Ten Years On: A Review of the First Global Conservation Horizon Scan

A global biological conservation horizon scan of issues for 2023

We present the results of our 14th horizon scan of issues we expect to influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial set of 102 topics, our global panel of 30 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues we consider most urgent for societies worldwide to address. Issues are novel within biological conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step change at global or regional scales. Issues such as submerged artificial light fisheries and accelerating upper ocean currents could have profound negative impacts on marine or coastal ecosystems. We also identified potentially positive technological advances, including energy production and storage, improved fertilisation methods, and expansion of biodegradable materials. If effectively managed, these technologies could realise future benefits for biological diversity.

Modelling of marine debris pathways into UK waters: Example of non-native crustaceans transported across the Atlantic Ocean on floating marine debris

The long-distance transfer of non-native, potentially invasive species via floating marine debris is an increasing threat to biodiversity and conservation efforts. To address the lack of understanding around mechanisms and pathways of species transfer via marine debris, a novel modelling approach was applied to recreate the likely trajectory and source of a large piece of debris fouled by non-native species collected from UK marine waters. This approach applied the Oil Spill Contingency and Response (OSCAR) simulation tool, an adapted oil spill modelling programme, which was informed by a combination of biological trait information for the foulant species, marine debris characteristics and hydrodynamic data. The modelling output suggested an origin in the Western Atlantic, a scenario concurrent with the known distribution of the foulant species. This modelling approach represents a valuable tool with which to determine the origin and trajectory of invasive species transferred via marine debris.

Seasonal heterogeneity and a link to precipitation in the release of microplastic during COVID-19 outbreak from the Greater Jakarta area to Jakarta Bay, Indonesia

To reduce microplastic contamination in the environment, we need to better understand its sources and transit, especially from land to sea. This study examines microplastic contamination in Jakarta's nine river outlets. Microplastics were found in all sampling intervals and areas, ranging from 4.29 to 23.49 particles m^-3. The trend of microplastic contamination tends to increase as the anthropogenic activity towards Jakarta Bay from the eastern side of the bay. Our study found a link between rainfall and the abundance of microplastic particles in all river outlets studied. This investigation found polyethylene, polystyrene, and polypropylene in large proportion due to their widespread use in normal daily life and industrial applications. Our research observed an increase in microplastic fibers made of polypropylene over time. We suspect a relationship between COVID-19 PPE waste and microplastic shift in our study area. More research is needed to establish how and where microplastics enter rivers.

A global horizon scan of issues impacting marine and coastal biodiversity conservation

The biodiversity of marine and coastal habitats is experiencing unprecedented change. While there are well-known drivers of these changes, such as overexploitation, climate change and pollution, there are also relatively unknown emerging issues that are poorly understood or recognized that have potentially positive or negative impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. In this inaugural Marine and Coastal Horizon Scan, we brought together 30 scientists, policymakers and practitioners with transdisciplinary expertise in marine and coastal systems to identify new issues that are likely to have a significant impact on the functioning and conservation of marine and coastal biodiversity over the next 5-10 years. Based on a modified Delphi voting process, the final 15 issues presented were distilled from a list of 75 submitted by participants at the start of the process. These issues are grouped into three categories: ecosystem impacts, for example the impact of wildfires and the effect of poleward migration on equatorial biodiversity; resource exploitation, including an increase in the trade of fish swim bladders and increased exploitation of marine collagens; and new technologies, such as soft robotics and new biodegradable products. Our early identification of these issues and their potential impacts on marine and coastal biodiversity will support scientists, conservationists, resource managers and policymakers to address the challenges facing marine ecosystems.

An agenda for future Social Sciences and Humanities research on energy efficiency: 100 priority research questions

Decades of techno-economic energy policymaking and research have meant evidence from the Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH)-including critical reflections on what changing a society's relation to energy (efficiency) even means-have been underutilised. In particular, (i) the SSH have too often been sidelined and/or narrowly pigeonholed by policymakers, funders, and other decision-makers when driving research agendas, and (ii) the setting of SSH-focused research agendas has not historically embedded inclusive and deliberative processes. The aim of this paper is to address these gaps through the production of a research agenda outlining future SSH research priorities for energy efficiency. A Horizon Scanning exercise was run, which sought to identify 100 priority SSH questions for energy efficiency research. This exercise included 152 researchers with prior SSH expertise on energy efficiency, who together spanned 62 (sub-)disciplines of SSH, 23 countries, and a full range of career stages. The resultant questions were inductively clustered into seven themes as follows: (1) Citizenship, engagement and knowledge exchange in relation to energy efficiency; (2) Energy efficiency in relation to equity, justice, poverty and vulnerability; (3) Energy efficiency in relation to everyday life and practices of energy consumption and production; (4) Framing, defining and measuring energy efficiency; (5) Governance, policy and political issues around energy efficiency; (6) Roles of economic systems, supply chains and financial mechanisms in improving energy efficiency; and (7) The interactions, unintended consequences and rebound effects of energy efficiency interventions. Given the consistent centrality of energy efficiency in policy programmes, this paper highlights that well-developed SSH approaches are ready to be mobilised to contribute to the development, and/or to understand the implications, of energy efficiency measures and governance solutions. Implicitly, it also emphasises the heterogeneity of SSH policy evidence that can be produced. The agenda will be of use for both (1) those new to the energy-SSH field (including policyworkers), for learnings on the capabilities and capacities of energy-SSH, and (2) established energy-SSH researchers, for insights on the collectively held futures of energy-SSH research.

A horizon scan of global biological conservation issues for 2022

We present the results of our 13th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact on biodiversity conservation. Issues are either novel within the biological conservation sector or could cause a substantial step-change in impact, either globally or regionally. Our global panel of 26 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues that we believe to represent the highest priorities for tracking and action. Many of the issues we identified, including the impact of satellite megaconstellations and the use of long-distance wireless energy transfer, have both elements of threats and emerging opportunities. A recent state-sponsored application to commence deep-sea mining represents a significant step-change in impact. We hope that this horizon scan will increase research and policy attention on the highlighted issues.

Spatiotemporal distribution of microplastics in surface water, biofilms, and sediments in the world's largest drinking water diversion project

Investigations of microplastics have increased exponentially over the past decade, yet no information is currently available on the status of microplastics in strictly regulated, artificial bodies of water. The Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) in China, a highly regulated canal, supplies water to 19 cities and more than 53.10 million residents since 2014, as part of the world's largest inter-basin drinking water diversion project. In this study, the spatiotemporal distribution, characteristics, and polymer types of microplastics were surveyed for the first time in the Middle Route of the SNWDP. On average, microplastics were distributed at abundances of 516 items m-3 in water, 20 items kg-1 in biofilms (wet weight), and 24 items kg-1 in sediments (wet weight), lower than that in other typical inland waters. Both sites and seasons significantly affected microplastic abundance in water, biofilms, and sediments; microplastic abundance in water was also significantly positively correlated with distance to the headwork. The main microplastics in the canal were small (0.05-1 mm) polyethylene terephthalate (PET) fibers. Interestingly, microplastics were concentrated in biofilms, indicating that biofilms could serve as a sink for microplastics in the canal. Vehicular harvester was used to demonstrate the practicality of biofilm harvest to mitigate contamination with microplastics. Our results showed that microplastics are consistently transported long distances through the canal, biofilms play an important role in the fate of microplastics in the canal, and that biofilm harvest could be potentially used to mitigate microplastic pollution.

Exploiting common senses: sensory ecology meets wildlife conservation and management

Multidisciplinary approaches to conservation and wildlife management are often effective in addressing complex, multi-factor problems. Emerging fields such as conservation physiology and conservation behaviour can provide innovative solutions and management strategies for target species and systems. Sensory ecology combines the study of 'how animals acquire' and process sensory stimuli from their environments, and the ecological and evolutionary significance of 'how animals respond' to this information. We review the benefits that sensory ecology can bring to wildlife conservation and management by discussing case studies across major taxa and sensory modalities. Conservation practices informed by a sensory ecology approach include the amelioration of sensory traps, control of invasive species, reduction of human-wildlife conflicts and relocation and establishment of new populations of endangered species. We illustrate that sensory ecology can facilitate the understanding of mechanistic ecological and physiological explanations underlying particular conservation issues and also can help develop innovative solutions to ameliorate conservation problems.

The future for Mediterranean wetlands: 50 key issues and 50 important conservation research questions

Wetlands are critically important for biodiversity and human wellbeing, but face a range of challenges. This is especially true in the Mediterranean region, where wetlands support endemic and threatened species and remain integral to human societies, but have been severely degraded in recent decades. Here, in order to raise awareness of future challenges and opportunities for Mediterranean wetlands, and to inform proactive research and management, we identified (a) 50 key issues that might affect Mediterranean wetlands between 2020 and 2050, and (b) 50 important research questions that, if answered, would have the greatest impact on the conservation of Mediterranean wetlands between 2020 and 2050. We gathered ideas through an online survey and review of recent literature. A diverse assessment panel prioritised ideas through an iterative, anonymised, Delphi-like process of scoring, voting and discussion. The prioritised issues included some that are already well known but likely to have a large impact on Mediterranean wetlands in the next 30 years (e.g. the accumulation of dams and reservoirs, plastic pollution and weak governance), and some that are currently overlooked in the context of Mediterranean wetlands (e.g. increasing desalination capacity and development of antimicrobial resistance). Questions largely focused on how best to carry out conservation interventions, or understanding the impacts of threats to inform conservation decision-making. This analysis will support research, policy and practice related to environmental conservation and sustainable development in the Mediterranean, and provides a model for similar analyses elsewhere in the world.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-020-01743-1.

Forest-linked livelihoods in a globalized world

Forests have re-taken centre stage in global conversations about sustainability, climate and biodiversity. Here, we use a horizon scanning approach to identify five large-scale trends that are likely to have substantial medium- and long-term effects on forests and forest livelihoods: forest megadisturbances; changing rural demographics; the rise of the middle-class in low- and middle-income countries; increased availability, access and use of digital technologies; and large-scale infrastructure development. These trends represent human and environmental processes that are exceptionally large in geographical extent and magnitude, and difficult to reverse. They are creating new agricultural and urban frontiers, changing existing rural landscapes and practices, opening spaces for novel conservation priorities and facilitating an unprecedented development of monitoring and evaluation platforms that can be used by local communities, civil society organizations, governments and international donors. Understanding these larger-scale dynamics is key to support not only the critical role of forests in meeting livelihood aspirations locally, but also a range of other sustainability challenges more globally. We argue that a better understanding of these trends and the identification of levers for change requires that the research community not only continue to build on case studies that have dominated research efforts so far, but place a greater emphasis on causality and causal mechanisms, and generate a deeper understanding of how local, national and international geographical scales interact.

A 2021 Horizon Scan of Emerging Global Biological Conservation Issues

We present the results from our 12th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact biological conservation in the future. From a list of 97 topics, our global panel of 25 scientists and practitioners identified the top 15 issues that we believe society may urgently need to address. These issues are either novel in the biological conservation sector or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change in impact at global or regional level. Six issues, such as coral reef deoxygenation and changes in polar coastal productivity, affect marine or coastal ecosystems and seven relate to human and ecosystem-level responses to climate change. Identification of potential forthcoming issues for biological conservation may enable increased preparedness by researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers.

Temporal and spatial variations of microplastics in roadside dust from rural and urban Victoria, Australia: Implications for diffuse pollution

Microplastic pollution is an important issue for environmental management as their ubiquity in marine and freshwaters has been confirmed. Pollution sources are key to understanding how microplastics travel from land to open oceans. Given that information regarding microplastic transport from diffuse sources is limiting, we conducted a study on roadside dust from rural and urban Victoria, Australia, over two seasons. Any deposited fugitive dust and particulate matter may also be present in our samples. The average microplastic abundance over two seasons ranged from 20.6 to 529.3 items/kg (dry weight based), with a predominant portion of fibers and items less than 1 mm. Polyester and polypropylene were the dominant polymer types (26%) while cotton and cellulose were the most common non-plastic items (27%). Sampling sites displayed consistent microplastic abundances over time and shared similar patterns in size, shape and polymer composition. Multiple correlation and principal component analysis suggest that urbanization and rainfall are important influences to roadside microplastic accumulation. The observed microplastic hotspots were generally located within close vicinity of areas where urban intensive land use and regional population sizes are high. Microplastics accumulated on roads and road verges during periods of dry weather and were flushed away during heavy storms while the corresponding trigger value was unknown. Monitoring roadside dust can be considered as an initial and cost-effective screening of microplastic pollution in urban areas. Further efforts should be made to optimize the methodologies and we advocate prolonged sampling schemes for roadside dust monitoring.

Horizon scanning for South African biodiversity: A need for social engagement as well as science

A horizon scan was conducted to identify emerging and intensifying issues for biodiversity conservation in South Africa over the next 5-10 years. South African biodiversity experts submitted 63 issues of which ten were identified as priorities using the Delphi method. These priority issues were then plotted along axes of social agreement and scientific certainty, to ascertain whether issues might be "simple" (amenable to solutions from science alone), "complicated" (socially agreed upon but technically complicated), "complex" (scientifically challenging and significant levels of social disagreement) or "chaotic" (high social disagreement and highly scientifically challenging). Only three of the issues were likely to be resolved by improved science alone, while the remainder require engagement with social, economic and political factors. Fortunately, none of the issues were considered chaotic. Nevertheless, strategic communication, education and engagement with the populace and policy makers were considered vital for addressing emerging issues.

Superimposed microplastic pollution in a coastal metropolis

The mitigation of microplastic pollution in the environment calls for a better understanding of the sources and transportation, especially from land sources to the open ocean. We conducted a large-scale investigation of microplastic pollution across the Greater Melbourne Area and the Western Port area, Australia, spanning gradients of land-use from un-developed catchments in conservation areas to more heavily-developed areas. Microplastics were detected in 94% of water samples and 96% of sediment samples, with abundances ranging from 0.06 to 2.5 items/L in water and 0.9 to 298.1 items/kg in sediment. The variation of microplastic abundance in sediments was closely related to that of the overlying waters. Fiber was the most abundant (89.1% and 68.6% of microplastics in water and sediment respectively), and polyester was the dominant polymer in water and sediment. The size of more than 40% of all total microplastics observed was less than 1 mm. Both light and dense polymers of different shapes were more abundant in sediments than those in water, indicating that there is microplastic accumulation in sediments. The abundance of microplastics was higher near coastal cities than at less densely-populated inland areas. A spatial analysis of the data suggests that the abundance of microplastics increases downstream in rivers and accumulates in estuaries and the lentic reaches of these rivers. Correlation and redundancy analysis were used to explore the associations between microplastic pollution and different land-use types. More microplastics and polymer types were found at areas with large amounts of commercial, industrial and transport activities. Microplastic abundances were also correlated with mean particle size. Microplastic hotspots within a coastal metropolis might be caused by a combination of natural accumulation via hydrological dynamics and contribution from increasing anthropogenic influences. Our results strongly suggest that coastal metropolis superimposed on increasing microplastic levels in waterbodies from inland areas to the estuaries and open oceans.