Informing vaccine decision-making: A strategic multi-attribute ranking tool for vaccines-SMART Vaccines 2.0

Evaluation of antibody-based preventive alternatives for respiratory syncytial virus: a novel multi-criteria decision analysis framework and assessment of nirsevimab in Spain

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a highly infectious disease that poses a significant clinical and medical burden, as well as social disruption and economic costs, recognized by the World Health Organization as a public health issue. After several failed attempts to find preventive candidates (compounds, products, including vaccines), new alternatives might be available, one being nirsevimab, the first and only option approved for RSV prevention in neonates and infants during their first RSV season. The objective of this study was to develop a novel multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework for RSV antibody-based preventive alternatives and to use it to assess the value of nirsevimab vs. placebo as a systematic immunization approach to prevent RSV in neonates and infants during their first RSV season in Spain.

METHODS

Based on a pre-established model called Vaccinex, an ad-hoc MCDA framework was created to reflect relevant attributes for the assessment of current and future antibody-based preventive measures for RSV. The estimated value of nirsevimab was obtained by means of an additive linear model combining weights and scores assigned by a multidisciplinary committee of 9 experts. A retest and three sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Nirsevimab was evaluated through a novel framework with 26 criteria by the committee as a measure that adds value (positive final estimated value: 0.56 ± 0.11) to the current RSV scenario in Spain, by providing a high efficacy for prevention of neonates and infants. In addition, its implementation might generate cost savings in hospitalizations and to the healthcare system and increase the level of public health awareness among the general population, while reducing health inequities.

CONCLUSIONS

Under a methodology with increasing use in the health field, nirsevimab has been evaluated as a measure which adds value for RSV prevention in neonates and infants during their first RSV season in Spain.

Prioritization of Vaccines for Inclusion into China’s Expanded Program on Immunization: Evidence from Experts’ Knowledge and Opinions

Background: Vaccine developers in China have made an increasing number of infectious diseases preventable through vaccination. An appropriate decision-making procedure is necessary for making wise decisions on whether to introduce new vaccines into the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI). When there are several vaccines that could potentially be considered, a scientifically justifiable mechanism is needed for prioritizing and sequencing vaccines for consideration. Methods: We used a modified Delphi technique (MDT) to develop and refine an indicator system to prioritize vaccines and make policy recommendations concerning their introduction into China’s EPI system. From January through May 2021, thirty-nine experts were recruited and participated in a two-round Delphi survey that was based on a set of candidate indicators obtained through a literature review and reference to the WHO vaccine introduction recommendations. Using the resulting indicator system, we conducted a third consultation with a multi-disciplinary group of experts who scored five program-eligible candidate vaccines to determine prioritization and sequencing for consideration of inclusion into the EPI. Results: Response rates of the thirty-nine experts were 100% and 97.4% across the two rounds. Authority coefficients from rounds one to three were over 0.70, reflecting the high accuracy and reliability of the consultation. Coordination coefficients of importance scores for primary, secondary, and tertiary indicators were 0.486, 0.356, 0.275 in round one, and 0.405, 0.340, and 0.236 in round two. According to the scores from 30 experts using our indicator system, the sequence and scores (1–10 scale, 10 highest) of 5 candidate vaccines were varicella (6.91), meningococcal conjugate AC (6.83), Hib (6.74), influenza (6.56), and EV71 (6.17) vaccines. Conclusions: A modified Delphi technique effectively built a scientific, rational, comprehensive, and systematic indicator system for prioritizing vaccine candidates for consideration of inclusion into the EPI. The rank order will be used by the technical working groups of China’s National Immunization Advisory Committee to sequentially develop and present Evidence-to-Recommendation tables for making policy recommendations.

Social preferences for adopting new vaccines in the national immunization program: A discrete choice experiment

Governments regularly have to decide whether new vaccines should be adopted in their national immunization program. These choices imply complex trade-offs of epidemiological, medical and socio-economic criteria. We investigated how the population in Flanders (Belgium) wants their government to set vaccine-funding priorities. In December 2019, we executed a discrete choice experiment in a sample of the Flemish population (N = 1636). In total, we analysed 16 360 choices between vaccines competing for funding, described in terms of eight characteristics. Using a panel mixed logit model, we quantified the relative importance of each characteristic and investigated differences in preferences across respondent groups. The observed vaccine priorities were different from those that would be identified through cost-effectiveness analysis. People valued the health impact from infectious diseases differently than their weight expressed in QALYs would suggest. Mortality and frequently occurring mild illness were valued higher, whereas lasting morbidity received lower weight. Contribution of the vaccine to disease eradication and uncertainty in vaccine effectiveness were both highly influential factors. Health equity impact was also important whereas the economic impact of the disease did not matter at all. Our results can be used to incorporate public values into vaccine decision-making.

SMART Vaccines 2.0 decision-support platform: a tool to facilitate and promote priority setting for sustainable vaccination in resource-limited settings

In resource-constrained environments, priority setting is critical to making sustainable decisions for introducing new and underused vaccines and choosing among vaccine products. Donor organisations and national governments in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) recognise the need to support prioritisation of vaccine decisions driven by local health system capacity, epidemiology and financial sustainability.

Successful efforts have supported the establishment of National Immunisation Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs) to undertake evidence-informed decision making (EIDM) in LMICs. Now, attention is increasingly focused on supporting their function to leverage local expertise and priorities. EIDM and priority-setting functions are complex and dynamic processes. Here, we report a pilot of a web-based decision-support tool. Applying tenets of multicriteria decision analysis, SMART Vaccines 2.0 supported transparent, reproducible and evidence-informed priority setting with an easy-to-use interface and shareable outputs.

The pilot was run by the Uganda NITAG who were requested by the Ministry of Health (MOH) in 2016 to produce recommendations on the prioritised introduction of five new vaccines. The tool was acceptable to the NITAG and supported their recommendations to the MOH. The tool highlighted sensitivity in the prioritisation process to the inherent biases of different stakeholders. This feature also enabled examination of the implications of data uncertainty. Feedback from users identified areas where the tool could more explicitly support evidence-to-recommendation frameworks, ultimately informing the next generation of the platform, PriorityVax.

Country ownership and priority setting in vaccine decisions are central to sustainability. PriorityVax promotes auditable and rigorous deliberations; enables and captures the decision matrix of users; and generates shareable documentation of the process.

Multi-criteria decision analysis to prioritize the introduction of new vaccines in Indonesia by using the framework of the strategic multi-attribute ranking tool for vaccines (SMART vaccines)

Background: Decision-making processes regarding new vaccine prioritizations are complex. The objective of this study was to prioritize the introduction of new vaccines in Indonesia.Methods: A multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was applied in this study. A preliminary data collection form was developed to collect country-specific data in relation to 30 pre-defined attributes. In particular, an open-ended questionnaire was conducted among targeted respondents from global level, national level and vaccine manufacturers, which were involved in the financial flows of new vaccine procurement in Indonesia. For setting new vaccines priorities, targeted respondents were asked to assign weight on 10 selected criteria.Results: Top 3 attributes with the highest weight from respondents were premature deaths averted per year, incident cases prevented per year, and cost-effectiveness. Applying criteria scores and weight assessment, the result showed that PCV, rotavirus, HPV, and JE would be on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rank for setting new vaccine priority in Indonesia. There was a significant difference score (p value <0.05) between all these vaccines.Conclusions: PCV, rotavirus and HPV vaccines should be more prioritized than JE vaccine. This ranking is in line with the WHO's priority list, which potentially illustrates the validity and usefulness of our MCDA-approach.

Pathway towards an ideal and sustainable framework agreement for the public procurement of vaccines in Spain: a multi-criteria decision analysis

Objective: To advance the development of an ideal and sustainable framework agreement for the public procurement of vaccines in Spain, and to agree on the desirable award criteria and their relative weight. Methods: A multidisciplinary committee of seven health-care professionals and managers developed a partial multi-criteria decision analysis to determine the award criteria that should be considered and their specific weights for the public procurement of routine vaccines and seasonal influenza vaccines, considering their legal viability. A re-test of the results was carried out. The current situation was analyzed through 118 tender specifications and compared to the ideal framework. Results: Price is the prevailing award criterion for the public procurement of both routine (weighting of 60% versus 40% for all other criteria) and influenza (36% versus 64%) vaccines. Ideally, 22 criteria should be considered for routine vaccines, grouped and weighted into five domains: efficacy (weighting of 29%), economic aspects (27%), vaccine characteristics (22%), presentation form and packaging (13%), and others (9%). Per criteria set, price was the most important criterion (22%), followed by effectiveness (9%), and composition/formulation (7%). Regarding influenza vaccines, 20 criteria were selected, grouped, and weighted: efficacy (29%), economic aspects (25%), vaccine characteristics (20%), presentation form and packaging (16%), and others (11%). Per criteria set, price was also the most relevant criterion (19%), followed by composition/formulation (8%), and effectiveness (8%). Conclusions: Contrary to the current approach, technical award criteria should prevail over economic criteria in an ideal and sustainable framework agreement for the public procurement of vaccines.

Value Frameworks for Vaccines: Which Dimensions Are Most Relevant?

In addition to more narrow criteria such as safety, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, vaccines can also be evaluated based on broader criteria such as their economic impact, contribution to disease eradication objectives, caregiver aspects, financial protection offered, equity or social acceptability. We summarize a survey executed in a sample of the population (n = 1000) in Flanders, Belgium, in which we investigated support for using these broader criteria to evaluate vaccines for funding decisions. By means of both favourable and unfavourable framings of a hypothetical vaccine across 40 value dimensions, we find support for the view that people indeed consider a broad range of medical and socio-economic criteria relevant. Several of these are not incorporated in standard evaluation frameworks for vaccines. The different results we find for different framings highlight the importance of developing a consistent a priori value framework for vaccine evaluation, rather than evaluating vaccines on an ad hoc basis.

'It takes two to tango': Bridging the gap between country need and vaccine product innovation

Background

Despite a growing global commitment to universal health coverage, considerable vaccine coverage and uptake gaps persist in resource-constrained settings. One way of addressing the gaps is by ensuring product innovation is relevant and responsive to the needs of these contexts. Total Systems Effectiveness (TSE) framework has been developed to characterize preferred vaccine attributes from the perspective of country decision-makers to inform research and development (R&D) of products. A proof of concept pilot study took place in Thailand in 2018 to examine the feasibility and usefulness of the TSE approach using a rotavirus hypothetical test-case.

Methods

The excel-based model used multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to compare and evaluate five hypothetical rotavirus vaccine products. The model was populated with local data and products were ranked against decision criteria identified by Thai stakeholders. A one-way sensitivity analysis was performed to identify criteria that influenced vaccine ranking. Self-assessment forms were distributed to R&D stakeholders on the usability of the approach and were subsequently analysed.

Results

The model identified significant parameters that impacted on MCDA rankings. Self-assessment forms revealed that TSE was perceived as being able to encourage closer collaboration between country decision makers and vaccine developers.

Conclusions

The pilot study demonstrates that it is feasible to use an MCDA approach to elicit stakeholder preferences and determine influential parameters to help identify the preferred product characteristics for R&D from the perspective of country decision-makers. It found that TSE can help steer manufacturers to develop products that are better aligned with country need. Findings will guide further development of the TSE concept.

Adjuvanted influenza vaccine for the Italian elderly in the 2018/19 season: an updated health technology assessment

BACKGROUND

The elderly, defined here as subjects aged ≥ 65 years, are among at-risk subjects for whom annual influenza vaccination is recommended. For the 2018/19 season, three vaccine types are available for the elderly in Italy: trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV), adjuvanted TIV (aTIV) and quadrivalent inactivated vaccines (QIV). No health technology assessment (HTA) of seasonal influenza vaccination in the elderly has previously been conducted in Italy.

METHODS

An HTA was conducted in 2017 to analyze the burden of influenza illness, the characteristics, efficacy, safety and cost-effectiveness of available vaccines and the related organizational and ethical implications. This was then contextualized to the 2018/19 influenza season. Comprehensive literature reviews/analyses were performed and a static mathematical model developed in order to address the above issues.

RESULTS

In Italy, influenza is usually less common in the elderly than in other age-classes, but the burden of disease is the highest; >10% of infected elderly subjects develop complications, and about 90% of all influenza-related deaths occur in this age-class. All available vaccines are effective, safe and acceptable from an ethical standpoint. However, aTIV has proved more immunogenic and effective in the elderly. Furthermore, from the third payer's perspective, aTIV is highly cost-effective and cost-saving in comparison with TIV and QIV, respectively. Nevertheless, vaccination coverage needs to be improved.

CONCLUSIONS

According to this HTA, aTIV appeared the vaccine of choice in the elderly. HTA should be reapplied whenever new relevant data become available.