Animal migration to northern latitudes: environmental changes and increasing threats

Nutrition biomarker assessment and exploration of the role of country foods to improve food security in the Sahtú Region, Canada

Country foods (i.e. wild traditional food) are associated with improved nutrition for northern populations. In response to community concerns, a project was implemented from 2019 to 2021 in the Sahtú region, Northwest Territories, Canada, to: 1) analyse nutrition biomarkers (vitamins A, B1, B2, B6, B12, D, E, folate, P, Na) in blood samples, in order to assess nutritional status and identify nutrient deficiencies, and 2) use a survey to document how access to country foods may improve food security in the community of Tulı́t'a. Findings from the nutritional biomarker assessments (n = 128) indicated that 94% of participants experienced clinical vitamin D deficiency (<20 ng/L of plasma 25-hydroxy-vitamin D3) and 9% had folate deficiency (<8.7 nmol/L total folate). In the previous 12 months, 71% of participants did not always have money to get more food when needed, but 92% of participants said they were not left hungry. Country foods were used to increase the quality or quantity of the diet. Increasing country food consumption, such as fatty fish and large game meat and organs could mitigate the vitamin D and folate deficiencies. Policies should be implemented to improve food security in the North by facilitating access to country food.

Multispecies migratory connectivity indicates hemispheric-scale risk to bird populations from global change

Global agreements to reduce the extinction risk of migratory species depend critically on intersecting migratory connectivity-the linking of individuals between regions in different seasons-and spatial patterns of environmental change. Here we integrate movement data from >329,000 migratory birds of 112 species to develop a parameter representing exposure to global change: multispecies migratory connectivity. We then combine exposure with projected climate and land-cover changes as a measure of hazard and species conservation assessment scores as a metric of vulnerability to estimate the relative risk of migratory bird population declines across the Western Hemisphere. Multispecies migratory connectivity (exposure) is the strongest driver of risk relative to hazard and vulnerability, indicating the importance of synthesizing connectivity across species to comprehensively assess risk. Connections between breeding regions in Canada and non-breeding regions in South America are at the greatest risk, which underscores the particular susceptibility of long-distance migrants. Over half (54%) of the connections categorized as very high risk include breeding regions in the eastern United States. This three-part framework serves as an ecological risk assessment designed specifically for migratory species, providing both decision support for global biodiversity conservation and opportunities for intergovernmental collaboration to sustain migratory bird populations year-round.

Bats surf storm fronts during spring migration

Long-distance migration, common in passerine birds, is rare and poorly studied in bats. Piloting a 1.2-gram IoT (Internet of Things) tag with onboard processing, we tracked the daily location, temperature, and activity of female common noctules (Nyctalus noctula) during spring migration across central Europe up to 1116 kilometers. Over 3 years, 71 bats migrated tens to hundreds of kilometers per night, predominantly with incoming warm fronts, which provided them with wind support. Bats also showed unexpected flexibility in their ability to migrate across a wide range of conditions if needed. However, females leaving toward the end of the season showed higher total activity per distance traveled, a possible cost for their flexible migration timing.

Migration routes and adult survival of the critically endangered yellow-breasted bunting Emberiza aureola

Migratory animals rely on multiple sites during their annual cycles. Deteriorating conditions at any site can have population-level consequences, with long-distance migrants seen as especially susceptible to such changes. Reduced adult survival caused by persecution at non-breeding sites has been suggested a major reason for the catastrophic decline of a formerly abundant, long-distance migratory songbird, the Yellow-breasted Bunting Emberiza aureola. However, it is unknown whether the ongoing extinction of this Eurasian species especially in the west of its range could be related to differences in survival or migration routes. We investigated survival rates of populations from both western and eastern parts of the breeding range and successfully tracked the migration of individuals from two eastern populations with light-level geolocators. We found moderate apparent local survival rates in eastern populations, but observed no returning birds in western populations. Our tracking data highlights (1) a joint migration corridor of eastern populations through eastern China, (2) long autumn stopovers likely used for moult and re-fuelling, and (3) very long occurrences at wintering sites. These areas should be given priority for future conservation measures. We call for an increased monitoring of adult survival and breeding output in multiple populations (including western ones) of this critically endangered species to determine (1) the causes for the observed differences in apparent local survival and (2) whether the current survival rates are sufficient to sustain viable breeding populations.

Great Gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) in Central Asia Are Spreading to Higher Latitudes and Altitudes

The great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) is a gregarious rodent in Central Asia and is one of the major pests found in desert forest and grassland areas. The distribution changes and migration routes of R. opimus in Central Asia under climate change remain unexplored. This study employed multi-model ensemble, correlation analysis, jackknife method, and minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model to simulate the potential habitat of R. opimus under current and future (2030 and 2050) climate scenarios and estimate its possible migration routes. The results indicate that the ensemble model integrating Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) performed best within the present climate context. The model predicted the potential distribution of R. opimus in Central Asia with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.986 and a True Skill Statistic (TSS) of 0.899, demonstrating excellent statistical accuracy and spatial performance. Under future climate scenarios, northern Xinjiang and southeastern Kazakhstan will remain the core areas of R. opimus distribution. However, the optimal habitat region will expand relative to the current one. This expansion will increase with the rising CO2 emission levels and over time, potentially enlarging the suitable area by up to 39.49 × 104 km2. In terms of spatial distribution, the suitable habitat for R. opimus is shifting toward higher latitudes and elevations. For specific migration routes, R. opimus tends to favor paths through farmland and grassland. This study can provide guidance for managing and controlling R. opimus under future climate change scenarios.

Long-term effects of climate change on juvenile bull shark migratory patterns

Seasonal variability in environmental conditions is a strong determinant of animal migrations, but warming temperatures associated with climate change are anticipated to alter this phenomenon with unknown consequences. We used a 40-year fishery-independent survey to assess how a changing climate has altered the migration timing, duration and first-year survival of juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas). From 1982 to 2021, estuaries in the western Gulf of Mexico (Texas) experienced a mean increase of 1.55°C in autumn water temperatures, and delays in autumn cold fronts by ca. 0.5 days per year. Bull shark migrations in more northern estuaries concomitantly changed, with departures 25-36 days later in 2021 than in 1982. Later, migrations resulted in reduced overwintering durations by up to 81 days, and the relative abundance of post-overwintering age 0-1 sharks increased by >50% during the 40-year study period. Yet, reductions in prey availability were the most influential factor delaying migrations. Juvenile sharks remained in natal estuaries longer when prey were less abundant. Long-term declines in prey reportedly occurred due to reduced spawning success associated with climate change based on published reports. Consequently, warming waters likely enabled and indirectly caused the observed changes in shark migratory behaviour. As water temperatures continue to rise, bull sharks in the north-western Gulf of Mexico could forgo their winter migrations in the next 50-100 years based on current trends and physiological limits, thereby altering their ecological roles in estuarine ecosystems and recruitment into the adult population. It is unclear if estuarine food webs will be able to support changing residency patterns as climate change affects the spawning success of forage species. We expect these trends are not unique to the western Gulf of Mexico or bull sharks, and migratory patterns of predators in subtropical latitudes are similarly changing at a global scale.

Animal migration in the Anthropocene: threats and mitigation options

Animal migration has fascinated scientists and the public alike for centuries, yet migratory animals are facing diverse threats that could lead to their demise. The Anthropocene is characterised by the reality that humans are the dominant force on Earth, having manifold negative effects on biodiversity and ecosystem function. Considerable research focus has been given to assessing anthropogenic impacts on the numerical abundance of species/populations, whereas relatively less attention has been devoted to animal migration. However, there are clear linkages, for example, where human-driven impacts on migration behaviour can lead to population/species declines or even extinction. Here, we explore anthropogenic threats to migratory animals (in all domains - aquatic, terrestrial, and aerial) using International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Threat Taxonomy classifications. We reveal the diverse threats (e.g. human development, disease, invasive species, climate change, exploitation, pollution) that impact migratory wildlife in varied ways spanning taxa, life stages and type of impact (e.g. from direct mortality to changes in behaviour, health, and physiology). Notably, these threats often interact in complex and unpredictable ways to the detriment of wildlife, further complicating management. Fortunately, we are beginning to identify strategies for conserving and managing migratory animals in the Anthropocene. We provide a set of strategies that, if embraced, have the potential to ensure that migratory animals, and the important ecological functions sustained by migration, persist.

Evolution of ion transporter Na+/K+-ATPase expression in the osmoregulatory maxillary glands of an invasive copepod

While many freshwater invaders originate from saline habitats, the physiological mechanisms involved are poorly understood. We investigated the evolution of ion transporter Na+/K+-ATPase (NKA) protein expression between ancestral saline and freshwater invading populations of the copepod Eurytemora carolleae (Atlantic clade of the E. affinis complex). We compared in situ NKA expression between populations under common-garden conditions at three salinities in the maxillary glands. We found the evolution of reduced NKA expression in the freshwater population under freshwater conditions and reduced plasticity (canalization) across salinities, relative to the saline population. Our results support the hypothesis that maxillary glands are involved in ion reabsorption from excretory fluids at low-salinity conditions in the saline population. However, mechanisms of freshwater adaptation, such as increased ion uptake from the environment, might reduce the need for ion reabsorption in the freshwater population. These patterns of ion transporter expression contribute insights into the evolution of ionic regulation during habitat change.

Effects of migratory animals on resident parasite dynamics

Migratory animals can bring parasites into resident animal (i.e., non-migratory) home ranges (transport effects) and exert trophic effects that either promote or reduce parasite exposure to resident hosts. Here, we examine the importance of these transport and trophic effects and their interactions for resident parasite dynamics. We propose that migrant transport and trophic effects are impacted by the number of migratory animals entering a resident's home range (migration intensity), the amount of time that migrants spend within a resident's home range (migration duration), and the timing of migrant-resident interactions. We then incorporate migration intensity, duration, and timing into a framework for exploring the net impact of migrant trophic and transport effects on resident animal parasite prevalence.

Riding the wetland wave: Can ducks locate macroinvertebrate resources across the breeding season?

Food availability varies considerably over space and time in wetland systems, and consumers must be able to track those changes during energetically-demanding points in the life cycle like breeding. Resource tracking has been studied frequently among herbivores, but receives less attention among consumers of macroinvertebrates. We evaluated the change in resource availability across habitat types and time and the simultaneous density of waterfowl consumers throughout their breeding season in a high-elevation, flood-irrigated system. We also assessed whether the macroinvertebrate resource density better predicted waterfowl density across habitats, compared to consistency (i.e., temporal evenness) of the invertebrate resource or taxonomic richness. Resource density varied marginally across wetland types but was highest in basin wetlands (i.e., ponds) and peaked early in the breeding season, whereas it remained relatively low and stable in other wetland habitats. Breeding duck density was positively related to resource density, more so than temporal resource stability, for all species. Resource density was negatively related to duckling density, however. These results have the potential to not only elucidate mechanisms of habitat selection among breeding ducks in flood-irrigated landscapes but also suggest there is not a consequential trade-off to selecting wetland sites based on energy density versus temporal resource stability and that good-quality wetland sites provide both.

Double jeopardy: global change and interspecies competition threaten Siberian cranes

Anthropogenic global change is precipitating a worldwide biodiversity crisis, with myriad species teetering on the brink of extinction. The Arctic, a fragile ecosystem already on the frontline of global change, bears witness to rapid ecological transformations catalyzed by escalating temperatures. In this context, we explore the ramifications of global change and interspecies competition on two arctic crane species: the critically endangered Siberian crane (Leucogeranus leucogeranus) and the non-threatened sandhill crane (Grus canadensis). How might global climate and landcover changes affect the range dynamics of Siberian cranes and sandhill cranes in the Arctic, potentially leading to increased competition and posing a greater threat to the critically endangered Siberian cranes? To answer these questions, we integrated ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) to predict breeding distributions, considering both abiotic and biotic factors. Our results reveal a profound divergence in how global change impacts these crane species. Siberian cranes are poised to lose a significant portion of their habitats, while sandhill cranes are projected to experience substantial range expansion. Furthermore, we identify a growing overlap in breeding areas, intensifying interspecies competition, which may imperil the Siberian crane. Notably, we found the Anzhu Islands may become a Siberian crane refuge under global change, but competition with Sandhill Cranes underscores the need for enhanced conservation management. Our study underscores the urgency of considering species responses to global changes and interspecies dynamics in risk assessments and conservation management. As anthropogenic pressures continue to mount, such considerations are crucial for the preservation of endangered species in the face of impending global challenges.

Fantastic beasts and how to study them: rethinking experimental animal behavior

Humans have been trying to understand animal behavior at least since recorded history. Recent rapid development of new technologies has allowed us to make significant progress in understanding the physiological and molecular mechanisms underlying behavior, a key goal of neuroethology. However, there is a tradeoff when studying animal behavior and its underlying biological mechanisms: common behavior protocols in the laboratory are designed to be replicable and controlled, but they often fail to encompass the variability and breadth of natural behavior. This Commentary proposes a framework of 10 key questions that aim to guide researchers in incorporating a rich natural context into their experimental design or in choosing a new animal study system. The 10 questions cover overarching experimental considerations that can provide a template for interspecies comparisons, enable us to develop studies in new model organisms and unlock new experiments in our quest to understand behavior.

Metabolic and microbial changes in light-vented bulbul during recent northward range expansion

Endotherms recently expanding to cold environments generally exhibit strong physiological acclimation to sustain high body temperature. During this process, gut microbes likely play a considerable role in host physiological functions, including digestion and thermogenesis. The light-vented bulbul Pycnonotus sinensis represents one such species. It used to be restricted to the Oriental realm but expanded its distribution range north to the Palearctic areas during the past few decades. Here, we explored the seasonal dynamics of the resting metabolic rate (RMR) and microbiota for local and newly colonized populations of the species. Our results showed that the mass-adjusted RMR and body mass were positively correlated with latitude variations in both seasons. Consistently, the gut microbiota showed a corresponding variation to the northern cold environments. In the two northern populations, the alpha diversity decreased compared with those of the two southern populations. Significant differences were detected in dominant phyla, such as Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes, Proteobacteria, and Desulfobacterota in both seasons. The core microbiota showed geographic differences in the winter, including the elevated relative abundance of 5 species in northern populations. Finally, to explore the link between microbial communities and host metabolic thermogenesis, we conducted a correlation analysis between microbiota and mass-adjusted RMR. We found that more genera were significantly correlated with mass-adjusted RMR in the wintering season compared to the breeding season (71 vs. 23). These results suggest that microbiota of the lighted-vented bulbul linked with thermogenesis in diversity and abundance under northward expansion.

Climate is changing, are European bats too? A multispecies analysis of trends in body size

Animal size, a trait sensitive to spatial and temporal variables, is a key element in ecological and evolutionary dynamics. In the context of climate change, there is evidence that some bat species are increasing their body size via phenotypic responses to higher temperatures at maternity roosts. To test the generality of this response, we conducted a >20-year study examining body size changes in 15 bat species in Italy, analysing data from 4393 individual bats captured since 1995. In addition to examining the temporal effect, we considered the potential influence of sexual dimorphism and, where relevant, included latitude and altitude as potential drivers of body size change. Contrary to initial predictions of a widespread increase in size, our findings challenge this assumption, revealing a nuanced interplay of factors contributing to the complexity of bat body size dynamics. Specifically, only three species (Myotis daubentonii, Nyctalus leisleri, and Pipistrellus pygmaeus) out of the 15 exhibited a discernible increase in body size over the studied period, prompting a reassessment of bats as reliable indicators of climate change based on alterations in body size. Our investigation into influencing factors highlighted the significance of temperature-related variables, with latitude and altitude emerging as crucial drivers. In some cases, this mirrored patterns consistent with Bergmann's rule, revealing larger bats recorded at progressively higher latitudes (Plecotus auritus, Myotis mystacinus, and Miniopterus schreibersii) or altitudes (Pipistrellus kuhlii). We also observed a clear sexual dimorphism effect in most species, with females consistently larger than males. The observed increase in size over time in three species suggests the occurrence of phenotypic plasticity, raising questions about potential long-term selective pressures on larger individuals. The unresolved question of whether temperature-related changes in body size reflect microevolutionary processes or phenotypic plastic responses adds further complexity to our understanding of body size patterns in bats over time and space.

Determinants of spring migration departure dates in a New World sparrow: Weather variables reign supreme

Numerous factors influence the timing of spring migration in birds, yet the relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic variables on migration initiation remains unclear. To test for interactions among weather, migration distance, parasitism, and physiology in determining spring departure date, we used the Dark-eyed Junco (Junco hyemalis) as a model migratory species known to harbor diverse and common haemosporidian parasites. Prior to spring migration departure from their wintering grounds in Indiana, USA, we quantified the intrinsic variables of fat, body condition (i.e., mass ~ tarsus residuals), physiological stress (i.e., ratio of heterophils to lymphocytes), cellular immunity (i.e., leukocyte composition and total count), migration distance (i.e., distance to the breeding grounds) using stable isotopes of hydrogen from feathers, and haemosporidian parasite intensity. We then attached nanotags to determine the timing of spring migration departure date using the Motus Wildlife Tracking System. We used additive Cox proportional hazard mixed models to test how risk of spring migratory departure was predicted by the combined intrinsic measures, along with meteorological predictors on the evening of departure (i.e., average wind speed and direction, relative humidity, and temperature). Model comparisons found that the best predictor of spring departure date was average nightly wind direction and a principal component combining relative humidity and temperature. Juncos were more likely to depart for spring migration on nights with largely southwestern winds and on warmer and drier evenings (relative to cooler and more humid evenings). Our results indicate that weather conditions at take-off are more critical to departure decisions than the measured physiological and parasitism variables.

Onco-Breastomics: An Eco-Evo-Devo Holistic Approach

Known as a diverse collection of neoplastic diseases, breast cancer (BC) can be hyperbolically characterized as a dynamic pseudo-organ, a living organism able to build a complex, open, hierarchically organized, self-sustainable, and self-renewable tumor system, a population, a species, a local community, a biocenosis, or an evolving dynamical ecosystem (i.e., immune or metabolic ecosystem) that emphasizes both developmental continuity and spatio-temporal change. Moreover, a cancer cell community, also known as an oncobiota, has been described as non-sexually reproducing species, as well as a migratory or invasive species that expresses intelligent behavior, or an endangered or parasite species that fights to survive, to optimize its features inside the host's ecosystem, or that is able to exploit or to disrupt its host circadian cycle for improving the own proliferation and spreading. BC tumorigenesis has also been compared with the early embryo and placenta development that may suggest new strategies for research and therapy. Furthermore, BC has also been characterized as an environmental disease or as an ecological disorder. Many mechanisms of cancer progression have been explained by principles of ecology, developmental biology, and evolutionary paradigms. Many authors have discussed ecological, developmental, and evolutionary strategies for more successful anti-cancer therapies, or for understanding the ecological, developmental, and evolutionary bases of BC exploitable vulnerabilities. Herein, we used the integrated framework of three well known ecological theories: the Bronfenbrenner's theory of human development, the Vannote's River Continuum Concept (RCC), and the Ecological Evolutionary Developmental Biology (Eco-Evo-Devo) theory, to explain and understand several eco-evo-devo-based principles that govern BC progression. Multi-omics fields, taken together as onco-breastomics, offer better opportunities to integrate, analyze, and interpret large amounts of complex heterogeneous data, such as various and big-omics data obtained by multiple investigative modalities, for understanding the eco-evo-devo-based principles that drive BC progression and treatment. These integrative eco-evo-devo theories can help clinicians better diagnose and treat BC, for example, by using non-invasive biomarkers in liquid-biopsies that have emerged from integrated omics-based data that accurately reflect the biomolecular landscape of the primary tumor in order to avoid mutilating preventive surgery, like bilateral mastectomy. From the perspective of preventive, personalized, and participatory medicine, these hypotheses may help patients to think about this disease as a process governed by natural rules, to understand the possible causes of the disease, and to gain control on their own health.

Evolution of reproductive strategies: sex roles, sex ratios and phylogenies

Behavioural variations associated with breeding-termed reproductive strategies-are some of the striking behaviours that have occupied naturalists for 1000s of years. How an animal seeks, competes for and/or chooses a mate? Do they breed with a single partner, or do they change partners between breeding events? How and when do they look after their young? Behavioural biologists, ecologists and evolutionary biologists have investigated these questions using quantitative methods since 1970s. In Debrecen, with the support and mentoring of Prof Zoltán Varga, we are investigating the causes and implications of reproductive strategies since 1988. This article reviews some of the core ideas in reproductive strategies research and explains the influence of Prof Varga on the development of these ideas. My main thesis here is that both integrative thinking and adopting a multi-pronged research approach using an explicit phylogenetic framework-both of these have been spearheaded by Prof Varga throughout his lifetime-can reveal novel aspects of reproductive strategies. Importantly, some of these academic insights have direct implications for preserving species and their habitats in the wild, and thus benefit biodiversity conservation.

Multi-omics for studying and understanding polar life

Polar ecosystems are experiencing amongst the most rapid rates of regional warming on Earth. Here, we discuss 'omics' approaches to investigate polar biodiversity, including the current state of the art, future perspectives and recommendations. We propose a community road map to generate and more fully exploit multi-omics data from polar organisms. These data are needed for the comprehensive evaluation of polar biodiversity and to reveal how life evolved and adapted to permanently cold environments with extreme seasonality. We argue that concerted action is required to mitigate the impact of warming on polar ecosystems via conservation efforts, to sustainably manage these unique habitats and their ecosystem services, and for the sustainable bioprospecting of novel genes and compounds for societal gain.

A unified evolutionary framework for understanding parasite infection and host migratory behaviour

Animal migration impacts organismal health and parasite transmission: migrants are simultaneously exposed to parasites and able to reduce infection for both individuals and populations. However, these dynamics are difficult to study; empirical studies reveal disparate results while existing theory makes assumptions that simplify natural complexity. Here, we systematically review empirical studies of migration and infection across taxa, highlighting key gaps in our understanding. Next, we develop a unified evolutionary framework incorporating different selective pressures of parasite-migration interactions while accounting for ecological complexity that goes beyond previous theory. Our framework generates diverse migration-infection patterns paralleling those seen in empirical systems, including partial and differential migration. Finally, we generate predictions about which mechanisms dominate which empirical systems to guide future studies. Our framework provides an overarching understanding of selective pressures shaping migration patterns in the context of animal health and disease, which is critical for predicting how environmental change may threaten migration.

Genome architecture underlying salinity adaptation in the invasive copepod Eurytemora affinis species complex: A review

With climate change, habitat salinity is shifting rapidly throughout the globe. In addition, many destructive freshwater invaders are recent immigrants from saline habitats. Recently, populations of the copepod Eurytemora affinis species complex have invaded freshwater habitats multiple times independently from saline estuaries on three continents. This review discusses features of this species complex that could enhance their evolutionary potential during rapid environmental change. Remarkably, across independent freshwater invasions, natural selection has repeatedly favored the same alleles far more than expected. This high degree of parallelism is surprising, given the expectation of nonparallel evolution for polygenic adaptation. Factors such as population structure and the genome architecture underlying critical traits under selection might help drive rapid adaptation and parallel evolution. Given the preponderance of saline-to-freshwater invasions and climate-induced salinity change, the principles found here could provide invaluable insights into mechanisms operating in other systems and the potential for adaptation in a changing planet.

Interactions between parasitism and migration in monarch butterflies

In many species, migration can increase parasite burdens or diversity as hosts move between diverse habitats with different parasite assemblages. On the other hand, migration can reduce parasite prevalence by letting animals escape infested habitats, or by exacerbating the costs of parasitism, leading to culling or dropout. How the balance between these negative and positive interactions is maintained or how they will change under anthropogenic pressure remains poorly understood. Here, we summarize the relationship between migration and infectious disease in monarch butterflies, finding that migration can reduce parasite prevalence through a combination of migratory culling and dropout. Because parasite prevalence has risen in recent decades, these processes are now resulting in the loss of tens of millions of monarchs. We highlight the remaining questions, asking how migration influences population genetics and virulence, how the establishment of resident populations interferes with migration, and whether infection can interfere with migratory cognition.

Extent and impacts of winter breeding in the North American monarch butterfly

Since the 1960s, scientists have observed the North American monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) continuing reproductive activities past the fall migration and into the winter months when the climate is mild. Recent work suggests that small populations of winter breeding monarchs are present in western and southeastern USA, as well as northwestern Mexico, with new winter breeding populations forming in areas where non-native milkweeds are planted. The year-round presence of milkweed plants and temperatures suitable for immature monarch development are vital factors allowing for winter breeding. Non-native milkweeds, in conjunction with novel barriers to migration, are likely contributing to the rise in winter breeding behavior. Warmer climates are already impacting milkweed phenology and range, possibly favoring winter breeding behavior. Similar pressures but different implications are expected for eastern and western winter breeding monarchs given the differences in the migration ecology, milkweed species, and climate changes in the two regions.

Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration

Climate change is one of the top three global threats to seabirds, particularly species that visit polar regions. Arctic terns migrate between both polar regions annually and rely on productive marine areas to forage, on sea ice for rest and foraging, and prevailing winds during flight. Here, we report 21st-century trends in environmental variables affecting arctic terns at key locations along their Atlantic/Indian Ocean migratory flyway during the non-breeding seasons, identified through tracking data. End-of-century climate change projections were derived from Earth System Models and multi-model means calculated in two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: 'middle-of-the-road' and 'fossil-fuelled development' scenarios. Declines in North Atlantic primary production emerge as a major impact to arctic terns likely to affect their foraging during the 21st century under a 'fossil-fuelled development' scenario. Minimal changes are, however, projected at three other key regions visited by arctic terns (Benguela Upwelling, Subantarctic Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean). Southern Ocean sea ice extent is likely to decline, but the magnitude of change and potential impacts on tern survival are uncertain. Small changes (<1 m s-1 ) in winds are projected in both scenarios, but with minimal likely impacts on migration routes and duration. However, Southern Ocean westerlies are likely to strengthen and contract closer to the continent, which may require arctic terns to shift routes or flight strategies. Overall, we find minor effects of climate change on the migration of arctic terns, with the exception of poorer foraging in the North Atlantic. However, given that arctic terns travel over huge spatial scales and live for decades, they integrate minor changes in conditions along their migration routes such that the sum effect may be greater than the parts. Meeting carbon emission targets is vital to slow these end-of-century climatic changes and minimise extinction risk for a suite of polar species.

Differing drivers of decline within a migratory metapopulation has implications for future conservation

Researchers generally ascribe demographic drivers in a single sub-population and presume they are representative. With this information, practitioners implement blanket conservation measures across metapopulations to reverse declines. However, such approaches may not be appropriate in circumstances where sub-populations are spatiotemporally segregated and exposed to different environmental variation. The Greenland White-fronted Goose, Anser albifrons flavirostris, is an Arctic-nesting migrant that largely comprises two sub-populations (delineated by northerly and southerly breeding areas in west Greenland). The metapopulation has declined since 1999 but this trend is only mirrored in one sub-population and the causes of this disparity are unclear. Here we compare the drivers and trends of productivity in both sub-populations using population- and individual-level analysis. We examined how temperature and precipitation influenced population-level reproductive success over 37 years and whether there was a change in the relationship when metapopulation decline commenced. In addition, we used biologging devices to remotely classify incubation events for 86 bird-years and modelled how phenology and environmental conditions influenced individual-level nest survival. Correlations between reproductive success and temperature/precipitation on the breeding grounds have weakened for both sub-populations. This has resulted in lower reproductive success for the northerly, but not southerly breeding sub-population, which at the individual-level appears to be driven by lower nest survival. Earlier breeding ground arrival and less precipitation during incubation increased nest survival in the northerly breeding population, while no factors examined were important for the southerly breeding sub-population. This suggests reproductive success is driven by different factor(s) in the two sub-populations. Demographic rates and their environmental drivers differ between the sub-populations examined here and consequently we encourage further decomposition of demography within metapopulations. This is important for conservation practitioners to consider as bespoke conservation strategies, targeting different limiting factors, may be required for different sub-populations.

Egg characteristics vary longitudinally in Arctic shorebirds

Arctic environments are changing rapidly and if we are to understand the resilience of species to future changes, we need to investigate alterations in their life histories. Egg size and egg shape are key life-history traits, reflecting parental investment as well as influencing future reproductive success. Here we focus on egg characteristics in two Arctic shorebirds, the Dunlin (Calidris alpina) and the Temminck's stint (Calidris temminckii). Using egg photos that encompass their full breeding ranges, we show that egg characteristics exhibit significant longitudinal variations, and the variation in the monogamous species (Dunlin) is significantly greater than the polygamous species (Temminck's stint). Our finding is consistent with the recent "disperse-to-mate" hypothesis which asserts that polygamous species disperse further to find mates than monogamous species, and by doing so they create panmictic populations. Taken together, Arctic shorebirds offer excellent opportunities to understand evolutionary patterns in life history traits.

The effects of light pollution on migratory animal behavior

Light pollution is a global threat to biodiversity, especially migratory organisms, some of which traverse hemispheric scales. Research on light pollution has grown significantly over the past decades, but our review of migratory organisms demonstrates gaps in our understanding, particularly beyond migratory birds. Research across spatial scales reveals the multifaceted effects of artificial light on migratory species, ranging from local and regional to macroscale impacts. These threats extend beyond species that are active at night - broadening the scope of this threat. Emerging tools for measuring light pollution and its impacts, as well as ecological forecasting techniques, present new pathways for conservation, including transdisciplinary approaches.

Can a present-day thermal niche be preserved in a warming climate by a shift in phenology? A case study with sea turtles

How species respond to climate change may impact their extinction probability. Here we link climatology and ecology to tackle a globally important conservation question. For sea turtles, there are concerns that climate warming will cause both the feminization of populations as well as reduced hatchling survival. For 58 nesting sites across the world spanning all seven sea turtle species, we investigated whether warming might be avoided by shifts in nesting phenology to a cooler part of the year. We show that even with the most extreme phenological shift that has been reported to date-an 18-day advance in nesting per °C increase in sea surface temperature (SST)-temperatures will continue to increase at nesting sites with climate warming. We estimate that SST at nesting sites will rise by an average of 0.6°C (standard deviation = 0.9°C, n = 58) when we model a 1.5°C rise in SST combined with a best-case-scenario shift in nesting. Since sea turtles exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination, these temperature rises could lead to increasingly female-biased sex ratios as well as reduced hatchling production at sites across the world. These findings underscore concerns for the long-term survival of this iconic group.

Spatial consistency in drivers of population dynamics of a declining migratory bird

Many migratory species are in decline across their geographical ranges. Single-population studies can provide important insights into drivers at a local scale, but effective conservation requires multi-population perspectives. This is challenging because relevant data are often hard to consolidate, and state-of-the-art analytical tools are typically tailored to specific datasets. We capitalized on a recent data harmonization initiative (SPI-Birds) and linked it to a generalized modelling framework to identify the demographic and environmental drivers of large-scale population decline in migratory pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) breeding across Britain. We implemented a generalized integrated population model (IPM) to estimate age-specific vital rates, including their dependency on environmental conditions, and total and breeding population size of pied flycatchers using long-term (34-64 years) monitoring data from seven locations representative of the British breeding range. We then quantified the relative contributions of different vital rates and population structure to changes in short- and long-term population growth rate using transient life table response experiments (LTREs). Substantial covariation in population sizes across breeding locations suggested that change was the result of large-scale drivers. This was supported by LTRE analyses, which attributed past changes in short-term population growth rates and long-term population trends primarily to variation in annual survival and dispersal dynamics, which largely act during migration and/or nonbreeding season. Contributions of variation in local reproductive parameters were small in comparison, despite sensitivity to local temperature and rainfall within the breeding period. We show that both short- and long-term population changes of British breeding pied flycatchers are likely linked to factors acting during migration and in nonbreeding areas, where future research should be prioritized. We illustrate the potential of multi-population analyses for informing management at (inter)national scales and highlight the importance of data standardization, generalized and accessible analytical tools, and reproducible workflows to achieve them.

Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains

The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under "space-for-time substitution", the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space-for-time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid- versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23-year period (1996-2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space-for-time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space-for-time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales.

Integrating data types to estimate spatial patterns of avian migration across the Western Hemisphere

For many avian species, spatial migration patterns remain largely undescribed, especially across hemispheric extents. Recent advancements in tracking technologies and high-resolution species distribution models (i.e., eBird Status and Trends products) provide new insights into migratory bird movements and offer a promising opportunity for integrating independent data sources to describe avian migration. Here, we present a three-stage modeling framework for estimating spatial patterns of avian migration. First, we integrate tracking and band re-encounter data to quantify migratory connectivity, defined as the relative proportions of individuals migrating between breeding and nonbreeding regions. Next, we use estimated connectivity proportions along with eBird occurrence probabilities to produce probabilistic least-cost path (LCP) indices. In a final step, we use generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) both to evaluate the ability of LCP indices to accurately predict (i.e., as a covariate) observed locations derived from tracking and band re-encounter data sets versus pseudo-absence locations during migratory periods and to create a fully integrated (i.e., eBird occurrence, LCP, and tracking/band re-encounter data) spatial prediction index for mapping species-specific seasonal migrations. To illustrate this approach, we apply this framework to describe seasonal migrations of 12 bird species across the Western Hemisphere during pre- and postbreeding migratory periods (i.e., spring and fall, respectively). We found that including LCP indices with eBird occurrence in GAMMs generally improved the ability to accurately predict observed migratory locations compared to models with eBird occurrence alone. Using three performance metrics, the eBird + LCP model demonstrated equivalent or superior fit relative to the eBird-only model for 22 of 24 species-season GAMMs. In particular, the integrated index filled in spatial gaps for species with over-water movements and those that migrated over land where there were few eBird sightings and, thus, low predictive ability of eBird occurrence probabilities (e.g., Amazonian rainforest in South America). This methodology of combining individual-based seasonal movement data with temporally dynamic species distribution models provides a comprehensive approach to integrating multiple data types to describe broad-scale spatial patterns of animal movement. Further development and customization of this approach will continue to advance knowledge about the full annual cycle and conservation of migratory birds.

Viewing animal migration through a social lens

Evidence of social learning is growing across the animal kingdom. Researchers have long hypothesized that social interactions play a key role in many animal migrations, but strong empirical support is scarce except in a few unique systems and species. In this review, we aim to catalyze advances in the study of social migrations by synthesizing research across disciplines and providing a framework for understanding when, how, and why social influences shape the decisions animals make during migration. Integrating research across the fields of social learning and migration ecology will advance our understanding of the complex behavioral phenomena of animal migration and help to inform conservation of animal migrations in a changing world.

Increasing Arctic Tundra Flooding Threatens Wildlife Habitat and Survival: Impacts on the Critically Endangered Siberian Crane (Grus leucogeranus)

Climate change is causing Arctic temperatures to increase at least twice as fast as the planet on average. Temperature and precipitation are predicted to continue increasing, such that flooding might become more prevalent in the new Arctic. Increased flooding frequency and extreme flooding events may pose new threats to Arctic biodiversity through habitat disturbance and decreased survival. We used the Siberian crane (Grus leucogeranus) as a model organism to investigate how flooding influences nesting habitat availability and juvenile counts. When spring flooding destroys eggs, adults either do not raise any chicks or have reduced time to prepare them for their long migration to China, thus years with extensive flooding could negatively impact future crane generations. We used nest site observation data from 14 surveys between 1995 and 2019, habitat mapping based on Landsat 8 imagery, and species distribution modeling to predict Siberian crane potential nesting habitat. Nesting habitat loss due to extreme flooding was calculated by overlaying this potential nesting habitat with Global Surface Water data. The percent of potential flooded nest sites varied between 6.7–55% across years, with a significant increase between 2001 and 2018. Extreme flood events, as experienced in 2017 and 2018, eliminated almost half of the potential nesting habitat. Importantly, we found that the percentage of flooded nest sites across years was negatively correlated with the number of observed juveniles. The Arctic lowlands are exposed to seasonal water level fluctuations that species have evolved with and adapted to. Siberian cranes and other species depending on Arctic ecosystems are expected to continue adapting to changing flood conditions, but extreme flood events further threaten the long-term survival of critically endangered species. It is imperative to assess how ecosystems and species respond to climatic extremes to support Arctic conservation strategies.

Seasonal movements in caribou ecotypes of Western Canada

BACKGROUND

Several migratory ungulates, including caribou, are dramatically declining. Caribou of the Barren-ground ecotype, which forms its own subspecies, are known to be mainly migratory. By contrast, within the Woodland subspecies, animals of the Boreal ecotype are known to be mainly sedentary, while those within the Northern and Central Mountain ecotypes to be partially migratory, with only some individuals migrating. Promotion of conservation actions (e.g., habitat protection) that are specific to both residents and migrants, as well as to the areas they frequent seasonally (which may be separate for migrants), requires distinguishing migration from other movement behaviours, which might be a challenge.

METHODS

We aimed at assessing seasonal movement behaviours, including migratory, resident, dispersing, and nomadic, for caribou belonging to the Barren-ground and Woodland subspecies and ecotypes. We examined seasonal displacement, both planar and altitudinal, and seasonal ranges overlap for 366 individuals that were GPS-collared in Northern and Western Canada. Lastly, we assessed the ability of caribou individuals to switch between migratory and non-migratory movement behaviours between years.

RESULTS

We detected migratory behaviour within each of the studied subspecies and ecotypes. However, seasonal ranges overlap (an index of sedentary behaviour) varied, with proportions of clear migrants (0 overlap) of 40.94% for Barren-ground caribou and 23.34% for Woodland caribou, and of 32.95%, 54.87%, and 8.86% for its Northern Mountain, Central Mountain, and Boreal ecotype, respectively. Plastic switches of individuals were also detected between migratory, resident, dispersing, and nomadic seasonal movements performed across years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our unexpected findings of marked seasonal movement plasticity in caribou indicate that this phenomenon should be better studied to understand the resilience of this endangered species to habitat and climatic changes. Our results that a substantial proportion of individuals engaged in seasonal migration in all studied ecotypes indicate that caribou conservation plans should account for critical habitat in both summer and winter ranges. Accordingly, conservation strategies are being devised for the Woodland subspecies and its ecotypes, which were found to be at least partially migratory in this study. Our findings that migration is detectable with both planar and altitudinal analyses of seasonal displacement provide a tool to better define seasonal ranges, also in mountainous and hilly environments, and protect habitat there.

Understanding the dynamics of Arctic animal migrations in a changing world

This is submitted as an introduction to the special collection on, “Arctic Migrations in a Changing World”.