Predictors of prognosis by quantitative assessment of coronary angiography, single photon emission computed tomography thallium imaging, and treadmill exercise testing

Outcome of patients with high-risk Duke treadmill score and normal myocardial perfusion imaging on spect

BACKGROUND

Annual mortality rate can range from <1% for patients with normal myocardial perfusion by SPECT to >5% based on a high-risk Duke treadmill score (DTS). Information on the prognosis of patients with the combination of HRDTS and normal SPECT is limited and is the purpose of this study.

METHODS

Data from a large nuclear cardiology registry (n = 17,972 patients) were reviewed. A total of 340 had HRDTS (score ≤ -11) while undergoing SPECT. Combined cardiovascular mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) and cardiovascular mortality alone were available in 310 patients at a mean follow-up of 4.01 ± 1.5 years.

RESULTS

The majority of the patients had abnormal SPECT (n = 270, 71%). The abnormal SPECT patients compared to the normal were older (65.6 vs 62.8 years of age; P = .025), more likely to have abnormal left ventricular ejection fraction (26.1% vs 0%; P < .0001), known coronary artery disease (CAD, 35.9% vs 7.8%; P < .0001) and lower DTS (-14.5 vs -13.2; P = .0006), Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated a significantly lower cardiovascular mortality (5.4% vs 0%, P = .02) and combined outcome of MI and cardiovascular mortality (15% vs 4.4%, P = .009) in patients with normal versus abnormal SPECT.

CONCLUSIONS

High-risk DTS is associated with abnormal perfusion SPECT in most patients, but nearly one-third of the patients had normal perfusion. Patients with a normal SPECT had a lower cardiovascular event rates.

Cardiovascular outcomes after pharmacologic stress myocardial perfusion imaging

BACKGROUND

While pharmacologic stress single photon emission computed tomography myocardial perfusion imaging (SPECT-MPI) is used for noninvasive evaluation of patients who are unable to perform treadmill exercise, its impact on net reclassification improvement (NRI) of prognosis is unknown.

METHODS

We evaluated the prognostic value of pharmacologic stress MPI for prediction of cardiovascular death or non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) within 1 year at a single-center, university-based laboratory. We examined continuous and categorical NRI of pharmacologic SPECT-MPI for prediction of outcomes beyond clinical factors alone.

RESULTS

Six thousand two hundred forty patients (median age 66 years [IQR 56-74], 3466 men) were studied and followed for 5963 person-years. SPECT-MPI variables associated with increased risk of cardiovascular death or non-fatal MI included summed stress score, stress ST-shift, and post-stress resting left ventricular ejection fraction ≤50%. Compared to a clinical model which included age, sex, cardiovascular disease, risk factors, and medications, model χ(2) (210.5 vs. 281.9, P < .001) and c-statistic (0.74 vs. 0.78, P < .001) were significantly increased by addition of SPECT-MPI predictors (summed stress score, stress ST-shift and stress resting left ventricular ejection fraction). SPECT-MPI predictors increased continuous NRI by 49.4% (P < .001), reclassifying 66.5% of patients as lower risk and 32.8% as higher risk of cardiovascular death or non-fatal MI. Addition of MPI predictors to clinical factors using risk categories, defined as <1%, 1% to 3%, and >3% annualized risk of cardiovascular death or non-fatal MI, yielded a 15.0% improvement in NRI (95% CI 7.6%-27.6%, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Pharmacologic stress MPI substantially improved net reclassification of cardiovascular death or MI risk beyond that afforded by clinical factors.

The Relationship between Glucose Tolerance and Severity of Coronary Artery Disease Using the Gensini Score

Consecutive patients (n = 235) with coronary ischemia were studied; 69 patients (29%) had diabetes. An oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was administered to the 166 patients without diabetes; 76 (46%) had normal glucose tolerance (group I = NGT), 68 (41%) had impaired glucose tolerance ([IGT] group II = IGT), and 22 (13%) had diabetic glucose tolerance (DGT). The DGT patients were added to the known diabetics forming (Group III; n = 91). Multivessel disease was significantly more prevalent in group III; 30 patients (43%) in group I, 32 patients (51%) in group II, and 57 patients (69%) in group III ( P = .002). Gensini scores were 43.20 ± 24.92 in group I, 54.22 ± 42.61 in group II, and 60.59 ± 38.21 in group III. ( P = .037) The severity of coronary artery disease is related to abnormal glucose tolerance. Patients with IGT could be neglected in terms of interventions focused to improve risk factors.

The Prognostic Value of Normal Exercise Myocardial Perfusion Imaging and Exercise Echocardiography

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this work was to determine the prognostic value of normal exercise myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) tests and exercise echocardiography tests, and to determine the prognostic value of these imaging modalities in women and men.

BACKGROUND

Exercise MPI and exercise echocardiography provide prognostic information that is useful in the risk stratification of patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD).

METHODS

We searched the PubMed, Cochrane, and DARE databases between January 1990 and May 2005, and reviewed bibliographies of articles obtained. We included prospective cohort studies of subjects who underwent exercise MPI or exercise echocardiography for known or suspected CAD, and provided data on primary outcomes of myocardial infarction (MI) and cardiac death with at least 3 months of follow-up. Secondary outcomes (unstable angina, revascularization procedures) were abstracted if provided. Studies performed exclusively in patients with CAD were excluded.

RESULTS

The negative predictive value (NPV) for MI and cardiac death was 98.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 98.5 to 99.0) over 36 months of follow-up for MPI, and 98.4% (95% CI 97.9 to 98.9) over 33 months for echocardiography. The corresponding annualized event rates were 0.45% per year for MPI and 0.54% per year for echocardiography. In subgroup analyses, annualized event rates were <1% for each MPI isotope, and were similar for women and men. For secondary events, MPI and echocardiography had annualized event rates of 1.25% and 0.95%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Both exercise MPI and exercise echocardiography have high NPVs for primary and secondary cardiac events. The prognostic utility of both modalities is similar for both men and women.

Systematic review of the prognostic effectiveness of SPECT myocardial perfusion scintigraphy in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease and following myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVES

In patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease (CAD), or following myocardial infarction (MI), assessing the degree of ischaemia is important from a prognostic and therapeutic point of view. Single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) is a non-invasive technique that allows the presence, location and extent of ischaemia to be determined. The aim of this systematic review was to assess the prognostic effectiveness of SPECT MPS.

METHODS

We sought prognostic studies involving SPECT, exercise tolerance testing (ETT) and/or coronary angiography (CA) in people with suspected or known CAD, or following MI. Outcomes included cardiac death, non-fatal MI and revascularization. We searched the following databases: MEDLINE, PREMEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS, Science Citation Index, the Cochrane Library, the Health Management Information Consortium and the Health Technology Assessment Database.

RESULTS

Twenty-one observational studies enrolling 53,762 people reported the general prognostic value of SPECT MPS. In multivariate analysis, SPECT MPS variables yielded both independent and incremental value to combinations of clinical, ETT and angiographic variables in predicting cardiac death or non-fatal MI. Three comparative studies reported lower revascularization rates following a SPECT MPS-CA strategy (6-21%) compared with direct CA (16-44%). Four observational studies enrolling 2106 people reported the prognostic value of SPECT for patients following MI. In multivariate analysis including clinical history, ETT, SPECT MPS and angiographic variables, strategies involving SPECT MPS provided independent and incremental prognostic performance in predicting future cardiac events.

CONCLUSIONS

SPECT MPS provides important additional information to that from ETT and/or CA that helps to risk-stratify patients with suspected or known CAD or following MI, enabling them to be managed more appropriately. Increasing the use of strategies involving SPECT MPS may identify lower risk patients for whom invasive CA might be avoided.

Long-term outcome of patients with intermediate-risk exercise electrocardiograms who do not have myocardial perfusion defects on radionuclide imaging

BACKGROUND

The appropriate management of patients with intermediate-risk Duke treadmill scores is not established. The purpose of this study was to determine the long-term risk of subsequent cardiovascular events in patients with an intermediate-risk treadmill score who do not have myocardial perfusion defects on radionuclide imaging.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The existing databases of the nuclear cardiology laboratories of 4 academic institutions were searched retrospectively. A total of 4649 patients were identified who had intermediate-risk Duke treadmill scores (-10 to 4), normal or near-normal exercise single photon-emission computed tomographic myocardial perfusion images using either thallium-201 or technetium-99m sestamibi, and no previous coronary revascularization. Follow-up was 95% complete. Cardiovascular survival was 99.8% at 1 year, 99.0% at 5 years, and 98.5% at 7 years. Cardiac survival free of myocardial infarction was similarly high at 96.6% at 7 years. Cardiac survival free of myocardial infarction or revascularization was 87.1% at 7 years. Near-normal scans and cardiac enlargement were independent predictors of time to cardiac death. Seven-year cardiac survival was still high at 97.0% in the 357 patients with near-normal scans and normal cardiac size and somewhat lower, at 89.0%, in the 167 patients with cardiac enlargement.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with an intermediate-risk treadmill score but with normal or near-normal exercise myocardial perfusion images and normal cardiac sizes are at low risk for subsequent cardiac death and can be safely managed medically until their symptoms warrant revascularization. The appropriate management of patients with cardiac enlargement will remain a matter of clinical judgment.

The treadmill test--where to stop and what does it mean?

The prognostic utility of an exercise ECG test depends upon having an adequate workload to stress the cardiac system. A negative stress test, in which there are no adverse clinical or ECG findings, and in which an adequate workload is achieved, stratifies patients into a low-risk group. The 1997 American Heart Association guidelines imply that any index of workload--heart rate, rate-pressure product, or exercise duration in multiples of resting O2 consumption (METS)--could be used to indicate that adequate stress was achieved. However, while there is considerable evidence supporting the use of METS as a strong independent prognostic variable, there is less support for the use of rate-pressure product or heart rate. Indeed, there is evidence that a high heart rate at a low workload carries an adverse prognosis. Further research is needed to identify the number of METS achieved that would define an adequate workload. In the meantime, a review of the literature suggests that 7 to 10 METS is a reasonable ballpark figure of the minimum workload in patients with a negative stress test that would imply a favorable outcome.

Evaluation of exercise thallium scintigraphy versus exercise electrocardiography in predicting survival outcomes and morbid cardiac events in patients with single- and double-vessel disease. Findings from the Angioplasty Compared to Medicine (ACME) Study

OBJECTIVES

We sought to evaluate the prognostic ability of cardiac exercise stress tests in predicting cardiac mortality and morbidity in a low risk group of patients with established coronary artery disease (CAD).

BACKGROUND

Although previous studies have demonstrated the superior value of stress nuclear cardiac scintigraphy in the prognosis of patients with CAD, none of these studies have focused on patients with a proven angiographic low risk profile (i.e., single- and double-vessel CAD).

METHODS

Three hundred twenty-eight patients with documented single- and double-vessel disease were treated by random assignment to percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty or medical therapy in the Angioplasty Compared to Medicine (ACME) trial. Six months after randomization, maximal symptom-limited exercise tests were performed with electrocardiography (n = 300) and thallium scintigraphy (n = 270). Patients were followed up for a minimum of 5 years thereafter.

RESULTS

A reversible thallium perfusion deficit documented after 6 months of either therapy was associated with an adverse mortality outcome (18% mortality rate with a reversible thallium perfusion defect and 8% mortality rate with no reversible thallium perfusion deficit, p = 0.02). Moreover, an important mortality gradient was demonstrated in relation to the number of reperfusing defects (0 = 7%, 1 to 2 = 15%, >3 = 20%, p = 0.04). Exercise electrocardiography did not predict this mortality outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

A reversible thallium perfusion deficit demonstrated 6 months after medical therapy or coronary angioplasty is a valuable prognostic marker in patients with angiographically documented single- and double-vessel disease and is superior to exercise electrocardiography in this regard.