Evaluation of serogroup C and ACWY meningococcal vaccine programs: projected impact on disease burden according to a stochastic two-strain dynamic model

Impact on meningococcal disease of different vaccination strategies with 4CMenB and MenACWY-CRM197 in infants and adolescents in Argentina

BACKGROUND

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is a life-threatening disease, primarily affecting infants and children. Argentina introduced routine meningococcal vaccination in infants and adolescents in 2017, with MenACWY vaccination targeting serogroups A, C, W, and Y (current National Immunization Program [cNIP]). Serogroup B, more prevalent since 2015, became predominant in children. The dynamic trends of IMD epidemiology and availability of a four-component meningococcal B vaccine (4CMenB) call for a reassessment of the best schedule to optimize IMD prevention. The objective was to model the public health impact of routine 4CMenB and/or MenACWY in infants and adolescents, using different vaccination strategies compared with the cNIP in Argentina.

METHODS

A published dynamic transmission model adapted for Argentina evaluated six vaccination strategies versus the cNIP: infant 4CMenB alone (1), infant 4CMenB with adolescent MenACWY (2), adolescent MenACWY alone (3), infant 4CMenB & MenACWY (4), infant MenACWY alone (5), and infant 4CMenB & MenACWY with adolescent MenACWY (6).

RESULTS

Strategies including adolescent MenACWY with infant 4CMenB (or 4CMenB plus MenACWY) vaccination had the largest impact on increasing IMD prevention i.e., up to 23 % higher than the cNIP after 25 years. Strategies including 4CMenB (1, 2, 4, 6) had the largest reduction of serogroup B IMD (impact is seen among children 0-4 years old) i.e., a 39 % decrease within the first five years of introducing 4CMenB. Strategies including adolescent MenACWY (cNIP, 2, 3 and 6) had the largest reduction of serogroup ACWY IMD, with near elimination after 30 years (impact seen in all ages, due to herd protection).

CONCLUSIONS

Adding routine infant 4CMenB (either to the complete cNIP or instead of infant MenACWY) could further reduce IMD cases, sequelae, and deaths in Argentina. In addition, maintaining the adolescent MenACWY program, with its herd immunity benefits, could achieve near elimination of serogroup ACWY IMD over 30 years.

Modelling the Public Health Impact of MenACWY and MenC Adolescent Vaccination Strategies in Germany

INTRODUCTION

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) causes significant mortality and long-term sequelae. This study assesses the potential public health impact of adolescent vaccination strategies employing MenACWY and MenC vaccines in Germany, where the existing meningococcal immunisation programme predominantly involves MenC administration in toddlers.

METHODS

A dynamic transmission model was developed to simulate the carriage of five meningococcal serogroup compartments (AY/B/C/W/Other) from 2019 until 2060 within 1-year age groups from 0 to 99 years of age. IMD cases were estimated based on case-carrier ratios. The model considered vaccine effectiveness against carriage acquisition and IMD.

RESULTS

The model predicts that introducing MenACWY adolescent vaccination could lead to a considerable reduction in IMD incidence, with the potential to prevent up to 65 cases per year and a cumulative total of 1467 cases by 2060. This decrease, mainly driven by herd effects, would result in a reduction of IMD incidence across all age groups, regardless of vaccination age. Furthermore, implementing MenACWY vaccination in adolescents is projected to decrease annual MenACWY-related IMD mortality by up to 64%, equating to an overall prevention of 156 IMD deaths by 2060. These protective outcomes are expected to culminate in approximately 2250 life years gained (LYG) throughout the model's projected time horizon. In contrast, the adoption of MenC vaccination in adolescents is predicted to have minimal influence on both IMD incidence and mortality, as well as on LYG.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study demonstrate that implementing MenACWY vaccination for adolescents in Germany is likely to notably reduce IMD incidence and mortality across age groups. However, the introduction of MenC adolescent vaccination shows only limited impact. Considering the extensive healthcare resources typically required for IMD management, these findings suggest the potential for economic benefits associated with the adoption of MenACWY adolescent vaccination, warranting further cost-effectiveness analysis.

Assessing the Role of Infant and Toddler MenACWY Immunisation in the UK: Does the Adolescent MenACWY Programme Provide Sufficient Protection?

A combined Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib)/meningococcal serogroup C (MenC) vaccine will soon be unavailable in the UK immunisation schedule due to discontinuation by the manufacturer. An interim statement by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) advises stopping MenC immunisation at 12 months of age when this occurs. We undertook an analysis of the public health impact of various potential meningococcal vaccination strategies in the UK in the absence of the Hib/MenC vaccine. A static population-cohort model was developed evaluating the burden of IMD (using 2005-2015 epidemiological data) and related health outcomes (e.g., cases, cases with long-term sequelae, deaths), which allows for the comparison of any two meningococcal immunisation strategies. We compared potential strategies that included different combinations of infant and/or toddler MenACWY immunisations with the anticipated future situation in which a 12-month MenC vaccine is not used, but the MenACWY vaccine is routinely given in adolescents. The most effective strategy is combining MenACWY immunisation at 2, 4, and 12 months of age with the incumbent adolescent MenACWY immunisation programme, resulting in the prevention of an additional 269 IMD cases and 13 fatalities over the modelling period; of these cases, 87 would be associated with long-term sequelae. Among the different vaccination strategies, it was observed that those with multiple doses and earlier doses provided the greatest protection. Our study provides evidence suggesting that the removal of the MenC toddler immunisation from the UK schedule would potentially increase the risk of unnecessary IMD cases and have a detrimental public health impact if not replaced by an alternate infant and/or toddler programme. This analysis supports that infant and toddler MenACWY immunisation can provide maximal protection while complementing both infant/toddler MenB and adolescent MenACWY immunisation programmes in the UK.

Meningococcal Disease in Pediatric Age: A Focus on Epidemiology and Prevention

Meningococcal disease is caused by Neisseria meningitidis; 13 serogroups have been identified and differentiated from each other through their capsular polysaccharide. Serotypes A, B, C, W, X, and Y are responsible for nearly all infections worldwide. The most common clinical manifestations are meningitis and invasive meningococcal disease, both characterized by high mortality and long-term sequelae. The infection rate is higher in children younger than 1 year and in adolescents, who are frequently asymptomatic carriers. Vaccination is the most effective method of preventing infection and transmission. Currently, both monovalent meningococcal vaccines (against A, B, and C serotypes) and quadrivalent meningococcal vaccines (against serogroups ACYW) are available and recommended according to local epidemiology. The purpose of this article is to describe the meningococcal vaccines and to identify instruments that are useful for reducing transmission and implementing the vaccination coverage. This aim could be reached by switching from the monovalent to the quadrivalent vaccine in the first year of life, increasing vaccine promotion against ACYW serotypes among adolescents, and extending the free offer of the anti-meningococcal B vaccine to teens, co-administering it with others proposed in the same age group. Greater awareness of the severity of the disease and increased health education through web and social networks could represent the best strategies for promoting adhesion and active participation in the vaccination campaign. Finally, the development of a licensed universal meningococcal vaccine should be another important objective.

Modeling the public health impact of different meningococcal vaccination strategies with 4CMenB and MenACWY versus the current toddler MenACWY National Immunization Program in Chile

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is an uncommon yet unpredictable, severe, and life-threatening disease with the highest burden in young children. In Chile, most IMD is caused by meningococcal serogroup B (MenB) and W (MenW) infection. In response to a MenW outbreak in 2012, a toddler vaccination program was implemented using quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine against serogroups A, C, W and Y (MenACWY). The vaccine program, however, does not protect infants or other unvaccinated age groups and does not protect against MenB IMD. Since 2017, MenB IMD cases are becoming increasingly prevalent. Using a dynamic transmission model adapted for Chile, this analysis assessed the public health impact (reduction in IMD cases, long-term sequelae, deaths, and quality-adjusted life-years) of six alternative vaccination strategies using MenACWY and/or the four-component MenB (4CMenB) vaccine in infants, toddlers, and/or adolescents compared to the National Immunization Program (NIP) implemented in 2014. Strategies that added infant 4CMenB to MenACWY in toddlers or adolescents would prevent more IMD than the current NIP, observed within the first 5 years of the program. Replacing the NIP by an adolescent MenACWY strategy would prevent more IMD in the longer term, once herd immunity is established to protect unvaccinated infants or older age groups. The strategy that maximized reduction of IMD cases and associated sequelae in all age groups with immediate plus long-term benefits included infant 4CMenB and MenACWY in both toddlers and adolescents. This analysis can help policymakers determine the best strategy to control IMD in Chile and improve public health. A set of audio slides linked to this manuscript can be found at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.16837543.

What is the context?

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is a severe, sometimes fatal, unpredictable disease with highest rates in infants, young children, and adolescents. It is caused by different serogroups of Neisseria meningitidis bacteria. Most cases in Chile are due to meningococcal serogroups B (MenB) and W (MenW). Following a MenW IMD outbreak in 2012, vaccination was introduced, leading to the current National Immunization Program (NIP) in toddlers with quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MenACWY) (protecting against IMD caused by MenA, C, W, and Y).

What is new?

A disease model to predict the impact of vaccination strategies in the Chilean population compared six alternative strategies, using the multi-component MenB (4CMenB) vaccine for infants (protecting against MenB, with potential cross-protection against MenW and Y IMD) and/or the MenACWY vaccine for toddlers and/or adolescents.

What is the impact?

Results, compared to the NIP, show that: Strategy 1 (a program targeting only infants with 4CMenB) would reduce more MenB cases but fewer MenA, C, W and Y cases resulting in a lower reduction of total IMD cases in the long term; Strategy 3 (a program targeting only adolescents with MenACWY) would have a similar effect to the NIP in the short term but a far greater IMD reduction in the long term (as vaccinating this age group eventually reduces transmission to other age groups, reducing their risk of disease); all the other strategies targeted more than one age group, further reducing numbers of IMD cases compared with the NIP. The greatest benefits were seen with infant 4CMenB vaccination combined with toddler and adolescent MenACWY vaccination. Results can help policymakers determine the best IMD strategy to maximize the benefits of available meningococcal vaccines.

Immunogenicity and safety of a quadrivalent meningococcal tetanus toxoid-conjugate vaccine (MenACYW-TT) vs. a licensed quadrivalent meningococcal tetanus toxoid-conjugate vaccine in meningococcal vaccine-naïve and meningococcal C conjugate vaccine-primed toddlers: a phase III randomised study

Vaccination remains the best strategy to reduce invasive meningococcal disease. This study evaluated an investigational tetanus toxoid-conjugate quadrivalent meningococcal vaccine (MenACYW-TT) vs. a licensed tetanus toxoid-conjugate quadrivalent meningococcal vaccine (MCV4-TT) (NCT02955797). Healthy toddlers aged 12–23 months were included if they were either meningococcal vaccine-naïve or MenC conjugate (MCC) vaccine-primed (≥1 dose of MCC prior to 12 months of age). Vaccine-naïve participants were randomised 1:1 to either MenACYW-TT (n = 306) or MCV4-TT (n = 306). MCC-primed participants were randomised 2:1 to MenACYW-TT (n = 203) or MCV4-TT (n = 103). Antibody titres against each of the four meningococcal serogroups were measured by serum bactericidal antibody assay using the human complement. The co-primary objectives of this study were to demonstrate the non-inferiority of MenACYW-TT to MCV4-TT in terms of seroprotection (titres ≥1:8) at Day 30 in both vaccine-naïve and all participants (vaccine-naïve and MCC-primed groups pooled). The immune response for all four serogroups to MenACYW-TT was non-inferior to MCV4-TT in vaccine-naïve participants (seroprotection: range 83.6–99.3% and 81.4–91.6%, respectively) and all participants (seroprotection: range 83.6–99.3% and 81.4–98.0%, respectively). The safety profiles of both vaccines were comparable. MenACYW-TT was well-tolerated and demonstrated non-inferior immunogenicity when administered to MCC vaccine-primed and vaccine-naïve toddlers.

Epidemiology and Control of Meningococcal Disease in Canada: A Long, Complex, and Unfinished Story

The epidemiology of meningococcal disease in Canada has been punctuated by outbreaks caused by serogroup A strains in the 1940s, virulent serogroup C clones from 1985 to 2001, a serogroup B clone in Quebec from 2003 to 2014, and more recently a W clone in British Columbia. Region- and province-wide immunization campaigns have been implemented to control these outbreaks using meningococcal C polysaccharide and conjugate vaccines, a quadrivalent ACWY conjugate vaccine, and a serogroup B protein-based vaccine. Meningococcal C conjugate vaccines have been included in routine immunization programs for children, and ACWY conjugate vaccines have been included in school-based programs for adolescents in most jurisdictions. In contrast, serogroup B protein-based vaccines were only recommended and used for high-risk individuals and to control outbreaks. Currently, the immunization schedules adopted in provinces and territories are not uniform. This is not explained by notable epidemiologic differences. Publicly funded immunization programs are the result of a complex decision-making process. Political factors including public opinion, media attention, interest groups' advocacy campaigns, decision-makers' priorities and budgetary constraints have played important roles in shaping meningococcal programs in Canada, and this should be recognized. As the recent occurrence of outbreaks caused by virulent W clones shows, continued investments in epidemiological surveillance at both the provincial and national levels are necessary, so there can be early warning and informed decisions can be made.

Models to predict the public health impact of vaccine resistance: A systematic review

Pathogen evolution is a potential threat to the long-term benefits provided by public health vaccination campaigns. Mathematical modeling can be a powerful tool to examine the forces responsible for the development of vaccine resistance and to predict its public health implications. We conducted a systematic review of existing literature to understand the construction and application of vaccine resistance models. We identified 26 studies that modeled the public health impact of vaccine resistance for 12 different pathogens. Most models predicted that vaccines would reduce overall disease burden in spite of evolution of vaccine resistance. Relatively few pathogens and populations for which vaccine resistance may be problematic were covered in the reviewed studies, with low- and middle-income countries particularly under-represented. We discuss the key components of model design, as well as patterns of model predictions.

The Elusive Anti-Candida Vaccine: Lessons From the Past and Opportunities for the Future

Candidemia is a bloodstream fungal infection caused by Candida species and is most commonly observed in hospitalized patients. Even with proper antifungal drug treatment, mortality rates remain high at 40–50%. Therefore, prophylactic or preemptive antifungal medications are currently recommended in order to prevent infections in high-risk patients. Moreover, the majority of women experience at least one episode of vulvovaginal candidiasis (VVC) throughout their lifetime and many of them suffer from recurrent VVC (RVVC) with frequent relapses for the rest of their lives. While there currently exists no definitive cure, the only available treatment for RVVC is again represented by antifungal drug therapy. However, due to the limited number of existing antifungal drugs, their associated side effects and the increasing occurrence of drug resistance, other approaches are greatly needed. An obvious prevention measure for candidemia or RVVC relapse would be to immunize at-risk patients with a vaccine effective against Candida infections. In spite of the advanced and proven techniques successfully applied to the development of antibacterial or antiviral vaccines, however, no antifungal vaccine is still available on the market. In this review, we first summarize various efforts to date in the development of anti-Candida vaccines, highlighting advantages and disadvantages of each strategy. We next unfold and discuss general hurdles encountered along these efforts, such as the existence of large genomic variation and phenotypic plasticity across Candida strains and species, and the difficulty in mounting protective immune responses in immunocompromised or immunosuppressed patients. Lastly, we review the concept of “trained immunity” and discuss how induction of this rapid and nonspecific immune response may potentially open new and alternative preventive strategies against opportunistic infections by Candida species and potentially other pathogens.

Cost-effectiveness Comparison of Monovalent C Versus Quadrivalent ACWY Meningococcal Conjugate Vaccination in Canada

BACKGROUND

In Quebec, 1 dose of monovalent C meningococcal conjugate vaccine (Men-C-Con) is offered at 12 months of age and a booster dose in grade 9 (14-15 years of age). In other Canadian provinces, a quadrivalent vaccine against serogroups ACWY (Men-4-Con) is increasingly used for adolescents. An economic analysis was performed to assess the value of a switch from Men-C-Con to Men-4-Con.

METHODS

A compartmental static simulation model was developed to assess the burden of invasive meningococcal disease due to serogroups AWY (AWY-IMD) in a cohort of 100,000 persons with different vaccination programs. Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed, including variation in vaccine price difference ($12; range: $0-$20), AWY-IMD rate (0.08/100,000 to 0.28/100,000 person-years), level of herd immunity generated by adolescent vaccination (from zero to disease elimination) and discounting rate (0%, 3% or 6%).

RESULTS

In the low AWY-IMD rate base scenario, replacing Men-C-Con by Men-4-Con for adolescents would reduce disease burden by 16% (no herd effect) to 58% (moderate herd effect), with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratios between $445,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and $167,000/QALY in a societal perspective. In the high AWY-IMD rate scenario, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio would be in the range of $97,000/QALY to $19,000/QALY.

CONCLUSION

Based on the epidemiologic conditions in Quebec and in most other Canadian provinces, the benefits of Men-4-Con in reducing the burden of disease would be low for a high cost. The switch would, however, be more economically attractive with a much higher incidence rate (as in a few provinces) or with a reduced vaccine price in conditions assuming a moderate to high herd effect.

Adolescent meningococcal serogroup A, W and Y immune responses following immunization with quadrivalent meningococcal A, C, W and Y conjugate vaccine: Optimal age for vaccination

BACKGROUND

Recently the incidence of meningococcal serogroup Y (MenY) and in particular serogroup W (MenW) invasive disease has risen in several European countries, including the Netherlands. Adolescents are a target group for primary prevention through vaccination to protect against disease and reduce carriage and induce herd protection in the population. The present study assessed MenA, MenW and MenY antibody levels in adolescents up to one year following primary vaccination with quadrivalent MenACWY-PS conjugated to tetanus toxoid (MenACWY-TT).

METHODS

In this phase IV, open-label study, healthy 10-, 12- and 15-year-olds received the MenACWY-TT vaccine. Blood samples were collected before, 1month and 1year after the vaccination. Functional antibody levels against MenA, MenW and MenY were measured with serum bactericidal assay using baby rabbit complement (rSBA). MenA-, MenW-, and MenY-PS specific IgG, IgG1 and IgG2 levels were measured using fluorescent-bead-based multiplex immunoassay.

RESULTS

The quadrivalent MenACWY-TT vaccine elicited robust antibody responses against MenA, MenW and MenY, and the majority (94%) of the participants maintained rSBA titers ≥128 one year after the vaccination against all three serogroups. After one year, higher MenW rSBA GMTs were observed in the 12- and 15-year-olds compared to the 10-year-olds, while rSBA GMTs against MenA and MenY were similar between age groups. Furthermore, those participant who showed SBA titer ≥8 at baseline, also had higher antibody levels one year after vaccination as compared to participants with rSBA titer <8 at baseline.

CONCLUSION

The MenACWY-TT vaccine induces robust protective primary immune responses up to one year after vaccination. Our results suggest that persistence of individual protection increases with the age at which a primary quadrivalent MenACWY-TT vaccination is administered. Our results indicate that 12 or 15years seems a more optimal age for a primary quadrivalent MenACWY-TT vaccination to protect against the rapid increase of MenW disease.

The impact of aggregating serogroups in dynamic models of Neisseria meningitidis transmission

Background

Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) is a pathogen of multiple serogroups that is highly prevalent in many populations. Serogroups associated with invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in Canada, for example, include A, B, C, W-135, X and Y. IMD is a rare but serious outcome of Nm infection, and can be prevented with vaccines that target certain serogroups. This has stimulated the development of dynamic models to evaluate vaccine impact. However, these models typically aggregate the various Nm serogroups into a small number of combined groups, instead of modelling each serogroup individually. The impact of aggregation on dynamic Nm model predictions is poorly understood. Our objective was to explore the impact of aggregation on dynamic model predictions.

Methods

We developed two age-structured agent-based models--a 2-strain model and a 4-strain model--to simulate vaccination programs in the Canadian setting. The 2-strain model was used to explore two different groupings: C, versus all other serogroups combined; and B, versus all other serogroups combined. The 4-strain model used the four groupings: C, B, Neisseria lactamica, versus all other serogroups combined. We compared the predicted impact of monovalent C vaccine, quadrivalent ACWY vaccine (MCV-4), and monovalent B vaccine (4CMenB) on the prevalence of serogroup carriage under these different models.

Results

The 2-strain and 4-strain models predicted similar overall impacts of vaccines on carriage prevalence, especially with respect to the vaccine-targeted serogroups. However, there were some significant quantitative and qualitative differences. Declines in vaccine-targeted serogroups were more rapid in the 2-strain model than the 4-strain model, for both the C and the 4CMenB vaccines. Sustained oscillations, and evidence for multiple attractors (i.e., different types of dynamics for the same model parameters but different initial conditions), occurred in the 4-strain model but not the 2-strain model. Strain replacement was also more pronounced in the 4-strain model, on account of the 4-strain model spreading prevalence more thinly across groups and thus enhancing competitive interactions.

Conclusions

Simplifying assumptions like aggregation of serogroups can have significant impacts on dynamic model predictions. Modellers should carefully weigh the advantages and disadvantages of aggregation when formulating models for multi-strain pathogens.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-015-1015-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Timing of an adolescent booster after single primary meningococcal serogroup C conjugate immunization at young age; an intervention study among Dutch teenagers

BACKGROUND

Meningococcal serogroup C (MenC) specific antibody levels decline rapidly after a single primary MenC conjugate (MenCC) vaccination in preschool children. A second MenCC vaccination during (pre)adolescence might attain longer lasting individual and herd protection. We aimed to establish an appropriate age for a (pre)adolescent MenCC booster vaccination.

METHODS

A phase-IV trial with healthy 10-year-olds (n = 91), 12-year-olds (n = 91) and 15-year-olds (n = 86) who were primed with a MenCC vaccine nine years earlier. All participants received a booster vaccination with the same vaccine. Serum bactericidal antibody assay titers (SBA, using baby rabbit complement), MenC-polysaccharide (MenC-PS) specific IgG, IgG subclass and avidity and tetanus-specific IgG levels were measured prior to (T0) and 1 month (T1) and 1 year (T2) after the booster. An SBA titer ≥8 was the correlate of protection.

RESULTS

258 (96.3%) participants completed all three study visits. At T0, 19% of the 10-year-olds still had an SBA titer ≥8, compared to 34% of the 12-year-olds (P = 0.057) and 45% of the 15-year-olds (P<0.001). All participants developed high SBA titers (GMTs>30,000 in all age groups) and MenC-PS specific IgG levels at T1. IgG levels mainly consisted of IgG1, but the contribution of IgG2 increased with age. At T2, 100% of participants still had an SBA titer ≥8, but the 15-year-olds showed the highest protective antibody levels and the lowest decay.

CONCLUSION

Nine years after primary MenCC vaccination adolescents develop high protective antibody levels in response to a booster and are still sufficiently protected one year later. Our results suggest that persistence of individual--and herd--protection increases with the age at which an adolescent booster is administered.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

EU Clinical Trials Database 2011-000375-13 Dutch Trial Register NTR3521.

Vaccine-preventable diseases: from paediatric to adult targets

The morbidity and mortality related to many communicable infectious diseases have significantly decreased in Western countries largely because of the use of antibiotics, and the implementation of well-planned vaccination strategies and national immunisation schedules specifically aimed at infants and children. However, although immunisation has proved to be highly effective for public health, more effort is needed to improve the currently sub-optimal rates of vaccination against various diseases among adults who may be at risk because of their age, medical condition or occupation. The vaccines currently licenced in Western countries are safe, immunogenic and effective against many infectious diseases and their complications, but the availability of newer vaccines or vaccines with new indications, the evolving ecology and epidemiology of many infections, population ageing, and other demographic changes (i.e. the increasing prevalence of chronic comorbidities and immunodeficiencies, mass migration, new working relationships, and widespread international tourism) require changes in the approach to immunisation. There is now a need for appropriate preventive measures for adults and the elderly aimed at protecting people at risk by using every possible catch-up opportunity and recommending specific age-related schedules on the basis of local epidemiology.