Modelling the epidemiological impact of rotavirus vaccination in Germany – A Bayesian approach

Johnstone-Robertson S, Lal R, M. Trauer J, Stone L. Assessing the impact of Australia's mass vaccination campaigns over the Delta and Omicron outbreaks

BACKGROUND

The Australian Government implemented a national vaccination campaign against COVID-19 beginning February 22, 2021. The roll-out was criticised for being delayed relative to many high-income countries, but high levels of vaccination coverage were belatedly achieved. The large-scale Omicron outbreak in January 2022 resulted in a massive number of cases and deaths, although mortality would have been far higher if not for vigorous efforts to rapidly vaccinate the entire population. The impact of the vaccination coverage was assessed over this extended period.

METHODS

We considered NSW, as the Australian jurisdiction with the highest quality data for our purposes and which still reflected the national experience. Weekly death rates were derived among individuals aged 50+ with respect to vaccine status between August 8, 2021 and July 9, 2022. We evaluated deaths averted by the vaccination campaign by modelling alternative counterfactual scenarios based on a simple data-driven modelling methodology presented by Jia et al. (2023).

FINDINGS

Unvaccinated individuals had a 7.7-fold greater mortality rate than those who were fully vaccinated among people aged 50+, which rose to 11.2-fold in those who had received a booster dose. If NSW had fully vaccinated its ~2.9 million 50+ residents earlier (by July 28, 2021), only 440 of the total 3,495 observed 50+ deaths would have been averted. Up to July 9, 2022, the booster campaign prevented 1,860 deaths. In the absence of a vaccination campaign, ~21,250 COVID-19 50+ deaths (conservative estimate) could have been expected in NSW i.e., some 6 times the actual total. We also find the methodology of Jia et al. (2023) can sometimes significantly underestimate that actual number.

INTERPRETATION

The Australian vaccination campaign was successful in reducing mortality over 2022, relative to alternative hypothetical vaccination scenarios. The success was attributable to the Australian public's high levels of engagement with vaccination in the face of new SARS-COV-2 variants, and because high levels of vaccination coverage (full and booster) were achieved in the period shortly before the major Omicron outbreak of 2022.

Regional hospitalisation and seasonal variations of Pediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis pre- and post-RV vaccination: a prospective and retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus is the primary cause of gastroenteritis in children worldwide and is a leading cause of gastroenteritis in children, with a significant burden. Rotavirus vaccine became available in Ireland in 2016. This study aimed to investigate hospital admissions and seasonal characteristics of rotavirus gastroenteritis in a pre- and post-vaccination period in a single district general hospital.

METHODS

In the post-vaccination year, from November 18th 2016 to November 18th 2017, all children up to 3 years of age who presented to Mayo University Hospital with vomiting and diarrhea, were recruited and had their stool tested for rotavirus. Retrospective analysis of hospital data of children of the same age during pre-vaccination years (2014-2016) were used for comparison.

RESULTS

Compared with the pre-vaccination years (2014-2016), the median percentages of reduction of rotavirus positive stool requests and hospital admissions were high, 48.5% and 73%, respectively. In the post-vaccination year, the median percentage of reduction of emergency department presentation (stool requests) with gastroenteritis was 9%. No delay in the onset of RV season or reduction of the peak of RV infection was noted in the post-vaccination year. The duration of rotavirus season in 2016/2017 was short.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with 3 pre-vaccination years, the total number of gastroenteritis presentations, gastroenteritis hospital admissions, and rotavirus positive gastroenteritis cases were all reduced, and the duration of the rotavirus season was shorter.

The burden of rotavirus-associated acute gastroenteritis in the elderly: assessment of the epidemiology in the context of universal childhood vaccination programs

INTRODUCTION

Rotaviruses (RVs) cause acute gastroenteritis (AGE) in infants and young children worldwide and also in older adults (≥60 years), however the burden among this age group is not well understood. Herd immunity through pediatric RV vaccination may reduce the burden of RVGE across all ages, however the impact of pediatric vaccination on burden in older adults is poorly understood.

AREAS COVERED

This systematic review was undertaken to identify studies related to the following objectives: understand the burden of RV in older adults, RV seroprevalence, and the impact of pediatric vaccination on this burden and highlight evidence gaps to guide future research. Of studies identified, 59 studies from two databases were included in this analysis following a review by two reviewers.

EXPERT OPINION

RV is an understudied disease in older adults. We found that 0-62% of patients with AGE tested positive for RV, with results varying by setting, country, and patient age. Results also suggest that pediatric vaccination benefits older adults through herd protection. Several studies showed a reduction in RV incidence after vaccination. However, there was variety in results and lack of consistency in outcomes reported. Further studies targeting older adults are needed to better characterize RV burden.

Impact of Routine Rotavirus Vaccination in Germany: Evaluation Five Years After Its Introduction

BACKGROUND

Routine rotavirus (RV)-vaccination is recommended in Germany since August 2013. Five years later, we evaluated the recommendation by examining vaccine uptake and the impact on RV-gastroenteritis (RVGE) burden in all age groups and on intussusceptions in infants.

METHODS

We estimated RV-vaccine uptake in the 2014-2018 birth cohorts using statutory health insurance prescription data. For impact assessment, we analyzed RVGE-surveillance data of the German infectious diseases notification system. We compared age-specific RVGE-incidences of different severity between pre-vaccination (2005/06-2007/08) and routine vaccination period (2013/14-2017/18) calculating incidence rate ratios (IRR) using Poisson regression. To determine the effect on intussusception, we used hospital discharge data (2006-2017) and compared incidences between pre-vaccination and routine vaccination period using Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Vaccination coverage increased from 59% (2014) to 80% (2018). Incidences of RVGE-outpatient cases, RVGE-hospitalization and nosocomial RVGE among <5-year-olds decreased by 74% (IRR = 0.26; 95% CI: 0.26-0.27), 70% (IRR = 0.30; 95% CI: 0.30-0.31) and 70% (IRR = 0.30; 95% CI: 0.30-0.31), respectively. Incidence of RVGE-outpatient cases in age groups ineligible for RV-vaccination decreased by 38% (IRR 0.62; 95% CI: 0.61-0.63). Compared with the pre-vaccination period, incidence of intussusception in the first year of life decreased by 28% (IRR = 0.73; 95% CI: 0.68-0.79) while at age of the first vaccine-dose (7th-12th week of age) increase in incidence of intussusception was non-significant (IRR = 1.29; 95% CI: 0.93-1.78).

CONCLUSIONS

Routine RV-vaccination is well accepted in Germany. Since implementation of routine RV-vaccination, RVGE significantly decreased in <5-year-olds and in non-vaccinated older age groups through herd protection. The decline of intussusceptions in the first life year suggests a potential vaccination-associated protection against gastrointestinal infections that might trigger intussusceptions. These encouraging results should be communicated to doctors and parents for further improvement of vaccine uptake and protection of more infants.

Disease burden and seasonal impact of improving rotavirus vaccine coverage in the United States: A modeling study

Background

Prior to vaccine introduction in 2006, rotavirus was the leading cause of severe diarrhea in children under five years of age in the U.S. Vaccination of infants has led to major reductions in disease burden, a shift in the seasonal peak and the emergence of a biennial pattern of disease. However, rotavirus vaccine coverage has remained relatively low (70–75%) compared to other infant immunizations in the U.S. Part of the reason for this lower coverage is that children whose care is provided by family practitioners (FP) have considerably lower probability of being vaccinated compared to those seen be pediatricians (PE). We used a dynamic transmission model to assess the impact of improving rotavirus vaccine coverage by FP and/or PE on rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) incidence and seasonal patterns.

Methods

A deterministic age-structured dynamic model with susceptible, infectious, and recovered compartments (SIRS model) was used to simulate rotavirus transmission and vaccination. We estimated the reduction of RVGE cases by 2 doses of rotavirus vaccine with three vaccination scenarios: (Status Quo: 85% coverage by pediatricians and 45% coverage by family practitioners; Improved FP: 85% coverage by pediatricians and family practitioners; Improved FP+PE: 95% coverage by pediatricians and family practitioners). In addition, we tested the sensitivity of the model to the assumption of random mixing patterns between children visiting pediatricians and children visiting family practitioners.

Results

In this model, higher vaccine coverage provided by family practitioners and pediatricians leads to lower incidence of severe RVGE cases (23% averted in Improved FP and 57% averted in Improved FP+PE compared to Status Quo) including indirect effects. One critical impact of higher total vaccine coverage is the effect on rotavirus epidemic patterns in the U.S.; the biennial rotavirus epidemic patterns shifted to reduced annual epidemic patterns. Additionally, assortative mixing patterns in children visiting pediatricians and family practitioners amplify the impact of increasing vaccine coverage.

Conclusion

Other high-income countries that introduced vaccine have not experienced biennial patterns, like the U.S. Our results suggest that increasing overall vaccine coverage to 85% among infants would lead to an overall reduction in incidence with annual epidemic patterns.

Rotavirus Gastroenteritis Infection Among Children Vaccinated and Unvaccinated With Rotavirus Vaccine in Southern China: A Population-Based Assessment

IMPORTANCE

Since 2000, the Lanzhou lamb rotavirus vaccine has been exclusively licensed in China for voluntary rotavirus gastroenteritis (RV-GE) prevention.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association of the Lanzhou lamb rotavirus vaccination with RV-GE among children in southern China.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional, ecological study was set in Guangzhou, China. Participants were infants possibly vaccinated (aged 2 months to 3 years) and the children ineligible for vaccination (aged ≥4 years). The study was conducted from May 1, 2007, to April 30, 2016, and the data analysis was conducted in July 2016.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Annual median age at onset of RV-GE and seasonal distribution of incidence. Cases of RV-GE in Guangzhou, China, diagnosed from May 1, 2007, to April 30, 2016, and reported to the National Information System for Disease Control and Prevention were examined. Poisson regression models were fitted among 32 452 children younger than 4 years and among 450 children who had been ineligible for vaccination, while controlling for secular trends, socioeconomic status, and meteorological factors. Logistic regression was used to assess the indirect effects provided by the vaccinated infants from 2009 to 2011 on unvaccinated infants aged 2 to 35 months based on a separate case-control data set.

RESULTS

During 9 seasons, 119 705 patients with gastroenteritis were reported; 33 407 were confirmed for RV-GE (21 202 [63.5%] male, 32 022 [95.8%] aged <4 years, and 31 306 [93.8%] residing in urban districts). The median age at onset for all patients with RV-GE increased from 11 months during the 2007 season to 15 months during the 2015 season, and the onset, peak, and cessation of incidence were delayed. When citywide vaccination coverage in the prior 12 months was classified into high and low groups (≥8.36% vs <8.36%), the incidence rate ratio for the high coverage group decreased by 32.4% among children younger than 4 years (incidence rate ratio, 0.676; 95% CI, 0.659-0.693; P < .001). Among the children ineligible for vaccination, the incidence rate ratio in higher coverage periods was 0.790 (95% CI, 0.351-0.915; P < .001) compared with the lower coverage. Compared with districts with 14% or less vaccination coverage, the adjusted odds ratio for RV-GE among unvaccinated children younger than 3 years was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.73-0.99; P = .03) for districts with 15% to 19% of coverage, and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.67-0.93; P = .004) for districts with more than 20% of coverage.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study provides evidence of the population health benefits of the Lanzhou lamb rotavirus vaccination in preventing RV-GE among children in China younger than 4 years, including herd effects.

Universal rotavirus vaccination program in Sicily: Reduction in health burden and cost despite low vaccination coverage

Rotavirus is considered the main cause of severe gastroenteritis and nosocomial infections in Pediatric units, especially during late winter and early spring season in temperate region. In 2013 Sicilian Region, for the first time in Italy, introduced universal Rotavirus vaccination. This study aims to estimate health and economic impact on rotavirus Gastroenteritis (RVGE) among children aged 0–59 months in Sicily, after rotavirus vaccine introduction.

We analyzed hospital discharge records including a diagnosis of RVGE occurred from 1^st January 2009 to 31^st December 2016 among hospitalized children aged 0 to 59 months, residents in Sicily. RVGEs were defined as all hospitalizations with an ICD-9-CM diagnosis code of 008.61 on first or any diagnosis position. Also an economic impact analysis on Health Regional System was conducted.

We observed a consistent decline of hospitalization after rotavirus vaccination introduction from 394 per 100,000 in 2009–2012 to 220 per 100,000 in 2013–2016. We found a change in the peak of reported cases by at least one month from March-April in the pre-vaccination period to May-June in the post-vaccination period. Since 2013, we estimated that the annual average cost saved is 1,134,056 € when considering direct and indirect costs to health care as well as vaccination costs.

Our study is the first analysis conducted as far as we are aware in a high-income setting with poor coverage (lower than 50%), demonstrating a significant reduction of RVGE hospitalizations in Sicily after vaccine introduction. Moreover, was observed a consistent impact of vaccination on health care cost saving.

Is the impact of childhood influenza vaccination less than expected: a transmission modelling study

BACKGROUND

To reduce the burden of severe influenza, most industrialized countries target specific risk-groups with influenza vaccines, e.g. the elderly or individuals with comorbidities. Since children are the main spreaders, some countries have recently implemented childhood vaccination programs to reduce overall virus transmission and thereby influenza disease in the whole population. The introduction of childhood vaccination programs was often supported by modelling studies that predicted substantial incidence reductions. We developed a mathematical transmission model to examine the potential impact of childhood influenza vaccination in Germany, while also challenging established modelling assumptions.

METHODS

We developed an age-stratified SEIR-type transmission model to reproduce the epidemic influenza seasons between 2003/04 and 2013/14. The model was built upon German population counts, contact patterns, and vaccination history and was fitted to seasonal data on influenza-attributable medically attended acute respiratory infections (I-MAARI) and strain distribution using Bayesian methods. As novelties we (i) implemented a stratified model structure enabling seasonal variability and (ii) deviated from the commonly assumed mass-action-principle by employing a phenomenological transmission rate.

RESULTS

According to the model, by vaccinating primarily the elderly over ten seasons 4 million (95% prediction interval: 3.84 - 4.19) I-MAARI were prevented which corresponds to an 8.6% (8.3% - 8.9%) reduction compared to a no-vaccination scenario and a number-needed-to-vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one I-MAARI of 37.1 (35.5 - 38.7). Additional vaccination of 2-10 year-old children at 40% coverage would have led to an overall I-MAARI reduction of 17.8% (17.1 - 18.7%) mostly due to indirect effects with a NNV of 20.7 (19.6 - 21.6). When employing the traditional mass-action-principle, the model predicted a more than 3-fold higher I-MAARI reduction (55.6%) due to childhood vaccination.

CONCLUSION

In Germany, the introduction of routine childhood influenza vaccination could considerably reduce I-MAARI among all age-groups and improve the NNV. However, the predicted impact is much lower compared to previous studies, which is primarily caused by our phenomenological approach to modelling influenza virus transmission.

Universal Mass Vaccination Against Rotavirus: Indirect Effects on Rotavirus Infections in Neonates and Unvaccinated Young Infants Not Eligible for Vaccination

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus (RV)-associated infections account for high numbers of hospitalizations in neonates and young infants. Universal mass vaccination (UMV) has been shown to prevent the burden of disease in vaccinated children.

METHODS

The present study investigated the long-term effects of UMV on RV-associated hospitalizations in children with particular focus on neonates and young infants (≤42 days old) not eligible for vaccination. Ten years of Austrian surveillance data were compared, including 10 960 laboratory-confirmed RV cases before (prevaccination period [PreVP]) and after (postvaccination period [PostVP]) introduction of UMV.

RESULTS

A postvaccination decrease in hospitalized community-acquired RV infections by 89.3% was seen in all age groups, including unvaccinated neonates and young infants. Of the latter, 27.6% had a nosocomial RV infection in PreVP, and 19.3% in PostVP. Overall, the proportion of nosocomial RV infections increased from 5.5% in PreVP to 13.0% in PostVP. Breakthrough infections, usually after incomplete RV vaccination, could be identified in 6.2% of patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Unvaccinated neonates and infants ≤42 days old may indirectly benefit from UMV by reduction of RV infections. Breakthrough infections underline the importance of early and complete protection by the vaccine. In older patients, heightened awareness of nosocomial RV infections is warranted. Identification of RV reservoirs is also needed.

Methods for Health Economic Evaluation of Vaccines and Immunization Decision Frameworks: A Consensus Framework from a European Vaccine Economics Community

BACKGROUND

Incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses [health economic evaluations (HEEs)] of vaccines are routinely considered in decision making on immunization in various industrialized countries. While guidelines advocating more standardization of such HEEs (mainly for curative drugs) exist, several immunization-specific aspects (e.g. indirect effects or discounting approach) are still a subject of debate within the scientific community.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to develop a consensus framework for HEEs of vaccines to support the development of national guidelines in Europe.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted to identify prevailing issues related to HEEs of vaccines. Furthermore, European experts in the field of health economics and immunization decision making were nominated and asked to select relevant aspects for discussion. Based on this, a workshop was held with these experts. Aspects on 'mathematical modelling', 'health economics' and 'decision making' were debated in group-work sessions (GWS) to formulate recommendations and/or--if applicable--to state 'pros' and 'contras'.

RESULTS

A total of 13 different aspects were identified for modelling and HEE: model selection, time horizon of models, natural disease history, measures of vaccine-induced protection, duration of vaccine-induced protection, indirect effects apart from herd protection, target population, model calibration and validation, handling uncertainty, discounting, health-related quality of life, cost components, and perspectives. For decision making, there were four aspects regarding the purpose and the integration of HEEs of vaccines in decision making as well as the variation of parameters within uncertainty analyses and the reporting of results from HEEs. For each aspect, background information and an expert consensus were formulated.

CONCLUSIONS

There was consensus that when HEEs are used to prioritize healthcare funding, this should be done in a consistent way across all interventions, including vaccines. However, proper evaluation of vaccines implies using tools that are not commonly used for therapeutic drugs. Due to the complexity of and uncertainties around vaccination, transparency in the documentation of HEEs and during subsequent decision making is essential.

Did Large-Scale Vaccination Drive Changes in the Circulating Rotavirus Population in Belgium?

Vaccination can place selective pressures on viral populations, leading to changes in the distribution of strains as viruses evolve to escape immunity from the vaccine. Vaccine-driven strain replacement is a major concern after nationwide rotavirus vaccine introductions. However, the distribution of the predominant rotavirus genotypes varies from year to year in the absence of vaccination, making it difficult to determine what changes can be attributed to the vaccines. To gain insight in the underlying dynamics driving changes in the rotavirus population, we fitted a hierarchy of mathematical models to national and local genotype-specific hospitalization data from Belgium, where large-scale vaccination was introduced in 2006. We estimated that natural- and vaccine-derived immunity was strongest against completely homotypic strains and weakest against fully heterotypic strains, with an intermediate immunity amongst partially heterotypic strains. The predominance of G2P[4] infections in Belgium after vaccine introduction can be explained by a combination of natural genotype fluctuations and weaker natural and vaccine-induced immunity against infection with strains heterotypic to the vaccine, in the absence of significant variation in strain-specific vaccine effectiveness against disease. However, the incidence of rotavirus gastroenteritis is predicted to remain low despite vaccine-driven changes in the distribution of genotypes.

Qualitative Effects of Monovalent Vaccination Against Rotavirus: A Comparison of North America and South America

Rotavirus is the most common cause of severe gastroenteritis in young children worldwide. The introduction of vaccination programs has led to a significant reduction in number of hospitalizations due to rotavirus in North and South American countries. Little work has been done, however, to examine the differential impact of vaccination as a function of strain distribution and strain-specific vaccine efficacy. We developed a two-strain epidemiological model of rotavirus transmission, and used it to examine the effects of a monovalent vaccine (Rotarix) on the qualitative behaviors of infection levels in a population. For contrast, we parameterized our model with strain distribution data from North America and from South America. In all cases, the introduction of the vaccine led to significant decreases in the prevalence of primary infection due to both strains for a decade or more, after which the overall prevalence recovers to near pre-vaccination levels. The prevalence of G1P[8] is significantly higher in North America (73 % of all rotavirus infections) compared to that in South America (34 %). Our model predicts that the introduction of Rotarix might result in major strain replacement in regions such as North America where the prevalence of G1P[8] is relatively high, due to higher efficacy of Rotarix against infection caused by G1P[8], while regions with lower prevalence of G1P[8], such as South America, are not susceptible to major strain replacement.