spanning Eurasia, demonstrates preferential establishment in water-limited ecosystems (arid/semi-arid zones), particularly occupying high-elevation niches with skeletal soils and high solar flux. This ecologically significant plant, prized for dual ecological provisioning and economic services, shows biogeographic concentration in China's northern desertification belts, northwestern Loess Plateau, and southwestern montane corridors. Studying the possible areas where H. rhamnoides may be found can offer a scientific foundation for the protection and sustainable management of its resources.

Methods

This study utilized the biomod2 software to assess an integrated model based on 312 distribution points and 23 environmental factors. Furthermore, a modeling analysis was conducted to examine how the geographical distribution of H. rhamnoides changes over time under the SSP245 scenario.

Results

The findings show that the distribution of H. rhamnoides is primarily affected by three factors: annual mean temperature, temperature seasonality and mean temperature of the coldest quarter. Currently, H. rhamnoides is predominantly distributed in the provinces of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, Hebei, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Tibet, Sichuan, Qinghai, and Ningxia. The suitable habitat covers an area of 212.89×10⁴ km², which represents 22.15% of China's total land area. Within this region, high, medium, and low suitability areas make up 23.15%, 22.66%, and 54.20% of the suitable habitat, respectively.

Discussion

In the future, the centroid of the suitable habitat for H. rhamnoides is expected to gradually shift northwest, with a trend of increasing suitability in the west and decreasing suitability in the east. This study aims to provide an in-depth exploration of the distribution of H. rhamnoides and the influence of environmental factors on it from a geographical perspective. These results are important for improving the conservation, management, cultivation, and propagation of H. rhamnoides, while also offering a scientific foundation for the research of other valuable plant species.

Predicting suitable habitats of parasitic desert species based on Biomod2 ensemble model: Cynomorium songaricum rupr and its host plants as an example

BACKGROUND

As a species of considerable medicinal, ecological, and economic significance, the protection of C. songaricum and its host plants is of paramount importance. Biodiversity patterns and species distribution are profoundly influenced by climate change. Understanding the adaptive mechanisms of organisms in response to these changes is essential for effective species conservation. However, there is currently limited information available on simulating habitat suitability and assessing key environmental factors associated with parasite species using niche models.

METHODS

This study utilized environmental and species distribution data to analyze the shifts in the geographic range of C. songaricum and its host plants under current and projected future climate scenarios using the Biomod2 platform, which integrates multiple individual models into an ensemble framework. Additionally, the study quantified the environmental variables influencing the observed distribution patterns.

RESULTS

The potential geographical distribution and overlapping areas of C. songaricum and its host plants are primarily concentrated in Asia and North America. Under all four scenarios within the two timeframes (2041-2060 and 2061-2080), the overall suitable habitat areas for C. songaricum, Nitraria tangutorum Bobr., N. sphaerocarpa Maxim., and Peganum multisectum (Maxim.) Bobrov are expected to decrease compared with current climatic conditions. Conversely, the total area of suitable habitat for Kalidium foliatum (Pall.) Moq., Nitraria sibirica Pall., and Zygophyllum xanthoxylum (Bunge) Maxim. is predicted to increase. All species except K. foliatum will experience greater reductions between 2041 and 2060 than between 2061 and 2080 under more severe climate change scenarios. There is significant ecological niche overlap among C. songaricum, N. sphaerocarpa, N. tangutorum, and P. multisectum. Key factors influencing the future distribution of C. songaricum include the mean ultraviolet-B light of the lowest month, altitude, and annual mean temperature.

CONCLUSION

A comprehensive analysis demonstrated that the accuracy of predictions could be significantly enhanced and the distributional error for individual species could be minimized by employing the Biomod2 ensemble model to simulate the suitable habitats of parasitic species. The findings of this study can significantly inform both the management of C. songaricum plantations and the conservation of C. songaricum and its host plants.

Predicting high-risk zones for pine wood nematodes invasion: Integrating climate suitability, host availability, and vector dominance

Pine wood nematodes (PWN, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) cause widespread mortality in pine forests via pine wilt disease (PWD). The rapid death of diseased trees, which destroys biodiversity and significantly affects forest carbon storage, leading to negative environmental and economic consequences, as forests are crucial to the global carbon cycle. The interactions among PWN, hosts, and vector insects are closely linked to climate change. Climate warming has exacerbated changes in the geographic distribution of host tree species and vector insects, thereby increasing the rate and extent of PWD transmission. These interactions increase the risk of pine infection and can have far-reaching consequences for the health and stability of entire forest ecosystems. However, the global effects of climate change on these interactions are poorly understood. To fill this research gap and predict the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of PWNs and vector insects in pine forests, we used the biomod2 integrated model to forecast their potential geographic distributions by 2050, 2070, and 2090 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). We analysed vector dominance and risk zones and found that potentially suitable areas for PWNs could migrate to higher latitudes in the future. The dominant vector insects, Monochamus alternatus, Monochamus carolinensis, and Monochamus saltuarius, exhibited a high ecological niche similarity to PWNs and their populations should be controlled. Additionally, high-risk areas for abiotic factors (environmental similarity) and biotic factors (hosts and vectors) will greatly expand in North America and Europe. Areas already infested by PWN will become high-risk zones for the conversion of carbon sinks to carbon sources. The modeled changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of PWN, hosts, and vector insects in this study provide a reference for developing management and conservation strategies for ensuring PWN control and improving future forest health.

Modeling current and future distributions of invasive Asteraceae species in Northeast China

The ecological balance and agricultural productivity of northeastern China are seriously threatened by the long-term invasion and spread of Asteraceae plants, which have severely disrupted the region's biodiversity and ecosystem stability. Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., Ambrosia trifida L., and Erigeron canadensis L. are Class 1 malignant invasive species widely distributed across northeastern China. In this context, we selected 36 predictor variables and utilized the MaxEnt model to investigate the influence of current climate on their distribution patterns. Using future climate data, we projected shifts in the distribution dynamics of these three Asteraceae species for two time periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) under three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The MaxEnt model demonstrated a good predictive impact, with an average area under the curve (AUC) of 0.918. Currently, the three Asteraceae species are primarily found in the southern part of northeastern China. However, due to future climatic changes, their distribution centroids are gradually shifting southwest, leading to an increase in the area of highly suitable zones for these species. Moreover, trend analysis revealed that the potential distribution changes of highly suitable zones for the three Asteraceae species in the southwestern northeastern China are likely to experience an increasing invasive trend under various future climate models. This study provides initial insights into the distribution dynamics of Asteraceae species in northeastern China under climate change, enabling the formulation of plans for managing and preventing the risks and impacts of invasive species.

Climate change affects the suitability of Chinese cherry (Prunus pseudocerasus Lindl.) in China

The rapid development of Prunus pseudocerasus related industry has increasingly contributed to rural vitalization in China. This study employed a biomod2 ensemble model, utilizing environmental and species occurrence data from 151 P. pseudocerasus germplasm wild/local samples, to predict potential geographical distribution, suitability changes, climate dependence, and ecological niche dynamics. The optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model yielded the most accurate predictions. The climate variables with the greatest impact on suitability were precipitation of warmest quarter and mean diurnal temperature range. The total potential suitable area for P. pseudocerasus was approximately 2.78 × 106 km2, increasing with CO2 concentration. The highly suitable area was primarily concentrated in basin terrains, plateaus, and plains of Sichuan Province. The current centroid in Lichuan exhibited gradual latitudinal and longitudinal movement. The predicted (2090s) ecological niche trends of P. pseudocerasus varied under different pathways and periods, with higher CO2 concentration associated with lower niche overlap. The CO2 emission concentration in the SSP246 scenario emerged as the most suitable climate model. Climate change is driving both the expansion of geographical distribution and the contraction of overlapping geographical distribution areas of P. pseudocerasus. These findings provide a theoretical basis for wild resource conservation, site selection for production, and introduction of allopatry for P. pseudocerasus.

Recent distribution changes of invasive Asteraceae species in China: A five-year analysis (2016-2020)

This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of 17 invasive Asteraceae species in China from 2016 to 2020, providing insights into invasion responses during this period. Through innovative integration of high-resolution temporal data, specimen records, city-level environmental variables, and land use changes, we quantified rapid range expansions and identified invasion hotspots across different geographical regions. Our results reveal a significant increase in the average number of provinces occupied per species, from 9.8 in 2016 to 12.3 in 2020, representing a 25.5% expansion. Erigeron canadensis, Erigeron annuus, and Bidens pilosa emerged as the most widespread species, present in 25, 23, and 24 provinces respectively by 2020. Notably, Ageratina adenophora exhibited a 71.4% increase in provincial-level distribution, while Ambrosia artemisiifolia expanded by 54.5%. Generalized Linear Models revealed significant correlations between species spread and environmental factors, with temperature change being a strong predictor for several species (e.g., β = 0.73, SE = 0.21, p < 0.001 for Ambrosia artemisiifolia). Our high-resolution temporal analysis identified three distinct invasion hotspots: northeastern China (centered around Harbin), characterized by increasing temperatures (+0.3 °C) and precipitation (+24.8 mm); the eastern coast (Shanghai to Hangzhou), marked by warming (+0.4 °C) and decreased precipitation (-60.1 mm); and southwestern China (Yunnan), experiencing increased precipitation (+103.5 mm). Urban expansion and transportation networks significantly influenced invasion patterns, with 82% of new Ambrosia artemisiifolia populations occurring within 3 km of major transportation corridors. The study revealed species-specific responses to human activities, with Solidago canadensis showing a 54.2% increase in newly developed urban areas. By demonstrating rapid invasion responses to short-term environmental fluctuations and human activities, this study advances our understanding of immediate invasion dynamics and provides time-sensitive data for adaptive management strategies. Our findings highlight the necessity of continuous short-term monitoring and regionally tailored management approaches in responding to biological invasions under ongoing environmental changes.

Impacts of Human Activity and Climate Change on the Suitable Habitats for Xanthium spinosum in China

Xanthium spinosum (X. spinosum) is a highly invasive weed native to South America and distributed in 17 provinces (municipalities) of China. It has severely negative influences on ecosystems, agriculture, and husbandry. However, few studies have reported on the impact of human activity and climate change on the future distribution and centroid shift of X. spinosum. This study aimed to investigate the potential geological distribution of X. spinosum in China, as well as the distribution pattern, centroid shift, and key environmental factors influencing its distribution, under four future climate scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70, and SSP5-85) based on the biomod2-integrated model. The results indicated that the suitable habitats for X. spinosum would expand in the future, mainly in Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, and the plateau regions (e.g., Xinjiang and Xizang). Under future climate scenarios, the centroid would shift toward the northwest or northeast part of China, with the SSP2-45-2050s scenario showing the maximum shift distance (161.990 km). Additionally, the key environmental variables influencing the distribution of X. spinosum, including human impact index, bio5, bio7, and bio12, were determined, revealing that most of them were related to human activities, temperature, and precipitation. This study enhances the understanding of the influence of human activity and climate change on the geographic range of X. spinosum. It provides references for early warning and management in the control of X. spinosum.

Coupling phylogenetic relatedness and distribution patterns provides insights into sandburs invasion risk assessment

Invasive sandburs (Cenchrus spp.), tropical and subtropical plants, are preferred in grasslands and agricultural ecosystems worldwide, causing significant crop production losses and reducing native biodiversity. Integrating phylogenetic relatedness and potentially suitable habitats (PSHs) to identify areas at risk of invasion is critical for prioritizing management efforts and supporting decisions on early warning and surveillance for sandbur invasions. However, despite risk assessments for individual Cenchrus species, the combined analysis of suitable habitats and phylogenetic relationships remains unclear. Therefore, this study aims to assess the invasion risk regions-including PSHs, species richness (SR), and phylogenetic structure-of eight invasive and potentially invasive sandburs in China, to quantify their niche overlap and identify driving factors. Our results showed that the phylogenetic distance of potentially invasive sandburs was closely related to invasive sandburs. Especially, three potentially invasive sandburs, C. ciliaris, C. setigerus, and C. myosuroides, possessed invasion potential resulting from close phylogenetic relatedness and high climatic suitability compared with invasive sandburs. The PSHs for invasive sandburs were distributed in wider regions except northwest China and had higher suitability to different environmental conditions. Potentially invasive sandburs were primarily located in southwestern and southern China driven by precipitation, especially, being inspected in Guangdong, Hainan, and Yunnan on numerous occasions, or potentially introduced in Guangxi, Taiwan, and Fujian for sandburs invasion hotspots. The phylogenetic clustering for eight sandburs occurred in the eastern, center, and southern coastal China, where higher SR in distribution was correlated with invasion hotspots. The SR and phylogenetic relatedness metrics were related to temperature and topographic variables. Totally, the expansion and invasion risk could be increased toward higher latitudes under future global warming. These findings offer novel insights for the prevention and management of sandburs invasions.

Estimating global geographical distribution and ecological niche dynamics of Ammannia coccinea under climate change based on Biomod2

Invasive alien plants pose a significant threat to biodiversity and the agricultural economy. The invasive weed (Ammannia coccinea) competes with rice in paddy fields, potentially threatening rice production. Despite the crucial need to estimate the global geographical distribution and ecological niche dynamics of A. coccinea for effective early warning, control strategies, and global rice security, relevant research remains scarce. This study utilized the Biomod2 platform, which integrates multiple single models into ensemble model, incorporating environmental and species data to analyze the distribution range shifts of A. coccinea under current and future climate scenarios. It also quantified and analyzed shifts in the species' ecological niche across these climate scenarios. The results indicated that the potential suitable areas for A. coccinea were mainly in Southern North America, northern and south-eastern South America, south-western Europe, the Middle East, central Africa, western Asia, south-eastern Asia, with a gradual increase in mid-high suitability habitat over time and radiation levels. While the overall ecological niche of A. coccinea remains stable, minor shifts are expected under future conditions. Temperature, precipitation, and the human impact index were the key factors influencing the future distribution of A. coccinea. Climate change contributes to the expansion of A. coccinea's highly suitable areas and shifts its ecological niche. Organizations efforts should focus on preventing the spread of A. coccinea in regions where its potential distribution overlaps with key rice production areas. The findings of this study provide critical insights into the global distribution and ecological niche dynamics of A. coccinea, aiding in the development of early warning and control strategies to mitigate its impact on biodiversity, agriculture, and particularly rice production under future climate scenarios.

Occurrence and potential diffusion of pine wilt disease mediated by insect vectors in China under climate change

BACKGROUND

Pine wilt disease (PWD), a major international quarantined forest pest, causes serious ecological and economic damage to Pinus species in Asia and Europe. In China, PWD has spread northeasterly and northwesterly beyond its original northern limits. Consequently, an evaluation of the insect vector-mediated occurrence and potential diffusion of PWD is needed to identify important transmission routes and control the spread of disease.

RESULTS

An optimized MaxEnt model was used to assess the current and future geographical distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus and its insect vectors in China. The predicted suitable area for B. xylophilus colonization is currently 212.32 × 104 km2 and mainly concentrated in Central, East, Southwest and South China, although is anticipated to include the northwestern regions of China in the future. As for the insect vectors, Monochamus alternatus and M. saltuarius are expected to spread toward the northwest and southwest, respectively. The maximum predicted dispersion area of PWD mediated by M. alternatus, M. saltuarius and both species was 91.85 × 104, 218.76 × 104 and 29.99 × 104 km2, respectively, with potential diffusion areas being anticipated to increase in the future. Both the suitable probabilities and areas of B. xylophilus and its insect vectors were found to vary substantially along the latitudinal gradient, with the latitudinal range of these species being predicted to expand in the future.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to investigate the potential diffusion areas of PWD mediated by insect vectors in China, and our finding will provide a vital theoretical reference and empirical basis for developing more effective management strategies for the control of PWD in China. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Assessing the climatic niche changes and global invasion risk of Solanum elaeagnifolium in relation to human activities

As an invasive plant, Solanum elaeagnifolium has posed a serious threat to agriculture and natural ecosystems worldwide. In order to better manage and limit its spread, we established niche models by combining distribution information and climate data from the native and invasive ranges of S. elaeagnifolium to analyze its niche changes during its colonization. Additionally, we evaluated its global invasion risk. Our results showed that the distribution of S. elaeagnifolium is affected by temperature, precipitation, altitude, and human activities. Solanum elaeagnifolium exhibits different degrees of niche conservatism and niche shift in different invasion ranges. During the global invasion of S. elaeagnifolium, both the niche shift and conservatism were observed, however, niche shift was particularly significant due to the presence of unoccupied niches (niche unfilling). Solanum elaeagnifolium generally occupied a relatively stable niche. However, a notable expansion was observed primarily in Europe and China. In Australia and Africa, its niche largely remains a subset of its native niche. Compared to the niche observed in its native range, its realized niche in China and Europe has shifted toward lower temperature and higher precipitation levels. Conversely, in Africa, the niche has shifted toward lower precipitation levels, while in Australia, it has shifted toward higher temperature. Our model predicted that S. elaeagnifolium has high invasion potential in many countries and regions. The populations of S. elaeagnifolium in China and Africa have reached the adapted stage, while the populations in Australia and Europe are currently in the stabilization stage. In addition, our research suggests that the potential distribution of S. elaeagnifolium will expand further in the future as the climate warms. All in all, our study suggests that S. elaeagnifolium has high potential to invade globally. Due to its high invasive potential, global surveillance and preventive measures are necessary to address its spread.

Distribution patterns and potential suitable habitat prediction of Ceracris kiangsu (Orthoptera: Arcypteridae) under climate change- a case study of China and Southeast Asia

Ceracris kiangsu (Orthoptera: Arcypteridae), is greatly affected by climatic factors and exhibits strong adaptability, posing a serious threat to the ecological environment. Therefore, predicting its potential suitable habitat distribution provides a proactive theoretical basis for pest control. This study using the Biomod2 package of R simulated and predicted the current and future potential distribution, area changes, changes in the center points of suitable habitats, and niche shifts of C. kiangsu under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, SSP1-26 and SSP5-85. The results show that: (1) Currently, the high suitability areas for C. kiangsu are mainly distributed in Yunnan, Jiangxi, Hunan provinces in southern China and phongsaly province in northern Laos. In the future, the center of the suitable habitat distribution pattern of C. kiangsu will remain unchanged, primarily expanding outward from medium and high suitability areas. Additionally, significant suitable habitats for C. kiangsu were discovered in Southeast Asian countries without previous pest records. (2) Compared to the present, the overall suitable habitat area for C. kiangsu is expected to expand, particularly under the SSP5-85 climate change scenario. (3) In the SSP1-26 and SSP5-85 climate scenarios, the geometric center of the suitable habitat generally shows a trend of gradually shifting northeast. (4) Under different climate scenarios, the suitable habitat of C. kiangsu has highly overlapping, indicating that the suitable habitat of C. kiangsu in the invaded areas is broader than in its native regions. In conclusion, the research findings represent a breakthrough in identifying the potential distribution areas of C. kiangsu, which is of great practical significance for the monitoring and control of C. kiangsu pest infestation in China and Southeast Asian countries.

The ancestral karyotype of the Heliantheae Alliance, herbicide resistance, and human allergens: Insights from the genomes of common and giant ragweed

Ambrosia artemisiifolia and Ambrosia trifida (Asteraceae) are important pest species and the two greatest sources of aeroallergens globally. Here, we took advantage of a hybrid to simplify genome assembly and present chromosome-level assemblies for both species. These assemblies show high levels of completeness with Benchmarking Universal Single-Copy Ortholog (BUSCO) scores of 94.5% for A. artemisiifolia and 96.1% for A. trifida and long terminal repeat (LTR) Assembly Index values of 26.6 and 23.6, respectively. The genomes were annotated using RNA data identifying 41,642 genes in A. artemisiifolia and 50,203 in A. trifida. More than half of the genome is composed of repetitive elements, with 62% in A. artemisiifolia and 69% in A. trifida. Single copies of herbicide resistance-associated genes PPX2L, HPPD, and ALS were found, while two copies of the EPSPS gene were identified; this latter observation may reveal a possible mechanism of resistance to the herbicide glyphosate. Ten of the 12 main allergenicity genes were also localized, some forming clusters with several copies, especially in A. artemisiifolia. The evolution of genome structure has differed among these two species. The genome of A. trifida has undergone greater rearrangement, possibly the result of chromoplexy. In contrast, the genome of A. artemisiifolia retains a structure that makes the allotetraploidization of the most recent common ancestor of the Heliantheae Alliance the clearest feature of its genome. When compared to other Heliantheae Alliance species, this allowed us to reconstruct the common ancestor's karyotype-a key step for furthering of our understanding of the evolution and diversification of this economically and allergenically important group.

Climate as a Predictive Factor for Invasion: Unravelling the Range Dynamics of Carpomya vesuviana Costa

Invasive alien species (IAS) significantly affect global native biodiversity, agriculture, industry, and human health. Carpomya vesuviana Costa, 1854 (Diptera: Tephritidae), a significant global IAS, affects various date species, leading to substantial economic losses and adverse effects on human health and the environment. This study employed biomod2 ensemble models, multivariate environmental similarity surface and most dissimilar variable analyses, and ecological niche dynamics based on environmental and species data to predict the potential distribution of C. vesuviana and explore the environmental variables affecting observed patterns and impacts. Compared to native ranges, ecological niche shifts at invaded sites increased the invasion risk of C. vesuviana globally. The potential geographical distribution was primarily in Asia, Africa, and Australia, with a gradual increase in suitability with time and radiation levels. The potential geographic distribution centre of C. vesuviana is likely to shift poleward between the present and the 2090s. We also show that precipitation is a key factor influencing the likely future distribution of this species. In conclusion, climate change has facilitated the expansion of the geographic range and ecological niche of C. vesuviana, requiring effective transnational management strategies to mitigate its impacts on the natural environment and public health during the Anthropocene. This study aims to assess the potential threat of C. vesuviana to date palms globally through quantitative analytical methods. By modelling and analysing its potential geographic distribution, ecological niche, and environmental similarities, this paper predicts the pest's dispersal potential and possible transfer trends in geographic centres of mass in order to provide prevention and control strategies for the global date palm industry.

Possible potential spread of Anopheles stephensi, the Asian malaria vector

BACKGROUND

Anopheles stephensi is native to Southeast Asia and the Arabian Peninsula and has emerged as an effective and invasive malaria vector. Since invasion was reported in Djibouti in 2012, the global invasion range of An. stephensi has been expanding, and its high adaptability to the environment and the ongoing development of drug resistance have created new challenges for malaria control. Climate change is an important factor affecting the distribution and transfer of species, and understanding the distribution of An. stephensi is an important part of malaria control measures, including vector control.

METHODS

In this study, we collected existing distribution data for An. stephensi, and based on the SSP1-2.6 future climate data, we used the Biomod2 package in R Studio through the use of multiple different model methods such as maximum entropy models (MAXENT) and random forest (RF) in this study to map the predicted global An. stephensi climatically suitable areas.

RESULTS

According to the predictions of this study, some areas where there are no current records of An. stephensi, showed significant areas of climatically suitable for An. stephensi. In addition, the global climatically suitability areas for An. stephensi are expanding with global climate change, with some areas changing from unsuitable to suitable, suggesting a greater risk of invasion of An. stephensi in these areas, with the attendant possibility of a resurgence of malaria, as has been the case in Djibouti.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence for the possible invasion and expansion of An. stephensi and serves as a reference for the optimization of targeted monitoring and control strategies for this malaria vector in potential invasion risk areas.

Early warning and management of invasive crop pests under global warming: estimating the global geographical distribution patterns and ecological niche overlap of three Diabrotica beetles

Invasive alien pests (IAPs) pose a major threat to global agriculture and food production. When multiple IAPs coexist in the same habitat and use the same resources, the economic loss to local agricultural production increases. Many species of the Diabrotica genus, such as Diabrotica barberi, Diabrotica undecimpunctata, and Diabrotica virgifera, originating from the USA and Mexico, seriously damaged maize production in North America and Europe. However, the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) and degree of ecological niche overlap among the three Diabrotica beetles remain unclear; thus, the potential coexistence zone is unknown. Based on environmental and species occurrence data, we used an ensemble model (EM) to predict the PGDs and overlapping PGD of the three Diabrotica beetles. The n-dimensional hypervolumes concept was used to explore the degree of niche overlap among the three species. The EM showed better reliability than the individual models. According to the EM results, the PGDs and overlapping PGD of the three Diabrotica beetles were mainly distributed in North America, Europe, and Asia. Under the current scenario, D. virgifera has the largest PGD ranges (1615 × 104 km2). In the future, the PGD of this species will expand further and reach a maximum under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in the 2050s (2499 × 104 km2). Diabrotica virgifera showed the highest potential for invasion under the current and future global warming scenarios. Among the three studied species, the degree of ecological niche overlap was the highest for D. undecimpunctata and D. virgifera, with the highest similarity in the PGD patterns and maximum coexistence range. Under global warming, the PGDs of the three Diabrotica beetles are expected to expand to high latitudes. Identifying the PGDs of the three Diabrotica beetles provides an important reference for quarantine authorities in countries at risk of invasion worldwide to develop specific preventive measures against pests.

Modeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species Triadica sebifera in response to climate change in China

As an important woody oilseed species in China, Triadica sebifera is not only concerned with the substitution of traditional energy sources, but also plays a considerable role in coping with energy shortages. Accurately predicting the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera in China and understanding its ecological needs are crucial for alleviating the energy crisis and effectively implementing energy substitution strategies. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera in China at contemporary and future periods was predicted based on the distribution data of Triadica sebifera in China and the environmental factor variables by Maxent model and ArcGIS software. The combination of important factors governing the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera was assessed by the contribution of environmental factor variables. The accuracy of Maxent model's predictions was assessed by AUC values, TSS values and Kappa statistics. The results show that: High AUC and TSS values indicate high accuracy and performance of the model. The crucial environmental factors limiting the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera are the temperature factor (mean air temperature of the driest quarter), precipitation factor (precipitation of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the wettest month), and the intensity of human activities (hf). The total suitable area for Triadica sebifera is 233.64 × 104 km2, primarily located in Yunnan, Sichuan, Hubei, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Guangdong province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; its high suitability area is 30.89 × 104 km2, accounting for 13.22% of the total suitable area, mainly distributed in Jiangxi, Sichuan and Hunan provinces in the shape of a cake. Under the four typical greenhouse gas emission concentration patterns in the 2050s and 2070s, the areas of high and medium suitable areas for Triadica sebifera will increase, while the area of its low suitable area will decrease. However, the total suitable area will remain relatively unchanged. Its potential suitable habitats show a trend of shifting towards lower latitudes and southeast regions. The study predicted the pattern of Triadica sebifera under different climate change conditions, which can provide guidance for future cultivation of Triadica sebifera as well as for biofuel development and utilization.

A temporally and spatially explicit, data-driven estimation of airborne ragweed pollen concentrations across Europe

Ongoing and future climate change driven expansion of aeroallergen-producing plant species comprise a major human health problem across Europe and elsewhere. There is an urgent need to produce accurate, temporally dynamic maps at the continental level, especially in the context of climate uncertainty. This study aimed to restore missing daily ragweed pollen data sets for Europe, to produce phenological maps of ragweed pollen, resulting in the most complete and detailed high-resolution ragweed pollen concentration maps to date. To achieve this, we have developed two statistical procedures, a Gaussian method (GM) and deep learning (DL) for restoring missing daily ragweed pollen data sets, based on the plant's reproductive and growth (phenological, pollen production and frost-related) characteristics. DL model performances were consistently better for estimating seasonal pollen integrals than those of the GM approach. These are the first published modelled maps using altitude correction and flowering phenology to recover missing pollen information. We created a web page (http://euragweedpollen.gmf.u-szeged.hu/), including daily ragweed pollen concentration data sets of the stations examined and their restored daily data, allowing one to upload newly measured or recovered daily data. Generation of these maps provides a means to track pollen impacts in the context of climatic shifts, identify geographical regions with high pollen exposure, determine areas of future vulnerability, apply spatially-explicit mitigation measures and prioritize management interventions.

Risk assessment framework for pine wilt disease: Estimating the introduction pathways and multispecies interactions among the pine wood nematode, its insect vectors, and hosts in China

Pine wilt disease (PWD), caused by the pine wood nematode (PWN, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus), a destructive, invasive forest pathogen, poses a serious threat to global pine forest ecosystems. The global invasion of PWN has been described based on three successive phases, introduction, establishment, and dispersal. Risk assessments of the three successive PWN invasion phases can assist in targeted management efforts. Here, we present a risk assessment framework to evaluate the introduction, establishment, and dispersal risks of PWD in China using network analysis, species distribution models, and niche concepts. We found that >88 % of PWN inspection records were from the United States, South Korea, Japan, Germany, and Mexico, and 94 % of interception records were primarily from the Jiangsu, Shanghai, Shandong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang ports. Based on the nearly current climate, the areas of PWN overlap with its host Pinus species were primarily distributed in southern, eastern, Yangtze River Basin, central, and northeastern China regions. Areas of PWN overlap with its insect vector Monochamus alternatus were primarily distributed in southern, eastern, Yangtze River Basin, central, and northeastern China regions, and those of PWN overlap with the insect vector Monochamus saltuarius were primarily distributed in eastern and northeastern China. The niche between PWN and the insect vector M. alternatus was the most similar (0.68), followed by that between PWN and the insect vector M. saltuarius (0.47). Climate change will increase the suitable probabilities of PWN and its two insect vectors occurring at high latitudes, further increasing their threat to hosts in northeastern China. This risk assessment framework for PWD could be influential in preventing the entry of the PWN and mitigating their establishment and dispersal risks in China. Our study provides substantial clues for developing a framework to improve the risk assessment and surveillance of biological invasions worldwide.

Dynamics of the distribution of invasive alien plants (Asteraceae) in China under climate change

Climate change and biological invasions pose significant threats to the conservation of biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. With the rapid development of international trade and economy, China has become one of the countries most seriously affected by invasive alien plants (IAPs), especially the Asteraceae IAPs. For this end, we selected occurrence data of 31 Asteraceae IAPs and 33 predictor variables to explore the distribution pattern under current climate using MaxEnt model. Based on future climate data, the changes in distribution dynamics of Asteraceae IAPs were predicted under two time periods (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) and three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585). The results indicated that the potential distribution of IAPs was mainly in the southeast of China under current climate. Climatic variables, including precipitation of coldest quarter (BIO19), temperature annual range (BIO07) and annual precipitation (BIO12) were the main factors affecting the potential distribution. Besides, human footprint (HFP), population (POP) and soil moisture (SM) also had a great contribution for shaping the distribution pattern. With climate change, the potential distribution of IAPs would shift to the northwest and expand. It would also accelerate the expansion of most Asteraceae IAPs in China. The results of our study can help to understand the dynamics change of distributions of Asteraceae IAPs under climate change in advance so that early strategies can be developed to reduce the risk and influence of biological invasions.

Predicting the current and future distribution of Monochamus carolinensis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) based on the maximum entropy model

BACKGROUND

Monochamus carolinensis is an important vector of pinewood nematodes in North America that is under quarantine in several countries worldwide. The distribution of M. carolinensis was previously thought to be limited to North America; however, we discovered it during trapping in China in 2022. Using this discovery and information regarding the area of origin, we applied a machine-learning algorithm based on the maximum entropy principle to predict the current and future (2050s, 2070s) potential distribution areas of M. carolinensis using bioclimatic variables.

RESULTS

The biological suitability of M. carolinensis was mainly driven by precipitation factors (BIO18, BIO15, BIO19), with 87.18% of the potential distribution areas located in South America, Asia, North America and Africa. Future potential distribution areas of M. carolinensis are predicted to expand to high latitudes, with an average increase of 10 245 874.88 km2 , and only 6.89% of the current suitable areas will become unsuitable. The potential distribution areas in 2070 are largest under the SSP585 scenario, with a 41.40% predicted increase (52 309 803.61 km2 ) above the current distribution, mainly reflecting an increase of the marginally and highly suitable areas.

CONCLUSION

The determination of dominant climatic factors and potential distribution areas will help provide an early warning for an M. carolinensis invasion, as well as provide a scientific basis for the spread and outbreak, facilitating development of effective governmental prevention and control measures. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Integrating biogeographic approach into classical biological control: Assessing the climate matching and ecological niche overlap of two natural enemies against common ragweed in China

Plant invasion is considered a high priority threat to biodiversity, ecosystems, the environment, and human health worldwide. Classical biological control (biocontrol) is a generally safer and more environmentally benign measure than chemical controls in managing invasive alien plants (IAPs). However, the impacts of climate change and the importance of climate matching in ensuring the efficiency of biocontrol candidates in controlling IAPs are likely to be underestimated. Here, based on the ensemble model and n-dimensional hypervolumes concepts, we estimated the overlapping areas between Ambrosia artemisiifolia and its two most effective natural enemies (Ophraella communa and Epiblema strenuana) under climate change in China. Moreover, we compared their ecological niches, further assessing the impact of climate change on the efficiency of two natural enemies in controlling A. artemisiifolia in China. We found that the potentially suitable areas of the two natural enemies and A. artemisiifolia were primarily influenced by temperature and human influence index variables. Under near-current climate, the overlapping area between O. communa and A. artemisiifolia was the largest, followed by E. strenuana and A. artemisiifolia, and both two natural enemies and A. artemisiifolia. The ecological niche between A. artemisiifolia and O. communa was most similar (0.64), followed by A. artemisiifolia and E. strenuana (0.55). The separate control (the niche separation areas of the two natural enemies against A. artemisiifolia) and joint-control (the niche overlap areas of the two natural enemies against A. artemisiifolia) efficiencies of the two natural enemies against A. artemisiifolia will both increase in future climates (the 2030s and 2050s) in northern and northeastern China. Our findings demonstrate a new approach to assess control efficiency and screen potential release areas of two natural enemies against A. artemisiifolia in China without the need for actual field release or experimentation. Moreover, our findings provide important clues for ensuring the classical biocontrol of IAPs worldwide.

Factors affecting establishment and population growth of the invasive weed Ambrosia artemisiifolia

Ambrosia artemisiifolia is a highly invasive weed. Identifying the characteristics and the factors influencing its establishment and population growth may help to identify high invasion risk areas and facilitate monitoring and prevention efforts. Six typical habitats: river banks, forests, road margins, farmlands, grasslands, and wastelands, were selected from the main distribution areas of A. artemisiifolia in the Yili Valley, China. Six propagule quantities of A. artemisiifolia at 1, 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 seeds m-2 were seeded by aggregation, and dispersion in an area without A. artemisiifolia. Using establishment probability models and Allee effect models, we determined the minimum number of seeds and plants required for the establishment and population growth of A. artemisiifolia, respectively. We also assessed the moisture threshold requirements for establishment and survival, and the influence of native species. The influence of propagule pressure on the establishment of A. artemisiifolia was significant. The minimum number of seeds required varied across habitats, with the lowest being 60 seeds m-2 for road margins and the highest being 398 seeds for forests. The minimum number of plants required for population growth in each habitat was 5 and the largest number was 43 in pasture. The aggregation distribution of A. artemisiifolia resulted in a higher establishment and survival rate. The minimum soil volumetric water content required for establishment was significantly higher than that required for survival. The presence of native dominant species significantly reduced the establishment and survival rate of A. artemisiifolia. A. artemisiifolia has significant habitat selectivity and is more likely to establish successfully in a habitat with aggregated seeding with sufficient water and few native species. Establishment requires many seeds but is less affected by the Allee effect after successful establishment, and only a few plants are needed to ensure reproductive success and population growth in the following year. Monitoring should be increased in high invasion risk habitats.

Reconstructed Global Invasion and Spatio-Temporal Distribution Pattern Dynamics of Sorghum halepense under Climate and Land-Use Change

Sorghum halepense competes with crops and grass species in cropland, grassland, and urban environments, increasing invasion risk. However, the invasive historical dynamics and distribution patterns of S. halepense associated with current and future climate change and land-use change (LUC) remain unknown. We first analyzed the invasive historical dynamics of S. halepense to explore its invasion status and expansion trends. We then used a species distribution model to examine how future climate change and LUC will facilitate the invasion of S. halepense. We reconstructed the countries that have historically been invaded by S. halepense based on databases with detailed records of countries and occurrences. We ran biomod2 based on climate data and land-use data at 5' resolution, assessing the significance of environmental variables and LUC. Sorghum halepense was widely distributed worldwide through grain trade and forage introduction, except in Africa. Europe and North America provided most potential global suitable habitats (PGSHs) for S. halepense in cropland, grassland, and urban environments, representing 48.69%, 20.79%, and 84.82%, respectively. The future PGSHs of S. halepense increased continuously in the Northern Hemisphere, transferring to higher latitudes. Environmental variables were more significant than LUC in predicting the PGSHs of S. halepense. Future PGSHs of S. halepense are expected to increase, exacerbating the invasion risk through agricultural LUC. These results provide a basis for the early warning and prevention of S. halepense worldwide.

Niche Filling Dynamics of Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) during Global Invasion

Determining whether the climatic ecological niche of an invasive alien plant is similar to that of the niche occupied by its native population (ecological niche conservatism) is essential for predicting the plant invasion process. Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) usually poses serious threats to human health, agriculture, and ecosystems within its newly occupied range. We calculated the overlap, stability, unfilling, and expansion of ragweed's climatic ecological niche using principal component analysis and performed ecological niche hypothesis testing. The current and potential distribution of A. artemisiifolia was mapped by ecological niche models to identify areas in China with the highest potential risk of A. artemisiifolia invasion. The high ecological niche stability indicates that A. artemisiifolia is ecologically conservative during the invasion. Ecological niche expansion (expansion = 0.407) occurred only in South America. In addition, the difference between the climatic and native niches of the invasive populations is mainly the result of unpopulated niches. The ecological niche model suggests that southwest China, which has not been invaded by A. artemisiifolia, faces an elevated risk of invasion. Although A. artemisiifolia occupies a climatic niche distinct from native populations, the climatic niche of the invasive population is only a subset of the native niche. The difference in climatic conditions is the main factor leading to the ecological niche expansion of A. artemisiifolia during the invasion. Additionally, human activities play a substantial role in the expansion of A. artemisiifolia. Alterations in the A. artemisiifolia niche would help explain why this species is so invasive in China.