Superspreading in the emergence of COVID-19 variants

Parametric analysis of SARS-CoV-2 dose-response models in transportation scenarios

Transportation systems involve high-density crowds of geographically diverse people with variations in susceptibility; therefore, they play a large role in the spread of infectious diseases like SARS-CoV-2. Dose-response models are widely used to model the relationship between the trigger of a disease and the level of exposure in transmission scenarios. In this study, we quantified and bounded viral exposure-related parameters using empirical data from five transportation-related events of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Dose-response models were then applied to parametrically analyze the infection spread in generic transportation systems, including a single-aisle airplane, bus, and railway coach, and then examined the mitigating efficiency of masks by performing a sensitivity analysis of the related factors. We found that dose level significantly affected the number of secondary infections. In general, we observed that mask usage reduced infection rates at all dose levels and that high-quality masks equivalent to FFP2/N95 masks are effective for all dose levels. In comparison, we found that lower-quality masks exhibit limited mitigation efficiency, especially in the presence of high dosage. The sensitivity analysis indicated that a reduction in the infection distance threshold is a critical factor in mask usage.

Quantifying individual-level heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility through household studies

The spread of SARS-CoV-2, like that of many other pathogens, is governed by heterogeneity. "Superspreading," or "over-dispersion," is an important factor in transmission, yet it is hard to quantify. Estimates from contact tracing data are prone to potential biases due to the increased likelihood of detecting large clusters of cases, and may reflect variation in contact behavior more than biological heterogeneity. In contrast, the average number of secondary infections per contact is routinely estimated from household surveys, and these studies can minimize biases by testing all members of a household. However, the models used to analyze household transmission data typically assume that infectiousness and susceptibility are the same for all individuals or vary only with predetermined traits such as age. Here we develop and apply a combined forward simulation and inference method to quantify the degree of inter-individual variation in both infectiousness and susceptibility from observations of the distribution of infections in household surveys. First, analyzing simulated data, we show our method can reliably ascertain the presence, type, and amount of these heterogeneities given data from a sufficiently large sample of households. We then analyze a collection of household studies of COVID-19 from diverse settings around the world, and find strong evidence for large heterogeneity in both the infectiousness and susceptibility of individuals. Our results also provide a framework to improve the design of studies to evaluate household interventions in the presence of realistic heterogeneity between individuals.

Headache following vaccination against COVID-19 among healthcare workers with a history of COVID-19 infection: a cross-sectional study in Iran with a meta-analytic review of the literature

BACKGROUND

There is evidence of the occurrence of headache after vaccination against COVID-19. However, only a few studies have examined the headache characteristics and related determinants, especially among healthcare workers with a history of COVID-19 infection.

METHODS

We evaluated the incidence of headaches after injection of different types of COVID-19 vaccine to determine factors relating to the incidence of headache after vaccination among the Iranian healthcare workers who had previously contracted COVID-19. A group of 334 healthcare workers with a history of COVID-19 infection were included and vaccinated (at least one month after recovery without any COVID-19 related symptoms) with different COVID-19 vaccines. The baseline information, headache characteristics and vaccine specifications were recorded.

RESULTS

Overall, 39.2% reported experiencing a post-vaccination headache. Of those with a previous history of headache, 51.1% reported migraine-type, 27.4% tension-type and 21.5% other types. The mean time between vaccination and headache appearance was 26.78 ± 6.93 h, with the headache appearing less than 24 h after vaccination in most patients (83.2%). The headaches reached its peak within 8.62 ± 2.41 h. Most patients reported a compression-type headache. The prevalence of post-vaccination headaches was significantly different according to the type of vaccine used. The highest rates were reported for AstraZeneca, followed by Sputnik V. In regression analysis, the vaccine brand, female gender and initial COVID-19 severity were the main determinants for predicting post-vaccination headache.

CONCLUSION

Participants commonly experienced a headache following vaccination against COVID-19. Our study results indicated that this was slightly more common in females and in those with a history of severe COVID-19 infection.

Spatial risk for a superspreading environment: Insights from six urban facilities in six global cities across four continents

Introduction

This study sets out to provide scientific evidence on the spatial risk for the formation of a superspreading environment.

Methods

Focusing on six common types of urban facilities (bars, cinemas, gyms and fitness centers, places of worship, public libraries and shopping malls), it first tests whether visitors' mobility characteristics differ systematically for different types of facility and at different locations. The study collects detailed human mobility and other locational data in Chicago, Hong Kong, London, São Paulo, Seoul and Zurich. Then, considering facility agglomeration, visitors' profile and the density of the population, facilities are classified into four potential spatial risk (PSR) classes. Finally, a kernel density function is employed to derive the risk surface in each city based on the spatial risk class and nature of activities.

Results

Results of the human mobility analysis reflect the geographical and cultural context of various facilities, transport characteristics and people's lifestyle across cities. Consistent across the six global cities, geographical agglomeration is a risk factor for bars. For other urban facilities, the lack of agglomeration is a risk factor. Based on the spatial risk maps, some high-risk areas of superspreading are identified and discussed in each city.

Discussion

Integrating activity-travel patterns in risk models can help identify areas that attract highly mobile visitors and are conducive to superspreading. Based on the findings, this study proposes a place-based strategy of non-pharmaceutical interventions that balance the control of the pandemic and the daily life of the urban population.

Unraveling the dynamics of the Omicron and Delta variants of the 2019 coronavirus in the presence of vaccination, mask usage, and antiviral treatment

The effectiveness of control interventions against COVID-19 is threatened by the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. We present a mathematical model for studying the transmission dynamics of two of these variants (Delta and Omicron) in the United States, in the presence of vaccination, treatment of individuals with clinical symptoms of the disease and the use of face masks. The model is parameterized and cross-validated using observed daily case data for COVID-19 in the United States for the period from November 2021 (when Omicron first emerged) to March 2022. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium of the model is locally-asymptotically stable when the control reproduction number of the model (denoted by R c ) is less than one. This equilibrium is shown to be globally-asymptotically stable for a special case of the model, where disease-induced mortality is negligible and both vaccine-derived immunity in fully-vaccinated individuals and natural immunity do not wane, when the associated reproduction number is less than one. The epidemiological implication of the latter result is that the combined vaccination-boosting strategy can lead to the elimination of the pandemic if its implementation can bring (and maintain) the associated reproduction number to a value less than one. An analytical expression for the vaccine-derived herd immunity threshold is derived. Using this expression, together with the baseline values of the parameters of the parameterized model, we showed that the vaccine-derived herd immunity can be achieved in the United States (so that the pandemic will be eliminated) if at least 68 % of the population is fully-vaccinated with two of the three vaccines approved for use in the United States (Pfizer or Moderna vaccine). Furthermore, this study showed (as of the time of writing in March 2022) that the control reproduction number of the Omicron variant was approximately 3.5 times that of the Delta variant (the reproduction of the latter is computed to be ≈ 0.2782 ), indicating that Delta had practically died out and that Omicron has competitively-excluded Delta (to become the predominant variant in the United States). Based on our analysis and parameterization at the time of writing of this paper (March 2022), our study suggests that SARS-CoV-2 elimination is feasible by June 2022 if the current baseline level of the coverage of fully-vaccinated individuals is increased by about 20 % . The prospect of pandemic elimination is significantly improved if vaccination is combined with a face mask strategy that prioritizes moderately effective and high-quality masks. Having a high percentage of the populace wearing the moderately-effective surgical mask is more beneficial to the community than having low percentage of the populace wearing the highly-effective N95 masks. We showed that waning natural and vaccine-derived immunity (if considered individually) offer marginal impact on disease burden, except for the case when they wane at a much faster rate (e.g., within three months), in comparison to the baseline (estimated to be within 9 months to a year). Treatment of symptomatic individuals has marginal effect in reducing daily cases of SARS-CoV-2, in comparison to the baseline, but it has significant impact in reducing daily hospitalizations. Furthermore, while treatment significantly reduces daily hospitalizations (and, consequently, deaths), the prospects of COVID-19 elimination in the United States are significantly enhanced if investments in control resources are focused on mask usage and vaccination rather than on treatment.

Cold-adapted SARS-CoV-2 variants with different temperature sensitivity exhibit an attenuated phenotype and confer protective immunity

As novel SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern emerge, the efficacy of existing vaccines against COVID-19 is declining. A possible solution to this problem lies in the development of a live attenuated vaccine potentially able of providing cross-protective activity against a wide range of SARS-CoV-2 antigenic variants. Cold-adapted (ca) SARS-CoV-2 variants, Dubrovka-ca-B4 (D-B4) and Dubrovka-ca-D2 (D-D2), were obtained after long-term passaging of the Dubrovka (D) strain in Vero cells at reduced temperatures. Virulence, immunogenicity, and protective activity of SARS-CoV-2 variants were evaluated in experiments on intranasal infection of Syrian golden hamsters (Mesocricetus auratus). In animal model infecting with ca variants, the absence of body weight loss, the significantly lower viral titer and viral RNA concentration in animal tissues, the less pronounced inflammatory lesions in animal lungs as compared with the D strain indicated the reduced virulence of the virus variant. Single intranasal immunization with D-B4 and D-D2 variants induced the production of neutralizing antibodies in hamsters and protected them from infection with the D strain and the development of severe pneumonia. It was shown that for ca SARS-CoV-2 variants, the temperature-sensitive (ts) phenotype was not obligate for virulence reduction. Indeed, the D-B4 variant, which did not possess the ts phenotype but had lost the ability to infect human lung cells Calu-3, exhibited reduced virulence in hamsters. Consequently, the potential phenotypic markers of attenuation of ca SARS-CoV-2 variants are the ca phenotype, the ts phenotype, and the change in species specificity of the virus. This study demonstrates the great potential of SARS-CoV-2 cold adaptation as a strategy to develop a live attenuated COVID-19 vaccine.

Mathematical assessment of the role of waning and boosting immunity against the BA.1 Omicron variant in the United States

Three safe and effective vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have played a major role in combating COVID-19 in the United States. However, the effectiveness of these vaccines and vaccination programs has been challenged by the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. A new mathematical model is formulated to assess the impact of waning and boosting of immunity against the Omicron variant in the United States. To account for gradual waning of vaccine-derived immunity, we considered three vaccination classes that represent high, moderate and low levels of immunity. We showed that the disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally-asymptotically, for two special cases, if the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Simulations of the model showed that vaccine-derived herd immunity can be achieved in the United States via a vaccination-boosting strategy which entails fully vaccinating at least 59% of the susceptible populace followed by the boosting of about 72% of the fully-vaccinated individuals whose vaccine-derived immunity has waned to moderate or low level. In the absence of boosting, waning of immunity only causes a marginal increase in the average number of new cases at the peak of the pandemic, while boosting at baseline could result in a dramatic reduction in the average number of new daily cases at the peak. Specifically, for the fast immunity waning scenario (where both vaccine-derived and natural immunity are assumed to wane within three months), boosting vaccine-derived immunity at baseline reduces the average number of daily cases at the peak by about 90% (in comparison to the corresponding scenario without boosting of the vaccine-derived immunity), whereas boosting of natural immunity (at baseline) only reduced the corresponding peak daily cases (in comparison to the corresponding scenario without boosting of natural immunity) by approximately 62%. Furthermore, boosting of vaccine-derived immunity is more beneficial (in reducing the burden of the pandemic) than boosting of natural immunity. Finally, boosting vaccine-derived immunity increased the prospects of altering the trajectory of COVID-19 from persistence to possible elimination.

Quantifying individual-level heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility through household studies

The spread of SARS-CoV-2, like that of many other pathogens, is governed by heterogeneity. "Superspreading," or "over-dispersion," is an important factor in transmission, yet it is hard to quantify. Estimates from contact tracing data are prone to potential biases due to the increased likelihood of detecting large clusters of cases, and may reflect variation in contact behavior more than biological heterogeneity. In contrast, the average number of secondary infections per contact is routinely estimated from household surveys, and these studies can minimize biases by testing all members of a household. However, the models used to analyze household transmission data typically assume that infectiousness and susceptibility are the same for all individuals or vary only with predetermined traits such as age. Here we develop and apply a combined forward simulation and inference method to quantify the degree of inter-individual variation in both infectiousness and susceptibility from observations of the distribution of infections in household surveys. First, analyzing simulated data, we show our method can reliably ascertain the presence, type, and amount of these heterogeneities with data from a sufficiently large sample of households. We then analyze a collection of household studies of COVID-19 from diverse settings around the world, and find strong evidence for large heterogeneity in both the infectiousness and susceptibility of individuals. Our results also provide a framework to improve the design of studies to evaluate household interventions in the presence of realistic heterogeneity between individuals.

Differential peripheral blood mononuclear cell reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 proteins in naïve and previously infected subjects following COVID-19 vaccination

The decline in vaccine efficacy and the risk of reinfection by SARS-CoV-2 make new studies important to better characterize the immune response against the virus and its components. Here, we investigated the pattern of activation of T-cells and the expression of inflammatory factors by PBMCs obtained from naïve and previously infected subjects following COVID-19 vaccination, after PBMCs stimulation with S1, RBD, and N-RBD SARS-CoV-2 proteins. PBMCs showed low levels of ACE2 and TMPRSS2 transcripts, which were not modulated by the exposure of these cells to SARS-CoV-2 proteins. Compared to S1 and RBD, N-RBD stimulation showed a greater ability to stimulate T-cell reactivity, according to CD25 and CD69 markers. Interestingly, T-cell reactivity was more pronounced in vaccinated subjects with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection than in vaccinated donors who never had been diagnosed with COVID-19. Finally, N-RBD stimulation promoted greater expression of IL-6 and IFN-γ in PBMCs, which reinforces the greater immunogenic potential of this protein in the vaccinated subjects. These data suggest that PBMCs from previously infected and vaccinated subjects are more reactive than those derived from just vaccinated donors. Moreover, the N-RBD together viral proteins showed a greater stimulatory capacity than S1 and RBD viral proteins.

A Timeframe for SARS-CoV-2 Genomes: A Proof of Concept for Postmortem Interval Estimations

Establishing the timeframe when a particular virus was circulating in a population could be useful in several areas of biomedical research, including microbiology and legal medicine. Using simulations, we demonstrate that the circulation timeframe of an unknown SARS-CoV-2 genome in a population (hereafter, estimated time of a queried genome [QG]; tE-QG) can be easily predicted using a phylogenetic model based on a robust reference genome database of the virus, and information on their sampling dates. We evaluate several phylogeny-based approaches, including modeling evolutionary (substitution) rates of the SARS-CoV-2 genome (~10-3 substitutions/nucleotide/year) and the mutational (substitutions) differences separating the QGs from the reference genomes (RGs) in the database. Owing to the mutational characteristics of the virus, the present Viral Molecular Clock Dating (VMCD) method covers timeframes going backwards from about a month in the past. The method has very low errors associated to the tE-QG estimates and narrow intervals of tE-QG, both ranging from a few days to a few weeks regardless of the mathematical model used. The SARS-CoV-2 model represents a proof of concept that can be extrapolated to any other microorganism, provided that a robust genome sequence database is available. Besides obvious applications in epidemiology and microbiology investigations, there are several contexts in forensic casework where estimating tE-QG could be useful, including estimation of the postmortem intervals (PMI) and the dating of samples stored in hospital settings.

The stochastic world of emerging viruses

The acquisition of new hosts is a fundamental mechanism by which parasitic organisms expand their host range and perpetuate themselves on an evolutionary scale. Among pathogens, viruses, due to their speed of evolution, are particularly efficient in producing new emergence events. However, even though these phenomena are particularly important to the human species and therefore specifically studied, the processes of virus emergence in a new host species are very complex and difficult to comprehend in their entirety. In order to provide a structured framework for understanding emergence in a species (including humans), a comprehensive qualitative model is an indispensable cornerstone. This model explicitly describes all the stages necessary for a virus circulating in the wild to come to the crossing of the epidemic threshold. We have therefore developed a complete descriptive model explaining all the steps necessary for a virus circulating in host populations to emerge in a new species. This description of the parameters presiding over the emergence of a new virus allows us to understand their nature and importance in the emergence process.

Population genetic models for the spatial spread of adaptive variants: A review in light of SARS-CoV-2 evolution

Theoretical population genetics has long studied the arrival and geographic spread of adaptive variants through the analysis of mathematical models of dispersal and natural selection. These models take on a renewed interest in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially given the consequences that novel adaptive variants have had on the course of the pandemic as they have spread through global populations. Here, we review theoretical models for the spatial spread of adaptive variants and identify areas to be improved in future work, toward a better understanding of variants of concern in Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) evolution and other contemporary applications. As we describe, characteristics of pandemics such as COVID-19-such as the impact of long-distance travel patterns and the overdispersion of lineages due to superspreading events-suggest new directions for improving upon existing population genetic models.

Immunogenic properties of SARS-CoV-2 inactivated by ultraviolet light

Vaccination against COVID-19 is the most effective method of controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and reducing mortality from this disease. The development of vaccines with high protective activity against a wide range of SARS-CoV-2 antigenic variants remains relevant. In this regard, evaluation of the effectiveness of physical methods of virus inactivation, such as ultraviolet irradiation (UV) of the virus stock, remains relevant. This study demonstrates that the UV treatment of SARS-CoV-2 completely inactivates its infectivity while preserving its morphology, antigenic properties, and ability to induce the production of virus-neutralizing antibodies in mice through immunization. Thus, the UV inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 makes it possible to obtain viral material similar in its antigenic and immunogenic properties to the native antigen, which can be used both for the development of diagnostic test systems and for the development of an inactivated vaccine against COVID-19.

A multi-tissue study of immune gene expression profiling highlights the key role of the nasal epithelium in COVID-19 severity

Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) symptoms range from mild to severe illness; the cause for this differential response to infection remains unknown. Unravelling the immune mechanisms acting at different levels of the colonization process might be key to understand these differences. We carried out a multi-tissue (nasal, buccal and blood; n = 156) gene expression analysis of immune-related genes from patients affected by different COVID-19 severities, and healthy controls through the nCounter technology. Mild and asymptomatic cases showed a powerful innate antiviral response in nasal epithelium, characterized by activation of interferon (IFN) pathway and downstream cascades, successfully controlling the infection at local level. In contrast, weak macrophage/monocyte driven innate antiviral response and lack of IFN signalling activity were present in severe cases. Consequently, oral mucosa from severe patients showed signals of viral activity, cell arresting and viral dissemination to the lower respiratory tract, which ultimately could explain the exacerbated innate immune response and impaired adaptative immune responses observed at systemic level. Results from saliva transcriptome suggest that the buccal cavity might play a key role in SARS-CoV-2 infection and dissemination in patients with worse prognosis. Co-expression network analysis adds further support to these findings, by detecting modules specifically correlated with severity involved in the abovementioned biological routes; this analysis also provides new candidate genes that might be tested as biomarkers in future studies. We also found tissue specific severity-related signatures mainly represented by genes involved in the innate immune system and cytokine/chemokine signalling. Local immune response could be key to determine the course of the systemic response and thus COVID-19 severity. Our findings provide a framework to investigate severity host gene biomarkers and pathways that might be relevant to diagnosis, prognosis, and therapy.

Considerations for the Feasibility of Neutralizing Antibodies as a Surrogate Endpoint for COVID-19 Vaccines

To effectively control and prevent the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), suitable vaccines have been researched and developed rapidly. Currently, 31 COVID-19 vaccines have been approved for emergency use or authorized for conditional marketing, with more than 9.3 billion doses of vaccines being administered globally. However, the continuous emergence of variants with high transmissibility and an ability to escape the immune responses elicited by vaccines poses severe challenges to the effectiveness of approved vaccines. Hundreds of new COVID-19 vaccines based on different technology platforms are in need of a quick evaluation for their efficiencies. Selection and enrollment of a suitable sample of population for conducting these clinical trials is often challenging because the pandemic so widespread and also due to large scale vaccination. To overcome these hurdles, methods of evaluation of vaccine efficiency based on establishment of surrogate endpoints could expedite the further research and development of vaccines. In this review, we have summarized the studies on neutralizing antibody responses and effectiveness of the various COVID-19 vaccines. Using this data we have analyzed the feasibility of establishing surrogate endpoints for evaluating the efficacy of vaccines based on neutralizing antibody titers. The considerations discussed here open up new avenues for devising novel approaches and strategies for the research and develop as well as application of COVID-19 vaccines.

Assessment of Dietary and Lifestyle Responses After COVID-19 Vaccine Availability in Selected Arab Countries

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has been consistently associated with unhealthy lifestyle behaviors and dietary practices. This study aimed to assess the dietary and lifestyle behaviors of adults after COVID-19 vaccine availability and their attitude toward the vaccine in selected Arab countries.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey-based study was conducted between October 2021 and December 2021 using Google Forms (n = 2259). A multi-component questionnaire was used to collect socio-demographic characteristics, attitudes toward the COVID-19 vaccine, and behavioral, dietary, and lifestyle responses after easing the restriction. Participants were given a score based on the sum of positive dietary and lifestyle changes. The generalized linear models were used to identify the association between positive dietary and lifestyle changes score and sociodemographic characteristics.

Results

Weight gain during the pandemic was reported by 39.5% of the participants, 36.1% reported ever getting infected with the COVID-19 virus, and 85% received at least one dose of the vaccine. The key adverse reactions of the COVID-19 vaccine were fatigue, headache, and joint pain, and the main reason for vaccination was protection against infection. Most participants were concerned about the vaccine side effects (45.8%) and inadequate testing (50.7%). After easing of restriction, 54.3% of the participants reduced the frequency of disinfecting objects, and 58.3% joined social events. Most dietary and lifestyle behaviors remained unchanged after vaccine availability but there was an increase in the time spent behind the screen for work (50.1%) and entertainment (42.9%). The results of the multivariate regression analyses revealed that older participants (p = 0.001), those with higher education (p = 0.010), and those working from home (p = 0.040) were more likely to have higher positive dietary and lifestyle changes scores.

Conclusion

Although most participants were concerned about vaccine safety, low vaccine hesitancy rates were observed among the study sample. The availability of the COVID-19 vaccines resulted in loosening some of the safety social measures among Arab adults but the negative impact of the pandemic on dietary and lifestyle behaviors remained unaltered.

Evaluation of BNT162b2 Vaccine Effectiveness in Galicia, Northwest Spain

Investigating vaccine effectiveness (VE) in real-world conditions is crucial, especially its variation across different settings and populations. We undertook a test-negative control study in Galicia (Northwest Spain) to assess BNT162b2 effectiveness against acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection as well as COVID-19 associated hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality. A total of 44,401 positive and 817,025 negative SARS-CoV-2 test results belonging to adults were included. Adjusted odds ratios of vaccination and their 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated using multivariate logistic-regression models. BNT162b2 showed high effectiveness in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections in all age categories, reaching maximum VE ≥ 14 days after administering the second dose [18-64 years: VE = 92.9% (95%CI: 90.2-95.1); 65-79 years: VE = 85.8% (95%CI: 77.3-91.9), and ≥80 years: VE = 91.4% (95%CI: 87.9-94.1)]. BNT162b2 also demonstrated effectiveness in preventing COVID-19 hospitalization for all age categories, with VE more pronounced for those aged ≥80 years [VE = 60.0% (95%CI: 49.4-68.3)]. Moreover, there was a considerable reduction in ICU admission [VE = 88.0% (95%CI: 74.6-95.8)] and mortality [VE = 38.0% (95%CI: 15.9-55.4)] in the overall population. BNT162b2 showed substantial protection against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 severity. Our findings would prove useful for systematic reviews and meta-analysis on COVID-19 VE.

Identification of a novel SARS-CoV-2 P.1 sub-lineage in Brazil provides new insights about the mechanisms of emergence of variants of concern

One of the most remarkable severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOC) features is the significant number of mutations they acquired. However, the specific factors that drove the emergence of such variants since the second half of 2020 are not fully resolved. In this study, we describe a new SARS-CoV-2 P.1 sub-lineage circulating in Brazil, denoted here as Gamma-like-II, that as well as the previously described lineage Gamma-like-I shares several lineage-defining mutations with the VOC Gamma. Reconstructions of ancestor sequences support that most lineage-defining mutations of the Spike (S) protein, including those at the receptor-binding domain (RBD), accumulated at the first P.1 ancestor. In contrast, mutations outside the S protein were mostly fixed at subsequent steps. Our evolutionary analyses estimate that P.1-ancestral strains carrying RBD mutations of concern probably circulated cryptically in the Amazonas for several months before the emergence of the VOC Gamma. Unlike the VOC Gamma, the other P.1 sub-lineages displayed a much more restricted dissemination and accounted for a low fraction (<2 per cent) of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Brazil in 2021. The stepwise diversification of lineage P.1 through multiple inter-host transmissions is consistent with the hypothesis that partial immunity acquired from natural SARS-CoV-2 infections in heavily affected regions might have been a major driving force behind the natural selection of some VOCs. The lag time between the emergence of the P.1 ancestor and the expansion of the VOC Gamma and the divergent epidemic trajectories of P.1 sub-lineages support a complex interplay between the emergence of mutations of concern and viral spread in Brazil.

Different decay of antibody response and VOC sensitivity in naïve and previously infected subjects at 15 weeks following vaccination with BNT162b2

Background

COVID-19 vaccines have demonstrated effectiveness in reducing SARS-CoV-2 mild and severe outcomes. In vaccinated subjects with SARS-CoV-2 history, RBD-specific IgG and pseudovirus neutralization titers were rapidly recalled by a single BTN162b2 vaccine dose to higher levels than those in naïve recipients after the second dose, irrespective of waning immunity. In this study, we inspected the long-term kinetic and neutralizing responses of S-specific IgG induced by two administrations of BTN162b2 vaccine in infection-naïve subjects and in subjects previously infected with SARS-CoV-2.

Methods

Twenty-six naïve and 9 previously SARS-CoV-2 infected subjects during the second wave of the pandemic in Italy were enrolled for this study. The two groups had comparable demographic and clinical characteristics. By means of ELISA and pseudotyped-neutralization assays, we investigated the kinetics of developed IgG-RBD and their neutralizing activity against both the ancestral D614G and the SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern emerged later, respectively. The Wilcoxon matched pair signed rank test and the Kruskal–Wallis test with Dunn’s correction for multiple comparison were applied when needed.

Results

Although after 15 weeks from vaccination IgG-RBD dropped in all participants, naïve subjects experienced a more dramatic decline than those with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. Neutralizing antibodies remained higher in subjects with SARS-CoV-2 history and conferred broad-spectrum protection.

Conclusions

These data suggest that hybrid immunity to SARS-CoV-2 has a relevant impact on the development of IgG-RBD upon vaccination. However, the rapid decay of vaccination-elicited antibodies highlights that the administration of a third dose is expected to boost the response and acquire high levels of cross-neutralizing antibodies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-021-03208-3.

Limited Impact of Delta Variant's Mutations on the Effectiveness of Neutralization Conferred by Natural Infection or COVID-19 Vaccines in a Latino Population

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has impacted public health systems all over the world. The Delta variant seems to possess enhanced transmissibility, but no clear evidence suggests it has increased virulence. Our data show that pre-exposed individuals had similar neutralizing activity against the authentic COVID-19 strain and the Delta and Epsilon variants. After only one vaccine dose, the neutralization capacity expanded to all tested variants in pre-exposed individuals. Healthy vaccinated individuals showed a limited breadth of neutralization. One vaccine dose did induce similar neutralizing antibodies against the Delta as against the authentic strain. However, even after two doses, this capacity only expanded to the Epsilon variant.

Limited impact of Delta variant’s mutations in the effectiveness of neutralization conferred by natural infection or COVID-19 vaccines in a Latino population

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has impacted public health systems all over the world. The Delta variant seems to possess enhanced transmissibility, but no clear evidence suggests it has increased virulence. Our data shows that pre-exposed individuals had similar neutralizing activity against the authentic COVID-19 strain and the Delta and Epsilon variants. After one vaccine dose, the neutralization capacity expands to all tested variants. Healthy vaccinated individuals showed a limited breadth of neutralization. One vaccine dose induced similar neutralizing antibodies against the Delta compared to the authentic strain. However, even after two doses, this capacity only expanded to the Epsilon variant.