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Jean Baptiste AE, Wagai J, Hahné S, Adeniran A, Koko RI, de Vos S, Shibeshi M, Sanders EAM, Masresha B, Hak E. High-Resolution Geospatial Mapping of Zero-Dose and Underimmunized Children Following Nigeria's 2021 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey/National Immunization Coverage Survey. J Infect Dis 2024; 230:e131-e138. [PMID: 39052714 PMCID: PMC11272093 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiad476] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2023] [Revised: 10/06/2023] [Accepted: 10/27/2023] [Indexed: 11/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND "Zero-dose" children are those who are without any routine vaccination or are lacking the first dose of the diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis-containing vaccine. Based on global estimates from the World Health Organization/United Nations Children's Fund in 2022, Nigeria has the highest number of zero-dose children, with >2.3 million unvaccinated. METHODS We used data from the 2021 Nigeria Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey/National Immunization Coverage Survey to identify zero-dose and underimmunized children. Geospatial modeling techniques were employed to determine the prevalence of zero-dose children and predict risk areas with underimmunized children at a high resolution (1 × 1 km). RESULTS Zero-dose and underimmunized children are more prevalent in socially deprived groups. Univariate and multivariate bayesian analyses showed positive correlations between the prevalence of zero-dose and underimmunized children and factors such as stunting, contraceptive prevalence, and literacy. The prevalence of zero-dose and underimmunized children varies significantly by region and ethnicity, with higher rates observed in the country's northern parts. Significant heterogeneity in the distribution of undervaccinated children was observed. CONCLUSIONS Nigeria needs to enhance its immunization system and coverage. Geospatial modeling can help deliver vaccines effectively to underserved communities. By adopting this approach, countries can ensure equitable vaccine access and contribute to global vaccination objectives.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - John Wagai
- Country Office, World Health Organization, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Susan Hahné
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | | | | | - Stijn de Vos
- Groningen Research Institute of Pharmacy, University of Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Messeret Shibeshi
- African Regional Office, World Health Organization, Brazzaville, Congo
| | - E A M Sanders
- Department of Paediatric Immunology and Infectious Diseases, University Medical Centre Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Balcha Masresha
- African Regional Office, World Health Organization, Brazzaville, Congo
| | - Eelko Hak
- Groningen Research Institute of Pharmacy, University of Groningen, the Netherlands
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2
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Frey K. Congenital Rubella Syndrome Does Not Increase with Introduction of Rubella-Containing Vaccine. Vaccines (Basel) 2024; 12:811. [PMID: 39066449 PMCID: PMC11281554 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines12070811] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2024] [Revised: 06/24/2024] [Accepted: 07/10/2024] [Indexed: 07/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Rubella infection is typically mild or asymptomatic except when infection occurs during pregnancy. Infection in early pregnancy can cause miscarriage, stillbirth, or congenital rubella syndrome. Only individuals that are still susceptible to rubella infection during child-bearing age are vulnerable to this burden. Rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) is safe and effective, providing life-long immunity. However, average age-at-infection increases with increasing vaccination coverage, which could potentially lead to increased disease burden if the absolute risk of infection during child-bearing age increases. The dynamics of rubella transmission were explored using EMOD, a software tool for building stochastic, agent-based infection models. Simulations of pre-vaccine, endemic transmission of rubella virus introduced RCV at varying levels of coverage to determine the expected future trajectories of disease burden. Introducing RCV reduces both rubella virus transmission and disease burden for a period of around 15 years. Increased disease burden is only possible more than a decade post-introduction, and only for contexts with persistently high transmission intensity. Low or declining rubella virus transmission intensity is associated with both greater burden without vaccination and greater burden reduction with vaccination. The risk of resurgent burden due to incomplete vaccination only exists for locations with persistently high infectivity, high connectivity, and high fertility. A trade-off between the risk of a small, future burden increase versus a large, immediate burden decrease strongly favors RCV introduction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kurt Frey
- Institute for Disease Modeling, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
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3
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Rodriguez-Cartes SA, Zhang Y, Mayorga ME, Swann JL, Allaire BT. Evaluating the potential impact of rubella-containing vaccine introduction on congenital rubella syndrome in Afghanistan, Dem. Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Pakistan: A mathematical modeling study. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2024; 4:e0002656. [PMID: 38227558 PMCID: PMC10791005 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0002656] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2023] [Accepted: 11/30/2023] [Indexed: 01/18/2024]
Abstract
We assessed the potential impact of introducing rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) on congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) incidence in Afghanistan (AFG), Democratic Republic of Congo (COD), Ethiopia (ETH), Nigeria (NGA), and Pakistan (PAK). We simulated several RCV introduction scenarios over 30 years using a validated mathematical model. Our findings indicate that RCV introduction could avert between 86,000 and 535,000 CRS births, preventing 2.5 to 15.8 million disability-adjusted life years. AFG and PAK could reduce about 90% of CRS births by introducing RCV with current measles routine coverage and executing supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). However, COD, NGA, and ETH must increase their current routine vaccination coverage to reduce CRS incidence significantly. This study showcases the potential benefits of RCV introduction and reinforces the need for global action to strengthen immunization programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sebastian A. Rodriguez-Cartes
- Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Yiwei Zhang
- Operations Research Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Maria E. Mayorga
- Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
- Operations Research Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Julie L. Swann
- Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
- Operations Research Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Benjamin T. Allaire
- RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, United States of America
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4
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Muhoza P, Shah MP, Gao H, Amponsa-Achiano K, Quaye P, Opare W, Okae C, Aboyinga PN, Opare KL, Wardle MT, Wallace AS. Predictors for Uptake of Vaccines Offered during the Second Year of Life: Second Dose of Measles-Containing Vaccine and Meningococcal Serogroup A-Containing Vaccine, Ghana, 2020. Vaccines (Basel) 2023; 11:1515. [PMID: 37896919 PMCID: PMC10611024 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines11101515] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2023] [Revised: 09/09/2023] [Accepted: 09/18/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding the drivers of coverage for vaccines offered in the second year of life (2YL) is a critical focus area for Ghana's life course approach to vaccination. This study characterizes the predictors of vaccine receipt for 2YL vaccines-meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MACV) and the second dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV2)-in Ghana. METHODS 1522 children aged 18-35 months were randomly sampled through household surveys in the Greater Accra Region (GAR), Northern Region (NR), and Volta Region (VR). The association between predictors and vaccination status was modeled using logistic regression with backwards elimination procedures. Predictors included child, caregiver, and household characteristics. RESULTS Coverage was high for infant vaccines (>85%) but lower for 2YL vaccines (ranging from 60.2% for MACV in GAR to 82.8% for MCV2 in VR). Predictors of vaccination status varied by region. Generally, older, first-born children, those living in rural settlements and those who received their recommended infant vaccines by their first birthday were the most likely to have received 2YL vaccines. Uptake was higher among those with older mothers and children whose caregivers were aware of the vaccination schedule. CONCLUSIONS Improving infant immunization uptake through increased community awareness and targeted strategies, such as parental reminders about vaccination visits, may improve 2YL vaccination coverage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pierre Muhoza
- Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329, USA
- Epidemic Intelligence Service, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329, USA
| | - Monica P. Shah
- Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329, USA
| | - Hongjiang Gao
- Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329, USA
| | - Kwame Amponsa-Achiano
- Expanded Programme on Immunisation, Disease Control and Prevention Department, Public Health Division, Ghana Health Service, Accra 00233, Ghana
| | - Pamela Quaye
- Expanded Programme on Immunisation, Disease Control and Prevention Department, Public Health Division, Ghana Health Service, Accra 00233, Ghana
| | - William Opare
- Expanded Programme on Immunisation, Disease Control and Prevention Department, Public Health Division, Ghana Health Service, Accra 00233, Ghana
| | - Charlotte Okae
- Expanded Programme on Immunisation, Disease Control and Prevention Department, Public Health Division, Ghana Health Service, Accra 00233, Ghana
| | - Philip-Neri Aboyinga
- Expanded Programme on Immunisation, Disease Control and Prevention Department, Public Health Division, Ghana Health Service, Accra 00233, Ghana
| | - Kwadwo L. Opare
- Neglected Tropical Diseases Control Programme, Disease Control and Prevention Department, Public Health Division, Ghana Health Service, Accra 00233, Ghana
| | - Melissa T. Wardle
- Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329, USA
| | - Aaron S. Wallace
- Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329, USA
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5
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Carcelen AC, Winter AK. Comparing the tradeoffs of measles vaccine delivery strategies. Lancet Glob Health 2023; 11:e1140-e1141. [PMID: 37474209 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(23)00260-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2023] [Accepted: 05/31/2023] [Indexed: 07/22/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Andrea C Carcelen
- Department of International Health, International Vaccine Access Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.
| | - Amy K Winter
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
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6
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Auzenbergs M, Fu H, Abbas K, Procter SR, Cutts FT, Jit M. Health effects of routine measles vaccination and supplementary immunisation activities in 14 high-burden countries: a Dynamic Measles Immunization Calculation Engine (DynaMICE) modelling study. Lancet Glob Health 2023; 11:e1194-e1204. [PMID: 37474227 PMCID: PMC10369016 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(23)00220-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/08/2022] [Revised: 04/17/2023] [Accepted: 05/02/2023] [Indexed: 07/22/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND WHO recommends at least 95% population coverage with two doses of measles-containing vaccine (MCV). Most countries worldwide use routine services to offer a first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) and later, a second dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV2). Many countries worldwide conduct supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs), offering vaccination to all people in a specific age range irrespective of previous vaccination history. We aimed to estimate the relative effects of each dose and delivery route in 14 countries with high measles burden. METHODS We used an age-structured compartmental dynamic model, the Dynamic Measles Immunization Calculation Engine (DynaMICE), to assess the effects of different vaccination strategies on measles susceptibility and burden during 2000-20 in 14 countries with high measles incidence (containing 53% of the global birth cohort and 78% of the global measles burden). Country-specific routine MCV1 and MCV2 coverage data during 1980-2020 were obtained from the WHO and UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage database for all modelled countries and SIA data were obtained from the WHO summary of measles and rubella SIAs. We estimated the incremental health effects of different vaccination strategies using prevented cases of measles and deaths from measles and their efficiency using the incremental number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent an additional measles case. FINDINGS Compared with no vaccination, MCV1 implementation was estimated to have prevented 824 million cases of measles and 9·6 million deaths from measles, with a median NNV of 1·41 (IQR 1·35-1·44). Adding routine MCV2 to MCV1 was estimated to have prevented 108 million cases and 404 270 deaths, whereas adding SIAs to MCV1 was estimated to have prevented 256 million cases and 4·4 million deaths. Despite larger incremental effects, adding SIAs to MCV1 (median incremental NNV 6·02, 5·30-7·68) showed reduced efficiency compared with adding routine MCV2 (5·41, 4·76-6·11). INTERPRETATION Vaccination strategies, including non-selective SIAs, reach a greater proportion of children who are unvaccinated and reduce measles burden more than MCV2 alone, but efficiency is lower because of the wide age range targeted by SIAs. This analysis provides information to help improve the health effects and efficiency of measles vaccination strategies. The interplay between MCV1, MCV2, and SIAs should be considered when planning future measles vaccination strategies. FUNDING Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Megan Auzenbergs
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
| | - Han Fu
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kaja Abbas
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India
| | - Simon R Procter
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Felicity T Cutts
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Mark Jit
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
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7
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Prosperi C, Thangaraj J, Hasan A, Kumar M, Truelove S, Kumar V, Winter A, Bansal A, Chauhan S, Grover G, Jain A, Kulkarni R, Sharma S, Soman B, Chaaithanya I, Kharwal S, Mishra S, Salvi N, Sharma N, Sharma S, Varghese A, Sabarinathan R, Duraiswamy A, Rani D, Kanagasabai K, Lachyan A, Gawali P, Kapoor M, Chonker S, Cutts F, Sangal L, Mehendale S, Sapkal G, Gupta N, Hayford K, Moss W, Murhekar M. Added value of the measles-rubella supplementary immunization activity in reaching unvaccinated and under-vaccinated children, a cross-sectional study in five Indian districts, 2018-20. Vaccine 2023; 41:486-495. [PMID: 36481106 PMCID: PMC9831119 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.11.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2022] [Revised: 10/29/2022] [Accepted: 11/04/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) aim to interrupt measles transmission by reaching susceptible children, including children who have not received the recommended two routine doses of MCV before the SIA. However, both strategies may miss the same children if vaccine doses are highly correlated. How well SIAs reach children missed by routine immunization is a key metric in assessing the added value of SIAs. METHODS Children aged 9 months to younger than 5 years were enrolled in cross-sectional household serosurveys conducted in five districts in India following the 2017-2019 measles-rubella (MR) SIA. History of measles containing vaccine (MCV) through routine services or SIA was obtained from documents and verbal recall. Receipt of a first or second MCV dose during the SIA was categorized as "added value" of the SIA in reaching un- and under-vaccinated children. RESULTS A total of 1,675 children were enrolled in these post-SIA surveys. The percentage of children receiving a 1st or 2nd dose through the SIA ranged from 12.8% in Thiruvananthapuram District to 48.6% in Dibrugarh District. Although the number of zero-dose children prior to the SIA was small in most sites, the proportion reached by the SIA ranged from 45.8% in Thiruvananthapuram District to 94.9% in Dibrugarh District. Fewer than 7% of children remained measles zero-dose after the MR SIA (range: 1.1-6.4%) compared to up to 28% before the SIA (range: 7.3-28.1%). DISCUSSION We demonstrated the MR SIA provided considerable added value in terms of measles vaccination coverage, although there was variability across districts due to differences in routine and SIA coverage, and which children were reached by the SIA. Metrics evaluating the added value of an SIA can help to inform the design of vaccination strategies to better reach zero-dose or undervaccinated children.
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Affiliation(s)
- C. Prosperi
- International Vaccine Access Center, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - J.W.V. Thangaraj
- Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR)-National Institute of Epidemiology, Chennai, India
| | - A.Z. Hasan
- International Vaccine Access Center, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - M.S. Kumar
- Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR)-National Institute of Epidemiology, Chennai, India
| | - S. Truelove
- International Vaccine Access Center, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA,Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - V.S. Kumar
- Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR)-National Institute of Epidemiology, Chennai, India
| | - A.K. Winter
- International Vaccine Access Center, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA,Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - A.K. Bansal
- ICMR-National JALMA Institute for Leprosy & Other Mycobacterial Diseases, Agra, India
| | - S.L. Chauhan
- ICMR- National Institute for Research in Reproductive and Child Health (NIRRCH), Mumbai, India
| | - G.S. Grover
- Directorate of Health Services, Government of Punjab, Chandigarh, India
| | - A.K. Jain
- ICMR-National Institute of Pathology, New Delhi, India
| | - R.N. Kulkarni
- ICMR- National Institute for Research in Reproductive and Child Health (NIRRCH), Mumbai, India
| | - S.K. Sharma
- ICMR-Regional Medical Research Centre, NE Region, Dibrugarh, India
| | - B. Soman
- Achutha Menon Centre for Health Science Studies, Sree Chitra Tirunal Institute for Medical Sciences and Technology, Trivandrum, Kerala, India
| | - I.K. Chaaithanya
- Department of Health Research, Model Rural Health Research Unit-Dahanu, Maharashtra, India
| | - S. Kharwal
- Department of Health Research, Model Rural Health Research Unit-Hoshiarpur, Punjab, India
| | - S.K. Mishra
- Department of Health Research, Model Rural Health Research Unit-Hoshiarpur, Punjab, India
| | - N.R. Salvi
- Department of Health Research, Model Rural Health Research Unit-Dahanu, Maharashtra, India
| | - N.P. Sharma
- Department of Health Research, Model Rural Health Research Unit-Chabua, Assam, India
| | - S. Sharma
- Department of Health Research, Model Rural Health Research Unit-Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh, India
| | - A. Varghese
- Achutha Menon Centre for Health Science Studies, Sree Chitra Tirunal Institute for Medical Sciences and Technology, Trivandrum, Kerala, India
| | - R. Sabarinathan
- Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR)-National Institute of Epidemiology, Chennai, India
| | - A. Duraiswamy
- Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR)-National Institute of Epidemiology, Chennai, India
| | - D.S. Rani
- Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR)-National Institute of Epidemiology, Chennai, India
| | - K. Kanagasabai
- Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR)-National Institute of Epidemiology, Chennai, India
| | - A. Lachyan
- Department of Health Research, Model Rural Health Research Unit-Dahanu, Maharashtra, India
| | - P. Gawali
- Department of Health Research, Model Rural Health Research Unit-Dahanu, Maharashtra, India
| | - M. Kapoor
- Department of Health Research, Model Rural Health Research Unit-Dahanu, Maharashtra, India
| | - S.K. Chonker
- Department of Health Research, Model Rural Health Research Unit-Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh, India
| | - F.T. Cutts
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - L. Sangal
- World Health Organization, Southeast Asia Region Office, New Delhi, India
| | - S.M. Mehendale
- PD Hinduja Hospital and Medical Research Centre, Mumbai, India
| | - G.N. Sapkal
- ICMR-National Institute of Virology, Pune, India
| | - N. Gupta
- Division of Epidemiology and Communicable Diseases, Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India
| | - K. Hayford
- International Vaccine Access Center, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - W.J. Moss
- International Vaccine Access Center, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA,Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA,Corresponding author at: International Vaccine Access Center, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
| | - M.V. Murhekar
- Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR)-National Institute of Epidemiology, Chennai, India
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Utazi CE, Aheto JMK, Wigley A, Tejedor-Garavito N, Bonnie A, Nnanatu CC, Wagai J, Williams C, Setayesh H, Tatem AJ, Cutts FT. Mapping the distribution of zero-dose children to assess the performance of vaccine delivery strategies and their relationships with measles incidence in Nigeria. Vaccine 2023; 41:170-181. [PMID: 36414476 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.11.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2022] [Revised: 10/19/2022] [Accepted: 11/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
Geographically precise identification and targeting of populations at risk of vaccine-preventable diseases has gained renewed attention within the global health community over the last few years. District level estimates of vaccination coverage and corresponding zero-dose prevalence constitute a potentially useful evidence base to evaluate the performance of vaccination strategies. These estimates are also valuable for identifying missed communities, hence enabling targeted interventions and better resource allocation. Here, we fit Bayesian geostatistical models to map the routine coverage of the first doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (DTP1) and measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) and corresponding zero-dose estimates in Nigeria at 1x1 km resolution and the district level using geospatial data sets. We also map MCV1 coverage before and after the 2019 measles vaccination campaign in the northern states to further explore variations in routine vaccine coverage and to evaluate the effectiveness of both routine immunization (RI) and campaigns in reaching zero-dose children. Additionally, we map the spatial distributions of reported measles cases during 2018 to 2020 and explore their relationships with MCV zero-dose prevalence to highlight the public health implications of varying performance of vaccination strategies across the country. Our analysis revealed strong similarities between the spatial distributions of DTP and MCV zero dose prevalence, with districts with the highest prevalence concentrated mostly in the northwest and the northeast, but also in other areas such as Lagos state and the Federal Capital Territory. Although the 2019 campaign reduced MCV zero-dose prevalence substantially in the north, pockets of vulnerabilities remained in areas that had among the highest prevalence prior to the campaign. Importantly, we found strong correlations between measles case counts and MCV RI zero-dose estimates, which provides a strong indication that measles incidence in the country is mostly affected by RI coverage. Our analyses reveal an urgent and highly significant need to strengthen the country's RI program as a longer-term measure for disease control, whilst ensuring effective campaigns in the short term.
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Affiliation(s)
- C Edson Utazi
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK; Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK; Department of Statistics, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka PMB 5025, Nigeria.
| | - Justice M K Aheto
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana
| | - Adelle Wigley
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Natalia Tejedor-Garavito
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Amy Bonnie
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Christopher C Nnanatu
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK; Department of Statistics, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka PMB 5025, Nigeria
| | - John Wagai
- World Health Organization Consultant, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Cheryl Williams
- U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Nigeria Country Office, Abuja, Nigeria
| | | | - Andrew J Tatem
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Felicity T Cutts
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
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9
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Kostandova N, Loisate S, Winter A, Moss WJ, Giles JR, Metcalf CJE, Mutembo S, Wesolowski A. Impact of disruptions to routine vaccination programs, quantifying burden of measles, and mapping targeted supplementary immunization activities. Epidemics 2022; 41:100647. [PMID: 36343498 PMCID: PMC9742850 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100647] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2021] [Revised: 09/27/2022] [Accepted: 10/21/2022] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Measles is a highly transmissible disease that requires high levels of vaccination coverage for control and elimination. Areas that are unable to achieve and maintain high coverage levels are at risk for measles outbreaks resulting in increased morbidity and mortality. Public health emergencies, such as the current COVID-19 pandemic, pose a threat to the functioning of health systems by disrupting immunization services which can derail measles vaccination efforts. Efforts to bridge coverage gaps in immunization include the rapid return to fully functioning services as well as deploying supplementary immunization activities (SIAs), which are additional vaccination campaigns intended to catch-up children who have missed routine services. However, SIAs, which to date tend to be national efforts, can be difficult to mobilize quickly, resource-intensive, and even more challenging to deploy during a public health crisis. By mapping expected burden of measles, more effective SIAs that are setting-specific and resource-efficient can be planned and mobilized. Using a spatial transmission model of measles dynamics, we projected and estimated the expected burden of national and local measles outbreaks in Zambia with the current COVID-19 pandemic as a framework to inform disruptions to routine vaccination. We characterize the impact of disruptions to routine immunization services on measles incidence, map expected case burden, and explore SIA strategies to mitigate measles outbreaks. We find that disruptions lasting six months or longer as well as having low MCV1 coverage prior to disruptions resulted in an observable increase of measles cases across provinces. Targeting provinces at higher risk of measles outbreaks for SIAs is an effective strategy to curb measles virus incidence following disruptions to routine immunization services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natalya Kostandova
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
| | - Stacie Loisate
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Amy Winter
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | - William J Moss
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA; Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - John R Giles
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - C J E Metcalf
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Simon Mutembo
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA; Ministry of Health, Government of the Republic of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Amy Wesolowski
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
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10
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Tatem AJ. Small area population denominators for improved disease surveillance and response. Epidemics 2022; 41:100641. [PMID: 36228440 PMCID: PMC9534780 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100641] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2022] [Revised: 05/12/2022] [Accepted: 10/04/2022] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
The Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the value of strong surveillance systems in supporting our abilities to respond rapidly and effectively in mitigating the impacts of infectious diseases. A cornerstone of such systems is basic subnational scale data on populations and their demographics, which enable the scale of outbreaks to be assessed, risk to specific groups to be determined and appropriate interventions to be designed. Ongoing weaknesses and gaps in such data have however been highlighted by the pandemic. These can include outdated or inaccurate census data and a lack of administrative and registry systems to update numbers, particularly in low and middle income settings. Efforts to design and implement globally consistent geospatial modelling methods for the production of small area demographic data that can be flexibly integrated into health-focussed surveillance and information systems have been made, but these often remain based on outdated population data or uncertain projections. In recent years, efforts have been made to capitalise on advances in computing power, satellite imagery and new forms of digital data to construct methods for estimating small area population distributions across national and regional scales in the absence of full enumeration. These are starting to be used to complement more traditional data collection approaches, especially in the delivery of health interventions, but barriers remain to their widespread adoption and use in disease surveillance and response. Here an overview of these approaches is presented, together with discussion of future directions and needs.
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Affiliation(s)
- A J Tatem
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, UK
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11
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Tatem AJ. Small area population denominators for improved disease surveillance and response. Epidemics 2022; 40:100597. [PMID: 35749928 PMCID: PMC9212890 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100597] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2022] [Accepted: 06/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
The Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the value of strong surveillance systems in supporting our abilities to respond rapidly and effectively in mitigating the impacts of infectious diseases. A cornerstone of such systems is basic subnational scale data on populations and their demographics, which enable the scale of outbreaks to be assessed, risk to specific groups to be determined and appropriate interventions to be designed. Ongoing weaknesses and gaps in such data have however been highlighted by the pandemic. These can include outdated or inaccurate census data and a lack of administrative and registry systems to update numbers, particularly in low and middle income settings. Efforts to design and implement globally consistent geospatial modelling methods for the production of small area demographic data that can be flexibly integrated into health-focussed surveillance and information systems have been made, but these often remain based on outdated population data or uncertain projections. In recent years, efforts have been made to capitalise on advances in computing power, satellite imagery and new forms of digital data to construct methods for estimating small area population distributions across national and regional scales in the absence of full enumeration. These are starting to be used to complement more traditional data collection approaches, especially in the delivery of health interventions, but barriers remain to their widespread adoption and use in disease surveillance and response. Here an overview of these approaches is presented, together with discussion of future directions and needs.
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Affiliation(s)
- A J Tatem
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, UK
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12
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Bergen N, Cata-Preta BO, Schlotheuber A, Santos TM, Danovaro-Holliday MC, Mengistu T, Sodha SV, Hogan DR, Barros AJD, Hosseinpoor AR. Economic-Related Inequalities in Zero-Dose Children: A Study of Non-Receipt of Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis Immunization Using Household Health Survey Data from 89 Low- and Middle-Income Countries. Vaccines (Basel) 2022; 10:vaccines10040633. [PMID: 35455382 PMCID: PMC9028918 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines10040633] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2022] [Revised: 04/11/2022] [Accepted: 04/12/2022] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Despite advances in scaling up new vaccines in low- and middle-income countries, the global number of unvaccinated children has remained high over the past decade. We used 2000–2019 household survey data from 154 surveys representing 89 low- and middle-income countries to assess within-country, economic-related inequality in the prevalence of one-year-old children with zero doses of diphtheria–tetanus–pertussis (DTP) vaccine. Zero-dose DTP prevalence data were disaggregated by household wealth quintile. Difference, ratio, slope index of inequality, concentration index, and excess change measures were calculated to assess the latest situation and change over time, by country income grouping for 17 countries with high zero-dose DTP numbers and prevalence. Across 89 countries, the median prevalence of zero-dose DTP was 7.6%. Within-country inequalities mostly favored the richest quintile, with 19 of 89 countries reporting a rich–poor gap of ≥20.0 percentage points. Low-income countries had higher inequality than lower–middle-income countries and upper–middle-income countries (difference between the median prevalence in the poorest and richest quintiles: 14.4, 8.9, and 2.7 percentage points, respectively). Zero-dose DTP prevalence among the poorest households of low-income countries declined between 2000 and 2009 and between 2010 and 2019, yet economic-related inequality remained high in many countries. Widespread economic-related inequalities in zero-dose DTP prevalence are particularly pronounced in low-income countries and have remained high over the previous decade.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicole Bergen
- Department of Data and Analytics, World Health Organization, 20 Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva, Switzerland; (N.B.); (A.S.)
| | - Bianca O. Cata-Preta
- International Center for Equity in Health, Federal University of Pelotas, Rua Mal Deodoro 1160, Pelotas 96020-220, Brazil; (B.O.C.-P.); (T.M.S.); (A.J.D.B.)
| | - Anne Schlotheuber
- Department of Data and Analytics, World Health Organization, 20 Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva, Switzerland; (N.B.); (A.S.)
| | - Thiago M. Santos
- International Center for Equity in Health, Federal University of Pelotas, Rua Mal Deodoro 1160, Pelotas 96020-220, Brazil; (B.O.C.-P.); (T.M.S.); (A.J.D.B.)
| | - M. Carolina Danovaro-Holliday
- Department of Immunization, Vaccines and Biologicals, World Health Organization, 20 Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva, Switzerland; (M.C.D.-H.); (S.V.S.)
| | - Tewodaj Mengistu
- Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, 40 Chemin du Pommier, 1218 Geneva, Switzerland; (T.M.); (D.R.H.)
| | - Samir V. Sodha
- Department of Immunization, Vaccines and Biologicals, World Health Organization, 20 Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva, Switzerland; (M.C.D.-H.); (S.V.S.)
| | - Daniel R. Hogan
- Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, 40 Chemin du Pommier, 1218 Geneva, Switzerland; (T.M.); (D.R.H.)
| | - Aluisio J. D. Barros
- International Center for Equity in Health, Federal University of Pelotas, Rua Mal Deodoro 1160, Pelotas 96020-220, Brazil; (B.O.C.-P.); (T.M.S.); (A.J.D.B.)
| | - Ahmad Reza Hosseinpoor
- Department of Data and Analytics, World Health Organization, 20 Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva, Switzerland; (N.B.); (A.S.)
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +41-22-791-3205
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Abstract
Measles is a highly contagious, potentially fatal, but vaccine-preventable disease caused by measles virus. Symptoms include fever, maculopapular rash, and at least one of cough, coryza, or conjunctivitis, although vaccinated individuals can have milder or even no symptoms. Laboratory diagnosis relies largely on the detection of specific IgM antibodies in serum, dried blood spots, or oral fluid, or the detection of viral RNA in throat or nasopharyngeal swabs, urine, or oral fluid. Complications can affect many organs and often include otitis media, laryngotracheobronchitis, pneumonia, stomatitis, and diarrhoea. Neurological complications are uncommon but serious, and can occur during or soon after the acute disease (eg, acute disseminated encephalomyelitis) or months or even years later (eg, measles inclusion body encephalitis and subacute sclerosing panencephalitis). Patient management mainly involves supportive therapy, such as vitamin A supplementation, monitoring for and treatment of secondary bacterial infections with antibiotics, and rehydration in the case of severe diarrhoea. There is no specific antiviral therapy for the treatment of measles, and disease control largely depends on prevention. However, despite the availability of a safe and effective vaccine, measles is still endemic in many countries and causes considerable morbidity and mortality, especially among children in resource-poor settings. The low case numbers reported in 2020, after a worldwide resurgence of measles between 2017 and 2019, have to be interpreted cautiously, owing to the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on disease surveillance. Disrupted vaccination activities during the pandemic increase the potential for another resurgence of measles in the near future, and effective, timely catch-up vaccination campaigns, strong commitment and leadership, and sufficient resources will be required to mitigate this threat.
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Affiliation(s)
- Judith M Hübschen
- Department of Infection and Immunity, Luxembourg Institute of Health, Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg.
| | - Ionela Gouandjika-Vasilache
- Laboratoire des Virus Entériques et de la Rougeole, Institut Pasteur de Bangui, Bangui, Central African Republic
| | - Julia Dina
- Virology Department, Normandie University, UNICAEN, INSERM U1311 DynaMicURe, Caen University Hospital, Caen, France
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Progress in reaching unvaccinated (zero-dose) children in India, 1992–2016: a multilevel, geospatial analysis of repeated cross-sectional surveys. THE LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH 2021; 9:e1697-e1706. [DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(21)00349-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2021] [Revised: 07/13/2021] [Accepted: 07/23/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
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15
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Arambepola R, Yang Y, Hutchinson K, Mwansa FD, Doherty JA, Bwalya F, Ndubani P, Musukwa G, Moss WJ, Wesolowski A, Mutembo S. Using geospatial models to map zero-dose children: factors associated with zero-dose vaccination status before and after a mass measles and rubella vaccination campaign in Southern province, Zambia. BMJ Glob Health 2021; 6:e007479. [PMID: 34969682 PMCID: PMC8719156 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-007479] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2021] [Accepted: 12/07/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Despite gains in global coverage of childhood vaccines, many children remain undervaccinated. Although mass vaccination campaigns are commonly conducted to reach these children their effectiveness is unclear. We evaluated the effectiveness of a mass vaccination campaign in reaching zero-dose children. METHODS We conducted a prospective study in 10 health centre catchment areas in Southern province, Zambia in November 2020. About 2 months before a national mass measles and rubella vaccination campaign conducted by the Ministry of Health, we used aerial satellite maps to identify built structures. These structures were visited and diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) and measles zero-dose children were identified (children who had not received any DTP or measles-containing vaccines, respectively). After the campaign, households where measles zero-dose children were previously identified were targeted for mop-up vaccination and to assess if these children were vaccinated during the campaign. A Bayesian geospatial model was used to identify factors associated with zero-dose status and measles zero-dose children being reached during the campaign. We also produced fine-scale zero-dose prevalence maps and identified optimal locations for additional vaccination sites. RESULTS Before the vaccination campaign, 17.3% of children under 9 months were DTP zero-dose and 4.3% of children 9-60 months were measles zero-dose. Of the 461 measles zero-dose children identified before the vaccination campaign, 338 (73.3%) were vaccinated during the campaign and 118 (25.6%) were reached by a targeted mop-up activity. The presence of other children in the household, younger age, greater travel time to health facilities and living between health facility catchment areas were associated with zero-dose status. Mapping zero-dose prevalence revealed substantial heterogeneity within and between catchment areas. Several potential locations were identified for additional vaccination sites. CONCLUSION Fine-scale variation in zero-dose prevalence and the impact of accessibility to healthcare facilities on vaccination coverage were identified. Geospatial modelling can aid targeted vaccination activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rohan Arambepola
- Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Yangyupei Yang
- International Vaccine Access Center, International Health, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Francis Dien Mwansa
- Directorate of Public Health and Research, Zambia Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia
| | | | | | | | - Gloria Musukwa
- Choma General Hospital, Zambia Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - William John Moss
- Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
- International Vaccine Access Center, International Health, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Amy Wesolowski
- Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Simon Mutembo
- International Vaccine Access Center, International Health, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
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Wagai JN, Rhoda D, Prier M, Trimmer MK, Clary CB, Oteri J, Okposen B, Adeniran A, Danovaro-Holliday C, Cutts F. Implementing WHO guidance on conducting and analysing vaccination coverage cluster surveys: Two examples from Nigeria. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0247415. [PMID: 33635913 PMCID: PMC7909665 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0247415] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2020] [Accepted: 02/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
In 2015, the World Health Organization substantially revised its guidance for vaccination coverage cluster surveys (revisions were finalized in 2018) and has since developed a set of accompanying resources, including definitions for standardized coverage indicators and software (named the Vaccination Coverage Quality Indicators—VCQI) to calculate them.–The current WHO vaccination coverage survey manual was used to design and conduct two nationally representative vaccination coverage surveys in Nigeria–one to assess routine immunization and one to measure post-measles campaign coverage. The primary analysis for both surveys was conducted using VCQI. In this paper, we describe those surveys and highlight some of the analyses that are facilitated by the new resources. In addition to calculating coverage of each vaccine-dose by age group, VCQI analyses provide insight into several indicators of program quality such as crude coverage versus valid doses, vaccination timeliness, missed opportunities for simultaneous vaccination, and, where relevant, vaccination campaign coverage stratified by several parameters, including the number of previous doses received. The VCQI software furnishes several helpful ways to visualize survey results. We show that routine coverage of all vaccines is far below targets in Nigeria and especially low in northeast and northwest zones, which also have highest rates of dropout and missed opportunities for vaccination. Coverage in the 2017 measles campaign was higher and showed less geospatial variation than routine coverage. Nonetheless, substantial improvement in both routine program performance and campaign implementation will be needed to achieve disease control goals.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Dale Rhoda
- Biostat Global Consulting, Worthington, OH, United States of America
| | - Mary Prier
- Biostat Global Consulting, Worthington, OH, United States of America
| | - Mary Kay Trimmer
- Biostat Global Consulting, Worthington, OH, United States of America
| | - Caitlin B. Clary
- Biostat Global Consulting, Worthington, OH, United States of America
| | - Joseph Oteri
- National Primary Health Care Development Agency, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Bassey Okposen
- National Primary Health Care Development Agency, Abuja, Nigeria
| | | | | | - Felicity Cutts
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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