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Arya S, Norton N, Kaushik P, Brandtmüller A, Tsoumani E. Recent changes to adult national immunization programs for pneumococcal vaccination in Europe and how they impact coverage: A systematic review of published and grey literature. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2023; 19:2279394. [PMID: 38014651 PMCID: PMC10760380 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2023.2279394] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2023] [Accepted: 11/01/2023] [Indexed: 11/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Despite widespread use of pneumococcal vaccines throughout Europe, the burden of pneumococcal disease (PD) in adults is considerable. To mitigate this burden, National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA) agencies assess the value of different vaccine schedules for protecting against PD. The aim of this review was to assess the evidence and rationales used by NITAGs/HTA agencies, when considering recent changes to National Immunization Programs (NIPs) for adults, and how identified changes affected vaccine coverage rates (VCRs). A systematic review was conducted of published literature from PubMed® and Embase®, and gray literature from HTA/NITAG websites from the last 5 y, covering 31 European countries. Evidence related to NIP recommendations, epidemiology (invasive PD, pneumonia), health economic assessments and VCRs were collected and synthesized. Eighty-four records providing data for 26 countries were identified. Of these, eight described explicit changes to NIPs for adults in seven countries. Despite data gaps, some trends were observed; first, there appears to be a convergence of NIP recommendations in many countries toward sequential vaccination, with a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), followed by pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine 23. Second, reducing economic or healthcare burden were common rationales for implementing changes. Third, most health economic analyses assessing higher-valency PCVs for adults found its inclusion in NIPs cost-effective. Finally, higher coverage rates were seen in most cases where countries had expanded their NIPs to cover at-risk populations. The findings can encourage agencies to improve surveillance systems and work to reach the NIP's target populations more effectively.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stuti Arya
- Evidence Review and Synthesis, Quantify Research, Mohali, India
| | - Nicholas Norton
- Evidence Review and Synthesis, Quantify Research, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Puneet Kaushik
- Evidence Review and Synthesis, Quantify Research, Mohali, India
| | - Agnes Brandtmüller
- Center for Observational and Real-World Evidence, MSD, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Eleana Tsoumani
- Center for Observational and Real-World Evidence, MSD, Athens, Greece
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Malene B M, Oyvind H, Tor M, David N M, Jens O, Nanna V K, Jeffrey V. Cost-effectiveness of 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine compared with 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine among adults in a Norwegian setting. COST EFFECTIVENESS AND RESOURCE ALLOCATION 2023; 21:52. [PMID: 37559118 PMCID: PMC10413527 DOI: 10.1186/s12962-023-00458-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2023] [Accepted: 07/21/2023] [Indexed: 08/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The morbidity and mortality of adult diseases caused by S. pneumoniae increase with age and presence of underlying chronic diseases. Currently, two vaccine technologies against S. pneumoniae are used: the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) and the pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, one of which is the 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) that has recently been approved for adults. OBJECTIVE This study was conducted to investigate the cost-effectiveness of implementing PCV20 in a reimbursement scheme for Norwegian adults aged 18-99 years at risk of pneumococcal diseases and those aged 65 years and older at low risk compared to PPV23. METHODS An established Markov model was adapted to a Norwegian setting to estimate the economic and clinical consequences of vaccinating the Norwegian population in specific age and risk groups against pneumococcal diseases. Inputs for the model were found in Norwegian or Danish real-world evidence or retrieved from available studies. The costs and clinical outcomes were assessed using a health sector perspective and a lifetime time horizon. RESULTS The results showed that PCV20 was associated with better health outcomes including fewer disease cases, fewer disease-attributable fatalities, a higher gain of life years and quality-adjusted life years compared to PPV23. In addition, PCV20 had a lower total cost compared to PPV23. Therefore, PCV20 was the dominant vaccination strategy. The base case result was investigated in multiple sensitivity analyses, which showed that the results were robust to changes in input parameters and methodological assumptions, as PCV20 remained the dominant vaccination strategy in almost all scenarios. CONCLUSION Results showed that vaccinating the Norwegian adults with PCV20 was cost-effective compared to PPV23. Changes in the hospital cost of pneumonia, the price of PCV 20, the effectiveness of PCV20 against pneumonia, and the pneumonia disease incidence had the highest impact on the ICER, i.e., were the main drivers of the results.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Husby Oyvind
- Pfizer Norway, Drammensveien 288, Oslo, 0283, Norway
| | - Molden Tor
- Pfizer Norway, Drammensveien 288, Oslo, 0283, Norway
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Zarabi N, Aldvén M, Sjölander S, Fues Wahl H, Bencina G, Johnson KD, Silfverdal SA. Clinical and economic burden of pneumococcal disease among adults in Sweden: A population-based register study. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0287581. [PMID: 37418396 PMCID: PMC10328229 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0287581] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2023] [Accepted: 06/08/2023] [Indexed: 07/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Pneumococcal disease is a major cause of clinical and economic burden worldwide. This study investigated the burden of pneumococcal disease in Swedish adults. A retrospective population-based study was conducted using Swedish national registers, including all adults aged ≥18 years with a diagnosis of pneumococcal disease (defined as pneumococcal pneumonia, meningitis, or septicemia) in inpatient or outpatient specialist care between 2015-2019. Incidence and 30-day case fatality rates, healthcare resource utilization, and costs were estimated. Results were stratified by age (18-64, 65-74, and ≥75 years) and the presence of medical risk factors. A total of 10,391 infections among 9,619 adults were identified. Medical factors associated with higher risk for pneumococcal disease were present in 53% of patients. These factors were associated with increased pneumococcal disease incidence in the youngest cohort. In the cohort aged 65-74 years, having a very high risk for pneumococcal disease was not associated with an increased incidence. Pneumococcal disease incidence was estimated at 12.3 (18-64), 52.1 (64-74), and 85.3 (≥75) per 100,000 population. The 30-day case fatality rate increased with age (18-64: 2.2%, 65-74: 5.4%, ≥75: 11.7%), and was highest among septicemia patients aged ≥75 (21.4%). The 30-day average number of hospitalizations was 1.13 (18-64), 1.24 (64-74) and 1.31 (≥75). The average 30-day cost/infection was estimated at €4,467 (18-64), €5,278 (65-74), and €5,898 (≥75). The 30-day total direct cost of pneumococcal disease between 2015-2019 was €54.2 million, with 95% of costs from hospitalizations. The clinical and economic burden of pneumococcal disease in adults was found to increase with age, with nearly all costs associated with pneumococcal disease from hospitalizations. The 30-day case fatality rate was highest in the oldest age group, though not negligible in the younger age groups. The findings of this study can inform the prioritization of pneumococcal disease prevention in adult and elderly populations.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | - Goran Bencina
- Center for Observational and Real-World Evidence, MSD, Madrid, Spain
| | - Kelly D. Johnson
- Center for Observational and Real-World Evidence, Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, United States of America
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Tsoumani E, Carter JA, Salomonsson S, Stephens JM, Bencina G. Clinical, economic, and humanistic burden of community acquired pneumonia in Europe: a systematic literature review. Expert Rev Vaccines 2023; 22:876-884. [PMID: 37823894 DOI: 10.1080/14760584.2023.2261785] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2023] [Accepted: 09/19/2023] [Indexed: 10/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is an infectious lung inflammation contracted outside the hospital. CAP is a leading cause of death among young children, elderly, and immunocompromised persons. Incidence can reach 14 cases/1,000 adults. Up to 50% of cases require inpatient hospitalization. Mortality is 0.7/1,000 cases or 4 million deaths per year. We sought to summarize multi-dimensional burden of CAP for selected European countries. METHODS We conducted a systematic literature review of literature published from 2011 to 2021 whereby we sought information pertaining to the epidemiologic, clinical, economic, and humanistic burden of CAP. Findings were summarized descriptively. RESULTS CAP incidence in Europe is variable, with the highest burden among those of advanced age and with chronic comorbidities. Etiology is primarily bacterial infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae being the most frequently implicated. Direct medical costs are primarily attributable to inpatient stay, which is exacerbated among high-risk populations. Higher mortality rates are associated with increasing age, the need for inpatient hospitalization, and antibiotic resistance. CONCLUSIONS A better understanding of CAP is needed, specifically the economic and quality of life burden on patients and caregivers. We recommend further assessments using population-level and real-world data employing consistent disease definitions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eleana Tsoumani
- MSD- Center for Observational and Real-world Evidence, Alimos, Greece
| | | | - Stina Salomonsson
- MSD- Center for Observational and Real-world Evidence, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Goran Bencina
- MSD- Center for Observational and Real-world Evidence, Madrid, Spain
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Nymark LS, Dag Berild J, Lyngstad TM, Askeland Winje B, Frimann Vestrheim D, Aaberge I, Juvet LK, Wolff E. Cost-utility analysis of the universal pneumococcal vaccination programme for older adults in Norway. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2022; 18:2101333. [PMID: 35917277 PMCID: PMC9746426 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2022.2101333] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
The aim of this study was to establish whether the universal pneumococcal vaccination for older adults in Norway is likely to be cost-effective from the perspective of the health care provider. A decision tree model developed by the Public Health Agency of Sweden was adapted to the Norwegian setting. Two cohorts, consisting of 65-year-olds and 75-year-olds grouped into vaccinated and unvaccinated, were followed over a 5-year time horizon. In the base case, the 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) was used while the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) was included in scenario analyses only. The costs and health benefits (measured in quality adjusted life years (QALY) gained) were compared in the two cohorts between the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. The impact of indirect effects of the vaccine, such as herd immunity and serotype replacement, were not investigated. The relative importance of change in price was assessed by performing one-way sensitivity analyses. Under base-case assumptions, the programme for the 75-year-old cohort is expected to be dominant (cost-effective) from the health care perspective at the current maximal pharmacy retail price and at 75% vaccination coverage. In comparison, for the 65-year-old cohort the cost per QALY gained is approximately NOK 601,784 (EUR 61,281) under the base-case assumptions. A reduction in the cost of the vaccine to one quarter of its current level also brings the cost per QALY gained within the acceptable ranges in a Norwegian context for both the 65- and 75-year-old cohorts. There is no exact cost-effectiveness threshold in Norway. However, introducing a vaccination programme against pneumococcal disease for 65-year-olds in Norway is likely to fall within the acceptable range while for the 75-year-old cohort the universal programme appears to be dominant (cost-effective).
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Affiliation(s)
- Liv Solvår Nymark
- Division of Infection ControL, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway,CONTACT Liv Solvår Nymark Division of Infection Control, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Postbox 222, Skøyen, NO-0213 Oslo, Norway
| | - Jacob Dag Berild
- Division of Infection ControL, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - Trude Marie Lyngstad
- Division of Infection ControL, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - Brita Askeland Winje
- Division of Infection ControL, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | | | - Ingeborg Aaberge
- Division of Infection ControL, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - Lene Kristine Juvet
- Division of Infection ControL, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - Ellen Wolff
- Department of Public Health Analysis and Data Management, Public Health Agency of Sweden, Solna, Sweden
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Aminuddin F, Zaimi NA, Mohd Nor Sham Kunusagaran MSJ, Bahari MS, Mohd Hassan NZA. Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis of PPV23 vaccination for the Malaysian Hajj pilgrims. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0262949. [PMID: 35073385 PMCID: PMC8786116 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262949] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2021] [Accepted: 01/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
The potential occurrence of disease outbreaks during the hajj season is of great concern due to extreme congestion in a confined space. This promotes the acquisition, spread and transmission of pathogenic microorganisms and pneumococcal disease are one of the most frequent infections among Hajj pilgrims. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of introducing the PPV23 to Malaysian Hajj pilgrims. A decision tree framework with a 1-year cycle length was adapted to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a PPV23 vaccination program with no vaccination. The cost information was retrieved from the Lembaga Tabung Haji Malaysia (LTH) database. Vaccine effectiveness was based on the locally published data and the disease incidence specifically related to Streptococcus pneumoniae was based on a literature search. Analyses were conducted from the perspective of the provider: Ministry of Health and LTH Malaysia. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), cases averted, and net cost savings were estimated. Findings from this study showed that PPV23 vaccination for Malaysian Hajj pilgrims was cost-effective. The PPV23 vaccination programme has an ICER of MYR -449.3 (US$-110.95) per case averted. Based on the national threshold value of US$6,200-US$8,900 per capita, the base-case result shows that introduction of the PPV23 vaccine for Malaysian Hajj pilgrims is very cost-effective. Sensitivity analysis revealed parameters related to annual incidence and hospitalised cost of septicemia and disease without vaccination as the key drivers of the model outputs. Compared with no vaccination, the inclusion of PPV23 vaccination for Malaysian Hajj pilgrims was projected to result in a net cost saving of MYR59.6 million and 109,996 cases averted over 5 years period. The PPV23 vaccination program could substantially offer additional benefits in reducing the pneumococcal disease burden and healthcare cost. This could be of help for policymakers to consider the implementation of PPV23 vaccination for Malaysian performing hajj.
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Affiliation(s)
- Farhana Aminuddin
- Institute for Health Systems Research, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Shah Alam, Malaysia
- * E-mail:
| | - Nur Amalina Zaimi
- Institute for Health Systems Research, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Shah Alam, Malaysia
| | | | - Mohd Shahri Bahari
- Institute for Health Systems Research, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Shah Alam, Malaysia
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Farge G, de Wazières B, Raude J, Delavelle C, Humbert F, Janssen C. The Health Professional's View on the Inclusion of Age in the Recommendations for Pneumococcal Vaccination: Results of a Cross-Sectional Survey in France. Geriatrics (Basel) 2021; 7:geriatrics7010004. [PMID: 35076506 PMCID: PMC8788281 DOI: 10.3390/geriatrics7010004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2021] [Revised: 12/17/2021] [Accepted: 12/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Elderly people are at high risk for pneumococcal infections. However, older age is not an eligibility factor for pneumococcal vaccination in France. Adults with certain co-morbidities or immunocompromised states are eligible for vaccination, which leaves adults aged ≥65 years without comorbidities at-risk for pneumococcal infections. The objective of the study was to evaluate the acceptability to healthcare professionals (HCPs) of extending pneumococcal vaccination to all individuals ≥65 years. Based on themes identified in semi-structured interviews with 24 HCPs, a representative sample of 500 general practitioners and pharmacists were surveyed about their knowledge, attitudes and beliefs with respect to pneumococcal vaccination for individuals ≥65 years. Current recommendations for pneumococcal vaccination are poorly understood by participants (mean score: 5.8/10). Respondents were generally supportive of inclusion of age in vaccination recommendations (7.5/10), with 58% being very supportive. For 72% of HCPs, this would contribute to improved vaccination coverage. The strategy could be facilitated by associating pneumococcal vaccination with the influenza vaccination campaign (8.3/10). Pharmacists were favourable to participating in pneumococcal vaccination (8.5/10). In conclusion, extension of pneumococcal vaccination to all people aged ≥65 years would be welcomed by HCPs, simplifying identification of patients to be vaccinated and potentially improving vaccination coverage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gaëlle Farge
- MSD Vaccins, 69007 Lyon, France; (G.F.); (C.D.); (F.H.)
| | - Benoît de Wazières
- Service de Médecine Interne et Gériatrique, CHU de Nîmes, 30900 Nîmes, France
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +33-4-66-68-68-68
| | - Jocelyn Raude
- École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique, 35043 Rennes, France;
| | | | | | - Cécile Janssen
- Service de Maladies Infectieuses Médecine Interne, CH Annecy-Genevois, 74374 Epagny Metz-Tessy, France;
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Birck AM, Nordin Christensen L, Pedersen MH, Olsen J, Johnson KD, Bencina G, Clausen TH, Larsen CS. Health economic evaluation of introducing a PPSV23-based vaccination programme to adults aged 65 and above, and an extension to the 60-64 age group in Denmark. Expert Rev Vaccines 2021; 20:1327-1337. [PMID: 34488534 DOI: 10.1080/14760584.2021.1977627] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND To estimate the health economic consequences of the recently introduced PPSV23 vaccination programme for persons aged 65+ in Denmark and of a potential extension of the programme to include persons aged 60-64 years. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A Markov model was adapted to the Danish healthcare setting to simulate the epidemiological and economic burden of invasive pneumococcal disease and non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia using information from published sources and Danish databases. RESULTS We found that the recent introduction of an age-based vaccination programme offering PPSV23 vaccination to the population of persons aged 65+ in Denmark will lead to a societal gain of EUR 72.0 million and prevent 19,707 cases of pneumococcal disease and 1,308 deaths per 1 million persons during the five-year study period.Similarly, we estimate that extending the programme to include persons aged 60-64 will lead to a gain of EUR 14.6 million per 1 million persons and prevent an additional 6,223 cases of pneumococcal disease and 185 deaths. CONCLUSION The recent introduction of the age-based vaccination programme offering PPSV23 vaccination to all persons aged 65+ in Denmark is cost-effective. This is also the case if the programme is extended to include persons aged 60-64.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Jens Olsen
- Health Economics and Market Access, Incentive, Holte, Denmark
| | | | | | | | - Carsten Schade Larsen
- Department of Clinical Medicine - Department of Infectious Diseases, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
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Méroc E, Fröberg J, Almasi T, Winje BA, Orrico-Sánchez A, Steens A, McDonald SA, Bollaerts K, Knol MJ. European data sources for computing burden of (potential) vaccine-preventable diseases in ageing adults. BMC Infect Dis 2021; 21:345. [PMID: 33849461 PMCID: PMC8042717 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06017-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2021] [Accepted: 03/24/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To guide decision-making on immunisation programmes for ageing adults in Europe, one of the aims of the Vaccines and InfecTious diseases in the Ageing popuLation (IMI2-VITAL) project is to assess the burden of disease (BoD) of (potentially) vaccine-preventable diseases ((P)VPD). We aimed to identify the available data sources to calculate the BoD of (P)VPD in participating VITAL countries and to pinpoint data gaps. Based on epidemiological criteria and vaccine availability, we prioritized (P) VPD caused by Extra-intestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC), norovirus, respiratory syncytial virus, Staphylococcus aureus, and pneumococcal pneumonia. METHODS We conducted a survey on available data (e.g. incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), quality-adjusted life years (QALY), sequelae, antimicrobial resistance (AMR), etc.) among national experts from European countries, and carried out five pathogen-specific literature reviews by searching MEDLINE for peer-reviewed publications published between 2009 and 2019. RESULTS Morbidity and mortality data were generally available for all five diseases, while summary BoD estimates were mostly lacking. Available data were not always stratified by age and risk group, which is especially important when calculating BoD for ageing adults. AMR data were available in several countries for S. aureus and ExPEC. CONCLUSION This study provides an exhaustive overview of the available data sources and data gaps for the estimation of BoD of five (P) VPD in ageing adults in the EU/EAA, which is useful to guide pathogen-specific BoD studies and contribute to calculation of (P)VPDs BoD.
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Affiliation(s)
- Estelle Méroc
- P95 Epidemiology and Pharmacovigilance, Koning Leopold III laan 1, 3001, Leuven, Belgium.
| | - Janeri Fröberg
- Radboud University Medical Center, Radboud Institute for Molecular Life Sciences, Laboratory of Medical Immunology, Section Paediatric Infectious Diseases, Geert Grooteplein 21, 6525 EZ, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - Timea Almasi
- Syreon Research Institute, Mexikoi str. 65/A, Budapest, 1142, Hungary
| | - Brita Askeland Winje
- Department of Infection Control and Vaccine, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, PO Box 222, Skøyen, 0213, Oslo, Norway
| | - Alejandro Orrico-Sánchez
- Vaccines Research Unit, FISABIO (the Valencia Foundation for the Promotion of Health and Biomedical Research), Av. Catalunya, 21, 46020, Valencia, Spain
| | - Anneke Steens
- Department of Infection Control and Vaccine, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, PO Box 222, Skøyen, 0213, Oslo, Norway
| | - Scott A McDonald
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Kaatje Bollaerts
- P95 Epidemiology and Pharmacovigilance, Koning Leopold III laan 1, 3001, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Mirjam J Knol
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
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