Capturing the value of vaccination within health technology assessment and health economics: Country analysis and priority value concepts

The macroeconomic impact of a dengue outbreak: Case studies from Thailand and Brazil

BACKGROUND

Dengue is spreading in (sub)tropical areas, and half of the global population is at risk. The macroeconomic impact of dengue extends beyond healthcare costs. This study evaluated the impact of dengue on gross domestic product (GDP) based on approaches tailored to two dengue-endemic countries, Thailand and Brazil, from the tourism and workforce perspectives, respectively.

FINDINGS

Because the tourism industry is a critical economic sector for Thailand, lost tourism revenues were estimated to analyze the impact of a dengue outbreak. An input-output model estimated that the direct effects (on international tourism) and indirect effects (on suppliers) of dengue on tourism reduced overall GDP by 1.43 billion US dollars (USD) (0.26%) in the outbreak year 2019. The induced effect (reduced employee income/spending) reduced Thailand's GDP by 375 million USD (0.07%). Overall, lost tourism revenues reduced Thailand's GDP by an estimated 1.81 billion USD (0.33%) in 2019 (3% of annual tourism revenue). An inoperability input-output model was used to analyze the effect of workforce absenteeism on GDP due to a dengue outbreak in Brazil. This model calculates the number of lost workdays associated with ambulatory and hospitalized dengue. Input was collected from state-level epidemiological and economic data for 2019. An estimated 22.4 million workdays were lost in the employed population; 39% associated with the informal sector. Lost workdays due to dengue reduced Brazil's GDP by 876 million USD (0.05%).

CONCLUSIONS

The economic costs of dengue outbreaks far surpass the direct medical costs. Dengue reduces overall GDP and inflicts national economic losses. With a high proportion of the population lacking formal employment in both countries and low income being a barrier to seeking care, dengue also poses an equity challenge. A combination of public health measures, like vector control and vaccination, against dengue is recommended to mitigate the broader economic impact of dengue.

Socioeconomic and fiscal returns of expanded investment in immunization: a case for life-course vaccination in Colombia

Despite the health, societal, and economic benefits of immunization, many countries focus primarily on childhood immunizations and lack robust policies and sufficient resources for immunizations that can benefit populations across the life course. While the benefits of childhood vaccination are well documented, there is limited evidence on the financial and social return on investment that policymakers can use to inform decisions around administering a life-course immunization program. We developed a cost-benefit model from a societal perspective to evaluate the inclusion of 5 vaccines across the life course in Colombia's national immunization program. This model estimated a return of US$1.3 per US$1.0 invested in the first 2 decades, increasing to US$3.9 after 60 years. Primary benefits were productivity gains, followed by fiscal savings and household averted expenditure on health care. Furthermore, vulnerable households are predicted to receive 3.2 times greater income protection than formally employed households under a life-course immunization program. Consequently, there is a potential to reduce Colombia's income inequality and poverty rate by increasing access to immunization for all ages.

Modelling the Public Health Burden of Herpes Zoster and the Impact of Adjuvanted Recombinant Zoster Vaccine in Five Selected Countries in Southeast Asia

INTRODUCTION

Herpes zoster (HZ) can cause substantial patient morbidity and lead to large healthcare costs. However, the disease burden of HZ in Southeast Asia may be underestimated. This study aimed to estimate the public health burden of HZ and the impact of vaccinating adults aged ≥ 50 years old in five Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam), with adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) compared with no vaccination.

METHODS

For each country, we adapted a static multicohort Markov model developed with a 1-year cycle length and lifetime horizon. Demographics were obtained from the World Health Organization, HZ incidence from a worldwide meta-regression reporting Asian-specific values, proportions of postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) and non-PHN complications from local/regional studies, and vaccine efficacy from a long-term follow-up trial. First-dose coverage and second-dose compliance were assumed to be 30% and 70%, respectively. A one-way deterministic sensitivity analysis (OWSA) and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) were performed to assess the robustness and uncertainty of inputs for each country.

RESULTS

Without RZV, it was estimated that there would be a total of approximately 10 million HZ cases, 2.1 million PHN cases, and 1.4 million non-PHN complications in individuals aged ≥ 50 years included in the model. Introducing RZV under 30% coverage could avoid approximately 2.2 million (22%) HZ cases, almost 500,000 (21%) PHN cases, and around 300,000 (22%) non-PHN complications. OWSA showed that first-dose coverage and initial HZ incidence had the largest impact on the estimated number of HZ cases avoided. The number needed to vaccinate ranged from 15 to 21 to prevent one case of HZ and from 68 to 104 to prevent one case of PHN across each country.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that there is substantial HZ disease burden in older adults for the five selected countries in Southeast Asia, negatively impacting national healthcare systems. Introducing RZV could potentially reduce this burden. A graphical abstract is available with this article.

On spillovers in economic evaluations: definition, mapping review and research agenda

An important issue in economic evaluations is determining whether all relevant impacts are considered, given the perspective chosen for the analysis. Acknowledging that patients are not isolated individuals has important implications in this context. Increasingly, the term "spillovers" is used to label consequences of health interventions on others. However, a clear definition of spillovers is lacking, and as a result, the scope of the concept remains unclear. In this study, we aim to clarify the concept of spillovers by proposing a definition applicable in health economic evaluations. To illustrate the implications of this definition, we highlight the diversity of potential spillovers through an expanded impact inventory and conduct a mapping review that outlines the evidence base for the different types of spillovers. In the context of economic evaluations of health interventions, we define spillovers as all impacts from an intervention on all parties or entities other than the users of the intervention under evaluation. This definition encompasses a broader range of potential costs and effects, beyond informal caregivers and family members. The expanded impact inventory enables a systematic approach to identifying broader impacts of health interventions. The mapping review shows that the relevance of different types of spillovers is context-specific. Some spillovers are regularly included in economic evaluations, although not always recognised as such, while others are not. A consistent use of the term "spillovers", improved measurement of these costs and effects, and increased transparency in reporting them are still necessary. To that end, we propose a research agenda.

Clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of the updated COVID-19 mRNA Autumn 2023 vaccines in Germany

OBJECTIVES

To assess the potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA vaccines updated for Autumn 2023 in adults aged ≥60 years and high-risk persons aged 30-59 years in Germany over a 1-year analytic time horizon (September 2023-August 2024).

METHODS

A compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model was updated and adapted to the German market. Numbers of symptomatic infections, a number of COVID-19 related hospitalizations and deaths, costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained were calculated using a decision tree model. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of an Autumn 2023 Moderna updated COVID-19 (mRNA-1273.815) vaccine was compared to no additional vaccination. Potential differences between the mRNA-1273.815 and the Autumn Pfizer-BioNTech updated COVID-19 (XBB.1.5 BNT162b2) vaccines, as well as societal return on investment for the mRNA-1273.815 vaccine relative to no vaccination, were also examined.

RESULTS

Compared to no autumn vaccination, the mRNA-1273.815 campaign is predicted to prevent approximately 1,697,900 symptomatic infections, 85,400 hospitalizations, and 4,100 deaths. Compared to an XBB.1.5 BNT162b2 campaign, the mRNA-1273.815 campaign is also predicted to prevent approximately 90,100 symptomatic infections, 3,500 hospitalizations, and 160 deaths. Across both analyses we found the mRNA-1273.815 campaign to be dominant.

CONCLUSIONS

The mRNA-1273.815 vaccine can be considered cost-effective relative to the XBB.1.5 BNT162b2 vaccine and highly likely to provide more benefits and save costs compared to no vaccine in Germany, and to offer high societal return on investment.

Rule of Prevention: a potential framework to evaluate preventive interventions for rare diseases

Background: The benefits of preventive interventions lack comprehensive evaluation in standard health technology assessments (HTA), particularly for rare and transmissible diseases. Objective: To identify possible considerations for future HTA using analogies between the treatment and prevention of rare diseases. Study design: An Expert panel meeting assessed whether one HTA assessment framework can be applied to assess both rare disease treatments and preventive interventions. Experts also evaluated the range of value elements currently included in HTAs and their applicability to rare, transmissible, and/or preventable diseases. Results: A broad range of value should be considered when assessing rare, transmissible disease prevention. Although standard HTA can be applied to transmissible diseases, the risk of local outbreaks and the need for large-scale prevention programs suggest a modified assessment framework, capable of incorporating prevention-specific value elements in HTAs. A 'Rule of Prevention' framework was proposed to allow broader value considerations anchored to severity, equity, and prevention benefits in decision-making for preventive interventions for rare transmissible diseases. Conclusion: The proposed prevention framework introduces an explicit initial approach to consistently assess rare transmissible diseases, and to incorporate the broader value of preventive interventions compared with treatment.

Real-World Evidence in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Enhanced Influenza Vaccines in Adults ≥ 65 Years of Age: Literature Review and Expert Opinion

Influenza vaccination can benefit most populations, including adults ≥ 65 years of age, who are at greater risk of influenza-related complications. In many countries, enhanced vaccines, such as adjuvanted, high-dose, and recombinant trivalent/quadrivalent influenza vaccines (aTIV/aQIV, HD-TIV/HD-QIV, and QIVr, respectively), are recommended in older populations to provide higher immunogenicity and increased relative vaccine efficacy/effectiveness (rVE) than standard-dose vaccines. This review explores how efficacy and effectiveness data from randomized controlled trials and real-world evidence (RWE) are used in economic evaluations. Findings from published cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) on enhanced influenza vaccines for older adults are summarized, and the assumptions and approaches used in these CEA are assessed alongside discussion of the importance of RWE in CEA. Results from many CEA showed that adjuvanted and high-dose enhanced vaccines were cost-effective compared with standard vaccines, and that differences in rVE estimates and acquisition price may drive differences in cost-effectiveness estimates between enhanced vaccines. Overall, RWE and CEA provide clinical and economic rationale for enhanced vaccine use in people ≥ 65 years of age, an at-risk population with substantial burden of disease. Countries that consider RWE when making vaccine recommendations have preferentially recommended aTIV/aQIV, as well as HD-TIV/HD-QIV and QIVr, to protect older individuals.

The Societal Value of Vaccines: Expert-Based Conceptual Framework and Methods Using COVID-19 Vaccines as a Case Study

Health technology assessments (HTAs) of vaccines typically focus on the direct health benefits to individuals and healthcare systems. COVID-19 highlighted the widespread societal impact of infectious diseases and the value of vaccines in averting adverse clinical consequences and in maintaining or resuming social and economic activities. Using COVID-19 as a case study, this research work aimed to set forth a conceptual framework capturing the broader value elements of vaccines and to identify appropriate methods to quantify value elements not routinely considered in HTAs. A two-step approach was adopted, combining a targeted literature review and three rounds of expert elicitation based on a modified Delphi method, leading to a conceptual framework of 30 value elements related to broader health effects, societal and economic impact, public finances, and uncertainty value. When applying the framework to COVID-19 vaccines in post-pandemic settings, 13 value elements were consensually rated highly important by the experts for consideration in HTAs. The experts reviewed over 10 methods that could be leveraged to quantify broader value elements and provided technical forward-looking recommendations. Limitations of the framework and the identified methods were discussed. This study supplements ongoing efforts aimed towards a broader recognition of the full societal value of vaccines.

The potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of the updated COVID-19 mRNA fall 2023 vaccines in the United States

AIMS

To assess the potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines updated for fall 2023 in adults aged ≥18 years over a 1-year analytic time horizon (September 2023-August 2024).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model was updated to reflect COVID-19 cases in summer 2023. The numbers of symptomatic infections, COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths, and costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained were calculated using a decision tree model. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of a Moderna updated mRNA fall 2023 vaccine (Moderna Fall Campaign) was compared to no additional vaccination. Potential differences between the Moderna and the Pfizer-BioNTech fall 2023 vaccines were also examined.

RESULTS

Base case results suggest that the Moderna Fall Campaign would decrease the expected 64.2 million symptomatic infections by 7.2 million (11%) to 57.0 million. COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths are expected to decline by 343,000 (-29%) and 50,500 (-33%), respectively. The Moderna Fall Campaign would increase QALYs by 740,880 and healthcare costs by $5.7 billion relative to no vaccine, yielding an ICER of $7700 per QALY gained. Using a societal cost perspective, the ICER is $2100. Sensitivity analyses suggest that vaccine effectiveness, COVID-19 incidence, hospitalization rates, and costs drive cost-effectiveness. With a relative vaccine effectiveness of 5.1% for infection and 9.8% for hospitalization for the Moderna vaccine versus the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, use of the Moderna vaccine is expected to prevent 24,000 more hospitalizations and 3300 more deaths than the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.

LIMITATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

As COVID-19 becomes endemic, future incidence, including patterns of infection, are highly uncertain. The effectiveness of fall 2023 vaccines is unknown, and it is unclear when a new variant that evades natural or vaccine immunity will emerge. Despite these limitations, our model predicts the Moderna Fall Campaign vaccine is highly cost-effective across all sensitivity analyses.

Public health impact and return on investment of the pediatric immunization program in Poland

BACKGROUND

This study aims to evaluate the epidemiological impact and return on investment of the pediatric immunization program (PIP) in Poland from the healthcare-sector and societal perspectives.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A health-economic model was developed focusing on the nine vaccines, targeting 11 pathogens, recommended by the public health authorities for children aged 0-6 years in Poland. The 2019 birth cohort (388,178) was followed over their lifetime, with the model estimating discounted health outcomes, life-years gained, quality-adjusted life-years, and direct and indirect costs with and without the PIP based on current and pre-vaccine - era disease incidence estimates, respectively.

RESULTS

Across 11 targeted pathogens, the Polish PIP prevented more than 452,300 cases of disease, 1,600 deaths, 37,900 life-years lost, and 38,800 quality-adjusted life-years lost. The PIP was associated with vaccination costs of €54 million. Pediatric immunization averted €65 million from a healthcare-sector perspective (benefit-cost ratio [BCR], 2.2) and averted €358 million from a societal perspective (BCR, 7.6). The BCRs from both perspectives remained >1.0 in scenario analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The Polish PIP, which has not previously been systematically assessed, brings large-scale prevention of disease-related morbidity, premature mortality, and associated costs. This analysis highlights the value of continued investment in pediatric immunization in Poland.

The Value of Vaccines: A Tale of Two Parts

Vaccines are essential to ensuring a nation's health, wellbeing and prosperity. After the coronavirus pandemic commenced, the Australian Government introduced social restrictions to constrain virus transmission, seeing significant economic impacts. Reflecting the extraordinary circumstances, subsequent vaccination rollout forwent usual health technology assessment (HTA) processes, facilitating restrictions removal and leading to societal and economic recovery. However, in 'usual' circumstances, HTA may not consider such broader effects of vaccines, making it challenging for them to achieve timely funding. We used detailed modelling to compare economic impacts under continued lockdowns against population-wide vaccination rollout between January 2020 and June 2023 and examined global HTA vaccine evaluation methodologies and efforts to develop broader valuation approaches. Australian gross domestic product reduces by approximately AUD 395 billion with lockdowns. With vaccination rollout, this effect is approximately AUD 214bn, a positive incremental impact of AUD 181bn. Vaccination contributes to large estimated positive effects for tourism (AUD 28bn) and education (AUD 26bn) exports, employment (142,000 jobs) and government finances (AUD 259bn). Conversely, global HTA methods generally only consider direct patient health outcomes and healthcare system-related costs, with broader effects usually not impacting funding decisions. Our results suggest that recent efforts to propose broader HTA valuation frameworks warrant further policy consideration.

Capturing the value of vaccination within health technology assessment and health economics: Literature review and novel conceptual framework

BACKGROUND

Vaccination provides significant health gains to individuals and society and can potentially improve health equity, healthcare systems and national economies. Policy decisions, however, are rarely informed by comprehensive economic evaluations (EE) including vaccination's wide-ranging value. The objective of this analysis was to focus on health technology assessment systems to identify relevant value concepts in order to improve current EE of non-pandemic vaccines.

METHODS

Following a literature review, a novel Value of Vaccination (VoV) framework was developed with experts in vaccine EE from developed countries with established health technology assessment systems.

RESULTS

Forty-four studies presenting value frameworks or concepts applicable to vaccination were included. Eighteen unique value concepts relevant to EE were identified and defined. These were categorised within the VoV framework using three dimensions, moving from a narrow payer perspective to a more expansive and societal perspective. The dimensions were: (I) conventional payer perspective concepts (e.g., health gains in vaccinees, direct medical costs); (II) conventional societal perspective concepts (e.g., indirect health/economic gains to caregivers/households, productivity in vaccinees); and (III) novel societal concepts (e.g., financial risk protection, peace of mind, societal health gains, healthcare systems security, political stability, social equity and macroeconomic gains). While good quality evidence and methods are available to support concepts in Dimensions I and II, further work is needed to generate the required evidence for vaccination impact on Dimension III concepts.

CONCLUSIONS

The devastating effect on nations of the COVID-19 pandemic has helped to highlight the potential far-reaching benefits that many vaccination programmes can offer. This VoV framework is particularly relevant to policy decisions considering EE, and the potential future expansion of non-pandemic vaccination value considerations. The framework helps to understand and compare current value considerations across countries and payer versus societal perspectives. It provides decision-makers with a transparent and logical path to broaden consideration of VoV in EE.