TRIVAC decision-support model for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of Haemophilus influenzae type b, pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccination

Effectiveness of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on all-cause pneumonia in children under 5 years in Shanghai, China: An observational study

BACKGROUND

Streptococcus pneumoniae (Spn) is a common respiratory pathogen and the main cause of bacterial pneumonia, meningitis, and bacteremia, acute otitis media. Imported 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) was licensed in China and introduced in Shanghai in 2017. We aim to describe PCV13 vaccination trends and pneumonia incidence of children under 5 from 2017 to 2020, then estimate the effectiveness of PCV13 against community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in children under 5 in Shanghai, China.

METHODS

By calculating propensity scores with logistic regression, a comparison group was formed by frequency matching one unvaccinated child to one vaccinated child. For matching, we used the nearest-neighbor matching algorithm and exact matching, and then created distinct matched analysis sets for two cohorts. A Kaplan-Meier analysis was conducted to measure the cumulative incidence of all-cause pneumonia in both groups and used the log-rank test to assess the differences between the two cumulative incidence curves. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to compare the adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of differences in all-cause pneumonia between the two groups.

RESULTS

Children received three or more doses PCV13 accounted for 85.7% of all vaccinated children. The incidence of pneumonia in Shanghai's Songjiang district decreased rapidly from 2017, when PCV13 vaccination presented an overall increasing trend. The estimated vaccine effectiveness against visits for all-cause pneumonia was 19% (95% CI: 3 to 32) after the first dose in children vaccinated with at least one dose of PCV13. The protective effectiveness of PCV13 was found to be higher for hospitalized pneumonia (30%, 95% CI: 5% to 49%) than for outpatient pneumonia (19%, 95% CI: 4% to 32%).

CONCLUSIONS

PCV13 vaccination among children aged 0-5 years substantially reduced the incidence of all-cause pneumonia. Direct immunization of children under 5 years is an effective strategy to combat outpatient pneumonia, and hospitalized pneumonia.

Infant mortality rates and pneumococcal vaccines: a time-series trend analysis in 194 countries, 1950-2020

Pneumonia due to Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) is a major cause of mortality in infants (children under 1 year of age), and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), delivered during the first year of life, are available since the year 2000. Given those two premises, the conclusion follows logically that favourable impact reported for PCVs in preventing pneumococcal disease should be reflected in the infant mortality rates (IMRs) from all causes. Using publicly available datasets, country-level IMR estimates from UNICEF and PCV introduction status from WHO, country-specific time series analysed the temporal relationship between annual IMRs and the introduction of PCVs, providing a unique context into the long-term secular trends of IMRs in countries that included and countries that did not include PCVs in their national immunisation programmes. PCV status was available for 194 countries during the period 1950-2020: 150 (77.3%) of these countries achieved nationwide PCV coverage at some point after the year 2000, 13 (6.7%) achieved only partial or temporary PCV coverage, and 31 (15.9%) never introduced PCVs to their population. One hundred and thirty-nine (92.7%) of countries that reported a decreasing (negative) trend in IMR, also reported a strong correlation with decreasing maternal mortality rates (MMRs), suggesting an improvement in overall child/mother healthcare. Conversely, all but one of the countries that never introduced PCVs in their national immunisation programme also reported a decreasing trend in IMR that strongly correlates with MMRs. IMRs have been decreasing for decades all over the world, but this latest decrease may not be related to PCVs.

Modeling the potential health impact of prospective Strep A vaccines

The World Health Organization published the preferred product characteristics for a Group A Streptococcus (Strep A) vaccine in 2018. Based on these parameters for the age of vaccination, vaccine efficacy, duration of protection from vaccine-derived immunity, and vaccination coverage, we developed a static cohort model to estimate the projected health impact of Strep A vaccination at the global, regional, and national levels and by country-income category. We used the model to analyse six strategic scenarios. Based on Strep A vaccine introduction between 2022 and 2034 for the primary scenario, we estimated vaccination at birth for 30 vaccinated cohorts could avert 2.5 billion episodes of pharyngitis, 354 million episodes of impetigo, 1.4 million episodes of invasive disease, 24 million episodes of cellulitis, and 6 million cases of rheumatic heart disease globally. Vaccination impact in terms of burden averted per fully vaccinated individual is highest in North America for cellulitis and in Sub-Saharan Africa for rheumatic heart disease.

Cost-effectiveness of pharmaceutical strategies to prevent respiratory syncytial virus disease in young children: a decision-support model for use in low-income and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory disease in young children. A number of mathematical models have been used to assess the cost-effectiveness of RSV prevention strategies, but these have not been designed for ease of use by multidisciplinary teams working in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

We describe the UNIVAC decision-support model (a proportionate outcomes static cohort model) and its approach to exploring the potential cost-effectiveness of two RSV prevention strategies: a single-dose maternal vaccine and a single-dose long-lasting monoclonal antibody (mAb) for infants. We identified model input parameters for 133 LMICs using evidence from the literature and selected national datasets. We calculated the potential cost-effectiveness of each RSV prevention strategy (compared to nothing and to each other) over the lifetimes of all children born in the year 2025 and compared our results to a separate model published by PATH. We ran sensitivity and scenario analyses to identify the inputs with the largest influence on the cost-effectiveness results.

RESULTS

Our illustrative results assuming base case input assumptions for maternal vaccination ($3.50 per dose, 69% efficacy, 6 months protection) and infant mAb ($3.50 per dose, 77% efficacy, 5 months protection) showed that both interventions were cost-saving compared to status quo in around one-third of 133 LMICs, and had a cost per DALY averted below 0.5 times the national GDP per capita in the remaining LMICs. UNIVAC generated similar results to a separate model published by PATH. Cost-effectiveness results were most sensitive to changes in the price, efficacy and duration of protection of each strategy, and the rate (and cost) of RSV hospital admissions.

CONCLUSIONS

Forthcoming RSV interventions (maternal vaccines and infant mAbs) are worth serious consideration in LMICs, but there is a good deal of uncertainty around several influential inputs, including intervention price, efficacy, and duration of protection. The UNIVAC decision-support model provides a framework for country teams to build consensus on data inputs, explore scenarios, and strengthen the local ownership and policy-relevance of results.

Pneumococcal Vaccination in Children: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cost-Effectiveness Studies

OBJECTIVES

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have significantly reduced disease burden caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality globally. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the incremental net benefit (INB) of the 13-valent PCV (PCV13) and 10-valent PCV (PCV10) in children.

METHODS

We performed a comprehensive search in several databases published before May 2022. Studies were included if they were cost-effectiveness or cost-utility analyses of PCV13 or PCV10 compared with no vaccination or with each other in children. Various monetary units were converted to purchasing power parity, adjusted to 2021 US dollars. The INBs were calculated and then pooled across studies stratified by country income level, perspective, and consideration of herd effects, using a random-effect model.

RESULTS

Seventy studies were included. When herd effects were considered, PCV13 was cost-effective compared with PCV10 from the payer perspective in both high-income countries (HICs) (INB, $103.94; 95% confidence interval, $75.28-$132.60) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) (INB, $53.49; 95% confidence interval, $30.42-$76.55) with statistical significance. These findings were robust across a series of sensitivity analyses. PCV13 was cost-effective compared with no vaccination across perspectives and consideration of herd effects in both HICs and LMICs, whereas findings were less consistent for PCV10.

CONCLUSION

PCVs were generally cost-effective compared with no vaccination in HICs and LMICs. Our study found that PCV13 was cost-effective compared with PCV10 when herd effects were considered from the payer perspective in both HICs and LMICs. The results are sensitive to the consideration of herd effects.

COVID-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: Projecting the effect of different routes to recovery

Over the past two decades, vaccination programmes for vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) have expanded across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the rise of COVID-19 resulted in global disruption to routine immunisation activities. Such disruptions could have a detrimental effect on public health, leading to more deaths from VPDs, particularly without mitigation efforts. Hence, as routine immunisation activities resume, it is important to estimate the effectiveness of different approaches for recovery. We apply an impact extrapolation method developed by the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium to estimate the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions with different recovery scenarios for ten VPDs across 112 LMICs. We focus on deaths averted due to routine immunisations occurring in the years 2020–2030 and investigate two recovery scenarios relative to a no-COVID-19 scenario. In the recovery scenarios, we assume a 10% COVID-19-related drop in routine immunisation coverage in the year 2020. We then linearly interpolate coverage to the year 2030 to investigate two routes to recovery, whereby the immunization agenda (IA2030) targets are reached by 2030 or fall short by 10%. We estimate that falling short of the IA2030 targets by 10% leads to 11.26% fewer fully vaccinated persons (FVPs) and 11.34% more deaths over the years 2020–2030 relative to the no-COVID-19 scenario, whereas, reaching the IA2030 targets reduces these proportions to 5% fewer FVPs and 5.22% more deaths. The impact of the disruption varies across the VPDs with diseases where coverage expands drastically in future years facing a smaller detrimental effect. Overall, our results show that drops in routine immunisation coverage could result in more deaths due to VPDs. As the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions is dependent on the vaccination coverage that is achieved over the coming years, the continued efforts of building up coverage and addressing gaps in immunity are vital in the road to recovery.

A review of rotavirus vaccine use in Asia and the Pacific regions: challenges and future prospects

Introduction: Rotavirus infection causes a significant proportion of diarrhea disease burden in children <5 years of age in Asia and the Pacific regions. The World Health Organization recommends that rotavirus vaccination should be included in national immunization programs to prevent rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE).Areas covered: A literature review was performed to identify and summarize published evidence on RVGE epidemiology and status of rotavirus vaccine use, including the impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination programs in Asia and the Pacific regions (49 countries) during the period 2000-2018.Expert opinion: Rotavirus vaccination programs have successfully reduced the burden of RVGE in many countries. However, such programs still do not exist in most Asia-Pacific countries, and therefore the burden of RVGE remains high in children <5 years of age. Challenges to vaccine implementation include a lack of surveillance data; safety concerns around intussusception; a general lack of awareness about RVGE disease epidemiology and vaccines among physicians, policy-makers, and parents; insufficient cost-effectiveness analyses; and potential issues with vaccine affordability including vaccination costs and lack of political will. Recommendations to overcome these challenges include developing cost-effectiveness analyses for more diverse national and regional settings, providing non-governmental support for low-income countries, and improving advocacy efforts.Plain language summaryWhat is the context?• Rotavirus (RV) infection causes acute gastroenteritis (GE) in children under 5 years of age.• Rotavirus vaccination (RVV) implementation has been slow in Asia and the Pacific (AP) regions, which could be responsible for the region falling behind in their fight against RVGE.What is new?• RVV via national immunization programs (NIPs) is available in 8/49 countries and through the private market or non-governmental support in other countries. Coverage rates vary between countries, possibly driven by the mechanism through which RVV is available.• A substantial positive impact of RVV on RVGE disease burden with a very low risk of intestinal intussusception for up to 7 days after RVV has been documented in the AP regions.• Economic evaluation studies, mainly cost-effectiveness analyses, predict a significant reduction in treatment costs related to RVGE and its complications showing that RVV is good value for money.What is the impact?• The prospect of continued safe and effective use of RVV in the AP regions is promising.• Challenges to RVV implementation include establishing evidence of burden of disease, poor awareness of rotavirus vaccines, limited evidence from cost-effectiveness analyses from several countries, issues of affordability of the vaccine and a lack of political will.• Recommendations for RVV implementation into the NIPs include conducting clinical and cost-effectiveness studies in countries where these are not available, establishing reliable surveillance mechanisms, providing non-governmental support for low-income countries and improving advocacy efforts.• Maintenance of high vaccination coverage is needed in countries that have implemented national RVV programs.Graphical abstract[Formula: see text].

Introduction of rotavirus vaccination in Palestine: An evaluation of the costs, impact, and cost-effectiveness of ROTARIX and ROTAVAC

INTRODUCTION

The Palestinian Ministry of Health (MOH) started a routine rotavirus immunization program with ROTARIX in May 2016, with support for vaccine procurement and introduction provided through a global development organization. In 2018, financial responsibility for rotavirus vaccine procurement was transferred to the Palestinian government, which elected to shift to ROTAVAC vaccine because of its lower price per dose. This study aims to assess the cost, impact, and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination, specifically evaluating the economic implications of the change in vaccine product, accounting for the different characteristics of each rotavirus vaccine used.

METHODS

We conducted primary and secondary data collection to assess the introduction, procurement, supply chain, and service delivery costs related to each vaccine. We used the UNIVAC model to project costs and benefits of rotavirus vaccination over a 10-year period comparing the use of ROTARIX versus no vaccination; ROTAVAC versus no vaccination; and ROTAVAC versus ROTARIX. We undertook scenario and probabilistic analyses to capture uncertainty in some of the study parameters. We used a 3% discount rate, and all costs are in 2018 US$.

RESULTS

The cost to deliver one dose was lower for ROTAVAC than ROTARIX (US$2.36 versus $2.70), but the total cost per course, excluding vaccine cost, favored ROTARIX ($7.09 versus $5.39). Both vaccines had high probability of being cost-effective interventions in Palestine compared to no vaccine. Because of lower vaccination program costs for ROTAVAC, however, switching from ROTARIX to ROTAVAC was cost-saving.

CONCLUSION

National decision-makers should consider systematically assessing multiple criteria beyond vaccine price when comparing the health and economic value of several products in order to fully account for all characteristics including product presentation, number of doses per course, cold chain volume, cost of delivery, and wastage.

Re-evaluating the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in 73 Gavi countries: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have found rotavirus vaccination to be highly cost-effective in low-income countries. However, updated evidence is now available for several inputs (ie, rotavirus disease mortality rates, rotavirus age distributions, vaccine timeliness, and vaccine efficacy by duration of follow-up), new rotavirus vaccines have entered the market, vaccine prices have decreased, and cost-effectiveness thresholds have been re-examined. We aimed to provide updated cost-effectiveness estimates to inform national decisions about the new introduction and current use of rotavirus vaccines in Gavi countries.

METHODS

We calculated the potential costs and effects of rotavirus vaccination for ten successive birth cohorts in 73 countries previously and currently eligible for Gavi support, compared with no vaccination. We used a deterministic cohort model to calculate numbers of rotavirus gastroenteritis cases, outpatient visits, hospitalisations, and deaths between birth and 5 years, with and without rotavirus vaccination. We calculated treatment costs from the government and societal perspectives. The primary outcome measure was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (discounted US$ per disability-adjusted life-year averted). Country-specific model input parameters were based on the scientific literature, published meta-analyses, and international databases. We ran deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty analyses.

FINDINGS

Over the period 2018-27, rotavirus vaccination has the potential to prevent nearly 600 000 deaths in Gavi countries. Averted outpatient visits and hospitalisations could lead to treatment savings of approximately $484·1 million from the government perspective and $878·0 million from the societal perspective. The discounted dollars per disability-adjusted life-year averted has a very high probability (>90%) of being less than 0·5 times the gross domestic product per capita in 54 countries, and less than 1·0 times gross domestic product per capita in 63 countries.

INTERPRETATION

Rotavirus vaccination continues to represent good value for money across most Gavi countries despite lower rotavirus mortality estimates and more stringent willingness-to-pay thresholds.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Using economic and social data to improve veterinary vaccine development: Learning lessons from human vaccinology

The drivers of vaccine development are many and varied. They include, for example, recognition of the burden of a vaccine-targeted disease, prioritisation of the multiple problems associated with a disease, consideration of the differing socio-economic situations under which vaccines are used, the influence of advocacy groups, and assessment of the feasibility of large-scale vaccine manufacture and distribution. In the field of human health, data-driven development of vaccines is becoming increasingly common through the availability of reliable information on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and stringent evaluations of vaccination programmes utilising empirical data on costing and effectiveness, and standardised cost-effectiveness thresholds. The data generated from such analyses allow policymakers, implementing partners, industries and researchers to make decisions based on the best, and most contextually relevant, available evidence. In this paper, we wish to explore the current use of economic and social data for the development of veterinary vaccines. Through comparison with the development of human vaccines, we will look for opportunities in animal health sciences to better integrate socio-economic data and analyses into the process of veterinary vaccine selection, development, and field implementation. We believe that more robust animal health impact assessments could add value to veterinary vaccine development by improving resource allocation and animal disease management.

Projected impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget implications of rotavirus vaccination in Mongolia

INTRODUCTION

Rotavirus disease in Mongolia is estimated to cause more than 50 deaths yearly and many more cases and hospitalizations. Mongolia must self-finance new vaccines and does not automatically access Gavi prices for vaccines. Given the country's limited resources for health, it is critical to assess potential new vaccine programs. This evaluation estimates the impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget implications associated with a nationwide rotavirus vaccine introduction targeting infants as part of the national immunization program in Mongolia, in order to inform decision-making around introduction.

METHODS

The analysis examines the use of the two-dose vaccine ROTARIX®, and three-dose vaccines ROTAVAC® and RotaTeq® compared to no vaccination from the government and the societal perspective. We use a modelling approach informed by local data and published literature to analyze the impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination over a ten-year time period starting in 2019, using a 3% discount rate. Our main outcome measure is the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) expressed as US dollar per DALY averted. We assessed uncertainty around a series of parameters through univariate sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Rotavirus vaccination in Mongolia could avert more than 95,000 rotavirus cases and 271 deaths, over 10 years. Averted visits and hospitalizations represent US$2.4 million in health care costs saved by the government. The vaccination program cost ranges from $6 to $11 million depending on vaccine choice. From the governmental perspective, ICER ranged from $412 to $1050 and from $77 to $715 when considering the societal perspective. Sensitivity analysis highlights vaccine price as the main driver of uncertainty.

CONCLUSION

Introduction of rotavirus vaccination is likely to be highly cost-effective in Mongolia, with ICERs estimated at only a fraction of Mongolia's per capita GDP. From an economic standpoint, ROTAVAC® is the least costly and most cost-effective product choice.

Re-evaluating the cost and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh, Ghana, and Malawi: A comparison of three rotavirus vaccines

Introduction

Diarrhea is a leading cause of mortality worldwide and rotavirus accounts for many of these deaths. As of August 2018, 96 countries have introduced rotavirus vaccines into their immunization programs. Two rotavirus vaccines, Rotarix® and RotaTeq®, have been WHO-prequalified since 2009, with Rotarix® being the preferred product of most Gavi-supported countries. ROTAVAC® and ROTASIIL® have both been prequalified recently.

Materials and methods

We reevaluated the costs and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh, Ghana, and Malawi and compared Rotarix®, ROTAVAC®, and ROTASIIL® in each country. For consistency with previously published analyses in these countries, we used the same Excel-based cohort model and much of the same data as the original analyses. We varied the expected price (with and without Gavi subsidy), wastage, and incremental health system costs associated with each vaccine. We assumed the same efficacy and waning assumptions following administration of two or three doses for the respective product.

Results

The discounted cost per DALY averted compared to no vaccination ranged from 0.3 to 1.3 times GNI per capita for each vaccine. With the Gavi subsidy, the average cost-effectiveness ratios were below 0.3 times GNI per capita in all three countries. Though critical empirical cost data are not yet available, Rotarix® is the least costly and most cost-effective product in the countries examined in this modelling study. However, small decreases in the incremental health system cost for other products could result in cost and cost-effectiveness outcomes that match or surpass those of Rotarix®.

Conclusion

Countries may wish to consider new rotavirus vaccines entering the market. Countries should carefully examine multiple product attributes including price and the incremental health system costs associated with each vaccine. These costs will vary by country and may be a defining factor in determining the least costly and most cost-effective product for the population.

The impact and cost-effectiveness of controlling cholera through the use of oral cholera vaccines in urban Bangladesh: A disease modeling and economic analysis

BACKGROUND

Cholera remains an important public health problem in major cities in Bangladesh, especially in slum areas. In response to growing interest among local policymakers to control this disease, this study estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of preventive cholera vaccination over a ten-year period in a high-risk slum population in Dhaka to inform decisions about the use of oral cholera vaccines as a key tool in reducing cholera risk in such populations.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Assuming use of a two-dose killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccine to be produced locally, the number of cholera cases and deaths averted was estimated for three target group options (1-4 year olds, 1-14 year olds, and all persons 1+), using cholera incidence data from Dhaka, estimates of vaccination coverage rates from the literature, and a dynamic model of cholera transmission based on data from Matlab, which incorporates herd effects. Local estimates of vaccination costs minus savings in treatment costs, were used to obtain incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for one- and ten-dose vial sizes. Vaccinating 1-14 year olds every three years, combined with annual routine vaccination of children, would be the most cost-effective strategy, reducing incidence in this population by 45% (assuming 10% annual migration), and costing was $823 (2015 USD) for single dose vials and $591 (2015 USD) for ten-dose vials per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. Vaccinating all ages one year and above would reduce incidence by >90%, but would be 50% less cost-effective ($894-1,234/DALY averted). Limiting vaccination to 1-4 year olds would be the least cost-effective strategy (preventing only 7% of cases and costing $1,276-$1,731/DALY averted), due to the limited herd effects of vaccinating this small population and the lower vaccine efficacy in this age group.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Providing cholera vaccine to slum populations in Dhaka through periodic vaccination campaigns would significantly reduce cholera incidence and inequities, and be especially cost-effective if all 1-14 year olds are targeted.

Accounting for equity considerations in cost-effectiveness analysis: a systematic review of rotavirus vaccine in low- and middle-income countries

Background

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is frequently used as an input for guiding priority setting in health. However, CEA seldom incorporates information about trade-offs between total health gains and equity impacts of interventions. This study investigates to what extent equity considerations have been taken into account in CEA in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), using rotavirus vaccination as a case study.

Methods

Specific equity-related indicators for vaccination were first mapped to the Guidance on Priority Setting in Health Care (GPS-Health) checklist criteria. Economic evaluations of rotavirus vaccine in LMICs identified via a systematic review of the literature were assessed to explore the extent to which equity was considered in the research objectives and analysis, and whether it was reflected in the evaluation results.

Results

The mapping process resulted in 18 unique indicators. Under the 'disease and intervention' criteria, severity of illness was incorporated in 75% of the articles, age distribution of the disease in 70%, and presence of comorbidities in 5%. For the 'social groups' criteria, relative coverage reflecting wealth-based coverage inequality was taken into account in 30% of the articles, geographic location in 27%, household income level in 8%, and sex at birth in 5%. For the criteria of 'protection against the financial and social effects of ill health', age weighting was incorporated in 43% of the articles, societal perspective in 58%, caregiver's loss of productivity in 45%, and financial risk protection in 5%. Overall, some articles incorporated the indicators in their model inputs (20%) while the majority (80%) presented results (costs, health outcomes, or incremental cost-effectiveness ratios) differentiated according to the indicators. Critically, less than a fifth (17%) of articles incorporating indicators did so due to an explicit study objective related to capturing equity considerations. Most indicators were increasingly incorporated over time, with a notable exception of age-weighting of DALYs.

Conclusion

Integrating equity criteria in CEA can help policy-makers better understand the distributional impact of health interventions. This study illustrates how equity considerations are currently being incorporated within CEA of rotavirus vaccination and highlights the components of equity that have been used in studies in LMICs. Areas for further improvement are identified.

Poverty reduction and equity benefits of introducing or scaling up measles, rotavirus and pneumococcal vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

Introduction

Beyond their impact on health, vaccines can lead to large economic benefits. While most economic evaluations of vaccines have focused on the health impact of vaccines at a national scale, it is critical to understand how their impact is distributed along population subgroups.

Methods

We build a financial risk protection model to evaluate the impact of immunisation against measles, severe pneumococcal disease and severe rotavirus for birth cohorts vaccinated over 2016-2030 for three scenarios in 41 Gavi-eligible countries: no immunisation, current immunisation coverage forecasts and the current immunisation coverage enhanced with funding support. We distribute modelled disease cases per socioeconomic group and derive the number of cases of: (1) catastrophic health costs (CHCs) and (2) medical impoverishment.

Results

In the absence of any vaccine coverage, the number of CHC cases attributable to measles, severe pneumococcal disease and severe rotavirus would be approximately 18.9 million, 6.6 million and 2.2 million, respectively. Expanding vaccine coverage would reduce this number by up to 90%, 30% and 40% in each case. More importantly, we find a higher share of CHC incidence among the poorest quintiles who consequently benefit more from vaccine expansion.

Conclusion

Our findings contribute to the understanding of how vaccines can have a broad economic impact. In particular, we find that immunisation programmes can reduce the proportion of households facing catastrophic payments from out-of-pocket health expenses, mainly in lower socioeconomic groups. Thus, vaccines could have an important role in poverty reduction.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Pneumococcal and Influenza Vaccines Administered to Children Less Than 5 Years of Age in a Low-Income District of Bogota, Colombia

BACKGROUND

The Colombian health authorities introduced the pneumococcal conjugated vaccine and the seasonal influenza vaccine into the national immunization schedule for children in 2009 and 2007, respectively. Despite this, the health authorities continue to be concerned about the high economic and disease burden among children from low-income households caused by these vaccine-preventable diseases.

OBJECTIVES

1) To evaluate the potential health outcomes of four vaccination strategies for subsidized children younger than 5 years in a low-income district in Colombia from a public, direct medical health care perspective. 2) To perform univariate, multivariate, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to evaluate the robustness of these results.

METHODS

We built a Markov deterministic cohort model to evaluate five consecutive cohorts across four alternative situations: 1) no vaccination; 2) vaccination with the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10 vaccine); 3) vaccination with the trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) annually; and 4) combined vaccination with PCV10 vaccine and TIV.

RESULTS

The introduction of PCV10 vaccine and TIV and their combined use in particular would be highly cost-effective in comparison to no vaccination. For the combined vaccination with PCV10 vaccine and TIV, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio would be $1,280 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, the total incremental cost of the vaccination program would be $776,800, and it would avert four deaths and 332 DALYs for the five cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The introduction of PCV10 vaccine and TIV would be highly cost-effective from a public, direct medical health care perspective. Despite these results, we have not observed decreases in severity or hospitalizations. Our findings highlight the need for further studies of the immunization campaign indicators and socioeconomic indicators for this low-income community.

Impact of rotavirus vaccines in low and middle-income countries

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Rotavirus vaccines are playing a pivotal role in improving lives of infants and young children in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Many of these countries have adopted the vaccine into their routine immunization, whereas others are considering introduction. This article provides an update on the impact of rotavirus vaccines in LMICs on morbidity and mortality in children aged less than 5 years, and their cost-effectiveness.

RECENT FINDINGS

The WHO, in 2013, updated its recommendation to prioritize introduction of rotavirus vaccines in the routine immunization schedule, without age restrictions. Despite the decreased efficacy of the vaccines in LMICs, data from Sub-Saharan Africa have demonstrated a decrease in rotavirus-related morbidity, with some sites reporting an indirect protective effect on children age ineligible to receive the vaccine. Even with improvements in sanitation, nutritional status in children, and other health-related indices in LMICs, the use of rotavirus vaccines will play an important role in preventing rotavirus-related gastroenteritis. Economic models predict a reduction in economic burden because of rotavirus-related health costs, making vaccine introduction cost-effective in resource-constrained settings.

SUMMARY

Increasing evidence from impact studies shows the significant impact of rotavirus vaccination on hospitalizations and economic burden because of rotavirus gastroenteritis in LMICs. Universal rotavirus vaccination is recommended, and introductions should be monitored by robust surveillance systems to measure effectiveness and impact.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of introducing universal childhood rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh

Diarrhea is one of the world's leading killers of children, and globally, rotavirus is the most common cause of severe diarrhea among under 5 children. In Bangladesh, rotavirus kills nearly 6,000 under 5 children in each year. To reduce the burden of childhood rotavirus diseases, universal rotavirus vaccination is recommended by World Health Organization. The objective of this study is to assess the cost-effectiveness of introducing universal childhood rotavirus vaccination with the newly developed ROTAVAC vaccine in national Expanded Programme of Immunization in Bangladesh. We developed a decision model to examine the potential impact of vaccination in Bangladesh and to examine the effect if the vaccination is applied in the nationwide immunization program schedule. Introduction of childhood universal rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh scenario appears as highly cost-effective and would offer substantial future benefits for the young population if vaccinated today. The cost per DALY averted of introducing the rotavirus vaccine compared with status quo is approximately US$ 740.27 and US$ 728.67 per DALY averted from the health system and societal perspective respectively which is "very cost-effective" using GDP threshold level according to World Health Organization definition. The results of this analysis seek to contribute to an evidence-based recommendation about the introduction of universal rotavirus vaccination in national Expanded Programme of Immunization (EPI) in Bangladesh.

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Ghana: Examining impacts from 2012 to 2031

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Ghana is currently transitioning away from Gavi support.

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Thus, cost-effectiveness is crucial for improving health system efficiency.

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Rotavirus vaccination brings health and economic benefits to Ghana.

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Rotavirus vaccination is highly cost-effective in Ghana, even Gavi transition.

Background

Diarrhea causes about 10% of all deaths in children under five years globally, with rotavirus causing about 40% of all diarrhea deaths. Ghana introduced rotavirus vaccination as part of routine immunization in 2012 and it has been shown to be effective in reducing disease burden in children under five years. Ghana’s transition from low to lower-middle income status in 2010 implies fewer resources from Gavi as well as other major global financing mechanisms. Ghana will soon bear the full cost of vaccines. The aim of this study was to estimate the health impact, costs and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Ghana from introduction and beyond the Gavi transition.

Methods

The TRIVAC model is used to estimate costs and effects of rotavirus vaccination from 2012 through 2031. Model inputs include demographics, disease burden, health system structure, health care utilization and costs as well as vaccine cost, coverage, and efficacy. Model inputs came from local data, the international literature and expert consultation. Costs were examined from the health system and societal perspectives.

Results

The results show that continued rotavirus vaccination could avert more than 2.2 million cases and 8900 deaths while saving US$6 to US$9 million in costs over a 20-year period. The net cost of vaccination program is approximately US$60 million over the same period. The societal cost per DALY averted is US$238 to US$332 with cost per case averted ranging from US$27 to US$38. The cost per death averted is approximately US$7000.

Conclusion

The analysis shows that continued rotavirus vaccination will be highly cost-effective, even for the period during which Ghana will assume responsibility for purchasing vaccines after transition from Gavi support.

All things to all people: trade-offs in pursuit of an ideal modeling tool for maternal and child health

BACKGROUND

Modeling tools have potential to aid decision making for program planning and evaluation at all levels, but are still largely the domain of technical experts, consultants, and global-level staff. One model that can improve decision making for maternal and child health is the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). We examined respondents' perceptions of LiST's strengths and weaknesses, to identify ways in which LiST - and similar modeling tools - can adapt to be more accessible and helpful to policy makers.

METHODS

We interviewed 21 purposefully sampled LiST users. First, we identified the characteristics that respondents explicitly stated, or implicitly implied, were important in a modeling tool, and then used these results to create a framework for reviewing a modeling tool. Second, we used this framework to categorize the strengths and weaknesses of LiST that respondents articulated.

RESULTS

Two overarching qualities were important to respondents: usability and accuracy. For some users, LiST already meets these criteria: it allows for customized input parameters to increase specificity; the interface is intuitive; the assumptions and calculations are scientifically sound; and the standard metric of "additional lives saved" is understood and comparable across settings. Other respondents had different views, although their complaints were typically not that the tool is unusable or inaccurate, but that aspects of the tool could be better explained or easier to understand.

CONCLUSION

Government and agency staff at all levels should be empowered to use the data available to them, including the use of models to make full use of these data. For this, we need tools that meet a threshold of both accuracy, so results clarify rather than mislead, and usability, so tools can be used readily and widely, not just by select experts. With these ideals in mind, there are ways in which LiST might continue to be improved or adapted to further advance its uptake and impact.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh

INTRODUCTION

Diarrheal disease is a leading cause of child mortality globally, and rotavirus is responsible for more than a third of those deaths. Despite substantial decreases, the number of rotavirus deaths in children under five was 215,000 per year in 2013. Of these deaths, approximately 41% occurred in Asia and 3% of those in Bangladesh. While Bangladesh has yet to introduce rotavirus vaccination, the country applied for Gavi support and plans to introduce it in 2018. This analysis evaluates the impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh and provides estimates of the costs of the vaccination program to help inform decision-makers and international partners.

METHODS

This analysis used Pan American Health Organization's TRIVAC model (version 2.0) to examine nationwide introduction of two-dose rotavirus vaccination in 2017, compared to no vaccination. Three mortality scenarios (low, high, and midpoint) were assessed. Benefits and costs were examined from the societal perspective over ten successive birth cohorts with a 3% discount rate. Model inputs were locally acquired and complemented by internationally validated estimates.

RESULTS

Over ten years, rotavirus vaccination would prevent 4000 deaths, nearly 500,000 hospitalizations and 3 million outpatient visits in the base scenario. With a Gavi subsidy, cost/disability adjusted life year (DALY) ratios ranged from $58/DALY to $142/DALY averted. Without a Gavi subsidy and a vaccine price of $2.19 per dose, cost/DALY ratios ranged from $615/DALY to $1514/DALY averted.

CONCLUSION

The discounted cost per DALY averted was less than the GDP per capita for nearly all scenarios considered, indicating that a routine rotavirus vaccination program is highly likely to be cost-effective. Even in a low mortality setting with no Gavi subsidy, rotavirus vaccination would be cost-effective. These estimates exclude the herd immunity benefits of vaccination, so represent a conservative estimate of the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh.

From individual to herd protection with pneumococcal vaccines: the contribution of the Cuban pneumococcal conjugate vaccine implementation strategy

A new pneumococcal conjugate vaccine is currently undergoing advanced clinical evaluation prior to its planned introduction in Cuba. The implementation of the pneumococcal vaccination strategy has been designed with consideration of the need to maximize both its direct and indirect effects. A novel approach is suggested, which addresses preschool children as the first-line target group to generate herd immunity in infants and to have an impact on transmission at the community level. The clinical evaluation pipeline is described herein, including evaluations of effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and impact. The scientific contribution of the Cuban strategy could support a paradigm shift from individual protection to a population effect based on a rigorous body of scientific evidence.

Operations research in global health: a scoping review with a focus on the themes of health equity and impact

BACKGROUND

Operations research (OR) is a discipline that uses advanced analytical methods (e.g. simulation, optimisation, decision analysis) to better understand complex systems and aid in decision-making. Herein, we present a scoping review of the use of OR to analyse issues in global health, with an emphasis on health equity and research impact. A systematic search of five databases was designed to identify relevant published literature. A global overview of 1099 studies highlights the geographic distribution of OR and common OR methods used. From this collection of literature, a narrative description of the use of OR across four main application areas of global health - health systems and operations, clinical medicine, public health and health innovation - is also presented. The theme of health equity is then explored in detail through a subset of 44 studies. Health equity is a critical element of global health that cuts across all four application areas, and is an issue particularly amenable to analysis through OR. Finally, we present seven select cases of OR analyses that have been implemented or have influenced decision-making in global health policy or practice. Based on these cases, we identify three key drivers for success in bridging the gap between OR and global health policy, namely international collaboration with stakeholders, use of contextually appropriate data, and varied communication outlets for research findings. Such cases, however, represent a very small proportion of the literature found.

CONCLUSION

Poor availability of representative and quality data, and a lack of collaboration between those who develop OR models and stakeholders in the contexts where OR analyses are intended to serve, were found to be common challenges for effective OR modelling in global health.

Cost Effectiveness of Pneumococcal Vaccination in Children in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Although pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been available for prevention of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae (S. pneumoniae) for over a decade, their adoption into national immunization programmes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is still limited. Economic evaluations (EEs) play a crucial role in support of evidence-informed decisions.

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review aims to provide a critical summary of EEs of PCVs and identify key drivers of EE findings in LMICs.

METHODS

We searched Scopus, ISI Web of Science, PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Central from their inception to 30 September 2015 and limited the search to LMICs. The search was undertaken using the search strings 'pneumococc* AND conjugat* AND (vaccin* OR immun*)' AND 'economic OR cost-effectiveness OR cost-benefit OR cost-utility OR cost-effectiveness OR cost-benefit OR cost-utility' in the abstract, title or keyword fields. To be included, each study had to be a full EE of a PCV and conducted for an LMIC. Studies were extracted and reviewed by two authors. The review involved standard extraction of the study overview or the characteristics of the study, key drivers or parameters of the EE, assumptions behind the analyses and major areas of uncertainty.

RESULTS

Out of 134 records identified, 22 articles were included. Seven studies used a Markov model for analysis, while 15 studies used a decision-tree analytic model. Eighteen studies performed a cost-utility analysis (CUA), with disability-adjusted life-years, quality-adjusted life-years or life-years gained as a measure of health outcome, while four studies focused only on cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Both CEA and CUA findings were provided by eight studies. Herd effects and serotype replacement were considered in 10 and 13 studies, respectively. The current evidence shows that both the 10-valent and 13-valent PCVs are probably cost effective in comparison with the 7-valent PCV or no vaccination. The most influential parameters were vaccine efficacy and coverage (in 16 of 22 studies), vaccine price (in 13 of 22 studies), disease incidence (in 11 of 22 studies), mortality from IPD and pneumonia (in 8 of 22 studies) and herd effects (in 4 of 22 studies). The findings were found to be supportive of the products owned by the manufacturers.

CONCLUSION

Our review demonstrated that an infant PCV programme was a cost-effective intervention in most LMICs (in 20 of 22 studies included). The results were sensitive to vaccine efficacy, price, burden of disease and sponsorship. Decision makers should consider EE findings and affordability before adoption of PCVs.

Cost-effectiveness and Health Benefits of Pediatric 23-valent Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine, 7-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine and Forecasting 13-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in China

BACKGROUND

Each year in China, approximately 700,000 children under 5 years old are diagnosed with pneumonia, and 30,000 die of the disease. Although 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7) and 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV-23) are available in China, the costs are borne by the consumer, resulting in low coverage for PCV-7. We aimed to conduct a simulation study to assess the cost-effectiveness and health benefits of PCV-7, 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-13) and PPV-23 to prevent childhood pneumonia and other vaccine-preventive diseases in China.

METHODS

An economic evaluation was performed using a Markov simulation model. Parameters including demographic, epidemiological data, costs and efficacy of vaccines were obtained from previous studies. A hypothetical cohort of 100,000 newborns (focusing on pneumococcal diseases ≤7 years old) was followed up until death or 100 years of age. The model incorporated the impact of vaccination on reduction of incidence of pneumococcal diseases and mortality of children ≤7 years. Outcomes are presented in terms of disease cases averted, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

RESULTS

Under baseline assumptions, PPV-23 is currently the only cost-effective option, whereas PCV-13 showed the greatest impact on pneumococcal disease burden, reducing invasive pneumococcal diseases by 31.3%, pneumonia by 15.3% and gaining 73.8 QALYs (10,000 individuals at discount rate of 3%). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of PCV-13 and PCV-7 are US$29,460/QALY and US$104,094/QALY, respectively, showing no cost-effectiveness based on the World Health Organization recommended willingness-to-pay threshold. On the other hand, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of PCVs were most sensitive to vaccination costs; if it reduces 4.7% and 32.2% for PCV-7 and PCV-13, respectively, the vaccination will be cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

To scale up current vaccination strategies and achieve potential health benefits, the replacement of PCV-7 with PCV-13 should be considered. As well, PCV's costs need to be reduced by increasing public subsidies and providing financial support to poor families.

Cost-Effectiveness of Monovalent Rotavirus Vaccination of Infants in Malawi: A Postintroduction Analysis Using Individual Patient-Level Costing Data

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus vaccination reduces childhood hospitalization in Africa, but cost-effectiveness has not been determined using real-world effectiveness and costing data. We sought to determine monovalent rotavirus vaccine cost-effectiveness in Malawi, one of Africa's poorest countries and the first Gavi-eligible country to report disease reduction following introduction in 2012.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of children with acute gastroenteritis at a rural primary health center, a rural first referral-level hospital and an urban regional referral hospital in Malawi. For each participant we itemized household costs of illness and direct medical expenditures incurred. We also collected Ministry of Health vaccine implementation costs. Using a standard tool (TRIVAC), we derived cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

Between 1 January 2013 and 21 November 2014, we recruited 530 children aged <5 years with gastroenteritis. Costs did not differ by rotavirus test result, but were significantly higher for admitted children and those with increased severity on Vesikari scale. Adding rotavirus vaccine to the national schedule costs Malawi $0.42 per dose in system costs. Vaccine copayment is an additional $0.20. Over 20 years, the vaccine program will avert 1 026 000 cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis, 78 000 inpatient admissions, 4300 deaths, and 136 000 disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs). For this year's birth cohort, it will avert 54 000 cases of rotavirus and 281 deaths in children aged <5 years. The program will cost $10.5 million and save $8.0 million in averted healthcare costs. Societal cost per DALY averted was $10, and the cost per rotavirus case averted was $1.

CONCLUSIONS

Gastroenteritis causes substantial economic burden to Malawi. The rotavirus vaccine program is highly cost-effective. Together with the demonstrated impact of rotavirus vaccine in reducing population hospitalization burden, its cost-effectiveness makes a strong argument for widespread utilization in other low-income, high-burden settings.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the introduction of rotavirus vaccine in Iran

BACKGROUND

Although the mortality from diarrheal diseases has been decreasing dramatically in Iran, it still represents an important proportion of disease burden in children <5 years old. Rotavirus vaccines are among the most effective strategies against diarrheal diseases in specific epidemiological conditions. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the introduction of rotavirus vaccine (3 doses of pentavalent RotaTeq (RV5)) in Iran, from the viewpoints of Iran's health system and society.

METHODS

The TRIVAC decision support model was used to calculate total incremental costs, life years (LYs) gained, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted due to the vaccination program. Necessary input data were collected from the most valid accessible sources as well as a systematic review and meta-analysis on epidemiological studies. We used WHO guidelines to estimate vaccination cost. An annual discount rate of 3% was considered for both health gain and costs. A deterministic sensitivity analysis was performed for testing the robustness of the models results.

RESULTS

Our results indicated that total DALYs potentially lost due to rotavirus diarrhea within 10 years would be 138,161, of which 76,591 could be prevented by rotavirus vaccine. The total vaccination cost for 10 cohorts was estimated to be US$ 499.91 million. Also, US$ 470.61 million would be saved because of preventing outpatient visits and inpatient admissions (cost-saving from the society perspective). We estimated a cost per DALY averted of US$ 2868 for RV5 vaccination, which corresponds to a highly cost-effective strategy from the government perspective. In the sensitivity analysis, all scenarios tested were still cost-saving or highly cost-effective from the society perspective, except in the least favorable scenario and low vaccine efficacy and disease incidence scenario.

CONCLUSION

Based on the findings, introduction of rotavirus vaccine is a highly cost-effective strategy from the government perspective. Introducing the vaccine to the national immunization program is an efficient use of available funds to reduce child mortality and morbidity in Iran.

Evidence-based decision-making for vaccine introductions: Overview of the ProVac International Working Group's experience

INTRODUCTION

Pan American Health Organization's (PAHO) ProVac Initiative aims to strengthen countries' technical capacity to make evidence-based immunization policy. With financial support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, PAHO established the ProVac International Working Group (IWG), a platform created for two years to transfer the ProVac Initiative's tools and methods to support decisions in non-PAHO regions.

METHODS

In 2011, WHO Regional Offices and partner agencies established the IWG to transfer the ProVac framework for new vaccine decision support, including tools and trainings to other regions of the world. During the two year period, PAHO served as the coordinating secretariat and partner agencies played implementing or advisory roles.

RESULTS

Fifty nine national professionals from 17 countries received training on the use of economic evaluations to aid vaccine policy making through regional workshops. The IWG provided direct technical support to nine countries to develop cost-effectiveness analyses to inform decisions. All nine countries introduced the new vaccine evaluated or their NITAGs have made a recommendation to the Ministry of Health to introduce the new vaccine.

DISCUSSION

Developing countries around the world are increasingly interested in weighing the potential health impact due to new vaccine introduction against the investments required. During the two years, the ProVac approach proved valuable and timely to aid the national decision making processes, even despite the different challenges and idiosyncrasies encountered in each region. The results of this work suggest that: (1) there is great need and demand for technical support and for capacity building around economic evaluations; and (2) the ProVac method of supporting country-owned analyses is as effective in other regions as it has been in the PAHO region.

CONCLUSION

Decision support for new vaccine introduction in low- and middle-income countries is critical to guiding the efficient use of resources and prioritizing high impact vaccination programs.

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Kenya and Uganda

INTRODUCTION

Rotavirus vaccines have the potential to prevent a substantial amount of life-threatening gastroenteritis in young African children. This paper presents the results of prospective cost-effectiveness analyses for rotavirus vaccine introduction for Kenya and Uganda.

METHODOLOGY

In each country, a national consultant worked with a national technical working group to identify appropriate data and validate study results. Secondary data on demographics, disease burden, health utilization, and costs were used to populate the TRIVAC cost-effectiveness model. The baseline analysis assumed an initial vaccine price of $0.20 per dose, corresponding to Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance stipulated copay for low-income countries. The incremental cost-effectiveness of a 2-dose rotavirus vaccination schedule was evaluated for 20 successive birth cohorts from the government perspective in both countries, and from the societal perspective in Uganda.

RESULTS

Between 2014 and 2033, rotavirus vaccination can avert approximately 60,935 and 216,454 undiscounted deaths and hospital admissions respectively in children under 5 years in Kenya. In Uganda, the respective number of undiscounted deaths and hospital admission averted is 70,236 and 329,779 between 2016 and 2035. Over the 20-year period, the discounted vaccine program costs are around US$ 80 million in Kenya and US$ 60 million in Uganda. Discounted government health service costs avoided are US$ 30 million in Kenya and US$ 10 million in Uganda (or US$ 18 million including household costs). The cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted from a government perspective is US$ 38 in Kenya and US$ 34 in Uganda (US$ 29 from a societal perspective).

CONCLUSIONS

Rotavirus vaccine introduction is highly cost-effective in both countries in a range of plausible 'what-if' scenarios. The involvement of national experts improves the quality of data used, is likely to increase acceptability of the results in decision-making, and can contribute to strengthened national capacity to undertake economic evaluations.

Strengthening national decision-making on immunization by building capacity for economic evaluation: Implementing ProVac in Europe

BACKGROUND

For many years, low- and middle-income countries have made efforts to strengthen national decision-making on immunization. The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) ProVac Initiative was established to help expedite the use of evidence-based decision-making around new vaccine introduction. This initiative provides training in user-friendly cost-effectiveness models and supports the development of country-led economic evaluations. Due to the success of the ProVac Initiative in the Americas, and following requests from countries from outside the Americas, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation funded a two-year pilot effort to expand the initiative to other world regions. Called the ProVac International Working Group (IWG), this endeavor took place in 2012 and 2013. It was coordinated by PAHO and carried out in collaboration with several international partners, including the Agence de Médecine Préventive (AMP), London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), Program for Appropriate Technology in Health, Sabin Vaccine Institute, United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the World Health Organization (WHO). In the WHO European Region, technical support was provided by AMP, in close collaboration with the WHO Regional Office for Europe and other ProVac IWG partners.

METHODS

In 2012, AMP, the WHO Regional Office for Europe, and other partners held a training workshop in Dubrovnik, Croatia, for 31 participants from four countries of the WHO European Region. The aim was to train health professionals in standard methods of economic evaluation and to assess regional demand for economic studies to support decision-making on immunization. AMP and the other organizations also supported four national cost-effectiveness studies in the WHO European Region. The assistance included country visits and support over a period of six months, the establishment of multidisciplinary teams of experts, ongoing training on the TRIVAC decision-support model for new-vaccine economic analysis, review of local evidence, recommending key data inputs, and support in presenting results to national decision makers.

RESULTS

National cost-effectiveness studies were conducted in four countries: Albania (rotavirus vaccine [RV]), Azerbaijan (pneumococcal conjugate vaccine [PCV]), Croatia (PCV), and Georgia (PCV). All four countries improved their estimates of the burden of disease preventable by the new vaccines. National advisory bodies and ministries of health obtained economic evidence that helped Albania and Croatia to make decisions on introducing the new vaccines. Azerbaijan and Georgia used economic evidence to confirm previously made preliminary decisions to introduce PCV and make corresponding financial commitments. The study helped Albania to obtain access to affordable prices for rotavirus vaccines through participation in the UNICEF procurement mechanism for middle-income countries. Croatia was able to define the PCV price that would make its introduction cost-effective, and can use this figure as a basis for price negotiations.

DISCUSSION

Despite some challenges due to competing national priorities, tight budgets for immunization, and lack of available national data, the ProVac IWG helped to build capacity of national health professionals, support decision-making for the introduction of new vaccines, and promote utilization of economic evidence for making decisions on immunization. This type of strong collaboration among international partners and countries should be scaled up, given that many other countries in the WHO European Region have expressed interest in receiving assistance from the ProVac IWG.

ProVac Global Initiative: a vision shaped by ten years of supporting evidence-based policy decisions

INTRODUCTION

The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) created the ProVac Initiative in 2004 with the goal of strengthening national technical capacity to make evidence-based decisions on new vaccine introduction, focusing on economic evaluations. In view of the 10th anniversary of the ProVac Initiative, this article describes its progress and reflects on lessons learned to guide the next phase.

METHODS

We quantified the output of the Initiative's capacity-building efforts and critically assess its progress toward achieving the milestones originally proposed in 2004. Additionally, we reviewed how country studies supported by ProVac have directly informed and strengthened the deliberations around new vaccine introduction.

RESULTS

Since 2004, ProVac has conducted four regional workshops and supported 24 health economic analyses in 15 Latin American and Caribbean countries. Five Regional Centers of Excellence were funded, resulting in six operational research projects and nine publications. Twenty four decisions on new vaccine introductions were supported with ProVac studies. Enduring products include the TRIVAC and CERVIVAC cost-effectiveness models, the COSTVAC program costing model, methodological guides, workshop training materials and the OLIVES on-line data repository. Ten NITAGs were strengthened through ProVac activities.

DISCUSSION

The evidence accumulated suggests that initiatives with emphasis on sustainable training and direct support for countries to generate evidence themselves, can help accelerate the introduction of the most valuable new vaccines. International and Regional Networks of Collaborators are necessary to provide technical support and tools to national teams conducting analyses. Timeliness, integration, quality and country ownership of the process are four necessary guiding principles for national economic evaluations to have an impact on policymaking. It would be an asset to have a model that offers different levels of complexity to choose from depending on the vaccine being evaluated, the availability of data, and the time frame of the decision.

CONCLUSION

Decision support for new vaccine introduction in low- and middle-income countries is critical to maximizing the efficiency and impact of vaccination programs. Global technical cooperation will be required. In the future, PAHO and WHO have an opportunity to expand the reach of the ProVac philosophy, models, and methods to additional regions and countries requiring real-time support. The ProVac Global Initiative is proposed as an effective mechanism to do so.

Estimated impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Senegal: A country-led analysis

INTRODUCTION

Rotavirus is the leading cause of acute severe diarrhea among children under 5 globally and one of the leading causes of death attributable to diarrhea. Among African children hospitalized with diarrhea, 38% of the cases are due to rotavirus. In Senegal, rotavirus deaths are estimated to represent 5.4% of all deaths among children under 5. Along with the substantial disease burden, there is a growing awareness of the economic burden created by diarrheal disease. This analysis aims to provide policymakers with more consistent and reliable economic evidence to support the decision-making process about the introduction and maintenance of a rotavirus vaccine program.

METHODS

The study was conducted using the processes and tools first established by the Pan American Health Organization's ProVac Initiative in the Latin American region. TRIVAC version 2.0, an Excel-based model, was used to perform the analysis. The costs and health outcomes were calculated for 20 successive birth cohorts (2014-2033). Model inputs were gathered from local, national, and international sources with the guidance of a Senegalese group of experts including local pediatricians, personnel from the Ministry of Health and the World Health Organization, as well as disease-surveillance and laboratory specialists.

RESULTS

The cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, discounted at 3%, is US$ 92 from the health care provider perspective and US$ 73 from the societal perspective. For the 20 cohorts, the vaccine is projected to prevent more than 2 million cases of rotavirus and to avert more than 8500 deaths. The proportion of rotavirus deaths averted is estimated to be 42%. For 20 cohorts, the discounted net costs of the program were estimated to be US$ 17.6 million from the healthcare provider perspective and US$ 13.8 million from the societal perspective.

CONCLUSION

From both perspectives, introducing the rotavirus vaccine is highly cost-effective compared to no vaccination. The results are consistent with those found in many African countries. The ProVac process and tools contributed to a collaborative, country-led process in Senegal that provides a platform for gathering and reporting evidence for vaccine decision-making.

Cost-effectiveness of Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine in low- and middle-income countries: regional analysis and assessment of major determinants

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) conjugate vaccine in low- and middle-income countries and identify the model variables, which are most important for the result.

STUDY DESIGN

A static decision tree model was developed to predict incremental costs and health impacts. Estimates were generated for 4 country groups: countries eligible for funding by the GAVI Alliance in Africa and Asia, lower middle-income countries, and upper middle-income countries. Values, including disease incidence, case fatality rates, and treatment costs, were based on international country estimates and the scientific literature.

RESULTS

From the societal perspective, it is estimated that the probability of Hib conjugate vaccine cost saving is 34%-53% in Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization eligible African and Asian countries, respectively. In middle-income countries, costs per discounted disability adjusted life year averted are between US$37 and US$733. Variation in vaccine prices and risks of meningitis sequelae and mortality explain most of the difference in results. For all country groups, disease incidence cause the largest part of the uncertainty in the result.

CONCLUSIONS

Hib conjugate vaccine is cost saving or highly cost-effective in low- and middle-income settings. This conclusion is especially influenced by the recent decline in Hib conjugate vaccine prices and new data revealing the high costs of lost productivity associated with meningitis sequelae.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccination in India

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of nationwide Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccination in India.

STUDY DESIGN

A decision support model was used, bringing together estimates of demography, epidemiology, Hib vaccine effectiveness, Hib vaccine costs, and health care costs. Scenarios favorable and unfavorable to the vaccine were evaluated. State-level analyses indicate where the vaccine might have the greatest impact and value.

RESULTS

Between 2012 and 2031, Hib conjugate vaccination is estimated to prevent over 200 000 child deaths (∼1% of deaths in children <5 years of age) in India at an incremental cost of US$127 million per year. From a government perspective, state-level cost-effectiveness ranged from US$192 to US$1033 per discounted disability adjusted life years averted. With the inclusion of household health care costs, cost-effectiveness ranged from US$155-US$939 per discounted disability adjusted life year averted. These values are below the World Health Organization thresholds for cost effectiveness of public health interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

Hib conjugate vaccination is a cost-effective intervention in all States of India. This conclusion does not alter with plausible changes in key parameters. Although investment in Hib conjugate vaccination would significantly increase the cost of the Universal Immunization Program, about 15% of the incremental cost would be offset by health care cost savings. Efforts should be made to expedite the nationwide introduction of Hib conjugate vaccination in India.