Chronologic changes in clinical and survival features of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma since 2000: A single-center experience with 2,029 patients

Interpretable Prognostic Modeling for Postoperative Pancreatic Cancer Using Multi-machine Learning and Habitat Radiomics: A Multi-center Study

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

Accurate risk stratification is critical for guiding personalized treatment in resectable pancreatic cancer (RPC). This retrospective study assessed the utility of habitat radiomics for predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS) in RPC patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 455 RPC patients were divided into training and external test sets from January 2018 to July 2024. Tumors were segmented into subregions using habitat radiomics to capture localized heterogeneity. Seven machine learning models, including random survival forest (RSF), were compared using Harrell's C-index. The optimal model underwent further validation through time-dependent ROC and Kaplan-Meier (KM) analyses. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) and survival local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (SurvLIME) were applied to enhance model interpretability.

RESULTS

The RSF model based on habitat radiomics achieved a C-index of 0.828 in the training cohort and 0.702, 0.680 in external test sets, outperforming whole-tumor radiomics (p<0.05). Time-dependent ROC analysis showed AUCs of 0.71, 0.83, and 0.79 at 0.5, 1, and 2 years in the first test set, and 0.65, 0.79, and 0.75 in the second test set. KM analysis revealed that the predicted low-risk groups had significantly longer RFS compared to the predicted high-risk groups in both external test sets (all p<0.05). Interpretability analysis identified key variables, including Feature 1, Feature 5, Feature 2, and Feature 4 from Habitat Subregion 1, and Feature 3 from Habitat Subregion 3.

CONCLUSION

The habitat radiomics RSF machine learning model improves prognostic accuracy and interpretability for postoperative RPC, providing a promising tool for personalized management.

Multiscale deep learning radiomics for predicting recurrence-free survival in pancreatic cancer: A multicenter study

PURPOSE

This multicenter study aimed to develop and validate a multiscale deep learning radiomics nomogram for predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 469 PDAC patients from four hospitals were divided into training and test sets. Handcrafted radiomics and deep learning (DL) features were extracted from optimal regions of interest, encompassing both intratumoral and peritumoral areas. Univariate Cox regression, LASSO regression, and multivariate Cox regression selected features for three image signatures (intratumoral, peritumoral radiomics, and DL). A multiscale nomogram was constructed and validated against the 8th AJCC staging system.

RESULTS

The 4 mm peritumoral VOI yielded the best radiomics prediction, while a 15 mm expansion was optimal for deep learning. The multiscale nomogram demonstrated a C-index of 0.82 (95 % CI: 0.78-0.85) in the training set and 0.70 (95 % CI: 0.64-0.76) in the external test 1 (high-volume hospital), with the external test 2 (low-volume hospital) showing a C-index of 0.78 (95 % CI: 0.65-0.91). These outperformed the AJCC system's C-index (0.54-0.57). The area under the curve (AUC) for recurrence prediction at 0.5, 1, and 2 years was 0.89, 0.94, and 0.89 in the training set, with AUC values ranging from 0.75 to 0.97 in the external validation sets, consistently surpassing the AJCC system across all sets. Kaplan-Meier analysis confirmed significant differences in prognosis between high- and low-risk groups (P < 0.01 across all cohorts).

CONCLUSION

The multiscale nomogram effectively stratifies recurrence risk in PDAC patients, enhancing presurgical clinical decision-making and potentially improving patient outcomes.

Prognostic impact of circulating tumor DNA detection in portal and peripheral blood in resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients

In PDAC patients, ctDNA detection's prognostic significance needs validation especially in resected patients. This study investigated ctDNA kinetics in portal and peripheral blood before and after resection, and whether tissue mobilization during surgery influences ctDNA detection. In this single-center prospective cohort, portal and peripheral blood were drawn during pancreaticoduodenectomy before and after tissue mobilization, during 12 postoperative months and were associated with overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS) and CA19-9 (secondary endpoints). Tumor mutations were identified using next-generation-sequencing and ctDNA detected by digital droplet PCR. From 2018 to 2022, 34 patients were included. The 2-year RFS and OS were 47.6%(95%CI[29.5; 63.6]) and 65.7%(95%CI[46.5; 79.4]) respectively. Intraoperatively, ctDNA detection in portal or peripheral blood was associated with worse RFS (HR[95%CI]3.26[1.26; 8.45],p = 0.010) and OS (HR[95%CI]5.46[1.65;18.01],p = 0.002). Portal vein sampling did not improve ctDNA detection. CtDNA levels were increased by 2.5-fold (p = 0.031) in peripheral blood after tissue mobilization but not significantly linked to RFS or OS. Detecting ctDNA intraoperatively was correlated with poorer RFS (HR [95% CI] 3.26 [1.26;8.45], p = 0.010) and 0S (HR [95% CI] 5.46 [1.65;18.01], p = 0.002). Portal vein sampling did not improve ctDNA detection. Tissue mobilization increases ctDNA levels. Intraoperative detection of ctDNA is associated with a worse prognosis.

Extranodal extension influences prognosis in pancreatic body/tail cancer: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Extranodal extension (ENE) is an established prognostic factor in various malignancies, affecting survival in pancreatic head cancer (PHC). However, its significance in pancreatic body/tail cancer (PBTC) remains unclear. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the impact of ENE on PTBC prognosis.

METHODS

We analyzed data collected from electronic medical records of patients with PBTC who underwent distal pancreatectomy at a single center between January 2011 and December 2015. The patients were categorized based on ENE presence and prognostic implications were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

PBTC cases involving lymph node (LN) metastasis and ENE exhibited significantly lower disease-free (DFS) and overall survival (OS) rates compared to cases without LN metastasis or ENE (median DFS; N0, 23 months; LN+/ENE-, 10 months; LN+/ENE+, 5 months; p < .001). No statistically significant difference was observed in DFS and OS rates between patients with N1/N2 in the group without ENE and those with ENE+. Multivariate analysis confirmed ENE as a significant adverse prognostic factor.

CONCLUSIONS

ENE significantly predicts poor prognosis in PBTC, particularly in cases with nodal metastasis. The current cancer staging system for PBTC should incorporate ENE status. Moreover, different staging systems should be considered for PHC and PBTC.

Nomogram model for predicting early recurrence for resectable pancreatic cancer: A multicenter study

Pancreatic cancer is a highly aggressive malignancy that is characterized by early metastasis, high recurrence, and therapy resistance. Early recurrence after surgery is one of the important reasons affecting the prognosis of pancreatic cancer. This study aimed to establish an accurate preoperative nomogram model for predicting early recurrence (ER) for resectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma. We retrospectively analyzed patients who underwent pancreatectomy for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma between January 2011 and December 2020. The training set consisted of 604 patients, while the validation set included 222 patients. Survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier curves. The factors influencing early recurrence of resectable pancreatic cancer after surgery were investigated, then the predictive model for early recurrence was established, and subsequently the predictive model was validated based on the data of the validation group. The preoperative risk factors for ER included a Charlson age-comorbidity index ≥ 4 (odds ratio [OR]: 0.628), tumor size > 3.0 cm on computed tomography (OR: 0.628), presence of clinical symptoms (OR: 0.515), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 > 181.3 U/mL (OR 0.396), and carcinoembryonic antigen > 6.01 (OR: 0.440). The area under the curve (AUC) of the predictive model in the training group was 0.711 (95% confidence interval: 0.669-0.752), while it reached 0.730 (95% CI: 0.663-0.797) in the validation group. The predictive model may enable the prediction of the risk of postoperative ER in patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, thereby optimizing preoperative decision-making for effective treatment.

Deep learning-based prediction of post-pancreaticoduodenectomy pancreatic fistula

Postoperative pancreatic fistula is a life-threatening complication with an unmet need for accurate prediction. This study was aimed to develop preoperative artificial intelligence-based prediction models. Patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy were enrolled and stratified into model development and validation sets by surgery between 2016 and 2017 or in 2018, respectively. Machine learning models based on clinical and body composition data, and deep learning models based on computed tomographic data, were developed, combined by ensemble voting, and final models were selected comparison with earlier model. Among the 1333 participants (training, n = 881; test, n = 452), postoperative pancreatic fistula occurred in 421 (47.8%) and 134 (31.8%) and clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula occurred in 59 (6.7%) and 27 (6.0%) participants in the training and test datasets, respectively. In the test dataset, the area under the receiver operating curve [AUC (95% confidence interval)] of the selected preoperative model for predicting all and clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula was 0.75 (0.71-0.80) and 0.68 (0.58-0.78). The ensemble model showed better predictive performance than the individual ML and DL models.

A novel combined carbohydrate antigen 19-9 and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio score can predict early recurrence of resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

PURPOSE

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) often recurs early after radical resection, which causes a poor prognosis. This study aimed to establish a scoring model to assess the optimal treatment in patients who underwent surgery for PDAC.

METHODS

This single-center retrospective study included 127 patients who underwent radical resection for PDAC between 2005 and 2021. Early recurrence (ER) was defined as recurrence within 12 months after resection. The predictive effect for ER was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of preoperative parameters.

RESULTS

ER occurred in 43 (33.9%) patients. The ER group had a significantly worse prognosis than the non-ER group (p < 0.0001). The carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) level and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) were the strongest diagnostic factors (areas under the ROC curves: 0.74 and 0.68, respectively). The ER prediction score was calculated using optimal cutoff values. A higher CA19-9-LMR score was associated with a worse prognosis in terms of the overall and recurrence-free survival (p = 0.0017 and p < 0.0001, respectively). A multivariate analysis identified a high CA19-9-LMR score as an independent predictor of ER.

CONCLUSIONS

The CA19-9-LMR scoring model can predict ER after surgery and is applicable for risk stratification in the assessment of patients with resectable PDAC.

Nomogram for predicting the preoperative lymph node metastasis in resectable pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

Lymph node metastasis (LNM) is a critical prognostic factor in resectable pancreatic cancer (PC) patients, determining treatment strategies. This study aimed to develop a clinical model to adequately and accurately predict the risk of LNM in PC patients.

METHODS

13,200 resectable PC patients were enrolled from the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database, and randomly divided into a training group and an internal validation group at a ratio of 7:3. An independent group (n = 62) obtained from The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University was enrolled as the external validation group. The univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to screen independent risk factors for LNM. The minimum Akaike's information criterion (AIC) was performed to select the optimal model parameters and construct a nomogram for assessing the risk of LNM. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA). In addition, an online web calculator was designed to assess the risk of LNM.

RESULT

A total of six risk predictors (including age at diagnosis, race, primary site, grade, histology, and T-stage) were identified and included in the nomogram. The areas under the curves (AUCs) [95% confidential interval (CI)] were 0.711 (95%CI: 0.700-0.722), 0.700 (95%CI: 0.683-0.717), and 0.845 (95%CI: 0.749-0.942) in the training, internal validation and external validation groups, respectively. The calibration curves showed satisfied consistency between nomogram-predicted LNM and actual observed LNM. The concordance indexes (C-indexes) in the training, internal, and external validation sets were 0.689, 0.686, and 0.752, respectively. The DCA curves of the nomogram demonstrated good clinical utility.

CONCLUSION

We constructed a nomogram model for predicting LNM in pancreatic cancer patients, which may help oncologists and surgeons to choose more individualized clinical treatment strategies and make better clinical decisions.

A new scoring system with simple preoperative parameters as predictors of early recurrence of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) often recurs early after radical resection, and such early recurrence (ER) is associated with a poor prognosis. Predicting ER is useful for determining the optimal treatment.

METHODS

One hundred fifty-three patients who underwent pancreatectomy for PDAC were divided into an ER group (n = 54) and non-ER group (n = 99). Clinicopathological factors were compared between the groups, and the predictors of ER and prognosis after PDAC resection were examined.

RESULTS

The ER group had a higher platelet count, higher platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), higher preoperative CA19-9 concentration, higher SPan-1 concentration, larger tumor diameter, and more lymph node metastasis. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis identified cut-off values for PLR, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), SPan-1, and tumor diameter. In the multivariate analysis, a high PLR, high CA19-9, and tumor diameter of >3.1 cm were independent predictors of ER after resection (all p < 0.05). When the parameter exceeded the cut-off level, 1 point was given, and the total score of the three factors was defined as the ER prediction score. Next, our new ER prediction model using PLR, CA19-9 and tumor diameter (Logit(p) = 1.6 + 1.2 × high PLR + 0.7 × high CA19-9 + 0.5 × tumor diameter > 3.1cm) distinguished ER with an area under the curve of 0.763, a sensitivity of 85.2%, and a specificity of 55.6%.

CONCLUSIONS

ER after resection of PDAC can be predicted by calculation of a score using the preoperative serum CA19-9 concentration, PLR, and tumor diameter.

Preoperative recurrence prediction in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma after radical resection using radiomics of diagnostic computed tomography

BACKGROUND

The high recurrence rate after radical resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) leads to its poor prognosis. We aimed to develop a model to preoperatively predict the risk of recurrence based on computed tomography (CT) radiomics and multiple clinical parameters.

METHODS

Datasets were retrospectively collected and analysed of 220 PDAC patients who underwent contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT) and received radical resection at 3 institutions in China between 2013 and 2017, with 153 from one institution as a training set, the remaining 67 as a validation set. For each patient, CT radiomics features were extracted from intratumoral and peritumoral regions to establish intratumoral, peritumoral and combined radiomics models using artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm. By incorporating clinical factors, radiomics-clinical nomograms were finally built by multivariable logistic regression analysis to predict 1- and 2-year recurrence risk.

FINDINGS

The developed radiomics model integrating intratumoral and peritumoral radiomics features was superior to the conventionally constructed model merely using intratumoral radiomics features. Further, radiomics-clinical nomograms outperformed other models in predicting 1-year recurrence with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.916 (95%CI, 0.860-0.955) in the training set and 0.764 (95%CI, 0.644-0.859) in the validation set, and 2-year recurrence with an AUROC of 0.872 (95%CI: 0.809-0.921) in the training set and 0.773 (95%CI, 0.654-0.866) in the validation set.

INTERPRETATION

This study has developed and externally validated a radiomics-clinical nomogram integrating intra- and peritumoral CT radiomics signature as well as clinical factors to predict the recurrence risk of PDAC after radical resection, which will facilitate optimized and individualized treatment strategies.

FUNDING

This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number: 2018YFE0114800], the General Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number: 81772562, 2017; 81871351, 2018], the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [grant number: 2021FZZX005-08], and Zhejiang Provincial Key Projects of Technology Research [grant number: WKJ-ZJ-2033].

Usefulness of Inflammation-Based Prognostic Scores in Patients with Surgically Treated Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

In this study, we evaluated the prognostic value of inflammation-based prognostic scores in patients undergoing curative surgery for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). A retrospective analysis was conducted for 914 patients undergoing curative surgical resection for PDAC between January 2011 and April 2016. Inflammation-based scores of modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, and platelet-lymphocyte ratio were assessed. mGPS was classified as high (1 or 2) or low (0). Median age was 63 (range, 33–88) years; 538 patients (58.9%) were male. A high mGPS was independently associated with poor overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) (median OS: 25.4 months vs. 20.4 months, p = 0.001; median DFS: 11.6 months vs. 9.3 months, p = 0.002), poor OS in patients with TNM stage I PDAC (44 months vs. 24.8 months, p = 0.001), and poor OS and DFS in patients with tumors located at the pancreatic head or uncinate process (OS: 25.4 months vs. 20.4 months; p = 0.007, DFS: 11.4 months vs. 8.87 months; p = 0.005). Preoperative mGPS was a significant prognostic factor for PDAC after curative resection; thus, mGPS can be a useful prognostic predictive factor in patients with TNM stage I PDAC, especially for tumors located at the head and uncinate.

A comparison of minimally invasive vs open distal pancreatectomy for resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: Propensity score matching analysis

BACKGROUND

Owing to concerns regarding adequate oncological outcomes and perioperative complications, minimally invasive distal pancreatectomy (MIDP) for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has limited generalizability. The aim of this study was to assess the perioperative and oncologic outcomes of MIDP compared with open distal pancreatectomy (ODP) for resectable PDAC after propensity score matching (PSM).

METHODS

The patients who underwent MIDP and ODP for PDAC between January 2010 and December 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Demographics, perioperative outcomes, pathological outcomes, and overall and disease-free survival data were collected to compare MIDP and ODP. After PSM, perioperative and oncologic outcomes were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 156 MIDP patients were compared with 156 ODP patients for resectable PDAC after PSM. Tumor size, TNM stage, differentiation, harvested lymph nodes, and positive lymph nodes were not different except for R1 resection and lymphovascular invasion between the MIDP and ODP groups. Operation times, overall complications, POPF, and adjuvant treatment were also not different between the two groups. The MIDP group had shorter hospital stays (10.0 vs 13.4 days, P < 0.001) and shorter interval times from surgery to adjuvant treatment (37.6 days vs 46.0 days, P = 0.002) than the ODP group. The MIDP group had better overall survival (34.9 vs 24.5 months, P = 0.012) and disease-free survival (16.2 vs 10.3 months, P = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Minimally invasive distal pancreatectomy has advantages with respect to postoperative hospital stay, interval between surgery, and adjuvant treatment. MIDP is associated with the possibility of improved survival rate for resectable PDAC.

Clinical Characteristics of Resected Acinar Cell Carcinoma of the Pancreas: A Korean Multi-Institutional Study

Simple Summary

Pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma accounts for less than 1% of primary pancreatic neoplasms. Because of its rarity, its characteristics and clinical outcomes remain unclear. Treatment strategies for pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma have relied on those of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. In previous studies, it has been difficult to identify its characteristics due to the lack of cohort numbers in single institutional studies with detailed data and the lack of detailed data in large cohort multi-institutional studies. This retrospective multicenter cohort used a database founded in 2015 by the Korean Association of Hepato-Biliary Pancreatic Surgery. This database has collected nationwide patient data with details. In the present study, we aimed to better understand clinical outcomes of resected pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma and to lay the groundwork for establishing proper treatment strategies.

Abstract

Given the rare incidence of pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma (PACC), its post-resection clinical outcomes remain unclear. Treatment strategies for PACC have relied on those of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). The present study retrospectively investigated clinicopathologic characteristics of resected PACC registered in the Korea Tumor Registry System Biliary Pancreas database. Among 59 patients with a mean age of 59.2 years and a male predominance (83.1%), 43, 5, 7, and 4 had pure PACC, ductal differentiations, mixed neuroendocrine carcinomas, and intraductal and papillary variants, respectively. The mean tumor size was 4.6 cm, consisting of eight at T1, 26 at T2, and 25 at T3 stages. Metastasis to regional lymph node was identified in 15 (25.4%) patients. Thirty-one (52.5%) patients received adjuvant therapy. Five-year survival rate was 57.4%. The median survival was 78.8 months. In survival comparison according to the stage with AJCC system, N stage (lymph node metastasis), but not T stage, showed significant differences (p = 0.027). Resected PACC appeared to have clinical outcomes distinct from those of PDAC in this nationwide study. Therefore, large-scale multinational studies are needed to overcome the rarity of PACC and to establish an appropriate treatment strategies and staging system.

Development of a Biomarker-Based Scoring System Predicting Early Recurrence of Resectable Pancreatic Duct Adenocarcinoma

Background

Resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (R-PDAC) often recurs early after radical resection, which is associated with poor prognosis. Predicting early recurrence preoperatively is useful for determining the optimal treatment.

Patients and methods

One hundred and seventy-eight patients diagnosed with R-PDAC on computed tomography (CT) imaging and undergoing radical resection at Hirosaki University Hospital from 2005 to 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients with recurrence within 6 months after resection formed the early recurrence (ER) group, while other patients constituted the non-early recurrence (non-ER) group. Early recurrence prediction score (ERP score) was developed using preoperative parameters.

Results

ER was observed in 45 patients (25.3%). The ER group had significantly higher preoperative CA19-9 (p = 0.03), serum SPan-1 (p = 0.006), and CT tumor diameter (p = 0.01) compared with the non-ER group. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis identified cutoff values for CA19-9 (133 U/mL), SPan-1 (78.2 U/mL), and preoperative tumor diameter (23 mm). When the parameter exceeded the cutoff level, 1 point was given, and the total score of the three factors was defined as the ERP score. The group with an ERP score of 3 had postoperative recurrence-free survival (RFS) of 5.5 months (95% CI 3.02–7.98). Multivariate analysis for ER-related perioperative and surgical factors identified ERP score of 3 [odds ratio (OR) 4.63 (95% CI 1.82–11.78), p = 0.0013] and R1 resection [OR 3.20 (95% CI 1.01–10.17), p = 0.049] as independent predictors of ER.

Conclusions

For R-PDAC, ER could be predicted by the scoring system using preoperative serum CA19-9 and SPan-1 levels and CT tumor diameter, which may have great significance in identifying patients with poor prognoses and avoiding unnecessary surgery.

Glucose Tolerance after Pancreatectomy: A Prospective Observational Follow-Up Study of Pancreaticoduodenectomy and Distal Pancreatectomy

BACKGROUND

Effects of pancreatectomy on glucose tolerance have not been clarified, and evidence regarding the difference in postoperative glucose tolerance between pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) and distal pancreatectomy (DP) is lacking.

STUDY DESIGN

This prospective, single-center observational study analyzed 40 patients undergoing PD and 29 patients undergoing DP (Clinical trial registry number UMIN000008122). Glucose tolerance, including insulin secretion (Δ C-peptide immunoreactivity, ΔCPR) and insulin resistance (homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, HOMA-IR) were assessed before and 1 month after pancreatectomy using the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and glucagon stimulation test. We assessed long-term hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels in patients, with a follow-up time of 3 years.

RESULTS

Percentages of patients diagnosed with abnormal OGTT decreased after PD (from 12 [30%] to 7 [17.5%] of 40 patients, p = 0.096); however, they increased after DP (from 4 [13.8%] to 8 [27.6%] of 29 patients, p = 0.103), although the changes were not statistically significant. ΔCPR decreased after both PD (from 3.2 to 1.0 ng/mL, p < 0.001) and DP (from 3.3 to 1.8 ng/mL, p < 0.001). HOMA-IR decreased after PD (from 1.10 to 0.68, p < 0.001), but did not change after DP (1.10 and 1.07, p = 0.42). Median HbA1c level was higher after DP than after PD for up to 3 years, but the differences were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

In comparisons of pre- and 1 month post-pancreatectomy data, glucose tolerance showed improvement after PD, whereas it worsened after DP. Insulin secretion decreased after both PD and DP. Insulin resistance improved after PD, but did not change after DP. Further studies are warranted to clarify mechanisms of improved insulin resistance after PD.

Usefulness of artificial intelligence for predicting recurrence following surgery for pancreatic cancer: Retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

or Purpose: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a leading cause of mortality in the world with the overall 5-year survival rate of 6%. The survival of patients with PDAC is closely related to recurrence and therefore it is necessary to identify the risk factors for recurrence. This study uses artificial intelligence approaches and multi-center registry data to analyze the recurrence of pancreatic cancer after surgery and its major determinants.

METHODS

Data came from 4846 patients enrolled in a multi-center registry system, the Korea Tumor Registry System (KOTUS). The random forest and the Cox proportional-hazards model (the Cox model) were applied and compared for the prediction of disease-free survival. Variable importance, the contribution of a variable for the performance of the model, was used for identifying major predictors of disease-free survival after surgery. The C-Index was introduced as a criterion for validating the models trained.

RESULTS

Based on variable importance from the random forest, major predictors of disease-free survival after surgery were tumor size (0.00310), tumor grade (0.00211), TNM stage (0.00211), T stage (0.00146) and lymphovascular invasion (0.00125). The coefficients of these variables were statistically significant in the Cox model (p < 0.05). The C-Index averages of the random forest and the Cox model were 0.6805 and 0.7738, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first artificial-intelligence study with multi-center registry data to predict disease-free survival after the surgery of pancreatic cancer. The findings of this methodological study demonstrate that artificial intelligence can provide a valuable decision-support system for treating patients undergoing surgery for pancreatic cancer. However, at present, further studies are needed to demonstrate the actual benefit of applying machine learning algorithms in clinical practice.

Postoperative morbidity following pancreatic cancer surgery is significantly associated with worse overall patient survival; systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKROUND

The influence of postoperative morbidity on survival after potentially curative resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) remains unclear.

METHODS

Medline, Web of Science and Cochrane Library were searched for studies reporting survival in patients with and without complications, defined according to the Clavien-Dindo classification, after primary, potentially curative resection for pancreatic cancer followed by adjuvant treatment. Meta-analysis was performed using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

Fourteen retrospective cohort studies comprising a total of 7.604 patients with an overall complication rate of 40.8% (n = 3.103 patients) were included. Median overall survival for the entire patient cohort ranged from 15.5 to 24 months. Overall survival in patients with severe postoperative complications ranged from 7.1 to 37.1 months and was significantly worse compared to the overall survival in patients without severe complications ranging from 16.5 to 38.2 months. Postoperative complication rates ranged from 24.3% to 64%, severe (Clavien-Dindo ≥ III) complication rates from 4.2% to 31%. Results sufficient for meta-analysis were reported by ten studies, representing 6.028 patients. Meta-analysis showed reduced overall survival following any complication (summary adjusted HR 1.47; 95% CI 1.23-1.76, p < 0.0001). Hazard of death was 1.5 times higher in patients experiencing severe postoperative complications than in patients without severe complications (summary adjusted HR 1.45; 95% CI 1.13-1.85, p = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Postoperative complications after potentially curative resection of PDAC are significantly associated with worse overall patient survival.

Essential updates 2018/2019: Current topics in the surgical treatment of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is highly malignant. While cancers in other organs have shown clear improvements in 5-year survival, the 5-year survival rate of pancreatic cancer is approximately 10%. Early relapse and metastasis are not uncommon, making it difficult to achieve an acceptable prognosis even after complete surgical resection of the pancreas. Studies have been performed on various treatments to improve the prognosis of PDAC, and multidisciplinary approaches including non-surgical treatments have led to gradual improvement. In the present literature review, we have described the significance of anatomical and biological resectability criteria, the concept of R0 resection in surgical treatment, the feasibility of minimally invasive surgery, the remarkable development of perioperative chemotherapy, the effectiveness of conversion surgery for unresectable PDAC, and ongoing challenges in PDAC treatment. We also provide an essential update on these subjects by focusing on recent trends and topics.

National survey of Korean hepatobiliary-pancreatic surgeons on attitudes about the enhanced recovery after surgery protocol

Backgrounds/Aims

The purpose of this study was to investigate attitudes regarding the Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) protocol of hepato-biliary-pancreatic (HBP) surgeons in Korea and the extent to which they use the protocol for perioperative management.

Methods

An online survey was conducted among members of the Korean Association of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery (KAHBPS) for eight weeks beginning on August 2019. The questionnaire, which was written in Korean, was based on the latest ERAS guidelines. Total responses were collected from 127 surgeons.

Results

Of the 127 total respondents, the largest proportion (44.9%) were working in Seoul. In terms of established in-hospital clinical pathways (CP), 19.7% of the participating surgeons had and followed a CP in pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) and 21.3% in hepatectomy. Regarding the ERAS protocol for each surgery, four items (18.2%) regarding PD and seven items (35.0%) related to hepatectomy were followed by more than 50% of respondents.

Conclusions

ERAS guidelines are one of the consensuses for better recovery in perioperative management of patients undergoing major surgeries and encompass the overall process of patient recovery including patient education, pain control, physiologic balance, and perioperative nutrition. A novel project is needed to successfully implement an evidence-based enhanced recovery strategy.

The prognostic value of modified Glasgow Prognostic Score in pancreatic cancer: a meta-analysis

Background

Several studies were conducted to explore the prognostic value of modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) in pancreatic cancer, which reported contradictory results. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to summarize and further investigate the correlation between mGPS and overall survival (OS) in pancreatic cancer.

Methods

A systematic literature search was performed in PubMed, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, Cochrane library databases and OVID to identify eligible studies published from Jan 1, 2011 to June 20, 2020. Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to detect the prognostic significance of mGPS in patients with pancreatic cancer.

Results

A total of 222 non-repetitive studies were identified, and 20 related studies that explored the association between survival outcomes and mGPS in pancreatic cancer patients were finally enrolled in this meta-analysis. The results showed a significant correlation between high level of mGPS and poor OS (HR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.20-1.89, P < 0.0001). Similar results were observed in the subgroup analyses based on the treatment regimen and research region.

Conclusions

Our study suggested the close association between poor prognosis and high level of mGPS, which will be helpful for future clinical applications in patients with pancreatic cancer.

Arterial resection during pancreatectomy for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma with arterial invasion: A single-center experience with 109 patients

Pancreatectomy for pancreatic cancer with arterial invasion is controversial and performed infrequently. As its indication evolves and neoadjuvant chemotherapy also evolves, it is meaningful to identify short- and long-term outcomes of pancreatectomy with arterial resection (AR). This study aimed to retrospectively analyze the clinical outcomes of pancreatectomy with AR for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.Patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma treated with pancreatectomy with AR at our institute between January 2000 and April 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Operative outcome and survival were compared according to the presence of neoadjuvant chemotherapy.This study included 109 patients (38 underwent surgery after neoadjuvant chemotherapy, 71 underwent upfront surgery). The median hospital stay was 17 (interquartile range, 12-26.5) days. Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (grade B or C) occurred in 14 patients (12.8%). The major morbidity (≥grade III) and mortality rates were 26.6% and 0.9%, respectively. R0 resection was achieved in 80 patients (73.4%). Microscopic actual tumor invasion into the arterial wall was identified in 25 patients (22.9%). The median overall survival (OS) of all patients was 18.4 months. The neoadjuvant chemotherapy group showed better OS than the upfront surgery group, without statistical significance (25.3 vs 16.2 months, P = .06). Progression-free survival was better in patients with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (13.2 vs 7.1 months, P = .01). Patients with partial response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy showed better OS than those with stable disease (33.7 vs 17.5 months, P = .04).Pancreatectomy with AR for advanced pancreatic cancer showed acceptable procedure-related morbidity and mortality. A survival benefit of neoadjuvant chemotherapy was identified, compared to upfront surgery.

Three Thousand Consecutive Pancreaticoduodenectomies in a Tertiary Cancer Center: A Retrospective Observational Study

(1) Aim: To evaluate clinicopathological features and postoperative outcomes including survival in patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) for periampullary diseases. (2) Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 3078 cases of PD performed in our center for 25 years. Periampullary diseases were divided into benign and malignancy groups. All cases were also classified by location. The time of 25 years was divided to different periods (5 years per period) to compare outcomes. Overall survival was compared between subdivided periods. (3) Results: Hospitalization became significantly shorter from 28.0 days in the 1st period to 13.8 days in the 5th period. Overall complication rate was significantly increased since the 3rd period. The rate without postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) was high at 98.7% in the 1st period. This might be because drain amylase on the 3rd day after PD was not routinely checked in the past. Thus, POPF was not detected. In survival analysis of adenocarcinoma of pancreas, bile duct, and ampulla, overall survival was found to be improved significantly in recent years. (4) Conclusions: Our study revealed that outcomes were improved with increasing number of PDs performed. Although POPF and overall complications showed increases more recently, those were detected and managed, resulting in shorter hospitalization and improved outcomes.

The Effect of Fibrinogen/Thrombin-Coated Collagen Patch (TachoSil®) Application in Pancreaticojejunostomy for Prevention of Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreaticoduodenectomy: A Randomized Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND

Fibrin sealants and topical glue have been studied to reduce the incidence of postoperative pancreatic fistulas (POPF) after pancreatico-enteric anastomosis, but a definitive innovation is still needed. We aim to evaluate the effectiveness of fibrin sealant patch applied to pancreatico-enteric anastomosis to reduce postoperative complications, including POPF.

METHODS

This study was a single-center, prospective, randomized, phase IV trial involving three pancreaticobiliary surgeons. The primary outcome was POPF; secondary outcomes included complications, drain removal days, hospital stay, readmission rate, and cost. Risk factors for POPF were identified by logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 124 patients were enrolled. Biochemical leakage (BL) or POPF occurred in 16 patients (25.8%) in the intervention group and 23 patients (37.1%) in the control group (no statistical significance). Clinically relevant POPF occurred in 4 patients (6.5%) in both the intervention and control groups (p = 1.000). Hospital stay (11.6 days vs. 12.1 days, p = 0.585) and drain removal days (5.7 days vs. 5.3 days, p = 0.281) were not statistically different between two groups. Complication rates were not different between the two groups (p = 0.506); nor were readmission rates (12.9% vs. 11.3%, p = 1.000) or cost ($13,549 vs. $15,038, p = 0.103). In multivariable analysis, age and soft pancreas texture were independent risk factors for BL or POPF in this study. Applying fibrin sealant patch is not a negative risk factor, but the p value may indicate a likelihood of reducing the incidence of BL (p = 0.084).

CONCLUSIONS

Fibrin sealant patches after pancreaticojejunostomy did not reduce the incidence of POPF or other postoperative complications. This study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03269955).

Predictive Nomogram for Early Recurrence after Pancreatectomy in Resectable Pancreatic Cancer: Risk Classification Using Preoperative Clinicopathologic Factors

The survival of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is closely related to recurrence. It is necessary to classify the risk factors for early recurrence and to develop a tool for predicting the initial outcome after surgery. Among patients with resected resectable PDAC at Samsung Medical Center (Seoul, Korea) between January 2007 and December 2016, 631 patients were classified as the training set. Analyses identifying preoperative factors affecting early recurrence after surgery were performed. When the p-value estimated from univariable Cox’s proportional hazard regression analysis was <0.05, the variables were included in multivariable analysis and used for establishing the nomogram. The established nomogram predicted the probability of early recurrence within 12 months after surgery in resectable PDAC. One thousand bootstrap resamplings were used to validate the nomogram. The concordance index was 0.665 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.637–0.695), and the incremental area under the curve was 0.655 (95% CI, 0.631–0.682). We developed a web-based calculator, and the nomogram is freely available at http://pdac.smchbp.org/. This is the first nomogram to predict early recurrence after surgery for resectable PDAC in the preoperative setting, providing a method to allow proceeding to treatment customized according to the risk of individual patients.

A lack of postoperative complications after pancreatectomy contributes to the long-term survival of patients with pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

/Objectives: The objectives of this study were to identify the factors affecting patients' survival and the characteristics of five-year survivors of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) after pancreatectomy as well as to clarify the correlation between the development of postoperative complications and a five-year survival.

METHODS

A total of 104 patients underwent pancreatectomy for PDAC between April 2005 and March 2013 with curative intent. Patients who survived for more than five years after pancreatectomy were classified as long-term survivors. Sixteen demographic and clinical variables and 10 pathological variables were comprehensively assessed for their associations with the patients' survival time and long-term survival.

RESULTS

The presence of preoperative comorbidity (OR: 1.65, 95% CI 1.02-2.67, p = 0.042), postoperative overall complications (OR: 1.78, 95% CI 1.03-3.10, p = 0.041), a lymph node positivity ratio of ≥0.2 (OR: 3.04, 95% CI 1.51-6.11, p = 0.002), and portal invasion (OR: 2.58, 95% CI 1.48-4.49, p = 0.001) were identified as independent factors affecting the patients' survival. The absence of postoperative overall complications was identified as an independent factor related to long-term survival in the multivariate analysis (OR: 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.82, p = 0.034).

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of preoperative comorbidity, postoperative overall complications, LNR ≥0.2, and portal invasion were prognostic factors affecting the patients' survival, and avoiding postoperative complications after pancreatectomy might contribute to the long-term survival of PDAC patients after pancreatectomy. The further improvement of surgical procedures and perioperative care in order to reduce the rate of postoperative complications should be attempted.

The survival impact of surgical waiting time in patients with resectable pancreatic head cancer

Backgrounds/Aims

After centralization policy, clinical outcomes have been improved in patients underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer. However, centralization could exacerbate the prolongation of surgical waiting time. This study aims to investigate whether the shorter waiting time correlates with the better survival and to identify the major confounders that influence the association between those.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, a total 554 patients with pathologically confirmed pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma were assessed the eligibility from 2014 through 2015. Patients with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, body-tail resection, total pancreatectomy and combined adjacent organ resection were excluded. All patients were divided into two groups by median waiting time, 21 days, defined as the date difference between initial imaging diagnosis and operation.

Results

Median overall survival did not differ between long and short waiting group (30.4 vs 24.8 months, p=0.35; HR=0.84, 95% CI=0.58-1.21). The proportion of cancer stage shifting, the difference between clinical and pathologic staging, did not differ depending on waiting time group (p=0.811 and 0.255, each of reviewers). Short waiting time was highly correlated with high initial clinical stage (Spearman correlation coefficients -0.201 (p=0.006) and -0.100 (p=0.175), each of reviewers).

Conclusions

Initial clinical stage had confounding effect on the association between waiting time and overall survival. Therefore, in evaluating centralization policy at the national level, evidence for maximum acceptable waiting time should be investigated in the near future with considering that surgical waiting time could be affected by initial clinical stage.