Climate change has increased the global threats posed by three ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in the Anthropocene

Possible potential spread of Anopheles stephensi, the Asian malaria vector

BACKGROUND

Anopheles stephensi is native to Southeast Asia and the Arabian Peninsula and has emerged as an effective and invasive malaria vector. Since invasion was reported in Djibouti in 2012, the global invasion range of An. stephensi has been expanding, and its high adaptability to the environment and the ongoing development of drug resistance have created new challenges for malaria control. Climate change is an important factor affecting the distribution and transfer of species, and understanding the distribution of An. stephensi is an important part of malaria control measures, including vector control.

METHODS

In this study, we collected existing distribution data for An. stephensi, and based on the SSP1-2.6 future climate data, we used the Biomod2 package in R Studio through the use of multiple different model methods such as maximum entropy models (MAXENT) and random forest (RF) in this study to map the predicted global An. stephensi climatically suitable areas.

RESULTS

According to the predictions of this study, some areas where there are no current records of An. stephensi, showed significant areas of climatically suitable for An. stephensi. In addition, the global climatically suitability areas for An. stephensi are expanding with global climate change, with some areas changing from unsuitable to suitable, suggesting a greater risk of invasion of An. stephensi in these areas, with the attendant possibility of a resurgence of malaria, as has been the case in Djibouti.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence for the possible invasion and expansion of An. stephensi and serves as a reference for the optimization of targeted monitoring and control strategies for this malaria vector in potential invasion risk areas.

Early warning and management of invasive crop pests under global warming: estimating the global geographical distribution patterns and ecological niche overlap of three Diabrotica beetles

Invasive alien pests (IAPs) pose a major threat to global agriculture and food production. When multiple IAPs coexist in the same habitat and use the same resources, the economic loss to local agricultural production increases. Many species of the Diabrotica genus, such as Diabrotica barberi, Diabrotica undecimpunctata, and Diabrotica virgifera, originating from the USA and Mexico, seriously damaged maize production in North America and Europe. However, the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) and degree of ecological niche overlap among the three Diabrotica beetles remain unclear; thus, the potential coexistence zone is unknown. Based on environmental and species occurrence data, we used an ensemble model (EM) to predict the PGDs and overlapping PGD of the three Diabrotica beetles. The n-dimensional hypervolumes concept was used to explore the degree of niche overlap among the three species. The EM showed better reliability than the individual models. According to the EM results, the PGDs and overlapping PGD of the three Diabrotica beetles were mainly distributed in North America, Europe, and Asia. Under the current scenario, D. virgifera has the largest PGD ranges (1615 × 104 km2). In the future, the PGD of this species will expand further and reach a maximum under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in the 2050s (2499 × 104 km2). Diabrotica virgifera showed the highest potential for invasion under the current and future global warming scenarios. Among the three studied species, the degree of ecological niche overlap was the highest for D. undecimpunctata and D. virgifera, with the highest similarity in the PGD patterns and maximum coexistence range. Under global warming, the PGDs of the three Diabrotica beetles are expected to expand to high latitudes. Identifying the PGDs of the three Diabrotica beetles provides an important reference for quarantine authorities in countries at risk of invasion worldwide to develop specific preventive measures against pests.

Modeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species Triadica sebifera in response to climate change in China

As an important woody oilseed species in China, Triadica sebifera is not only concerned with the substitution of traditional energy sources, but also plays a considerable role in coping with energy shortages. Accurately predicting the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera in China and understanding its ecological needs are crucial for alleviating the energy crisis and effectively implementing energy substitution strategies. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera in China at contemporary and future periods was predicted based on the distribution data of Triadica sebifera in China and the environmental factor variables by Maxent model and ArcGIS software. The combination of important factors governing the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera was assessed by the contribution of environmental factor variables. The accuracy of Maxent model's predictions was assessed by AUC values, TSS values and Kappa statistics. The results show that: High AUC and TSS values indicate high accuracy and performance of the model. The crucial environmental factors limiting the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera are the temperature factor (mean air temperature of the driest quarter), precipitation factor (precipitation of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the wettest month), and the intensity of human activities (hf). The total suitable area for Triadica sebifera is 233.64 × 104 km2, primarily located in Yunnan, Sichuan, Hubei, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Guangdong province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; its high suitability area is 30.89 × 104 km2, accounting for 13.22% of the total suitable area, mainly distributed in Jiangxi, Sichuan and Hunan provinces in the shape of a cake. Under the four typical greenhouse gas emission concentration patterns in the 2050s and 2070s, the areas of high and medium suitable areas for Triadica sebifera will increase, while the area of its low suitable area will decrease. However, the total suitable area will remain relatively unchanged. Its potential suitable habitats show a trend of shifting towards lower latitudes and southeast regions. The study predicted the pattern of Triadica sebifera under different climate change conditions, which can provide guidance for future cultivation of Triadica sebifera as well as for biofuel development and utilization.

A temporally and spatially explicit, data-driven estimation of airborne ragweed pollen concentrations across Europe

Ongoing and future climate change driven expansion of aeroallergen-producing plant species comprise a major human health problem across Europe and elsewhere. There is an urgent need to produce accurate, temporally dynamic maps at the continental level, especially in the context of climate uncertainty. This study aimed to restore missing daily ragweed pollen data sets for Europe, to produce phenological maps of ragweed pollen, resulting in the most complete and detailed high-resolution ragweed pollen concentration maps to date. To achieve this, we have developed two statistical procedures, a Gaussian method (GM) and deep learning (DL) for restoring missing daily ragweed pollen data sets, based on the plant's reproductive and growth (phenological, pollen production and frost-related) characteristics. DL model performances were consistently better for estimating seasonal pollen integrals than those of the GM approach. These are the first published modelled maps using altitude correction and flowering phenology to recover missing pollen information. We created a web page (http://euragweedpollen.gmf.u-szeged.hu/), including daily ragweed pollen concentration data sets of the stations examined and their restored daily data, allowing one to upload newly measured or recovered daily data. Generation of these maps provides a means to track pollen impacts in the context of climatic shifts, identify geographical regions with high pollen exposure, determine areas of future vulnerability, apply spatially-explicit mitigation measures and prioritize management interventions.

Risk assessment framework for pine wilt disease: Estimating the introduction pathways and multispecies interactions among the pine wood nematode, its insect vectors, and hosts in China

Pine wilt disease (PWD), caused by the pine wood nematode (PWN, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus), a destructive, invasive forest pathogen, poses a serious threat to global pine forest ecosystems. The global invasion of PWN has been described based on three successive phases, introduction, establishment, and dispersal. Risk assessments of the three successive PWN invasion phases can assist in targeted management efforts. Here, we present a risk assessment framework to evaluate the introduction, establishment, and dispersal risks of PWD in China using network analysis, species distribution models, and niche concepts. We found that >88 % of PWN inspection records were from the United States, South Korea, Japan, Germany, and Mexico, and 94 % of interception records were primarily from the Jiangsu, Shanghai, Shandong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang ports. Based on the nearly current climate, the areas of PWN overlap with its host Pinus species were primarily distributed in southern, eastern, Yangtze River Basin, central, and northeastern China regions. Areas of PWN overlap with its insect vector Monochamus alternatus were primarily distributed in southern, eastern, Yangtze River Basin, central, and northeastern China regions, and those of PWN overlap with the insect vector Monochamus saltuarius were primarily distributed in eastern and northeastern China. The niche between PWN and the insect vector M. alternatus was the most similar (0.68), followed by that between PWN and the insect vector M. saltuarius (0.47). Climate change will increase the suitable probabilities of PWN and its two insect vectors occurring at high latitudes, further increasing their threat to hosts in northeastern China. This risk assessment framework for PWD could be influential in preventing the entry of the PWN and mitigating their establishment and dispersal risks in China. Our study provides substantial clues for developing a framework to improve the risk assessment and surveillance of biological invasions worldwide.

Dynamics of the distribution of invasive alien plants (Asteraceae) in China under climate change

Climate change and biological invasions pose significant threats to the conservation of biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. With the rapid development of international trade and economy, China has become one of the countries most seriously affected by invasive alien plants (IAPs), especially the Asteraceae IAPs. For this end, we selected occurrence data of 31 Asteraceae IAPs and 33 predictor variables to explore the distribution pattern under current climate using MaxEnt model. Based on future climate data, the changes in distribution dynamics of Asteraceae IAPs were predicted under two time periods (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) and three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585). The results indicated that the potential distribution of IAPs was mainly in the southeast of China under current climate. Climatic variables, including precipitation of coldest quarter (BIO19), temperature annual range (BIO07) and annual precipitation (BIO12) were the main factors affecting the potential distribution. Besides, human footprint (HFP), population (POP) and soil moisture (SM) also had a great contribution for shaping the distribution pattern. With climate change, the potential distribution of IAPs would shift to the northwest and expand. It would also accelerate the expansion of most Asteraceae IAPs in China. The results of our study can help to understand the dynamics change of distributions of Asteraceae IAPs under climate change in advance so that early strategies can be developed to reduce the risk and influence of biological invasions.

Predicting the current and future distribution of Monochamus carolinensis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) based on the maximum entropy model

BACKGROUND

Monochamus carolinensis is an important vector of pinewood nematodes in North America that is under quarantine in several countries worldwide. The distribution of M. carolinensis was previously thought to be limited to North America; however, we discovered it during trapping in China in 2022. Using this discovery and information regarding the area of origin, we applied a machine-learning algorithm based on the maximum entropy principle to predict the current and future (2050s, 2070s) potential distribution areas of M. carolinensis using bioclimatic variables.

RESULTS

The biological suitability of M. carolinensis was mainly driven by precipitation factors (BIO18, BIO15, BIO19), with 87.18% of the potential distribution areas located in South America, Asia, North America and Africa. Future potential distribution areas of M. carolinensis are predicted to expand to high latitudes, with an average increase of 10 245 874.88 km2 , and only 6.89% of the current suitable areas will become unsuitable. The potential distribution areas in 2070 are largest under the SSP585 scenario, with a 41.40% predicted increase (52 309 803.61 km2 ) above the current distribution, mainly reflecting an increase of the marginally and highly suitable areas.

CONCLUSION

The determination of dominant climatic factors and potential distribution areas will help provide an early warning for an M. carolinensis invasion, as well as provide a scientific basis for the spread and outbreak, facilitating development of effective governmental prevention and control measures. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Integrating biogeographic approach into classical biological control: Assessing the climate matching and ecological niche overlap of two natural enemies against common ragweed in China

Plant invasion is considered a high priority threat to biodiversity, ecosystems, the environment, and human health worldwide. Classical biological control (biocontrol) is a generally safer and more environmentally benign measure than chemical controls in managing invasive alien plants (IAPs). However, the impacts of climate change and the importance of climate matching in ensuring the efficiency of biocontrol candidates in controlling IAPs are likely to be underestimated. Here, based on the ensemble model and n-dimensional hypervolumes concepts, we estimated the overlapping areas between Ambrosia artemisiifolia and its two most effective natural enemies (Ophraella communa and Epiblema strenuana) under climate change in China. Moreover, we compared their ecological niches, further assessing the impact of climate change on the efficiency of two natural enemies in controlling A. artemisiifolia in China. We found that the potentially suitable areas of the two natural enemies and A. artemisiifolia were primarily influenced by temperature and human influence index variables. Under near-current climate, the overlapping area between O. communa and A. artemisiifolia was the largest, followed by E. strenuana and A. artemisiifolia, and both two natural enemies and A. artemisiifolia. The ecological niche between A. artemisiifolia and O. communa was most similar (0.64), followed by A. artemisiifolia and E. strenuana (0.55). The separate control (the niche separation areas of the two natural enemies against A. artemisiifolia) and joint-control (the niche overlap areas of the two natural enemies against A. artemisiifolia) efficiencies of the two natural enemies against A. artemisiifolia will both increase in future climates (the 2030s and 2050s) in northern and northeastern China. Our findings demonstrate a new approach to assess control efficiency and screen potential release areas of two natural enemies against A. artemisiifolia in China without the need for actual field release or experimentation. Moreover, our findings provide important clues for ensuring the classical biocontrol of IAPs worldwide.

Factors affecting establishment and population growth of the invasive weed Ambrosia artemisiifolia

Ambrosia artemisiifolia is a highly invasive weed. Identifying the characteristics and the factors influencing its establishment and population growth may help to identify high invasion risk areas and facilitate monitoring and prevention efforts. Six typical habitats: river banks, forests, road margins, farmlands, grasslands, and wastelands, were selected from the main distribution areas of A. artemisiifolia in the Yili Valley, China. Six propagule quantities of A. artemisiifolia at 1, 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 seeds m-2 were seeded by aggregation, and dispersion in an area without A. artemisiifolia. Using establishment probability models and Allee effect models, we determined the minimum number of seeds and plants required for the establishment and population growth of A. artemisiifolia, respectively. We also assessed the moisture threshold requirements for establishment and survival, and the influence of native species. The influence of propagule pressure on the establishment of A. artemisiifolia was significant. The minimum number of seeds required varied across habitats, with the lowest being 60 seeds m-2 for road margins and the highest being 398 seeds for forests. The minimum number of plants required for population growth in each habitat was 5 and the largest number was 43 in pasture. The aggregation distribution of A. artemisiifolia resulted in a higher establishment and survival rate. The minimum soil volumetric water content required for establishment was significantly higher than that required for survival. The presence of native dominant species significantly reduced the establishment and survival rate of A. artemisiifolia. A. artemisiifolia has significant habitat selectivity and is more likely to establish successfully in a habitat with aggregated seeding with sufficient water and few native species. Establishment requires many seeds but is less affected by the Allee effect after successful establishment, and only a few plants are needed to ensure reproductive success and population growth in the following year. Monitoring should be increased in high invasion risk habitats.

Reconstructed Global Invasion and Spatio-Temporal Distribution Pattern Dynamics of Sorghum halepense under Climate and Land-Use Change

Sorghum halepense competes with crops and grass species in cropland, grassland, and urban environments, increasing invasion risk. However, the invasive historical dynamics and distribution patterns of S. halepense associated with current and future climate change and land-use change (LUC) remain unknown. We first analyzed the invasive historical dynamics of S. halepense to explore its invasion status and expansion trends. We then used a species distribution model to examine how future climate change and LUC will facilitate the invasion of S. halepense. We reconstructed the countries that have historically been invaded by S. halepense based on databases with detailed records of countries and occurrences. We ran biomod2 based on climate data and land-use data at 5' resolution, assessing the significance of environmental variables and LUC. Sorghum halepense was widely distributed worldwide through grain trade and forage introduction, except in Africa. Europe and North America provided most potential global suitable habitats (PGSHs) for S. halepense in cropland, grassland, and urban environments, representing 48.69%, 20.79%, and 84.82%, respectively. The future PGSHs of S. halepense increased continuously in the Northern Hemisphere, transferring to higher latitudes. Environmental variables were more significant than LUC in predicting the PGSHs of S. halepense. Future PGSHs of S. halepense are expected to increase, exacerbating the invasion risk through agricultural LUC. These results provide a basis for the early warning and prevention of S. halepense worldwide.

Niche Filling Dynamics of Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) during Global Invasion

Determining whether the climatic ecological niche of an invasive alien plant is similar to that of the niche occupied by its native population (ecological niche conservatism) is essential for predicting the plant invasion process. Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) usually poses serious threats to human health, agriculture, and ecosystems within its newly occupied range. We calculated the overlap, stability, unfilling, and expansion of ragweed's climatic ecological niche using principal component analysis and performed ecological niche hypothesis testing. The current and potential distribution of A. artemisiifolia was mapped by ecological niche models to identify areas in China with the highest potential risk of A. artemisiifolia invasion. The high ecological niche stability indicates that A. artemisiifolia is ecologically conservative during the invasion. Ecological niche expansion (expansion = 0.407) occurred only in South America. In addition, the difference between the climatic and native niches of the invasive populations is mainly the result of unpopulated niches. The ecological niche model suggests that southwest China, which has not been invaded by A. artemisiifolia, faces an elevated risk of invasion. Although A. artemisiifolia occupies a climatic niche distinct from native populations, the climatic niche of the invasive population is only a subset of the native niche. The difference in climatic conditions is the main factor leading to the ecological niche expansion of A. artemisiifolia during the invasion. Additionally, human activities play a substantial role in the expansion of A. artemisiifolia. Alterations in the A. artemisiifolia niche would help explain why this species is so invasive in China.