Strain wars 2: Binding constants, enthalpies, entropies, Gibbs energies and rates of binding of SARS-CoV-2 variants

EVOLVE: A Web Platform for AI-Based Protein Mutation Prediction and Evolutionary Phase Exploration

While predicting structure-function relationships from sequence data is fundamental in biophysical chemistry, identifying prospective single-point and collective mutation sites in proteins can help us stay ahead in understanding their potential effects on protein structure and function. Addressing the challenges of large sequence-space analysis, we present EVOLVE, a web tool enabling researchers to explore prospective mutation sites and their collective behavior. EVOLVE integrates a statistical mechanics-guided machine learning algorithms to predict probable mutational sites, with statistical mechanics calculating mutational entropy to accurately identify mutational hotspots. Validation against a number of viral protein sequences confirms its ability to predict mutations and their functional consequences. By leveraging statistical mechanics of phase transition concept, EVOLVE also quantifies mutational entropy fluctuations, offering a quantitative foundation for identifying Variants of Concern (VOC) or Variants under Monitoring (VUM) as per World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. EVOLVE streamlines data upload and analysis with a user-friendly interface and comprehensive tutorials. Access EVOLVE free at https://evolve-iiserkol.com.

(R)evolution of Viruses: Introduction to biothermodynamics of viruses

As of 26 April 2024, the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses has registered 14690 virus species. Of these, only several dozen have been chemically and thermodynamically characterized. Every virus species is characterized by a specific empirical formula and thermodynamic properties - enthalpy, entropy and Gibbs energy. These physical properties are used in a mechanistic model of virus-host interactions at the cell membrane and in the cytoplasm. This review article presents empirical formulas and Gibbs energies for all major variants of SARS-CoV-2. This article also reports and suggests a mechanistic model of evolutionary changes, with the example of time evolution of SARS-CoV-2 from 2019 to 2024.

Modulation of aryl hydrocarbon receptor activity by tyrosine kinase inhibitors (ponatinib and tofacitinib)

Ponatinib and tofacitinib, established kinase inhibitors and FDA-approved for chronic myeloid leukemia and rheumatoid arthritis, are recently undergoing investigation in diverse clinical trials for potential repurposing. The aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR), a transcription factor influencing a spectrum of physiological and pathophysiological activities, stands as a therapeutic target for numerous diseases. This study employs molecular modelling tools and in vitro assays to identify ponatinib and tofacitinib as AhR ligands, elucidating their binding and molecular interactions in the AhR PAS-B domain. Molecular docking analyses revealed that ponatinib and tofacitinib occupy the central pocket within the primary cavity, similar to AhR agonists 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzodioxin (TCDD) and (benzo[a]pyrene) B[a]P. Our simulations also showed that these compounds exhibit good stability, stabilizing many hot spots within the PAS-B domain, including the Dα-Eα loop, which serves as a regulatory element for the binding pocket. Binding energy calculations highlighted ponatinib's superior predicted affinity, revealing F295 as a crucial residue in maintaining strong interaction with the two compounds. Our in vitro data suggest that ponatinib functions as an AhR antagonist, blocking the downstream signaling of AhR pathway induced by TCDD and B[a]P. Additionally, both tofacitinib and ponatinib cause impairment in AhR-regulated CYP1A1 enzyme activity induced by potent AhR agonists. This study unveils ponatinib and tofacitinib as potential modulators of AhR, providing valuable insights into their therapeutic roles in AhR-associated diseases and enhancing our understanding of the intricate relationship between kinase inhibitors and AhR.

In-vitro and in-silico analyses of the thrombolytic potential of green kiwifruit

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), mainly caused by thrombosis complications, are the leading cause of mortality worldwide, making the development of alternative treatments highly desirable. In this study, the thrombolytic potential of green kiwifruit (Actinidia deliciosa cultivar Hayward) was assessed using in-vitro and in-silico approaches. The crude green kiwifruit extract demonstrated the ability to reduce blood clots significantly by 73.0 ± 1.12% (P < 0.01) within 6 h, with rapid degradation of Aα and Bβ fibrin chains followed by the γ chain in fibrinolytic assays. Molecular docking revealed six favorable conformations for the kiwifruit enzyme actinidin (ADHact) and fibrin chains, supported by spontaneous binding energies and distances. Moreover, molecular dynamics simulation confirmed the binding stability of the complexes of these conformations, as indicated by the stable binding affinity, high number of hydrogen bonds, and consistent distances between the catalytic residue Cys25 of ADHact and the peptide bond. The better overall binding affinity of ADHact to fibrin chains Aα and Bβ may contribute to their faster degradation, supporting the fibrinolytic results. In conclusion, this study demonstrated the thrombolytic potential of the green kiwifruit-derived enzyme and highlighted its potential role as a natural plant-based prophylactic and therapeutic agent for CVDs.

Animal bioenergetics: Thermodynamic and kinetic analysis of growth and metabolism of Anguilla anguilla

Bioenergetics and biothermodynamics are valuable tools in research on growth and metabolic processes of a wide range of organisms, including viruses, bacteria, fungi, algae and plants, as is shown by the many publications on this topic in the literature. These studies provide insight into growth and metabolism of individual species, as well as interactions between species, like the virus-host interaction (infection) and virus-virus interaction (competition). However, this approach has not yet been applied to animal species. The universality of biothermodynamics and bioenergetics provides a good motive to apply them in analysis of animals. In this research, we made a bioenergetic, biothermodynamic and kinetic characterization for the first time for an animal species - Anguilla anguilla L. (European eel). We made a comparative analysis on yellow (young adult) and silver (mature adult) phases. Metabolic processes were modeled as chemical reactions with characteristic thermodynamic properties: enthalpy, entropy and Gibbs energy. Moreover, Gibbs energy explained growth rates, through phenomenological equations. This analysis of animal metabolism and growth explained metabolic properties of yellow and silver A. anguilla, including the bioenergetic aspect of life history. Moreover, we compared thermodynamic properties of A. anguilla with those of its main macromolecular components and other organisms. The thermodynamic properties were explained by the structural properties of organisms. This research extends the bioenergetic and biothermodynamic approaches to zoology, which should allow analysis of the energetic aspect of animal metabolic processes, interactions with their environment and interactions with other organisms. Furthermore, it connects the macroscopic perspective of zoology with the microscopic perspectives of biochemistry, bioenergetics and biothermodynamics. This will provide a basis for development of mechanistic models of animal growth and metabolism.

SARS-CoV-2 strain wars continues: Chemical and thermodynamic characterization of live matter and biosynthesis of Omicron BN.1, CH.1.1 and XBC variants

SARS-CoV-2 has during the last 3 years mutated several dozen times. Most mutations in the newly formed variants have been chemically and thermodynamically characterized. New variants have been declared as variants under monitoring. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has suggested the hypothesis that the new BN.1, CH.1.1 and XBC variants could have properties similar to those of VOC. Thermodynamic properties of new variants have been reported in this manuscript for the first time. Gibbs energy of biosynthesis, as the driving force for viral multiplication, is less negative for the new variants than for the earlier variants. This indicates that the virus has evolved towards decrease in pathogenicity, which leads to less severe forms of COVID-19.

Ghosts of the past: Elemental composition, biosynthesis reactions and thermodynamic properties of Zeta P.2, Eta B.1.525, Theta P.3, Kappa B.1.617.1, Iota B.1.526, Lambda C.37 and Mu B.1.621 variants of SARS-CoV-2

From the perspectives of molecular biology, genetics and biothermodynamics, SARS-CoV-2 is the among the best characterized viruses. Research on SARS-CoV-2 has shed a new light onto driving forces and molecular mechanisms of viral evolution. This paper reports results on empirical formulas, biosynthesis reactions and thermodynamic properties of biosynthesis (multiplication) for the Zeta P.2, Eta B.1.525, Theta P.3, Kappa B.1.617.1, Iota B.1.526, Lambda C.37 and Mu B.1.621 variants of SARS-CoV-2. Thermodynamic analysis has shown that the physical driving forces for evolution of SARS-CoV-2 are Gibbs energy of biosynthesis and Gibbs energy of binding. The driving forces have led SARS-CoV-2 through the evolution process from the original Hu-1 to the newest variants in accordance with the expectations of the evolution theory.

COVID infection in 4 steps: Thermodynamic considerations reveal how viral mucosal diffusion, target receptor affinity and furin cleavage act in concert to drive the nature and degree of infection in human COVID-19 disease

We have developed a mechanistic model of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV infection, exploring the relationship between the viral diffusion in the mucosa and viral affinity for the angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) target. Utilising the structural similarity of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 and a shared viral target receptor (ACE2), but a dramatic difference in upper or lower respiratory tract infectivity, we were able to generate insights into the linkage of mucosal diffusion and target receptor affinity in determining the pathophysiological pathways of these two viruses. Our analysis reveals that for SARS-CoV-2 the higher affinity of ACE2 binding, the faster and more complete the mucosal diffusion in its transport from the upper airway to the region of the ACE2 target on the epithelium. This diffusional process is essential for the presentation of this virus to the furin catalysed highly efficient entry and infection process in the upper respiratory tract epithelial cells. A failure of SARS-CoV to follow this path is associated with lower respiratory tract infection and decreased infectivity. Thus, our analysis supports the view that through tropism SARS-CoV-2 has evolved a highly efficient membrane entry process that can act in concert with a high binding affinity of this virus and its variants for its ACE2 which in turn promotes enhanced movement of the virus from airway to epithelium. In this way ongoing mutations yielding higher affinities of SARS-CoV-2 for the ACE2 target becomes the basis for higher upper respiratory tract infectivity and greater viral spread. It is concluded that SARS-CoV-2 is constrained in the extent of its activities by the fundamental laws of physics and thermodynamics. Laws that describe diffusion and molecular binding. Moreover it can be speculated that the very earliest contact of this virus with the human mucosa defines the pathogenesis of this infection.

XBB.1.5 Kraken cracked: Gibbs energies of binding and biosynthesis of the XBB.1.5 variant of SARS-CoV-2

The SARS-CoV-2 Hydra with many heads (variants) has been causing the COVID-19 pandemic for 3 years. The appearance of every new head (SARS-CoV-2 variant) causes a new pandemic wave. The last in the series is the XBB.1.5 "Kraken" variant. In the general public (social media) and in the scientific community (scientific journals), during the last several weeks since the variant has appeared, the question was raised of whether the infectivity of the new variant will be greater. This article attempts to provide the answer. Analysis of thermodynamic driving forces of binding and biosynthesis leads to the conclusion that infectivity of the XBB.1.5 variant could be increased to a certain extent. The pathogenicity of the XBB.1.5 variant seems to be unchanged compared to the other Omicron variants.

The SARS-CoV-2 Hydra, a tiny monster from the 21st century: Thermodynamics of the BA.5.2 and BF.7 variants

SARS-CoV-2 resembles the ancient mythical creature Hydra. Just like with the Hydra, when one head is cut, it is followed by appearance of two more heads, suppression of one SARS-CoV-2 variant causes appearance of newer variants. Unlike Hydra that grows identical heads, newer SARS-CoV-2 variants are usually more infective, which can be observed as time evolution of the virus at hand, which occurs through acquisition of mutations during time. The appearance of new variants is followed by appearance of new COVID-19 pandemic waves. With the appearance of new pandemic waves and determining of sequences, in the scientific community and general public the question is always raised of whether the new variant will be more virulent and more pathogenic. The two variants characterized in this paper, BA.5.2 and BF.7, have caused a pandemic wave during the late 2022. This paper gives full chemical and thermodynamic characterization of the BA.5.2 and BF.7 variants of SARS-CoV-2. Having in mind that Gibbs energy of binding and biosynthesis represent the driving forces for the viral life cycle, based on the calculated thermodynamic properties we can conclude that the newer variants are more infective than earlier ones, but that their pathogenicity has not changed.

Never ending story? Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 monitored through Gibbs energies of biosynthesis and antigen-receptor binding of Omicron BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB and XBB.1 variants

RNA viruses exhibit a great tendency to mutate. Mutations occur in the parts of the genome that encode the spike glycoprotein and less often in the rest of the genome. This is why Gibbs energy of binding changes more than that of biosynthesis. Starting from 2019, the wild type that was labeled Hu-1 has during the last 3 years evolved to produce several dozen new variants, as a consequence of mutations. Mutations cause changes in empirical formulas of new virus strains, which lead to change in thermodynamic properties of biosynthesis and binding. These changes cause changes in the rate of reactions of binding of virus antigen to the host cell receptor and the rate of virus multiplication in the host cell. Changes in thermodynamic and kinetic parameters lead to changes in biological parameters of infectivity and pathogenicity. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 has been evolving towards increase in infectivity and maintaining constant pathogenicity, or for some variants a slight decrease in pathogenicity. In the case of Omicron BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB and XBB.1 variants pathogenicity is identical as in the Omicron BA.2.75 variant. On the other hand, infectivity of the Omicron BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB and XBB.1 variants is greater than those of previous variants. This will most likely result in the phenomenon of asymmetric coinfection, that is circulation of several variants in the population, some being dominant.

Biothermodynamics of Viruses from Absolute Zero (1950) to Virothermodynamics (2022)

Biothermodynamics of viruses is among the youngest but most rapidly developing scientific disciplines. During the COVID-19 pandemic, it closely followed the results published by molecular biologists. Empirical formulas were published for 50 viruses and thermodynamic properties for multiple viruses and virus variants, including all variants of concern of SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, Ebola virus, Vaccinia and Monkeypox virus. A review of the development of biothermodynamics of viruses during the last several decades and intense development during the last 3 years is described in this paper.

Why doesn't Ebola virus cause pandemics like SARS-CoV-2?

Ebola virus is among the most dangerous, contagious and deadly etiological causes of viral diseases. However, Ebola virus has never extensively spread in human population and never have led to a pandemic. Why? The mechanistic biophysical model revealing the biothermodynamic background of virus-host interaction) could help us to understand pathogenesis of Ebola virus disease (earlier known as the Ebola hemorrhagic fever). In this paper for the first time the empirical formula, thermodynamic properties of biosynthesis (including the driving force of virus multiplication in the susceptible host), binding constant and thermodynamic properties of binding are reported. Thermodynamic data for Ebola virus were compared with data for SARS-CoV-2 to explain why SARS-CoV-2 has caused a pandemic, while Ebola remains on local epidemic level. The empirical formula of the Ebola virus was found to be CH_1.569O_0.3281N_0.2786P_0.00173S_0.00258. Standard Gibbs energy of biosynthesis of the Ebola virus nucleocapsid is -151.59 kJ/C-mol.

Strain wars 3: Differences in infectivity and pathogenicity between Delta and Omicron strains of SARS-CoV-2 can be explained by thermodynamic and kinetic parameters of binding and growth

In this paper, for the first time, empirical formulas have been reported of the Delta and Omicron strains of SARS-CoV-2. The empirical formula of the Delta strain entire virion was found to be CH1.6383O0.2844N0.2294P0.0064S0.0042, while its nucleocapsid has the formula CH1.5692O0.3431N0.3106P0.0060S0.0043. The empirical formula of the Omicron strain entire virion was found to be CH1.6404O0.2842N0.2299P0.0064S0.0038, while its nucleocapsid has the formula CH1.5734O0.3442N0.3122P0.0060S0.0033. Based on the empirical formulas, standard thermodynamic properties of formation and growth have been calculated and reported for the Delta and Omicron strains. Moreover, standard thermodynamic properties of binding have been reported for Wild type (Hu-1), Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicron strains. For all the strains, binding phenomenological coefficients and antigen-receptor (SGP-ACE2) binding rates have been determined and compared, which are proportional to infectivity. The results show that the binding rate of the Omicron strain is between 1.5 and 2.5 times greater than that of the Delta strain. The Omicron strain is characterized by a greater infectivity, based on the epidemiological data available in the literature. The increased infectivity was explained in this paper using Gibbs energy of binding. However, no indications exist for decreased pathogenicity of the Omicron strain. Pathogenicity is proportional to the virus multiplication rate, while Gibbs energies of multiplication are very similar for the Delta and Omicron strains. Thus, multiplication rate and pathogenicity are similar for the Delta and Omicron strains. The lower number of severe cases caused by the Omicron strain can be explained by increased number of immunized people. Immunization does not influence the possibility of occurrence of infection, but influences the rate of immune response, which is much more efficient in immunized people. This leads to prevention of more severe Omicron infection cases.

Strain wars 5: Gibbs energies of binding of BA.1 through BA.4 variants of SARS-CoV-2

This paper reports, for the first time, standard Gibbs energies of binding of the BA.1, BA.2, BA.3, BA.2.13, BA.2.12.1 and BA.4 Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2, to the Human ACE2 receptor. Variants BA.1 through BA.3 exhibit a trend of decreasing standard Gibbs energy of binding and hence increased infectivity. The BA.4 variant exhibits a less negative standard Gibbs energy of binding, but also more efficient evasion of the immune response. Therefore, it was concluded that all the analyzed strains evolve in accordance with expectations of the theory of evolution, albeit using different strategies.

Beyond COVID-19: Do biothermodynamic properties allow predicting the future evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants?

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many statistical and epidemiological studies have been published, trying to predict the future development of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, it would be beneficial to have a specific, mechanistic biophysical model, based on the driving forces of processes performed during virus-host interactions and fundamental laws of nature, allowing prediction of future evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses. In this paper, an attempt was made to predict the development of the pandemic, based on biothermodynamic parameters: Gibbs energy of binding and Gibbs energy of growth. Based on analysis of biothermodynamic parameters of various variants of SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV that appeared during evolution, an attempt was made to predict the future directions of evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and potential occurrence of new strains that could lead to new pandemic waves. Possible new mutations that could appear in the future could lead to changes in chemical composition, biothermodynamic properties (driving forces of new virus strains) and biological properties of SARS CoV-2 that represent a risk for humanity.

Omicron BA.2.75 Sublineage (Centaurus) Follows the Expectations of the Evolution Theory: Less Negative Gibbs Energy of Biosynthesis Indicates Decreased Pathogenicity

SARS-CoV-2 belongs to the group of RNA viruses with a pronounced tendency to mutate. Omicron BA.2.75 is a subvariant believed to be able to suppress the currently dominant BA.5 and cause a new winter wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Omicron BA.2.75 is characterized by a greater infectivity compared to earlier Omicron variants. However, the Gibbs energy of the biosynthesis of virus particles is slightly less negative compared to those of other variants. Thus, the multiplication rate of Omicron BA.2.75 is lower than that of other SARS-CoV-2 variants. This leads to slower accumulation of newly formed virions and less damage to host cells, indicating evolution of SARS-CoV-2 toward decreasing pathogenicity.

Omicron BA.2.75 Subvariant of SARS-CoV-2 Is Expected to Have the Greatest Infectivity Compared with the Competing BA.2 and BA.5, Due to Most Negative Gibbs Energy of Binding

Omicron BA.2.75 may become the next globally dominant strain of COVID-19 in 2022. The BA.2.75 sub-variant has acquired more mutations (9) in spike protein and other genes of SARS-CoV-2 than any other variant. Thus, its chemical composition and thermodynamic properties have changed compared with earlier variants. In this paper, the Gibbs energy of the binding and antigen-receptor binding rate was reported for the BA.2.75 variant. Gibbs energy of the binding of the Omicron BA.2.75 variant is more negative than that of the competing variants BA.2 and BA.5.

Strain wars 4 - Darwinian evolution through Gibbs' glasses: Gibbs energies of binding and growth explain evolution of SARS-CoV-2 from Hu-1 to BA.2

All processes in nature are driven by negative Gibbs energy. Gibbs energy is used by various viruses and their strains to hijack host cell metabolic machinery. The analysis was made by using the atom counting method to obtain elemental compositions and Gibbs energy of growth of the BA.2 strain of SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, Gibbs energy of binding was determined for the BA.2 strain. The properties of BA.2 were compared to those of Hu-1, Delta and Omicron strains. It is concluded that SARS-CoV-2 has evolved by making its Gibbs energy of binding more negative. Hence, it seems that the change in Gibbs energy of binding plays the major role in SARS-CoV-2 evolution. Therefore, Gibbs energy difference between various strains represents the possible mechanism of Darwinian evolution of viruses. In particular, a virus evolves through mutations, resulting in change in information content, elemental composition, increase in infectivity and decrease in pathogenicity.