Estimation of tsetse challenge and its relationship with trypanosomosis incidence in cattle kept under pastoral production systems in Kenya

A scoping review on tsetse fly blood meal sources and its assay methods since 1956 to 2022

BACKGROUND

Tsetse flies (Glossina spp.) are the definitive biological vectors of African trypanosomes in humans and animals. Controlling this vector is the most promising method of preventing trypanosome transmission. This requires a comprehensive understanding of tsetse biology and host preference to inform targeted design and management strategies, such as the use of olfaction and visual cues in tsetse traps. No current review exists on host preference and blood meal analyses of tsetse flies.

METHODS

This review presents a meta-analysis of tsetse fly blood meal sources and the methodologies used to identify animal hosts from 1956 to August 2022. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRIMA-ScR) was applied. This focused on tsetse-endemic countries, blood meal analysis methodologies and the blood meal hosts identified. The articles were retrieved and screened from databases using predetermined eligibility criteria.

RESULTS

Only 49/393 of the articles retrieved matched the inclusion criteria. Glossina's main hosts in the wild included the bushbuck, buffalo, elephant, warthog, bushpig and hippopotamus. Pigs, livestock and humans were key hosts at the domestic interface. The least studied species included Glossina fuscipleuris, G. fusca, G. medicorum, G. tabaniformis and G. austeni. In the absence of preferred hosts, Glossina fed opportunistically on a variety of hosts. Precipitin, haemagglutination, disc diffusion, complement fixation, ELISA and PCR-based assays were used to evaluate blood meals. Cytochrome b (Cyt b) was the main target gene in PCR to identify the vertebrate hosts.

CONCLUSIONS

Tsetse blood meal sources have likely expanded because of ecological changes that could have rendered preferred hosts unavailable. The major approaches for analysing tsetse fly blood meal hosts targeted Cyt b gene for species identification by Sanger sequencing. However, small-fragment DNAs, such as the mammalian 12S and 16S rRNA genes, along with second- and third-generation sequencing techniques, could increase sensitivity for host identification in multiple host feeders that Sanger sequencing may misidentify as "noise". This review of tsetse fly blood meal sources and approaches to host identification could inform strategies for tsetse control.

Trypanosomes infection, endosymbionts, and host preferences in tsetse flies (Glossina spp.) collected from Akagera park region, Rwanda: A correlational xenomonitoring study

Akagera National Park and its surroundings are home to tsetse flies and a number of their mammalian hosts in Rwanda. A One-health approach is being used in the control and surveillance of both animal and human trypanosomosis in Rwanda. Determination of the infection level in tsetse flies, species of trypanosomes circulating in vectors, the source of tsetse blood meal and endosymbionts is crucial in understanding the epidemiology of the disease in animals and humans in the region. Tsetse flies (n = 1101), comprising Glossina pallidipes (n = 771) and Glossina morsitans centralis (n = 330) were collected from Akagera park and surrounding areas between May 2018 and June 2019. The flies were screened for trypanosomes, vertebrate host DNA to identify sources of blood meal, and endosymbionts by PCR - High Resolution Melting analysis and amplicon sequencing. The feeding frequency and the feeding indices (selection index - W) were calculated to identify the preferred hosts. An overall trypanosome infection rate of 13.9% in the fly's Head and Proboscis (HP) and 24.3% in the Thorax and Abdomen (TA) were found. Eight trypanosome species were identified in the tsetse fly HP and TA, namely: Trypanosoma (T.) brucei brucei, T. congolense Kilifi, T. congolense savannah, T. vivax, T. simiae, T. evansi, T. godfreyi, T. grayi and T. theileri. We found no evidence of human-infective T. brucei rhodesiense. We also identified eighteen species of vertebrate hosts that tsetse flies fed on, and the most frequent one was the buffalo (Syncerus caffer) (36.5%). The frequently detected host by selection index was the rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) (W = 16.2). Most trypanosome infections in tsetse flies were associated with the buffalo blood meal. The prevalence of tsetse endosymbionts Sodalis and Wolbachia was 2.8% and 4.8%, respectively. No Spiroplasma and Salivary Gland Hypertrophy Virus were detected. These findings implicate the buffaloes as the important reservoirs of tsetse-transmitted trypanosomes in the area. This contributes to predicting the main cryptic reservoirs and therefore guiding the effective control of the disease. The study findings provide the key scientific information that supports the current One Health collaboration in the control and surveillance of tsetse-transmitted trypanosomosis in Rwanda.

Bloodmeal host identities among sympatric Glossina austeni and Glossina pallidipes tsetse flies in Shimba Hills National Reserve, Kwale, Kenya

Odor from preferred/non-preferred tsetse fly vertebrate hosts have been exploited in R&D of attractants/repellents of the fly for human and livestock protection. Odors from vertebrate hosts of Glossina austeni and Glossina pallidipes tsetse flies can facilitate formulation of novel attractants effective against G. austeni or improvement of existing attractant blends for G. pallidipes. We compared vertebrate blood meal sources of both fly species at Shimba Hills National Reserve, Kenya, to establish putative preferred host of either species, hence potential source of G. austeni or G. pallidipes specific odors. We trapped sympatric adult flies in 2021 and 2022 using NGU traps/sticky panels baited with POCA, collected their blood meals and characterize the meals using HRM vertebrate 16S rRNA- PCR (for host identification), and compared host profiles using GLM and Fisher's exact tests. We collected 168 and 62 sympatric G. pallidipes and G. austeni with bloodmeal, respectively in 2021 and, 230 and 142 respectively in 2022. In 2021, we identified putative hosts of 65.48 and 69.35 % of the G. pallidipes and G. austeni respectively and 82.61 and 80.28%, respectively in 2022. In 2021, we detected harnessed bushbuck, buffalo, common warthog and cattle putative host bloodmeals, and additionally bushpig and suni antelope bloodmeals in 2022. Putative vertebrate bloodmeal sources were significantly different by tsetse fly species (χ2(1, N=457) = 43.215, p < 0.001) and sampling year (χ2(1, N=457) = 8.044, p = 0.005). Frequency of common warthog bloodmeals was higher in G. pallidipes (65.79 %) than G. austeni (38.60%), and that of suni antelope and harnessed bushbuck putative bloodmeals higher in G. austeni (21.05-28.07%) than in G. pallidipes (6.84 - 17.37%) in 2022. There was an apparent change in putative feeding preference/host choices in both fly species between 2021 and 2022. Host bloodmeals in G. pallidipes or G. austeni predominantly from putative harnessed bushbuck, suni antelope or common warthog reveal these vertebrates with potential odors that can be harnessed and formulated into appropriate attractants for respective species and integrated into routine control regiment for G. pallidipes and/or G. austeni.

Criteria for selecting sentinel unit locations in a surveillance system for vector-borne disease: A decision tool

Objectives

With vector-borne diseases emerging across the globe, precipitated by climate change and other anthropogenic changes, it is critical for public health authorities to have well-designed surveillance strategies in place. Sentinel surveillance has been proposed as a cost-effective approach to surveillance in this context. However, spatial design of sentinel surveillance system has important impacts on surveillance outcomes, and careful selection of sentinel unit locations is therefore an essential component of planning.

Methods

A review of the available literature, based on the realist approach, was used to identify key decision issues for sentinel surveillance planning. Outcomes of the review were used to develop a decision tool, which was subsequently validated by experts in the field.

Results

The resulting decision tool provides a list of criteria which can be used to select sentinel unit locations. We illustrate its application using the case example of designing a national sentinel surveillance system for Lyme disease in Canada.

Conclusions

The decision tool provides researchers and public health authorities with a systematic, evidence-based approach for planning the spatial design of sentinel surveillance systems, taking into account the aims of the surveillance system and disease and/or context-specific considerations.

Molecular Detection and Characterization of Trypanosomes Infecting Traditionally Managed Cattle in the Tropic Warm Sub-Humid Zone of Nigeria

Traditionally managed cattle constitutes the main source of animal protein to humans in Nigeria. However, seasonal migration in search of pasture exposes them to several vector-borne infections such as the African Animal Trypanosomosis (AAT), which limits their productivity. In this study, blood samples from 130 cattle in Plateau and Nasarawa states collected from May to June, 2021 were examined by the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) and sequencing methods to determine the prevalence of pathogenic trypanosomes. Overall, the DNA of T. vivax was detected in 19 out of the 130 (14.6 %) samples examined by the PCR. However, using the micro-hematocrit centrifugation technique, motile haemoparasites were detected in only six (4.6 %, confidence interval [CI] 0.5—6.9 %) of the samples. The higher prevalence of T. vivax was recorded in samples sourced from the abattoir than in samples submitted from the field in Plateau state (16.7 % versus 11.5 %). However, the reverse was the case in Nasarawa state (2.9 % versus 37.5 %). The difference in prevalence of T. vivax between the abattoir and field samples was significant (P = 0.009) in Nasarawa state, but not in Plateau state (P = 0.55). The mean PCV (Packed Cell Volume) of the trypanosome infected animals was lower than that of the non-infected animals, but the difference was not significant (P = 0.29). The internal transcribe spacer region (ITS) nucleotide sequences of T. vivax generated in this study were 100 % identical to each other and formed a monophyletic cluster with the sequences of T. vivax from different countries in the GenBank. AAT remains a major constraint to profitable cattle production and food security in Nigeria and deserves more attention.

Entomological assessment of tsetse-borne trypanosome risk in the Shimba Hills human-wildlife-livestock interface, Kenya

Shimba Hills is a wildlife area in Kenya and a major focus of tsetse-borne trypanosomes in East Africa. In Shimba Hills, tsetse-borne trypanosomes constrain animal health and smallholder livelihoods. However, epidemiological data to guide hotspot-targeted control of infections are limited. This study assessed the dynamics of tsetse-borne trypanosome risk in Shimba Hills with the objective to describe infection hotspots for targeted control. Tsetse flies (n = 696) collected in field surveys between November 2018 and September 2019 in Shimba Hills were characterized for chronological age and phenotypic sizes and screened for trypanosome and cattle DNA. Entomological inoculation rates for trypanosome risk assessment were derived from the product of fly abundance and molecular rates of vector infection and confirmed cattle bloodmeals in tsetse flies. In addition, cattle health indicators including anemia scores were assessed in contemporaneous parasitological surveys that screened livestock blood samples (n = 1,417) for trypanosome using the buffy-coat technique. Compared with Glossina brevipalpis and G. austeni, G. pallidipes was the most abundant tsetse fly species in Shimba Hills and had a wider spatial distribution and greater likelihood for infectious bites on cattle. The risk of cattle infection was similar along the Shimba Hills human-wildlife-livestock interface and high within one thousand meters of the wildlife reserve boundary. Trypanosomes in tsetse flies were highly diverse and included parasites of wild-suids probably acquired from warthogs in Shimba Hills. Age and phenotypic sizes were similar between tsetse fly populations and did not affect the probability of infection or cattle bloodmeals in the vectors. Anemia was more likely in trypanosome-positive cattle whilst parasitological infection rates in cattle samples maintained a weak relationship with entomological inoculation rates probably because of the limited time scale of sample collection. Trypanosome risk in Shimba Hills is high in locations close to the wildlife reserve and driven by G. pallidipes infectious bites on cattle. Therefore, trypanosome vector control programmes in the area should be designed to reduce G. pallidipes abundance and tailored to target sites close to the wildlife reserve.

Blood meal analysis of tsetse flies ( Glossina pallidipes: Glossinidae) reveals higher host fidelity on wild compared with domestic hosts

Background: Changes in climate and land use can alter risk of transmission of parasites between domestic hosts and wildlife, particularly when mediated by vectors that can travel between populations. Here we focused on tsetse flies (genus Glossina), the cyclical vectors for both Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) and Animal African Trypanosomiasis (AAT). The aims of this study were to investigate three issues related to G. palldipes from Kenya: 1) the diversity of vertebrate hosts that flies fed on; 2) whether host feeding patterns varied in relation to type of hosts, tsetse feeding behaviour, site or tsetse age and sex; and 3) if there was a relationship between trypanosome detection and host feeding behaviours or host types. Methods: Sources of blood meals of Glossina pallidipes were identified by sequencing of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and analyzed in relationship with previously determined trypanosome detection in the same flies. Results: In an area dominated by wildlife but with seasonal presence of livestock (Nguruman), 98% of tsetse fed on single wild host species, whereas in an area including a mixture of resident domesticated animals, humans and wildlife (Shimba Hills), 52% of flies fed on more than one host species. Multiple Correspondence Analysis revealed strong correlations between feeding pattern, host type and site but these were resolved along a different dimension than trypanosome status, sex and age of the flies. Conclusions: Our results suggest that individual G. pallidipes in interface areas may show higher feeding success on wild hosts when available but often feed on both wild and domesticated hosts. This illustrates the importance of G. pallidipes as a vector connecting the sylvatic and domestic cycles of African trypanosomes.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of small ruminant and porcine trypanosomiasis prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa (1986 to 2018)

The appraisal of the disease burden of African animal trypanosomiasis (AAT) in some livestock at country level could invite a re-evaluation of trypanosomiasis-control strategy. This study thus estimates small ruminant and porcine trypanosomiasis prevalence in sub-Saharan African countries. It also describes Trypanosoma species prevalence in small ruminants and pigs and attempts identification of factors explaining between-study variations in prevalence. Articles reporting animal trypanosomiasis prevalence in sheep, goats, and pigs in countries within sub-Saharan Africa were retrieved from different databases (PubMed, Science Direct, Google Scholar, and African Journal Online) and reference lists of relevant literatures. A total of 85 articles from 13 countries published between 1986 and 2018 were included in the analysis. Overall random-effects meta-analytic mean prevalence estimates were: 7.67% (95% CI: 5.22-10.49), 5.84% (95% CI: 3.81-8.23), and 19.46% (95% CI: 14.61-24.80) respectively, for sheep, goats, and pigs with substantial heterogeneity (I² = >95.00%. p < 0.0001) noted between studies. Ovine, caprine, and porcine prevalence were highest in Tanzania (91.67%. 95% CI: 76.50-99.84), Equatorial Guinea (27%. 95% CI: 0-81.09), and Cameroon (47%. 95% CI: 29.67-66.06), respectively. Trypanosoma brucei s. l., T. vivax, and T. congolense were the most prevalent in the livestock. Trypanosoma brucei subspecies (T. b. gambiense and T. b. rhodesiense) occurred in all three livestock being mostly prevalent in pigs. Country of study was a significant predictor of trypanosomiasis prevalence in each livestock in addition to time and sample size for caprine hosts, diagnostic technique for both caprine and ovine hosts, and sample size for porcine hosts. The pattern of animal trypanosomiasis prevalence in the studied livestock reflects their susceptibility to trypanosomal infections and tsetse fly host feeding preferences. In conclusion, sheep, goats, and especially pigs are reservoirs of human infective trypanosomes in sub-Saharan Africa; consequently, their inclusion in sleeping sickness control programmes could enhance the goal of the disease elimination.

Molecular identification of bovine trypanosomes in relation to cattle sources in southwest Nigeria

Bovine trypanosomosis is a problem in the livestock industry in Nigeria. A longitudinal survey of cattle sampled during the wet and dry seasons was conducted from April 2016 to March 2017. Blood samples were collected by random sampling from 745 cattle in southwest Nigeria and screened for trypanosomes by internal transcribed spacer-polymerase chain reaction (ITS-PCR). Cattle positive for Trypanozoon DNA were further screened with the Rode Trypanozoon antigen type (RoTat) 1.2 PCR and Trypanosoma brucei gambiense glycoprotein (TgsGP) genes for T. evansi and T. b. gambiense respectively. Trypanosome DNA was amplified in 23.8% (95%CI: 20.8-26.9) of cattle with significantly higher prevalence in wet season (95%CI: 22.9-30.8) when compared to the dry season (95%CI: 14.3-23.6). A high prevalence was observed in Fulani cattle farms 54.1% (95%CI: 42.78-64.93%) while the prevalence was lower in institutional farms 14.7% (95%CI: 10.10-20.97%). Trypanosoma vivax was the most prevalent trypanosome observed (11.54% (95%CI: 9.44-14.04%)), followed by T. congolense 8.5% (95%CI: 6.67-10.67%) T. b. brucei 4.8% (95%CI: 3.51-6.62%) and T. evansi 1.74% (95%CI: 1.02-2.96%). Mixed infections were observed in 2.8% (95%CI: 1.85-4.27%) of cattle. Seasonal variation revealed a predominance of T. congolense and T. vivax in wet and dry season, respectively. The high prevalence of Trypanosoma species in cattle indicates a need for expanded surveillance for AAT in southwest Nigeria. Migration, settlement patterns, increased marketing and management types were some of the risk factors identified for AAT.

Spatial-temporal and phylogeographic characterization of Trypanosoma spp. in cattle (Bos taurus) and buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis) reveals transmission dynamics of these parasites in Colombia

Animal Trypanosomiasis (AT) is one of the most important problems in the Colombian livestock industry reducing its production around 30%. Caribbean and Orinoquia regions play a significant role in the development of this industry, having about 6.9 million cattle and 113,000 buffaloes. Considering the paucity in studies to understand the epidemiological features and control of AT in Colombia, the present study reports the seasonal transmission patterns and phylogeographic traits of the causal agents of AT in cattle and buffaloes from these regions. Between 2014 and 2016, a three-point longitudinal survey was designed to evaluate the mentioned characteristics. Molecular analysis in cattle showed an AT prevalence of 39.2% (T. theileri 38.6%, T. evansi 6.7% and T. vivax 0.2%), with higher values during wet and late wet seasons, while in buffaloes the prevalence was 28.2% (T. theileri 28.2% and T. evansi 1.3%), with higher values during the dry season. Additionally, variables such as tabanid abundance, vector control, breeding system, age and anemia signs were significantly associated with AT prevalence (P<0.05). Only T. theileri infection was higher in cattle with anemia signs than those with normal packed cell volume. Finally, phylogeographic analysis revealed that Colombian T. theileri isolates were associated to specific host genotypes IA and IIB, described worldwide; T. vivax isolates were related to the genotype from West Africa; while T. evansi isolates are related to the South American genotypes and to new genotypes. This is the first longitudinal survey that evaluates through molecular methods, the infection of Trypanosoma spp. in two important livestock regions from Colombia, showing that the clinical effects and prevalence of these trypanosomes in cattle and buffaloes are modulated by seasonal variations, host factors, and parasite traits. The results suggest that these factors have to be taken into account to successfully control AT in these regions.

Transmission Dynamics of Rhodesian Sleeping Sickness at the Interface of Wildlife and Livestock Areas

Many wilderness areas of East and Southern Africa are foci for Rhodesian sleeping sickness, a fatal zoonotic disease caused by trypanosomes transmitted by tsetse flies. Although transmission in these foci is traditionally driven by wildlife reservoirs, rising human and livestock populations may increase the role of livestock in transmission cycles. Deciphering transmission dynamics at wildlife and livestock interface areas is key to developing appropriate control. Data are lacking for key parameters, including host distributions, tsetse density, and mortality rates, and the relative roles of livestock and wildlife as hosts in fragmented habitats, limiting the development of meaningful models to assist in the assessment and implementation of control strategies.

Social factors affecting seasonal variation in bovine trypanosomiasis on the Jos Plateau, Nigeria

Background

African Animal Trypanosomiasis (AAT) is a widespread disease of livestock in Nigeria and presents a major constraint to rural economic development. The Jos Plateau was considered free from tsetse flies and the trypanosomes they transmit due to its high altitude and this trypanosomiasis free status attracted large numbers of cattle-keeping pastoralists to the area. The Jos Plateau now plays a major role in the national cattle industry in Nigeria, accommodating approximately 7% of the national herd, supporting 300,000 pastoralists and over one million cattle. During the past two decades tsetse flies have invaded the Jos Plateau and animal trypanosomiasis has become a significant problem for livestock keepers. Here we investigate the epidemiology of trypanosomiasis as a re-emerging disease on the Plateau, examining the social factors that influence prevalence and seasonal variation of bovine trypanosomiasis.

Methods

In 2008 a longitudinal two-stage cluster survey was undertaken on the Jos Plateau. Cattle were sampled in the dry, early wet and late wet seasons. Parasite identification was undertaken using species-specific polymerase chain reactions to determine the prevalence and distribution of bovine trypanosomiasis. Participatory rural appraisal was also conducted to determine knowledge, attitudes and practices concerning animal husbandry and disease control.

Results

Significant seasonal variation between the dry season and late wet season was recorded across the Jos Plateau, consistent with expected variation in tsetse populations. However, marked seasonal variations were also observed at village level to create 3 distinct groups: Group 1 in which 50% of villages followed the general pattern of low prevalence in the dry season and high prevalence in the wet season; Group 2 in which 16.7% of villages showed no seasonal variation and Group 3 in which 33.3% of villages showed greater disease prevalence in the dry season than in the wet season.

Conclusions

There was high seasonal variation at the village level determined by management as well as climatic factors. The growing influence of management factors on the epidemiology of trypanosomiasis highlights the impact of recent changes in land use and natural resource competition on animal husbandry decisions in the extensive pastoral production system.

A longitudinal survey of African animal trypanosomiasis in domestic cattle on the Jos Plateau, Nigeria: prevalence, distribution and risk factors

BACKGROUND

Trypanosomiasis is a widespread disease of livestock in Nigeria and a major constraint to the rural economy. The Jos Plateau, Nigeria was free from tsetse flies and the trypanosomes they transmit due to its high altitude and the absence of animal trypanosomiasis attracted large numbers of cattle-keeping pastoralists to inhabit the plateau. The Jos Plateau now plays a significant role in the national cattle industry, accommodating approximately 7% of the national herd and supporting 300,000 pastoralists and over one million cattle. However, during the past two decades tsetse flies have invaded the Jos Plateau and animal trypanosomiasis has become a significant problem for livestock keepers.

METHODS

In 2008 a longitudinal two-stage cluster survey on the Jos Plateau. Cattle were sampled in the dry, early wet and late wet seasons. Parasite identification was undertaken using species-specific polymerase chain reactions to determine the prevalence and distribution bovine trypanosomiasis. Logistic regression was performed to determine risk factors for disease.

RESULTS

The prevalence of bovine trypanosomiasis (Trypanosoma brucei brucei, Trypanosoma congolense savannah, Trypanosoma vivax) across the Jos Plateau was found to be high at 46.8% (39.0 - 54.5%) and significant, seasonal variation was observed between the dry season and the end of the wet season. T. b. brucei was observed at a prevalence of 3.2% (1% - 5.5%); T. congolense at 27.7% (21.8% - 33.6%) and T. vivax at 26.7% (18.2% - 35.3%). High individual variation was observed in trypanosomiasis prevalence between individual villages on the Plateau, ranging from 8.8% to 95.6%. Altitude was found to be a significant risk factor for trypanosomiasis whilst migration also influenced risk for animal trypanosomiasis.

CONCLUSIONS

Trypanosomiasis is now endemic on the Jos Plateau showing high prevalence in cattle and is influenced by seasonality, altitude and migration practices. Attempts to successfully control animal trypanosomiasis on the Plateau will need to take into account the large variability in trypanosomiasis infection rates between villages, the influence of land use, and husbandry and management practices of the pastoralists, all of which affect the epidemiology of the disease.

Field trial of a synthetic tsetse-repellent technology developed for the control of bovine trypanosomosis in Kenya

We conducted a field trial among Maasai cattle-keepers in Nkuruman and Nkineji areas of Kenya to evaluate the effectiveness of a synthetic tsetse-repellent technology developed for the control of trypanosomosis in cattle. The technology was a repellent (2-methoxy 4-methylphenol) emitted from dispensers attached to collars worn by cattle. Treatment was allocated at the herd level to ensure adequate protection of all the animals in a herd, with measurements of effectiveness conducted at the individual-animal level. The trial began in April 2005 and ran for 16 months including a baseline phase of 4 months. We recruited 12 herds in each area using a restricted random-sampling technique and distributed them equally into intervention (repellent) and control groups. Sample size was determined using a formal power calculation. Effectiveness or minimal worthwhile difference was defined as a 50% reduction in the incidence of trypanosome infection in the treated versus control group (effectiveness below which the technology was considered by experts as not viable compared to existing control techniques). All the animals in the recruited herds were screened monthly (buffy-coat technique) for trypanosome infections. The analysis followed the principle of intention-to-treat by which subjects are analysed according to their initial treatment assignment, regardless of the mechanical performance of the device. Crude and adjusted effects of the technology were 23% (p<0.001) and 18% (p=0.08) reduction in the infection incidence in the treatment compared to the control groups, respectively. The impact of the technology estimated in this study did not achieve the threshold of 50% reduction in the trypanosome infection incidence set a priori to indicate effectiveness (p<0.001). We therefore concluded that the prototype repellent technology package was not sufficiently effective in reducing trypanosome infection incidence under natural tsetse challenge to merit commercial development.

A landscape and climate data logistic model of tsetse distribution in Kenya

Background

Trypanosoma spp, biologically transmitted by the tsetse fly in Africa, are a major cause of illness resulting in both high morbidity and mortality among humans, cattle, wild ungulates, and other species. However, tsetse fly distributions change rapidly due to environmental changes, and fine-scale distribution maps are few. Due to data scarcity, most presence/absence estimates in Kenya prior to 2000 are a combination of local reports, entomological knowledge, and topographic information. The availability of tsetse fly abundance data are limited, or at least have not been collected into aggregate, publicly available national datasets. Despite this limitation, other avenues exist for estimating tsetse distributions including remotely sensed data, climate information, and statistical tools.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here we present a logistic regression model of tsetse abundance. The goal of this model is to estimate the distribution of tsetse fly in Kenya in the year 2000, and to provide a method by which to anticipate their future distribution. Multiple predictor variables were tested for significance and for predictive power; ultimately, a parsimonious subset of variables was identified and used to construct the regression model with the 1973 tsetse map. These data were validated against year 2000 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates. Mapcurves Goodness-Of-Fit scores were used to evaluate the modeled fly distribution against FAO estimates and against 1973 presence/absence data, each driven by appropriate climate data.

Conclusions/Significance

Logistic regression can be effectively used to produce a model that projects fly abundance under elevated greenhouse gas scenarios. This model identifies potential areas for tsetse abandonment and expansion.