Model-based assessment of the risks of viral transmission in non-confined crowds

With or Without You: Effect of Contextual and Responsive Crowds on VR-based Crowd Motion Capture

While data is vital to better understand and model interactions within human crowds, capturing real crowd motions is extremely challenging. Virtual Reality (VR) demonstrated its potential to help, by immersing users into either simulated virtual crowds based on autonomous agents, or within motion-capture-based crowds. In the latter case, users' own captured motion can be used to progressively extend the size of the crowd, a paradigm called Record-and-Replay (2R). However, both approaches demonstrated several limitations which impact the quality of the acquired crowd data. In this paper, we propose the new concept of contextual crowds to leverage both crowd simulation and the 2R paradigm towards more consistent crowd data. We evaluate two different strategies to implement it, namely a Replace-Record-Replay (3R) paradigm where users are initially immersed into a simulated crowd whose agents are successively replaced by the user's captured-data, and a Replace-Record-Replay-Responsive (4R) paradigm where the pre-recorded agents are additionally endowed with responsive capabilities. These two paradigms are evaluated through two real-world-based scenarios replicated in VR. Our results suggest that the behaviors observed in VR users with surrounding agents from the beginning of the recording process are made much more natural, enabling 3R or 4R paradigms to improve the consistency of captured crowd datasets.

Propagation and control of congestion risk in scale-free networks based on information entropy

To study the propagation pattern of congestion risk in the traffic network and enhance risk control capabilities, a model has been developed. This model takes into account the probabilities of five threats (the risk occurrence probability; the risk of loss; the unpredictability of risk; the uncontrollability of risk; the transferability of risk) in the traffic network to define the risk entropy and determine the risk capacity, analyze the mechanism of congestion risk propagation, and explore the impact of risk resistance, the average degree of risk capacity at intersections, and the degree of correlation on congestion risk propagation. Further, a control method model for risk propagation is proposed. Numerical simulation results demonstrate that the risk resistance parameter θ can inhibit the propagation of congestion risk during traffic congestion. The highest efficiency in controlling risk propagation is achieved when θ reaches a threshold value θ*. Furthermore, the average degree of intersection risk capacity α shows a positive correlation with θ* and a negative correlation with control efficiency. However, the degree of association ω has a negative effect on risk propagation control, decreasing the degree of association between nodes aids in risk propagation control.

From Microscopic Droplets to Macroscopic Crowds: Crossing the Scales in Models of Short-Range Respiratory Disease Transmission, with Application to COVID-19

Short-range exposure to airborne virus-laden respiratory droplets is an effective transmission route of respiratory diseases, as exemplified by Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). In order to assess the risks associated with this pathway in daily-life settings involving tens to hundreds of individuals, the chasm needs to be bridged between fluid dynamical simulations and population-scale epidemiological models. This is achieved by simulating droplet trajectories at the microscale in numerous ambient flows, coarse-graining their results into spatio-temporal maps of viral concentration around the emitter, and coupling these maps to field-data about pedestrian crowds in different scenarios (streets, train stations, markets, queues, and street cafés). At the individual scale, the results highlight the paramount importance of the velocity of the ambient air flow relative to the emitter's motion. This aerodynamic effect, which disperses infectious aerosols, prevails over all other environmental variables. At the crowd's scale, the method yields a ranking of the scenarios by the risks of new infections, dominated by the street cafés and then the outdoor market. While the effect of light winds on the qualitative ranking is fairly marginal, even the most modest air flows dramatically lower the quantitative rates of new infections.

A cloud model-based method for passenger flow control at subway stations: A real-world case study

In the condition of large passenger flow, subway station managers take measures of passenger flow control organization for reducing high safety operation risks at subway stations. The volume of passenger flow in urban railway network operation continues to increase and the Congestion of passenger flow is very high. Passenger flow control measures can greatly give birth to the pressure of transportation and ensure an urban rail transit system’s safe operation. In this paper, we develop a cloud model-based method for passenger flow control, which extends the four-level risk-control grade of a large passenger flow at facilities by considering its fuzzy and stochastic characteristics. Then, an efficient passenger flow control strategy for subway stations is made, where the control time and locations are simultaneously determined. Finally, a station in the Beijing subway is studied to test the validity of the proposed approach. The results show that the time of maximum queuing length is much shorter and the density of passenger flow is lower than existing methods in practice. With the in-depth study of complex network controllability, many studies have applied to control judgment and real network optimization. This paper analyzes the cloud-model-based method for passenger flow control at subway stations and therefore a new method can be incorporated for developing and optimizing control strategies. A few researchers have attempted to find the solution to the problem of crowding risk classification and the passenger flow control strategy. The focus of some studies simultaneously solves the passenger flow control with multiple stations.

Agent-Based Simulation for Infectious Disease Modelling over a Period of Multiple Days, with Application to an Airport Scenario

With the COVID-19 pandemic, the role of infectious disease spreading in public places has been brought into focus more than ever. Places that are of particular interest regarding the spread of infectious diseases are international airport terminals, not only for the protection of staff and ground crew members but also to help minimize the risk of the spread of infectious entities such as COVID-19 around the globe. Computational modelling and simulation can help in understanding and predicting the spreading of infectious diseases in any such scenario. In this paper, we propose a model, which combines a simulation of high geometric detail regarding virus spreading with an account of the temporal progress of infection dynamics. We, thus, introduce an agent-based social force model for tracking the spread of infectious diseases by modelling aerosol traces and concentration of virus load in the air. We complement this agent-based model to have consistency over a period of several days. We then apply this model to investigate simulations in a realistic airport setting with multiple virus variants of varying contagiousness. According to our experiments, a virus variant has to be at least twelve times more contagious than the respective control to result in a level of infection of more than 30%. Combinations of agent-based models with temporal components can be valuable tools in an attempt to assess the risk of infection attributable to a particular virus and its variants.

Virus transmission risk of college students in railway station during Post-COVID-19 era: Combining the social force model and the virus transmission model

In the post-epidemic era, people's lives are gradually returning to normal, and travel is gradually resuming. The safe evacuation of cross-regional travelers in railway station has also attracted more and more attention, especially the evacuation behavior of college students in railway station. In this paper, considering the pedestrian dynamics mechanism in the emergency evacuation process during the COVID-19 normalized epidemic prevention and control, an Agent-based social force model was established to simulate the activities of college students in railway station. Combined with the virus infection transmission model, Monte Carlo simulation was used to calculate the total exposure time and the number of high-risk exposed people in the railway station evacuation process. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the total exposure time and the number of high-risk exposed people under 180 combinations of the number of initial infections, social distance, and the proportion of people wearing masks incorrectly. The results show that with the increase of social distances, the total exposure time and the number of high-risk exposures do not always decrease, but increase in some cases. The presence or absence of obstacles in the evacuation scene has no significant difference in the effects on total exposure time and the number of high-risk exposures. During the evacuation behavior of college students in railway station, choosing the appropriate number of lines can effectively reduce the total exposure time and the number of high-risk exposures. Finally, some policy suggestions are proposed to reduce the risk of virus transmission in the railway station evacuation process, such as choosing dynamic and reasonable social distance and the number of queues, and reducing obstacles.

Risk assessment for long- and short-range airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2, indoors and outdoors

Preventive measures to reduce infection are needed to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and prepare for a possible endemic phase. Current prophylactic vaccines are highly effective to prevent disease but lose their ability to reduce viral transmission as viral evolution leads to increasing immune escape. Long-term proactive public health policies must therefore complement vaccination with available nonpharmaceutical interventions aiming to reduce the viral transmission risk in public spaces. Here, we revisit the quantitative assessment of airborne transmission risk, considering asymptotic limits that considerably simplify its expression. We show that the aerosol transmission risk is the product of three factors: a biological factor that depends on the viral strain, a hydrodynamical factor defined as the ratio of concentration in viral particles between inhaled and exhaled air, and a face mask filtering factor. The short-range contribution to the risk, present both indoors and outdoors, is related to the turbulent dispersion of exhaled aerosols by air drafts and by convection (indoors), or by the wind (outdoors). We show experimentally that airborne droplets and CO2 molecules present the same dispersion. As a consequence, the dilution factor, and therefore the risk, can be measured quantitatively using the CO2 concentration, regardless of the room volume, the flow rate of fresh air, and the occupancy. We show that the dispersion cone leads to a concentration in viral particles, and therefore a short-range transmission risk, inversely proportional to the squared distance to an infected person and to the flow velocity. The aerosolization criterion derived as an intermediate result, which compares the Stokes relaxation time to the Lagrangian time-scale, may find application for a broad class of aerosol-borne pathogens and pollutants.

Pedestrian bottleneck flow when keeping a prescribed physical distance

We present experimental results of pedestrian evacuations through a narrow door under a prescribed safety distancing of either 1.5 or 2 meters. In this situation, flow rate augments with pedestrian velocity due to a complete absence of flow interruptions or clogs. Accordingly, the evacuation improves when the prescribed physical distance is reduced, as this implies shortening the time lapses between the exit of consecutive pedestrians. In addition, the analysis of pedestrian trajectories reveals that the distance to the first neighbor in the evacuation process is rather similar to the one obtained when pedestrians were just roaming within the arena, hence suggesting that this magnitude depends more on the crowd state (desired speed, prescribed safety distance, etc.) than on the geometry where the pedestrian flow takes place. Also, an important difference in pedestrian behavior is observed when people are asked to walk at different speeds: whereas slow pedestrians evidence a clear preference for stop-and-go motion, fast walkers display detouring and stop-and-go behavior roughly in the same proportion.

Crowd dynamics research in the era of Covid-19 pandemic: Challenges and opportunities

With the issues of crowd control and physical distancing becoming central to disease prevention measures, one would expect that crowd research should become a focus of attention during the Covid-19 pandemic era. However, I will show, based on a variety of metrics, that not only has this not been the case, but also, the first two years of the pandemic have posed an undisputable setback to the development and growth of crowd science. Without intervention, this could potentially aggravate further and cause a long-lasting recession in this field. This article, in addition to documenting and highlighting this issue, aims to outline potential avenues through which crowd research can reshape itself in the era of Covid-19 pandemic, maintain its pre-pandemic momentum and even further expand the diversity of its topics. Despite significant changes that the pandemic has brought to human life, issues related to congregation and mobility of pedestrians, building fires, crowd incidents, rallying crowds and the like have not disappeared from societies and remain relevant. Moreover, the diversity of pandemic-related problems itself creates a rich ground for making novel scientific discoveries. This could provide grounds for establishing fresh dimensions in crowd dynamics research. These potential new dimensions extend to all areas of this field including numerical and experimental investigations, crowd psychology and applications of computer vision and artificial intelligence methods in crowd management. The Covid-19 pandemic may have posed challenges to crowd researchers but has also created ample potential opportunities. This is further evidenced by reviewing efforts taken thus far in pandemic-related crowd research.

COVID-19 lockdown and particle exposure of road users

INTRODUCTION

In 2020, due to the outbreak of COVID-19, there has been an unprecedented decrease in road traffic in almost all urbanized areas around the globe. This has undoubtedly affected the ambient air quality.

METHODS

In this study mobile and fixed-site measurements of aerosol particle concentrations in the ambient air in one of the busiest streets in Lublin, a mid-sized city in Central Europe (Poland) during the COVID-19 lockdown in the spring of 2020 were performed. Based on the measurements particle doses received by road users during different times of the day were assessed. The obtained results were compared with corresponding pre-COVID-19 measurements also performed in the spring which were available only from 2017.

RESULTS

During lockdown the mass concentration of traffic-related submicrometer PM1 particles and number concentration of ultrafine PN0.1 particles was significantly reduced. This resulted in a decrease of doses inhaled by road users as well as of particle doses deposited in their respiratory tracks. The greatest reductions of respectively over 2 times and over 5 times were observed during the day for total particles and traffic-related particles. Smaller reductions indicating the existence of relatively intensive non-traffic emissions were reported at night.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial decrease in traffic intensity in the city caused by lockdown restrictions resulted in a significant reduction in the concentration of vehicle-generated particles in the ambient air. This in turn could have resulted in smaller doses inhaled by the inhabitants, specifically road users, which should have a positive impact on their health.

Total shutdowns, targeted restrictions, or individual responsibility: How to promote social distancing in the COVID-19 Era?

We examine the impact of early state and local COVID-19 policies to encourage social distancing. Outcomes are daily foot traffic at establishments spanning ten key industries, across which transmission risk varies substantially. Policies include state of emergency declarations, blunt general restrictions such as stay-at-home (SAH) orders, and targeted rules such as restrictions on bars, restaurants, entertainment venues, and schools. Exploiting variation in the timing of policies in difference-in-difference models, we show that much of the decline in foot traffic early in the pandemic was due to private precautionary behavior. SAH orders explain almost none of the foot traffic decline in industries with high risk of virus transmission, but they do explain a substantial share of the decline in moderate- to low-risk industries such as outdoor sports and visits to parks. Targeted restrictions tend to impact intended industries, as well as complementary ones. We show that the impact of targeted restrictions is largest in counties with no SAH restrictions, suggesting that better targeting of public restrictions can have important efficiency gains.